NOV. 3: Miami is informing other teams that it is willing to listen on Stanton, Gordon, and Prado but will not entertain offers on Yelich and Ozuna at this time, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Whether the stance on the latter two players might change isn’t yet clear. It’s possible that the club wishes to focus first on the other pieces.
OCT. 30: The Marlins have identified a “preferred path” to paring the team’s slate of player contracts for the 2018 season down to $90MM, according to a report from Barry Jackson and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Specifically, the club would like to move the contract of star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton along with those of infielders Dee Gordon and Martin Prado.
Talk of a possible Stanton swap has been building in earnest for months. And it comes as little surprise to hear that the team is indeed preparing to market him, given its reported intentions of making significant payroll reductions in the first offseason under new ownership. Obvious as it may be that now is the time to part with the slugger, it’s notable that the team has evidently chosen its direction even as it prepares to sit down with him in a few days’ time. (Stanton, of course, enjoys full no-trade protection and so will have a major say in things.) And the team’s reported intentions perhaps hint that the focus could be on moving all of Stanton’s salary rather than maximizing the prospect return.
[RELATED: Miami Marlins Offseason Outlook]
It’s also hardly an eye-opener to learn of the availability of Gordon and Prado. Both have been discussed as trade candidates in the past, with Gordon drawing some interest last year and Prado cited as a deadline possibility before he went down to injury. Trading these three players has some initial logic, since their respective 2018 salaries add up to nearly $50MM — which would leave the club right at its stated goal in view of its other commitments. And that would leave untouched the Marlins’ best assets.
Of course, the trouble lies in the details here. Prado, in particular, clearly wouldn’t earn anything close to his remaining obligations — two years and $28.5MM — were he instead a free agent. After all, he just turned 34 and produced a .250/.279/.357 batting line over just 147 plate appearances in an injury-riddled 2017 season. Though Gordon still looks to be a productive player worthy of a regular job, he’s a slightly below-average hitter whose value lies in his speed and glovework at second. He’s still just 29, but age could be a bigger concern with that skillset. Regardless, the market is loaded with options at second, which makes Gordon’s remaining commitment — $38MM over the next three years (including a 2021 option buyout) — appear to be less than a screaming bargain. Even Stanton, fresh off of a 59-dinger outburst, arguably does not come with much or any surplus value as against the overall remaining guarantee ($295MM) in his mammoth contract.
Actually getting rid of the 2018 commitments to these three players, then, simply won’t be a matter of handing off their contracts. Even if competitors are willing to absorb the entirety of the Stanton and Gordon deals, they likely won’t be sending much in the way of talent back in return. And Prado clearly represents a possible salary dump at this point, meaning the Fish would need to send additional talent along with him if the hope is to clear his salary. Unless the team is willing to sell away prospects, that’d mean dealing other, more valuable assets from the MLB roster.
The realities of the situation make clear that the Marlins will need to oversee a net talent outflow — or, at least, a reshuffling that results in a reduction of their major league talent in favor of prospects. Yet the report also cites a source that indicates the team would rather not part with J.T. Realmuto, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Dan Straily — which doubles as a list of those Marlins players that are worth quite a bit more than they are due to earn.
Clearly, something has to give here, which the Marlins front office surely realizes. What’s perhaps most notable about the report, though, is the apparent suggestion that the team won’t independently look to deal from its base of affordable, quality talent. It goes without saying that the Marlins shouldn’t give away such players for less than a compelling return, but it’s arguably unwise to move Stanton, Gordon, and Prado while not embarking upon a broader rebuilding effort. Ozuna, especially, is getting expensive (a projected $10.9MM for 2018) and will be a free agent after 2019.
It’s understandable that the team wishes to hold onto as many recognizable players as it can, but there’d be little to no hope of a turnaround for a team that has failed to perform as hoped in recent years. Miami’s pitching staff is among the worst in baseball and obviously won’t be buttressed by any significant free-agent spending. Stanton is all but irreplaceable. Derek Dietrich could step in for Gordon, but that would mean extending him as a player and reducing his value as a utility asset. And the left side of the infield would presumably be entrusted to some combination of JT Riddle, Miguel Rojas, and Brian Anderson, an inexperienced group that hardly inspires confidence of delivering compelling output in the near future.
That being said, there is another way to read the report. Perhaps the team will still be willing to entertain offers on its more appealing assets, even if it won’t seek deals for them owing to payroll pressures. Viewed in that manner, it may be a fairly prudent approach to embarking upon a rebuild. Ultimately, from my vantage point, it would be surprising to see the Marlins open the coming season with all of Realmuto, Yelich, Ozuna, Bour, and Straily on the roster.
In other news, the Herald duo cover the latest in front office moves from the Marlins. The new ownership group has now parted ways with more than twenty employees from various departments. You’ll want to read the story for all the details.
What would teams have to give up to get Stanton? Last year no teams would give up top players for him because of his contract. So are teams now trading top prospects and taking on ALL of his money. Or would the marlins still have to cover some of it to get TOP prospects
It’s going to take “mid-range” prospects and eating majority of his contract (from my understanding, Florida is expected to eat a good portion of it to make him more enticing to other teams) which is the reason they would only get mid range prospects
Nah. If they take “mid-range” prospects, they won’t be eating very much money (if any). If they eat the majority of his contract, they’ll be getting at least 1 legitimate prospect back.
It will take swarbs Hayward and Robson done deal
Why would Miami take on Heyward’s obscure contract? The answer is, th they wouldn’t. He also had a no trade clause if I remember correctly. So not only could he veto a trade to a rebuilding team, that rebuilding team isn’t going to take that contract on when they’re trying to cut payroll. They could bank on Hayward opting out, but he’s not worth the contract he signed, so why would he opt out?
lol!!!!
No, it’s going to take top prospects and they’re paying for most of his contract – that’s what a reigning MVP is worth. I’d expect a team is going to step up and offer a top 20 MLB prospect as well as lots of pitching back, both in prospects and cost-controlled young MLB stars. They might actually improve if they lose Stanton, Gordon and Prado and keep Yelich, Realmuto and Ozuna and get near-MLB ready prospects back.
The article was suggesting the new Marlins ownership was more interested in moving the entire contract or most of it. If that is true then you are not getting top prospects back
The new ownership wants to reduce payroll, which means they will prioritize the other team eating most of Stanton’s salary rather than asking for a top 20 prospect. No team out there is going to give up a top 20 prospect AND absorb that contract. Just from a contract perspective only a handful of teams out there are even financially able to add that to their existing payroll.
Doesn’t this article say Miami is focused on shedding Stanton’s contract in totality, as opposed to decent prospects?
Correct. I think most folks are evaluating Stanton’s value apart from the massive $300M he’s still owed. If the Marlins were to cover a significant portion of that contract, then they’d receive some talent in return. But the story clearly indicates the Marlins want to be out from under the entire deal.
Look at it this way: The number of teams which can afford even half of Stanton’s contract on their payroll for a single player for the next decade is very limited, and those few teams are further limited by Stanton’s NTC. The Marlins won’t be negotiating from a position of strength. They’ll get what is offered, or keep Stanton, but a bidding war seems unlikely.
Toronto doesn’t have the prospects for him or else he would look great in rf for the jays
And his no trade clause probably means he vetoes a deal to Toronto.
The Jays have more than enough prospects for both Stanton and Gordon. The article is pretty clear that both players may have negative value based on contracts and money owed. Not to mention that the Jays have a top 10 farm system.
Stanton’s “no trade clause” well that’s a different issue
Agreed. The Jays can afford the additional payroll and would have the quality prospects that you would give up for those two. Like you said, the no trade hinders it greatly. Stanton in right field at the Dome? It would be great to see.
Pitching, Pitching, and more Pitching! The Pirates, Braves, Yanks, and the Padres have the best young pitching. The only thing is they aren’t in the market for a big ticket player like Stanton. It should be interesting. A big market team will have to give up some good pitching to get him.
If they took Cutch back and the Pirates dumped the rest of their roster they could afford him
You forgot the cardinals…
$300 million? Forget the cardinals
Lol the cardinals can easily afford that…get a clue bud
The cardinals are starting a billion dollar tv contract this year and are the most profitable team in baseball.
They absolutely can take on the contract. The questions are, will they be willing to take it on if Stanton can opt out after 3 years, and will Stanton accept the trade? If they’re willing to take lower prospects for him, I see him going to SF. I’d rather see the Cardinals make a play for Machado at the deadline or next offseason via FA.
Obviously you do not know much about the Cards situation. They may be the only team with the combination of MLB ready prospects and salary capacity. I’m betting now he is in Cards outfield next opening day.
I didn’t say they couldn’t afford him it’s that they don’t spend the money . Pujols ring a bell? Lance Lynn not getting payday from them? Remember they get extra draft picks because they are “small market”
Wouldn’t have signing Pujols been a major mistake?
Yes. Stanton could be same mistake ? Cards seem to look smart at not getting saddled with brutal contracts .
Only team? Lol. No chance he accepts a trade to STL.
They haven’t necessarily given up on Lynn they know he wants paid and theyre letting him test the market…plus the cardinals have plenty of depth in pitching…the cardinals just offered big contracts to Heyward and Price the last two offseasons…they are ready to spend…The Cardinals realize they need a corner stone player and Stanton is, IMO, the best out there, or at least the one who makes the most sense for them…yes I know he has to say ok to the deal but I think the cardinals will make key moves this year to prove they will contend and Stanton will agree to come to St. Louis…just my opinion but I think it is a perfect storm for the cardinals…other big market teams are trying to get under the tax…and the dodgers have already been warned by the MLB they have to much debt
Flaherty or Weaver from the Cardinals would be a great centerpiece, I think.
Where would the Yankees play him ? Their outfield is beyond full…
There is zero chance he’s a Yankee. Great player but if there is ever a year they get under the tax threshold it’s this year. Even if it means they do next to nothing in the FA market or trades to get there they will. That all but eliminates Stanton.
That said to answer your question a team would make a spot for a superstar of Stanton’s caliber. Guys like Frazier or Hicks get blocked or dealt. Gardner slides over. Stanton has a large amount of DH at bats. There would be ways.
But again, 0% chance he’s a Yankee.
Yanks could move Frazier, Green, Gardner, and Sheffield for him.
I digress. big market teams go after these big ticket players. it would be like saying 0% chance harper will never be a yankee. Likely landing spot for stanton would be yankeess, rangers or angles. or even boston in the mix.
slider32
is this framework to the marlins a joke? if not, you are delsuional.
If the Yankees pick up all options and including paying all the arbitration cases they are at $154 million next season. That leaves enough to pay Stanton and still pick up a pitcher. If Tanaka opts out, that gives them more money. They have the money. They have the prospects.
Braves might offer the Marlin’s Wisler and Blair for Stanton (Braves of course would eat the contract) but I doubt they’d even offer that much.
How about trading the Red Sox’ OF Rusney Castillo to Miami for OF Stanton? Both teams unload contracts they no longer want to support.
Stanton is coming off a great year and has averaged nearly 5 WAR for his career. His opt-out after 2020 is a benefit to teams that might trade for him. If he continues to play like last year it’s a no-brainer that he would opt out and he would have been a huge bargain for those 3 seasons, especially after Harper and Machado bust open the FA market after 2018 with $400 million contracts. If Stanton doesn’t play as well as 2017, but continues to hit for average and power then his contract will still be worth it.
