TUESDAY: The Cubs have announced the deal.
It breaks down as follows, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter): $25MM in 2018, $20MM in 2019, $22MM apiece in 2020 and 2021, $19MM in 2022, and $18MM in 2023. That allocation means that Darvish will face at least a four-year, $81MM decision (depending upon escalators) when his opt-out opportunity arises.
Per Nightengale, also, the full no-trade protection extends through the first four years of the contract.
SUNDAY, 4:05pm: Darvish has a full no-trade clause for part of the deal, then it switches to a 12-team list, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link).
1:50pm: Darvish has the ability to block a trade to nearly every team, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Additionally, in any year of the contract, he could earn $2MM extra with a Cy Young Award or $1MM if he finishes second to fifth in the voting.
SATURDAY, 6:02pm: Darvish’s opt-out comes after the 2019 season, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets.
5:17pm: The Cubs and Yu Darvish have agreed to terms on a contract that will bring the righty to Chicago, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. The deal guarantees the Wasserman client $126MM over six years (though the total value can reportedly reach $150MM via escalators), and is pending a physical. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that the contract also includes both an opt-out clause “earlier than three years into his contract” and no-trade protection (Twitter link).
With Darvish in the fold alongside Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Chatwood, the reigning NL Central champs will have one of the more complete (and formidable) rotations in all of baseball. Thanks in part to that group, they should enter the upcoming season as the favorites to win the division again, despite the aggressive moves the rival Brewers have made this winter.
In Darvish, who divided last year between the Rangers and Dodgers, the Cubs are getting a hurler who in 2017 ranked as the majors’ 16th-best pitcher by fWAR (3.5) and 12th-best in terms of strikeouts per nine innings (10.08). He also racked up 186 2/3 innings, his most since 2013, and pitched to a 3.86 ERA/3.83 FIP. He figures to replace Jake Arrieta near the front of the Cubs’ rotation. Because Darvish was part of a midseason trade, the Dodgers could not issue him a qualifying offer to begin the winter. Consequently, reeling him in won’t cost Chicago any draft-pick compensation or international bonus pool money.
Of course, the impact of this signing sends ripples far beyond the NL Central alone. MLBTR had ranked Darvish as the best available free agent among our top 50 (Tim Dierkes & Co. actually predicted he’d end up with the Cubs). This deal could well mean that many other free agent dominoes will begin to fall soon. In particular, many have theorized that teams may have been waiting for Darvish to sign before moving onto lesser free agents such as Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. The Dodgers, Twins, and Brewers had all reportedly made serious offers for Darvish; they’ll now have to set their sights on other options.
The contract itself is by far the largest ever given to a free agent in February. Although the total guarantee is significantly south of the $160MM we predicted he’d receive back in November, the deal itself could perhaps ease some of the ongoing tension between the players union and MLB, which has escalated to a boiling point in recent weeks due to teams’ unwillingness to meet the asking prices of many top free agents. There has perhaps been as much focus on the glacial pace of the offseason as there has been on the free agents themselves, and the Darvish signing is certainly a step in the right direction.
On the other hand, the top four remaining free agents are now J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Jake Arrieta and Mike Moustakas – all of whom are clients of Scott Boras. With the super-agent firmly in control of the top of the market, there’s no guarantee that other pieces will fall into place any time soon.
[RELATED: Updated Cubs Depth Chart/Team Payroll]
Darvish’s major league career started out in spectacular fashion. After the Rangers spent over $100MM between salary guarantees and posting fees in order to sign him out of Japan prior to 2012, he rewarded them by delivering two consecutive seasons of at least 4.5 fWAR. The talented righty was on his way to another fantastic campaign in 2014, but had to be shut down in August due to elbow issues. Those issues ultimately led to a Tommy John surgery in March of the following year, meaning the ace didn’t take the mound for the Rangers for nearly two years.
When Darvish made his return on May 28, 2016, he picked up right where he left off. In 287 innings since that date, all Darvish has done is strike out 341 hitters while walking just 89. His 3.70 ERA and 3.49 xFIP during that span are among the best marks in the major leagues, and he’s posted the 14th-best soft contact rate in the major leagues during that span.
Of course, Darvish’s solid 2017 season was unfortunately covered in shadow by his dreadful World Series performance with the Dodgers. He faced 22 Astros hitters across his two starts while recording just 10 outs and allowing eight earned runs. Darvish was saddled with the loss for both of those games, one of which was the seventh and final game of the series.
However, while his bellyflop is perhaps the most prominent impression left in the minds of Dodgers fans, there are a number of important factors to consider. The first and perhaps most obvious is that 3 1/3 innings is an incredibly small sample size, particularly against a juggernaut Astros offense that also tore through pitchers like Chris Sale in the same postseason. Another is that many Astros hitters went on record saying that Darvish was tipping his pitches in Game Seven; they could tell whether he was going to throw a cutter or a breaking ball by watching whether he adjusted his grip on the ball before bringing it to his glove. Finally, the two World Series starts were Darvish’s 36th and 37th of the season, which is especially notable because he hadn’t pitched a more than 150 innings in a season since 2013.
Darvish’s pitch arsenal is one of his most unique assets. According to Brooks Baseball, he threw a four-seamer, slider, sinker, curve, cutter, change-up and splitter during the 2017 season. While the sinker and change-up were each utilized less than 2% of the time, such an expansive repertoire sets Darvish apart from other MLB aces. Fortunately for him, he’ll once again be reunited with catcher Chris Gimenez. The two played together during their years with the Rangers, where Gimenez had great success working with Darvish and his arsenal. The Cubs signed Gimenez to a minor-league deal about three weeks ago, though whether that factor had any impact at all on Davish’s decision is a guessing game at this point.
While there’s a chance Darvish will pitch to Gimenez in 2018, it seems likely most of his work will come with starting catcher Willson Contreras. The 25-year-old expressed excitement about the Darvish deal on Twitter, noting that he “can’t wait to catch” the four-time All-Star.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
My prediction came true!!
In First post in the bottom link. I predicted exact contract!!!
link to mlbtraderumors.com
Atta way dude!
Wow!! Where are those Brewers fans at now, screaming “my Brewers are better than the Cubs. They will win 120 games next season”?
Im guessing you are exaggerating I doubt anyone thinks their team will win 120 games… well maybe Cubs fans do.
Haha and you say cubs fans are over compensating. Glass house my dude, glass house.
Look at the Brewers sign Lorenzo Cain post. There was a guy that said the Cubs would be below .500 if Rizzo or Bryant got injured. Like Brewers players don’t have a chance at being injured too.
I remember that thread and it was that Yankee guy who said somewhere in here that the Cubs are now even with the Pirates. Clearly he just hates the Cubs, but claiming he represents Brewers fans is simply untrue as is saying that Brewers fans were saying that the Brewers would win 120 games this year.
You couldn’t be more wrong. I don’t know of any Cub fan who said that. I do know a lot of Brewer fans who said they win the division when Yelche came over. Card fans also have been bragging about winning the division and fighting it out with the Brewers. I can show some post were several not 1 but as I counted 6 at least have said the Yankees would not only win 125 games but go unbeaten in post season, win the WS and hot over 900 home runs. I guess the Cubs haters will be out in full force today. Get over it and yourselves.
Wow, might want to get a life and stop counting how many posts take a shot at the Cubs. No doubt Cubs are the class of the division until someone proves otherwise
Brewers1, I have a life maybe read other post, before defending idiots and child trolls and haters. Then what do I expect from a Milw fan. What is wrong? Tide change a bit.I don’t count how many post. I have a life. Seems like you haters, trolls and idiots are the ones wo a life. Im stating a fact responding to someone who made a statement about Cubs fans saying they would win 120 games. NOT true and I never seen it. But I responded by stating a real fact. So get over it. I knew the haters would come out today. Get over it act like people who talk real baseball. Instead of stupid childish remarks, on jealous people. As someone sated the Cubs could get Harper, Trout, CK and the haters will have something to say that bad. That is my point.
Can “bigcubsfan” just enjoy signing one of the premiere free agents up for grabs?
Nope, first impulse is to troll the fans of the other teams in the division.
Sad.
Way to wise up
G Yekatman if the shoe fits ware it. I saw BOTH Card fans why I don’t know and Brewer fans do the same thing when they signed Yelch and Cain. HMMM HYPOCRITE ARE WE?
On top of this bargain AAV, the Cubs also don’t have to give up a pick or international money. Great signing across the board!
Does no one care that this woman just “bought themselves a Acura” after earning $4812 and a little over 10-k last “munth”? This is incredible!! Hell, I could afford Darvish at that rate!!! Sounds like Darvish my have written this post.
Oh haha he said Brewer fans said they would win 120 (which was never said) somehow now it must be the Cub fans.
You are nothing but a jealous troll. Have fun watching the Cubs this year Mr. Hater.
He has to get a life because he posts the truth that you cannot handle?
Get a life Brewer1!
Oh my lord this deal gets better and better
Prediction, Darvish doesn’t win 40 games as a cub,,,,,too much for 6 years,
2 yrs/42 maybe,,,,,not 6 years,,,,,
Michaelw has a good memory. I said they will win 125 games go undefeated in the playoffs and hit 900 Home runs. However you didn’t take into account I was freaking being sarcastic cause I’m a Cub fan not a yankee fan.
That’s ridiculous. We cub fans know it will only be 115 wins
I’ll take that bet
Hahaha, I LOVE the transparent, bitter and sad trolls. Keep feeding them! It makes this signing that much sweeter. Keep em coming trolls.
You’re stupid never figured even 100 wins but figured like 92 and knew it would still be close but we aren’t done yet Yu gets you not much of an upgrade over Arrieta so I like our chances
What were your REAL facts again?
Not much of an upgrade over Arrieta? That’s not untrue, but it is misleading. The Cubs rotation had Hendricks, Arrieta, Lester, and Q on the roster and healthy for maybe two weeks of the regular season. Replacing Arrieta with Darvish, having Q for the entire year, and getting Hendricks and Lester healthy is actually a huge upgrade over what they trotted out much of last year.
Good signing for the cubs, much needed piece for there staff….somebody get this Michaelw a Zoloft
Hey Pot! Meet Keetle!
All that’s missing is opt-out. But overall contract dollars length and team, I had it identical. I’m proud of myself 😉
Congratulations Cubs fans. You got a hell of a pitcher — on a discount— because of WS.
I am SO proud of you!
I wanna buy you something. Would you like an ice cream little fella?
Salty losing Darvish, and the WS, fella?
Attitudes like this make me not care if you wait another 50 years without a WS, like the Cubs but I won’t generalize your fanbase, like many people mine.
how about a cookie for the little guy
I hated reading your comments.
Like your namesake, you are throwing wide of the mark.
