After watching a variety of quality free agents settle for shorter and less-lucrative contracts than expected — including established veteran starter Lance Lynn — it seemed that right-hander Alex Cobb would likewise need to take what he could get and plan to return to the open market in the near future in search of a heftier pact. Instead, he struck a surprising four-year, $57MM deal yesterday with the Orioles.
Of course, that contract wouldn’t have seemed out of line when the offseason got underway. MLBTR tabbed Cobb the 11th-best free agent available and predicted he’d secure a four-year contract with a $48MM guarantee — not far off from where he ultimately landed. But we also guessed four and $56MM for Lynn, who got just $12MM from the Twins despite signing a few weeks before Cobb and carrying a broadly similar overall profile in terms of age and track record. And when we reexamined the market before Lynn’s signing, we downgraded expectations for both hurlers.
Needless to say, this winter’s market has been something of a moving target. At the end of the day, though, Cobb will land a sizable but generally market-rate deal with an organization that came into the winter as perhaps the most pitching-needy would-be contender in baseball. If the deal is finalized, Cobb will join Andrew Cashner and the re-signed Chris Tillman as free-agent additions to a staff that already featured Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman.
There are still questions up and down that five-man crew, but the overall talent base on the pitching staff is quite a bit higher now than at the outset of the offseason. One can argue that the O’s ought not to have made a commitment of this magnitude entering the organization’s final season of control over Manny Machado and Adam Jones. On the other hand, it’s hard to condemn a club for spending to win, especially when so many others are focusing on the future. And while the Cobb contract hardly seems a bargain, it’s roughly in range of his market value and arguably delivers some upside given Cobb’s history as a top-of-the-rotation presence. He was, after all, one of the most effective starters in the AL East in 2013-14 and delivered 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching in 2017.
How would you grade the move from the team’s perspective? (Link for app users.)
Great addition by the Orioles and a great contract for Cobb, especially in this market. It’s a win-win to me. A+
Cobb made out well, but the O’s still made a good signing. You could make a case that he is their best starting pitcher.
I also love the contract compared to some of the late Boras signings
I feel it’s an improvement but wasted money. There core is departing and I would be shocked if it puts them in contention when the Sox and Yanks look to be dominate. By the time they may have a chance he has a high chance to be declining. I just don’t see the need to spend on a guy who looks like he won’t help. The lost draft pick on a team that doesn’t look like an immediate contender just seems counterintuitive
Agreed. He doesn’t change the fact that the orioles will struggle to finish I third place in the AL east. When they lose their 4 key players this offseason they’ll be forced to start a rebuild. With or without DD. By the time they are ready to contend again Cobb will be gone or declining. Puzzling move that all but ensure manny finishes the year with the orioles.
The core—or at least part of it won’t be back. But that’s not a bad thing. There’s also a new core (including Hunter Harvey for the rotation) soon to emerge. The O’s could well be competitive this year (on per their rotation is better, so is their defense and the bullpen should be it’s typically solid self) and with a ton of money coming off the books this offseason, for the coming years as well.
I think its a great signing for them. It makes more sense then them signing Lynn. Cobb has pitched his whole career in a tough AL East and has done a decent job while also pitching at OPACY quite a bit and doing well there too. The Orioles have seen this guy enough to know exactly the type of pitcher he is. He know is added to one of the best rotations the Orioles have put out in years.
Is Cobb $49.50 million better than Lance Lynn? I’d agree that Cobb’s ceiling is higher, but Lynn’s been more consistent more recently.
Both pitchers missed the ‘16 season with TJ and Cobb tossed up a lower ERA and FIP than Lance Lynn. There’s really not an argument for Lynn having a better recent track record. Lynn has been more durable over the course of his career but recently the edge goes to Cobb. Cobb also pitched in the ALE v NL central.
Cobb has never….(never!)…made 30 starts in a season. He has never…(never!)…pitched 180 innings in a season. He missed all of 2015 and nearly all of 2016 with injury. Plus, his stat line isn’t going to increase since he is still pitching in the AL East. If you’re counting on signing a pitcher that you peg to be your “front-of-the-rotation” guy, I would expect a stronger back of the baseball card.
Lynn missed 2016, yes. But he has consistently started 30+ games and pitched 175+ innings every other year of his career. He has never had an ERA over 4.00. (His 2017 was better than Cobb’s, btw) And now he’s pitching against the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals (and Indians, I know). Instead of the Cubs, Pirates, Brewers, and Reds. (Pirates and Reds aren’t too good now, but Lynn faced them when they were strong)
Cobb may be better, when healthy. I don’t know, They are similar pitchers in a ton of areas. But he isn’t worth $40 million MORE than Lynn. I’m more griping about Lynn’s lack of a contract instead of what Cobb signed for.
