Jan. 23: The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes that there’s “a sense” that Darvish’s talks with interested parties have gained momentum recently. Moreover, Mooney writes that Darvish’s options are “not limited to the teams identified publicly” — meaning the Cubs, Twins, Rangers, Brewers, Dodgers and Yankees. Darvish remains a focus for the Cubs, according to Mooney, who adds that a reunion with Arrieta “appears to be a long shot.”
Meanwhile, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that a rival exec who has recently been in contact with the Twins expressed some doubt about Minnesota’s willingness to sign Darvish if it means pushing into the $150MM territory.
Jan. 22, 10:45pm: The Cubs are “having active talks” with Darvish, according to a report from the Associated Press. That said, it’s also clear from the report that there is no agreement in place.
Speculation surrounding the connection between Darvish and the Cubs already increased earlier tonight, as it emerged that the club has a deal in place with catcher Chris Gimenez — who once forged a strong bond with Darvish when the two played with the Rangers.
2:01pm: Free agent righty Yu Darvish has received “at least” one five-year offer, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Crasnick does not specify if the five-year offer is the one which he’s reportedly received from the Brewers, though Milwaukee is indeed one of the teams in the mix for Darvish, per the report. The Twins, Rangers, Cubs and Dodgers are also in play at the moment, he adds.
Earlier this month, Darvish was reportedly choosing among six teams — the Twins, Rangers, Cubs, Yankees and Astros, with one mystery team added to the bunch by Darvish himself (on Twitter). The Dodgers were later reported to remain in the mix for Darvish, and it now appears that the Brewers have joined the pursuit while the Astros are out of the picture after their acquisition of Gerrit Cole.
There’s no mention of the dollars in Crasnick’s report, and the lack of context makes it difficult to assess the situation. Much has been made this offseason of teams preferring to sign free agents to shorter-term deals at a higher annual value, and if that’s the case with Darvish’s five-year offer, then perhaps the overall value of the deal isn’t that far from early offseason expectations. (Many pundits, MLBTR included, projected six years for Darvish at the beginning of the offseason.) If the AAV is on the low end of the spectrum, however, then it perhaps isn’t difficult to see why Darvish and his reps at Wasserman have yet to jump on the contract.
With just about three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, there are still well over 100 free agents that need to find homes, so at some point one would have to imagine that either agents or clubs will begin to blink, setting the stage for a flurry of activity. There’s no evidence that Darvish and his agents are close to doing so at this juncture, though it stands to reason that his signing could have a trickle-down effect of sorts. Many of the same teams vying for his services have been linked to Alex Cobb and Jake Arrieta, and once those pieces fall into place, the remaining free-agent starters on the market could conceivably begin to come off the board.
He’s not worth 5 years.
No pitcher should ever get more than 4 years. 4 years plus options is fine. But only 4 should be guaranteed.
No pitcher? You think Kershaw , Sale, Bumgarner or Kluber isn’t worth 5 years….
Only Sale.
I think he’s speaking to longevity with injury risk, in which case I agree with him.
Well then you’re both morons. Bumgarner and Kershaw are generational talant that are irreplaceable. Both are worth 10 year deals, and nobody would regret it.
It’s matter of perspective:. in a sense, Sandy Koufax would not have been “worth” a 10 year deal at the top of his career because he wouldn’t have lasted the length of his contract, but he is “worth” a 5 year deal at twice the money per year. The trend seems to be going in the latter direction these days.
The trend is for decent but not elite players. If you think todays market trends would affect Kershaw Sale Bumgarner or any other top tier guys your wrong. They would have no issue fetching 7 years at a minimum on the market
You my friend are the idiot. Every player gets hurt, esp pitchers in today’s game. Tell me if these pitchers are so worth 10 year deals why neither got one? Please tell me one single 10 year deal ever in the mlb that was worth it? You can’t, so now go back to playing baseball video games thinking your peter gammons. Your opinion is like an a$$hole we all have them some are just better then others.
Morons for not giving mega deals to pitchers?With the volatile nature of pitching and the rise of analytics it has become pretty obvious that free agent mega deals that pan out are extremely rare. How many guys in the past 15-20 years have over night gone from being Cy Young contenders to living on the DL or forgetting how to pitch. Names like Barry Zito, Tim Lincecum, Brandon Webb, and Kevin Brown come to mind without much though.
I definitely think A-Rod’s original deal (10/256) before the extension was a pretty worthwhile investment.
Derek Jeter (10/189) signed in 2001 was a steal.
They’ll regret it in October, Kershaw can’t pitch in Ocotver, and don’t throw some stats at me saying he can, we all know he can’t
Ok Mr. selective memory. Whatever you say. Im fine with Kershaw on my team.
This isn’t an indictment of Sale or any other pitcher for that matter. None of them are as good as Clayton Kershaw and odds are they never will be.
Yeah. I’m just spitballing here but I think we should keep Kershaw.
ARod’s deal might have been worth it, when you look at WAR and other performance indicators. But since it was fueled by PED’s, it needs a major asterisk next to it.
Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Max and Scherzer are all just as good if not better than Sale. 30 out of 30 teams would sign them to more than 5 year deals if the opportunity presented itself and they had the ability to afford it.
A ten year deal for a pitcher??!!! And you are calling the others morons?
Not without the hgh and roids.
Elite pitchers who gets a 6 year deal but only pitch 3 good seasons are not exactly “worth” the six year deal. Basically, they were worth 3 years at twice the rate. Koufax at his prime would have been worth every penny int he world–if the market worked like it does today, but Koufax at age 33 was not a pitcher any more. Like I was saying, it’s a matter of perspective. Darvish may or may not get 5 year deal. Whether he will continue to be effective for most of those five seasons, no one will tell. If he is good for only 3 seasons, then he’d have gotten effectively 3 year deal with 80% extra.
