The Orioles have reached out to impending free agents Chris Tillman and Wade Miley to explore the possibility of retaining them on incentive-laden one-year contracts, reports Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko wrote earlier this morning that such an agreement with Miley seems unlikely and suggests that their talks may not have been especially recent. Talks with each free-agent-to-be are characterized as “preliminary” by Encina, if not “procedural.” Still, the Orioles need to add at least two arms this offseason, so even early talks with a pair of potentially outgoing rotation members are at least notable.
Tillman, 30 next April, has been a mainstay in the Baltimore rotation since 2013 but battled shoulder troubles en route to the worst performance of his career in 2017. Tillman’s season didn’t get started until mid-May after he was slowed by a bout of shoulder bursitis, and his subsequent struggles at one point cost him his spot in the Orioles’ struggling rotation. Overall, in 19 starts and five relief appearances, Tillman limped to a 7.84 ERA with a career-low 6.1 K/9 against a 4.9 BB/9 mark that rated as the second worst of his career.
Miley, 31 in two weeks, has a $12MM club option on his contract, though Baltimore is widely expected to instead pay a $500K buyout after a dismal 2017 campaign. The southpaw did notch the second-best K/9 mark of his career (8.12), but his 5.32 BB/9 was easily a career-worst. Miley’s HR/9 rate of 1.43 was also the highest of his career. Given the rapid ascent of his walk and home-run rates, as well as the 5.61 ERA he posted in 157 1/3 innings, it’s hardly a surprise that the O’s aren’t expected to pay that $11.5MM difference between his option and buyout to retain him.
MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko has recently reported that Miley would prefer a return to the National League, and Encina implies as much as well, calling a reunion with Tillman more likely than one with Miley. That said, it still strikes me as perhaps unlikely that Tillman would return on a deal with a “low base salary,” as Encina hears the Orioles have suggested. Though Tillman’s 2017 results were unsightly, last winter’s market saw names like Derek Holland and Tyson Ross — the latter of whom made just one appearance in 2016 — sign for $6MM bases. Andrew Cashner secured a $10MM guarantee on the heels of his own dreadful 2016 season, and he didn’t come with Tillman’s steady track record.
While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tillman sign a contract with plenty of incentives baked in, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll have to settle for all that modest of a base salary when considering the guarantees attained by Holland, Ross, Cashner and aging veterans R.A. Dickey ($8MM) and Bartolo Colon ($12MM) last offseason.
Even Miley may not have to settle for all that low of a base; while he’s a year older and is coming off a pair of rough seasons, he’s also averaged 31.5 starts per season dating back to 2012 and has never made fewer than 29 starts in a season (with the exception of his rookie campaign in 2011, when he was called up to the Majors in late August and totaled 40 innings of work). Troublesome results aside, a club with a spacious home park in the National League could pay for his durability and hope to achieve better run-prevention numbers in a more pitcher-friendly environment.
If Tillman and Miley do ultimately land elsewhere this winter, it’s still likely that the O’s will land another pair of arms. GM Dan Duquette has been candid about his team’s needs in the rotation and voiced a preference to reel in at least one left-handed starter, which (speculatively speaking) could put names like Jaime Garcia, Jason Vargas, Hector Santiago and Francisco Liriano on the team’s free-agent radar.
With roughly $120MM on the books for next season (including projected arbitration salaries), the Orioles will have some room between that mark and 2017’s year-end payroll of roughly $166.6MM. But, adding two to three arms to the rotation and perhaps exploring some outfield and/or bullpen depth could also send that figure north in a hurry.
ehhhhhh
lol Baltimore will always be Baltimore
Why, because they don’t want to overpay for mediocre pitching?
no, because they always bring in mediocre pitching
And overpay for it
Nothing will change as long as an Anglelos owns the team.
Very predictable. I’d be alright with them coming back on incentive laden deals as long as we add 2 other options. We need to have more than 5 guys who at least have been capable big league starters. Bundy and gausman are the only two on the roster who are good enough. Don’t want Castro, ynoa, Asher etc sniffing the rotation unless a bunch of injuries happen. That being said, I’m not a fan of wade Miley. He’s never had any success in Baltimore and I’d expect him to not reach his performance incentives if that’s the route he goes. But if he’s competing for the 5th slot with another pitcher, that’s alright.
It’s just a formality. No reason for them not to try to see if they can get them for well below market price.
No reason for them to see if they can get them back at any price. Miley is worthless. Tillman might be an emergency 6th starter, but nothing more. It is time to move on from 2 failed experiments. not a time to discuss bringing either back. If they are still on the market in March and can be had on a minor league deal, then ok. Otherwise, not just no but F no!