The Marlins will get at least one elite prospect and 2-3 more in the other teams top 20 for Stanton. The trade will probably be structured like this, if Stanton opts out then the Marlins pay no money, if Stanton doesn’t opt out then they pay $5 million per season for the remaining 7 seasons and the $10 million option buyout.
No, an opt out is never a benefit to the team. If he continues to play like this the acquiring team would prefer that he doesn’t opt out. And the Marlins probably need to pay more than you suggested if they want any elite prospects.
In this case, it is.
No team wants to keep a 31+ year old player for $218 million. They know beyond any doubt that he will begin declining at that point. Even if he is good, you don’t want money on a declining asset.
What they want is peak years at the lowest amount of money they can. That is 2018-2020 for Stanton.
Any team trading for Stanton would prefer 3 peak years at $77 million than 3 peak years at $77 million ($25.6 MM AAV) and 7 declining years at $218 million ($31.4 MM AAV) even if they are giving up great prospects to get him. $35-50 million is a sizable chunk of $218 million. What did the Dodger’s pay to get rid of a washed up Kemp and his contract?
No, an opt out is never team friendly. If what you’re saying is true that no one wants him for what he is owed then there is no way he will opt out. If he does opt out, it means he is being paid less than he is worth in which case his team would prefer him not to opt out.
I don’t always agree with WestCoastRyan but in this case he is correct and opt out is never team friendly. If a player plays under the contract then the team is stuck with him when he doesn’t perform and if he plays great then he opts out into a larger contract. The team has all of the risk with an opt out it’s always in the players favor to get a longer contract with an opt out.
The difference between August when the put him on waivers and now is other teams couldn’t trade players on the 40 man roster without them first clearing waivers. This is no longer an issue. Also,I am not convinced the previous owner really wanted to trade him. This group does.
Stanton may not have a lot of surplus value in terms of stat output to dollar value, but his stat output is one of the best in the league, he’s not meant to be “found” on a bargain deal. He’s not going to fetch an insane return but it should be a good package.
Marlins are only going to get any quality prospects by eating a portion of the salary. This will not be like the Sale & Eaton trades of last offseason.
Not a Sale type package, but he could fetch a decent haul.
That depends on what you consider “decent”. It has to work for both teams. The Marlins want to get out from under that enormous contract, but no team in MLB is going to give up a significant package of prospects AND take on all of that future salary commitment.
If Stanton repeats what he did this year (which I know most likely won’t happen) he would actually produce quite a bit of surplus value considering he was worth approximately 7 fWAR this year and given that 1 WAR is worth about 7 million dollars right now and Stanton is slated to make 25 mil next year, he would produce about 24 million dollars of surplus value
1 WAR is probably worth even more than that. But (as you hint) we need to price in the likelihood of some regression, all manner of risk, aging curve, his opt-out, etc as well.
The opt out is the killer. It occurs at the exact wrong time for an acquiring team, and the exact right time for Stanton (which is why it’s there).. Right when serious decline should start to kick in., or at least when a team would start worrying about it. I bet the opt out alone kills 70-80% of his marginal value. He’s gonna get traded for literally scraps (assuming the Marlins refuse to take on any money). Only a tiny handful of teams possible. Look for one with an unusually (even relative to the competition) rich owner who just wants to go for it.
That contract will go down as the worst decision by a major league front office in decades. Imagine where they’d be if they had let him go and traded him before his arb years ran out.
Worst decision? Right up there with A-Rod signing with Texas and then them paying his salary as a Yankee.
The A-Rod contract with Texas was foolish because Texas couldn’t afford it, and got played by Boras. And at the time it was an overpay based on the market, but he certainly performed—arguably as the second best player in the game—throughout the deal. His second deal with the Yankees was much worse. They overpaid dramatically when they didn’t have to…there was nowhere else for A-Rod to sign for anywhere close to that money.
How is 1 WAR worth $7M? If every player was paid based on WAR, at that price point, no team in baseball could afford their payrolls. Take the Athletic’s for example…their 2017 WAR totaled 26.7, or a payroll of more than $180M.
Perhaps this fantom number/worth is tied directly to free agents, but even then it’s skewed. As a free agent is Cameron Maybin getting $13M+ AAV this year? His WAR says he should, but he won’t. So the only thing that WAR value really trends to is the top-tier players on the free agent market, not anyone else, right? And then when top-tier players do sign as free agents the analytics which WAR and value are based tell us he’s underpaid. So what sense does it actually make?
It’s just for free agency and the reason Maybin wouldn’t get 13 mil is that he isn’t projected for a 2 WAR season and the projections are what matters. Also, most top free agents get long term deals in which they are underpaid at the beginning and overpaid at the end
There are lots of ways you could look at it, but the typical way to approach it is to assess the price of 1 WAR (in theory) on the open market. Every team necessarily must achieve better value than that, of course, primarily by getting outsized contributions from pre-arb and arb players.
I’m not arguing it’s perfect or anything, but people that have estimated it seem to have moved that value up north of $7MM. That’s all I’m saying.
As many have said, his opt-out is a benefit to the team trading for him. Whoever trades for him is actually hoping that he performs so well in 2018-2020 that opting out is a slam dunk decision. If so they get three years of 7+ WAR seasons at a very reasonable rate and someone else takes on the probability of declining performance in his next FA contract.
If that is the case, then why is it that just about everyone who has commented on it has said that the opt-out in 3 years, coming on the heels of a 59 home run season, is exactly what an acquiring team would hope for?
Let’s spell this out for you.
If Stanton repeats or comes close to 2017 in 2018-2020 then the surplus value, even after giving up 3-4 top prospects to get him, is huge. fWAR is worth about $8 million or a bit more. Last season was a 6.9 fWAR season. If all he does is put up career average seasons or 4.8 WAR, then he is still providing tremendous surplus value.
In 2021 he enters his age 31 season, an age where players begin to decline at a relatively consistent pace. From there its all downhill. Right now the team trading for him would owe a minimum of 218 million for 2021-2027 assuming the team buys out the $25 option for 2028 when Stanton would be 38 years old.
So let me reiterate. The team trading for him hopes beyond hope that he actually does opt out. Then they get 3 prime years with huge surplus value and are not responsible for his declining years from 31-37. The opt-out and his 59 home run season in 2017 and the possibility of him moving into a hitter-friendly park (just imagine what 2017 would have looked like if he played in Camden Yards or Yankee Stadium or even Chase Field) makes him worth more than if there were no opt-out.
The Marlins will get a return befitting a player that is at or near the top of the game today. At least one elite prospect and a couple more that are in the top 20 of whatever team is acquiring him.
The acquiring team may ask for some protection if he DOESN’T opt out. Maybe $5-7 million per season and the Marlins pay the option year buyout. Although I think that to forgo his no-trade clause, that Stanton is going to ask that 2028 be guaranteed.
Opt-out is never a benefit to the team. If he can get more money they lose a player they are paying below market value. If he can’t get more money they are stuck with a player being paid more than he is worth.
Outinleft the way you are portraying the contract is all one sided you are completely ignoring the reason that a player of Stanton’s caliber negotiates an opt out clause. What you don’t talk about is the risk the acquiring team takes that he doesn’t opt out after a major injury or simply massive decline. The risk of an opt out, without exception, is on the acquiring team here. It is a negative for whomever lands him and therefore is going to reduce his value in a trade. If you can’t see that then you must be a Marlin fan hoping for a big return.
fWAR is about $8.25 million. You are on the right track. The Marlins will pay little if any of Stanton’s contract and get a large return in terms of prospects.
Let the downvotes begin. Just come back after its over and tell me that I was right with the same vigor as that with which you hit the downvote button.
I won’t down vote I’ll simply tell you I think you’re very wrong. None of the three or four teams that could afford him will be willing to pay such a steep price in dollars AND prospects. It’s a homer thought to think they will. Of those four possible teams some don’t want to stay above or go over the luxury threshold. So his already small market is even smaller. They will eventually trade him for a couple mid prospects maybe MLB ready. But they will not eat much if any of his contract.
I’m not a Marlins fan. Far from it. I live and die by the Orioles. I think the Marlins have been an example of the worst of the worst and as an MLB fan I am hoping that some sanity will prevail there with new ownership. It’s not good for MLB, a sport I love, to have someone like Loria in charge of a team.
What I am is an informed MLB fan. There are far more than 4 teams that can afford him. 14 teams have payrolls in excess of $150 million. All f them could afford him. In addition, the Cardinals ( who have been named numerous times as a fit for Stanton), Rockies and Astros have revenue that would allow a bump in payroll to fit in Stanton. That is 17 of 30.
Any team acquiring Stanton hopes he opts out of the deal after 2020. Then they are not responsible for the expensive and declining years from 2021-2027.
For those 3 seasons, if all Stanton does is put up a career average 4.8 fWAR over the next 3 seasons, then he will have been worth far in excess of the $25-26 million he will earn. About $35-38 million in surplus value if the value of WAR remains constant. It has been increasing every year.
If he puts up even one more 6+ fWAR season and 2 more in the career average range, a highly likely scenario and the one the Marlins are basing his trade value on, his surplus value will be about $55 million.
You don’t get $35-55 in surplus value for the 1st 3 years of a contract for mid-level prospects.
Now I can see a clause in the trade deal that says if Stanton does not opt out that the acquiring team would receive $5-7 million per year for the last 2021-2027.
You like you’re own voice don’t you? Actually the Cardinals were one of the 3-4 teams I’d include. I will agree that Loria is terrible for baseball. *Montreal nods in agreement*. But most of the rest I disagree with to varying degrees.
The problem with saying Stanton’s stat output is “one of the best in the league”…which output are we talking about exactly? 2017 was exceptional, no question. But are we going to consider what he did in 2015 and 2016? His output wasn’t exceptional…not to the point a team is going to give a huge haul and pay $300M.
He got hit in the face with a 95 mph fastball. Wonder how long it’d take you to get over that, then hit 59 Homers??
I’m not disputing why he didn’t perform, just stating that he didn’t. What was his excuse in 2013? He didn’t get hit with a fastball in the face then, did he? Stanton, throughout his career, has been very inconsistent in his ability to stay on the field. Banking on him playing 150 games, hitting 50+ home runs, and playing like he did in 2017, is a fool’s bet.
In 2013 he put up 2.6 WAR which is worth about $20 million per season today.
20 million for 2.6 WAR kind of sounds like a ripoff
There is something to this thought, I agree. Teams might not pay him much more than that, really, in free agency. But they might give something up for the chance to make that investment in a quality, still-youthful player.
Still, I have a hard time getting my head around a deal where the full contract goes and a truly significant prospect comes back.
I could see a mid-priced established MLB player with a few years of control left being a main return piece, something which has been scoffed at by the writers here due to it not meshing with their timeline. Someone like Jackie Bradley jr. Logic being that, while Miami might not be able to bring in a big prospect haul without paying down, they may be able to bring back a pretty good haul by flipping the controllable player. If Bradley had a good first half he would have a lot of value with 2.5 years of control left. Include some lesser prospects with him and I could see that type of deal going through.