The jury is out, in fact, even on Kershaw, Sale, and Baumgarner, too. No one knows that they will have been worth all the “years” that they are signed for, but the idea is that they’ll be so good when they are good that they will probably have been worth all the money they are paid even if they decline badly in the latter years. For the lesser pitchers, the balance between expected good years and bad years may not be so favorable.
Jeez, I didn’t know Arod and Jeter pitched! The stuff you learn here…
Bumgarner isn’t the same class as Kershaw and is behind Scherzer to
Absolutely not because Koufax was below avg for 6 of his 12 seasons. If he played today with same stats he wouldn’t be a HOF. Johan Santana has better numbers than Koufax but he’s not getting in because he’s body couldn’t hold up
Ted Williams was fueled by amphetamines along with the rest of baseball for 60 yrs. That steroid thing is laughable they have traced them back to 1887 in MLB
Kershaw as great as he is … is 29 now … 30 in March … and youd give him 10 years? You really think he’s going to be as healthy and as dominant when he’s 37-40 as he is now? Regret may not set in during the beginning of that 10 year deal but towards the end I’d bank in regret
There has never been even a 7-year deal that wasn’t regretted.
Sportsfan 10-180 Derek heree 2001-2010 worked pretty well
No not sale. He’s going to wake up one day and his arm is going to be on the floor. He has a bad delivery
In the regular season I want to win my division that’s it I’d rather have Tanaka or some other bad regular season pitcher and have be a elite in the postseason
Do you have a Crystal Ball?
Lol Sale is the last one on that list that should get 5 years. That arm is bound to fall off.
10 years is s stretch. But i agree Bum and Kershaw >>>> Sale. Gotta love that East Coast bias.
I hate to be that guy but… I’m not sure I have Bumgarner as that ‘once in a generational talent’ tier. There’s probably 5+ pitchers I’d rather have than him both this season and long term.
No I agree pitchers paid premium $$ for every 5 days. When they get her that’s a huge commitment. Baseball has shown us that one arm injury can equal 1 plus years of player gone but you are still paying that player
Every single pitching contract of 6 or more years has been worth at least market value.
So you are 100% wrong.
Zito?
Current players.
Too late. You already said “every single pitching contract.”
I agree. There are just too many variables to consider when it comes to pitchers, and injuries play an all too common occurrence with them. 2-3 years tops, incentives built in, make them earn their pay.
Enough of the “moron” talk. Both Bumgarner AND Kershaw are CURRENTLY on 7 year contracts. CURRENTLY. I’m pretty sure the contracts, except for a dirt bike accident, have served the respective teams well.
So shut the eff up, all of you, regarding these2 pitchers. The evidence of THEIR long term contracts’ return is kinda obvious. Pick different pitchers to argue about
Btw, if each gets a 3 yrcontract? 7+3 = 10. You think they’ll get 3 yr contracts??
And in a perfect world every free agent would take team friendly deals instead of maxing out their earning potential.
He’s worth whatever someone pays him.
Wrong.
Nope. That would be like someone overpaying for a used car and then claiming it is worth more because they paid more for it. Just because one idiot is willing to overpay does not raise the worth of something.
Worth is what you pay, value is what you get, you may not value you him on a 5 year deal but he is goin to be worth the exact contract he signs at the time
Actually, it’s nothing like that
The market will determine what the pay is
and WAR can determine the value!
Why do people keep saying this? Yes market value is a huge factor is setting the pay, but if the team ends up bidding against itself or a “mystery team” that doesn’t exist than it’s more than just the market at play and does not accurately portray the player’s true market value.
Also, market value is an average. Hence, one would need to look at the average dollar spent on something comparable such as WAR. Players on an individual basis cannot be assigned market value.
Well, yes it does. The market price for a unique product is simply that which 1 buyer is willing to pay and the seller is willing to sell for.
Now if you have a million identical products, the market price is simply the price that sells at the greatest profit, which is a function of both price and volume sold. Thats where one must look at what the average buyer will value it and not a single buyer. The latter is usually a higher price.
Players, houses, used cars are unique products coming in various conditions and have but one buyer and one seller
Houses and used cars are not viewed as unique. They have value based on comparable sales. If comparable sales say a house should be valued at $100,000, good luck getting a mortgage company to give you $200,000 to buy that house. A used 2003 Honda Accord has a blue book value or $2,000 to $4,000. If you pay $12,000 you’ve overpaid regardless of condition.
The game is changing. GMs are now using analytics to break a player’s performance down to numbers and then compare those numbers against the field. Like houses and cars, they are no longer viewed as unique.
If? But how many teams actually bid against themselves? If you think about it, all the teams do “EXIST” and can bid on a player!
That’s why it’s easier to say market value for baseball players or any sports figure, because they are unique
and the market is fixed at just so many buyers
and sellers! It’s a controlled market place.
Exactly….good bad or indifferent
sources say the clevland browns have signed Yu Darvish.There plan is to trade him to the Texas Rangers for Russel Wilson.Clevland Browns have finally got the qb they have always wanted and the rangers get much needed pitching.
This is one great comment my friend. I’m all in on this deal for both teams
Only if the Mariners can get all of Cleveland’s first round picks for the next two years.
He is worth 5 years. The question is whether or not he is the worth the money he will receive.
Darvish at 5 years 70 mill- most likely worth 5 years
Darvish at 5 years 200 mill- most definitely not worth 5 years.
Ok I don’t think pitchers are worth 10 years, even Kershaw. But there are definitely pitchers worth around 7 (Kershaw, Scherzer, Strasburg, Sale, Kluber, Bumgarner, maybe a couple others). If there’s an ace on the market they’re worth it. Darvish I wouldn’t quite say he’s an ace but he’s close, 4 or 5 years would make sense. And it’s not like everyone’s offering him 5 years, they said like 1 team has.
Does the age of the player figure into your worth calculations at all?
I guess not.
Smartest comment on this thread thus far.
You look at darvishs age he’ll soon decline with ability after the 4th and 5th year
You don’t know that
You can’t predict that. There are always anamolies ! Look at Nolan Ryan
Agree, but go after Jake, he has Nolan’s work ethic to become the anamolie.
