As he closes in on his 43rd birthday, Braves knuckler R.A. Dickey has shown no signs of slowing down. He has settled in as an average starter, sure, but he’s not your average “average starter,” either.
Dickey is no longer close to being the Cy Young winner he was in 2012. Since then, though, he has emerged as the game’s preeminent provider of league-average innings. From 2013 through the present, Dickey has averaged 200 frames annually. And he has not strayed more than five percentage points in either direction from the mean ERA in any of those years.
That’s what Atlanta thought it was signing up for when it inked the Tennessee native to a one-year, $7.5MM deal with a $8MM club option ($500K buyout) for 2018. And that’s just what the club got. Until a few rough outings in September, Dickey was allowing less than four earned per nine; now, though, he’s right back at a 4.41 ERA through 175 1/3 frames on the year — nearly identical to his results last year and good for a 101 ERA-. Dickey carries 6.6 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 on the season, right in line with his recent work.
All told, it seems mostly reasonable to anticipate that Dickey will produce similar results next year. Fielding-independent pitching metrics have long suggested good fortune, but Dickey has consistently outperformed them and generated low batting averages on balls in play. It doesn’t take much imagination to view him as an outlier whose value isn’t appropriate measured by those metrics and who can also be expected to defy aging curves.
Dickey can be retained for the same rate of pay. So, do the Braves still want and need him?
Atlanta has already parted with the two other veterans it acquired last winter, Jaime Garcia and Bartolo Colon, though both were set for free agency regardless. The team probably has identified three younger starters to carry in the rotation next year, with Sean Newcomb joining holdovers Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz. None of that trio has been consistently excellent, though all have had their moments and ought to retain their roles. (Newcomb owns the best ERA of the bunch at 4.32, but he has only been asked/able to throw 89 2/3 innings over 17 starts.) Otherwise, the Braves could give a bigger opportunity to Lucas Sims or hope that Max Fried and/or Luiz Gohara win jobs in camp.
There are other arms coming behind this group, too, and Atlanta is rumored yet again to be eyeing more established but still-controllable starters on the trade market. In honesty, though, the club needs reliable innings — if for no other reason than to avoid a situation where the club is forced either to press its young arms too hard or instead find marginal big leaguers to plug any rotation gaps that may arise (as they are wont to do). If the organization really hopes to move toward true contention, then it’s hard to imagine it relying on what’s available in-house.
While other short-term free agent targets may offer more upside, even the best bounceback targets are just that — pitchers with talent but injury or other questions that weigh down their value and appeal. If the Braves prefer to roll the dice, they can send Dickey packing and try their luck on someone else. Or, perhaps, they can bid adieu to the grizzled veteran and aim much higher in trade and/or free agency — though the roster arguably isn’t ready enough for the club to take the kinds of long-term financial risks that led to the most recent rebuild.
Ultimately, there are some pretty compelling reasons for Atlanta to retain the steady veteran. But it’s not quite a slam dunk, with some imaginable scenarios in which the team might simply prefer to take a different course. Some may consider the possibility that the Braves could pick up the option and trade Dickey; while that’s not out of the question, it seems unlikely a team would do that with a veteran whose contract doesn’t carry significant surplus value and who signed with that team due in no small part to geographical considerations. So, that option won’t be broken out in the poll.
How do you think the Braves ought to proceed? (Link for app users.)
Yes, Foltynewicz has been struggling for a while but he’s still really good, Teheran has had an off year but he’s also good, the rotation, especially Newcomb and Gohara, need keep advancing in their development because they both have high ceilings, if anything, Dickey could get traded to a team needy for innings so Sims or another youngster gets a chance.
In regards to Teheran, don’t you mean off years? Plural?
Would you say that a 3.21 ERA is indicative of a down year? That’s where he was in 2016.
….and a 4.04 ERA in 2015. Everyone needs to stop drinking the Braves’ kool aid that Julio is a ace or even a #2 starter.
well I think he have proven he can be a #2. and unfortunately, he’s proven that he’s an ace on this staff. I say unfortunately because I wish 1 braves pitcher could have shown up this year and shown that they are the clear cut ace of the staff… but that hasn’t happened….
He often pitches like #2, if you know what I mean….
What makes Foltynewicz “really good”?
god, shut it and put some valid input in a conversation for once instead of trolling chesteraarthur. The guy has shown a lot of flashes of being a good pitcher. I think that’s what he’s implying. I don’t think he meaning he’s truly really good right now. (kinda hard to do when you say he’s struggling for a while). It’s the internet… people don’t have the time in the day to put a perfect paragraphs to explain everything so that your little heart is satisfied by the overall meaning of it’s context. With that said, please STOP TROLLING!