Some combination of Grichuck/Wong/Piscotty/Wacha/Diaz could work. Panik. Puig. Marisnick/Fisher/some of their pitchers.
If they are flipping said player, I guess you’re suggesting essentially a 3-team deal. I wouldn’t rule that out out of hand. Generally, I think they could receive cheaper young players back rather than prospects.
Not sure what you are reading into with writers here scoffing at things. I have mentioned in chats, for example, that the Phillies and Cardinals could send young MLB players back to the Marlins as a point in favor of those orgs in a possible Stanton deal.
He wants to win and ruled out Phillies.. I have a bad feeling he’s going to Boston where he will hit more home runs
Great point here. It hadn’t occurred to me that the Marlins could take on someone like Piscotty or Grichuk (who are both incredibly expendable with STL) and potentially get a decent haul for them, better than what they may receive for Stanton, weirdly.
I could see a Pham, Diaz and A level prospect
Pham is currently one of the most valuable and underpaid players in the league. I promise you one of the best players in the league won’t go in a Stanton deal with that contract.
Pham could easily go. He’s 29 and has eye problems that will get worse. I love Pham. His production probably made him the most underpaid player in the game last year, but it isn’t sustainable for much longer if at all. He is easily a possible trade candidate.
Surplus value is based on WAR. At his career fWAR average of 4.8 he is worth $39.6 million per season. At last season’s level of production or 6.9 fWAR, he is worth far more than that. The next 3 seasons he will make a total of $77 million. To be worth that he would need to produce a little over 3 fWAR per season.
3 more seasons of his career average fWAR and he will probably opt out. If he produces seasons over 6 fWAR like this year, he will definitely opt out.
Here is what the Marlins need to do:
Come the winter meetings, trade every single one of Stanton, Gordon, Prado, Realmuto, Yelich, Ozuna, Bour and Straily to the highest bidder, eating as much of their contracts as is necessary, duke it out with the Tigers and Royals for the #1 pick next year and start fresh.
again?
They haven’t done this in 20 years
They did it like 5 years ago…
Nolasco, Reyes, Buehlre, Sanchez, Infante, Bell, Mujica, Buck, Johnson, Big Z
Nope. They didn’t commit to the rebuild. They traded prospects to try and force their way into contention. Once you do that you are back to square one.
the 2013 Marlins lost 100 games, and in that time, they brought up most of their young talent
They did it 5 years ago. They did it in 2004 after they won it all in 2003. Been more recent than 20 years… however, I do agree that they should trade all of them, but eating most of that salary won’t help their purpose of saving money.
“ . . . trade every single one of Stanton, Gordon, Prado, Realmuto, Yelich, Osuna, Bour and Strailly to the highest bidder, eating as much of their contracts as is necessary . . . “
IOW you don’t have the ability to distinguish between good contracts and bad contracts. Cool, I’ll take Yelich.
Note the “as is necessary.” Obviously not all those guys will require the Marlins to eat salary to move them but if they do then the Marlins need to be willing to do that. Yelich has plenty of surplus value. Prado, for example, doesn’t.
Marlins should be able to pull something close to Sale with people like Yellich. Prado should be dealt for anyone halfway decent and salary relief. Gordon and Stanton are in-between: high risk, costly, but with high upsides. How much of their salary can the Marlins afford to pick up, really? They should be able to get pretty good, even if not top notch, prospects if they can assume enough of their salary.
“Yelich has plenty of surplus value.”
Correct. So why in the world are you looking to trade him? You don’t expect this 25 year old to still be productive when the Fish surface again?
“Prado, for example, doesn’t.”
Also correct. Now why would anyone else consider him worth a roster spot even if he were making nothing and cost nothing to acquire?
Because the Marlins could get an absolute haul for him and those players might actually still be around when the Marlins are good again. Yelich won’t.
Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. If the Marlins can’t find a taker for Prado just release him.
They won’t pull a Sale-like package for Yelich – more like an Eaton type package.
One could argue the Eaton package is better than the Sale package.
“If the Marlins can’t find a taker for Prado just release him.”
I’m glad you’re not the GM of my team. Prado is hardly dead weight. And he is one of the leaders of this team. He has a very positive clubhouse presence, plays good defense, and hits for average. He’s coming off of his FIRST ever (at age 34) injury-plagued season.
I’d like to be a GM of an opposing team and pick your pockets. Do you have an opening in your fantasy baseball league? jk / LOL
If other GM’s see Prado the way you do the Marlins should be able to trade him
Trading Yelich, Realmuto, Bour or Straily make no sense. They’re already dirt cheap. Especially Yelich, super friendly contract.
The prospect haul they could get for those players is the reason why they would do that.
Agreed. Trading Yelich is going to net the most of any trades. Stanton won’t get as much if the team is willing to take on his contract. If Miami takes most of it on, then maybe.
Keep Prado but the rest sure would make the Orioles better and still keep their payroll at like a reasonable 180 especially if the Os could then dump Trumbo for nothing but relief of his 17 million. After season the Orioles free agents include Machado, Britton, and Jones. They could take on a lot of salary, they are competitive team last 6 years, and could probably throw back a decent mid range prospect like Sedlock or Jomar Reyes if the Marlins ate a slither of that Stanton contract. Then depending on the season they can decide to trade away the existing pending free agents or work to extend.
Trumbo is scheduled to make 12.5 and 13.5 the next two years, not $17. Also, not sure how the O’s “dump” that salary. Nobody is taking him on for that.
Machado – $17.3
Britton $12.2
Jones $17.3
total $46.8
Stanton will make $25mil and up from 2018 through 2028. So yes, the Orioles will have the books freed up enough to afford Stanton in 2018, but it also only leaves you $21mil to find a closer and shortstop. And hangs another albatross contract over that team for a slugger
The Orioles seem intent on trying to win now as even Buck and DD contract expire after next season. DD might not be able to get the ok to do from Peter Angelos but he clearly is trying to get to world series before he is ousted or otherwise he would have already pulled the trigger on rebuild. Britton was hurt and a reported deal fell through so I could see holding onto him until mid season but they would have brought in a haul on Machado, Brach, Givens, Castillo, Jones, Smith. My suggestion above is a win now deal. Not good for long term but if they cared about long term they would have already started rebuild. Everyone knows they will let Macho Man walk. They have a shortstop in Beckham and a team should never buy a closer.
Angelos will never allow a rebuild. Angelos signed both Davis and Trumbo, not Duke, so they will not be dumped. The O’s are in big trouble after 2018 and its doubtful Angelos allows any trade now involving any of the guys who will be FA after 2018.
That is the unfortunate truth of being an O’s fan. Angelos is a senile idiot who signs and keeps who he wants and Duke has no real power to make over the team.
As a Marlins fan, i wish this is what they would do. I would love it. Just dont draft Tyler Koleks and we’ll be set come 2021. No point in half asssing it.
I agree with you that they need to start a rebuild, but stripping everything of value is not going to happen with a new ownership. Stanton, Gordon, Prado and possibly Straily and Ozuna should be traded.
Of those you mentioned, the only one they will be eating salary on will be Prado.
Yelich, Bour, and Realmuto are young, under team control for the long term and cheap. They are the ones the Marlins won’t trade unless blown away by the return.
The other issue with trading Stanton is the opt-out. The opt-out version and non-opt out version of Stanton are two very different commodities, acquiring teams don’t know which one they will get and obviously Stanton is under no obligation to commit one way or the other on his opt out for three more years.
I agree. The opt-out is toxic. If he waived the opt-out, Miami would get a much bigger return and he could ensure a better destination.
No one in their right mind would opt out and gamble with losing that kind of money.
That’s what you think
3 more 6+ WAR seasons like 2017 and an opt-out becomes a no-brainer for Stanton. He would easily get more than $31 per season AAV on a 7-year deal at that point.
Yes but they also take on the downside that he doesn’t do that and opts in and they are stuck with a boat anchor contract.
Stanton would be getting $218 million for ages 31-37. If you look at the most similar players according to Baseball Reference:
Juan Gonzales: least good season at 33
Jose Canseco: last good full season at 34, although played well at 35 and 36 part time. He was at the end. That’s not an option for some teams.
Darryl Strawberry: Substance abuse problems. Not a good comp.
Prince Fielder: Injuries started at 30. Done at 32.
Adam Dunn: Last good season at age 30.
Rocky Colavito: Last good season at age 31
Manny Ramírez: Had a lot of injuries but still produced at 37.
Harmon Killebrew: Last really good season at 34, but productive through age 36.
Greg Luzinski: Last good season at 32.
Reggie Jackson: Last good season at 36.
Stanton doesn’t have to be like the comps but it doesn’t look good that he’d be productive for 7 years. It might only be 3-4. No team in their right mind would give him 7 years at age 31 although there is precedent in contracts Cabrera, Pujols, and Cano got. Of course those don’t look good right now.
I can’t see him opting out no matter how good he is..
Players start declining on a pretty consistent line starting with their age 31 season. About 7% per season in WAR. Defense goes first.
Couple of things creative GMs could do to mitigate it.
Trade prospects based on the pre-opt-out: approx 3-year, $75 million.
If Stanton Opts out, great, deal is done. If Stanton sticks around for the 7-year $200 declining years portion of the show, then Marlins start to kick money.
This brings in solid prospects now. Delays potential financial outlay until 2021. They could base financial compensation on his 2018-20 3-year WAR total and factor in a decline arc.
As it is, Marlins are seriously delusional if they think they are going to walk away clean from that contract with decent prospects.
Yeah, there would have to be some stipulation that says “Marlins pay x amount of money if and only if Stanton doesn’t opt out.” Is that allowed?
Yeah. After Arod opted out of his original ten year $250MM contract with Texas Rangers, Texas’s financial obligations to NYY were extinguished, and that’s why NYY was pissed at Arod (but still ended up re-signing him to a new ten year $275MM contract, ownership decision overruled Cashman)
Here’s an excerpt from the original article announcing Arod opted out:
“Texas turns out to be the biggest winner, saving the remaining
money it would have had to pay New York as part of the 2004 trade. Boras said the Rangers are still responsible for $3 million in annual deferred money A-Rod is owed in the next three years under the contract.”
espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=3084640
Literally the same exact situation, just Arod’s contract was shorter, and worth less than Stanton’s or what remained of the 10 year $250MM contract, considering this was 10 years ago lol)
“Rodriguez loses the final $72 million in guaranteed salary in
the record contract, which he signed with Texas before the 2001
season. The Yankees lose $21.3 million in remaining payments from the Rangers, a subsidy agreed to at the time of his 2004 trade.”
So as you can see, it’s allowed, and there’s precedent. So long as the contract isn’t altered.
espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=3084640
Not the same. Texas was already sending money for the pre opt-out years.
I’d assume it is. Payments between teams over players might not be covered by the collective bargaining agreement, so it’d just be league rules. If a team doesn’t have to pay the money to Stanton, why should the Marlins pay them money?
Agreed. They’ve got to eat money to get anything decent in return. If I’m a Marlins fan, I’d be furious if they essentially gave away Stanton for a sack of potatoes just to shed the contract.
