Nov. 6: The Rays will not make a qualifying offer to first baseman Logan Morrison, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Coming off a breakout 38-homer season, it certainly wouldn’t have been a total shock to see Morrison receive the offer as well, and some clubs may well have taken that risk. However, the cost-conscious Rays likely couldn’t stomach the notion of paying a combined $35MM for the pair in the unlikely event that both accepted the deal, so Morrison will enter free agency unencumbered by the burden of draft-pick compensation.
Nov. 5: In line with rumblings from earlier today, the Rays will extend a $17.4MM qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. Cobb ranks as the 11th-best free agent available on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.
As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old Cobb has only made $9MM thus far in his career, but will now receive the opportunity to nearly triple that amount if he accepts the QO. Of course, there’s certainly a higher ceiling for him on the free agent market. The MLBTR team believes he could land a 4-year, $48MM contract if he tests free agency this winter.
Tampa Bay originally selected Cobb out of Vero Beach High School in the 4th round of the 2006 draft. He made his major-league debut in 2011, and went on to pitch 520 2/3 innings for the Rays at the major league level before being placed on the DL to begin the 2015 season. What was then described as right forearm tendinitis was eventually revealed to be a partial tear of his UCL. Cobb had the Tommy John procedure in May of that season and didn’t pitch in the majors again until 2016.
In his first full season back from injury, Cobb posted solid overall numbers. He was typically good at inducing ground balls (47.8% ground ball rate) and limiting walks (2.21 BB/9), and typically lacking in the strikeout department (6.42 K/9). Ultimately, the righty posted an impressive 3.66 ERA, though his 4.24 xFIP suggests he wasn’t quite as good as those results. Still, he accumulated 2.4 fWAR and has lined himself up for a nice payday should he choose to venture into free agency.
Cobb features a sinking fastball on which he averages 92.1 MPH, which he throws about 47% of the time. That pitch has been great for him, saving an estimated 13.1 runs in 2017 by measure of Fangraphs’ Pitch Type Linear Weights. His best secondary pitch is his curveball, and he mixes in a two-seamer every now and then. His ability to induce ground balls with those pitches will certainly be in demand this winter.
Tampa must feel confident that he’ll reject the offer–and they probably should. Will be interesting to see how this effects his value.
*affects
I’d be surprised if he hasn’t rejected the offer already. He’ll get considerably more on the open market.
Yeah, he’ll get more total for sure, but he might take the offer and try to improve his stock. Taking four or 5 years now basically ensures he won’t get another long term deal. He’d be smart to take the 17mil, have another solid/injury free year and try and get a 5 or 6 year 80+ mil contract next year…
With his injury history, he would be foolish to pass at guaranteed money. He’s missed time every year of his career and just pitched his career high around 175 innings. $50 million is enough to change your life and the life of your children forever. You can’t pass that up, even if there’s a chance you could do better.
Like $17 mil isn’t enough to change your life?
I tweeted it before Heyman.
@SslaydenMLB
Well, with all due respect, it wasn’t a surprise.
I know
If Cobb accepts he’ll make up 18% of the team’s payroll, based on their current players. Cobb could get more on the open market but he isn’t getting $17.4 per year. I don’t know if a qualifying offer will discourage teams the way it did before, but if he were to take it he couldn’t get one next year.
I definitely think the argument is there. I don’t think it’s a no brainer decline for Cobb. There’s always injury risk but the MLBTR team projected him at 4/48. If that’s truly all he’s looking at, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him take it. I think he’s going to be looking at more than 48million and he’ll reject. But if the guarantee was 17.5 and I was only getting 4/48 on the open market I’d have to lean towards accepting.
17 million for one year is a good deal, especially since the QO can only happen once.
I think so. No draft pick compensation attached him to next year and he will have already banked 17.5mil. There’s always the injury argument or jeremy hellickson regression argument but I think it’s a good option.
I personally find the injury argument compelling for every pitcher, but especially one like Cobb. He’s coming off a career-high in innings pitched after missing essentially two years due to TJS and in a pretty weak SP class. I see the upside with the CBA change for guys to postpone FA by a year to hit the market without compensation attached, but I think Cobb’s provably better off rejecting and taking the $45M+ sum that should be out there this off-season
I can understand the argument for either side. Really no right or wrong answer. He’s in a good position either way. He’s clearing 17.5 million next year or he’s bringing home $48 over the next four. I think he’ll bring home more than 48million this offseason but the MLBTR guys projected him there so I used it as the baseline. We’ll get it cleared up in the next few months.
