The White Sox avoided arbitration with slugging first baseman Jose Abreu today, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $13MM (as first tweeted by FanRag’s Robert Murray). Obviously, Abreu’s contract lands well shy of the hefty $17.9MM projection generated by the arbitration projection model of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, as well as the $17MM figure that Swartz referenced in a more in-depth breakdown of Abreu’s arbitration case.
Abreu has been a thorn in the side of MLBTR’s projection model for two years now, as the unique nature of his contract does not appear to be properly contextualized by the algorithm driving our model. Abreu originally agreed to a six-year, $68MM contract with the White Sox four years ago, but that deal allowed him the right to opt into arbitration once he was eligible. Abreu exercised that right last offseason, and we explored some of the intricacies of that decision at the time. Notably, the CBA offered little clarity in terms of how Abreu’s annualized signing bonus should be treated within the confines of the arbitration system.
Speculatively speaking, that could once again be the case in 2018, as it’s surprising that Abreu would receive a raise just north of $2MM after a season in which he posted a terrific .304/.354/.552 batting line, 33 homers and 102 RBIs over the life of 675 plate appearances. It should be noted that even with a relatively modest raise, Abreu is coming out ahead of the figures he’d have earned had remained on his guaranteed salaries rather than opting for arbitration. Abreu would’ve earned $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018 and $12MM in 2019, so he clearly made the proper decision when opting into arbitration, even if the system treats him as an atypical case.
Whatever the reason, the $13MM salary represents one of the more substantial misses our projection model has ever forecast. As for the Sox, they’ll once again enjoy the presence of one of the American League’s top hitters in the middle of their order as well as a respected and highly valued presence in their clubhouse. Abreu’s name has been oft-mentioned in trade rumors, though the ChiSox are reportedly loath to move him. He’s controlled for another two seasons.
Trade value just went up
Wow……that low price tag even more enticing for a club inclined to offer Hahn prospects (Cards/Rockies).
Trade him now. Donaldson got23 mill abreu got 13. Trade him to the
cards.
Those are two completely different players.
Those are players that have been linked to the cardinals if the jays decide to sell and abreu is traded.
Seeing that donaldson got 23 mill kind of eliminates that idea financially for the cards.
Thus abreu makes more sense given the low price tag. Would cost more for his services but better investment.
And next year abreu will get max 7 mill raise putting him at 20 mill, still less than donaldson.
Amen!!! Trade him to the Cardinals. 2 strong MLB ready pitchers, Catcher Carson Kelly
Like your idea, but that may be a touch too steep and unwise for St.Louis even as a WS fan. Carson Kelly you mention would be the perfect defensive C Hahn would want (with no problem being patient with his bat) and a strong P prospect not named Reyes/Flaherty. A 3rd longer shot prospect WSox scouts like more than most such as a lefty pitcher would be the filler. It’ll take an overpay for sure, but Hahn is a shrewd businessman who is publicly overselling the Cuban babysitter thing.
More than I’d expect the Cardinals to give up, but if they wanted to send Kelly plus 2 of Hicks/Hudson/Helsley/Gomber, I’d be on board. Or one of those guys plus one of Garcia/Bader would work for me since the Cards have the OF depth. Again, I don’t think they’d be offering up that much, but if they’re dealing from positions of strength/depth, then I guess it’s a possibility (slim one at that).
Different service classes
If he messes up your model, why don’t you just manually assess his projection? It’s only one player.
Good question, and I’m happy to give a fairly lengthy answer.
We manually assessed him last year and were off by about $1.2MM (We had him around $12MM). Matt’s Arbitration Breakdown piece was in many ways a manual assessment of him this year, and while he believed that his model was high, he also still felt that based on historical comparisons, Abreu had a viable case for a raise worth upwards of $6MM.
The bottom line with Abreu here has to be that the arbitration process doesn’t view last year’s $10.825MM base salary as his “technical” base salary. Perhaps his annualized signing bonus ($1.66MM) needs to be subtracted from the deal, but even doing so wouldn’t fully explain the nature of his raise.
Historically speaking, the arbitration system heavily rewards playing time (plate appearances), home runs, batting average and RBIs. Abreu shined in all of those facets. Looking at the raises for players who did so similarly — Anthony Rendon is in the same service class and just received a $6.5MM raise — it’s not fully clear why Abreu’s raise was only roughly one third of that size. Even if we subtract the pro-rated bonus, he received a raise worth about $3.8MM, which is markedly less than his peers.
We’ve spoken to agencies and team executives about this very subject matter in the past, and we’ll certainly do so again next week in an effort to understand unique contracts of this nature (Raisel Iglesias will be in a similar spot next winter) and to improve our projection model.
Depending on the results of those topics, we may write a separate piece expounding on the nature of Abreu’s case. It’d admittedly only be of interest to a fairly limited audience, but I find it to be a worthwhile endeavor all the same.