No…not at all. I like what the Dodgers have done with their cap. That luxury tax would have been awful. I like Darvish…outstanding human being. But past the days where he’s worth that kind of money. Still makes Chicago a brute force with starting pitching. Ohh…before I forget. Rocky road or mint chocolate chip?
Bahahaha!!!! And I totally agree with your posts.
Is this the real Steve Sax?
lol
I don’t know. Ask him?
Past the days where’s he’s worth that money? When was he worth it, when he was missing full seasons? If he’s worth it ever it’s now when he’s healthy.
I think the real Steve Sax is still in Springfield Prison.
Stevesax – what flavor ice cream are you handing out?
150 mill is a discount? Enjoy that horrendous contract.
126 mill*
For what it’s worth, Darvish’s was seeking Greinke $200M+ contract, which I think he would’ve gotten closer to, barring that epic WS collapse.
I thought teams were learning. Guess not. Years and one way opt outs will likely cost the Cubbies big time.
In the thread I linked to, sixth post down Justinept made a compelling argument why opt outs benefit the team. It’s worth a read, and really changed my opinion on it.
Not sure how you call the 2017 ws an epic collapse. That was probably one of the most competitive World Series we’ve seen in a while.
epic collapse for Darvish— He had 2 chances,
I think it depreciated his FA contract, to a degree.
It’s not a compelling argument genius. He will only opt out if he can get even more money in free agency. Even if his team is trying to cut costs, without the opt out he would figure to draw some trade interest if he were playing well enough to opt out.
Word
Cubs structure their opt outs differently than most teams.
Hayward sucks, and has one of the worst contracts in all sports, but not all opt outs are created equal. It really was a fascinating read—
Heyward is overpaid so the opt out really has no effect. If he played well and opted out, the Cubs would lose the surplus value from the contract, which hurts them.
The Cubs can print money if they wanted to.
We will thanks!
Np ! 🙂
You realize that the team wins if the player opts out, right? That’s what people miss. Everyone would want Darvish at 2 years / $45 million. It’s the backend that scares teams away. If Darvish performs at a high level, that’s a win for the Cubs. If someone else can pay for his eventual decline, that’s also a win for the Cubs.
Darvish gets not one, but two opt outs in years 2 and 3 along with a full NTC.
I hope that makes it more impressive and less open to ridicule. —Thank you, I appreciate the update.
Ha, and people said teams were learning not to hand out bad contracts like that anymore.
This does little to help the Cubs. They got a pitcher who can’t pitch in October with a history of arm trouble. I don’t see him making more than 20 starts this year and I predict he will have an extended period of time on the dl. The Cubs have a beleaguered infield that will likely have a member sustain an injury that causes them to lose a substantial part of the season, and they have done little to address this depth problem. The Cubs should have jumped on Todd Frazier because he would have provided insurance at both first and third. The 2018 Cubs are a team composed of question marks. Who is the closer- they don’t have one. Will Jon Lester continue to decline? Will Ben Zobrist continue to decline? Will Jason Heywood produce anything at all? Who will be the team leader with John Jay and John Lackey gone? What can the Cubs expect from Kyle Schwarber who has not impressed since his rookie year?
At most this positions them for a Wild Card run as the Brewers are still clearly the better team.
I predict the Yankees will finish third this year and will have two pitchers with arm problems and this year’s ROY will have trouble hitting the Mendoza line.
The 2017 NL MVP will spend a fair amount of time on the DL list.
The Cubs have now gone from the team everyone kinda roots for, to the team everyone wants to see lose.
Sounds like the first half of that could apply to Severino and the Yankees infield.
Wow! You managed to spell Zobrist correctly, but that’s about the only thing you got right in that very long post. Frazier? LOL!
Wow Yankeeaddiction, what an insightful comment! All the question marks the Cubs have! Will Heyward produce? Who will be the team leader now that Jay is gone? Didn’t realize Jay was our leader for one and most of your question marks can be applied to any team. Will a Yankee infielder or outfielder get hurt? Will judge show continued power? Will Didi repeat last years numbers? Will Bird be effective at all? Will your pitching staff hold up? Also, since you love riding the Brewers so hard, maybe there is a Brewer/Yankee post you could be on instead?
Lord Vincent, my dear friend. This very well could happen. You can’t count on anything in sports and injuries can destroy the greatest of teams. Judge has had problems with strike outs and must adjust- many worry about his average in future seasons. Both Tanaka and Gray have injury histories and CC will be 38 years old. You are indeed correct that Stanton has had trouble staying healthy in the past.
While I hope your predictions are in correct, I, unlike most Cubs fans, will admit things can go bad for any team and there is no guarantee players will remain healthy.
Oh Yankeeaddiction actually fears the Cubs!
Not really, they’re been almost as disliked as the Red Sox and Yankees for overblown media coverage.
Yankeeaddiction is talking about Tanaka Severino and Gray all making 20 starts or less but Yankees may hang on for another WC birth
My dear friend. I believe that there is a chance the Yankees will have to deal with an unforeseen injury. To answer your questions as long as he is healthy Judge will hit 40 homeruns. The question/concern is can he continue to improve and hit for a respectable average. When one looks at Didi’s career he has improved every year. Even if he does not improve and regresses I have no issues with a short stop who puts up the numbers he did in 2016. I don’t get the question about Bird- when he is healthy he has always been effective. The question is can he stay healthy.
Now the Yankees have an infield of Bird at first, Didi at short and Sanchez behind the plate. They have Torres and Andujar as well as Torreyes and a number of invitees to spring training. I believe they have the infield depth to withstand an injury. As far as the rotation goes there are questions as to whether or not everyone can stay healthy.
the brewers dont have an infield and are short on starting pitching. the only infielder worth his weight is Shaw. he is limited to third tho. arcacia(shortstop) good defense with no offense. they dont have a second baseman and they are talking about platooning Braun at first. the league has figured out thames, dont throw him a curve. he cant hit fastballs. zobrist can only be better than last year, he is healthy. same with russell. baez starting at second. zo will roam with super rookie Ian Happ who had over 20 hrs in half a season as a rookie without a position. last years team also went to the NLCS. no reason they shouldnt do it again or go farther. plus the best rotation in the N.L.
I do not agree with your assessment of the Cubs. The infield is a strength of this team with plenty of people to fill in. They have their starters and then Zobrist and Happ for spot starts or in case of injury. Brandon Morrow is the closer and the team leaders will be Rizzo and Contreras. You put the brewers are still clearly the better team? Still, as in they were last year? Who won the division last year? The only thing you stated that are valid are what you said about Heyward and Schwarber. Nobody knows how they will fare until they start playing. I like the fact that Schwarber is working out like crazy and eating healthy and hopefully the addition of Chili Davis helps both of them but every team has question marks. The Cubs have very few.
Go back to your Tinker Toys…Come back here when you have anything good to add
“This does little to help the Cubs.” Dumbest post ever! Period.
Which is what Cubs fans wanted for 107 years. Being hated is DELICIOUS.
What funny is even after the Brewers got Yelch and Cain they still were no projected to be the favorite to win the Division, that is before thsi trade. Projected to win 86 – 88 games.
Well were ready let play ball!
The Brewers will have a far superior lineup to the Cubs in 2018. Every projected starter had double digit home runs last year and Yelich will continue to get better. I will be the first to admit guys like Cain and Braun have their best days behind them but both likely have two very productive seasons left in them. A bounce back year by Vogt and Shaw will continue to get better will make them one of the most formidable lineups in the NL.
The Brewers are also not done dealing and I see them adding two arms. I think either Arrieta or Lynn ends up in Milwaukee as a FA and I think they get a starter in a trade from their glut of outfielders.
I don’t think Morrow will succeed in the closer’s role. Zobrist was a shell of what he was last year and I don’t view it as wise to rely on him to continue producing as he had in the past. Jon Lester is going into his age 34 season. Jake Arrieta was a horse for the Cubs and he has been the rock from the start of this recent run of success. He was a core member of the most successful run since Joe Tinker. His loss will change the chemistry of that team. The 2018 Cubs will be much different from the 2017 version that played well above it’s head and over achieved.
Yankee Addition I’m so sick of hearing your BS and all your hate you have for the Cubs. Alls you do is talk BS on every signing they do. Worry about the Yanks. You couldn’t get a pitcher because you couldn’t afford to go over the Lux tax. You got a crazy contract that now restricts you on big signings. You need a 3rd baseman, a second baseball and the Houston Astros are going to tear you apart again, because your rotation is worth;less and your in denial. TYPICAL NYer. ALL TALK N BS. NY fans rather look good and lose than win and look bad. You be happy with hitting 900 home runs but not winning a title. Typical New York fans. A lot of talk. You don’t even talk good baseball, except how good the Yanks are and they will win 125 games and hit 900 home runs. I’m going to call your name on every Yankee loss this year. Trust me. Get over yourself and your ego and take it back to NY where it belongs.
You know nothing about baseball, and always defending the Yanks. All your prospects are the best. Everyone should over pay for Yank players. The Yanks should get the best deal and under play and be cheap wads like typical NYers are. CHEAP WADS!
Instead of talking about the Cubs stick with your Yankees. Will the rotation hold up. Doubtful. How will Old Wino CC pitch. Who is playing 2nd, who is playing 3rd. You should have got Todd Frasier, instead of being a CHEAP WAD typical NYer. You need him better than the Cubs. We have 6 players who can play the infield including 1st base. NY not so much. How will Torres do this year. LOL will see. I predict not much over 265 hows that for a prediction.
No one cares about Lackey, and the Cubs have a lot more dept than you think. You think losing Lackey and JA is a major thing lol.
Both have been replaced. Remember the Cubs won 92 games last year, that is one better than NY BTW. That with injuries and down years for many of the players.
If I were you I worry about the NY infield and rotation and not bank on hitting 900 home runs lol.
Funny how you think the Brewers are a better team. Got news for you hater, the Cubs were still favoured to win the division with the Signing of Cain who is over paid and the Yelch trade. You think that going to put the Brewers over the top. LOL
ALL the Experts in MLB had the Cubs still better that is wo Darvish. As far as post season guess you can say the same about Price and Sale who was rocked in Post season too. Get over yourself, your a typical New Yorker full of himself, talk a lot BS, cheap wad and nothing good to say.
Go save a nickel somewhere and get over it and yourself. Your nothing and a waste of time and space.
Blah blah blah blah
Lord V – I’ll add to that prediction. The predict CC will go back to rehab and MLB will find out Stranton is on PEDs and gets an 80 game suspension.
GET OVER YOURSELF YANKEEADDICTION YOUR A JOKE ON THESE BOARDS!
my dear friend, I thank you for the many kind words. Well now considering the Yankees will likely lose at minimum 57 games, if you call me out after every loss there will be 57 days of the Spring and Summer, where you take a little bit of time out of your day to think of me. If for some reason the Yankees fall apart you might think of me 90 to 100 days. I am honored that I will play such a major role in your life in 2018.