Bingo. $48 Mil is greater than $17.5 Mil. There’s no way he accepts the QO when there’s a great chance he’ll get a whole lot more guaranteed on the open market
In addition to Hellickson, Brett Anderson saw his earning power destroyed. Matt Wieters accepted and ended up with $37 million over 3 years. Would he have done better if he turned down the QO? If Cobb were to pitch 200 innings this year and have a 4 WAR season he could get a big long term deal. If he does a Brett Anderson then he should’ve turned it down.
Wieters hadn’t played a full healthy season since his injury so I think it was a no brainer there. I do think Alex Cobb has a better history than Brett Anderson though. I really don’t think Anderson would’ve gotten more than a 2 year deal with his extensive injury history. Cobb isn’t a perennial injury concern, he had TJ but lots of guys do. I think he’s going to decline and beat the MlbTr guys 4/48 prediction anyway. But in a world where he’s getting 1/17.5 or 4/48 I think it’d be hard to say no to the 17.5. I don’t think he needs a 4 WAR season to improve his earnings. Another season like this one should at least get him a 3/36-40 next year, likely more. Which would make him better off. Also don’t think Brett Anderson really had a chance if he would’ve declined that option. With draft pick comp attached and an injury history a mile long I seriously doubt he was going to get more than a 2 year deal at 10 a year or something very incentive laden.
Especially when it seems like 45 million is the floor. Im expecting more like 4/62
At 30 years old, if he takes the 4/48 its his only big contract he’ll likely ever get. But if he takes 17 now, and improves his stock, he could get 5 or 6 years next year and easily break 12 mil aav of this year’s projection. More money in the long run if he gambles on himself and it pays off. Could top 80-90 mil next year.
If he does accept the QO he will be part of a strong free agent class next year which may reduce his earnings further despite no tag on him. He may be better off playing the market this year and maybe find an opt out after 2 years instead of trying to compete in next years loaded market.
I hope he accepts to keep the Angels from signing him. They have too many injury prone starting pitchers already. Don’t need another one.
He’d have the potential to double his career earnings if he accepted the qualifying offer, not triple
Was thinking the same thing myself
He already has $9MM + $17MM would be around triple lifetime earnings than what he has now
I think that’s what Kyle intended when he wrote it but it does come out a little confusing.
This. He’s talking about his overall earnings not just this year’s salary.
Accept the offer and use 2018 to show durability and rebuild value. One good full season and the 4/48 projection looks silly — the QO already beats year 1 of that deal.
Are there any trade restrictions if Cobb accepts the QO? I don’t think so. The Rays might be better off with him accepting then trading him anyway.
Just checked, player cannot be traded until june 15 if accepted QO. He’d be available to deal well before the deadline and they’d probably be looking at a similar or better return. Not a bad option if they can stomach the salary for a 1/2 a year. Obviously it’s not up to them at this point though.
Kind of struck me odd that Tampa would offer him a QO given the danger of him accepting – that’s a large sum for a small market team. I like the idea of him accepting the QO to build up his stock. If he believes he can recapture his 2013-2014 form, then he could easily shoot for 5 years at the 6 figure range next offseason.
I believe Cobb will end up in Toronto on a three or four year deal.
His old pitching coach is in Chicago. His old manager is in Chicago. The Cubs have more money to spend and a far better chance of making a deep playoff run.
Why he would choose to go to a mediocre Blue Jays team over the cubs is beyond me.
Money
17 million isn’t a bad gamble esp after making 9 his whole career. After that you hope to be injury free and go into the open market the next year as a quality sp. I think even on a down year or not a catastrophic injury someone would still give him good money
One thing with taking the QO is that next year free agent class is stacked!! So that will also be a factor in his decision making
I️ love that everyone thinks Cobb is due $11-12million because MLB Trade Rumors says so. Now watch Cobb go get $15-18 million AAV over 4 years or so. No way this guy accepts the QO.
With a QO attached to him, he may not find that. I find it more likely that he’d accept and test the waters again if he can build a solid, healthy platform year. He could eclipse an AAV of $20 million if he goes that route.
In a market like Tampa where large contracts – even 1 year contracts – are uncommon I have to think the front office has calculated the probability of Cobb accepting a QO, and unless they’re entirely convinced he’ll reject it, I don’t think they’d put it on the table.
I bet teams just ask the player. Is that illegal? If we give you this offer, are you planning on accepting it? Of course he could lie, but then the agent burns that bridge with the front office.
