In his column today on the molasses-slow free agent market, Bob Nightengale of USA Today drops a few nuggets of information. The Padres’ offer to free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer would promise him seven years, says Nightengale. Meanwhile, top open-market slugger J.D. Martinez is sitting on a five-year offer from the Red Sox. In other chatter, Nightengale suggests the Cubs could be willing to go as high as $110MM over four years to bring back Jake Arrieta. Of course, the teams and players just cited have likely known one another’s positions for some time now, and these stalemates have yet to be resolved. These details also fall in line with what has been reported previously about the respective situations, though they are surely interesting data points as we seek to divine when and how the free agent dam will finally break.
More on the open market:
- The Cardinals still seemingly have a wide array of potential targets as they aim to continue adding bats to their lineup (among other possibilities for improvement). Per Jon Morosi of MLB.com, via Twitter, the Cards shouldn’t be counted out on Hosmer. According to the report, St. Louis “remain[s] involved” on the first bagger, with Morosi noting the club could conceivably then bump Matt Carpenter to third base. From an outside perspective, that still seems like a hefty investment for the potential reward, particularly since the organization decided just last year to shift Carpenter across the diamond — in part, at least, to improve the defensive situation at third. With Jedd Gyorko coming off of a strong two-way campaign at the hot corner, Kolten Wong still occupying second, and a pair of young options on hand at first (Jose Martinez and Luke Voit), there are some other components at play here for the Cards. Presumably, the addition of Hosmer would mean a trade involving one or more of those existing players.
- Some down-market free agent starters may still be waiting to see what happens up top. Per Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN, via Twitter, the Twins are giving the “sense” to the reps of some hurlers that they want to see what happens with Yu Darvish before pursuing next-tier hurlers such as Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. That said, as Nightengale also notes, Darvish (like Arrieta) is still waiting to see if he can secure a sixth or even seventh guaranteed season. No doubt some possible trade situations are also contributing to the stasis; as ever, some player or some team may need to blink before things get flowing.
- Lefty reliever Fernando Abad has drawn some interest from multiple organizations, per Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). Mish lists a few plausible fits, in his view, though it’s not clear which particular teams have actually reached out. Abad was among the hurlers who we cited yesterday as a reliever of note on a market that has already lost many of its biggest names. He was fairly effective last year, though most of his work came in low-leverage spots. It’s possible to imagine Abad lining up with quite a few organizations, though some will undoubtedly be interested primarily in a non-roster deal.
Hosmer isn’t an upgrade over Gyroko/Carpenter/Martinez. He is a ground ball hitter. I don’t see the fit.
If you don’t think Hosmer is an upgrade over any of those 3 you need a new prescription for your glasses
If he is an upgrade, it’s not that big of one
oh it’s a pretty big one
Care to explain how?
I’ve watched a lot of Cardinals and Royals games, They are all streaky hitters, I’d trade Hoz for Carp straight up strictly on base running abilities. and here come the Carpenter honks that freak on his on base” perception “I put it that way because it doesn’t do any good to lead off and stand at first because you won’t take an extra base.Keep them all but trade Wong , stay away from Hozmers contract
Be a fool to trade Wong
I agree. Trade Wong. Carpenter has been an All-Star second baseman. Wong has too much of the me attitude to be a total team player.
Wong is a better ballplayer than Carpenter. You have no clue about Wong’s attitude. Wong transformed his batting approach last season and performed like a leadoff hitter. Carpenter, on the other hand, is a slow dead pull hitter and bad baserunner who can only perform in the leadoff spot. The Cardinals needed Carpenter to perform in the three hole like he had as the leadoff hitter and he failed. Carpenter is the most overrated player on the team and holds more value in a trade than in the lineup.
Carpenter is a better base runner than Hosmer according to fangraphs.
It’s foolish to compare the baserunning of Carpenter and Hosmer. Hosmer can perform in a position in the order more advantageous to the team while Carpenter is a slow dead pull hitter and bad baserunner who can only bat leadoff. Hosmer is an upgrade for the lineup and defense.
Over the last three years, they have been very similar. Each has had a down year in some cats,for a year.
Over the last 3 years:
Carpenter: 10.2 WAR, .864 OPS, 130 OPS+
Hosmer: 8.7 WAR, 822 OPS, 119 OPS+
But is he enough of an upgrade to be worth the $$ and years of commitment that will be required to get him?
