Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2018 arbitration projections are available right here.
Manny Machado had an off year this past season. His .259 average was well below his .284 career number. Unlike many other players this past season, he did not even set his personal home run record. He only had 33, slightly less than his totals for 2015 and 2016. However, with 95 RBI and 9 SB to tack onto his totals, Machado is projected for a $5.8 million raise up to a total salary of $17.3 million.
Part of the problem with determining the accuracy of the model in Machado’s case is something that will affect a great number of cases this year—the high home run level in the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Machado as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs. My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower scoring years, and pitchers in low scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high scoring years.
For example, Chase Headley in 2013 is probably a decent comparable, even if his case is a little stale. He hit 31 HR with 115 RBI and batted .286, which bests Machado in AVG and RBI, but is similar to his HR total. With a $5.1 million raise, which would probably be somewhere between $6 and $6.5 million if we adjust for salary inflation, Headley could serve as a solid analog to Machado. However, if we think of Machado’s 33 HR as more like the equivalent of 25 HR in 2013, then Machado should clearly get less than Headley’s inflation-adjusted raise.
If we want a more recent comparable, we might want to consider Todd Frazier last year, who hit .225/40/98. With the league only experiencing a nine percent increase in HR relative to last year, Frazier might be a more legitimate comparable. He clearly had more HR, but a worse average. He only got a $3.75 million raise, which may suggest that the $5.8 million raise projected for Machado is too high.
Eric Hosmer hit .266/25/104 last year, so he could be a solid comparable as well. He received a $4 million raise, again far less than Machado’s projection. Of course, Hosmer is probably a floor with similar AVG and RBI and notably fewer HR. So maybe we want to consider Machado getting something north of $4 million.
I think it makes sense to view Hosmer’s raise as a floor on Machado, especially because of the large difference in defensive skill. While defense does not appear to make a big impact on arbitration at the model level, it obviously can in some cases. I would guess that it helps Machado move towards a raise closer to $5 million. That would still fall short of his projection, but probably puts him in striking distance of somewhere around $16-17 million.
Spoiled .. just spoiled
He will get one of the biggest contracts in mlb history next off season so this arbitration case will be moot to him
There’s no way he beats Harpers contract
He will be close. He will get 10 for 250-280 Harper 12 400
he’llget way more than that he’ll get 400 million as well
Zzzz… This post is the product of a absolutely dismal free agency. Would somebody just sign already!
Sign him? He’s still under contract with the Orioles through the 2018 season.
poster didn’t suggest Machado was a free agent.
Yes. You are correct. I misread his post as “sign him already”. My apologies to the original poster.
It looks like you pulled Hosmer’s numbers from 2016.
His numbers from last year were .318/25/94.
The error, I believe, was the year, not the stats. Small mental lapse as the year changes over. Happens.
I think the writer meant heading into his last year of arbitration last year, so you’d wanna look at his 2016 numbers for that.
Arbitration raises are based on multiple seasons, not just last year. Machado’s history, not just 2017, will contribute to him getting a $5.5-6 million raise.
I think that Schwartz is probably right that it will fall a little short of that at about $16 million. That is still good money and next offseason he is in line for one of the biggest contracts ever given out.
Thank you for the post and analysis and taking the time to explain something so little of us know much about (mlb arbitration).
We’re “tacking on” Machado’s whopping 9 stolen bases? Wowzers! Give him 100MM a year. Seriously, he hits a lot of homers by playing in a little league-sized stadium, is good for 15-20 errors a year and has a volatile temper which results in him sometimes being a dirty player. Machado is brutally overrated.
Machado has had “15-20 errors” once (in 2015) and has multiple Gold Gloves. Please check your facts before posting.
14, 13, 21,9 ,13
Do you even watch baseball?
Is Headley’s case really that “stale” as a Machado comparison?
31HR .286BA 115 RBI, and Chase got $5.1m Arb raise. (Adjusted $6-6.5m for inflation)
Headley’s career year and subsequent 2013 Arb case is the perfect comp. to Machado’s “down” 2017 and Arb case lol
Atta boy Chase!!! I knew that outlier season would be good for something.
Machado 10 yrs 250-280 million
Way too low for him.
He better be Trout good for figures over $280,000. From what I’ve read, he doesn’t have all of the Tools as Trout.
Is Machado overrated??? By following the national league, Machado wasn’t a household name until recently when his name came up as a possible trade candidate.
If and when Machado moves back to SS he will be the best SS in baseball. His contract will be a 300 million dollar deal. To comment on an earlier post Machado has not only won a gold glove he also has a platinum glove under his belt. He is definitely a house hold name, and will get paid as such.