I don’t know if you know this but I am not a member of the Yankees front office. I don’t understand why you think I would take your being critical of their organizational policies as an insult.
Yankeeaddiction, you have alot to talk lmao.. the cubs have alot of questions? They have no depth? They’re known for depth you moron.. Todd fraizer for 1st and 3rd? Worst move ever. Fraizer is trash lmao.. cubs have like 5 players that can play 3rd. Zobrist, Baez and Happ. And zobrist, Contreras and Happ can play first and probably schwarber.. the only question right now for the Cubs is leadoff spot. They could use a more proven center fielder with good obp. That’s it.
Now let’s talk about the Yankees that has holes after holes on their team.. Stanton will be lucky to play 100 games, judge won’t be as good as last year.. GUARANTEED!! Yanks are prob gonna start 2 rookies and they will suck ass, andujar and Torres. Torres will be a giant bust, that’s why the cubs we’re willing to trade him. Yanks have no 1st baseman. Bird? What he do last year? Hit .190 maybe? Their rotation is over rated after severino. Tanaka with a 5 era? That’s something to brag about.. gray is mediocre. Chapman isn’t the same cuz the cubs over used him and fucked him up in 2016. Mark my words.. YANKEES DONT WIN 85 GAMES THIS COMING SEASON!!?
Of course you do. Maddon will limit his innings. He won’t make another 37 starts. Unless they’re 5-6 innings. They just added Yu Darvish. They will throw 4 number number 1 or 2’s in any series.
yankeeaddict is Donald Trump.
The Yankees can’t win titles ? Since when? Seems like 27 leads all of MLB . Definitely more than the Cubs for sure MW!
You should try stand up comedy.
Not sure if trolling or hasn’t watched a Cubs game in four years.
It’s one thing to acknowledge that things can go bad. It’s a whole thing to assume every question mark will be answered in the negative. And then there’s what you did – saying things that are either completely wrong or that are a gross misrepresentation.
1- Jay wasn’t the Cubs leader. Rizzo was.
2- Lackey wasn’t even the leader of the pitching staff. Lester was.
3- Beleaguered infield? They had one guy get hurt over the past three years and they’re suddenly injury prone? Ok…
4- Schwarber hasn’t impressed since his rookie year? Well, it’s only been two years since then and he missed 156 games in one of them. But you’re kinda ignoring that he not only crushed it in the World Series but that also has an .818 OPS in the second half. Or, as we’d say about most players that hadn’t played for the better part of 18 months, after he shook off the rust.
5- They have no closer. They’re still improved in the pen over last year. The Astros just won a WS without one. And the Cubs can still acquire one either before the season or at the deadline.
Good work
Considering it only cost 21 million Cubs still have 12 Million to blow. lol
JA going to cost someone at least 6 years and 21-24 Million on a cheap count.
Lynn and Cobb will be around 4-5 at 18-20
Cubs fans are happy and haters can hate all they want. Just remember Sale was rocked for 6 runs in post season also last year, What has Price done for his 217 Million? I thought he was saving his playoff wins for Boston lol
Guess who gets a gold star today?
Awesome, how much did you make for being so smart.
Nice!
your winning Check is in the mail
I know you said that to make fun, but winning something reminded me of the contest.
No contest this year :/ 🙁
The amount of people downvoting you because you showed you were in fact right is hilarious. Let’s downvote people for being right because you hate the outcome but not hold people who say stupid crap accountable. Makes perfect sense.
Thank you, I really appreciate that.
Would they rather “wow”? I can’t tell you how many times, I’ve seen that as a first post 🙂
Not about being right…it’s about jumping around like an undisciplined child after winning nothing at all. Now, if he predicted an earthquake and warned an elementary school to vacate the building before the earthquake and its subsequent collapse…then by all means, brag away!
Or you can just ignore his post like an adult.
Xabial deserves credit has he PROVED it. Not like the clowns who always come on here and claim to have “called it”
Oh so xabial was having fun so you critize him? Oh he has to have won an award you say? The award is being correct.
Are you 11 little stevie? You play for prizes and trophies and mommy says good boy and here is a little ice cream cone for little Stevie …
so are you a child then for not being able to ignore the other guys post?
Do you feel left out? Would you also, like an ice cream? Seems like you’ve had a rough day. How about we get you some sprinkles on your ice cream! That’ll cheer ya up!
In his defense (yes Im defending my most vocal critic in this thread) I was the 1st post in major blockbuster signing, with mlbtr audience starving for one. This thread got 424 comments in 2 hours.
When you make a first comment in a thread that’ll probably get 600+ comments, you will get a lot of exposure— and expose yourself to much scrutiny.
I have no regrets, as I will probably never get a FA contract this correct again, from dollars, years, opt out, team and I proved it with link. I guess.. only regret is the exclamation points. It really wasn’t meant to brag… I was happy.
xabial, do you come on this sight often? all people do is critique peoples comments for the most part. your comment was no different. you dont need to explain yourself or analyze the situation. it is what it is
What are you, 12? Relax. Happy you are happy.
People critique yes, but they don’t usually attack other people’s characters. It’s usually a highly civilized baseball conversation even if things get heated.
I find quality comments, most upvoted be quite high.
I was defending my integrity, “undisciplined child” because I want people to know why, I posted it, for SteveSax 7+ Upvotes (those of you, who don’t use app)
Yes there are tolls on the internet who like to upvote insulting comments, but if there really is one person who genuinely believes what he SteveSax said, and I changed their mind, it would be worth it.
Wow, like people are trying to say, grow up little fella! The guy made a prediction and it came true. Looks like you love people reading what you think is funny stuff…
Troll somewhere else. Your posts are idiotic.
So you think you were the only one who “predicted” this signing or what? If that was the case, then hers your sign!
Ehh…pretty round numbers..If you would’ve guessed the actual guaranteed amount, $126 mil, then I’d be a little more impressed…lol
Alot of people had Darvish pegged at 5-6 years and $125-$150 mil though, just saying, not to burst your little bubble..
Congrats on the Cubs getting YuDar also…I’ll join the guessing game, and guess that’s your favorite team..??
I loved him at 5/125, 6/126 is fantastic for the top FA starter available. If he hits his incentives and bumps it up to 150 that means he’s earning it. A win/win. That AAV keeps the Cubs away from the luxury tax AGAIN and gives them flexibility moving forward. Way to wait it out and be patient Theo/Jed! Love this deal!!!!
He has to win multiple cy Young’s for the 150. I’ll go out on a limb and say that won’t happen
you get a wet willie for a prize
“My prediction came true.”
Doesn’t appear to be an exact match, xabial. The base contract appears to be for $120M with incentives which could make it worth the full $150M. But you estimated the approximate terms rather well. Was this based on something in particular, some calculations you did or just a hunch?
Also, when patting oneself on the back it’s best to use restraint. Posting the link to your before the fact prediction doesn’t need any gilding.
You are late to the party. Initially it was reported as a 6/150 deal.
I was based on Mlbtr’s prediction, which I felt was a tad generous. (Six years $160MM) and that was before this slow off-season began to take shape.
The opt out prediction was due to:
1) The market repercussions of his WS outings — Darvish was clutch up to that point,—He was so close.
2) Their general increasing popularity in the game (whether you hate to admit it, or not)
3) Cubs have a history of giving them (gave Heyward 2, more than most, even if 2nd opt out was conditional on Heyward getting 550PA in 2019, I’ve never heard of a team giving a player, 2 player opt outs — have you?)
4) They were one of the hottest teams linked to Darvish, early in the offseason, and throughout.
yes, initially it was reported to be 6 year $150M deal
So like ok, want a cookie??!!
Whether or not you agree with majorflaw, I like that he goes into depth, in his responses, so I try to do the same, with his comments questions directed at me.
Only 24 mill off lol
Omfg baseball hot stove heating up
Poor move by the Cubs. This will be a strain on their budget. How many very good years are we expecting out of Yu?
2. You want him like every other player who gets an opt out to opt out. Opt outs are actually great for teams.
Ah opt outs are only good if the free agent doesn’t have a qualifying offer. I’d give darvish one, only because I wouldn’t be losing a draft pick for potentially 1-2 years of a player
Opt outs are not good for the team! It just favors the player!
In the thread I linked to, eighth post down, justinept wrote a brilliant piece why opt outs benefit the team. Since I know you didn’t read it (Not because didn’t want to, but because my comment directing other people, who thought the same thing about opt outs, to that post, probably got lost in the 700+ responses, most commented article here, of all time)
This is for many people who think: opt-outs are “not good for the team!” and “just favors the player!” …. Writing this exceptional, deserves to be shared to a wider viewing audience. (Original Source link in first post here, I made my “correct” prediction.) Click that link, Count down, from top, 8th post down, by justinept. Thanks again for sharing this! I don’t know if you’re going to write it again here and I didn’t want to take that risk of this fascinating piece, fading away, in that other thread. It changed my entire opinion on player opt outs, being so “one sided”
“People look at opt-outs wrong.
They say that the player will opt out if the contract is undervalued, or he’ll stay if the contract is overvalued. And that both situations hurt the team. While those two statements are true, they fail to take a number of things into account.
First, opt-outs provide value to the player. People always seem to miss this obvious point.
Since we’re talking about the Cubs, let’s use Jason Heyward as an example moving forward. He signed with the Cubs for 8 years / $184 million with two opt outs. He turned down 8 years / $200 million with no opt out language from the Nationals. You can deduce from this that the Cubs saved $16 million over 8 years in actual money by offering the opt outs. That isn’t insignificant.
Smart teams understand this value and use it as leverage to make up the monetary difference from other offers. Desperate teams use it as leverage to make up other issues a player might have with signing with their team (eg. poor team play, poor location, etc.)
The Cubs play in a major market. They have an historic stadium that’ was recently renovated. They have a top-tier manager. They’ve made three straight NLCS appearances. And they won a World Series 14 months ago. When a team is in the position the Cubs are in (Dodgers, Yankees, BoSox, and a few others are in similar spots), and they offer an opt-out clause, it’s always to make up monetary differences from other offers because the other selling points are off the charts. So if the Cubs offer Darvish an opt-out, it’s because he took a few less dollars to sign.
Second – people ignore the fact that opt-outs are done one of two ways from a team’s POV.
1) The team front loads the contract, which protects them against a bigger cap hit if the player doesn’t opt out
2) They back load the contract, daring the player to opt out of the bigger money portion of the deal.
Guess which one smart teams do? They front load the contract, protecting themselves against regression. That way, if the player doesn’t utilize the opt-out due to it being an over-market deal, it’s still a smaller hit than they’d have taken if they gave him a LT deal w/ yearly salaries in line with the actual AAV.