Top 20 pitcher in baseball 5 years is good
Agreed. Darvish will get the IP and the Ks but predicting injuries within 3 years and fastball velo regressing to the point where he’ll be a #3 at best. Paying for 2-3 decent years then 2 overpaid AAV years.
Yay more no news.
Exactly, these rumors of potential rumors is indicative of this spectacularly boring offseason. I can’t wait for the floodgates to open so we can properly assess the contenders. Damn near 150 ML free agents still out there in limbo, coming up on the last week of January. I don’t recall this ever happening, at least not in my lifetime.
I have a friend who has a brother who knew a guy who overheard some kid in a grocery store saying he thought he had heard that Theo Epstein was considering the possibility of maybe offering someone a contract at some undetermined point in time. Gospel.
Come on, for real?
I’m almost certain my cousin knows a guy who’s sister dated an older man who saw it on the internet…
Twins should offer him 15 million a year for 5 years and a 50 million dollar signing bonus
and then trade for Chris Archer
lol he is going to get 20mil a year minimum. The Vikings have a better chance of playing in the super bowl this year than the twins do of signing Darvish for less than 20 mil per year.
I believe that’s incorrect since the Vikings lost and Darvish is still a FA, so however small is his chance is still better than zero 😛
Um….that works out to $25 million a year sooooo……Yeah.
That’s not nearly enough $$.
Did you not read the 50M signing bonus? If you break that down over the contracts life that’s 5yr/125M.. 25M per
And? With five or six teams bidding, do you really think $125MM over five years is all he’s going to get?
i don’t
You can’t realistically think that if he had 5yr/125M sitting out there he wouldn’t have taken that by now.
No team would commit to that kind of bonus though. A 28-30M/ yr contract that’s deferred 4-5 years would be more likely
I was unaware the Nationals had shown any interest in signing him
$125 million? Reportedly he had more guaranteed money offered by the Yankees.
The Yankees aren’t even involved so not sure where you heard that. They would have to dump salary to ensure they stay under the tax.
This website.
I read this morning on BR the Yankees signed him and traded Brett Gardner to the Orioles. Actually, I read it twice then as breaking news then it went away and I can’t find any reference. But I did read it and it was from a legit beat writer. Evidentially people were posting stuff without full knowledge.
Still the top arm available and a gang of suitors. 5/$120MM…
This offseason is honestly the worst I’ve ever seen. It’s terrible when news like this is the biggest you’ve seen in 3 weeks.
Nope… no collusion here. smh
What is your argument for collusion? There are teams trying to get under the luxury tax and others saving up for next year’s superstar free agents… In a context where there are a lot more young stars than ever before and less room for premium priced declining players
I don’t know, maybe it’s the “100 free agents waiting for contracts three weeks before spring training” part.
The problem is there are so many teams rebuilding not even trying to win. And then you have the teams that “want” to win but don’t spend (for example: the Pirates the past however many years).
Who guaranteed every player a job??
Exactly. Not to mention these big name guys have offers on the table. They are CHOOSING not to take them. That’s just like it us average joes had a job offer in hand but sat on it for too long. I wouldn’t feel bad if you missed out on the position. Darvish has a 5 year offer on the table..don’t want it because it’s for 100M instead of 150M? Give me a break
It’s not collusion, it’s a change to the former trend. Bad GMs throwing bad contracts to players paying for PAST performance is quickly becoming a thing of the past. Young, cost controlled studs, free agents ENTERING their prime is what every GM is looking for. The way the Cubs, Astros and, to an extent, the Dodgers is the blue print that most of the GMs are starting to adopt. Their trying to pay for the FUTURE production. The players on the wrong side of 30 are gonna have to settle for far less than players of the same age and similar skill set got in the past.
We know players, sports agents and GMs employ psychological tactics against one another. What is unique this off-season is the lack of compromise. Teams don’t want to pay market rate if they can get away with it, and players aren’t interested in settling for less to get a deal done. I think in Darvish’s case, there are a select few teams he wants to play for. He may be waiting for a particular team to step up and meet or exceed an offer from a less desirable team. The rest of the FAs are stuck in a holding pattern waiting for the top guys to sign for valuation. In any event, I see Darvish waiting on two teams: Rangers and Yankees. If neither team matches a standing offer from the Cubs, Twins or Brewers, he’ll probably go to the Cubs. I think the Yankees end up signing him before pitchers and catchers report, which is unfortunate for the game.
I agree, it is different. In the past, teams that felt they were close would over pay, whether in trade or free agency, for that 30+ year old player to “get them over the top”. Those “ALL IN” days are gone. Teams are smarter. The Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Royals, have changed the blue print. I’m telling ya, the 30 + former All Star free agents are in for a shock. Agents will be fired and the Japanese leagues are about to get a substantial influx of ML players. There will not be 150 ML signings in the next month. In the past, Big market teams laughed at the luxury tax, but NOW… the penalties are greater than just financial. Teams have proven they can win rings, and consistently contend with young, cost controlled studs as their core stars. It’s simply a different game. If you wanna try and “buy” a championship, best of luck to you. It’s not happening. The smart front offices that ALSO have spending power will win.
The key to your comment is “market rate”, that’s just it. Boras, and others, are desperately trying to grasp to the old “market rate”. Nowadays, these GMs are too smart to be desperate. Players like Harper and Machado will get those Stanton like contracts because they will be just entering their “prime”. Even those types of rare contracts are still tough. Stanton is perfect example, the Marlins essentially gave him away just to unload his contract IN SPITE of his age and the fact he’s coming off a MVP year. Other than Machado and Harper, and maybe Kershaw IF L.A. let’s him hit the open market, these other free agents aren’t gonna get these monster deals. If it was 5 years ago, JD at his current age/production would have already signed a 6/160+ deal. Yu and Jake would have been long off the board at 6/170+. The “market rate” has be redefined.
