Rumors continue to swirl around Marlins right fielder and trade candidate Giancarlo Stanton early this offseason. Here’s the latest on the NL MVP:
- The Cardinals “have made a formal offer” to acquire Stanton, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re at least the second team to make a pitch to the Marlins for Stanton, joining the previously reported Giants.
- There are some evaluators around MLB who believe the Marlins need a “reality check” with regards to their asking price for the slugger, Buster Olney of ESPN writes. With $295MM left on his contract and an opt-out clause after 2020 on his deal, Stanton lacks surplus value, per Olney, which jibes with a Morosi report from earlier this week. One executive told Olney that the Marlins are “not going to find teams willing to give up both the money and the prospects, and that’s why [they’ll] probably have to choose: They can either take the talent and eat some of the money, or they’ll have to prioritize the [money] savings.”
Seems as though the Marlins always need a reality check
This is the team that traded Luis Castillo for Dan Straily and gave Chen 80 million so they arent exactly the brightest bunch
Actually a different bunch that has to clean up the mess.
that wasn’t bad trade at the time avd straily Is good
that wasn’t bad trade at the time avd straily Is good Chen deal was terrible tho
I’d love to have their two World Series rings though 🙁
Let him play in Miami. If he goes there’s nothing to see in Miami. Yelich and Ozuna don’t have the star power Stanton has.
The idea is to build a good team so theres more to see in Miami than just a one man show.
Trouble is with him or without him nobody comes…
He asked to be traded. He said he doesn’t want to be a part of a rebuild and wants out of Miami so that’s why they r motivated to trade him….. not because they don’t want him playing in Miami
he wants out, but they definitely need him gone. Neither side holds all of the leverage, but Stanton has more.
Again- thats the idea. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Puts a competitive team out there and they will find a way to come.
This franchise has been among the lowest in attendance since they came into the league. Miami just isn’t a great sports town but worst of all for MLB…
They won 2 world series already which is impressive considering how new they are.
Agreed, that’s why they might have to take less money and get some good prospects.
I think it’s more a factor of conditions in regards to Miami. I think given the correct ownership group and some sustained investments in the team a fan base can be grown given they are given something to cheer for. Can’t fault a fan base or a city for bad ownership
Not a great sport town, which is why the heat are currently 6th in the nba for attendance, were 7th last year, and have been top 10 in attendance since 2011.
Also, the dolphins have shown strong attendance. Some years theyve been low have been around hurricane incidents like they had low attendance between 2011-2012 most likely due to the effects of hurricane sandy, but picked back up from 2013-current.
Miami is a sports town and will support teams that deserve to be supported.
Heat, Dolphins, Canes all have fine attendance and support from fans.
Why the Marlins don’t is puzzling.
My thoughts are it’s the cultural aspects of the city. Not many baseball lovers in the region with money to continually support the team. Plus there’s more good things to do so even if they are doing great and win 100 games it’s just one of many fun things to do on your weekend if you live down there.
Yes twice as many as the cubs have in the last 110 years
and still couldn’t fill the seats
Yet they have never won the NL East.
Heat game 6 right before Allen’s three…
That explains it all!!!
That’s true about Miami. Last time the Dolphins made then playoffs they didn’t sell out.
Florida is second to Nevada in the lowest percentage of residents born in the state. Many of them retire there and already have an allegiance.
The Marlins are much more than a one man show. Their lineup is actually pretty good. They just never have had enough starting pitching to really contend during this run, and the Fernandez tragedy really set them back. In an alternate universe with Fernandez, they might be spending to add Darvish or Arrieta and chase the Nats, but alas they are rebuilding again.
And there won’t be much to see anyway if he stays. The new ownership wants to cut the payroll, and Stanton’s contract, among others, makes it very difficult to go through free agency to put together a team, especially given the state of the farm system. They could try to stitch together a competitive team before, but after the death of Jose Fernandez it simply became unrealistic due to the problems with the roster, especially with the pitching staff.