Let’s look at Heyward again,
His money was front-loaded with 2017 and 2018 representing his biggest pay days ($28 mil per year). That leaves about $106 million over 5 years remaining on the deal. Will he opt-out? Probably not. I mean, the guy has barely hit his weight as a Cubs (.243 average vs a listed weight of 240 points.) But still, w/o the opt-out, the Cubs are likely paying Heyward $125 million over the final 5 years. With the opt-outs, they’re paying him $19 million less.
If the Cubs were to offer Darvish an opt-out, they’dd likely front load that contract as well, paying him significantly more money in 2019 and 2020 ahead of Bryant and Russell’s free agency year. If Darvish outperforms the contract and opts-out, it provides more money to sign Bryant and Russell. If Darvish underperforms and doesn’t opt out, then you’re at least paying him less than you would’ve had you not offered the opt out clause.
Seriously – unless a team is desperate and does something stupid, then these things do work out for the team.”
Thanks for sharing such a quality comment!
And there is not even the slightest chance that Heyward opts out. Opt out doesn’t help the Cubs there. If Darvish pitches well and opts out it will hurt them because they lose a player who they had signed for below market value.
3.5
This won’t do a anything to their budget. The owners father is the founder of etrade. They have a ton of money to spend if they want. They could lock up Bryant rizzo,Baez and sign Harper for 200 mil each if they wanted too. I don’t think they will. Harper won’t sign for less than 300 mil. Bryants extension would start at 250 mil. Baez will not gset more than 90mil on his nezt deal with the cubs. Rizzo will get upwards of 150mil.
I see no indication that they can spend all that on all those players. And no doubt this hinders their capacity to sign all those guys. How could it not? It’s $25mil/year…
It doesn’t put a dent in their budget. They could easily sign Harper and extend Bryant for the same amount if they choose too. That would require heyward opting out and trading one or more of Schwarber, Almora and maybe one other. As bad as Schwarber gets hosed for his “horrible D” I’d rather have him over Harper.
Its $21m a year. Sorry you are a Dodger fan and lost Darvish to the Cubs for just $21m per year but you will have to deal with it
*$21mill/year.
One Fan: nice assumption re my team, but I’m an O’s fan. I stand by my comments above.
It’s $21M base plus performance bonuses that could raise it to $25M.
BTW, I am a Dodger fan who isn’t at all sorry Darvish was “lost” to the Cubs. Trust me, we can deal with it. His coming back here, that would be have been another issue.
Agreed. Also, one thing most people overlook is that teams can nudge (and subtly threaten) players to opt out.
An opt out doesn’t mean the player has all the control. I mean, if a team didn’t want me, and they tell me my playing time will be cut in half (or more), I would opt out.
There’s a lot of psychology involved.
Those guys you all mentioned are only making league minimum. The best case scenario is they sign Harper go over the tax next year, and Zobrist goes off the books after next year. There’s some flexibility still there but not a lot. If and that’s a big if they sign Harper next year that’s probably their only move. And honestly they won’t need to make anymore.
No you wouldn’t
A strain on the budget it is not
Talk like Yoda you must
Let’s go!!!!!!
FINALLY
Nice
Poor move. It’s an overspend ona pitcher who’s actually not that great—and certainly not consistently so.
Whether he’s great or simply just a well above average is splitting hairs. He’s still a top 20 starting pitcher in the game
No need to split hairs at all. It’s an overspend on, as you say, a top 20 pitcher.
I would suggest he isn’t. He taxes bull pens, his fastball is straight, and when he loses command of his breaking pitches he is very hittable. When he gets on a roll he is very effective. A #3 guy at this stage of his career. And when the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, or on the road in Milwaukee or GAB look out. As a Cards’ fan I am happy with this deal. With all the Cubs’ salary issues in years to come this deal binds their hands nicely.
Yes it does. And, as you added, the guys been less than impressive of late. I’d also add that whether he’s too 20 right now is irrelevant; what will he be over the life of his contract? This I think is where the deal looks quite awful actually.
Oh domitrilnLA sorry to split hairs its only $21m per year a huge underpay and your dodgers lost out and you are pissed off
My goodness you have no clue. Chicago as a small market team in your rates is hilarious. Enjoy fighting Pittsburgh for 4th place for the next decade.
Well said spudchukar
People complained about the Zobrist deal, saying he would be too old at the end of the contract. Well I am OK with 3 down years since he was MVP of the 2016 WS.
The Cubs have an open window to win now. What’s wrong with spending the money now to win? Hey if Yu helps the Cubs win in the next few years and is not worth the contract in the last few years, I am OK with that. True, signing him guarantees nothing. But it at least gives the Cubs a better chance to win now, while their window is open.
Sweet
Finally
WHOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Good signing. Like it
terrible contract. be lucky to get 3 years out of him. lot of money tied up for A player with arm problems and on the down side.
That’s not terrible or even bad. That’s about the right price for a pitcher who’s not quite an ace, but he’s still very good. If he were scherzer or price, he’d get payed a lot more money.
Haha, don’t feed the sad lil trolls. Coach Him is either ignorant, sad or both. I loved him at 5/125. To get him at 6/126 is amazing! That AAV will keep the Cubs below the luxury tax yet again. Theo brilliantly waited out the market and took advantage of the Dodgers/Yankees inability to spend this winter. If he hits all his incentives and maxes the contract out at 150… EVEN better. Still a good AAV for the Cubs AND that means he’s performing well. Great get, the top starter available!
Well said. Looks like a lot of green on this board…
Yeah, the best part is seeing the same usernames that wanted their team to sign Yu now acting like they are glad they didn’t. Transparent to say the least. The fact that Theo didn’t panic and got him for WELL below his projected contract back in November was genius!
Completely agree. The incentivized contract is even better. A (potential) extra $25 million will keep this kid hungry for every single year. The move (and the way the contract is written) is brilliant.
Yeeeesssss!!!
Now over pay for Jake. And our staff will be complete!!
There’s no room for him
Don’t think there ever truly was room for Jake. Plan B after Darvish was probably Cobb. Plan C…who knows. Maybe a Lackey reunion (eek)? Or roll with Monty at SP5, add some decent SP depth, and consider a trade later if it doesn’t work out. Jake might’ve interested the Cubs on a short-term deal (1-2 yrs, 3 at most), but that (or a “hometown discount”) was never happening. This wasn’t a Dexter Fowler situation.
oh god no
Jake arieta to the phils please
No way Andy MacPhail would agree to more than a 3 year deal and there’s no way Scott Boras agrees to that.
No God Please No
Maybe on a one year deal with a high aav…come March 29th.
maybe Jake at 4/100 mil now? I really can’t see him getting Darvish money, but then again maybe a team like MIL or MIN goes the extra 5th year after missing out on Yu?
Twins won’t go to five on Arrietta.
Haven’t seen an actual report on their offer to Darvish but I’d be surprised if that was a straight 5 year offer. I haven’t heard any concrete interest from the Twins on him, only speculation since they are looking at top tier pitching. It’s possible the Brewers consider him as an option but not MN unless he falls to reasonable terms as in a short deal.
Your 4/100 for Arrieta is more annually than the guarantee Darvish got from the Cubs. He’ll get over $20M per when he signs, the only real question is how much more, and the number of years.
staff is complete now …5 solid starters plus Montgomery ….bullpen has 6 solid relievers
Yup
Lester, Darvish, Hendricks, Quintana, Chatwood
Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Montgomery, Duensing, Wilson.
Only question mark is the 8th pen guy (25th man) and there’s some relatively good options there
Maples may make a good run for that #8 reliever.
bad take
Their rotation is good to go. They need a Greg Holland. Morrow won’t be the closer the whole year. He could be the 8th inning guy. While CJ can be the 7th inning guy.
Bye bye Jake
Wow
Maybe this Is the domino that needed to fall!!
The floodgates just bursted
Wow
Yu! Yu got what I neeee-eeeed!
Oh baby Yuuuuu
Yuuuuuu say he’s just a friend
Awesome!
Sort of expected. Waiting on more details on thr contract.
*Go Cubs Go starts playing*
Hooray! News m!
good luck holding onto their core for another couple years. definitely won’t be in on next year’s free agent class. no money left
They’re loaded with cash. If it makes sense, there’s no reason they won’t go over the luxury tax
And the Brewers fans saltiness begins
of course they can go over luxury tax. they are in a big market that can afford it. I’m proud of the Brewers for having one of the top GMs in baseball. no way Epstein could build a winner without a blank check book. down side of no salary cap. small market teams can realistically compete for a year or two in a row then rebuild. unless they can hit on every draft pick
No way Epstein could build a winner without a blank checkbook? Maybe you didn’t realize that our core is built up of very young, and cost effective players. Epstein opens the checkbook on occasion but for you to say he can’t build a winner without a blank checkbook sounds flat out stupid or maybe it’s envy that you cheer for a team that uses a piggy bank in comparison to a checking account
The familiar Brewers fan lament. We build better because we’re smaller. Hilarious.
I have a lot of faith in Stearns. drastically better than Melvin was. as long as Stearns doesn’t give out multiple 5-6 year contracts over $150 million they can compete.
Brewers wont win until they get a new owner. wont spend money. only 1 season in the last 20 under 2 million in attendance. where is the money? they are the mets of the midwest.
The Brewers couldn’t build a winner without a steroid-guzzling douche nozzle in LF.
Another brewer fan showing his ignorance. Hey genius what do you think Theo did to win the world series in 2016? You think he had a blank check. Check out the Cubs payroll then. He did it by rebuilding.
Exactly what your team is now attempting to replicate. Boy what an ignorant comment you made
Appbrewers … and Theo hit on ever draft pick! Lets see if you can match him
Theo built a winner with MINIMAL $$$. Dude, you’re absolutely clueless. Lol.
Not even close buddy, this is chicago not Green Bay South
Haha, exactly. The trolling is sad and quite transparent. The Cubs have not hit the luxury tax yet, meaning they can blow past it NEXT winter and not be a repeat offender. Theo has already stated that’s the plan. He took advantage of the Dodgers and Yanks being repeat offenders and not being able to spend this winter. He also knew that Yu had no desire to go to Milwaukee or Minny. Theo called his bluff and got him at a ridiculous AAV. I liked Yu a lot at 5/125 but I LOVE him at 6/126… WOW!
LOL at thinking 6/126 is a great contract. Let’s talk in two years when he’s struggling to even fit into the bullpen for 21 million/yr!
I agree! At the AAV they got him at, the extra year is irrelevant.
Brewcrew54 – Sounds good man. We can talk about Lorenzo Cain’s contract in 2 years too.
Cain’s WAR will be much higher than Darvish’s in two years, you can count on that. Positional players performance outlast pitchers, history shows that. FYI
Hahaha, I LOVE IT. BrewCrew54 is the SAME clown that was pining for Stearns to get him signed. NOW, it’s a bad signing for the Cubs?!?!? Hahaha, at a mere 21 mil AAV? Way less than those that ACTUALLY get paid for their opinion projected. YES! Your transparent attempt to troll to hide your disappointment is loud and clear! Thank you, you’re making a great day even sweeter.
