After a second consecutive 68-94 season, the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuilding process still has no clear end in sight. Complicating things further for the organization are the facts that they already owe $68.7MM in guaranteed contracts to five players for the 2018 season, and $56.6MM to four players in 2019. Although the organization has shown a willingness to spend in the past, they aren’t exactly a large-market payroll juggernaut, so it stands to reason that the Cincinnati front office is unlikely to spend big across the next two seasons in order to compete for a pennant amidst a highly competitive NL Central division.
Enter Billy Hamilton. A free agent at the end of the 2019 season, the speed demon will probably reach the open market before October baseball returns to Cincinnati. It makes perfect sense, then, that the Reds might seek to explore the trade market for their fleet-footed center fielder.
The 27-year old’s value is largely tied up in his legs. Statcast’s sprint speed leaderboard ranks Hamilton as the second-fastest sprinter in the game (behind Minnesota’s Byron Buxton), while Fangraphs rated his defense third-best among qualifying center fielders in 2017. He’s stolen at least 56 bases in each of his four full seasons at the major league level, and has routinely created runs by through aggressive base running.
The well-known achilles heel of Hamilton’s game has always been his terrible offensive output. Despite tremendous speed down the first base line, Hamilton owns a putrid career .248/.298/.338 batting line across 2,180 plate appearances at the major league level, good for a 71 wRC+ since his promotion in September of 2013.
So, when exploring potential suitors for Hamilton, it makes the most sense to start with teams that have a dire need for a defensive upgrade in center field. It’s also worth noting that Hamilton’s base running skills aren’t as useful to teams that rely heavily on the home run ball, such as the Rays, Athletics and Yankees.
With the above factors in mind, the Giants could be a particularly good match. AT&T Park’s outfield is particularly large, making it difficult for their hitters to put runs on the board via the long ball. Hamilton’s base running prowess would surely be a great asset to a team that finished dead last in baseball with 128 homers, but ranked 8th-best in contact rate. What’s more, San Francisco center fielders ranked as the third-worst defensive group in all of baseball via Fangraphs’ defensive metric. Hamilton would provide a considerable upgrade over that of the aging Denard Span.
Similarly, the Dodgers’ pitching staff could benefit from having Hamilton manning center field in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium, with Chris Taylor sliding to second base. The Royals could be on the lookout for a center field option if they don’t retain Lorenzo Cain. Hamilton could provide an overall upgrade for the Brewers over the strikeout-plagued Keon Broxton, though they’re more likely to see what they have in Lewis Brinson before looking to external options.
Though Hamilton’s lifetime fWAR of 10.6 pegs him as only a slightly above-average player for his major league career, his skill set is unique. He could fill a hole for many major league clubs, and there’s a good chance he could help fortify the Reds’ farm system while they continue to rebuild.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Long Island Ducks?
Im sure the Long Island Ducks would love to have almost 60 stolen bases. Unfortunately for them, I think plenty of MLB teams would too.
.298 OBP…..worthless
.90 ISO…..worthless
So what is Billy Hamilton?
WORTHLESS
I don’t know that the Ducks would want him. There was a question mark at the end.
Worthless? Really?
According to BR he was worth 1.0 WAR ($8,000,000 mv) in 2017 and 2.8 WAR ($22,400,000) in 2016.
Fangraphs had him at 1.2 in ’17 and 3.1 in ’16.
Nah, but in all seriousness, he’s not bringing back a crazy return, but there would definitely be interest.
but defense and baserunning matter as well lol. he’s not Superstar but he’s a fine option in center field and at the very least a great 4th outfielder and pinch runner
When it comes to trying to figure out a player’s value, some people act as if a player’s offensive output, particularly their power stats, are all that truly matter..
There are several factors that add up to understand a players true value. Their collective power numbers and their ability to get on base are two of those factors, but there are many more ways a player can add value to a team.
Hamilton’s value comes from his ability to run the bases, steal bases, and his defensive range and overall his strong defensive play at a premium position.
I don’t see Hamilton as anything more than as an ideal #9 hitter on an AL team, while playing and providing excellent defense in CF..Occassionally, he could be used as a defensive replacement, or he could be used as a pinch runner as well, which does indeed hold its own value…
He isn’t likely to command very much on the trade market, but Hamilton is far from worthless, even if he doesn’t ever figure out how to get on base more or hut for a higher average.