Also I dig the creative options here. They make a ton of sense to me.
Though it’s impossible to say what Stanton would do when his opt out comes, there’s his injury history to consider and also Harper, Kershaw and Machado free agent contracts could presumably tie up payroll for three of the 6-8 teams in the league that could absorb such a huge contract too.
14 teams have payrolls in excess of $150 million. All of them can afford him. In addition, the Cardinals (who have been named numerous times as a fit for Stanton), Rockies and Astros have revenue that would allow a bump in payroll to fit in Stanton. That is 17 of 30 that can afford his contract.
just because teams have a payroll of 150 mil+ doesn’t mean all 15 are willing to invest 1/5 of that payroll to one player for the next 10+ years. never mind the opt-out which is a major issue to the acquiring team. now Stanton is great but why would 15 teams want to handcuff themselves, I see maybe 4 or 5. But there is a big difference between 150 million payroll and one that adds Stanton and pushes it to 175+ as the years go on and salary gets higher…
You got it backwards. Any team that would acquire Stanton would hope beyond hope that he plays well enough in his agee 28, 29, and 30 seasons that he would opt out of the remaining $218 million owed for his age 31-37 seasons. If he opts out that means they got 3 extraordinary seasons for $25-26 million per season and are not responsible for those relatively expensive years from age 31 on when he will be in decline.
Stanton’s gotta go… Superstar with a diva attitude. We need young players and the salary relief. And pitching. Lots of it.
in what way does Stanton have a diva attitude?
He has a positive attitude toward his teammates but has always complained against the organization for the moves they make, yet still signs a 13 year contract. Yes, it’s a no-brainer to sign the contract as a professional, but he rarely has anything positive to say about the organization. That’s just my point of view and the vibe I get from watching him speak to the media. Not taking away the fact that he’s a great player, it’s just his attitude doesn’t fit in with what the marlins need right now: younger, hungrier players… Stanton needs to go to LA or New York…
I mean, I guess thats a valid point, just not one I agree with. I think its justified, but its thats your take, I have no rebuttal
Stanton is the heart of his team. He’s exactly what the Fish need. He’s being traded bc of previous ownership ineptitude and current ownership unwillingness to pay his contract. Also, What good does he have to say about the Marlins previous ownership? Absolutely nothing. You have no idea what you’re talking man
True… he’s the heart of the team, and maybe if loria managed the team better and made the right moves, I wouldn’t say Stanton is a diva. Maybe you don’t think he’s a diva, but that is my point on view so I’ll Respect your view and I’ll keep mine… Logically speaking, it only makes sense to trade Stanton now, with the way his contract is set up and with the dead money tied up in guys like Chen, Prado, Volquez, etc… Stanton even said he doesn’t wanna go through a rebuild and marlins will not be able to contend if he stays… Marlins will NEVER be a major MLB market unfortunately, and that’s where Loria and co. Made terrible choices. They needed to commit to scouting, sign guys to long term deals where applicable… Stanton, Yelich, Realmuto, etc. But if there’s no money left for pitching, they aren’t going anywhere… that’s the main point I was trying to make…
Now you’re making some sense.
You have no idea what you’re talking about lmao
Marlins need pitching and trading Stanton brings back prospects AND salary relief to acquire pitching… I didn’t intend for my comment to come off as rocket science…
Agreed but Diva attitude couldn’t be farther from the truth.
Agreed, def not a diva, he wants to win, he took less money up front so they could build around him and they didn’t
Good luck finding a taker for Prado. He’s gone from one injury to another over the past couple years. Even if he was 100% healthy going forward I’m not sure many teams would give up much, if anything, to take on the remainder of his contract. I’m surprised Chen wasn’t included in the report. I’m sure MIA would love to wipe that albatross off the books, but maybe they’re resigned to the fact that he’s immovable until he proves otherwise.
I’d personally hold on to Prado until his value rises back a little bit more… hopefully around the deadline.
.291/.340/.422/.762 career line. Played 153 games in 2016 and hit .305 with .775 OPS. 2017 was his 1st season with less than 129 games since he came up FT in 2009. Considered one of the best clubhouse presences in the league. I think there will be plenty of people calling about him and a number of teams willing to take a chance on a rebound. That is exactly the kind of bench player playoff contending teams want. Marlins will still have to eat half his contract, but they will get a good prospect for him
There is only a handful of teams “willing” and capable of taking on a contract at that cost..(Giants, Cards, and Phillies). LA can afford it but are planning on shedding payroll, and NY simply can’t do it because of their tax threshold situation (or something similar to that). It’s either one of the Giants, Cards and Phils
Red Sox can as well.
But don’t have a clear need in the OF and are already being linked to JD Martinez as a DH.
That might be true but Stanton is the big splash that DD is known for we will see simply saying that the Red Sox can afford the contract if they elect to go that route.
I see him in Boston he wants to win
Right, I get the winning part but the moment he struggles or suffers with injuries the media and fans will be all over him based on his contract.
History repeating itself in Boston
If Upton opts out, the Angels should be able to absorb salaries–in fact, Angels could use all three, at 2b, 3b, and OF, if the Marlins don’t want top and/or near-major league ready prospects that is. Whether that’s a wise move is a different question, but it could be a gamble worth taking on–if all it costs is money.
Halo’s ‘18 opening day lineup
2b – Gordon
cf – Trout
rf – Stanton
dh – Pujols
lf – Calhoun
1b – Cron
ss – Simmons
c – Maldonado
3b – Prado/Valbuena
Gordon would be a 210 to 220 hitter at Angels stadium. He was a 240 hitter a Dodgers stadium and take in consideration that players averages always drop going from the NL to the AL. The Angels can get Nunez without having to give up prospects for less per year than Gordon.
I honestly dont think he wants to go to STL it’s not a big enough market.
14 teams had 2017 payrolls in excess of $150 million. All of those teams can afford Stanton. In addition, the Cardinals (who have been named numerous times as a fit for Stanton), Rockies and Astros have revenue that would allow a bump in payroll to fit in Stanton. That is 17 of 30 teams that can afford his contract.
Brewers should go get Dee Gordon. Perfect fit
Corbin Burnes and another fringe prospect for Dee?
Gordon for Isan Diaz straight up he is a top 100 prospect and Keston Hirura is the future at second for the Brewers
Dee Gordon isn’t worth giving up Isan Diaz, give up a lower level outfielder like Trent Clark or Monte Harrison
Hey Marlins fans…nice new ownership. Lots of chiefs and no money.
I personally feel like the Dodgers should try to get Stanton, he’s from LA and I’m sure the Dodgers can get him without giving their top prospects. Maybe offer Puig and a few B level prospects.
I do have a feeling either Boston, Giants or Cards end up going hard after Stanton and I think the Giants end up being the team to get him.
Giants would be out if the Marlins don’t pick up any cash. Their payroll is huge, especially if Cueto opts in, which he almost certainly will, they have some guys who need new contracts coming up (Posey, MadBum), and they’re already hovering near the tax. No way they pick up Stanton wiith no money helping out.
Doesn’t feel like a Cards-type move either.
I’m looking at the Phils because they can, have a huge need and want to start winning a little. I’m looking at the Angels because Moreno is old and rich and crazy (and because they are desperate to not bomb in their Trout years). I’m not seeing a whole lot of other possibilities.
Although it does not seem like a Cards move and I absolutely believe they will make a play to get him, the feeling in St.Louis is Stanton does not want to go because of Matheny. Cards are flush with money and prospects and say they will be active this winter, sadly I don’t see any major moves.
When did Stanton say he doesn’t like Matheny? Source?
Posey’s contract isn’t up until 2022. Stanton may not approve a trade with Philly, since he’s from the west coast, and wants a team that will contend. And I’m not sure Moreno, after getting burned by the Pujols and Hamilton contracts, wants to reverse his desire to get under the CBT threshold, and take on that much long-term salary commitment .
He hasn’t. This is total conjecture. Heyman had one article back in July that inferred the feeling in the ‘clubhouse’ was that Stanton might not want to go to STL. Stanton’s never said it.
I think it’s not a big enough market for him
It’s not ideal, especially for a guy who grew up on the west coast. But if he truly wants to win (as he says), STL is about the only club who’s close to the playoffs that will make a strong push for him, most likely.
I agree with that, how times have changed 10 yrs ago the Yankees would have jumped but now they are getting fiscally responsible. go figure
We don’t want Puig. It would take one or two decent prospects I would think… maybe Yadier Alvarez and Starling Heredia plus another lower level prospect?
We?
WHEEEEOOOOO WHEEEOOOOO everyone clear the way!!! Here comes the “we” Police!!!!
also “our” or “us”…..
I agree. Except i would want Verdugo, Mitchell White and Edwin Rios.
Puig will make over $9 Mil in ’18 and is a FA after that……Not a target for the Marlins….I wouldn’t think.
I bet they’ll trade Pederson before even thinking about trading Verdugo. I also think that White could be part of the deal…
Look deeper and find a guy named D.J. Peters……Marlins should go after him. He could be the next Stanton Beast….but not for a few years. Think Rhys Hoskins type power…..needs to work on plate discipline.
If I’m not mistaken the Giants already have something like $150 million plus committed for 2018. Can they really afford to add even more?
The Giant’s own their park, it’s paid off now, and they have nearly as much money as the Dodgers who have been out-spending them by about $100m more per year.. If SF decides Stanton is worth blowing past the CBT threshold, they can do it. There are several obstacles to the Giants obtaining Stanton, but money isn’t one of them.
I mean, they CAN afford to. Charles Johnson is loaded and the Giants have shown a willingness to spend if they think it’ll help them win.
However, I don’t think they will. Stanton is a massive gamble, and the Giants have seen a few too many upside-down contracts over the past few seasons (Cain, Zito, Pence, to name a few). If anything goes wrong, being on the hook for Stanton could cripple a team.
It isn’t $150, I think that number included Cain’s option but that got bought out when he retired. I think it is something more like $130 but they also may look at options to dump some of it by eating and trading if it is possible.
I agree in general. Like I said, there obstacles, but the money isn’t one of them. One would think they would shy away from Stanton’s contract with the under water deals they’ve made in the past, but the Giants appear to be one of the more aggressive teams pursuing Stanton. It’s difficult to justify what one would think they would, or should, do with the public statements.
Giants only do it if they eat most of the contract, which I don’t think Cards would. But SF would have a rough time finding prospects – their farm is barren. Would have to be guys off MLB roster, right?
As the article states, the Marlins want to be rid of the entire contract, which means they can expect only a modest return. The Giants farm is not barren. They have some reasonable prospects, just not a lot of highly ranked ones, but given the parameters, their weak farm is not a barrier to making the deal.
Hahahahahaha. No. No. The Marlins aren’t getting ANY of that for Stanton. Unless they feel like eating half his contract.
The dodgers don’t really have a place for him, they have been log jammed in their outfield for a while.
How many OF do the Dodgers have that are better than Stanton?
3 team trade. Dodgers Orioles Marlins.
Machado to Miami
Stanton to LA
Dee Gordon and starting pitchers to Baltimore
LA would be a great fit for Stanton, but they are not getting him for Pig and b level prospects.
That is more than enough if they take the whole contract
1 season of Pig is worth 3-10 of Stanton? You’re drinking heavily right?