Hosmer is the most overrated defensive player, he had a -2 defensive WAR last year.
Hosmer/Ozuna would be an effective 3/4 combination and Hosmer would be a defensive upgrade. Carpenter and J Martinez could be moved for pitching.
Hosmer’s defense is actually pretty horrible if you get into metrics. His bat, coming off a career year, compared to a down year by carp, was only slightly better, with carp averaging much higher #s in almost every counting stat.
Don’t rely on defensive metrics for a first baseman. They are the toughest to grade defensively.
Exactly, you can throw out a lot of metrics for first base because a lot of their defensive value is based on how they handles throws and how well they react to different situations (like whether to try and turn two or just take the out at first) Hosmer has been pretty good defensively for most of his career.
Like scoops, not UZR nor any of the other metrics have have use scoops in their evalation of first basemen. That’s a HUGE part of first base and one that Hosmer excels in, yet he’s seen as a bad fielder to the ill-informed
Ok, if that’s the case, he shouldn’t have won 4 gold gloves. Gtfoh smh
He has limited range which Ned Yost even spoke about…but he picks. That’s not metrics..that’s baseball savvy. We label great defensive player as great all around….which Hosmer isn’t….but he can pick.
I’m not a Hosmer fan…large crowd actually. He has to be the right price for me.
I don’t think they should sign Hosmer or Moustakas, but if they still want to add an infield bat I don’t know where it’s coming from. Seems like neither Abreu or Donaldson are going to be moved this winter. Rather they stand pat than sign someone just to sign them.
They should’ve signed Cozart to play short and moved DeJong to third. Rotate Gyrko at second (against lefties), third and short and use J-Mart as a 4th outfielder and backup 1B. No other bats on the FA market make/made sense for them.
Please Cardinals don’t sign Hosmer! That would be a terrible idea! Make another trade with Miami for Bour or White Sox for Abreu . Maybe even Maryinez if he could play 1B!
Martinez! LoL! This phone is driving me crazy!
Please show me where it says cards and hosmer
It says padres and hosmer
Paragraph are different topics
Every single one of you need to read this again
Maybe you should read the first bullet point in the article…
Maybe you should read the article again!
Per Jon Morosi of MLB.com, via Twitter, the Cards shouldn’t be counted out on Hosmer. According to the report, St. Louis “remain[s] involved”
Pretty sure that says Cardinals and Hosmer!!!
Hosmer = No Bueno, for Cards.
“Per Jon Morosi of MLB.com, via Twitter, the Cards shouldn’t be counted out on Hosmer. According to the report, St. Louis “remain[s] involved” on the first bagger, with Morosi noting the club could conceivably then bump Matt Carpenter to third base.”
Are you out of your mind? Have you looked at the numbers ?
This is hardly an upgrade. And one that would require so much money and the loss of a draft pick. If the Padres are willing to go 7, that’s an easy call to avoid.
just sign him, he’d look good in red
Jesus 7 years for Hosmer ? Why ??? They are literally the only team making him an offer right now lol
Because San Diego is a horribly ran organization!
Looking forward to seeing a future article about Hosmer being used in a salary dump after so many years.
No they just have to overpay for players to show they are committed.
Just like the Nationals had to do for Werth. The initial contract immediately after a rebuild usually hurts the worst financially for the team. You have to prove to the league that you are ready to compete so Hosmer will cost them if they truly want him.
It has nothing to do with them being ran poorly. They have one of the best farm systems in the game that was build just a shade above 2 years ago.
So what has been San Diegos excuse for the last 25 years ? Seems like they have been in a perpetual rebuild.
That’s not true. They were actually decent not too long ago. Then Preller took over. And now you have his excuse of a team.
they haven’t made the playoffs in a decade
They didn’t magically become bad right when Preller got hired. They were bad for years before
20 seasons ago they were in the World Series
11/12 seasons ago they won the nl west
10 years ago in 07; Matt holidays still hasn’t touched home
7 seasons ago they had one of the biggest collapse at lost on the last day of the year to the Future 2010 champs
I was at that game. When Jonathan Sanchez hit that double I almost lost it.