The opt out on Stanton is so huge, if he repeats his 2017 a couple times then he’s opting out, but if he gets hurt again over the next couple years he will opt in. I don’t think his locale preference matters if he’s getting traded this winter, as its only 2 years then he can opt out and sign again in the city of his choosing.
I don’t see any way he opts out. If you look at the most similar players through age 27 Juan Gonzalez had his last good year at 31, Jose Canseco had his last good one at 34. I don’t see any way a team would be dumb enough to give him a 7 year $218 million deal at that point.
you can’t compare today’s contracts to those of players 25-30 yrs ago. pujols, fielder and Cabrera are better comparisons.
2 out of 3 of those has worked. so not a great track record
you can compare the ages of players
Yes, you can. That’s the idea behind WAR. Of course those two played 15-20 years ago. But if you want to lo0k at current players, Pujols had his last good year at age 32 and Prince Fielder at age 28, Miguel Cabrera had a good season at age 33, but was terrible at age 34. Most players who have a bad season in their 30’s are done soon thereafter and don’t bounce back.
Carlos Beltran played this season at age 40, but he really dropped after age 35. Jayson Werth had 2 good seasons in his 7 year deal.
Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera are fat. Fat gets old faster. Giancarlo Stanton is in much better shape. Stanton seems more like a George Foster to me.
Whoever employs Stanton better hope they get better results than Foster got. He had his last very good season at age 32.
It’s not about the age of decline. The point was that “no team would be dumb enough to give him 218m at that point”. You’re grossly underestimating the stupidity of some of these teams. I agree it would be a bad decision, but that’s not your original statement. you said no one would do it… and I’m telling you someone most certainly will. It’s not about decline at a certain age. It’s about wether a team will decide to over pay him oon the wrong side of 30. it happens all the time.
How do you explain CC Sabathia
You’re probably right, Stanton-types aren’t getting paid anymore no matter how good they actually are. No one pays for players whose primary tool is power anymore. Good call.
Stanton is not power alone. He
Is a five-tool player, Or at least a four-tool player— hit, hit for power, field and throw! He doesn’t have to be a base stealer.
Sorry about the double post.
Yet Scott Boras in 2017 is asking for 7 years 210 million for JD Martinez at age 30. Stanton is significantly better than Martinez, so if he puts up three 5 war seasons in a row, in 2020 I could easily see Stanton getting a better deal.
but he won’t get Close to that lol Martinez will get near 6/140
I will be shocked if he doesn’t at least get 6 at 150, hopefully not from my team, but from some team.
I can’t say what kind of contract he’ll get, but if you look at the most similar players through age 29, none of them was productive in their 30’s. I wouldn’t give Martinez more than a 3 or 4 year deal.
Asking for 7 years and $210 M does not mean squat. Thats an ask not a market. Has zero effect on anything. Boras can ask all he wants. You have to be delusional if you think that effects the marker or that JD comes anywhere near that
If he has 3 MVP caliber seasons,and Harper,Machado,and Trout get 300-400mil, he could look at their deals and opt out.
Will those players get 7 years and $219 million for ages 31-37? Harper will play his age 27-30 seasons on this contract and Machado will play his age 26-30 seasons. So you’ll get 4 or 5 top seasons on whatever contract Harper and Machado sign. A team might be willing to chance Machado for ages 31-37 if they are getting ages 26-30, but they wouldn’t do it if they were only getting his 30’s.
Mike Trout will become a free agent at the same time as Stanton’s opt out. So Stanton probably won’t have Trout’s deal to look at. Trout will be 2 years younger at that time.
You can always throw bonds as a comparison, even at 50 he could probably compete in the home run Derby
If the Marlins were willing to eat 8-10 million dollars off each of the next 3 years before his opt out, they could probably get the talent and shave the money they are needing.
