It’s not uncommon for one or two top-ranked free agents to see their unemployment stretch into the month of March, but the 2017-18 offseason has, of course, proven to be anything but common. It’s March 1, and an unprecedented eight of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents remain unsigned — some with a handful of clubs holding interest but waiting out a bargain but others with no clear market for their services at all.
[RELATED: 2017-18 MLB Free Agent List; 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker]
We’ll re-rank the nine best remaining free agents here and assess their current prospects:
1. Jake Arrieta
Arrieta is the top pitcher and top free agent remaining, but he holds that distinction in a market where no club appears poised to offer even four years to any free agent at this point. Agent Scott Boras compared Arrieta to Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer earlier this offseason, but it seems abundantly clear that a contract in that duo’s $180-210MM range isn’t happening. (Such numbers always seemed far-fetched.)
The Phillies have been linked to Arrieta in recent weeks, though every report out of Philadelphia has suggested that the team is only interested in capitalizing on a lackluster market and inking Arrieta to a short-term deal — perhaps for three years at a premium annual value. The Brewers have been said to hold some degree of interest but are also unlikely to pay top-of-the-market rates. The Nationals are reportedly maintaining interest, and perhaps that’s Boras’ best bet; he’s pitched directly to owner Ted Lerner in the past and has a strong relationship there. Plus, there’s no clear fifth starter for the Nats, who are currently set to go with A.J. Cole in that spot.
Earlier in the offseason, there were some connections between Arrieta and the Cardinals, though there’s been little in the way of reports connecting the two sides over the past two months. St. Louis already has a full rotation in addition to several 40-man options that appear ticketed for Triple-A to open the season.
The Twins and Angels are reportedly more or less finished with their offseason shopping, though there’s a clear on-paper fit for him in either organization.
Best remaining fits: Brewers, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Angels
At this point, it’s hard to see Moustakas commanding a significant multi-year deal. The 29-year-old belted a career-high 38 homers last year but did so with a .314 OBP that fell within close proximity to his career .305 on-base percentage. Moustakas’ power surge came at a time when the entire league hit long balls at a historic rate, thus mitigating the value of that improvement. Moose and Boras need not look any further than Logan Morrison, who also slugged 38 homers last season and recently settled for a $6.5MM guarantee from the Twins, for proof that those homers aren’t going to be compensated as they once were.
The Cardinals added one power bat to their lineup in Marcell Ozuna this offseason but could conceivably play Matt Carpenter at first, Moustakas at third and split Jose Martinez’s time between first base and the outfield. Bringing him in would likely push the out-of-options Greg Garcia off the roster and make Jedd Gyorko the primary utility option.
The White Sox could toy with the idea of pushing Yolmer Sanchez to a utility role to accommodate Moustakas, while the Braves could do the same with Johan Camargo. But, both of those teams would need to weigh the idea of hurting this year’s draft pool by signing Moustakas, who rejected a qualifying offer in November.
The Phillies could be another dark horse here, given their minimal payroll commitments and the recent underperformance of Maikel Franco. They’d be selling low on Franco if they moved him, though, so it’s far from clear whether there’d be real interest.
Best remaining fits: Cardinals, White Sox, Braves, Phillies, Royals
3. Lance Lynn
Lynn tossed 186 1/3 innings over 33 starts with a 3.43 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, prompting him to reject a qualifying offer. However, he also turned in career-worsts in K/9, BB/9, HR/9 and chase rate while matching his career-low in fastball velocity. Lynn’s .244 BABIP was the lowest among qualified big league starters, while his 79 percent strand rate was among the highest.
Teams surely see value in Lynn as a stabilizing force at the back of a rotation, but it’s doubtful that many of today’s more data-driven clubs are evaluating him based on an ERA that looks poised for some significant regression. The five-year term Lynn reportedly sought earlier this winter isn’t going to come into play, and even three or four years at a solid AAV could be a reach at this point.
There’s still a case for a multi-year deal, of course, and all of the teams listed as plausible landing spots for Arrieta make sense for Lynn as well. One could argue that he also fits on some clubs with less payroll flexibility like the Orioles and Mariners, though neither has been linked to him. If you’re looking for a more concrete indication for how teams value Lynn, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported in his most recent podcast that the Twins threw out a low-ball offer of about $12MM total over two years. Unsurprisingly, Lynn’s agents at Excel quickly shot that down, but it’ not a great sign when that’s the type of interest he’s fielding in early March.