Wtf shut up
But this was an agreement between the player and team. Isn’t it possible he would have gotten much closer to projection by an arb panel? Maybe Abreu (his agent) just undersold himself?
By $5 million? That seems doubtful
Jose Abreu time and again has stated his desire to remain with the White Sox in spite of their rebuild and his limited salary control before his eligibility for free agency following the 2019 season. Perhaps all this is a part of a goodwill gesture toward the organization that will eventually materialize into a contract extension.
The White Sox have a historical relationship with Cuban players dating back to Minnie Minoso who was a mentor to Abreu before his passing. Abreu himself is continuing that trait with players like Yoan Moncada just as Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo did with him after he signed his original international free agent contract in October of 2013.
Unlike some other countries including this one, Cuban players have a tremendous appreciation for baseball and the players who have made it to the big leagues before them. I continue to believe that Abreu will become an important part of the future core with the White Sox that will also include fellow countryman Moncada and Luis Robert.
“Anthony Rendon is in the same service class and just received a $6.5MM raise — it’s not fully clear why Abreu’s raise was only roughly one third of that size. Even if we subtract the pro-rated bonus, he received a raise worth about $3.8MM, which is markedly less than his peers”
Maybe because Abreu plays the least valuable position in MLB (excl DH) and Rendon plays third (elite 3B defense)
Even if position value is ignored and Arb panel focus on defensive marks — the gap is too huge to ignore— Rendon’s light years ahead of Jose Abreu, defensively. Take a look at #’s yourself, tell me Rendon didn’t deserve a bigger raise…
2017 Defense (compared)
Anthony Rendon: +13.6 UZR
Anthony Rendon: +15.8 Def
Anthony Rendon: +7 DRS.
Jose Abreu: +0.5 UZR
Jose Abreu: -11.7 Def
Jose Abreu: 0 DRS
2016 Defense: (compared)
Anthony Rendon: +10.6 UZR
Anthony Rendon: +12.9 Def
Anthony Rendon: +8 DRS
Jose Abreu: -5.0 UZR
Jose Abreu: -17.3 Def
Jose Abreu: -5 DRS
Even WAR agrees which player’s performance was more valuable (War counts both Def+Off )
WAR last 2 years: Rendon had +6.9 and +4.1 whereas Abreu had +4.1 and +1.8.
If you ever get a chance for me ask agents if the reason for their discrepancy was defensive competency. And if it isn’t… it should When the player used for comp is vastly superior —contributing on Defense. You guys are the experts, I enjoy your work!
All data used in this analysis provided via fangraphs.
link to fangraphs.com
(Anthony Rendon)
link to fangraphs.com
(Jose Abreu)
You’re not going to get your algorithm to a calculate an organization’s higher operational standards.
If you watched Abreu you’d know his kids were brought over to see him play, his father was called upon multiple times. His father is old school Cuban, not leaving the country. This is cultural cooperation going here and could be part of the reason the White Sox are so respected internationally.
Hahn’s phone is blowing up right about now!
biggest issue with him as a trade chip was his price he is definitely more valuable now but I still think he’s most valuable to the chi Sox so I doubt he’ll be traded
Extend him now. With the first two arb years now a bargain, A four to five year contract would be manageable for the Sox and provide an annual average salary improvement for Abreu. Say 4-5 years $80M to $100M?
reinsdorph has always been a cheap owner.
Ringleader of the 80s collusion and the architect behind capping international free agency and the draft. A true cancer,
Great deal. Great player. Even if his price tag came in at $17mm+, he’s still worth every penny. Expect a contract extension this season if Hahn isn’t blown away with a trade proposal
Is it possible that Abreu traded some finances in exchange for no trade protection? Not sure no trade protection is even allowed during arb contracts.
I was thinking the same thing.
If he did that it’d be a handshake deal. Highly doubt it.
Since they didn’t go to a hearing, then this seems like Abreu basically offered up a hometown discount to the Sox when payroll wasn’t an issue whatsoever.
So sorry all you’re jerking around with Abreu”s arbitration projection model went haywire-but who cares? I do care that the Sox will try to keep this excellent 1st sacker, power hitter, and mentor to the young players we have acquired the last 2 years.
Doesn’t mean anything of the kind. In fact, getting a low-ish number makes a trade MORE likely.
I can see the point you are making about the “lowish” 13MM salary figure for Abreu leading to a trade. I also hope you can comprehend the fact that he would prefer to remain with the Sox and become a part of the rebuild. I think Jose will stay and continue to contribute on the field and in the clubhouse. If he does get traded, the question will become “who’s on first”?
Guess he has more “excess value” than some people thought.
Ha, yes! Posters clinging too literally to excess value of prospects as gospel throughout this WS rebuild have to realize that it is all about supply vs demand (and timing) in the end. Q wasn’t going anywhere unless someone like Eloy/Tucker/Meadows was the headliner as an example with quality P being so expensive. Abreu only major bat now outside paying for JDM. It’s going to hurt the suitor a bit.