You’re probably talking eating 50 million actually. 5 million per year over the 10 years. And that gets you some really good talent in return. And that’s not a ton of money. I suppose they could try to cover only the next 3 seasons, but I’m not sure anyone would like that deal. I suppose if we’re talking 10 million a year, that might do it. Depends on the prospects as well. You have to figure they’re surplus value over the course of however long they’re around. It’s a lot of math. I’m not sure a team will trade for him without addressing the opt out though, I could be wrong, but giving up a top 100 pitching prospect for even 3 years would be tough to do. Idk though, Cards are desperate for a bat.
Can you math?
I have a question, how much is a good prospect worth in money per year?
Looking at the signing bonuses of Moncada and Luis Robert probably answer your question
I read an article the other day, stating they figured prospect value at around 5 million a season. Give or take.
Thanks, we know that all propects don;t do well, so if it’s 5 million it’s not the same as 5 million of Stanton’s salary. If I’m Jeter I would ask for 2 players and pay down the salary until the opt out. about 8 million a year.
It’s a lot of Math? LoL! I don’t think that’s the problem with the trade parameters .
I’ve read a couple reports that MIA may need to contribute $50MM to get any kind of talent for Stanton but personally don’t think even $50MM is enough.
Can someone explain why the opt-out is so bad?
Teams give up sizable packages for players with 1-2 years before free agency all the time. If he opts out, you got 50-70 HR power for 3 seasons. Shouldn’t that be valuable?
Obviously, the contract beyond a potential opt-out is problematic. But I’m not understanding why the opt-out hurts his value. Anyone care to explain?
Because you don’t know what you’re trading for: are you getting 2 years of elite performing, or 2 years of injury and then a massive, crippling, contract albatross for 9 years?
Same point, but it’s 3 years. He can’t opt out until after 2020.
I think it has something to do with the uncertainty of the opt out and Marlins’ demands make it seem like, you’re getting controlled asset for the next 10 years ($295M)
Because it adds a major element of uncertainty to his value, since a team isn’t sure how long they’ll have him for, especially with his backloaded contract. If he does well, the team will almost certainly not have control of him past his opt-out when they would rather have him, and trying to retain him would require an even MORE expensive contract. On the other hand, if he starts to falter, he can use his opt-in clause, in which case the team that has him will be stuck with his contract, which would be financially limiting even if he were doing well, and closer to crippling if he isn’t.
In a way the opt out is a good thing for the team getting him, if he plays well you get his best years at market price, and he opts out so you don;t have to pay the rest of his cotract. It seems like the best of both worlds to me. Nobody knows how prospects are going to pan out.
no it’s not ever ever a good thing for the team! if he were to opt out it means someone wanted to pay him more money witch would mean he had surplus value that you would writer want on your team or you could trade away. let me repeat, an opt out is never a good thing for a team.
If he were to opt out and gets a larger contract that means that one team felt he was worth taking the risk, not that he’s worth it. The Dodgers got 3 good to great years from Zack Greinke. He might be worth the 6 year deal he got from the Diamondbacks. He might not. Either way the Dodgers got a good deal.
A player who doesn’t opt out is usually a bad deal for a team.
I agree, mrnatewalter. If anything, Stanton opting out after three productive years means the acquiring team avoids any risk of injury or ineffectiveness over years 4-10.
Deal wont happen with the Cards because brett cecil will utilize his no trade clause.
I highly doubt Cecil has any bearing on a potential deal.
Yes, you heard right – Brett Cecil will veto a Stanton trade to St. Louis.
The one thing everyone is missing about his opt-out is the amount of money he gets in the last seven years of the contract. I think it’s $218 million. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. By that time he will be 31 years old. Will he really get a bigger contract than that no matter how great he plays the next three years? IMO I doubt it. The only reason he would opt out is if he’s not happy in the situation he is in and is willing to risk negotiating a new contract to get out of it.