They seem to have one or two great years for every seven or eight. They try but they can’t seem to keep their players, which is crazy considering San Diego is such an amazing city with year-round fantastic weather and a relaxed vibe.
It will change soon now that The Chargers are gone. But half our city, if not more are transplants and Military
Bleacherbum that is one of the most ridiculous narratives I’ve ever heard and I’m quite certain Scott Boras had to have coin it.
I’ve got news for anyone who subscribes to such nonsense, if the Padres offer a Hosmer a 5 year deal and nobody else is offering a 5 year deal he will sign there even if it’s just market value or below and it won’t have anything to do with the padres proving they’re ready to win which doesn’t make any sense or anything else other than $$$.
You have to understand the Padres have had multiple different owners in a small amount of time. They never got the chance really to test out a full 3-5 plan under the same regime.
It was hardly the “biggest collapse”. It wasn’t like they were in 1st and got swept in the last series. It only seems bigger because they played their worst ball towards the end on the season. They were 31 games over .500 April through August. In Sept/Oct, they were 3 games under, hardly that terrible, but that’s how they fell out of 1st. They went to SF in 2nd place needing to sweep the Giants. They only took 2 out of 3. That’s hardly an epic collapse.
From April 20th until September 15th they only spent 4 days out of first place, and they had the opportunity at the end to beat the very team that was ahead of them, and failed. It was a pretty terrible collapse.
“run poorly”, not “ran poorly” Geesh!
Mook. There have been 3 owners over the last 10 years
Let’s see January 2nd, Hosmer still unsigned. Morosi claims sources say Cardinals and Blue Jays could be interested. Nightengale says Padres are willing to go 7 years. Only person benefiting from these rumors is Boras. I guessing no substantive new developments, Boras just trying establish competitive market.
I mean, maybe it’s 7/115m or something like that. That would be fine, I think. Get him through his age 35 season at $16m/year.
Hosmer certainly isn’t the star that Boras is marketing him as (and obviously everybody knows it) but he is a good player who many think still has upside at the plate.
On MLB Network radio they were saying that what Nightengale was calling a 7 year offer was the same 6/120 with an option for a 7th year that we heard about before Christmas.
Hmm. I wouldn’t be super excited about giving him that, but I don’t think it’s too horrible. Probably about where he’ll end up.
Doubt it. I bet KC has that on the table potentially…but not at the money. Seeing a 7 year deal on the table indicates to me that’s what Boras is saying would get him to leave. Kind of ridiculous…he’s a legend in KC…just go back there and be franchise and regional icon. Money isn’t pouring in…and he’s just a decent player anywhere else.
Man, Arrieta for $27mil plus for 4 years still seems too steep
Pretty in line for what he should get.
I disagree, I wouldn’t give him more than $20mil annually unless it’s for 1 year
i mean, no one wants to give any FA what they should get based on the market. Wouldn’t shock me to see him get 4/120 or something
okay and you won’t even come in close to sign again I’m going rate for top of the rotation pitching is 25 to 30 million a year
okay and you won’t even come in close to signing him the going rate for top of the rotation pitching is 25 to 30 million a year
You don’t even have $20 MM…or a baseball team, so what you’d do is irrelevant.
Should or will? Lot of red flags for that kind of money.
Are you kidding me? I’ll take a 4 year 110M for to bring Jake back all day.
It is, Jake probably has 2 good years left in him if he’s lucky. The 3rd year wouldn’t be pretty & the 4th year he’s a borderline 5th starter.
How about some lotto numbers genius? Krieky the crap some people imagine and the believe and then post.
I’m guessing you just look at overall number on Google to see how “good/bad” a player is instead of actually watching them play and looking at the metrics?
I hope you realize that “metrics” are what people look up on Google to make these judgements.
If you figure Arrieta can be worth 4 wins in 2018 and 2019, 3.5 in 2020, and 3 in 2021, that offer is about market value.
He was worth about 4 in 2016 and about 3 last year per Fangraphs. I agree that it’s pretty steep still. If that’s really on the table, it’s probably the best offer he’s going to get.
I think 3/80 is about right
Please red Sox NO JD.. NO NO NO!!