Puig has two more years and the Dodgers probably aren’t looking to trade him
You guys gotta stop acting like Stanton’s deal is horrible, just wait till Harper and Machado sign.
There are a couple differences there though. First of all, Harper and Machado are both younger than Stanton. Second, whichever teams signs one or both of those players will be paying what they feel that player is worth…trading for Stanton is taking on someone else’s bad decision on contract structuring. And then signing Harper or Machado requires zero prospects to be traded…just cash.
Harper and Machado will be 26 when they sign $400 million deals. Stanton is 28 and coming off one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory.
What the Harper and Machado deals will do is make it a no-brainer for Stanton to opt out if he has years anywhere close to 2017.
He passed through waivers. No one even wanted to negotiate trading a crappy player for that entire contract. That’s how scary it is to teams.
Your assertion doesn;t hold water. 40% of all players under contract passed through waivers including Donaldson, Votto and many other top players. Just because the Marlins put him on waivers didn’t mean they had to accept a crappy trade. It’s a procedural formality.
Votto does have a bad contract and Donaldson cleared because everyone knew the Jays wouldn’t trade him so claiming him would have been a waste of time (I would have claimed him anyway, but whatever)
40% of all players on a contract passed through waivers.
Huizenga, Loria and now Jeter’s group….MLB should just screw the Marlins owners like the team has screwed the Dade County taxpayers…..fold the team and pay them nothing. Apparently no one down there cares. Every good Marlins team has been dismantled….in one of the largest markets in the country. Now they’re dismantling again…why, so Jeter can get an immediate return on his investment? Fold the Marlins. Fold the Rays. Get out of Florida, MLB. They don’t care.
Loria set up the Stanton contract with an exit strategy–his exit strategy. It only works on a high-revenue team–but those teams right now seem to be focused on Luxury Tax issues. You would have to be super-creative (or find a partner that didn’t calculate value well–like the Red Sox did with the Dodgers several years ago) in order to derive much value. It not that Stanton isn’t terrific, it’s just he’s too costly. This is a place where absolute cost (including long term) is really meaningful beyond $/WAR
Viva Las Vegas!!!
What in the hell does Vegas have to do with any of this????
Was meant for @wjf010 post. Calm the hell down!!!
14 teams have payrolls in excess of $150 million. All of them can afford him. In addition, the Cardinals (who have been named numerous times as a fit for Stanton), Rockies and Astros have revenue that would allow a bump in payroll to fit in Stanton. That is 17 of 30 that can afford his contract.
A N G E L S
If the price is right (and Upton opts out), it actually is a great fit: three holes, three players….
Of course!! The Pujols contract has been great. Why not do it all again?
Fans in St.Louis were rejoicing when Pujols left. Not because he was less than average at that point but because of his contract demands, which were astronomical, would have crippled the Cards. Thank god the Angles came in and took the hit.
No they weren’t. Lol
Sarcasm accepted !
The Pujols contract was great, but the Hamilton contract might have been even better.
A Stanton deal will probably require the Marlins paying a significant portion on the post-opt-out of his contract in the event he flops and becomes an albatross.
Getting rid of Gordon may be as simple as giving him away to any team willing to take him.
The Marlins will have to include talent to trade all of Prados contract. Coupling him with Ozuna should allow them to get a Top 50-100 guy in return.
The Marlins may have to pay a small amount of the post opt-out portion of Stanton’s contract. $5-7 million per season would be enough.
Ozuna will get that type of return without the albatross of Prado’s deal. The Marlins are looking to clear about half of Prado’s contract and won’t expect much in return.
It is absolutely embarrassing that a team has to trade a player coming off of one of the best seasons in mlb history, purely because of finances.
Here is the proof that the mlb needs a hard cap. Players like Stanton DO NOT get traded in other sports.
The mlb is very flawed. The marlins will embark on yet another rebuild for what? A chance for a two or three year window to contend until they can’t afford their team and have to rebuild again. The haves and have nots in the mlb is crazy compaired to other sports.
Want further proof look at the rays and athletics. They are both great run organizations that are constantly having to rebuild because of finances.
MLB needs some changes for parity badly
I’ve never seen anything that indicates MLB has parity issues in comparison to other pro sports leagues.
Name another league where this type of trade happens? Especially if marlins end up with no greats prospects in the deal?
Also what other league has a payroll difference like the dodgers and padres this year.
Should have a salary cap and salary floor.
Not all sports have guaranteed contracts that force them to do salary dumps.
All are guaranteed except nfl. And in the nfl teams are not dumping top players in their prime for financial reasons. If this trade goes down as a salary dump with no major prospects involved that’s an inditment on the mlb.
NFL is also able to easily restructure their deals to cheat the salary cap. They can work around their garbage contracts a heck of a lot easier.
I said there’s no parity problem, as compared to other pro sports leagues. But there is certainly more movement of prime-level star players. And there are big payroll disparities year over year. Whether those things are problems, or whatever, depends upon one’s perspective, but in terms of competitiveness MLB is in decent shape.
How could they not be problems if you are a fan of the athletics, rays, pirates, padres, marlins, etc. and then you have the Yankees, Giants, Red Sox, Cubs, dodgers etc. these teams are consistently good and hardly ever truly rebuild.
Teams like the Yankees dodgers and Red Sox more or less buy their way into competitive seasons. In no other sport is it possible to “buy” your way into being competitive.
Small market teams in mlb start with a huge disadvantage compared to small markets in other sports.
Also, you cannot deny a correlation between money spent and playoff appearances in the MLB. Also, I do not believe any in the last 15 years has won the World Series in the bottom half of payroll.
But the Red Sox, yankees and cubs all just came off rebuilds without big purchases and are competitive
Yes there is a parity problem because there is no other sport where you can buy your way into being competitive season after season like the mlb. Every other league the team salaries are relatively close.
You can’t tell me the Yankees are better run than the rays and that’s why they consistently win. No they have way more financial resources so they stay competitive.
Time to relocate the team, or sell the team. The Rays aren’t really trying to win.
“Name another league where this type of trade happens? Especially if marlins end up with no greats prospects in the deal?”
The NFL. Texans dumped Brock Osweiler and a 2nd round pick to get out from a contract the team couldn’t afford. And they have everything you want…a salary cap, a spending floor, and revenue sharing, and yet bad decisions by team management can still harm them.
Baseball does not need a salary cap, and using poorly functioning clubs is a bad example. Yes, the Rays have struggled for years. Could that be because they wasted their first ten years of existence being absolutely awful, and alienating any potential fan-base they could have developed? They came into the league the same year as the Diamondbacks, both with blank slates and the potential of new fans. Arizona worked quickly to generate interest, building a team that won 100 games in its second year of existence, and winning the World Series in their fourth. They were proactive in attaining a fan base that would support their team. That led to ticket sales, TV ratings—which led to a big TV deal. The Rays, meanwhile, replayed the early ’60s Mets, being awful and then getting worse. By the time they were good anyone who would have cared didn’t anymore, and they lack the revenues those fans might have generated.
As for the A’s they play in a dump, and think the game is played on paper. They used “Moneyball” to build a team that was good enough to compete, but never had the strength to get over the hump. Fans got tired of ALDS exits. And they play in an absolute dump. Want to attract more fans? Build a new ballpark. Yeah, dip into your own pockets and pay for a stadium in an area that you can build. The A’s want to move to San Jose to tap into the wealthy Silicon Valley client, but the Giants own the territory rights (because the A’s foolishly gave them away decades ago; not the Giants’ fault). They made their bed, now they should lie in it. As should every other team.
No, not everyone in baseball can be the Dodgers or Yankees, but every teams gets about $60M+ from revenue sharing (national TV deal, advertising, etc.) money, and then generate their own. At bare minimum a team should be able to generate $150M in revenues per year, and any well-run club in any market will do that.
Your comment shows how little you know about sports. You just compaired oseweiler to Stanton. Oseweiler got dumped because he is terrible, Stanton just came off a great season. These situations are not remotely close to the same.
There does need to be a salary cap. The Yankees dodgers Red Sox etc buy their way into contention, while the lower spending teams have to wait for a few year window maybe. That is bad for baseball.
If the salary cap was such a bad thing for competitive balance, then why do all of the major sports have them?
Your examples are awful. You realize that when the diamondback were winning the World Series in the early 2000’s they had one of the highest payrolls in the mlb.
You are uninformed and making my point for me.
Wonder why the Yankees and Red Sox have had some many recent postseason appearances? They spend their way there. They aren’t better run than the rays. I would love to see what they would do with a Rays payroll.
Yankees, Red Sox, dodgers, etc. start out with an advantage that does not exist in any other sport period.
The mlb finally atleast put a hard cap on international signings, so the big spenders couldn’t just buy up the big time prospects.
Other sports have salary caps because pro sports are a governmentally privileged monopoly with huge bargaining power that want to limit player salaries. MLBPA has just maintained enough power to avoid a similar situation. Right or wrong, good or bad, that’s the core reason: it’s about money, not the sanctity of competition. And, as I said, baseball has as much or more parity than the other sports. Whether an observer likes or dislikes the amount of player movement is largely a matter of taste, I think, but the reserve clause has already had its day in court, as it were.
Believe me I understand it’s about money, and the players don’t want to give up any, but as the margin widens between haves and have nots there will be a change.
As I said too show me another example in sports where a team can buy playoff births? ( dodgers, Yankees) and you have to be in the playoffs to win the World Series.
Also, if Stanton gets traded as a pure salary dump that is embarrassing for baseball and a slap in the face to all marlins fans. No other professional sports teams operate that way. With a cap Stanton would be signed to a manageable contract for the marlins like every other superstar signed to long contracts in our sports.
I’m not going to argue the reason why there isnt a cap, you are right MLBPA is strong, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that there needs to be one.
There is an unfair advantage to large market teams that does not exist in other sports.
The luxury tax and hard cap on international signings are a step in the right direction, but there needs to be more.
The Cubs just completed a total rebuild.
Even during their rebuild their payroll was $100 million and over. And then when they started to go for it $160 million plus. Look at teams like the athletics, rays, pirates, marlins, etc spend $100 million or less when they are trying to contend. Do not use the Cubs as an example.
They do not make the playoffs the last three years with out their big financial backing.
Marlins payroll is $135 MM for next season right now, as high as the Cubs were before their rebuild, and even if they are able to trade away enough players to get down to their goal it’s still $90 million which is about the same as the Cubs $94 million in 2014.
There projected payroll for next season is that high, but they will trade people away and it will be much lower.
The marlins highest payroll ever was last season at $115, which was still lower third of the mlb.
Even when the Cubs were rebuilding they were spending $100 plus most seasons.
When they won the World Series payroll was last year payroll was $171 million.
Your arguments are pointless
Kansas City Royals in 2015
won the WS
and had a small payroll
NBA and NFL are very dynasty driven. MLB not even close. Small market teams have to deal with cycles of contention, but that’s the reality of the sport.