Haha. If he contributes to a couple WS in the next 3 years, that’s what it’s all about. People criticized Zobrist signing but he ended up 2016 WS MVP. It’s usually the fans of the teams that lose out on a signing that criticize the contract.
You think Cain’s WAR will be higher than darvish???? Dude your just being a hater at this point. I’d take that bet 100 times out of 100.
I see you do the accounting for the Cubs! Interesting they let you come on MLB trade rumors to announce that they have no money for next offseason. A year that will include huge merchandise revenue, a seasons worth of sellout crowds, and likely another playoff run. Thank you for leaking that though so soon…
Don’t feed the sad trolls. The Cubs have PLENTY of money. As Theo said, they plan to blow past the luxury tax next winter. To minimize penalties, they don’t want to be a repeat offender, which is why the Yanks and Dodgers couldn’t get in on Yu. Theo played the market perfectly! A HUGE get!!!
Add to that an upcoming TV contract…
Don’t need to be in on next year’s free agent class. New TV deal kicking in in a few years so they should be ok.
The new tv contract is one reason why the Cubs should be in on next years free agent class. The players who will be available next offseason are not the type of players you get the chance to sign year in and year out
You’re right, the best part about this signing is it helps to limit their ability to sign players next offseason and beyond. Good signing
No needs left
Well, at some point it would be nice to have a true lead off hitter. I guess they will have Almora lead off this season, not exactly what you are looking for in that spot. They have a great chance of landing Harper next year, which will be even more interesting because Almora or Heyward would not play if that happens
Haha. Brewers fans acting like the Cubs are small market is so cute.
They’ll probably have their own Cable station in a couple of years. #Printingmoney.
Looks like a major victory for the players. Holding out did pay off.
6 years $126 million is what he’s getting
I’m sure he thought he’d get a lot more
He got 6/126 with bonuses that an make it 150 and 2 opt outs and an NTC.
That’s an insane AAV for Darvish. I liked him a lot at 5/125, but I LOVE him at 6/126. Even if he dominates, hits ALL his incentives, he’ll still be below market value at 6/150. Theo played this market perfectly.
What market did you have him in? What he got looks about right to me. He’s a solid pitcher with a few flaws (injury prone, failed in WS). If anything, I’m surprised he got 6 years.
Well, those that actually get paid for their opinion had him at 6/160 min, before a bidding war. To get him at a 21 AAV is ridiculous. If he hits ALL his escalators, which means he’s pitching well, he’s STILL a good 10 mil below his projected contract. Great move by Theo being patient and not panicking. The Cubs will once again avoid the luxury tax which will allow them to go well over it NEXT winter with minimal penalties. Something Theo already made clear that he will do. Great get. I liked him a lot at 5/125, I LOVE him at 6/126!!!
If he does that he opts out and they have to either greatly up his pay or lose him
smh. There’s always a team that comes in and gives Boras what he wants. Always.
Boras isn’t Yu’s agent
But didn’t Boras’s initial demands come on closer to $30 million/year? He got the years he wanted, but not the dollars.
He’s not represented by Boras
Is Boras negotiating for other people’s clients this offseason?
No but Boras can control the entire free agent market with his mind. Or is that his mouth?
Smh. There’s always a commenter who thinks every big name free agent is repped by Scott Boras. Always.
Christ almighty. In an off-season where every article mentions that Boras has all the big names and is holding up the off-season, i forgot that one name wasn’t represented by Boras. How will I ever live with myself?
By hopefully fact checking before you say stupid crap on the internet so you don’t look like a buffoon
Next time just do some basic research before posting instead of getting salty with people calling out your inaccuracies.
So many crusty folks on here. Comments need to be 100% on point or you get roasted. Kinda like talking to my wife.
Lighten up Francis!
I was just having a laugh, bud. It’s all in good fun. This is a baseball rumors website.
Live with yourself by not posting when you do not know crap. You just talk out of your rear end
How do you live with yourself as is with your posts that show you know nothing about what you talk about. You just talk out of your ass.
Sully51 is so stupid he does not even know Darvish is not a Boras client.
Hey Sully51 hahhaha laughing right AT YU! Get it Yu
When’s the first I think we can re-sign Arrieta too! Lol
Lol….overpay
I guess they really DIDN’T want Jake.
Enjoy that contract in years 5 and 6….
Any of those years are dicey, given Yu’s history and the health stats on pitchers in general. This contract is the type of recklessness that a rich team can make.
We will.
Osfandan the Cubs fans will enjoy years 5 and 6 while competing for world championships
Finally the dominos can start to fall. Where will Carl Pavano sign?
I don’t know why that reference kicks ass, but it totally does.
I knew it! So glad someone finally blinked.
This is good. If the Brewers don’t have the discipline to enter a much needed rebuild the Cubs can be their discipline
just hope Brewers don’t sign any of the other free agent pitchers. none of them are worth the money and neither was darvish.
I hope they over pay for Arietta. That would be a double win for the Cubs.
How about missing the playoffs because your rotation wasn’t good enough? How much is that worth?
That’s a strange hope. You hope they don’t compete with the Cubs and Cards?
Any of the three left can help a ballclub get to the next level. Brewers need to do this. If they can do better by trade, so be it, but it won’t be easy to get playoff-level guys like Arietta – unless Crew lucks out and can swing a trade for Archer.
Oh AppBrewers you are so burned. So pisses off. Yu is not worth $21m per year. Haha. Your team offered more then that and got shot down big time!
It has not stated in any articles that YU was offered more money by any other teams!
it is that same thinking that will keep the brewers from winning. along with a bad owner. brewers are the mets of the midwest.
Huh? Brewers are already coming out of their rebuild.
Brewers better check that pitiful rotation before claiming to be out of a rebuild….
Huh?
???
Much needed rebuild?? Wtf do you think they’ve been doing? Obvious troll is obvious
There’s a pretty big difference between rebuilding and just losing a lot.
Finally ! Who’s next!?!?!
I will lol if Yu Darvish dominates in the playoffs against the dodgers.
Finally.
Here we go!! 6/150…that’s a very nice deal for Darvish.
Darvish
Quintana
Hendricks
Lester
Chatwood
That’s a very good 1-4 and Chatwood.
Bet Chatwood is better than Lester this year. Think Lester’s close to done.
I think everyone talked up Chatwood too much this year. I bet he won’t do that great this year.
Agreed! Chatwood will be a reliever by the end of the year. He’s no starter
And Milwaukee is counting on Jimmy Nelson. See Andrew Luck, among others, for how illogical that is.
Rivera its 6/126 not 6/150
depends on the escalators.
Chatwood actually has the best stuff out of all these pitchers if you knew anything. In my opinion, Chatwood is the ace by the end of the season
What a bummer
LETSS GOOOOOO!!!! BOOM BABY
6 years might be 2 two many but they needed a starter. I think it’s a good deal for years 1-4 for sure
True, less than I thought he’d get annually though.
Took long enough.
Im going to vomit
Ugh! 6 years for Lester was one thing but I don’t like Darvish for more than 4
he’ll be great in the regular season for the Cubs.
Key word is regular season
exactly.
Oh haha I get it. Regular season because he tipped his pitches in the world series (while otherwise pitching fantastic in the post season) oh soo funny. Well we shall see next year won’t we. Of course the Brewers will be sitting October out again. Oh hahaha
Hahaha. Get there. Once. Then claim the rebuild is off and running. Fact is, Milwaukee still remains nothing more than average. Let that sink in for a minute.
A nothing more than average team with no cy young award winners or big payroll gave your team a run the entire last season, and you still got blown out by a Dodgers team Houston was able to figure out. Let that sink in.
The owners suck at colluding. That’s way more years than I thought he’d get. If they’re lucky the first 3 years will be good. If they’re unlucky he goes the way of Zimmermann.
A lot less annually than I thought he’d get though.
It’s possible he had an offer of 4 years over $100 million and took the lower AAV to get the extra years that he probably won’t be pitching.
Think we are going to find out Cubs offer was not the biggest.
Still 100 FA on the market. Read that 1 in 8 players that were on end of season rosters are still unsigned. That is what players are ticked about, not whether Darvish gets his money.
Probably because they aren’t colluding.
Its hard to suck at collusion when no one is colluding genius
he was obviously making fun at people that were screaming collusion.
BOOM!
“It’s because they didn’t hold anything back.”
The flood gates have opened. This is about to be a weekend to remember with SP training starting Monday
Isnt this exactly what mlbtr had in their offseason predictions
Wow! I know Lester is getting older and isn’t the number 1 he once was but he’s still good and not this rotation got a lot better. Darvish had a up and down season and blew the World Series for the Dodgers (including terrible decisions by our manager) but over all this guy is a great addition to that rotation and makes that team a lot better. As a Dodgers fan I really hate this but as a fan of Baseball I can be mad that a team just got better so congrats to you Cubs fans and congrats to Darvish! He deserves this deal, he’s a good dude and he’s has a good career so far.
Thanks for the positivity in the comments (doesn’t always happen after a big signing or trade)
Rumors were that the first team to give him a sixth year would sign him. The last couple years he might not be worth the AAV but overall good signing and I’m super excited to watch the Cubs and Dodgers try outmuscle each other all summer!
I’m just a huge Baseball fan and I love watching good ball. Going to be a very good year. I can’t wait to see my Dodgers and your Cubs battle this year. Should be really good ball. Hope we get to face off in the playoffs again.
Love seeing the Cubs waste money on a older pitcher. LOVE IT
Me too, 32 isn’t old, and his annual salary is very affordable.
He is 31
The dodgers take a loss with this and not to mention their bullpen isn’t in great shape either. Arazona is pleased with this signing as far as the NL west goes
Don’t forget morrow. Him and darvish dominated the cubs in the nlcs
Who’s the #2,3,4 &5 starter after Kershaw. Ouch!
Older pitcher? He is only 31 troll
Most on this site would call that “the wrong side of 30.”
Finally! Cobb and Lynn are on the clock
Cobb could surprise some people this year.
With his contract amount, it’s showing that teams are standing on not handing out ridiculous contracts. Even though his contract is for over 6 years, it won’t hurt them when he starts to decline, because 21 million will be a bargain 6 years from now
Unmm no it’s not. Have you not been paying attention? This move is almost 100% likely to be a problem in the future but the Cubs are definitely in win now mode so it’s worth the risk
Oh Chris you are such a troll! 100% to be a problem huh? Wow thats a lot. You know that how? You do not you just hope it is since you are so irate and jealous of the Cubs who are a cash cow and have their own TV network in a few years for a few billion more in dough. So lets see how that 100% idea works out for you troll.