I don’t see collusion until there is evidence of collusion. What I see is a huge crop of over-paid middle-aged players. As a Twins fan, for instance, I like what we have, and what we have in the minor leagues too (save for a starting pitcher – Darvish – of course). I wonder how many other teams would rather build from within than over-pay players who have already hit or or beyond their prime. It’s a numbers game and it would appear to me that 100 free agents won’t all land the big paycheck they assumed was theirs.
So that means there is collusion? Teams need to just pay what players demand, huh? I think not
Blame the chefs. The flour is there. But the real blame goes to the likes of Chris Davis, Josh Hamilton, Big Panda, Pujols, Fielder, Choo, etc…. All have received a ton of flour (to use Boras’s words), but they can no longer cook worth a dang. When you keep getting bad food at high end restaurants, sooner or later you’re going to start thinking Olive Garden is a much better deal.
Good thing the Astros locked up Singleton. The Cubs are still ecstatic that they signed Hayward in his prime, too.
The Cubs are so “ecstatic” about Heyward that they bench him when they need offense. They’re better off without him, but no team will trade for Heyward without significant cash compensation.
Bryce Harper will get the biggest contract in baseball history, then mike trout will top it on his next contract Machado will get 300 mill Harper 400mill and 500 mill for Trout
Olive Garden IS a much better deal
It’s called analytics ! NOT collusion !
This. Analytics are winning more games, and the numbers just don’t favor athletes as they age. There are soft skills that analytics don’t take into account, but those rarely should add tens of millions to a contract.
Also, wasn’t the luxury tax and QO put into place to create more market equity – to make it so that large market teams didn’t just sign every big name free agent? If so, why haven’t smaller market teams stepped up? Probably because the big name free agents are setting their demands based on the ability of larger market teams to pay, and banking on the larger market teams’ willingness to blow through the tax threshold. With the penalties now impacting more than just money, ownership and management are getting smarter, or at least more fiscally responsible. Either the players get paid what they want, or they level the market for teams of all sizes. I am not sure it can work both ways for free agents that aren’t the most elite.
Ok, fine. Your analysis may dictate Darvish has about three prime years left. What about the 100+ other free agents still waiting for contracts? That is the salient point you guys are ignoring. Teams aren’t signing anyone and we’re three weeks away from early report. That is collusion.
Out of those 100+ free agents still available, how many of them are under the age of 31?
Here’s the list. Take a look and do a count:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html
OK, I’ll save you the trouble: It’s 32.
Yup, less than 1/3 of the FAs available are under the age of 31, and a lot of the guys who are under that age are not very good players.
Now, if it’s true that more and more teams are aware of the aging curve, and are hesitant to sign guys north of 30 to big money, long term deals… well, it seems to me that when 70% of the remaining FA’s are in to or entering their decline years, it’s pretty clear what’s going on.
Teams – and their fans – have figured out that the big long term contract to guys in their decline years is as much of a crapshoot as the postseason – and that contracts like that have as much chance to make their teams less competitive in the long run as they do to make the team competitive.
Look at all the albatross contracts out there that are restricting and hurting their team’s ability to go after FA’s this season.
Examples: Kemp, LA, Ellsbury, Yankees, Fielder, TEX,DET, Pujols, LAA, Price, Pablo, BOS.
There are others too.
Now ask yourself how many of those big contracts have worked out?
And here’s the rub: A lot of those deals have been negotiated by none other than Scott Boras.
In short, he’s helped create his own monster, and now he’s asking why and complaining that no teams are willing to take the risk of signing these guys into their late 30’s.
He should look in the mirror for his answer.
Do you even know what collusion means?
The analytics are colluding. 30 separate analytic departments can not otherwise reach the same valuations to teams with far different needs and means
I’m not sure one way or the other but if this is how the young guys are going to be paid , they need to renegotiate arbitration and get rid of a few years to spread the wealth!
It’s not collusion ! All the teams would have to be meeting
and coming to an agreement to not sign certain players! This is just not the case! It’s smarter front offices using analytics!
Don’t worry, the Giants just signed Austin Jackson. 2 years 6 million.
So owners finally realizing it makes no sense to pay players through there 30’s mega bucks for 5-7 years? That is not collusion, that is common sense. I think that you will see 20-25M/year deals but just not for long term unless the player is younger. Thinking you will start to see agents work on extending guys longer through the Arb years and the first year or two of FA to maximize the long term guaranteed money.
The players union ( which I don’t care for ) needs to renegotiate and get a couple years of arbitration dropped if this is how the players are going to be treated, a few token one year contracts then a 3 year contract in their prime at a discounted rate, brought about by the surplus of 32 year old guys looking for work. I see a strike coming on the next contract, mark my words
Hahahaha Austin Jackson might be their youngest most promising young player.
they should be signing Dyson, bargain buy for someone eventually.
Where’s the story? Who reported it?
It hasn’t been reported yet. I’m guessing it will come out today or tomorrow.
Nice job, MadBum.
Are you a wizard?
How did you know this 5 hours ago?
Just wait til the levee breaks then you won’t have time to complain between news.
I hope he goes to the twins
Hoping that either Minnesota or Milwaukee sign him. Twins could use him badly to try and maintain playoff contender status.
The Brewers would also greatly benefit from signing Darvish…the Cubs have that division locked…but the Brew Crew could possibly catch St.Louis with Darvish and another good signing
Teams like the Twin and Brewers are better off using their farm system depth to trade for a young controllable pitcher. Darvish and Arrieta are solid additions to established rotations, but they’re staff aces anymore.
*NOT staff aces…
I agree. They are not aces anymore
Depends on the staff. Put either of them on the Reds and they are far and away the staff ace. On the Dodgers, not so much.
The point is they don’t produce like aces anymore. Smaller market teams that lack depth in their rotation won’t get a return on investment they’re expecting.