If he puts up three seasons at 80% of what he did in 17, then he easily opts out.
no way 80% of 2017 Stanton doesn’t get that contract. if he is add good as he was this year for 3 years then he could opt out
In a world where 40 players (not counting this offseason’s free agents) are guaranteed to earn at least $20 million in 2018, Giancarlo Stanton has significant surplus value even with the potential $295 million left on his contract.
The eight-year, $160 million contract to Manny Ramirez 17 years ago (when Ramirez was Stanton’s current age) seemed outrageous at the time but became more and more reasonable as inflation fueled skyrocketing salaries.
It takes only two bidders to drive up the price. The Marlins should land a decent package without eating salary and a better package if they do.
Actually, you’re wrong. As it sits right now, Stanton doesn’t have a lot of surplus value. You don’t have to believe me. You can do the math. That’s why the entire industry is saying the Marlins need to choose, shed payroll with small return, or eat payroll for large return.
Here is the math: This year Giancarlo Stanton posted 6.9 fWAR, valued at $55.5 million. Steamer projects Stanton with a 2018 WAR of 5.3, which this year was valued at $42.8 million. For his career Stanton has posted 34.1 fWAR, valued at $253.2 million, in 986 games over eight seasons.
Stanton is owed $25 million, $26 million and $26 million in the three seasons before his potential opt-out. The total obligation could be $295 million over 10 seasons.
but there’s something called decline lol he won’t be a 5 win player at 35
Giancarlo Stanton won’t need to be worth five wins at age 35 because by then one WAR is likely to be worth $12 million..
You make a good point about fWAR inflation, yet one WAR would have to increase in value by 50% over the figure you used in your initial calculations to be worth $12MM when Stanton is 35.
If Stanton’s performance declines at or near the rate that one-WAR value increases, this will not be a bad contract. That’s expecting a lot of Stanton, though.
You are overvaluing 1.0 WAR. 1.0 WAR isn’t worth $8 million. The Astros had 55 WAR in 2017. They didn’t have a $440 million payroll. It was $122 million. The Padres had 15 WAR. Their payroll wasn’t $120 million. It was $60 million. 1.0 WAR actually cost roughly $4.5-4.5 million. So Stanton’s 6.9 WAR was worth $31.8 million.
One WAR might cost $8 million on the free agent market because it’s more expensive to get 1.0 WAR that way. I’d need to see the math since there are a number of 2016-17 free agents that cost a lot less than that.
Where would we be without our daily dose of Giancarlo Stanton rumours…
Anyway, the team that trades for him better be really creative with their payroll because you can’t get him traded again with that contract.
Where would we be? Getting on in our lives!
No Reyes no Reyes.
If that’s what it takes, so be it
If a guy like Heyward of the scrubs makes 175 million then a real stud like Stanton is underpaid at 295 million
Yes, but then their is a guy like Price who doesn’t like it where he is, so I bet he opts out even though he is on a good team. If they don’t win the world series they will run him out of Boston.
Or the Cards trade for him as well.
by that logic of Shelby Miller is worth Swanson,Blair and inciarte then what is archer worth. don’t use one hand mistake as logic for another one
Heywards WAR was only 2 below Stanton. His bat is mediocre at best but NO ONE plays defense like Heyward. So he’s still valuable. And the whole cubs thing is played out man, 3 straight NLCS with a WS title… you’re not the smartest
Yeah at the pace the cubs are on they will catch up to the Cards WS Championships in 864 years since you average a WS every 108 years and are 8 WS rings behind the Cards. That is assuming the Cards don’t win another WS in that time! LOL!!