Best remaining fits: Brewers, Phillies, Nationals, Twins, Angels, Orioles, Mariners
4. Greg Holland
Holland reportedly had the opportunity to return to the Rockies on a three-year deal earlier this offseason, but the Rox moved on and signed Wade Davis when Holland continued shopping for better deals. It’s hard to see him coming anywhere near the $51MM that Davis secured now, and any three-year deal at a premium rate would come as a surprise.
The Cardinals still don’t have much name value at the back of their ’pen, and speculatively speaking, the Cubs could make a bargain play for Holland if he’s willing to sign a two-year deal. The Angels would reportedly consider him at the “right price.” The D-backs could use some bullpen depth and were willing to stretch payroll for J.D. Martinez, so there’s probably enough wiggle room to make it happen — especially on a backloaded deal. The Rockies, meanwhile, have been stockpiling arms, so if Holland’s price drops enough, perhaps they’d further double-down on that strategy in hopes of compiling a super-pen.
Houston was tied to Holland earlier this winter and never added a big-name reliever, while the Phillies have payroll flexibility and some open spots in the bullpen should they decide that Holland’s price has lowered to the point where he’s a good value proposition. The Nationals have been connected to Holland at times, but it seems likelier they’ll focus elsewhere after adding multiple relievers already.
Best remaining fits: Cardinals, Cubs, Angels, D-backs, Rockies, Astros, Phillies
5. Alex Cobb
Reports of Cobb’s “willingness” to sign for a four-year term in the $70MM range back in January seemed optimistic for a variety of reasons. Now, with Spring Training underway, it’s even tougher to see him landing anything within arm’s reach of those numbers. Like Lynn, Cobb posted a solid ERA in his comeback season from Tommy John, but his profile is teeming with red flags. He’s never made 30 starts or topped 180 innings in a season, his swinging-strike rate was the third-worst in all of baseball last season, and multiple reports have cited scouts questioning the effectiveness of his formerly above-average changeup.
His market overlaps with those of Arrieta and Lynn, but he also comes with draft/international forfeitures after turning down a qualifying offer. Cobb reportedly turned away a three-year deal in the $42MM range from the Cubs earlier this offseason, and I’d be surprised if he topped that figure at this point.
Best remaining fits: Brewers, Phillies, Nationals, Twins, Orioles, Mariners
Lucroy’s bat bounced back with the Rockies after a terrible start to the season with the Rangers, but his framing numbers plummeted and his power was nowhere to be found — even at Coors Field. There simply aren’t many (or perhaps even any) clubs looking for starting catchers, and the ones that arguably should be aren’t in aggressive pursuit of upgrades.
The A’s could certainly stand to look for an improvement over Bruce Maxwell, who hasn’t hit much in the Majors and is facing some troubling off-field allegations. However, Oakland brass has voiced commitment to Maxwell on more than one occasion. The Nationals would be well-served to find an alternative to Matt Wieters after a dreadful first year in D.C., but perhaps they don’t relish the idea of buying low on a second veteran in hopes of a rebound.
Speculating, the Brewers could look at Lucroy as an insurance option for Manny Pina, who stumbled in the season’s second half last year after a surprising first half. Stephen Vogt and Jett Bandy are in camp as backup options, though Vogt is out up to three weeks with a shoulder issue and on a non-guaranteed arbitration contract, while Bandy is out of minor league options and struggled tremendously in 2017. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are currently slated to use light-hitting Luke Maile as their backup to Russell Martin. There’s a fit there, but Lucroy probably prefers more playing time as he seeks to reestablish himself.
Best remaining fits: Athletics, Nationals, Brewers, Blue Jays
7. Neil Walker
Walker might be the toughest of the remaining free agents to place. He told Billy Witz of the New York Times this week that he thought he was close to going to the Yankees before they acquired Brandon Drury, and that swap now looks to have eliminated one of the top on-paper fits for him. The Brewers still need a second baseman, and Walker, a switch-hitting veteran who has steadily been an average or better regular throughout his career would be an improvement for them.
Outside of Milwaukee, there just aren’t many teams — contenders or non-contenders — looking for help at the keystone. The Tigers could conceivably move Dixon Machado to a utility role and add Walker if they feel he’s a bargain that they could flip in a trade this summer. Perhaps the Rays could view Walker as an underpriced bargain and cut ties with Brad Miller, whose arb deal isn’t guaranteed, in order to bring Walker in at second base.