Why wouldn’t you want one of the Top 5 best hitters in baseball over the past 4 years? You really want Hanley Ramirez to be your full time DH? Don’t give me the wait till next year and sign Machado or Harper crap either! Both of them are going to get 400+ million. Getting JD Martinez on a 5/135 million deal is a steal compared to what a power bat is going to cost next year.
I’m pretty sure he’s not a Red Sox fan so that’s why he doesn’t want the Red Sox to get him
I think a 5 year deal with a player or club option for around 100-120 mil sounds decent.
Please no to hosmer unless a multiplayer trade involving cards giving up two or more of gyorko, Martinez, Dejong, carp, Wong for an upgrade somewhere leaves a hole at first base. Hosmer is not horrible, but not an upgrade over Cards current options
Hosmer to the cards makes no sense. Moustakas would make more sense and even that is questionable to me. I’d look elsewhere.
The only clutch games remember Abad being in last year was extra inning games when BP was used up and it was down to him pretty much or rookies ben Taylor/Austin maddox.. Abad put up those numbers in blowouts and need to be taken with a grain of salt. IMO 36YO RH reliever Blaine Boyer boston had last year would be a better pickup than lefty Abad. he was used in some tough situations occasionally and other than a few rough outings, did a fine job.
dynamite drop in monty
I hope my team signs good players for little money!
My thoughts exactly after reading this nonsense.
I think the market will largely remain gridlocked for another month. It doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of willingness to compromise on either side right now, and that applies to free agents and teams’ asking prices in proposed trades. MLBTR writers face another month to stretch their limits of creativity to fill in the large canyons between actual trades and signings.
Hosmer shouldn’t get 7 years anywhere. He’s just flat not good enough.
You’re doing this wrong. Years on a contract are mostly a function of age (and Hosmer’s only 28). Annual salary is the better read on how good a free agent is.
JD isn’t signing a 5 year deal unless it’s close to 30 mill a year. There’s no way he agrees to be a a DH for such a short amount of time
I don’t understand why the Cardinals would want Hosmer. they’re offense wasn’t actually terrible last year it just wasn’t great, they lacked the 1-2 legit thumpers in the middle of the lineup. Ozuna could fit one of those slots but to me Hosmer is more of the same albeit an expensive long term commitment. You actually get worse defensively by moving Carpenter and Hosmer is overratee on defense. if you can’t get Donaldson or Machado, then I would stand pat right now and focus on pitching your way to wins. I.E. finding a closer and hopefully looking at some of the SPs still available.
They need to throw whatever money is necessary to get Addison Reed and trade for Colome and try to pry Archer away too. If they still have enough in the farm they can go after Donaldson in July when Toronto is out of it (officially).
They don’t have enough in their system to trade for Archer by himself!
Eh I’m sure they could get Archer, but it would cost a lot and probably out of their comfort zone.
Not even close to true. They have plenty to get Archer.
Not true most likely. Most of the Cards best prospects are either pitchers or near-major league outfielders, and the Rays don’t really want either of those. They’re after infielders, catchers and the like. Carson Kelly is about all they have to offer.
There is no team in baseball that doesn’t want young pitching.
no one doesn’t want young pitching so something built around we Weaver flattery and Kelly could probably get the job done
Seamaholic when you’re rebuilding you go after the best possible talent, regardless of position. It’s better to have too much of a something rather than none of it at all
the only place carpenter needs to move is to another team. putting him at third, in place of jedd would be terrible. why is ozuna going to bat cleanup? pujols almost always batted third, so he would get more at bats.
The 4 hitter should be your best hitter. They come to the plate the most with men on base. 3 hitter comes up the most with two outs and nobody on.
If Carpenter is a 3B, he is one of the better ones in the game
The 1990’s called and wants its cutting-edge strategy back.
(Studies have long since determined that you want your best hitter either 2nd or 3rd, definitely not 4th).
power hitters usually lead off now
why did pujols bat third? he was cardinals best hitter. batting third gets you more at bats. how many games end with the cleanup hitter waiting on deck. i would bat ozuna third. carpenter sux everywhere
It’s about 18 less PA as you move down the order over the year.
It’s the situation.
You want your best hitter hitting 4th. If anyone gets on in the first, then he has a valuable PA. If the 1-3 hitters go 1-2-3 in the first, then you have a great hitter leading off the second.