He’s not likely going to opt out, because the pure dollars will be hard to match then. You have to look at the obligation to pay the whole contract, because that’s almost certainly what you are going to end up doing. So it’s just a question of cost. If I were taking on the whole contract I wouldn’t be willing to give up much of anything, which would make it non-viable for Miami. If Miami were willing to kick in $5-7M per year, then some talent in return would be reasonable. If I could, The answer might be Miami pays a small amount of cash the first three years, and then more like $6-7M in the opt out years if he doesn’t opt out, and decent talent goes back. Alternatively, Miami takes backs a useful but overpaid player for the last year or two of his contract, with some younger talent, and the remaining cash is contingent on him not opting out. You could get creative here. But I really doubt full exposure plus talent makes sense.
Somebody leak the “formal offer” already. They can’t keep anything a secret in politics, so baseball shouldn’t be that hard to leak the offer. They could just use a fake Twitter account so nobody knows who’s doing it.
Yeah, somebody get Chris Correa on the phone!!
Definitely don’t think they’ll get what they think they will but I don’t see him playing for the Marlins next season.
I might be biased but in my reality the only team who is going to beat the cardinals is the dodgers…they have the prospects and of course Stanton wants to play there…but considering money and prospects the cardinals have to be offering the best…not to mention a winning franchise and with him one who will win
if the dodgers want him they can get him but I don’t think they do. add a dodgers fan I hope not
I am hoping the Cards get Stanton. That would be awesome.
Haha but Stanton has a no trade and wants nothing to do with being a Cardinal or stuck in St. Louis
Haha! But he won’t be stuck in St. Louis! He will only be playing baseball there for 81 games for a 6 month season! How is that STUCK?
I think a good comparison after the opt out is JD Martinez
Stanton has 7/218 starting at 31 years of age
Martinez wants 7/210 at 30 years of age. *most people don’t think he will get it*
more realistically 6/150-170
So Stanton would want more money being a year older.
-he is a better hitter and fielder who aslo gets injured a ton
I think it depends on how big Harper/Machado’s contract amount to
and how much that influences him.
Interestingly enough if he opts out he will not be rewarded the biggest contract that year
Trouts will dwarf his.
I’m curious to where the new ownership group eventually wants to move this team
Fascinated by the down-votes here. You are guaranteed one if you at all suggest any money goes back to the acquiring team, or anything less than premium talent comes back. I think there’s a reasonable debate to be had over Stanton’s value, as terrific a player as he is, given his contract. Others may not.
I’m wondering how much of his contract the marlins will eat. is that going to depend on the team he goes to ?
It will depend on the team in some fashion. For example, if he is traded to the Giants, they wouldn’t eat as much as they would if he was traded to the Cardinals, or Red Sox because: The Giants don’t have good prospects, let’s be honest. The Marlins return on it will be less than stellar. So the Giants would be forced to eat more of the money because of their package they are offering the Marlins. But, they’d eat a bit more for the Cardinals, or Red Sox because they have a much better prospect package to offer.
A lot of the problem with the contract and the opt out actually comes from the aav and how it’ll affect the competitive balance tax. So eating money on the Marlins side really won’t even do that much unless it’s a HUGE sum of money. The best way they can eat money is by taking back bad contacts with less years and less uncertainty, writing it off as the cash they would have had to send anyway. If they are willing to take back a junk contract, they could get a really good prospect haul.. but that seems counter productive if the idea is to get rid of short term expenses.
The Marlins were supposed to be competitive, and are supposed to be competitive. Jose Fernandez’s death but a real strain on that. That type of talent doesn’t just grow on trees. He’s going to be very hard to replace obviously in the near-term it definitely in the long term.
absolutely they were a borderline Contender with rotation problems with him and then without him they didn’t have much chance
I still can’t understand why an owner would be so idiotic to give him such an albatross of a contract in the first place. Loria didn’t have a lick of sense. I’ll say the Marlins will have to eat $9.5 million a year for the remaining 10 years to get a deal done with any kind of return. If Stanton opts out in three, he might be doing everyone a favor, in that case any team would love to have him for three years at $20 mil per year.
Loria knew that he was going to sell the team, so this is his equivalent of maxing out the credit card before he filed for bankruptcy.