This right here. Some fans in MKE have been clamoring for Stearns to make a move for a Darvish, or an Arrietta. I would much rather see them use that OF depth they’ve accumulated to make a trade for an Archer or even Odorrizi. Controllable younger arms should be their target instead of FA offers to veterans on the wrong side of 30
Both of those teams are far enough along to add a stabilizing veteran. Why trade away your youth/prospects when you dont have to. There will be opportunity at the trade deadline when FA’s arent an alternative. This is not to say they have to buy the most expensive player, however.
The Cubs have the division locked do they? Don’t bet the farm on it! Their starting pitching is horrible
and the bullpen is going to implode AGAIN!
Horrible? Explain
He can’t
Explanation =he’s a troll
Who in the Cubs rotation is “horrible”? One could argue Montgomery won’t be serviceable as a starter for the whole season. The Cubs know this, which means they’ll acquire another quality starter at some point this season, if not before it.
Montgomery won’t even be in the rotation, so you won’t have to worry about that. Bullpen or traded, he wants to start.
Horrible means the cubs top starter with 3.50 is arrieta is gone. They also have aged started in the 4+ ERA last season.
I don’t want Montgomery starting unless there is an injury
The Cubs staff is not horrible, it’s definitely good enough to win the division again. BUT, I don’t think it’s good enough to get back to the World Series. A 4th straight NLCS? Perhaps, but they need another starter and/or another stud backend guy (8th or 9th) inning guy to really compete for another World Series. All this talk about Cubs pitching over the last couple years is misleading. Check the numbers, they’ve actually lead MLB in era over the last 3 years. It gets overshadowed by their young, cost controlled group of stud position players, but their pitching has been great. Theo/Jed know this better than anyone, one of the smartest front offices in baseball if not THE smartest. They’ll fill in the blanks, they’ll add another arm or two. They’re not hamstrung like the Dodgers or Yanks with the luxury tax. They can add and they will. I’m not even sort of worried.
They didn’t lead in ERA last year..
A 3.50 ERA is not horrible for a starting pitcher. None of the Cubs starters are lights out aces, but they are solid from #1 thru #4. If they can add another solid starter like Darvish or Arietta (not sold on Cobb yet), they would be one of the top 5 rotations in the game. The addition of a quality closer would make them the favorite to win the N.L. on paper, imo.
The last three years stats wont count this year. Plus, the cupboard of prospects is rather bare for acquiring talent during the season. Nows the time for them to acquire some FAs.
In 2015 cardinals lead MLB in ERA are you lying to me bud?
Hahaha, no, I’m not saying the Cubs had the best era in baseball 3 consecutive years, I said OVER the last 3 years (collectively) …. or combined, they’ve had the best ERA in baseball. The point being that all this talk about their young, cost controlled studs around the diamond, people tend to forget that they’re pitching has been really, REALLY good. To keep that elite level of pitching, they’ll need to replace Arrieta’s production(Darvish?) and perhaps add another late inning reliever. As great as they’ve been at drafting/trading for/developing positional players, they’ve been equally inept at developing pitching. The obvious exceptions were trades where they fleeced the O’s (Artietta, Strop) and the Rangers (Hendricks, Edwards). Getting Q was a huge move, but that wasn’t so much as a fleece as it was dealing from a position of strength/surplus. Jimenez will be very good.
With Hendricks, Lester, Quintana even if the 4-5 are minimal the rotation isn’t horrible. Pretty jaded to say they are horrible and the bullpen is going to implode again considering that over the past three seasons, cumulative, the Cubs have the best ERA in baseball. A drop off or regression, sure, but horrible, far from it.
Yes…Cubs have the division locked…
Who is going to beat them??
St. Louis??
Milwaukee??
Locked might be ambitious, but at this point, MIL and/STL hasn’t done enough to close the gap. Also, teams rarely use a 4th starter and never use a 5th starter in the playoffs. With Lester, Hendricks and Q, plus all the pen additions, the Cubs have enough for a 4th straight NLCS appearance. I’m confident that Theo/Jed will add at least one more arm to the mix. They’ll have as good a shot as the Nats/Dodgers to get to the WS. I’m not worried.
Yeah you named them for a reason you knew that answer. Cubs fans stop getting a big head, cubs need MUCH for improvement.
Cardinals got Reyes back plus Ozuna who is so underrated. Cardinals outfield is one of the best if Pham repeats. Cardinals infield is decent gyroko/dejong/Wong/carpenter. With one of the best catchers ever in in the game. Than Cardinals have a average rotation, not good Martinez/weaver/wacha/wainwright/mikolas plenty of young arms but waino and mikolas have to prove themselves. And we upgraded are bullpen with gregerson and leone. You cubs don’t know if are bullpen was elite last year and didn’t blow 15 games the cardinals would be in 1st and cardinals fixed that problem!
So stop acting like the cardinals or brewers are no danger because they will come and take care of ya cubbies!
Seldom do teams not go 4 deep in the playoffs.
Probably
I’ll come back to this post in October and see if you still feel that way lol. A lot can happen between now and then and statistics show both Lester and “Q” are starting to decline. Im not sold on the Cards rotation but I also don’t count it out with all the young, potential star talent just waiting for their shot this season. Until the Cubs add an arm like Dervish or even an Arrieta I wouldn’t buy your post season tickets just yet. And even then….who knows.
Q hasn’t even peaked yet, Lester has been as steady as they come. Hendricks has proven to be legit, that’s 3 TOR starters. Teams rarely use a 4th starter in the PO and never a 5th. That being said, I do agree that they need another stud starter(Hopefully Darvish, bare min. Cobb) to compete legitimately for another World Series, BUT, as currently constructed I believe they have enough to win the division again. MIL and STL still haven’t done enough to close the gap.
Its horrible huh? Please explain
The a Cubs are the favorite. The Cardinals have closed the gap but the Cubs still have at least one move to make. The Brewers are the third place team in the division.
Cubs don’t have the division locked. Trust me
They don’t have it locked but to say their rotation is horrible is stupid.