I’m not going to debate the parity issue with you. But a trade like trading Stanton for only salary relief does not ever happen in other sports
Chitownsox11 don’t go down this road with some of these guys. Most of the posters on here that will bicker on this subject with you don’t even watch the NFL and NBA…
To be fair, the enormity of Stanton’s contract, in comparison to the league average, could only happen in MLB. In a league that allows contracts like Stanton’s (and in the future Harper’s, Machado’s, etc.), the ability to trade that contract becomes a necessary aspect. The players themselves are the ones blocking any sort of cap, so it makes no sense to rail against a team doing what’s necessary given the situation.
Didn’t say the problem was with the team the problem is with the league. With a cap Stanton would have a reasonable contract and would stay on the marlins. The current structure is great for the fans of the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, dodgers, Cubs and sucks for the marlins, rays, pirates, athletics.
every other league has some type of cap, and don’t even mention the luxury tax line because it is absurdly high.
You have a point but it’s also a combination of mlb being the most powerful union in America
Look at the rays and athletics they are good run organizations, but what is holding them back financials. Look at the nfl jaguars and browns, both suck but not because of financials, they just make terrible choices. Jaguars and browns do not start at a disadvantage like many small market baseball teams do.i
Look at the NBA where the cavs have the highest payroll in the NBA, or close to it last couple years. Think the Indians are ever going to do that in the mlb? No way.
Every salary cap sport has this issue in spades. Every single team in a salary cap sport does this very thing-it’s called clearing cap space. The MLB has great parity, otherwise teams like the royals and Astros would never have a chance. The only organizations that aren’t traditionally competitive are simply not run well.
Why do the Yankees never rebuild? They buy their way into competitive seasons. Name another sport where a teams can buy their way into staying competitive?
Also, I don’t know what sports you are watching but no teams are clearing cap space by trading a player like Stanton. Your comments are very misguided
It’s a matter of degree. In the NFL the disparity in salaries isn’t as great as in MLB. But NFL teams do cut players they don’t want to, and it’s usually established, higher paid players, to clear cap space. No, no one like Stanton is cut in the NFL, but if the NFL had a similar salary disparity you would. And that salary disparity is due yo the player’s union, not the owners.
Okay my main point is the mlb needs to get with the times and get some sort of salary cap and salary floor. The closer the teams are in salary the better and more competitive the sport will be.
There is no other sport where teams can use their financial power as a means to stay competitive ( Yankees dodgers) two perfect examples.
The mlb needs some big changes
But it’s not going to happen, The owners and player’s union fought tooth and nail over a salary cap. The owners wanted one, but it was a total deal breaker for the players, hence the CBT. I agree that teams like the NYYs can and do, buy the ability to contend annually, But small market teams do have a window to compete for a WS title. The window is just smaller. But also the Twins, Royals, and A’s have all won the WS since the last Dodger team won it.
The other major difference between mlb, nfl, and nba is in the national tv contracts.NFL teams gather in major revenue even before selling any tickets bc of contract with Fox, CBS, and ESPN. MLB teams have primarily local/regional tv contracts that are more beneficial to some than others.
It could happen. If there is a lock out who is going to loose more? Almost every if not all mlb owners are independly wealthy. They no not need money from their teams to survive, the players on the other hand could not. Owners need to play hard ball and get a cap. Every other league has one and is beneficial for the league.
What the Yankees and dodgers are able to do Maunly because of their payroll is bad for the sport. The dodgers just bought their way into the playoffs 4 years in a row.
Think the dodgers are ever dumping kershaw because they can’t afford him?
There are certain teams that are guranteed to be in the hunt for the playoffs every year simply because of how much they can spend. This does not happen in any other sport. That is bad for baseball.
My guess is the Sox take on a majority, if not all of his salary, and trade betts along with a mid level prospect. Marlins get a marketable superstar and a prospect in return. Sox need power and Marlins need something to build on. I don’t think any other franchise can offer a direct replacement for a significant savings.
Nice try
The Red Sox aren’t trading Betts and taking on a majority of not all of that contract not a chance in the world of that happening. Betts has way more surplus value alone then what Stanton is worth with his contract.
Ha! Betts is like 10x the better asset than Stanton.
Marlins would jump on that immediately. They’d just end up flipping Betts for some high level prospects
Why would the Sox trade a possible future MVP, with 3 more years of control, for an expensive player, MVP or not, that might opt out in 2 years?
JBJ and a 2 top 30 prospects and you have the beginning of a trade. The Red Sox or any other team will be eating the vast majority of Stanton’s contract.
While there’s no way the Red Sox would ever trade Betts there’s also no way the Marlins trade for Bradley. He’s expensive, has only 2 years of club control, and plays a position they already have someone for. Try again.
Um he isn’t expensive and pretty sure he is controlled through 2020 so that is three more years but and if the Marlins trade Stanton they could use JBJ probably move Yelich to right.
JBJ enters arbitration for the 1st time this offseason and isn’t a free agent until 2021. JBJ is the CF in Boston and Betts could move to CF when Stanton takes over RF. Yelich could move to RF to make room for JBJ. Try again.
Benintendi would move to Center if they traded JBJ.
IF Stanton’s stays healthy, contract gonna look like a bargain compared to other superstars future contract like Harper/Trout/Kersh.
Huge IF however.
Stanton’s nowhere near as good as those three though. 2017 could easily be an aberration for him.
He absolutely is as good/valuable as Harper/Machado when healthy. That’s the issue, not his talent…
I only disagree because defensively those two are studs, he’s pretty average
It’s not going to happen, but I would love to see Atlanta make the trade for Stanton.
The only way they are trading Prado is if they pay him down to like $5m a year, and even so, the return isn’t going to be that great. He’s on the wrong side of 35 and he’s been dealing with injuries and hasn’t played very well.
Gordon and Stanton will no doubt draw significant interest, both will fetch solid returns.
Come on Cardinals make the move once you can! He better be in A Cards uniform by spring training
That is a pipe dream. Stanton has a full no trade protection and does NOT want to end up in StL.
You’ve said that twice-what is your source?
Stanton him self. He diddnt single out St. Louis, but he said somewhere I the West Coast.
He said he would go to La and Boston and said no to Phillies so
I meant to say he preferred the West Coast, I’m not actually sure what I actually said there though.
Of the three, Gordon is the easiest to trade. There are teams that can use his speed. Toronto for one comes to mind. Prado will be hard to move even if the Marlins add talent to the deal. Stanton’s contract is a major stumbling block. Trading him for next to nothing isn’t going to go over well at all in South Florida. The players that the Marlins will get the most for are Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto & Bour. They are assets that a lot of teams would want
There are dozens of second basemen on the market this year. Gordon gets you salary relief and a single A reilever.
I disagree
Gordon was worth 3.1 WAR (or by fangraphs standards $24.8m)
He is owed an AAV of $12,633,000 over the next three seasons with a $1,000,000 buyout guaranteed for the fourth year.
While the return won’t be overwhelming, I believe he will be able to net at least a B level prospect or a few C+’s.
Let’s take the Angels as an example
I would estimate that a deal would look something like this:
The Los Angeles Angels acquire Dee Gordon and $10,000,000 (paying him down to about $9m AAV) for Troy Montgomery and maybe a lottery ticket
You can’t use Fangraphs standards for all players. A team needs around 40 WAR to get in the low to mid 90’s wins. If a team paid $7 million for each 1 WAR, 40 WAR would cost $280 million. The Cubs and Nationals had payrolls around $170 million while the Indians and Astros have payrolls around $125 million.
Gordon would likely get a 3 year $35 million deal on the open market, but probably not much more than that. Neil Walker is a free agent. Would a team give up something for Gordon when they might get Walker for 3 years and $27 million? A team can get Cesar Hernandez for a lot less money. Is he a better trade target? There aren’t many teams looking for a 2B. I doubt the return will be much.
Yuli Gurriel had a WAR of 3.2. Is he worth $25 million? Something’s not adding up.
That’s because people are misapplying the 1 WAR = $8 million. If a team paid $8 million for 1 WAR, then a playoff team with 40 WAR would have a payroll of $320 million. No team has even 75% of that and most don’t have half that. Because 1 WAR isn’t worth $8 million.
In the past they’ve calculated how much 1 WAR costs on the free agent market. I’m not sure how they did it but I assume they divided total salary by WAR for the players. Last year, however, Colby Rasmus got $5 million after a 2.2 WAR season. Teammate Logan Morrison got $2.5 million after a 0.5 WAR season. Justin Turner was highly paid at $16 million but that was after a 5.0 WAR season.
Kanley Jansen got $16 million after a 2.5 WAR season. WAR calculates all innings the same, however, and MLB GMs do not. So relievers will usually have higher WAR costs than other players. So you really can’t lump everyone together.
Stanton for Jose Reyes and a truckload of Corona.
Good luck trading Stanton and getting good back with that opt out cause
IF, if and if the marlins covered his opt out, I’d be Willing to send Edwin Diaz/Mitch haniger/Kyle seager their way. The offset between Stanton aav and seagers is a wash and the ms get a power bat to add with Cruz and cano. Segura/cano/Stanton/Cruz. 1-4. Sweet Jesus.
This is why you’re not a gm
That would make two of us then. Diaz and haniger have value and Kyle seagers contract is more than his production. For 19mm he’s all
But a goner this offseason.
So we trade our 23 year old closer, young cf/rf that played like an MVP candidate, and third baseman for a right fielder? Where are we going to find a replacement to play centerfield, a replacement to close at the level of Diaz(I don’t think Vincent could handle it) and a replacement gold glove third baseman to hit .250 and 25 bombs? I’m all for trading prospects if it’s the right deal, but no way we trade major leaguers, that just creates more problems.
You get it kid
Sounds like he is taking a book out of the Os play book
Trade the future for a quick bandaid
Trying to be the Yankees bosox and doyuers of the northwest are we hacks
Mariners need a rebuild
They got some quality position players
But no depth, the pitching is suspect as well
So… hacks what will you do?
The reality is that Stanton is untradable. It’s fun to make up deals.
I have to agree. $295M is a massive number no matter how you spin it. Would a modern day Babe Ruth or Ted Williams in his prime would be worth that.
Absolutely if not more
Ted Williams basically played DH caliber defense. I wonder how much of an effect that would have on his WAR and the amount of money he’d make.
If they had the numbers they had when they played they would be the highest paid players in baseball regardless of defense.
A 27 year old Williams or Ruth would get the kind of deal they are talking about Harper and Machado getting. 10-12 years and $400+ million.
Williams age 27 season was .342/.497/.667/1.164 with 38 dingers and an 11.8 WAR. He did that after missing 3 seasons while serving in the military.
Ruth had put up two 13+ WAR seasons at 25 and 26 then slumped to a 6.5 WAR season at age 27.
Dodgers and cardinals both have the prospects. How much they would give up for that contract is the question.
Not to mention he’s got full nontrade protection. LA makes the most sense as he’s from there. He will want to go to a team committed to winning is a certainty. Stl and LA certainly fit the picture
I think Prado would be better off going back to a super utility role to get the most value out of him. Now I have to admit the Angels are the team that could benefit from a trade with the Marlins especially if you could add Straily in it . The sad part is Loria is sitting at home when he should be the one suffering for the mess. This all started with the new Stadium, it should’ve never been built and the team should have been moved to Montreal
What about a 3 way deal? Stanton to Boston, Price(and money) to STL, Pham to MIA.