The White Sox or Braves could sign him to put him at third base, though displacing current options to play Walker out of position seems like a stretch even by the loose standards set within this writing. Barring a spring injury, the market for Walker is extremely limited, which is unfortunate for him, as he’s long been a solid contributor. At the very least, he’s an intriguing bench option for contending clubs in a role not dissimilar to the one he was likely exploring with the Yankees.
Best remaining fits: Brewers, Tigers, Rays
CarGo picked a bad time for the worst offensive performance of his career, but it’s worth noting that he raked at a .327/.401/.553 clip over his final 227 plate appearances (albeit with a massively unsustainable .401 BABIP). Both the trade and free-agent markets in recent years have illustrated very clearly that modern front offices simply don’t value bat-first corner options in the same manner as their front-office predecessors. Gonzalez is hardly a butcher in the outfield, but he’s 32 years old and even favorable projections aren’t likely to peg him as more than an average right fielder.
The Orioles are the clear best fit in my eyes, having spent the offseason pining for a left-handed bat to play in right field but to this point settling on minor league deals for Colby Rasmus and Alex Presley. (Meanwhile, prospect Austin Hays’ shoulder is barking, though that seems like a short-term issue.) Adding CarGo on a short-term deal would fit well with a closing window as most of their stars are set to depart this coming offseason. A return to the Rockies isn’t exactly a clean fit given the outfield options they already possess, but Colorado has kept in touch with Gonzalez all offseason, per GM Jeff Bridich, and the slugger is already being missed in the clubhouse.
The White Sox strike me as a team with room to add, and striking a deal with CarGo would bump Leury Garcia to a super utility role for which he may be better suited than everyday activity. But, GM Rick Hahn has suggested recently that he’s not in a rush to take at-bats away from potential longer-term options. The Royals recently brought Michael Saunders in on a minor league pact and continue to face some outfield uncertainty, but GM Dayton Moore has stressed that the economic component of any signing is critical to them right now. (Put another way: CarGo is probably too expensive for them.)
Best remaining fits: Orioles, Rockies, White Sox, Royals
9. Jon Jay
Jay doesn’t bring any power to the table and isn’t a great center fielder, but he’s a solid on-base guy that can be used at all three outfield slots. He hits left-handed but without a significant platoon split, and he’s been an average or better overall hitter each season in the Majors except his ugly 2015 campaign (by measure of OPS+ and wRC+).
Perhaps that means he’s not an ideal starter, but he’d make for a useful fourth outfielder or something slightly more — similar to the manner in which the Cubs used him last year when he received 433 plate appearances. He’d fit the Orioles’ desire for a lefty outfielder — the center-field capability also helps there — and he’d perhaps be more affordable for the Royals than Gonzalez. The Tigers could use him as a fourth outfielder, or he could be a stopgap for the Braves until Ronald Acuna reaches the Majors. The Marlins were linked to him before they signed Cameron Maybin, but he still makes some sense there. And I could see him landing with the Nationals if they view him as an upgrade over Brian Goodwin as a fourth outfielder.
Best remaining fits: Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Braves, Marlins, Nationals
Collusion!!!
(No)
No, but unsigned mediocre FA = collusion in 2018.. *sigh*
Did you just respond to yourself?
Are you responding to yourself again?
you said the same thing twice.
Consider the 2nd post, an extension of my 1st.
Go away, Troll (or Boras)
Xabial, don’t feed the troll. He may grow lol.
Thanks, CowboysoldierFTW.
That makes me feel better about his 4 upvotes. : )
Where did all the drama go?
Yea, there were like 30 more comments.
But they kept the one that set the guy off. It’s a conspiracy…
Not clear what the rationale for deleting that portion of the thread was. Don’t recall any obvious rules violations, although I may have missed something. Sure looks like an arbitrary choice.
And no explanation. So, we should all be sure not to do whatever it was we did that got that subthread removed. Not sure why deleting a lengthy subthread without a word of explanation is considered acceptable here, that would have gotten me abused, fired or both during my gigs behind the curtain. Kinda frustrating when I know my comments weren’t the problem yet they are removed anyway. Bad job, MLBTR. No cookie for you.
Yea I came here for a chuckle earlier and saw they were probably pulled. I don’t know why xabial kept commenting so much he just seemed to be digging himself deeper and deeper.
