The open market welcomed 26 additional free agents Friday when various major league teams chose not to tender contracts to certain arbitration-eligible players. While no one is going to confuse the new members of this winter’s unsigned class with any of the top free agents, there are at least a few who could boost teams’ chances in 2018 and beyond. As Tyler Flowers, Steve Cishek and Welington Castillo have shown over the past couple years, a non-tender doesn’t have to be a career death knell.
Here’s a look at the best of this year’s group:
- Hector Rondon, RP: The hard-throwing, right-handed Rondon isn’t that far removed from a two-year showing in which he was among baseball’s premier relievers. The former closer pitched to a minuscule 2.03 ERA with 8.91 K/9, 2.03 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent groundball rate across 133 1/3 innings from 2014-15, during which he combined for 59 saves on 68 attempts. However, Rondon’s effectiveness began fading during the Cubs’ World Series-winning 2016 campaign – thanks in part to an arm injury, perhaps – and he’s now fresh off a year in which he posted a 4.24 ERA. But Rondon managed at least 50 innings (57, to be exact) for the fourth straight season in 2017, when he also continued his groundballing ways (48.3 percent) and logged a career-high swinging-strike rate (11.3 percent). Further, even during his disappointing 2016-17 stretch, he saw his K/9 rise to an impressive 10.55 (against 2.33 walks per nine). While neither the Cubs nor any other team thought Rondon would be worth a projected $6.2MM in 2018, the 29-year-old still figures to intrigue a host of clubs – some of which may not be in the mood to pay high prices for established relievers this winter.
- Mike Fiers, RHP: An estimated $5.7MM for Fiers was too rich for the Astros and other teams, but it wouldn’t have been an unreasonable amount relative to what the 32-year-old has done during his career. Since debuting as a starter with the Brewers in 2012, Fiers has racked up 694 1/3 innings from the rotation and compiled a respectable 4.15 ERA, also notching 8.64 K/9 against 2.79 BB/9. Fiers was one of the few members of the World Series champion Astros who endured a miserable 2017 (5.22 ERA, 5.43 FIP in 153 1/3 frames), but if the personal-worst 19.5 percent home run-to-fly ball rate he put up more closely resembles his career mark of 13.6 going forward, he could return to being a decent innings eater.
- Matt Adams, 1B: Lefty-swinging first basemen who struggle against same-handed pitchers aren’t exactly rare, so it wasn’t that surprising when the Braves jettisoned Adams in lieu of potentially paying him around $4.6MM in 2018. That said, Adams has been quite useful versus right-handed pitchers, having slashed .286/.333/.495 against them in 1,510 plate appearances, and has typically been adept at first base (14 Defensive Runs Saved, 8.3 Ultimate Zone Rating). Those skills should make the 29-year-old Adams a worthwhile pickup for someone, though he’s a small fish in a big free agent pond that includes other proven first base types in Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso and Adam Lind.
- Jared Hughes, RP: As a groundball specialist who has generated excellent results despite a dearth of strikeouts, Hughes isn’t all that dissimilar to more hyped free agent Brandon Kintzler. But even though he has a good track record and was projected to earn a very reasonable $2.2MM in 2018, the 32-year-old Hughes is now on the unemployment line. Based on Hughes’ history, Milwaukee’s loss could be a big gain for another club. Since 2014, his first of four consecutive solid years, the ex-Pirates righty has thrown no fewer than 59 1/3 innings in any individual season and ridden a 62.1 percent grounder rate to a 2.55 ERA. Hughes ranks eighth among qualified relievers in GB rate and 18th in ERA over the past four seasons, despite having registered only 5.54 K/9 against 3.02 BB/9 during that span (notably, though, his K/9 rose to a career-high 7.24 in 2017).
- Drew Smyly, LHP: With his estimated $6.85MM salary, Smyly was a non-tender waiting to happen the moment he underwent Tommy John surgery in June, officially ending a season in which he was unable to take the mound for Seattle. The Mariners acquired Smyly 10 months ago with the hope that he’d serve as a capable mid-rotation starter – something he had been at times with the Rays from 2014-16. Smyly combined for 395 innings of 3.94 ERA ball during those seasons and recorded 8.59 K/9 against 2.53 BB/9, and offset a paltry grounder rate (34.2 percent) with a league-best infield fly mark (15.3 percent). It’s anyone’s guess whether Smyly will resemble his old form when he returns (perhaps not until 2019), but he’s still just 28 and looks worthy of taking a flyer on at an affordable cost this offseason.
I’d take the risk on Smyly. I doubt he’ll be completely removed from his former self.
Plus he’s a lefty. That always helps when you’re looking for a job.
Exactly
Might be able to be resurrected as a reliever ala Mike Minor and end up even more effective
Hughes makes every team better, bizarre move by the Brewers.
I thought that was weird too. I watched most Brewers games and figured he would for sure be back for 2018.
How do contracts work for FA like Smyly, Rosenthal, Pineda etc? Do you pay them full salary while they are on the DL? Dont teams usually have insurance to help pay salaries for injured players? Does that not apply for someone you sign with an existing injury?
Obviously a team has the resources, doctors, etc.. to help an injured player rehab. If an injured player doesnt sign while they are recovering, do they just pay the costs themselves?
Id think the teams they were signed with pays for it . Maybe work comp ins. threw the players union? Not for sure exactly !
I’d look at Nathan Eovaldi’s contract last year as general framework. He got 2 years 2mill per.. he gets paid 2 Mill rehabbing and rays get him for 2 Mill healthy
A contract like that paid off big time for the Cardinals when they signed Chris Carpenter injured in 2003.
Scott boras has a team of people that will handle the rehab until he signs
They get the contract for whatever it is agreed upon whether they are on the DL or not, although there have been clauses that negate the NEXT year’s option if the player is on the DL at year’s end and other clauses built around the DL. I’ve never seen one (or think it is allowed) to cut salary if the player is on the major league disabled list.
I’d imagine someone would probably sign Smyly to a two year contract. Most likely with a small salary the first season and heavily incentive laden on the second season. That way they can carefully monitor his progress and have very little risk.
Adams would be an interesting, lower cost DH candidate or a quality 1B pickup provided said team has a reputable right handed bat to platoon with at first!
For example Cheslor Cuthbert & the Royals…
Nothing quality about Adams & 1B
Not what the article said
I’d love to get Adams in Colorado. I wanted him badly in a potential Tulo trade several years ago. Obviously he has not lived up fully to those expectations, but I think he can be a very nice reclamation project. I have a gut feeling that if he joins the Rockies he will win a batting title.
I wish the Astros had non tendered Gattis and gone after Adams or Lind at half the price.
Gattis can serve as a backup catcher and that’s gotta be worth more trying out a player relegated to a 1B/DH role. Although his ability to frame, throw out baserunners, or call games is not top notch, it doesn’t have to be because he is a backup. Just out of curiosity, why would you prefer Adams or Lind over Gattis?
The best way to structure a Smyly deal?
1. Give him $2MM next year.
2. Club Option for $10MM the following year.
3. Vesting Option for $14MM the year after that, if he gets 30 starts.
I like Smyly and what teams have done with TJ FAs in the recent past, but 10M for a club option seems too high. Eovaldi is the closest comp I can think of and he only got guaranteed 4M over 2 years. I would take the over on Smyly however