You are the King of Derp with this comment… Good Lord.
First, I have no idea what derp means. Maybe your little 13 year old friends invented the word.
Second, isnt it your bedtime, young man?
Third. Did mommy make mac-n-cheese for supper? If so, that’s totally awesome sauce.
Lol wut
That’s a great deal if your Boston!
His Boston what? Finish your sentence.
Stanton to STL for Piscotty and Aledmys Diaz?
I don’t see the Marlins getting much in prospects for Stanton.
The primary reason is that the Marlins want completely out of his contract and are offering no salary relief to the acquiring team. There’s only a handful of teams that can afford the contract straight up. Then, Stanton has a full no trade clause which limits those teams even further.
It essentially will come down to bargaining. The acquiring team knows the Marlins are desperate to be out. This isn’t like the Padres holding onto Hand until they get the offer that they want. The Marlins will just take what they can and be done.
I have question. Florida doesn’t have income tax do they so that is going to prob be a very big factor in where Stanton is willing to go cause that could cost him millions in taxes right?
Nice One Stubby……..at least YOU realize that Stanton is going to be the one to decide here….NOT Jeter…….NOT the other teams.
I love all the comments that say “a player should come to the Blue Jays”…….my first thought is…….”Not Everyone Wants To Live In Canada – The Frozen Tundra!!!”…..LOL
How is Stanton’s opt-out a negative to any team that acquires him for a modest package of prospects and pays most or all of his contract?
Stanton stays, the acquiring team pays him through 2027 as planned.
Stanton opts out, the acquiring team gets three years of Stanton’s prime for $77MM and those lesser prospects with the added bonus of escaping $218MM in future commitments.
How is Stanton opting out not a win for any team that gives up lesser talent in exchange for taking on that contract?
The opt out is a negative because Stanton only opts out if he is worth more than the remaining money on the deal. The team carries the risk of a 10 year albatross without the potential upside of a 10 year star player.
True, but if an acquiring team is only likely to give up a few modest prospects in exchange for taking on most or all of the contract.
Stanton bolts, they still get three years of an excellent player for lesser prospects than it would have cost that team to acquire a comparable player for just three years.
If he opts out it is because he has excelled and thinks he can get more money than the $218. That would mean 6 + WAR seasons. He would have provided $50 MM in surplus value. That is worth an elite prospect and a couple more good prospects. If he doesn’t opt out then they get 10 years of him at a lower level of production. If all they get is the next 3 at 4.8 WAR on average, his career average, then he would have provided $32-35 MM in surplus value. Well worth several good prospects. If he provides 3 WAR on average after that its a break even for the team.
If he opts out it means they would prefer he didn’t. If he doesn’t it means they would prefer he does. Opt out is a negative for the team no matter how you cut it, slice it or dice it.
The opt out is bad for teams
Stanton to Boston for Trey Ball and a diaper signed by Will Middlebrooks
I think I see them trading Yelich or Ozuna before Prado. If they stick to the rebuild, and trade Stanton, Gordon, Yelich, and or Ozuna, they could stack the farm system.
The Cubs might have some interest in Dee Gordon as a leadoff hitting second baseman. A straight up trade for Javier Baez might make some sense for both clubs.
Both are GG caliber defensively at 2B but otherwise different players. Like Baez, Gordon doesn’t walk much but his OBP is much higher and fueled by his high BA. Gordon did surpass 200 hits in his past two full season which was interrupted in 2016 with a PED suspension. Of course, Gordon was also the N.L.’s leader in SB’s in 2014, 2015 and 2017 and scored 114 runs for Miami last season with the help of Giancarlo Stanton’s big season. He’s also under control for 3 more seasons through 2020. Baez has two extra years of control and won’t be arb-eligible until 2019.
The Cubs are also one of the few teams who could probably handle Stanton’s contract so an expanded blockbuster with the Marlins might not be out of the realm of possibility. Chicago lacks the farm system of other organizations but does have some other quality pre-arb eligible players on their MLB roster that might entice Miami. What say you?
I say Baez is much more valuable than Gordon in terms of his glove, salary, and remaining years of control for CHI to make that trade.
The only way I see the Cubs acquiring Stanton is if Heyward and multiple significant assets went the other way, which doesn’t seem likely given the “preferred path” described above.
Heyward has the NTC and has one of the worst contracts in MLB…
I know a lot of people are saying this is t what the cardinals do but honestly I disagree…the cardinals would easily give up little prospects for three years of Stanton…then he opts out…still get three years…if he doesn’t opt out his contract isn’t horrible if he plays anywhere close to this year which he should
Stanton will decide what happens. It really doesn’t matter “What Teams Are Willing To Give Up”.
The Astros could be willing to give up Keuchel, Altuve, Bregman, and Springer for Stanton (yes that’s COMPLETELY ridiculous, but I’m making a point here)…..and THAT DEAL DOESN’T GET DONE if Stanton says “Nope….I Hate Texas, and the Tax Rate Is Too High”………(I’d bet he would approve a trade there in a minute, even if it’s NOT “on the Coast”)
That’s the reality here. The Marlins Screwed Up BIG TIME by advertising their Payroll Expectations for 2018. They should’ve played coy, and said…..”We’ll keep him around if we don’t get the right package….No Problem”. They could STILL accept a minimal package for him, but they might get a better one.
Stanton to the Red Sox for Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Chavis.
I can’t believe all the negative comments about Prado. He’s a career .291 hitter and this is the first season he’s had any trouble with injuries, and it all started because of the hamstring injury in the WBC, where he, like always, was giving 110%.
I understand that he’s 34, but he’s got a consistent track record of durability and consistency. Given the offseason to get healthy, I expect him to rebound and be worth every penny of his 2018 salary.
If I’m an opposing GM, I’ll gladly buy low on him and sit back and enjoy the positive impact he has on my 2018 roster.
“I can’t believe all the negative comments about Prado”
You then proceed to list many reasons why people wouldn’t be thrilled about Prado. You also fail to mention that his contract isn’t particularly great, especially for a guy who likely will continue to get worse, due to the aging curve.
How was he listing all the reasons why people wouldn’t be thrilled about Prado? He listed the only two things wrong with Prado, 2017 was injury filled, and he is 34, but also said he is a player who gives 110%, consistent, and has shown to be very durable. I’d like to add on that his defense at third is consistently been good as well.
Stanton is a Dodger 100% if they lose the World Series to the Astros. They’re going to want to get back to the big show
Maybe, but it’s definitely not 100%. They have plenty of OFers. They have 3 guys who can play CF, Pederson, Taylor, and Bellinger, plus they have the highly regarded Alex Verdugo. They would be better served by moving Bellinger to the OF and signing someone for 1B for a lot less money. Plus, they had stated in the past that exceeding the CBT threshold was something they would do for only a limited time.
Mariners make a trade for Dee? Finally lock up a true lead-off and move up the Cano at first game plan to fill that need?
They do say they plan on spending some more money…
Jerry Dipoto and the ownership say they want to win now and to make Seattle a great baseball town again. Well here’s how he can get the fans excited and as long as they avoid injury’s, probably make the playoffs. Mariners trade Kyle Lewis, Evan White, and Andrew Moore for Stanton, Gordon and Straily. I don’t know how the financials would work out but I’m guessing they could figure that out.
The Mariners take care of their first base and outfield deficiencies for now and the future in this deal and also add a veteran to help stabilize the rotation. Servais gets a speedy guy on the bases and improves the defense at second base.
A lineup of, Segura, Cano, Cruz, Stanton, Haniger, Seager, Zunino, Gamel and Gordon would be absolutely killer.
And the Marlins shed the payroll like they do badly want to, and get at least one and possibly two top 100 prospects in Lewis and White. And get a young controllable starter to plug into the rotation.
Of course to make up for the possible lack of prospects, the Mariners will have to take on most of both their contracts, and won’t be able to sign any big free agents this offseason. But I think it’s time that Jerry goes all out and proves he wants to win in 2018 and finally end the playoff doubt.
Stanton + Gordon probably makes this too expensive a deal for SEA, even in the Marlins kick in several million. Probably easier for MIA to properly value Straily in a trade not involving Stanton and/or Gordon’s contracts.
Were it not for the Marlins FO wishes to slash payroll, I think an intriguing MIA-SEA blockbuster could be built around Stanton and Gordon going to SEA, Cano reuniting with Jeter in Miami, with whatever cash and prospects had to change hands to make it happen.
Yeah salary is going to be a problem, really wish they could find a way though. And I had actually thought of a deal around Stanton and Gordon for Cano, obviously there’s no way it happens now because of Marlins wanting to shed payroll, but I don’t think it would happen because trades like that don’t ever seem to happen, or at least I don’t think they do.
I really think Gordon is the more key piece SEA needs (taking payroll into consideration). Would love to see that move, especially of Straily could be an added bonus. Let the big wigs go after Stanton.
The Mariners are not giving up Cano regardless. He is part of the Cano-Cruz-Hernandez nucleus that DiPoto is building around.
Subtract Straily who the pitching desperate Mariners probably won’t move and add a couple more pitching prospects to that and with $35-50 million going to Seattle if Stanton doesn’t opt out in 3 years and you have a great deal for both sides.
Can someone, anyone post a story where Stanton says he doesn’t want to play for Cardinals?
Is it possible to reconstruct Stanton Contract??
Since it not favorable contract to any teams as it was Miami old Owner who offer him that contract & no other team did so why should the be the ones to take on that contract..
Are you saying Stanton should take less than what the contract calls for?
They wouldn’t let the Red Sox do it for A-Rod, they won’t be letting Stanton.
I’d love to see the Pirates make a move for Gordon. Put him at second and slide Harrison over to third, Frazier remains as super utility. But alas, in reality the Pirates won’t be adding $38MM of payroll anytime soon.
Marlins pay his contract down to the 22-25mill per year moving forward and then they can get a little bit of a haul.
We know that the Marlins want to cut their 2018 payroll, so my guess is that if the Marlins pay down Stanton’s contract it’ll be for some year after 2018, probably after 2021 if he doesn’t opt out. Stanton is worth his contract right now, but might not be in later years.
I’d guess that if any money is included in the deal, it’ll be a deferred payment, so Jeter can kick the can down the road when the Marlins are theoretically less cash-strapped (and maybe he’s not even an owner anymore).
Coast1……I agree…..and I’ve been saying that for a while now.
Any deal that involves the Marlins paying ANY of Stanton’s salary, it will probably be in a clause that kicks in ONLY “If Stanton Doesn’t Opt-Out”. If Stanton’s “New Team” has him for 3 years/$77 Mil……..that’s a fair price for him right now.
That being said…..If he continues to mash 50+ HR’s for those 3 seasons, and Harper/Machado get their $400 Mil contracts…..I think he could Opt-Out (although I’m not sure he’ll make THAT much more money).
I believe the original reason for his Opt-Out, was because he didn’t trust Loria. Loria promised that he was going to build a Team Around Big G…….and Stanton knew better.
If he continues to hit 50+ home runs, then it’s a no-brainer for him to opt out. He will easily top the $31 million AAV he is set to get from 2021-2027 if he is coming off a historic run of 4 straight seasons with 50+ HR. Only a steroid powered Sosa has had 4 straight 50 HR seasons. Bonds, McGwire, and Ruth never had more than 2 in a row. At that point, Stanton could ask for a $35+ million AAV over 7-8 seasons and get it.