I take horrible back, they are average. All there star pitchers under preformed, sure they can bounce back but for now cubs rotation is average.
Cubs are toast man..toast-window shut!!!
Bashing the Cubs’ starting rotation based on one year is foolish, but understandable. Most fans are incapable of being objective about sports. To say you are severely underestimating the quality and depth of that staff would be an understatement.
Saying the brewers and cardinals are no danger to the cubs is foolish as well.
Not really. Nothing the Cardinals or Brewers have done during this offseason makes them better than the Cubs on paper. They’ll have to earn respect by winning the division just like the Cubs did in 2016.
Cardinals have the respect…lol they are the most successful NL team ever.
The Cubs are favored to win the NL Central until the Brewers or Cardinals prove themselves.
They already did. Ozuna,gregerson,leone
lol
Ozuna had a better offensive season than any cubs player you can’t say the cardinals didn’t do enough, that is just the dumbest comment ever.
Plays he’s a good glover
*plus he’s a gold glover
With their offense, an average pitching staff is plenty. And they will get another TOR pitcher. I trust Theo/Jed.
Maybe if anyone wants to go to Chicago
Obviously Cobb doesn’t
Thank you SoxCity for not being a troll like so many other Sox fans
Ok! Let’s take away horrible ! But how do all the Cubs fans always say their players havn’t peaked yet or they are gonna get better every year, but the other teams in the division are gonna regress ? Every time! Wait
and see, the Cubs pitching is gonna regress in my opinion
and their bullpen did implode in the post-season last year! But good luck thus year!
c1234, I wouldn’t trust you if you said the sun was gonna rise tomorrow
Ur dumb
I’m here to talk baseball get out of here
You’re here to troll. Go back to your mommy.
I’m here to tap abon it baseball not the sun rising. Not a troll. I’m a human defending me St. Louis Cardinals because you big headed cub fans think you got the division locked.
I havnt seen you post anything even remotely close to baseball related at all! Just a bunch of name calling
I’m talking to you Vaginagin! Do you even watch baseball at all?
The Cubs don’t have the division locked! The whole division is getting better !
heard Milwaukee’s offer is close to 5 years 115 million.
From who?
Much ado about nothing.
I don’t see the Rangers or Dodgers getting him so it’s down to Twins, Brewers and Cubs.
5 years/$5mil from the Rangers would be a good deal.
It’s got to be the Brewers or Twins with the 5 year offer. Yu seems like a big market guy so they will have to try and persuade him with the 5th year. If the Yankees or Dodgers had offered a 5th year he would probably have signed already
How does he “seem like a big market guy?” The Rangers are a mid-market team and he signed with them.
Dallas is mid-market? GTFOH
Try it’s the 5th largest media market in the country. NYC, Chicago, LA, Philly, then Dallas. Yu has always been big market.
He’s the opposite. He doesn’t do big flashy things or make many media appearances. Not to say he wouldn’t sign with big market teams but the bigger markets won’t have an advantage really.
You know the Rangers would never offer any FA a 5 year deal – so they are out.
One word – Choo.
Gezundheit
Darvish is going to a non contender.He just can’t get the job done in the BIG GAMES !!! Lol
He’ll fit in nicely in Milwaukee
A source close to the President says that Darvish really wants to return to LA, and Dodgers working on getting rid of Kemp and contract by packaging a couple of prospects with Kemp to WhiteSox. Stay tuned.
Trump?
Fake News!
Macron. This rumor comes via Paris, so we know it’s accurate.
Yu is just holding out to see if the Rangers can come close to the best offer. He doesn’t want to leave Dallas unless he’s blown away.
Honestly I think this is more or less true. Either that or Daniels is bluffing big on not having interest in big signings. It doesn’t make sense for him to be saying that and Darvish to be saying the Rangers are still in it.
He s#cks can’t win in the W.S. So what real team would want him ??????
Dictating a player off 2 WS games, GENIUS! I guess Kershaw isn’t worth more than 20M/yr either. His Postseason ERA sucks
Makes sense for the Brewers to overpay to keep him from the Cubs. Not sure he’s a good fit with the Cubs seeing it will cut them real close to the luxury tax.
Yeah, you know, cuz the Cubs don’t have the resources to pay luxury taxes every year. Must be real tough for these large market cash cow teams.
Not even close Cubs still have 32 mil available. Where do you guys come up with this stuff
I was being sarcastic.
It’s all smoking mirrors by Boras leaking information to get clubs to stop dragging their feet.
Well Darvish isn’t a Boras client so.
I think the saying is actually smoke and mirrors
But I do wonder how smoking mirrors would go.
Tried it. Hard to keep it lit.
Haha it’s water under the fridge
Recreational mirror smoking will be on the ballot in the fall. Currently you need a prescription.
lol
Boras is leaking information about other people’s clients?
lol… can’t make this stuff up.
there’s a 50% chance this is just the agent priming the waters. And it really doesn’t matter unless we know the APV. What if it’s for $75M?
5 years? Gotta be the Brewers.
I think he’ll sign with the Cubs.
Darvish is not an elite talent. He’s a mid-rotation guy, a solid 2 when at his very best. He’s got a lot of wear and tear, and I simply don’t see the guy as a $25M Dollar a year arm. $15M at best. If he were on the market next offseason, I betcha the best he could do would be a 4/$60 contract. I’m just throwing this out there because I really don’t see him as a guy I’d want to commit that much money to when there are better alternatives with controllable seasons left (out on the trade market). For all the numbers that have been spewed about this free agent class, there isn’t one that makes sense for the money.
It makes sense for the money if you dont have the desire to trade the prospects most teams want back, or you just dont have prospects to trade.
15 at best lol that’s less than a QO that’s a good one
You just admitted that his value is not only base on stats, but also the market. Also, who are those available that are better and how much in prospects it would cost the Cubs?
If they don’t include the team it didn’t happen.
Don’t be sad that it’s isn’t over, be happy that it didn’t happen.
(Apologies to Dr. Suess.)