Okay. Tillman’s an emergency 6th starter after 1 bad season. Guys been our best pitcher for how many seasons? Are you one of those start Castro guys? Cause I’ll take Tillman. Last time I checked tillman’s the only guy who’s been able to consistently get past 170 innings in our rotation. I’ll give him more time to get right after an injury influenced garbage year. If you’re an orioles fan you should be familiar with a failed experiment and Tillman isn’t one. How about hellickson,miley, ubaldo, gallardo, any other minor league callup not named bundy or gausman. You really think we’re getting 3 pitchers this offseason with a higher upside than Tillman? Be honest with yourself. We are not.
Tillman I have no issue with. He had a horrible year, but has been reliable, if unspectacular, for years. Wouldn’t be a bad try for a fourth or fifth starter. Could be a solid comeback option.
As for Miley….NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
I am an Orioles fan and I totally agree with this.
Yeah, Tillman gets a chance to prove that it was just his arm angle after the injury. But Miley should never pitch in Baltimore again. He simply insisted on throwing every pitch three inches outside.
I would expect BAL could sign Miley for below market price because he’s practically guaranteed to deliver below replacement results. The only positive with Miley is his durability, but the results have been poor over the past 2 years. I’d only consider bringing him back if they intend to use him strictly out of the pen. As far as I’m concerned he failed his 2-year audition. Time to move on.
I would be fine with trying to get Tillman back at around 1/5 with incentives that make it 1/8-10. But don’t even bother bringing back Miley. He was terrible all year and they could probably get Vargas or Garcia for around the same price and get better results.
Vargas and Garcia will definitely cost more than miley. I think you’re underestimating Tillman as well. He should be looking at around 8mil in base salary for next season with incentives that should push him up to 13-14. He was a dependable arm for a long time minus last years implosion. Should be enough to get him a decent amount guaranteed.
Did you watch Tillman pitch last year? One of the worst pitching performances ever. And it wasn’t a SSS either, guy got too many starts to prove he was toast. 1/5 is more than fair in the hope that his shoulder is recovered and he can throw from the arm slot he had previously.
Track records get you paid. Tillman has a solid one. There’s not too many guys in the middle tier of FA that have the kind of success tillman did. He won’t sign for free. He’s only getting a year because of his injury plagued garbage year. Had he been healthy he’d be getting a deal right under the money for a Lynn or a Cobb. If you’re giving tillman 5mil in base salary you’d have to be compensating with performance incentives that are a hell of a lot higher than 8-10 million total, In a pitching starved league, he’ll get a decent guarantee. He clearly wasn’t right last year and I think the injury had a lot to do with it. 8 mil is nothing to burn on a pitcher in this league.
Why would the O’s even want either of them back. Please say it isn’t so Duke. O’s fans want real pitchers for a change, not dross.
every team in baseball is looking for pitching bargains. the O’s should know these guys better than anyone and if they think they’re worth the risk who am I to argue?
“Reached out?” Are you sure they weren’t just pushing them out the door?
Might as well “reach out” to Matt Latos, Edwin Jackson, Jeremy Guthrie, and Tim Lincecum as well. None of them are worth a damn any more, but they’re affordable, and that’s what really matters, right?
Now that Latos is separated from his nutty wife, he might be worth a shot. She’s a crazy one. Put Latos in the pen and gain a couple MPH on his now-average fastball.
Tillman seems like the next candidate for the seemingly endless string of 1-year deals from the Phillies. Perhaps $10 million/ 1 year and flip him in July?
I would rather start two guys who had never pitched above Low-A or take a Rule 5 shot at somebody and pay them pocket change than either one of these two. The process has to change before anything can happen. The 2019 season could be 1962 Mets like.
No need to throw prospects to the wolves when the best they can hope for in 2018 is a .500 year. Phillies have money to burn and can afford to take shots on rebound candidates. I agree with jbigz12 (above) — Tillman had a crap year but has good previous results and is clearly a talented guy when he’s right. Phillies should sign this dude and let the babies mature at an unhurried pace.
How many 5th SP types do they need?
You are grossly overrating these two. They are closer to 11th SP types.
Miley is going back to nl no doubt but i can see tillman coming back on a 1 or 2 year deal
Miley sucks! Tillman will probably resign. He had success in Baltimore prior to 2017 and he needs to rebuild his value.
I’m happy to not see Ubaldo on the list of pitchers they’ve contacted.
Make a list of the five worst things that Dan could do in terms of free agents or trades, and chances are he won’t do anything until January and then he will do at least one of the five and pat himself probably on the back.