Probably to protect business interests, and protect mlbtr from looking like the cesspool of the YouTube comment section.
But If that guy comes at me again, the outcome will be different.
Xabial,
“ . . . the outcome will be different.”
Take a chill pill. First of all, aren’t there enough internet tough guys already? Second, it really isn’t wise to publicly announce your intentions like that. Sure, if you feel the need to stand up for yourself in the future you’re gonna do it. But announcing it like that makes it look like you are seeking a confrontation. Doesn’t look good and doesn’t work well in practice.
Pick your shots. Wait until your adversary does something stupid—almost everyone does at some point—then pounce. Plus, it should come as a surprise to all when you do.
And, stop talking about ratings fercrissakes. Nobody cares about them but you. I suspect there may be a couple of people who downvote your comments just to set you off. And it works every time.
Really, I don’t care how many up or down votes you get, just shut up about it. You shouldn’t care either, but that’s up to you.
“ . . . the cesspool of the YouTube comments section.”
You must be new to the internets. There is much, much worse than this.
Final thought: Don’t go looking for trouble. Let it find you 😉
Your pal, majorflaw
Some of these guys aren’t mediocre! But then they still believe they’re worth $100mil+ for 4 years!
So basically.. the Phillies are getting everyone who’s relevant still? I like this game
Angels need Holland in my opinion
I like the Red Sox as a dark horse too, if he settles for set up role
Red Sox make no sense. They have a good pen already and they are only 7-8 million from having a draft pick pushed back. Also there are probably 5-7 much better choices where he could close.
I mean he did say dark horse
Tampa Bay Rays would love to get Walker to play second for a pillow deal!!!!!
brewers need Alex Cobb and would be nice to bring back a fan favorite in Lucroy
Would rather see Walker brought back over Lucroy.
Why not both?
I was thinking Lynn and Walker would be a boon for the Brew-crew.
>Why not both?
Because the excitement of bringing back both Lucroy and Walker, plus the stress of winning ot losing games eleven to nine, would give me a heart attack before I would get to find out if my team made it to the postseason
Lol…. Nice!!
D-backs as an option for Holland seems very wrong; they already have Bradley, Boxberger and Hirano competing for the closer role.
Angels, Brewers, and Twins should be in all in giving where thier payrolls and teams are at. I think the twins should go for one of the starters, the Brewers should go after one of them, Holland, and or maybe Walker, and the Angels make a ton of sense for either Holland or any of the remaining pitchers.
Twins are already at franchise record payroll, not going to add 15 million or more that it would take to sign these guys
But even still they are not anywhere close to the top of the league. Mauers contract is off the books after this year. Sign Lynn or Cobb is not going to kill them.
You realize their market can’t support anywhere near a “close to the top of the league” payroll, right? And they already spend 50-55% of their revenue on payroll, which is more than the Yankees.
Think before you post…
They don’t have to go to Dodgers/Red Sox/Yankees levels. There is no point in adding players and payroll if you are going to roll out a mediocre rotation. Now is the time for them to spend, Santana, Hughes, and Mauer will all be off the books sooner then later.
The point is their payroll is already quite high given their revenue/market.
Lynn doesn’t move the needle and get them from playoff contender to WS threat. And their roster is just emerging from a rebuild, they’re far better off waiting a year or two for their emerging arms on the farm to come up before making any sort of “win now all in” type play. Their window is just now opening, not closing.
Windows are short. No need to waste them.
Windows are actually very predictable, when you look at players age, development potential, and contract durations. Twins have alot more young talent on the upside (controllable for 3-6 years to come) than veterans studs on the decline (or expiring contracts).
If you honestly think the Twins window is now, and not 2018-2023, we’re just operating on 2 very different planets and there’s no reason bothering to debate it.
What? How in the world are windows predictable? You never know who is going to pan out, who is going to get hurt, or what other teams are going to do. Also 2018 is now, so you are contradicting yourself. We have no idea where the twins will be in 2021 or 2023. The whole reason for a small market team to go for it is because unlike he Red Sox or Dodgers, they can’t sustain huge payrolls for long periods. That is why now is a good time to spend, when there are bargins to be made. They already made two of the best signings this offseason ( LOMO and Reed) why not add a pitcher that actually gives them a chance vs the Indians. You are a twins fan, don’t you want to win?