Lynn got nothing. I’m surprised he settled for nothing. If he bounces back next year what is he going to get? He’ll just be another year older. Cobb’s ERA was a little higher now that I checked though his FIP was a good deal lower. I think Cobb has the greater upside and has pitched through a tougher division but idk what Lynn was thinking with that contract.
That’s comparing a 4 year deal to a 1 year deal. How about comparing the 1 year salaries instead! Cobb-$14.5 vs. Lynn-$12 million is the better look see! So is he $2.5 million better ?
I’d say that Cobb wins this one
Pretty odd that even with 10 days left until the season, somehow he manages more than the MLBTR predicted contract. I’d really like to know Cobb’s market and who BAL was bidding against.
That’s fair re who BAL was bidding against. Yet they’re also trying to win and this is a real nice step in that direction.
Who were they bidding against with the season starting in a week?
Of course he wins. All MLB players win because of guaranteed deals. That doesn’t mean the Orioles won’t also win.
Sorry…. this was meant for the post about yours.
Well said.
A pitcher with his durability issues never got a contract this big, plus they realistically ain’t gonna be a contender for a while. It’s a pretty weird, pointless signing.
Theyre not likely they contend but if all of their starters pitch to their ability, they’d have a chance
I disagree. Having an actual starting rotation (1) makes them a contender for a wild card spot and (2) makes it easier to pitch Machado, Jones, Britton, et al to resign with the club. This move was just as much about the next three years as it was about this year. It means that the players don’t ever have tp take the field thinking that they were probably going to lose that day.
There is no pitching Machado on staying. He’s as good as gone.
Britton? Who knows what he will be coming back from another injury. He should have been traded after his Cy Young caliber season.
Jones is the best bet to resign, and I hope he does. That said, it better not be another B-Rob extension and be valued based on future rather than past performance.
Cashner is likely to regress
Bundy + Gausman aren’t TOR
Cobb has durability issues
They’re #5 is either Gabriel Ynoa or a rule 5 pick
Britton is out til midseason, Davis is bad
They can’t afford to sign Machado
Theres a pretty realistic world where they’re 5th place
Chris Tillman is their 5th starter not Gabriel Ynoa lol
You apparently haven’t seen Bundy pitch. Cobb had Tommy John so should only improve. Gausman just needs to pick a full year like he’s capable instead of half the year and he would be a TOR. They won’t miss Britton too much till May. Davis is not injured this year. It’s just as realistic they are in 1st. Trumbo/Davis have the same track record of Stanton/Judge.
Where are Trumbo and Davis hiding their MVP awards? Because I can’t find them.
Easy. Easy. Let’s not go Trumbo/Davis being anywhere equivalent to judge/Stanton. Who cares what MLBTR commenters say anyway? The orioles are never picked to win anything. That’s why they play the games. We’ll see soon enough what we have on the field.
Chris Davis has had years somewhat approaching Judge’s behemoth 2017, though every measure of WAR gives judge the significant upper hand. But, Trumbo? Even his “good” 2016 was based singularly on his ability to hit home runs. Little plate discipline, negative fielding contributions, really poor WAR numbers. It’s just not a realistic comparison to Stanton in any way.
I get a kick when people compare Trumbo and Davis with Stanton and Judge. If you’re gonna use THEIR best, then use OUR best. Machado and Schoop…. who are better all around players when you factor in defense.
I like your style, jbigz12. You’re one of the most objective posters here.
I was on record saying I thought four year deal to a pitcher with Cobb’s injury history (never pitched 180IP.. 30GS.. etc) was crazy.
But as you’ve pointed out, he’s a proven AL East pitcher. I hope this signing pans out, and I’m wrong. I’m not an O’s hater. I respect the franchise quite a bit. I just thought with the “special nature” of this offseason Cobb got overpaid, because he’s deeply flawed (most of those flaws are durabilty concerns)
Lynn’s discount double check makes Cobb deal look worse. I gave the signing a C, and I hope I’m wrong about It. O’s fans have suffered enough. $60M for Cobb, but yet you never Sign a single IFA, Angelos!!!
$57M* for Cobb not 60.