With the new CBA Cobb has 10 days to gauge the interest of teams and will have a solid grasp on what kind of contract he could potentially be looking at before he has to make a decision to accept or not..
I am going to say he turns the QO down for a 5/$80 million contract with either the Cubs or Rangers (whichever gives him the 5th year). His arm only has 700 MLB innings on it, has proven capable of pitching in the very tough AL East, and has had just the one fairly common injury. To say he doesn’t land a contract similar to Mike Leake’s is selling him quite short.. Lackey was able to get $16 million AAV last year and Chen (TJS 2006) and Kazmir got $16m AAV the year before. I don’t see why Cobb’s earning capacity is compared more with McCarthy (definition of injury prone) than Lackey/Chen/Leake/Kazmir..
No pitcher has ever gotten 50M without a 200 IP season. I think 4/52 would be his ceiling
You Pulled that one right out of your.. . Wei yen Chen easily Beat 50 million and hasn’t thrown 200 innings. Anibal Sanchez too. Hell even Tanaka was 2 thirds of an inning short of 200.
Depends on the club willing to give up their draft choice for his work going forward.
The Cubs were built on draft choices, but the Rangers pretty much weren’t so I would go with the Rangers as my choice given your logic.
Should be interesting as to the logic of what clubs are willing to give up their draft choices vs clubs that view them as chips to trade.
I bet the Rangers blow their payroll on Arrieta. He’s a Texas guy and they need an ace.
Mike leake consistently throws 200+innings a year. Or at least he did when he signed on the dotted line. Length has something to do with it too. It’s one thing to get AAV and another to get that kind of money over a 5 year deal. I do think they’re selling him low though. I think he’s a lock to get over 50million but i don’t know if he’s going to get to 80. Chen’s TJ was in 06 and he signed in what 2013? I think. So it was quite a few years removed, but obviously that was a disaster. With that being said, I’d be surprised to see Cobb go for a dollar under 55mil this offseason.
I hope he declines and goes to the cubs. He has a winning chance there. The rays need to be retracted and relocated.
Wow, quite a statement from a diehard Cubs fan basking in their only title in what a hundred years!
Worry about your team…..the Rays have done pretty well in a heavily competitve division for quite some time.
And, don’t forget that your current manager got his start and his resume from that team that YOU think should be retracted and relocated.
Typical Cubs fan. We’re the greatest ever!
Cubs fans don’t realize there are other fans in baseball. They drive up to Miller Park (I live in Milwaukee) and when they see more Cubby blue than Brewer blue they think “Wow Brewer fans don’t support their team!” When actually it’s that we can’t stand the obnoxious Cub fans that habitually ruin the ballpark experience for anyone under a 0.10 BAC. I can see why they travel so well away from their historically uncomfortable seating at Wrigley. Sorry for the rant. Thanks for the revenue Cubs fans!
Yeah, that’s it… try again bud
might want to try again with your username too, bud.
Oh so you Brewer fans do not support your team. You just admitted it.
Yea what a burn by you. Thanks for the revenue huh? Yea I guess Cubs fans are fools to support their team. Did they not know the revenue goes to the Brewers …. or wait Genius … turns out the Cubs get a huge chunk of that revenue as all visiting teams do!!!
Yeah I suppose not every fan can make all 81 games like you do.
Cubs fans just make it easy to decide which ones not to attend here!
Remind me, what year was it when you guys won the world series??
No, they should be on the chopping block because their stadium is awful, no one goes to games, they can’t afford a proper payroll, and there are at least a half dozen (if not more) better cities for a team. It has nothing to do with the Cubs. Heck, even the WhiteSox can get fans to the crappy part of Chicago to watch a game. Put a team in Indianapolis, Portland, New Orleans, Vegas, Vancouver, even Montreal could probably do better…
Start selling out your stadium and actually field a team that can afford to keep it’s own players and then we’ll worry about our own team. Or, you can continue to be the farm system for the rest of the mlb and we’ll happily take your players, managers, coaches, and GMs once you can’t afford them anymore…
9m to 17.4m isn’t 3x the amount of earnings
At this point he’s made 9, after next year he would have made 26.4 total, which is (nearly) tripling his career earnings. It could have been stated more clearly though.
If I have one and I get 2, I have tripled my total. If I have 1 and I get triple the amount (3), I have quadrupled.
If he really thought 4/48 was his expected return as a FA, he should take the QO. Because even with a mediocre season, getting 3/30.5 next off-season without the draft pick baggage would seem almost a lock, unless he absolutely forgets how to pitch or has a career threatening injury.
In reality tho I feel like he can expect 4/55-60