Right. Even the fact that he’s been offered a 5 year contract is hearsay. Most fortune cookies are more specific than the rumors we’ve heard lately.
If he signs with the cubs I hope they overpay for him. 5yr/135M or something like that
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Realistic Scenario for the Brewers…
1) Sign Darvish 5/115M(30M for first 2yrs)
2) Trade CF Broxton, and SS/2B Dubon(Top 10 org) to the Indians for 2B Kipnis and 10M
3) Trade CF Brinson(Top 50*), RHP Burnes(Top 100*), 3B McClanahan and RHP Ponce(Top 30 org) to the Rays for RP Colome
4) Trade SP Woodruff(Top 100*), 2B Diaz(Top 10 org), and 3B/1B Lara to the Marlins for C Realmuto.
5) Cut C Vogt
Gives the Brewers a solid lineup for this upcoming year without completely depleting the farm system(Still would have Ray, Hiura, Harrison, and Ortiz, which all have the possibility of being top 100 prospects in various lists). Would have a playoff caliber trio in Darvish, Nelson and Anderson, and a nice 7th, 8th and 9th inning backend in Hader, Colome and Knebel. Both Colome and Realmuto are signed through 2020 which allows some protection in case last year was a fluke.
Giving up Brinson and Barnes for Colome is a huge overpay in my opinion. I wouldn’t mind the Kipnis deal though. I think if we packaged Brinson with another decent prospect we could land Herrera and whit from KC.
I agree its a slight overpay, but good relievers have that price tag, especially with 3 yrs of control.
Good relievers have come with a bigger price tag of late, especially around the deadline, but a top 20 prospect, Burnes who has soared up rankings since altering his delivery, and Ponce who is just finally getting back to 100% healthy and has a pretty high ceiling for Colome? Plus a throw in? That’s a vast overpay for a guy who would probably end up as a set up man behind Knebel.
Lol right.. no way they trade two of their best prospects for Colome and also the package for Realmuto is way too weak.
Inb4 he goes to the Rays
Everyone wants him. Fans of other want him. Don’t let them fool you.
Cubs will sign him and all the trolls n haters will come out. Over paid. Too long a contract. Not worth it. When the tables turn so do the other fans. Bank it. It never fails unless it their team.
I’m a brewers fan and I don’t want to sign him for anything more than 4yr/85M. Yes I of course think he will get more. It also never fails that pitchers who get to their mid to late 30’s are worth nowhere near the 5yr/20M-25M per Darvish will get.
Would still rather see the Cubs sign Arrieta back. I don’t understand why most people think Darvish is that much better.
Agreed
Increased walks and HRs the last two seasons suggests Arrieta is declining. He could bounce back, or he could be the next barely average starter making $20MM per year. Darvish is not as risky.
He has TJS behind him. Arrieta does not and his performance decline has folks wary
Jake was great, but Yu has a more consistent track record. Theo/Jed are arguably the smartest front office guys in baseball. They know Jake better than any team in the league. There is a reason they didn’t re sign him already. Yu projects to be the better bet moving forward.
Because watching everyone of Jake’s 2017 starts. He wasn’t the same as 2015/16. Anyone who is a true fan (not a homer) saw it. Need an upgrade. 4/125 with an opt out. You don’t give an over age 30 pitcher longer time. You’ll pay for downsize
The lack of rumors this offseason is puzzling, and last offseason as well. You would think agents would try to generate more buzz about their clients even if they have to make it up . Unless some journalists are part of the conspiracy.
” who once forged a strong bond with Darvish when the two played with the Rangers.”
Please stop. It was 79 innings in 2014, that’s 9 games. If the Cubs get Yu it will be because they paid him, not because of Chris Gimenez.
Please stop. Forming a bond/friendship does not mean they have to be battery mates. A starting RF’er can become close friends with RP. Forming a friendship has to do with personality.
That said, there are articles/tweets etc saying that CG was Yu’s favorite catcher although I have not seen a direct quote from Darvish. CG and Darvish did talk about the Twins ( https://www.twincities.com/2017/12/12/relationship-with-twins-gm-thad-levine-could-be-game-changer-for-yu-darvish/ ) but if CG was/is a key to signing Yu then why didn’t MN resign him? Levine knows Darvish well so you would think if CG is a key an effort would have been made.
It should also be noted that there is a familiarity between Maddon and CG as well as Cobb/Maddon/Gimenez.
Cat Mando,
Don’t think that Yu is signing with Chicago because of CG!
And where does it say he was best bros with CG!
Friendship/personality…..PLEASE give me a break.
If there is no direct quote from Yu regarding CG being his personal favorite than the articles/tweets you refer to are just rumors at best!
And, what familiarity does CG have with Maddon…..they both make a living in professional baseball?????
Did you read or just get your tidy whiteys in a bunch.
“Don’t think that Yu is signing with Chicago because of CG!” I never said I believed it either. What I did say is a pitcher and catcher can become friends even if they are not battery mates. It’s really not a hard concept and to say that they could not become friends is less than bright.
“And where does it say he was best bros with CG!” I did not say they were did I?..comprehension does not run in your family does it?
“Friendship/personality…..PLEASE give me a break.” Yes, that is how most form friendships…they like the others personality. Of course with your personality it seems feasible you pay for yours.
“If there is no direct quote from Yu regarding CG being his personal favorite than the articles/tweets you refer to are just rumors at best!” Wow!! Ya think? Imagine that…..a rumor about ballplayers on a baseball rumor site.
“And, what familiarity does CG have with Maddon…..they both make a living in professional baseball?????” Well, there could be the fact that one is a former Rays catcher and the other was his manager.
Have a nice night
bernbabybern
Right on Brother, lots of hearsay about this supposed “bond” between a journeyman catcher and one of the elite pitchers in baseball that was forged over 2 years ago and as you point out over a whopping 9 games! Guess they chewed each others bubblegum between innings!
If Yu signs with the Cubs, its because they gave him the best offer!