Baltimore seems to bid against themselves alot like with chris davis. I don’t know if anyone else bid that high, but it wouldnt surprise me if that’s the case here. He has never reached 180 innings. The fact he got 4 years and 57 million is just not a move Baltimore needed to make. But i do still like they got him. For now, I’d give the signing a D from the o’s perspective
If he had received this deal on day one of free agency, this deal would be a steal for the O’s. It’s market value and Baltimore is not exactly a friendly park for pitchers. A ‘D’ grade is pretty harsh.
Maybe it is harsh. I would definitely switch it to a B if we knew some others teams were going around that range. But for now we dont.
I give it a ‘D’ also. Not only did they not take advantage of the market (and why wouldn’t they? Players do), but they also broke their own rule after that Ubaldo signing on a guy with major health concerns.
Ubaldo never hit the DL.
He should of been!
With the five pitchers they now have, there is a good chance the Os will be close in August. They hold on to manny, get nothing for him . Same old Os
Qualifying offer for draft pick compensation is not much but it isnt nothing.
They’d be crazy not to deal Machado at the deadline.
Interesting move…. Cobb has a lot to prove this year, and I think this staff might surprise or has the possibility to do so but that’s a big if. But let’s face it they were hard up for pitching… awesome pen when it’s healthy but also have a crazy tough sch to start the season so beware it could get ugly
$15mil/yr for a pitcher of his caliber seems like a fair price. Decent upside and not a crazy amount of risk at that amount of cash. Gives the O’s more financial flexibility in the future with a decent 2 or 3 starter on the books for a while and gives that rotation a little bit of stability. It’s signings like this that can help them compete post-Machado. They still need to find dependable/consistent arms and increase their depth. I suspect a rebuild is on the horizon similar to what the White Sox did. I think a lot of teams will be following that model (cough*Marlins*cough) which is a damn shame for the sport because it’s essentially becoming the NBA with tanking teams. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a great move by the organization but when a team is so obviously not trying to compete it’s embarrassing for the sport.
Contending, even at full payroll capacity relative to the market is inherently cyclical. No matter what, teams are are always competing on a different level. Recognizing and embracing the downside of the cycle is not wrong nor bad for the sport. It’s unfortunate that teams can’t compete on the same level but that’s life.
The O’s seem to feel compelled to give out 4/50-something contracts to pitchers. Cobb’s better than the other guys they’ve done it with, but what a massive misreading of the market for a guy with talent but who has never been a reliable source of innings. Consistently wasting money with long term commitments to players who aren’t worth it — Davis, Trumbo, Ubaldo, etc — only makes it more difficult to afford players who are actually good. Would it be taken for granted that Machado was gone if they hadn’t wasted $250 million or so on Davis, Trumbo, and Ubaldo? Maybe Machado would’ve taken a Trout-like extension a couple of years ago.
Find me a team in baseball who hasn’t given out a bad 3/39 like the one to Trumbo or a 4/50 to a guy like ubaldo. The twins have out multiple. Nolasco and Hughes were getting paid 4/50 in their rotation for no results. The orioles don’t “feel compelled” to give out 50 million dollar contracts to pitchers. How many have we EVER given out? 1. To ubaldo. That’s it.
I would give this signing a B+ from the Orioles perspective. Nobody would have given the O’s a chance to land Cobb at the beginning of the off-season. You could argue that Cashner was even viewed as a stretch. Well they managed to land both for multiple years, which helped address their most obvious weakness.
My only complaint would be that if they were willing to go over three years and offer a substantial amount of money, why not go after Arrieta? Of course, they may have made him a similar offer and it was turned down.
Arrieta hates the O’s. He literally said he was in a constant tug-o-war with them before he was traded to the Cubs. I don’t think any amount of money was gonna lure him back.
I remember that. He seemed more open to a return later in the off season. As a fan, I’m super excited about Cobb. Looking forward to this season. Also, many people don’t realize how well a couple of these Rule 5 guys are pitching in ST right now. We seem to have a lot more relief pitching depth this season.
Cobb or Lynn were the best left available and I think they got a fair deal out of it. They could have also offered less money that Cobb was considering before Lynn signed with the Twins. So maybe the O’s upped the price a little to get their guy? Plus $15mil/yr isn’t unreasonable for a guy like Cobb. Definitely a win-win imo
I like the signing, as it really helps out our rotation. Bundy, Gausman, Cobb, Cashner, Tillman isn’t awful. It may have been a little pricey seeing what Lynn got, but still a good addition.
hey, is it 2016? Didn’t the O’s see what other guys got? Plus draft pick compensation? And when they say they don’t have the money for Manny, this is why.
This signing isn’t great, but not terrible in a vacuum. I really do not like it for this O’s team though.