I’m a Yankees fan. Why would I ever be jealous of the Cubs lol?
Like I’ve said, I think the move is a good risk for the Cubs. But unless Darvish is an anomaly, it’s gonna be hard for him to be of value at the end of his contract. But if you’re asking me if I’d take almost $60 million in dead money for another World Series championship, I would do it. Especially given the fact that the Cubs are still in a good position in the immediate future with many of their young position players. And probably keeps him away from a division rival in the Brewers
A bargain? Based on what? The massive contracts given out to mediocre players this offseason?
Jake Arrieta to brewers for 4 year 75 million make it happen Stearns
Arrietta isn’t taking that contract, bid higher.
I’m sure Boras wanted 7 years for Arrieta but he’ll argue 6 years on Darvish sets the market.
Arrieta will get 4
yr at &100 mil Phillies
i think so too, hawaiiphil
No way! He’s a Midwest guy!
Hahaha. Nobody takes that deal to play in Milwaukee. Nobody.
yep loyal fanbase with potent offense. who wouldn’t want that to pitch with.
but definitely hope Brewers don’t give a bad contract to any of those guys. much rather they make a trade.
Arrieta just came from the Cubs who have as loyal of a fanbase as you can get and a very potent offense. Exactly how is Milwaukees fan base and offense going to be a selling point for Arrieta to go to them for 4 years and 75 mil?
Because your park is a joke. Who would ever want to pitch there?
Please, NO Arrieta – Let’s enjoy at least one season with the Matt Garza salary-sucking, under-performing, skills-diminishing roster spot open…
4/84 with bonuses that can take it to 100 and an opt out after 2 years might get it done.
5/160 at the least. Money they don’t have.
only way arietta goes to milwaukee is if it is the only offer. who wants to live 6 months of the year in milwaukee? would rather play for marlins now in south beach than milwaukee. yelich may be kicking himself. be careful what you wish for. i live in wisconsin and I wont spend more than 1 day in Milwaukee. there is a joke: if you are in miller park after october 1st, you could get arrested for tresspassing.
Because living in Chicago is SO much better. There’s a reason why 3/4 of Chicago’s population vacation in Wisconsin every year.
im from chicago and own a summer home in wisconsin. people are moving out of illinois and chicago. amazing city but cubs fans yappin just ignore.
Yelich will get traded mid season 2019. Cain will be flipped within 3 years and they will finally trade Aaron Braun(take a close look at side by side of Braun and Rodgers. They look like twins.
Oh brewer fans are so cute. Now you are getting Jake for $17m huh
Excited to read all the salty fans from other teams who wanted him start trashing him and pretending that the Cubs don’t have the money to deal with any downside in the future.
So he will at least get 21 mill per year for six years. Not a terrible AAV but the one thing that’s worrisome is that he has pitched 150+ innings only once from 2014 forward. Hopefully he doesn’t have durability issues
Now let the dominoes finally fall !!!!!
They better win now. This is an albatross contract in 3 to 4 years.
LOL, did you think the point of this contract was to win in year 4?
Dar Yu believe Dar Cubs will vish this deal never happened?
Guess that Brewers World Series is on hold. Hahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
that’s weird. didn’t realize the season started and ended already. can be literally one or two injuries to derail any team.
Have to admit that the Cubs have some serious depth though. I mean Zobrist and Ian Happ are going to be starting the season on the bench, and Montgomery is always ready to take the role of a starter
Appbrewer your team has no pitching. Zero you need to sign the top 3 remaining starters to compete but your team is too cheap
Less than zero pitching…and that’s before they realize that not only isn’t Nelson going to any good this year, he’s NEVER likely to recover from labral surgery at his age. And no, he’s not young for purposes of that brutal surgery.
#Collusion
Don’t even care who the team was I’m just glad that dragged out crap is done
Here’s what’s going to happen: All the rest of the Top 50 free agents are going to be signed in the next ten days……except for Boras clients.
You have to admit, MLBTR readers and commenters would have a lot of fun with that.
Mike that would be fun
I will say this much. The cubs swapping darvish with Jake doesn’t really improve them all at from last season but they aren’t weaker either (unless the loss of Davis truly harms them). If anything it’s status quo which is good for the defending no central champs
Jake sucked for the first 3 months last year. I don’t think Yu will. They have a full year of Quintana. So, of course they are better.
I also see Darvish & Arietta as more similar than different. Yu’s peripherals are a bit better, but Jake’s durability & big game mentality balances that out. I would argue that Chatwood for Lackey looks likely to be an improvement. Chatwood is still an unknown factor, though. I think if Lester & Hendricks stay healthy, they’ll have a better year than last. Overall, I think the rotation is in better shape this year.
Well Yankee I think Chatwood and Darvish will be better then Arrieta and Lackey but we shall see.
You forget that the offense isn’t near it’s prime yet, still a very young but experienced offense who’s hungry again.
This was far less than they wanted so I’m excited this should set the trend for the other agents wanting the moon and back. Should start to see a lot more signings in the next week
good signing for cubs but im sure we’ll be discussing the albatross of a contract come 2020 season and beyond (6 yrs? ouch! but good for Yu)
You people acting like the Cubs are small market on a shoestring budget makes a Cubs fan’s offseason,
It is pretty funny.
Flood gates won’t open till a Boras client signs. Sorry fellas but this will be like when Cain signed.
In a week the only top 20 free agents unsigned will all be Boras clients. And he’ll feel like he has the owners where he wants them. They’ll have to meet his demands then.
Great move by theo and co. No qo stipulations, a great pitcher and the splash they needed. While the back end might hurt a bit, it’s not a completely crippling amount.
Him going to the Cubs has been obvious since December so this really isn’t surprising.
Wish it was the Twins instead though.
The “low” average annual salary of $21 million per season seems like a win for the Cubs but I’d have to be really nervous about the back end of that deal. Paying a 35-38 year old $20+ million is gonna be tough to swallow regardless of ability to pay it. But I guess for another WS ring in the next three years while all the Cubs position players are still cheap is worth the risk
The Cubs window to win is now while Bryant, Russell, Rizzoa,Hendricks, Baez, Contreras, etc are affordable.
If they win another ring, no one will care about the last 2 years.
But paying a TOR starter $21 million to start the deal is a steal. It is not about any single year, its about the value provided over the full length of the deal. If he puts up a 3.5 WAR in 2018 that is worth nearly $30 million.
outinleftfield, for which sports agency do you work?
6 years is to long the cubs will regret this contract in the last 2 years
All contracts are like that for pitchers. The window to win is now.
The cubs aren’t focusing on years 5 and 6 when it comes to him
Sort of like Year 2 with Cain….
Doubtful.
The Cubs might regret it in the last 2 years. But the Brewers are going to regret it in the first 2 years.
Oh Brewer214 you just want it to be true. You were happy when your team offered the samw amount over 5 years and got REJECTED. Cubs pay the same and get basically a free year. You would be singing a different tune had the Brewers signed him
There’s replacements coming in the farm. Most of Cubs top prospects are pitchers.
Now get Greg Holland and watch the Brewers and Cardinals fade into the rearview mirror by the All Star break
Deal includes Full NTC and 2 opt outs in years 2 and 3.
Yes! Potentially two more wins for the Astros in next year’s World Series!
Seriously though, I think the cubs overpaid but got a really good pitcher. Should be some really fun baseball on the north side.
Cubs/Astros WS would be a dream for me.
I still want that Astros rematch. We got unfinished business buddy lol
Welcome the rematch. You guys added Stanton, we added Cole, Smith, Rondon. Both teams better. But you got the RedSox to contend with, and the Angels are better but not as good as us.
You will hold off Anaheim. The Yankees have a whole year of gay and Montgomery in the rotation and bird as well. Plus Tanaka fixed his first half problems and as such I like our chances to win the al east but it’s baseball so I’m not taking anything to the bank lol
*gray
I’d welcome any matchup with the Astros if you’re running Rondon out there in the 7th or later.
Pirates should trade Harrison/ Nova and Cerveli . They will have a minor league team against Cubs and Brewers. Fans are going to come anyway
I think most expected Darvish to sign with the Cubs and I suspect eventually they will report that the Cubs were not the highest bidder.
And let the dominoes begin to fall!
Arietta signs a 3-4 year deal with the cards or brew crew next and then the loser of that gets Cobb me thinks
Jake will insist on 5 years now.
You are correct but it doesn’t mean he won’t cave in either
The cubs are fools for signing this guy ! Can’t wait till the angels face him and pound him to the next universe lol.!!!
They rarely play the cubs though. As a matter of fact when was the last time both teams played each other ? You best be worried about the stros
They last played each other in 2016.
The Angels will have plenty of competition from the As for the wild card spot.
Lol
They did it again. First Hayward now darvish two very bad deals. Cubs are nuts
And yet they won the WS with Heyward.
Says the Mets fan. How’s that Wright deal going?
Or that super rotation….
we’re the cubs better off resigning arrieta or going after a second tier ace like lance lynn or alex cobb?
Lynn is a disaster waiting to happen and Jake has had declining stats the last two seasons
In short no lol
Theo pulls an Arnold Mr. Freeze, “Allow me to break the ice…”
Still 100 FA not signed. That one guy signed is not a sign that the market is shifting or that the owners are not colluding, just that Darvish decided to sign.
Unfortunately, I think you are right. I don’t think it’s a sign that anything else is necessarily going to happen. Maybe the Cards or Brewers will respond with a signing or a trade (surprising if they don’t), but the larger market? I wish I thought it would break open now. But I don’t. (And I do think owners are colluding – if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck…. etc.)
You aren’t in left field you’re out to another planet if you think the owners are colluding. There’s like a 100 reasons and facts that point to the cause of why the offers aren’t as lucrative BUT still VERY lucrative see jd and Hosmers deals and 1 reason why collusion has been suggested and that’s the agents as a negotiation tactic.
One top player signing in no way indicates that it’s not collusion. 1 in 8 players from end of season rosters still not being signed does.
I agree there is no collusion at all anyway who thinks so is being paid by agents. Case closed
Probably takes the cubs out of the harper race for next year. Their payroll will already be pushing 190-200 this year, so doubt they will add another 30-40 for one player.
I thought heyward could opt out?
I don’t think hayward will be opting out of anything
There is no reason for him to opt out
Yea he can opt out. What is your point? Why in the world would he opt out?
Where are all the guys who say that opt outs are good for the team? No they are NOT!
Check your facts
Just watch. Harper to Chicago happens next year and everyone whines about an overpay. Fans of every other team still can’t grasp that the Cubs aren’t the familiar and easy punchline anymore…and it drives them nuts.
The scrubby cubbies had a charm to them despite their tanking but I agree they aren’t a joke in mlb anymore and it’s good for the game. 108 years of futility must have been beyond horrible for your fan base to suffer from and I hope no fan base ever has to go through that again
Can it be called tanking when they weren’t trying to suck?