I’d say he clearly needs to work with a different hitting coach, and if he can make some adjustments and raise his obp, then it would make a WORLD of difference, as to how he’s seen, from an overall perspective…
I’ll let you in on a little secret – defense and baserunning matter. Let that settle in.
” a great 4th outfielder and pinch runner”
That’s the only place for Hamilton in MLB and he’ll need to improve his base stealing success and aggressiveness as well as his on base ability coming off the bench to survive in that role.
” defense and baserunning matter. Let that settle in.”
Not the way you think it does.
Clearly you undervalue it… Go play Ryan Howard in CF, Ruiz in LF and Delmon Young in RF then tell me defense doesn’t matter. Saving a RBI double in a gap is pretty much the same as hitting an RBI double yourself.
Google: Straw Man Argument
Google : troll
Hamilton would a great pickup for the Pirates. The last time I looked, his career slash line vs. Pittsburgh was .320/.365/.376. Compare that with .243/.308/.370 vs. the other division teams and .231/.277/.313 vs. all other MLB teams. And his stats vs. the Pirates don’t indicate how much of them come at crucial times in games. Picking him up so they wouldn’t have to play him would be worth another five wins for the Bucs!
That play AGAINST him!!
Lmmfao
If he could consenting hit for average and takes his pitches , he’s a threat on the base paths, who could hit around 80-100 stolen bases a year. Similar to a young Carl Crawford or bj upton
Is he really worth that much? He’s a nice piece, but what’s he gonna bring back?
Making such a strong statement about the Reds having $68.7 million in guaranteed salary to 5 players seems like a bit of a fallacy when you don’t mention the fact that Joey Votto alone takes up $25 million of that total.. Subtract his salary and you get $43.7 million for 4 players which seems about normal for all teams including the penny pinchers like the Rays and A’s.. Votto’s $25 million in 2019 is almost half of the $56.6 million you have pointed out. Even rebuilding clubs will usually have at least one large albatross contract weighing them down..
To answer your question: I would suggest the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters as a solid destination for Hamilton.. He seems like the type of position player that would excel in Japan..
Interesting perspective for sure. But why are we subtracting Joey Votto’s salary from their payroll?
Just to gain perspective on what the payroll REALLY looks like.
$$$ committed to # of players is misleading when one player takes up 36% of it. The Brewers had a TOTAL payroll of $63 Million in ’17…..for 25 players. Braun took up $19 Million of that (30%). If they trade Braun away and play Brinson instead, their payroll drops to about $45 Million for 25 guys.
Pretty sure taking away the highest paid player does not give you more accurate look at “what the payroll REALLY looks like”
I understand the line of thinking, but the Reds can’t trade Joey Votto; he has a full no-trade clause in his contract and has explicitly stated he wants to continue to play in Cincinnati.
Cincinnati doesn’t have much wiggle room in their payroll because of the money they already owe. The amount of guaranteed dollars on the books is very much what the payroll really looks like.
Yeah this is similar to the logic of ignoring when a player has been really bad to see what their “actual talent” is.
Especially when you’d have to eat 20+ million for anyone to take braun’s contract on.
Albatross? That’s an interesting term to use for the best hitter in baseball.
The guy has a career OBP under .300. If a speedster is going to be valuable in a lineup he needs to get on base. So if I was a GM, I’d offer a bat and a groundskeeper who naps more than he works.
The way I see it, Ben Revere has been traded three times. Once for Trevor May and Vance Worley, once for Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado an once for Drew Storen.
Hamilton has a similar skill set but more speed. I would imagine a trade for Hamilton would be comparable to a Revere deal, but a bit more based on the fact that his stolen base numbers are considerably better.
He seems like a piece DIPoto would love. I could see them pursuing him with Dyson leaving in free agency.
Hamilton is a much better Defender and base Steeler than Revere. but Revere also hit around .300 most years.
You can say that again
Hamilton is a much better Defender and base Steeler than Revere. but Revere also hit around . 300 most years.
I could see Dipoto adding him since they need a center fielder with speed.