Asking how a pitcher who has shown nothing but mediocrity can be considered “really good” is not trolling. This has absolutely nothing to do with “perfect paragraphs”. This constant over rating of braves players isn’t about grammar. Saying a player is “really good” who simply hasn’t shown that is just being blatantly wrong. I’m sorry if you think that pointing out how people are wrong, or poorly characterizing a player is “trolling”, but tough!
Don’t worry Chester. Folty has never had an ERA plus above 100 or a fip below 4.00. We know what you mean, and that is definitely not trolling.
I’ve seen many trolls here. They have no shame.
Chester’s not a troll. Quite the opposite.
If you’re going to call someone “pretty good” and he hasn’t shown it, Chester will call you out on that bias, even if you mean well. Intelligent MLB debates is what this site’s all about, and I think Chester embodies that. (he doesn’t discriminate against specific teams fan-bases like some people, who shall remain nameless)
If nmendoza said “shown flashes” of being good, I don’t think Chester replies, but just saying someone is ‘struggling for a while’ ‘but still good’ is an oxymoron in itself and I’d be curious to know what makes him good.
Prove Chester wrong. I’m looking at the guy now and here are his 2017 stats. 28GS, 4.79 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 169H allowed in 154IP. .277BAA
Here are his career stats (382.2IP) (65GS, 4.87 ERA, 4.49FIP 4.48xfip 1.46WHIP, .282 BAA)
I have nothing against Braves fans. They have an impressive, loyal fan-base, probably top-5 in MLB, and a young team with a bright future, but I think Chester brings a valid question.
I’ve never seen Foltynewicz play. I just like hearing inside reports, you can only get from teams’ fanbases, and I’d love to know why Braves fans think he’s any good or has shown potential to be good.
Because purely looking at the stats, they say otherwise.
Folty has really good stuff. His downfall is his mental fortitude- when he has an off night, as all pitchers will, he lets his emotions get the best of him. When and if he matures out of that will determine if he will reach his potential.
Personally.. I say use the option….. see how he does in spring…. if Fried… Sims… or Gohara performs better in spring… then Dickey could easily settle into a long relief role.. with occasionally having s spot start
Easy yes imo
The Braves could use the stability that RA can provide, plus the innings.
And he does provide veterans presents!!
The rookies don’t get any presents? Just the veterans? that’s no fair..
Also what kinda presents we talking here? Watches? Art work? Gift certificates?
If it’s gift certificates, decline the option.
Does he bring enough for everyone?
Only the veterans
Have Dickey as the workhorse trade Teheran. Feel out each of the roomies til one sticks and if your serious about making a trade or free agent signing it further gives you reason to think Julio is expendable.
The Braves can’t hit. They have Freddie Freeman and a prospect named Ronald Acuna.
That’s it. Their lineup has old guys in it. I see 50 year old guys out running in the morning who run better than Matt Kemp.
Who will the Braves use their first round pick on next year? I don’t know his name but he’s going to be a pitcher. You can bet the house on that.
I’d say Ender can hit, being in the top 5 in MLB in hits.
I’d say Ozzie Albies has hit thus far.
I’d say Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki can hit.
When you resort to Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki as your argument that your offense isn’t that bad, your offense is that bad.
(I do recognize that both have had solid years, but at the end of the day Kurt Suzuki is still Kurt Suzuki)
Dude, Suzuki and Flowers were by design part time catchers. They’ve gone on to hit 26 homers, 89 RBI’s, and slash .276/.313/.470…at $4.5 mil.
Do we need to list the worse catcher contracts in baseball?
Contracts mean nothing when it comes to production. 35 HRs from a 500k player is the same as a 30M player.
Either way, expecting them to repeat is unlikely
Suzuki won’t be a Brave next year, so whether or not he repeats doesn’t really matter to the Braves.
Flowers has put up decent numbers the past two years after changing his swing at the advice of the Braves hitting coaches, so repeating next year isn’t that much of a stretch of the imagination.
You do realize there is a pretty big difference in his offensive output even between 16 and 17 right (the years you claim his swing has changed)?
How is there? His years have been almost identical?
We mustn’t forget Markakis, Camargo, L.Adams, Garcia, Santana, Ruiz and a few sleepers that will be up next season. Ron Acuna could be the LF-RF next year. The big thing is good PITCHING, a must to be winners.
RE: Bravesfan1993
The Braves will continue to draft pitching because they spend the bulk of their international bonus pool money on position players. It’s a solid strategy that will be paying off soon.