It’s really not that hard. “Does a team have lots of young controllable talent in the pipeline?” If yes, they’ve got a strong window of contention ahead of them. The entire concept of rebuilds is predicated on the notion that, yes, contention windows are generally foreseeable. And once you have more departing/declining talent than up-and-comers, the window is closing. Given contract structures, it’s pretty easy to look out 3-5 years into the future.
Projection volatility (injuries, players exceeding expectations, etc) don’t fundamentally change the big picture very much.
Lol revenue sharing kiddo the owners want the money for them self’s
Steve, it says eight, but list ten.
The Cards getting Moustakas would be cool, but I don’t see it happening.
What for? He’s not good. He’d be a great platoon player to go with Gyorko…but that’s the only way he’s useful.
What do you want him to do? Play center?
I agree. There’s absolutely no reason for the Cardinals to waste money and a draft pick on a downgrade over what they already have in Carpenter (who was playing hurt last year) and Gyorko. Why in the world would they push Gyorko to the bench when he’s younger, gets on base more, has almost as much power, and plays better defense than Moose?
Because Gyorko’s ability is completely reliant on play time, in which he can’t exceed half a season without falling apart. That’d allow Carpenter to be a first where he’s best defensively, Martinez can fill in when his back snaps in two for the third time, and Gyorko can play any other position in the infield. Sounds fine to me. Cardinals have 3 picks before the 70th pick (I believe) so if you’re going to use one, might as well use it while they have an extra.
He definitely does not have nearly as much power as Moustakas.
Also I wouldn’t say he is better defensively as this was Gyorko’s only good defensively season and Moustakas’ only really bad one
Cardinals could really use the guys they are listed with here but they won’t get any of them because of reasons.
They should get Holland and bring Lynn back. Moose on a 1 year deal is intriguing but probably not necessary.
Arrieta is going to be way too expensive for what he represents….possibly a 1 win marginal upgrade…and a guy that would push someone possibly just as good to the bullpen. Depth is great, but they already have a full rotation plus Reyes and Flaherty….and a bunch of other guys rising quickly that will be to see if they can step in by 2019.
Not really. They aren’t interested in moving any of their current rotation pieces to the bullpen, while Moose is actually a downgrade compared to Gyorko. Holland would certainly be useful, though.
Lucroy autocorrects on my iPhone to Lucrative. Kinda funny. But he would likely still get plenty of starts in Toronto with the inevitable Martin injury. Sign him for 3 or 4 years at a discount and he can take over for Martin when his contract is up.
2 year deal max, IMO. An option for a third maybe but do we really want a guy for who is 31 and two of his last three years have been less than impressive for 3 or 4 guaranteed years – I don’t. Unless it is a team friendly deal.
I do agree that Martin has been injury prone and would agree that he probably will have some time on the DL this year so it would be nice to have someone who can hit, unlike Maile.
Having 20 million on the DL half the year with no real plan outside of Luke Maile and saying you want to compete isn’t smart either. Depends really what Lucroy will command at this point. He’s still younger than Martin. Lucroy would be the best available option to fill that gap. Last year I lost track of how many options they tried. Wasn’t Saltalamacchia the one out of training camp? It’s been a revolving door of sub-par backup catchers. Never thought I’d say it…but I miss Josh Thole.
I think they have a plan and that would be Jansen plus McGuire. Time to see what they have in the prospect pool that they keep talking up instead of blocking them out or trading them to purchase old declining talent for three to four years.
Fair. But then why aren’t they the backup over Maile? Is Maile really the best option of those 3?
Service time
The other two have options. Best case scenario is one of them wins the backup spot. McGuire fits on the offensive side better because he bats LH and the Jays are RH dominate and have been for like 5 yrs despite them saying they want a more balanced lineup.
Most teams just want their backup catcher to be defensively sound.
Reality is the Jays have been god awful at developing ML quality catchers. They’ve had several the last couple years. JP, d’aruad, Jimenez, pentacost should will probably prevent him from being an impact catcher. Jansen looks like the next hope and the scouting reports on him don’t really view him as a high ceiling guy. After it’s Danner and his highest level is rookie ball.
Do bluejays fan realize all backup catchers pretty much suck. Look around the league or play fantasy baseball there’s barely 12 useable catchers in a standard league. All backup catchers hit like pitchers
Do fans of other teams realize just how much Maile sucks?