The Bermuda Triangle of MLB…God no
Revere’s a good starting point I think but Revere – when the Twins moved him – had a lot more years of control left and was able to get on base a bit. His age 24 season with MN he hit .294 w/ a .333 OBP. and stole 40 bases. He was a solid 2.5 WAR guy. Hamilton is older, less control and a bigger minus offensively. But his defense and base running are much better.
I don’t think he’d cost as much as May and Worley. I certainly wouldn’t give up a top 100 type for him. Maybe someone in an orgs top 15 or so.
Astros or Orioles? Two teams with good offenses and bad centerfield defense that maybe don’t want a bad hitter in their lineup but can live with it by hitting him 9th and getting elite defense.in centerfield.
Isn’t springer in center? And don’t they have Marisnick for the defensive OF/spot start role?
The Orioles need to aggressively pursue a trade for Hamilton. He could either bat lead off and push Beckham down in the order or bat 9th so if he gets on they would have sped in front of the core hitters. Plus he is a much better CFer than Jones so this could push Jones to a corner OF spot. Even though he’s not much of a hitter, he would be a huge asset to the O’s.
absolutely not a leadoff hitter but I like him 9th
Just a thought cause of his speed. Get him on then have Schoop, Machado and other sluggers behind him.
You want guys with obp skills in front of those guys, not a guy who struggles to get over .300
Billy Hamilton would be more of the same offensively for orioles. Obviously we have no speed and he’d give us a hell of a lot of that. but those SBS aren’t any different than a guy like Davis or trumbo hitting HRs and doubles when your obp is below 300. I could see the orioles being interested but it’s just another horrible obp guy in a lineup starved for base runners. The defense would be welcome though.
Oakland Athletics
The giants need more offense but if we could offload Strickland or osich in the deal it would be a roster upgrade, he would at least be an upgrade over gorkys Hernandez who was essentially the backup cf/5th of if nothing else
.
Wonder if the Reds would do Hamilton for Strickland straight up? I’d be into that.
Giants will go after Billy Hamilton and Giancarlo Staton to upgrade CF and RF. Pence and Span can go platoon LF. Trade Parker and Mac Williamson try to get what they can for them or just throw them in either trade. Reds got Duvall from us they might bite on another OF from Giants. Would definitely be an upgrade over this year’s OF.
Oh and trade Strickland and Law.
Giants are NOT getting Big G. He’s a West Coast Guy, but he wants to go somewhere that he can win a ring….soon. (He’s probably on the phone to his buddies with the Dodgers….planting a seed and watering it daily)
Full No-Trade clause puts HIM in the Driver’s Seat.
He’s in the drivers seat as far as where he doesn’t want to go.
But the Dodgers would be paying roughly $45MM/yr to get him. Is that something they’re willing to do on top of giving up Vurdugo+?
The Mets are going to be desperate for a solid OF, especially a CF. Who knows if Conforto will even be ready for opening day……???
There’s not a lot down on the farm, but maybe they could work something out?
buxton and hamiltion in the same outfield that would be fun to watch
bux and Hamilton is all a team would need in the outfield. extra infielder all game
It would probably just be boring because every play they make would look routine.
Trader Jerry will strike again
I’d be ok with this, as long as he doesn’t give up too much. He seems like the type of player he would target.
There isn’t much left to trade in Seattle. But with the ballpark and his speed he could fit in a Seattle. My fear is that Safeco would turn him into a 188 hitter. But maybe Edgar could weave some magic into his hitting
teams with huge center field acreage would benefit from Billy’s range. Citi Field would be a great fit and he could help the Mets tremendously even if only used as a fourth outfield option/pinch hit/pinch runner.
The Mets have Juan Lagares if they want to improve their defense in CF. The man has a gold glove and is already on the roster.
Lagares is 29 next year, can’t hit, is often hurt, and can’t steal bases. He is a great fielder but Citi Field’s expansive CF gives him a lot opportunities to shine. If I were king for the day, I’d still keep him, bring in Billy Hamilton, trade Cespedes to an AL team looking for a corner outfielder with DH potential, and try to build a speed and defense first small ball team. Because, just because. That’s the baseball I like to watch.
I’m with you. Small ball is way more fun than wading through strikeouts waiting for dingers.
The rangers have a huge need for a plus defensive center fielder. JD has been pretty interested in Hamilton in the past too, wouldn’t shock me to see them work something out to get him in Texas
How do you know he’s been interested?