Exactly ! They said the same thing about Darvish
and Ohtani
Close to 4 ERA and a losing record over the last two seasons. Gotta buy me a $100 million worth of that! Yu got it!
Wins and losses are an irrelevant stat.
Really? A pitcher only gets a loss when he allows more runs than the opposing pitcher. Just a matter of fact.
Which a pitcher can easily do by only giving up only 1 run in a game.
Cubs will have the highest payroll soon. Specially if their fans think they will sign harper next year. If they do sign darvish, their payroll this year will be around 180-190 maybe more. Then if they sign harper, it will be higher.
So what?
Yeah, cubs fans are stupid, I’m a cubs fan, I would know. I don’t want harper and don’t think they’ll sign him. But yeah, we have some idiots as fans.
That’s hilarious.
Shred
Well according to some sources on twitter cubs have about 35 mil free right now, So no, they are not going over the tax, if they can land harper next year, they probably will go over it, but not happening this year anyhow.
Man I can just feel that the Orioles are going sign him…….in about 12 years. Haha
Theo and Jed already got one dodger they don’t need a 2nd. They need to forget Yu and go after Cobb and a closer.
Cobb & holland works
Darvish was 26th In mlb in e.r.a. 12th in strikeouts 13th in both whip and batting average against. What are ace stats? You need 4 starters in postseason. Hendricks Lester Quintana Chatwood Or darvish Hendricks Lester Quintana . That to me makes a huge difference. Small sample size for his World Series struggles . He was great 9 games he pitched for dodgers after trade and nlds and nlcs.
He pitched in the A.L.
You have to make it to the post-season
first! Most teams need at least 8 starters to get through the season !
Really hope he goes to Milwaukee or Minnesota. Yanks, Cubs, etc will all be fine without him. Going to one of those two teams will really help them to contend… Unless he goes full David Price in the playoffs every year.
He’ll hate Milwaukee.
Have you actually been to Milwaukee or are you assuming? Because from my point of view he would hate not being able to breathe in Chicago or NY.
Lol, what?
My whole point was some people don’t have to go to huge cities. To say he “will hate Milwaukee” is not a comment with much common sense behind it. It was me being smart by saying not everyone likes to take in the pollution, smog and lovely smells of the big cities.
I guess that makes sense… to you.
Lol. Yes I’ve been to MKE. And it’s no cleaner than CHI. In fact, the Milwaukee River is beyond disgusting and one of the most polluted bodies of water in the country.
Have you ever been to Chicago?
im from chicago, 38 years old and this arguement is just dumb. who cares about rivers and what city is bigger and blah blah blah. the brewers have just a good chance at landing top FAs as most teams. It is about the current state of all teams and the current state for the brewers is good. I hate the bullshit about “but its chicago yada yada”.
whoever wins this race will regret it sooner than later
probably
10 year deals are never worth it at the end. 7 years deals r rarely worth it at the end.
Now saying that there is exceptions to every rule. Jeter was worth it in 01… Harper and Machado will probably get 10 years deals that will b worth it. Considering they will b 25/26. But, most of ur free agents don’t hit the market at 24-27 when a 10 year deal will not b in the severe decline years.
No1 in there right mind would expect a guy to b the same player when they r 26 as they r when there 36.
If it goes 6 years, I guarantee you the Cubs will be out. In fact, I can’t see them going beyond 4 plus an option. I can see a team like the Twins or Brewers being willing to go beyond 4 years, but not the Cubs.
Looks like Cobb or Lynn for cubs
So the update was the cubs have made Darvish a priority and there COULD be more teams in. The beauty of the slowest developing offseason on record.
Completely agree. 4 years he goes to the Cubs. Anymore it wont be a competitive team
Milwaukee and Minnesota are both competitive teams.
I believe He was saying the Cubs won’t be a competitive team in five years if they still have Darvish on the roster at a premium price.
Why? They’ll have a boatload of money when they get their own Cable station.
Every team is saving Money to stay under Luxury and 2018-2019 a lot of good players are free agents.
Have any of the teams trying to sign Jake Arrieta noticed that the Cubs are trying to sign Darvish but have shown zero interest in keeping Arrieta?
Not sure there could be a bigger red flag.
or maybe his agent is scott boras…are all the remaining FAs tied to scott boras “red flags”??? cmon think
Darvish isn’t a Boras client.
read again…he is talking about Jake Arrieta
I’m sure they have been in contact with him.
I’m sure they have been in contact with him.
Let Darvish blow up in the playoffs for the Cubs.
Guess you missed the NLDS and the NLCS when he was lights out.
Astros clearly picked something up in the world series. I’m sure it’s easily fixable
Rizzo and Bryant were amazing in 2016 nlcs did nothing in 2017 nlcs. It’s baseball . Bellinger and turner stunk it up in World Series but nobody says a word
He was tipping his pitches, easily correctable.
Its more than that. Yu has a history of struggling in the early innings.
No one cares about me, why should they care about Yu?
Makes no sense
Here’s one fan who doesn’t get jokes
I think the Cubs offer the most money for a chance to win. Yu signs with the Cubs.
In my opinion if the Brewers are fortunate enough to sign Darvish then more moves will follow quickly for them.
Not only is Brinson available because of the emergence of Monte Harrison, then highly thought of pitching prospects will be as well.
With the signing of Darvish this will allow the Brewers to offer an attractive package for Yelich. Possibly as much as 4 top 100 prospects and still enough money available to take on Castro’s contract if that is what Miami would want to make it happen. We can argue about which prospects but everything would start with Brinson and Woodruff for sure.
Will these two moves make Milwaukee a contender? Maybe not but it should help them be more competitive.
If Phillips isn’t a part of the Yelich deal then Santana still could be piece in another move for another top pitcher.
One more strong move could turn the Brewers from being competitive to being a legitimate contender in the NL central.
Cubs fans need to realize the division is not all about them
Brewers should offer 5 years 110 million for Darvish with the 5th year being some kind of a option