The 3 hitter has the most PA on the season with two outs and nobody on. As an opposing team, that’s the situation you want the other teams best hitter in. Votto up with two outs and nobody on, even if he gets on it likely won’t matter.
Order of importance
4, 1, 2, 5, 3, 6, 7, 9, 8
Good contact hitters 3 and 5, high obp guys 1 and 2, overall obp and slugging in the 4. 8 and 9 hitters being inverse is worth very little, but it’s something small to get the 1 and 2 hitters potentially up with someone on.
Appealing to authority to say “well Pujols hit 3rd” as though TLR is the all knowing baseball mind is dumb. Look at the types of situations each hitter in your lineup is getting
The studies show that you want your best hitter to hit leadoff, followed by cleanup, second, fifth, and third. Adjust a bit to favor OBP first. The studies also show that it makes very little difference as long as your best hitters are in the lineup somewhere towards the top.
That article is 9 years old. It was proven wrong in several subsequent articles including one on that blog.
The position that comes up with the most men on base was and is 4th in the batting order. That is the position you want the batter with the best slg % to bat in. You want the guy with the best chance to knock in a guy regardless of the base they are on.
Best hitter is subjective. You want the guy with the highest BA and OBP in the #3 slot in the batting order.
Go to Fangraphs and do your leader searches by place in the batting order and you will find that is how it is done by most teams. The ones that don’t are the teams that don’t have enough quality players to do what succeeds the best.
Eh. To me, what all the research really demonstrates is that you can just order your lineup by OBP and be fine. The gains related to optimizing beyond that are trivial.
tell that to tony larussa. it worked with pujols batting third for years. after the first inning, a lineup is luck of the draw anyway.
the article also referenced your best hitter bats third. ozuna fits
Outinleftfield Unless you have a moron for a manager.
Carp ain’t going anywhere, but 1B for Cards. Dig a little further into stats. OPS for example..
I’d actually be a fan of the cards trading for a bounce back candidate. Would the Indians entertain a Wong for Kipnis trade? Maybe Grichuk for some other change of scenery candidate would be nice also? Yandy?
7 years for Hosmer better come with an AAV below expectations.
The Padres dont have a ton in future commitments but they could probably get Lomo for 3/$36m or something and save the draft pick.
They only want Hosmer if they’re moving Myers to OF
Hosmer is solid but I’d rather just sign Frazier or Moustakas and switch them to 1B if needed
I went for Zach Cozart. He’s been a solid professional for years and he seems to just keep getting better. Actually, I like all of the upgrades the Angels have made. If they get a break out performance from a pitcher or two, they just might end up near the top.
I want Preller to either get Hosmer signed within 24 hours or shut up about it forever.
Grandpa Ryan, you were doing so well there for a moment!
I feel the same Ryan, they need to pull the deal off the table at some point if Hosmer doesn’t bite in the next few days. Can’t dangle that kind of money out there forever, got other areas that need to be addressed and I think Hosmer is delaying Preller from really getting going.
7-year contract for Hosmer???!!!
After seeing so many multi-year contracts have become just a burden to too many clubs, I am just flabbergasted that teams are still offering more than 5-yr contracts for players, especially for players like Hosmer. No disrespect to Hosmer but his production numbers and position are not much of a rare commodity. I can understand longer contracts for franchise players, but geez, what is the Padres thinking?
He’s only 28. That’s why the long contract. In fact, if you like the player, given his age a long contract lower AAV is probably the smart play. Something like 7/119.
Maybe w all the power at every position nowadays, a first baseman who can hit .300, and play solid D, is becoming much more important than the clog that can bash 40-50 bombs…
Yes the Red Sox are signing JD to a 5 year 120 mil contract. Then trading JBJ and Xander for Machado and signing him to a $400 mil extension even though he hates Boston. Then they are trading Hanley and Chavis for Joey Votto and signing Moose for 3b. I also have a Unicorn for sale if anyone wants to purchase it.
Not in the market for unicorns. Got a yeti?
Arrieta was worth 4/110 after his cy-young year. It’s hard for me to believe a team would give him that after his recent decline. In a free agent market where there is a dearth of quality starting pitchers, maybe he’s still worth 25-28. It makes me wonder how much Kershaw might net if he opts out next year.
If a declining Arrieta is worth 25-28, Kershaw must be worth 35-40?