There have been reports… I want to say on this website actually
Then the Rangers should not have left Odubel Herrera unprotected in the Rule 5.
Can’t steal first base.
Joey, THAT is all that the people need to know.
If the Rockies can’t extend Charlie Blackmon long term or want to flip him for pitching, I would love for Billy Hamilton to patrol center in Coors. Not only would his defense be great, but with his speed in that stadium, he would get 30-40 triples a year.
Coors Field is the best triples park in MLB but Hamilton could never reach 30 triples. He hits worse than some pitchers.
If he is like most players that leave Cincinnati then he will turn into an all star!
That’s what happens to most people who leave Seattle too
So Ken Griffey Jr goes from Seattle—where everyone who leaves becomes an all-star—to Cincinnati—where everyone who leaves becomes an all-star.
I’m not sure where this leaves us.
It would be interesting to see if working with another hitting coach could improve Hamilton’s skills or philosophy at the plate of if he’s reached his ceiling as a hitter. I think that trading for Hamilton is a gamble that a lot of teams would make.
Anybody who thinks Hamilton still needs to be viewed as having offensive potential because he runs fast needs a reality check. He doesn’t work pitchers for walks. He doesn’t hit for average. He is never going to be an offensive threat from the top of a lineup. The only team who should be interested in Hamilton is the team who needs solid defense in CF and already has a potent lineup that it can basically punt one batter and not worry about things. Most likely, that means he ends up in the AL where Hamilton’s inefficiencies as a batter are covered by the DH.
Anyone who thinks you can “punt” a spot in the lineup doesn’t understand baseball.
I’m not saying it’s the best idea but haven’t the Reds been doing that for the last few years with Hamilton in the lineup? Most teams have dead spots in the lineup that they’re willing to live with because the player in question provides excellent defense or they simply don’t have an alternative at that point in time.
“haven’t the Reds been doing that for the last few years with Hamilton “”
You think the Reds have been a good MLB team while doing this?
It’s not the offense that’s the problem in Cincinnati. However I agree, he is a dead spot, and should be only a 4th OF, defensive sub, and pinch runner. Every team could use that guy on their bench. Hopefully the Reds realize that to.
Can’t believe the Brewers were even brought up in the article. Brett Phillips was playing everyday in CF down the stretch and playing well. Brinson is their number one prospect.and was their minor league player of the year. Between those two, they have CF covered pretty well for years.
Hamilton to the Cubs for a package based around Almora makes a lot of sense given the direction of each club.
He’s Willy Taveras 2.0
Indians plz
The only Billy Hamilton worth acquiring has been deceased for over 75 years.
Hamilton can’t hit water from a boat. I change the channel when he hits because it’s painful to watch.
Trade him to the US Olympic Track Team.
Has anyone tried shortening his swing?
“Despite tremendous speed down the first base line, Hamilton owns a putrid career .248/.298/.338 batting line”. Despite?!?!? I’d say “because of” instead. Without his blazing speed he’s closer to the Mendoza line
Keep in mind that our last rebuilding took 11 to 15 years depending on how you look at it, I think we’re about on pace for our normal rebuild. Once all these guys get traded away for prospects to join the 2017 draft class 6 or so years from now then maybe we can make the playoffs again. Sigh.
We should be better next year, we’ve found 7 guys who actually could be competent MLB starters, if enough could be healthy then maybe we can get over .500, but I wouldn’t count on much more than that. If we have 5 starting pitchers hurt to start the year then another 90 losses are in order. They should really spend a little more money this offseason just to give us a chance before we trade Billy and Scooter but they’ve already indicated they won’t spend much. I expect another Feldman and Storen type. Yay.
I offer up to the Reds Jim Johnson Christian Pache Travis Demeritte Sean Newcomb Nick Markakis for both Hamilton and Duvall. Now I would offer this up if I was the Braves GM only if Kemp is traded and the Reds willing to take Markakis. Now Kakes can be good for the Reds for maybe a bench bat and veteran leadership. The Reds are getting a bench bat and decent fill in for corner of/DH.
He looks so sad in this picture
Joc Pederson for Hamilton?
Hamilton looks like a Royals type, but we have next to nothing to offer for him. And with almost no hitters left on the team I’m not sure how wise it would be to trade for a .240 hitting CF. But hell, why not?