I love Knuckle Ball pitchers. Such a rarity in today’s game. I hope Dickey’s option get’s exercised and he passes on his knowledge to breed new Knuckle ball pitchers out of ATL’s young starters, maybe even positional players.
His stats this season so far this season: 29GS, 4..41 ERA, 175.1 IP, 1.43 WHIP, 67BB 128SO
Considering how Atlanta likes pitchers who have already had one TJ surgery, having a knuckleball pitcher on staff may be a good thing.
Unfortunately, yes. They need the stability. Next year will be a big prove it year for the young pitchers and hopefully some will start separating themselves but in the mean time they need a guy like Dickey to fill in the cracks
The wildcard really is Dickey himself. He hasn’t decided if he wants another year or not. He recently said it would be a family decision.
This is what most people don’t understand..It isn’t entirely up to the Braves…Dickey may retire..it’s a very realistic option, yet most overlook it.
Dickey has been surprisingly good this year
Where’s the surprise? That a 43 year old can do what a 42 year old version of himself, as the versions at 42, 40, and 39, did consistently?
… yeah
I’d say the only way it makes sense to decline it if is if the front office feels very confident in their ability to add a big arm or even 2 to their rotation.
I agree. The Braves first priority should be to acquire a front line starter via free agency or trade. If that fails, then re-sign Dickey (if he doesn’t decide to retire)
RA Dickey shows no signs of slowing down… heck, his average fastball is about 1.5 MPH faster than it has been the last several years!
Fastball velocity isn’t as important for a player who uses it as a secondary pitch like RA
Pretty sure he was kidding
Absolutely. Not too many starters that can go 200 innings per season anymore.
$8 million for a starting pitcher who consistently throws 200 IP is like buying an iPhone 6 for $50. It might be a little older than the 7 or 8, but it gets the job done and compared to the rest of th market, its a steal.
I like the comparison!
I’m on the yes train (hopefully RA is too). They really need those innings, even if another year of aging makes him slightly worse. If they do fill out the rotation with prospects then there’s a very real chance that at least 2 (or 3!) out of every 5 starts won’t make it out of the 6th inning, and that bullpen probably won’t be good enough to take on that kind of workload without disastrous results.
Freeman, Ozzie and Ender are a good to great start to a rebuilding team. Acuna is on the way also and can slot in.
This is a Ntl League team here everyone and not an AL or a fantasy team.
As long as you can slot in your top 5 spots in the order and have decent SP you can compete.
Dickey isnt really “decent.” Hes just good to not waste your bullpen
That’s why the Orioles are still in the race, right?
I’m in the minority here but I’ll say no. Obviously, the circumstances are different for R.A. than for other pitchers, but he is going to be 43 years old, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get slightly – worse next season, with an ERA- at like 105-108. Braves still don’t seem ready to compete, so I’m not sure I see the upside. I think they would be an interesting candidate to decline the option and sign Pineda to a 2 year deal at lower base salaries (essentially what the Rays did with Eovaldi) and bring in some minor-league free agent to cover the lost innings this season while continuing to get their prospects work at the highest levels. Next off-season, they should be in a position to start buying again
With Dickey, no question. In today’s game, competitive inning eaters have good value. At worst, he can get traded down the road.
Every team needs ample pitching depth. Injuries (plural) are bound to occur.
On top of that, Dickey fits what the Braves need in veteran pitching leadership for their young pitchers. He can eat innings towards the back of a rotation on a relatively cheap deal.
This is a no brainer. League average starter and veteran presence for only 7.5? You’d have to be taking some serious stupid pills to not exercise the option,
Trade Julio while you can get something for him. Very overrated
Why would you trade him? Even if he is #3, he is still a nice piece on a cheap contract.
i say exercise the option so long as he’s on board to come back… but 1 exception. He has to be willing to move to bullpen for LR if/when the young pitchers start taking over the rotation.
I was told by a braves fan in another article that they would not be paying Dickey next season, so I guess that answers that /s
Better things on this earth to do than troll braves fans chester. Plus, it’s hard to listen to a fool who clearly knows very little about baseball. You’re the same guy that didn’t know the numerical values to each position on a baseball field. that’s basic baseball sir.
League average at that price id jump on it. Teams hoping for better through free agency usually end up with a really bad contract and that just doesn’t fit the Braves plans. One year deal gives them flexibility going forward. If he decides to pitch I think he bridges the gap for the Braves quite nicely
Based on the premise that 1 WAR is worth $7MM in contracts then Dickey’s 1.7 WAR at $8MM is worth it.