I’m guessing Kershaw won’t opt out (I know you aren’t saying he will), with all the guys on the market next year teams can only spend so much so it might hurt him a little nad he’s already due 32.5 mil/yr so while 35 is an extra 2.5 I’m not sure he would risk it unless he thought he had a good shot at 40.
Clayton will opt out 100%. He is only guaranteed about $70 after next season. He will easily land a much more lucrative contract than that if healthy and only 30 y/o regardless of ‘all the guys on the market’. He will be ‘the guy’ when it comes to pitchers.
Well he’s certainly not opting into the remaining money on his contract. Although it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Dodgers pay him whatever he wants to waive the opt out.
I don’t know , arrieta has 2 road World Series wins and a ring. What value is that opposed to kershaw? Regular season for flash ,postseason for cash. Regular season for show ,postseason for dough. Arrieta moves Chatwood to #5. If cubs don’t sign arrieta , Cobb , darvish or Lynn, then Chatwood is #4 and Montgomery #5. Yikes.
Arrieta. $27M a year for what will amount to a 4 ERA.
18th in ERA, 20th in whip and 12th In baa In all of baseball last year. 0.84 era in postseason. Not to shabby. 4 years you are paying for 1 year of trash. If he wants 6 years no way.
I like Hosmer’s attitude. He’s a hard nosed player and a Gold Glove. Love Carp but maybe a fresh start would be good for both Carp and Hosmer.
Here’s a theory… maybe this is why the Donaldson trade is held up. If the Cards get Hosmer, then Carpenter goes to Toronto with Grichuk for Donaldson
4/110 for Arrieta?!
Hosmer is young, might just be peaking, a 3-4 war player, great defender, baserunner, a leader, bilingual, new face of the franchise, and has a thin build to wear he probably continue to be durable, and a clutch player from what I’ve heard. SET UP guys are getting 3 year contract at 9 mil per year! $20 mil per year for 7 years where he’ll only be 35, is a solid deal, and be may take even less. We strengthen 2 positions w him. Plus we don’t have a real 1B in the minors. Naylor is young and a slight disappointment so far and is probably a DH. I do worry about Wil Myers checking out chicks bored AF out in the OF tho
Hosmer may end up taking that offer for 7 years. How much money though? As much as I would like him back, I rather the Royals have an extra pick
What’s interesting to me is that Todd Frazier has more homers and about the same RBI as Martinez over the last 4 years. He also beats him in WAR. Hosmer is not close to either player. So my question is what are we looking at in a player.
Frazier has 3 more home runs than Martinez in the last four years and he’s had over 300 more at bat’s than Martinez has had over that time frame. Martinez has a much higher career average by almost 60 points and he’s almost two years younger than Frazier.
Seems to me that Hosmer is the most talked about on this thread. He isn’t worth a lick of anything he gets this off season. He’s a slightly above average player who will benefit from either Boras or the market itself.
Slightly above average? He drives in 90-100 runs a year and he’s still in his prime. I’d say he’s worth something.
7 years is just too much for a few good seasons.
The more important factor is the amount of money being offered, which we don’t know. I’m assuming it’s not an extraordinary number, since Hosmer hasn’t exactly jumped on it.
For the right price, Hosmer would be a fine addition to many lineups. People need to stop acting like players turn into pumpkins after turning 30.
Someone will sign Hosmer..just hope it’s not the Cards or the Royals. San Diego wants him for 7. Let him sign. They never seem to learn.
Hosmer is a strange case. Advanced metrics don’t like him, but he produces. If I were signing him, I’d go four years $80 million at most. If San Diego gives him 7 years I’m going to laugh and laugh.
And I will laugh and laugh along with you
Reports here on local news source are that the Royals have a 147M offer out to Hosmer. USA Today has reported it. That’s crazy! But he does have more value to them than other teams in marketing.
Personally I’d like the Cardinals to think cheaper and short term like Todd Frazier. Sure his average is low but the OBP is decent as is his fielding and his power is better than Hosmer and he’ll come for less years and a whole lot less money.
Another thing is why think about Arrieta when Lynn would be less expensive and possibly come at a discount to stay in STL and has a proven track record
Reports are here in KS that the Royals have a 147M offer out to Hosmer. Per usatoday