There is zero chance that Stanton goes to the cards they are too damn cheap. To add insult injury if they did get him Matheny would bat him eighth so they could walk him and get the pitcher.While I am on a rant trade Carpender for a bag of balls, it does no good to get on base if you stand there like a hair clog on the bases because you can’t read the ball off the bat of the guy hitting behind you
Redsox need to replace papi ….. swihart – Bradley maybe one more
Can you list other players the Marlins won’t want?
Can you be more of a douche?
Anyone suggesting that the Marlins will take Bradley is being a douche.
The Marlins want pitchers who are cheap with a lot of club control. Bradley is an outfielder whose value drops tremendously if he has to move because of Yelich. He will make $5.9 million next year and he has only two years of club control left. The Red Sox will have to give up players the Marlins want, not players they want to trade.
Swihart has no value. The Marlins need pitching. Bradley would be a good centerpiece. Groome and one more mid-level piece like Beeks with $35-50 million going to the Red Sox if Stanton does not opt out after 2020.
From the sound of the article, Prado is available for free, basically. Take his entire contract and he’s yours.Gordon could be had for a mid-level prospect and again, assuming ALL of his contract. Stanton may cost you a couple high level prospects with long waits for free agency, but again, assume ALL his contract. For example, and not suggesting this, just an example, If the Yankees were interested it might cost Bird and any one of 3 of their top 5 propects, but the Fish may have to include Manager Don Mattingly. So few teams could take ALL of Stantons contract, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cards, Yankees, or Cubs would be likely. Remember, the biggest return the Marlins want is freeing themselves of the whole contract. Player value is out the window, if the article is factual. However, with a full no-trade Giancarlo needs to approve and one might assume he wants to go to a real contender. This is an interesting scenario and one where MLB might step in and void certain deals.
If Stanton passed through waivers unclaimed then the Marlins will have to kick in money if they want anything back at all. They would be better off just putting him on waivers again when they are able and pray somebody takes the contract. They would get zip back but would be out from under the contract.
40% of all players passed through waivers. Has zero to do with his trade value. Just because someone claimed him didn’t mean the Marlins would just take a bad trade and it doesn’t mean Stanton would say yes to the trade.
Stanton will return at least 3 good prospects and the Marlins will not have to send a penny with him prior to 2021 and even then only if he doesn’t opt out. If he has another 50 home run season or two over the next 3 it’s almost a certainty he will opt out unless he also has a couple of WS rings to go with those HRs.
Your internet name may be “out in left field”….but you are “Spot On” with most of your posts!!!!
Finally…..someone who “gets it!”
Cards aren’t going to give up Weaver or Flaghtery. I can see Piscoty, Grichick or Pham, Diaz and an A level pitching prospect
In light of the latest information, I’m starting to think that the Marlins are expecting a “lesser package” than most of us think. My thought has certainly been that it would take a package like that^^^ to get him, but I have changed my tune.
What hasn’t changed……….Is that Stanton has a Full No-Trade Clause….so it really doesn’t matter “What The Marlins Want”………….but I digress….
Marlins won’t want Piscotty and his contract. They’re “shedding payroll”.
I doubt they actually get pitching prospects as high as Flaherty (and definitely not Weaver).
The Cards probably won’t have to give up Pham either, and they shouldn’t.
The Marlins would probably take a package like Grichuk, Gomber, and Perez/Diaz in a heartbeat, if the Cards take on the entire/most of Stanton’s salary.
The contracts that the new owners inherited were well documented. That they existed in the first place is part of the reason that the previous owner wanted to unload the franchise. Instead of the other owners hovering over the Marlins like vultures to pick up the scraps from a player’s liquidation sale, why not just let the new owners choke on the dumb contracts they inherited?
straight up Ellsbury for Stanton. who hangs up first?
Marlins, in less time than it takes to move your finger.
They are shedding PAYROLL!!! They want PROSPECTS…..
Besides……Why on Earth would anyone “of sane mind & body”….Trade Stanton for a guy who is almost the same price, 6 years older, and provides 1/4 of the offensive production (at best)…????? That’s the most ridiculous trade scenario that I have seen regarding Stanton.
In addition, BOTH players have a Full No-Trade Clause……..LOL
Whatever you are smoking…..STOP. It’s clouding your thought process a LOT.
If the Cardinals’ Mozeliak had any sense, he’d work out a deal for all 3 of those players!!! He needs to put his money and actions where his mouth is. Too many years have go by that he’s promised quality trades and acquisitions. No more dumpster diving! Dee Gordon gives them the lead off hitter they need with speed. Pardon gives them that solid third baseman that can hit and field. And Stanton, well he speaks for himself!!! Great #3 or #4 hitter that they so desperately need. No matter what it takes, make it happen!!! The Marlins have the exact players the Cardinals need just sitting there on a platter, waiting for someone to jump first. Don’t poor mouth the deal Mozeliak. You’ve already said that the Cardinals have the money and the resources to obtain quality players. So put your money and trade your resources where your mouth is!
Love It!!!
1. Gordon and Stanton should hit 1-2 like they did in Miami…….
2. Marlins won’t want to take back anything but minimum payroll players, so the Cards will have to figure out what to do with Wong, Carpenter, and Piscotty. None of them are going back to Miami.
3. I prefer that Carpenter gets traded, and Piscotty goes back to 1B. If Carp plays 3B, then Gyorko has to get traded along with Wong……many options/scenarios there….lots of flexibility. Gyorko is too expensive to go to Miami also.
Considering this “news” from the Marlins, a reduced package might get these deals done. I’d say that O’Neill, Hudson, Alcantara, and Diaz could get the Stanton/Gordon deal done….maybe with a couple other low prospects.
Of course the piece that you neglected is that Stanton has a Full No-Trade Clause, and may not want to play in the Midwest. He’s in complete control here, and he’s a So Cal guy…..probably Hates Winter…..LOL
Not a typical Cards move…however with leake trade and other stuff coming off books and waino off books after this year, they could take on entire contract and not raise payroll at all. A lot of money for one guy but he’s the next franchise player they are looking for since pujols/yadi. That’s what they wanted in heyward and his contract offer was not that much less than stantons. Thank goodness he chose Cubs because no way they would be in conversation for Stanton with heyward. Cards are opposite of Cubs and typically develop pitchers and trade for position players. Besides pujols and yadi most star position players they’ve acquired through trade-Edmonds, rolen, Holliday, are some examples. So not that far fetched. I see grichuk or piscotty, Diaz and prospect such as gomber or similar with cards taking on all of his salary. Key is does he want to come here? Heard reports that he’d rather go to coast but I think Cards perpetual winning and never tanking/ selling off/ tear down might convince him otherwise
I think Piscotty is out. He is fairly cheap in ’18, but jumps to $7+ Mil after that.
O’Neill, Bader, Sierra, Alcantara are probably more likely than Piscotty (who should go back to playing 1B if they do this)
Way too much in prospects for Stanton if they want to shed all of his payroll which was stated in article
Sorry…I wasn’t very clear there….I agree that would be WAY too much
I wasn’t saying “all of them”…….just that Piscotty is NOT a candidate because of his salary coming up, and those names are “more likely to be involved” than Piscotty.
After seeing this article, I actually think (as a Marlins fan, and a Cardinals fan)……that O’Neill and Alcantara might get a deal done (if Stanton is willing to waive his no-trade clause to come to St Louis)
Throw in a couple more pitching prospects and you might have something.
Totally agree…and I don’t think this is a non cardinal move…his salary is set so they know what they are getting. Also it’s perfect because they won’t have to give up prized prospects…although I could see Hudson in a deal to lure the marlins and letting Stanton know they really want him. The more rumors i hear the stronger the case for the cardinals to go after him, and what, they give up some prospects but don’t hurt their future and if he opts out you still get three years with him.
So basically Stanton holds all the cards. He wants to go to a winner (not a rebuild) wants the west coast, and has a full no-trade clause. So let’s think. West coast teams – Oakland and Padres are out both in massive rebuilds, Giants have no farm system and unless you believe Stanton can fix what went wrong in 2017 then the Giants could be rebuilding or into a terrible expensive team. Dodgers could afford Stanton but do they really need him. Then you have Seattle who likely can’t afford to take on that contract especially since the rotation needs work.
The Marlins could have a great but immovable player due to his contract and his veto ability.
His words were actually “I prefer playing on the coast”…….(not The West Coast)
– He won’t go to the Mets after joking about “how well he hits against them”
– He won’t go to the Yankees for a bunch of reasons (mostly Luxury cap)
– He won’t go to the Giants…..they look primed for a sell-off/rebuild
– He could go to Boston, but “That Wall” could depress HR totals” (it eats line drives….even really high ones……launch angle for Stanton is often low)
– He could go to the Nationals (if they can restructure Scherzer & Strasburg contracts…….LOL…..those are insane)
– He’ll be wanted by the Phillies, but are they ready to contend???
– Orioles tapped out financially
– The Angels are always a possibility. Stanton Trout back-to-back???
– The Rockies won’t spend……..and they’re not on the coast (but the HR totals would be impressive…….LOL)
Which leaves us with one of the biggest long-shots of all….Houston Astros
Stanton would love to play with them….I’d guess
Colin Moran, Joe Musgrove, and Max Stassi for Stanton.
Houston is not on the coast. I could be wrong, but doesn’t a coast border an ocean or something like that?
Perhaps this is a good example of why it’s worth exercising caution in trying to discern meaning from these sorts of tidbits of info on player preferences. Houston is certainly on a coast!
Yeah I just looked at a map. My bad.
Last time I was in Houston it was on the coast. Did the hurricane push it inland?
I diddnt know exactly where Houston is, I just know it’s in Texas so I assumed it was on the part of Texas not on the coast.
You basically just answered why he won’t be going to a coast. He’ll have to compromise if he wants out of Miami, and he does, and they want him out, too. So he will.
I think the he wants to go to a contender thing is overblown. Any team that’s going through a rebuild isn’t going to make an offer for him. There are teams that have gone through a rebuild and might be ready to make their move. He just needs to believe that might be the case.
He doesn’t get to choose. The Marlins’ goal is to the other team to pay all of Stanton’s salary. That could exclude a team like the Yankees that doesn’t want to add that kind of payroll, but also a contender like the Twins that couldn’t fit into their budget.
If Stanton doesn’t want to go to any of the teams willing to take on his entire salary for 2018 he could decide to stay. But that seems unlikely to me. He knows they want to trade him and he doesn’t want to go through a rebuild. I’d guess that any better situation would be preferable.
When the Phillies were trying to trade Cole Hamels the team liked the Astros’ offer the most but Hamels told them he was only comfortable going to one of the 8 teams that weren’t on his no trade list.. The Phillies got what they felt was a good offer from the Rangers. Of course those 8 teams were ones the team didn’t need permission to trade him to. Stanton has to approve any team.
If there are 4 teams willing to take on enough of Stanton’s salary to satisfy Jeter will they allow him to choose the team or will the Marlins insist on the team that offers the most.