Jays fans complain about the backup catcher every year unless the guy has a .280 batting avg. and yes they all use batting avg as their go to stat. They constantly complained about Goins as well. They pick the one or two guys on the team who aren’t on the team because of their bat and say this guy sucks, get rid of him he’s the reason we lost. When in reality it was the multiple players making 20 mil plus who went 0-4 with 3 k’s and had 6 guys LOB.
Jays fans are well aware of the high-payroll guys that aren’t pulling their weight, and there’s only two of them that make 20.
Goins was terrible, as was Barney, and nobody likes Morales either, which is perfectly valid since all of them posted a negative WAR.
Lucroy is a huge upgrade from Martin
Having 30 mil committed to catching doesn’t seem smart or likely
I wonder if Houston would spend $5-7 mill on Carlos Gonzalez and use him in left. The Marisnick/Fisher/Marwin platoon seems underwhelming.
I wonder if the Astros could trade fisher plus prospects for Realmuto and then sign CarGo?
Thinking Holland on a 2 year deal would be nice for Houston
Wouldn’t it be odd to give up a second round draft pick, as well as international signing $, for 2 years of a guy?
The A’s and Lucroy obviously makes since, but I’m surprised to not see the A’s as a fit for Lynn
Why would they be a fit for Lynn? When was the last time they spent big on a free agent pitcher? ( or anyone) Also they are at best the 4th best team in the AL West, maybe even 5th.
You simply don’t like the A’s if you honestly think the rangers are better and it’s even questionable to say the mariners are better than the A’s
I said they would be the 4th team. Rangers pitching is awful but at A’s is nothing to write home about. Mariners could fight for the wild card, A’s will not.
I would agree, the A’s rotation looks like nothing special on paper. They do not have a clear cut ace but I feel Puk will become an ace. Graveman is a much better pitcher than people give him credit for, Manaea is not an ace but a very solid #2, Mengden and Blackburn has nice rookie seasons, and Cotton could become a very nice middle rotation pitcher with an excellent changeup. Plus the A’s depth for the rotation is decent. Another dark horse candidate with power stuff, Frankie Montas
I think the A’s offense is much better than the mariners offense. I know They still have Cruz and Cano but those two are getting old now. Mariners rotation is not any better than the A’s. Yes, they have Paxton but Hernandez is starting to go down hill and just got hurt in spring. The rest of the rotation is not great. So, I say the A’s are better
No, they are not better than the Mariners or the Rangers. Sorry
come on Billy Bean bring back CarGo
Beane*.
Bean is the former Tigers outfielder who is now MLB’s “Inclusion Ambassador” since him coming out of the closet apparently qualifies him for the position.
Wny wouldn’t that qualify him for the position?
jon jay may not statistically be a great center fielder, but he made some highlight reel catches when he was in st. louis. not great, but well above average, stats don’t show everything.
Highlights can be deceptive. Often times they’d be a routine play for a superior defender. For instance, an awesome diving catch by Jay may be a can of corn for Buxton, because the latter has such better range.
2/48 Arrieta Brewers who says no? Im guessing Arrieta. Some of these guys could make more money if they take higher aav shorter deals but you know they have to actually bet on themselves and perform so naturally agents hate that.
If I’m the Brewers I’m offering Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn similar higher aav two year deals. Cobb scares me still if I gotta pay him like 17 mil a yr. I’d be putting some incentives on starts and you can say well he won’t sign well then that’s fine. Worst thing these GMs can do now is cave and give these guys the extra yrs. none of these guys left will make a tangible difference in making or not making the playoffs so let someone else overpay for them.
No need to guess, it’s Arrieta.
Been rumored that Philly has been willing to go to 3 years at a higher AAV but he’s holding out for more years, so no way he takes 2. He doesn’t want to hit the open market again when he’s a couple years older.
Arrieta
Once again, $48 million, a second round draft pick, and lost international signing money is an awful lot to pay for 2 years of Jake Arrieta. I think the club says no for sure
Jake Arrieta Nationals
Moustakes Royals
Lance Lyne Phillies
Greg Holland Cardinals
Alex Cobb Brewers
Jonathan Lucroy brewers or As
Neal Walker brewers or Tigers
Carlos Gonzalez Rockies
jon Jay Braves
I don’t know which is worse. Is it your spelling or your predictions?
Problem with these free agents are they they just aren’t good enough (and didn’t even have random huge years last year to make them appear good enough) to justify all of high AAV, many years, and giving up a draft pick, all of which will required for or are being demanded by Arrietta, Holland, Moustakas, Lynn, and Cobb.