Yanks02026, Harper could have his contract structured so it’s backloaded. He’s not dumb. He’s not going to ruin the Cubs payroll.
Pretty sure thats not how the luxury cap works.. It goes by the annual value, not by what he gets paid year 1 to year 2.. if that was the case teams would be giving players 50 million for year 1 and then 5 the next year.
That may be, but read northsidecrossrifles comment. The cubs are not hurting for money. They can pretty much do whatever they want and still be profitable.
ahhh pickle nickel pickle nickel touch my toes ahhh how tea do see? piggly wiggly is the store for me
Backloading does not effect the luxury tax number and backloading is stupid
Still under the luxury tax, and they’re printing money in wrigleyville. Due to all of the renovations to the stadium, and how the Ricketts are developing other money traps for fans (hotel zachary, numerous Rickett’s owned restaraunts, movie theatre and parking complex, the rooftops), the Cub’s future revenue stream will be ridiculous. Plus they’re the only major market North American sports team without a long term tv deal, and they’re in a prime bargaining position to write their own multi billion dollar deal
I’m just hoping cubs network is nationwide, like how wgn had cubs games nationwide until a couple seasons ago. Made me a cubs fan in California.
Lol
Darvish would have been a good short term addition to Dodgers, but glad to see that Dodgers are developing Buherle. Would rather see LA go get someone like Archer. As a Dodger fan who cannot watch them on TV, glad to see LA show some restraint on this one.
As a cards fan this just makes it even more frustrating the FO is sitting on their hands. They put all their faith in unproven prospects and a has-been closer while the clubs around them make moves to improve. If the Brewers do end up signing Arrieta it’s over. At this point we are playing for the second wild card
Fellow cards fan dude really? Ozuna was a great pickup but everything on the market is shit and stuff we already have. We have a great outfield, Carpenter healthy, Fowler in better shape, young arms dude are so much better then Holland’s arm and his 2nd half wasn’t bueno. Mozeliak knows what he’s doing, he hasn’t paid attention to fans like you and it’s helped the winning tradition. We were in it still with all of our issues to almost the very end, but I’m more excited about the talent we have coming up then these older guys with arm troubles.
Not going to lie, it’s great watching the fall to mediocrity. IMO you guys are due for a good decade or two of .500 or below .500 baseball. REALLY test your faithfulness and if your fan base really deserves the title of “best fans in the game”…….. which I think you gave yourselves, but whatever. See how loyal and great a fan base the Cards really have after about 15-20 years of living in mediocrity hell. I’m counting down the days until Aaron Rodgers retires too so then Packers fans up north can finally live in football hell too. NO WAY can they possibly have back to back to back HOF caliber QBs….. if they do I’ll cry…. that would be so unfair. haha. Going through a 20 year drought of not making the playoffs is a good thing for a fan base….. builds character and weeds out the pretenders.
I actually like the Red Bird team as it stands right now, even if they sit tight and don’t add Hosmer and/or trade for Archer and Columbe. The move that frightened me was Cubs’ move for Archer. The Cubs roster is now frozen, not just in 2018. but for years to come. A full year of Pham, Reyes, Weaver, Carpenter, Gyorko, and DeJong, the addition of Ozuna,Leone and Mikalos, and the myriad of young outfielders and pitchers makes the Cards not only a threat in the NL central, but in many years to come.
They already did with Favre followed by Rodgers.
A good decade or two? Ha! Really ? The Cards have a great minor league system
and plenty of new tv money to spend! Lots of good pitching in the pipeline ! Don’t expect many losing years at all !
Seriously? You would have been ok with Mo making this same deal? Pass.
No, not this deal. But are you happy about the cubs making it? Are you happy about gregerson being our closer? I’m not saying they should have made this deal but there are plenty of areas we needed to improve on and we didn’t.
Now watch everybody else fall in line now. At least SP anyway.
Arrieta to Brewers
Lynn to Orioles
Cobb to Twins
now the cubs have 2 albatross contracts in Darvish and Heyward. Gonna turn out the same. Horrible for the Cubs. They may get 1 good year outta as he is NOT and ACE.
Lester was 6 years 155 million. That one is looking good.
it’s not that horrible of a deal. Do I have my doubts about Darvish, hell yeah. But honestly, it is hard to judge. 2017 was really his first full year coming back from TJ surgery….. and if you look at the numbers he was actually better than a lot of the Cubs starters last year.
Do I see the possibility for failure in this deal.. sure, pretty much every deal is likely to fail. But I also see the possibility that Darvish returns to form and gives the Cubs a least 3 solid years. If not…. oh well, it’s not my money. Chatwood and the $13M he’ll be making the next 3 years each year is more of a concern to me than Darvish making an AAV of $21M. I mean the Cubs paid Arrieta just over $15.5M last year. This is only $5.5M more than that. And quite honestly, even with this deal and looking at their other signings….. I think their team payroll still might be less or at the very most right at where it was last year. With Montero, Lackey, and Arrieta gone those three alone (not counting the other guys they let go) accounted for like $45M in payroll last year. Who were the “big” signings for the cubs this offseason? Chatwood, Morrow, and Darvish….. $13M, $9M, and $21M….. That’s $43M. The only other FA add I can think of was Cishek. He signed a 2 year $13M deal…. so that’s $6.5M. Wade Davis was paid $10M last year and is gone….. Bam… more savings.
It always baffles me how hung up people get about contracts…. as if they themselves are paying them, or as if the team can’t afford them. The Cubs payroll is still only like $170-175M…. just like it was last year. They could easily….. EASILY be up there with the Dodgers in the $220-230 neighborhood if they wanted to. Ricketts and the Cubs have so much money oozing out of every orifice they don’t know what to do with it….. and just wait another 2 years or so when they likely get their own TV network…. f**k TV deals, rumor has it they’ll start their own network a la Yankees style. When that happens they’ll literally have billions upon billions of dollars at their disposal. So again, I really don’t get why people get so da** hung up on contracts….. as if this team has the operating capacity of the Marlins or something. And even if they don’t get their own network they WILL definitely get a new TV deal and it WILL be insanely lucrative. So, yeah.
Its just a shame they wound up with Heyward. 28 million yearly for defense is just dumb. Almora is an excellent outfielder and only costs 500K lol!
Cubs are not paying Heyward anywhere near $28 AAV you troll
Heywards cap hit for 2017
And 2018 is $28 million! Then over $23 million the next 5 years ! Plus a $20 million dollar bonus!
The Heyward contract is not even comparable to Darvish. Heyward is basically just taking up space that can filled by somebody else. His place on the Cubs might be the one factor that prevents them from getting Harper next year.
Hey Rusty. Aces get $30 million plus fella. No he is not an ace and he is not paid like an ace
And these players were complaining about not getting paid. $126 million!!! SMH
as a cubs fan I like it we our still under the tax tv revenue deal up after 2019 to keep the younger players at that point we can go over the luxury tax
They will probably be over the tax… According to baseball reference it estimates them around 159 before Darvish and I don’t think that number includes the insurances and stuff
it depends on the contracts our loaded Hayward a lot where in the first 2 years I say there under because the tax gets to high after each year and we need to stay under for Russell etc in 2 years
They won’t be over the tax.
Cubs 2018 payroll was ~$164M (for luxury tax purposes) before the Darvish signing (source: Cot’s), That includes estimates for player benefits and other relatively minor expenses. If the AAV of Darvish’s deal is $25M, the Cubs 2018 payroll would currently project at $189M, which is $8M below the luxury tax threshold this year.
$21/year is good deal
If he only sees 5 years it’s ~$25/year which is still good.
If he only sees 4 years it ~$31/year which is just above what he was projected to average over 5 years.
Interested to hear about the incentives, but sounds like there no trade clauses or opt outs.
Full NTC and opt outs after year 2 and year 3.
I like the annual average salary, but 6 years……. yikes. Hopefully it’s FRONT loaded….. you know, a contract that would actually make sense. Never understood why teams backload contracts. Why pay a dude more per year at the end of a deal when they’re likely worthless.
On paper this is a stellar move. I’m not overly impressed with Darvish’s career though. He had like 1.5 years of top tier, Ace-like pitching. He’s just been mediocre or “just good” the rest of the time. Then for those who don’t understand the term “racist” you can call me that all you want, but it’s hard to ignore the long list of failed Asian baseball players….. especially when it comes to pitchers. I mean Hiroki Kuroda is the best Asian pitcher IMO to play the game. Nomo and Park get a lot of love…. for some reason, but when you go look at their numbers they were insanely mediocre…. #4 quality starters. Hopefully Darvish breaks the trend….. we shall see. I PRAY my skepticism is unwarranted and he dominates. Trust me. I’ll GLADLY admit my concerns were wrong come October if he finishes with 32+ starts and an ERA around 3.00-3.30 or under. If that’s what happens, Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, and Chatwood is a pretty solid rotation. Personally, I still would like to see them use my hybrid 6th starter strategy. Use Chatwood and Montgomery in tandem in that 5th starter spot. Have Chatwood start every 5th day like normal, but he only goes, tops, 3-4 innings. Then after that, every time, insert Montgomery to go the next 3-4 innings. That almost guarantees you you’ll get 7-8 innings out of your duo in the 5th starting spot, essentially giving the bullpen the day off other than maybe a setup man and the closer. Then after the start both Chatwood and Montgomery rest until their next tandem start. I think this strategy would give INSANE production and value out of what normally is your weakest starter. Each pitcher would go through the lineup only once or twice. Pitchers, especially those of Chatwood and Montgomery’s caliber, generally have more and more trouble the more times they go through the lineup. In fact, looking at the stats on baseballreference I can roughly guesstimate that Chatwood’s ERA last year through the first three innings of the game was around 3.50. Not bad, especially for a 5th starter. But his ERA in the 4th inning onward was close to 6.00. Montgomery is the same way. I mean we all know this. He’s pretty stellar as a reliever, not so much as a starter. If he only has to face a lineup 1-1.5 times through it I think he’d be great. Then there is the added bonus of the innings each would eat up. With this strategy each guy would roughly pitch 120 innings. That’s 240 innings out of your (tandem) 5th starter. That alone is considerable value added to an otherwise weak roster spot. Not to mention the fact the much lighter workload would likely mean Chatwood does the impossible so far in his career, and actually stay healthy all year.