Everyone saying they dont like it probably arent orioles fans. Every year people comment saying that they are going to be horrible and the past couple years while people were still saying it, they took the WC spots. Every year people complain that we need pitching and they bring in the best options in their price range yet people still complain. The guys they brought in are far better then our internal options. We all know Manny was never going to stay and we dont have money for the big name pitchers. Even after this signing and next year when those others come off the books, we will have a big amount of money to spend.
You’re right im not an Orioles fan thankfully and they’ve never won anything but yes they made the playoffs a few years ago congrats theres more to it than a few playoff appearances in the last 20 years they’re farm system is awful and yes they have awful pitching and this comment is one long sentence isnt it ?
Yes Baltimore has won! 1966, 1970,
and 1983! Are you sure you’re a baseball fan ?
I believe your comment is one long question. With the question mark and all . . . Hahaha
Meh a win for Cobb certainly. A win for Cobb means the Birds overpaid a bit so a small loss on their part. If this was a normal year the price was fair for a guy like Cobb, but in this world Cobb got overpaid. I doubt anyone else was lining up to pay Cobb like this.
I like this deal for the OS assuming they ship him out mid season when it’s clear that they won’t be contending for another few years. This team is in desperate need of new management.
Good move on both ends.
Now dump Machado and Scoops and re-stock with young, controllable talent. Who knows, maybe find some players who want to be in Baltimore.
And- Sign Jones To An Extension. That guy deserves it!!
I’ll take things that the orioles shouldn’t do for 500,please.
Looks like they bid against themselves plus this signing wont put them in the running for a playoff spot against a stacked AL. Combine that with the loss of a draft pick and its another example of this team being one of the worst run in all of sports
Good for Cobb, bad for the Os. If this was the missing piece to contend- fine but Cobb and a bunch of others are needed to improve this squad. Next season you have Davis, Trumbo and Cobb and probably no Manny. I would much rather have Manny for that money and a couple of kids to take their place.
Not sure how most of you on this tread think the orioles made it nicely, this dude has thrown 180 innings once in his like and got a 4/60?? Also he’s already declining and won’t be ready for opening day. Not a good signing. Grade C
Intriguing signing. It definitely improves the Orioles. However, the length and amount of the deal is shocking. Who else was in this bidding war? I have yet to find any comment suggesting another team was trying to sign Cobb. Brings back memories of Davis. He must have made a great impression on Angelos.
I don’t think it was s matter of s bidding war. Everyone is looking with blinders on. It’s a matter of this is what it will take to sign me or I don’t sign. Simple as that. He wasn’t going to take less. If he was he would have signed with the Cubs or elsewhere. The Os figured better sign him now before another team who may need him later signs him. He for sure would have sat until he got his deal.
Starting to think when all is said and done this offseason won’t even be thought of as weird.
The Orioles are one of the teams that are trying to contend but should have instead decided to rebuild. Im sure a lot of Orioles fans will tell me it hasn’t gotten that bad yet but that’s exactly why they should NOW! They still have players that are worth something. You don’t want to be a club that losses 90 games and THEN decides to rebuild. That team doesn’t have much to rebuild on.
I like the fact that it was the sons of Peter Angelos that pushed for this deal. That is the kind of aggressiveness that we haven’t seen in Baltimore for a while.
Ownership (and family) shouldn’t be that involved in player acquisition outside of approving requested increases in payroll.
Maybe so, but Steinbrenner make some pretty good calls.
Reading the reactions to the Cobb deal. A lot of people saying the Os can’t contend and should do the tank/rebuild.
1) The Os actually contended last year until September 1st (1 game out I think) with some of the worst SP in history.
2) The Red Sox and Yankees are good but not the best two teams in the AL. Two very unproven managers, either one could take a dump. (FWIW Farrell was a poor manager so might be a wash there.) Girardi got a lot of that team with their average SPs. Also, if Sale isn’t awesome (he was poor at the end of the year) and regresses at all the Red Sox could be in huge trouble. They did nothing in the playoffs with him anyways.
3) Something like 40% of the AL is doing the tank and rebuild thing, not including the Jays, who are not good. That means there are a lot of bad teams to play and should inflate win totals for teams with decent talent. There are two WC spots and the Twins(!) were in the playoffs last year.
4) Cobb’s value over the pitcher he’s replacing is huge, regardless of who it is. The Orioles had an epically bad staff last year and were still in it until September. That’s amazing considering Ubaldo (6.81), Miley (5.61), and Tillman (7.84) were sporting extremely bad ERAs with substantial innings.
They aren’t going to win the division but they can contend, especially with two WC slots in a league that is very top-heavy.