So unfair and sickening to the great, historic Marlins franchise. I am going to tweet President Trump right now to do something about this mess! Loria is a bad hombre.
Trump likely guided Loria toward bankruptcy.
Bottom line is very few of the top salary players are worth the money, I would say about 10 % Top salaries Kershaw,Greinke, Cabrerra, Price,Scherzer, Cespedes, Verlander, Lester, Strasburg, Stanton,Hernandez, Trout, Pujols, Cano, Hamels, Davis, Mauer, Heywood, Tanaka, Votto,Zimmerman, Gonzalez,Ramirez, Cueto, Upton, Braun, and Porcello.
You listed 27. So that means only three are worth it — 2.7. Who are the three?
I would say, Kershaw, Scherzer and Trout; followed by Stanton, Cabrera, Votto, then the rest are lumped together.
Olney hasn’t “reported” anything in years. Teams use him as an outlet for disinformation or he just makes stuff up to keep himself in the news.
Let’s start with facts. If Stanton opts out then the team that traded for him got incredible surplus value. It means that Stanton had 3 awesome seasons and they only paid $77 million for those 3 seasons.
If he doesn’t opt out, the Marlins (or sources inside the team) have said that they are willing to pay $5-7 million of his salary starting in 2021. That is lots of surplus value.
Agree 110%. Marlins want salary relief NOW. They pay NOTHING the next 3 years.
They may be willing to pay 5M per year for the FINAL Seven years if Stanton DOES NOT OP OUT. That would indeed be value for the team getting Stanton!
So you’re giving up a premium prospect to possibly receive $35M? There’s no way any team accepts that offer. Ultimately the discussion is not about 10/$295M, but 3/$77M. Any team acquiring him is hoping he’s opting out. If he is, he’s been healthy and successful. If I’m negotiating for him it’s based solely on the 3/$77M. I’m offering one or two premium prospects and one or two non-prime prospects and possibly a player off the MLB roster.
But all cash has to be exchanged in one year
Since when? The Dodgers are still paying for Kemp. Many other examples of that too.
Lets go yankees and get stanton to go along with Judge and sanchez. Id be willing to let go clint frazier, Dellin Betances who the marlins could just turn around and trade for more prospects.
Love people who down vote for no reason.
Yanks are staying UNDER Salary cap in 2018 and going for Harper/Machado in 2019!
Is it possible for Miami to make money going back conditional on if he don’t opt out, and receive a conditional player to be named later if they end up paying it?
Whoever commented here., congratulations on being part of (what I think) is the most disliked MLBTR thread of all time. Feels like almost Every comment here regularly got 6-7 downvotes. The pattern (mostly) seems, naysayer Stanton commentators, bearish on Stanton’s trade value.
Whoever orchestrated it, kudos (Disclaimer: I don’t think Stanton has negative trade value )
No, it’s just really stupid posts (or trade proposals) that get the downvotes.
Trading Stanton would almost be worse then the marlins giving up Miguel Cabrera for a whole lot of busts other then Andrew miller but even he struggled as a starter and didn’t come into form as a dominant reliever until after he was gone from the marlins
They weren’t “busts” at the time; plenty of us are praising a prospect or two today that will turn out to be a bust 5-10 years from now.
Wait, maybe if the taxpayers pay for a stadium the front office will keep the players!
“Giantcarlo Stanton”
There may not be surplus value according to flawed $/WAR equations, which basically say a 1-WAR player has the same per-WAR value that a 6-WAR player does, which is absurd. The 6-WAR player is only taking up one spot on your roster, compared to a bunch of 1-WAR players, therefore his WAR is far more valuable.
My guess is that the Marlins will both eat money ($10M per year for last five years) and receive no real talent. Look no further than the Miguel Cabrera and how it has destroyed Detroit for the next eight years.
Miguel can still rake tho. But Zimmerman says hello.