We shall see. It’s a pretty “out there” idea…. but not too out there. I mean I’ve heard broadcasters bring up this very strategy and many think it is the future of how pitching will work. I’m not normally keen to out of the box thinking when it comes to baseball….. mainly because the game is so old and the way it is is because it’s a proven method, and the out of the box ideas tried almost always have no effect if not a negative effect. Like most of Maddon’s decisions make me irate because they rarely work, it’s the talent level on this team that always bails his a** out, giving the illusion that Maddon’s decisions are better than they really are. But, Maddon is the right guy to have to try this tandem 5th/6th starter strategy. I see only positives from it and considerable added value to a rotation spot that is often dismissed. Seriously, it’s not too crazy to think that Chatwood/Montgomery “start” 33 games in 2018 with each pitching about 110-120 innings and Chatwwod having, say, a 3.50 ERA, and Montgomery an ERA around 3.00 (in his career Montgomery as a reliever, which is what he’ll essentially be still, owns a 2.29 ERA….. I think him having a 3.00 ERA with this strategy is pretty tame). That’s a 3.25 ERA from your tandem 5th starting spot which also pitches 220-240 innings for you….. that’s Ace-like production from your 5th spot. At least worth a shot IMO. Try it out until June and see how it’s working then and re-evaluate. Again, it’s essentially giving the bullpen a day off. OH YEAH, and with it being Chatwood and montgomery, the first 1-1.5 times through the lineup opponents will be facing a righty in Chatwood. Then in their 2nd and/or 3rd ABs they’ll be facing Montgomery – a lefty. Then if Morrow is the closer, in their 3rd or 4th AB they’ll be back to facing a righty. That would play hell on today’s manager who micromanages the hell out of games and loves to play matchups. not to mention the hell it will play on hitters, constantly changing the spot where the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand going from a righty to a lefty to a righty again. No getting into a groove I’d think for opposing hitters.
Whether it’s front or back loaded makes no difference in luxury tax hit. That’s the only thing that really matters when it comes to salary
That is one thing that matters and AAV only matters for the 5-6 high revenue teams that are close to the CBT threshold.
Not really. That’s the only thing that matters when it comes to payroll…… and the Cubs payroll is still well under the luxury tax threshhold. Contracts on the individual level I would say the yearly payout does matter….. at least on a logical standpoint. Darvish is going to likely have better years at the beginning of the contract than at the end. LOGICALLY it would make sense to pay him more of that total contract value at the beginning of the deal than at the end. Ideally you want you biggest contributors to team success being the ones making the most money on your team. So in Darvish making, say, $18M in 2018 and posting a statline of, say 18 wins, a 3.10 ERA, and about 10 K/9 IP is great, no doubt. But on year 5 or 6 when he’s winning maybe only 10 games and posts a 4.00 ERA with only 6-7 K/9 but making $25M a year….. it’s just bad money. An inferior player on your team is eating up more payroll space, inching you toward that luxury tax. So yes….. I would say front loaded and backloaded contracts make a difference. Mainly because when the player is making the mot money at the beginning of the deal but also providing a ton of production you don’t really have to make a big addition come the trade deadline, or in that upcoming offseason. But as the player’s production decreases over time – so does his salary, therefore making the decision to add better, more expensive talent via a trade of free agent signing possible due to more payroll space being available, and by that I mean more space until you hit the luxury tax threshold. So while in the grand scheme of it all, front and backloaded deals do effect a team’s payroll inching toward the luxury tax.
I did a horrible job explaining it, but you saying front and backloaded makes no difference makes zero sense at all. The fact you got 3 up votes tells me there are more nonsensical fools out there too who don’t understand the concept of talent to value ratios. Front loaded vs backloaded makes a MASSIVE difference. Or do you think that Albert Pujols and his backloaded deal isn’t hurting the Angels right now. If you say it isn’t you’ve made it clear….. you’re an idiot. Now if Pujols’ contract was getting smaller and smaller each year because it was front loaded…… it wouldn’t be that bad of a contract. Point is, you want your best players to be paid the most on your team and front loaded contracts almost guarantee that….. almost….. at least they do MUCH more than backloaded deals which are almost guarantees to be horrible contracts. Because a team will need to add more talent and therefore more money down the road, but their now mediocre player (at best) who was a big deal 3-4 years ago is taking up even MORE of the payroll with his backloaded contract, making it difficult to sign that younger, better player and still staying under the luxury tax threshold. I can’t believe people believe otherwise or don’t get the basic principles of cost effective ratios.
Bobby Bonilla is STILL sucking wind out of the Mets financials……..Incredible.
How’s that looking………LOL
KB isn’t the luxury tax threshold going up in dollars with each year? So if that’s the case, it keeps the contracts about the same, give or take on future contracts
I think it goes to $209 million next year! But not positive!
Does anyone read KB’s eyesore novels? Nope no one does but keep writing the novels no one reads KB
His meth musta kicked in, big time.
Swapping Arrieta for Darvish seems like a lateral move. Cubs stay status quo, Brewers get better, Dodgers are worse and Giants are better. Should be interesting in the NL this year.
Hahahahaha!!!! “Lateral move.” Everything about this comment is just so wrong. Love it!
cubs added Chatwood to rotation. Clear upgrade from Lackey. Also added Morrow and Cishek. Lost Davis. Russell healthy(for now). On paper a better team than last year.
Hahaha. You realize the Cubs are ridiculously young, right? Their position players will be even better this year. That’s the scary part. Milwaukee has zero pitching. Chicago has a boatload of it. That’s the enormous difference.
“Zero pitching”
How will any opposing teams even get a hit? Bold move, Cotton!
This may be the comment of the year. “Milwaukee has zero pitching”. Um, did you notice that both the Cubs and the Brewers had top 10 pitching staffs last year? Do your homework next time before you blurt out a pile of BS, please…
You better check the regression likelihood for Davies and Anderson as well as the track record for returns from labrum surgery which I personally can vouch for. Then realize next in line is Chacin and assorted hot garbage. No, Milwaukee doesn’t have pitching. Let that sink in.
You do know that even almighty Cub players can regress
and get hurt too right?
The only interesting thing in the NL will be the wildcard. Dodgers, Cubs and Nats win their divisions.
It is somewhat lateral-ish. But I don’t think it’s exactly status quo with the swap of Chatwood for Lackey. Young players will get better, moving into their primes. Bullpen has some good arms – not sure what impact losing Davis will have. Brewers played above their ability last year (or so it seems to me), and they have some solid additions this year. Without pitching adds, I think they fall short. Dodgers are NOT worse (lol) – I would put them in the “status quo” category. Being the Dodgers, that means they are still a team with monster-sized talent. And yes, Giants will be interesting this year!
The Dodgers lost both Darvish and Morrow without adding anybody. How are they not worse than they were?
I forgot about the loss of Morrow, who was a post-season beast for them. I still think they’re okay with the rotation without Darvish. I guess I can’t argue that they lost a step. I still think that they’re probably the best team in the NL even without those two because they’re still loaded! I guess Cubs kind of did a number on them taking both their pitchers. LOL
The Dodgers probably aren’t going to win 104 games again this year but not because they don’t have Darvish, since he wasn’t really a factor in them wining 104 games last year. The loss of Morrow hurts for sure, but then he wasn’t a factor for the entire season either. The keys for the Dodgers rotation are: Kershaw’s back, Hill starting off the season the way he finished the last one, and pretty much the opposite for Wood.
I don’t get how the Brewers got better. They already had a pretty offensively stout outfield last year. Their problem last year was competent pitching. Their problem this year is still…. competent pitching. Jimmy Nelson is their only semi intimidating pitcher in their rotation and he has a bum shoulder….. yeah. What’s his name, Chase Anderson?, had a SHOCKER of a year last year. The 30 year old journeyman happened to have a career year. If people are expecting that year in and year out they are setting themselves up for heartache. After those two, a DL player and a 30 year old journeyman, their rotation drops off considerably…… and it wasn’t really starting at a high point to drop off from, haha. Knebel out of their pen is the only “star” I’d say on that staff. UNless they have some insanely promising young pitching prospects to debut this year….. it’s the same team as last year pretty much.
Also, why do people think Lorenzo Cain is this top tier talent? He’s the black Nick Markakis….. or Black Martin Prado. Before you dismiss those comparisons…. actually look at their career numbers…… prepare to be humbled. I don’t recall Braves fans puffing out their chests when they signed Markakis…. yet Brewers fans (and the media….. classic idiots) are acting like Cain is one of the best all around OFers in the game when reality says he’s an average player. Then to top it off….. he’s ALWAYS injured. In the last 5 years this is Cain’s average statline:
129 GP, .291 BA, .345 OBP, .767 OPS, 10 HRs, 20 SBs. 107 OPS+
Not bad by any means….. but UNBELIEVABLE like people are making it out to be? No.
Here is Markakis over the same timespan and his averages
158 GP, .277 BA, .348 OBP, .728 OPS, 10 HRs, 1 SB. 99 OPS+
About the same…. maybe a hair worse. Point is, Cain at the very least is BARELY better than Markakis. And whatever Markakis lacks he more than makes up for in reliability in staying on the field…. an area where Cain fails miserably.
As for Prado, he was injured a good amount last year or was benched most of the time. But in the 5 year span from 2012-2016 here are his 5 year averages
147 GP, .292 BA, .343 OBP, .759 OPS, 11 HRs, 5 SBs. 108 OPS+
Damn near identical. What Cain does in SBs, Prado made up for in health and staying on the field.
Point is….. Cain is hardly this superstar people are making him out to be. Yelich, honestly isn’t the stud people are making him out to be either IMO. Don’t get me wrong here either, he’s a good player. Hits for solid averages across the board….. but it’s not like he’s bashing the ball with the best of them. He’s a fringe 20HR hitter. Hits about 35-40 doubles…. nothing too flashy. People are acting like the Brewers added two dudes who hit well over .300 and can bash 35+ HRs year in and year out. Combined they can’t even hit 35 HRs.
I’m not saying the Brewers are going to be a bad team. I think predictions are kind of futile honestly. But I DO think they over performed last year, and I honestly don’t see any moves they’ve made this offseason to be significantly better. And for a team supposedly in the middle of a rebuild….. they just traded their best prospect away this offseason….. and are a team full of veterans from other teams. Where are the young, promising prospects on this team?…… and if their farm is so good….. why haven’t I heard any buzz about any of their prospects….. other than the one they just traded away to Miami. I mean on their MLB page they have a kid named Corey Ray as their number 1 prospect….. WHO?! A high single A outfielder who hit a whopping .238 last year in single A. Yeah. Their #2 prospect is Luis Ortiz a RHP who in double A last year possessed a 4.01 ERA…. ooooooh doggy. #3 prospect? Another RHP in Brandon Woodruff who made his MLB debut last year and pitched 43 innings to the tune of a 4.81 ERA… his minors numbers in triple A weren’t much better in 16 starts and 75+ IP….. he had a 4.31 ERA there. None of those guys are top 50 MLB prospects. So again, Milwaukee….. where are these highly touted prospects from your highly ranked farm system? Bleacher Report has/had your system at #7 in MLB. But that was with Brinson…. i can’t imagine he had THAT much value impact on your farm system…… but maybe he did because looking at the top 30 on MLB…. pretty uninspiring.