Here’s one idea:
Arrietta: 6/$100m. To save face and try to spin the offseason into a win, Arrietta/Boras accepts a nine-figure contract, even though the AAV is way way less than he was looking for. He at least gets the security of the a lot of years. No opt outs, no downside for team of an opt out off of a bounceback Cy Young season. Worse case (and maybe likely) scenario they get a lot of innings. Best case is contract is a great value. Lower AAV keeps them under the tax so works for Angels. Maybe even stretch it out to 7 years if the Angels play hardball, but it’s all about the nine figures and long term and nice situation to go to and lack of attractive offers for Boras/Arrietta.
Maybe if its significantly front loaded.
Reason phillies dont want to go over 3 years is because they dont want to owe him a dime past 2020
Another one I like is Lucroy to the Astros on a multi=year deal. Lets them carry three catchers, he can fill at first for a while, he gives them a little security at the position for the coming years as Gattis is in his walk year and McCann has a high value option for next year and there is talk he wants to go back to Atlanta. Lucroy gets to go a WS favorite, opportunity to transition back to a starting role even if he isn’t handed it, gets to expand his positional versatility, gets a multiyear deal though not for great money. Say 3/$22m. Good amount of upside for the team, not a whole lot of down.
Especially with the injury to Yuri (who had a good year last year, but not typical 1B production). Also gives a chance to play McCann at 1B more and save his knees.
Got “Orioles” listed a lot, there. Think they open their wallets on any of these guys?
doubt it
Holland is the name the surprises me the most. I wouldn’t sign him on as a closer but I think any team could consider him a solid middle reliever.
If Boras doesn’t get Holland more than he reportedly turned down to return to Colorado, then it’s a major fail on both the agent’s and player’s parts.
It will be interesting to see if Boras can pull a rabbit out of a hat on that one. He HAS done it before.
Not sure how there’s a clear fit with the Angels for Arrieta. They have like 8 MLB caliber starters, and Arrieta most likely fits in with most of them talent wise if he continues his current trajectory (if he’s better, than probably only for a year or so). Why would they want an old guy declining compared to the 6 young guys on the way up?
He is better then anyone they have,
Not better than Richards, Otani, Bridwell and Shoemaker (if completely healthy) . That leaves Heany, Skaggs and Ramirez. No room for Jake.
The Angels six man rotation was not for Otani. With most of the staff coming off T. J. surgery, they would be limited to total innings pitched this season and that works perfect for Otani.
What world are you living in? He is better then Birdwell, Shoemaker and Richards.. Otani has yet to even pitch an MLB Game. Calm down there buddy…
He was on par statistically with half of the pitchers on the roster, all of whom are under 30 and still improving.
I’m calm. I saw how great Richards was before injury and Shoemaker the same. As far as all of them are concerned, they’re all 5-8 years young than old Jake.
Where he needs to go is the Dodgers. Their staff after Kershaw is extremely iffy.
Yes he is. He isn’t great anymore. But he is by no means bad. He would be their ace most likely.
because they are more realistic with their evaluation of that rotation.
How is my evaluation of their rotation not realistic? Statistically, the Angels have 3 guys that put up very similar numbers to him last year, and he’s obviously a guy getting older and on the decline.
As a start… by not using a 1 year sample for their entire evaluation
Even if that were true, just how many of those guys are going to stay healthy all season?
At the right price there are some potentially useful players there. But the right price is going to be hard to define. This is exactly what the owners were hoping for–enough established players left out in the cold so that next year, FA’s will accept more opening and early bids. Not suggesting this is collusion. Just a happy turn of events for ownership
Arrieta 32
Moustakas 29
Lynn 31
Holland 32
Cobb 30
Lucroy 32
Walker 32
CarGo 32
Jay 33
The numbers next to the players are the ages (taken from the MLBTR list) that those players will play at during the 2018 season.
With the exception of Moustakas, is it any wonder why MLB front offices don’t want to dole out the contract lengths these players are reportedly seeking?
Take a look at the remaining FAs on the list. There are 57 of them.
3 of the 62 are under the age of 30.
7 will be 30 years old.
9 will be 31 or 32 years old
12 will be 33 or 34 years old
26 will be 35 years old or older.
Collusion?
No collusion the GMs are just wising up
There’s also the facts that so many teams are either tanking or trying to reset their luxury tax penalties this season.
Neil Walker, The Pittsburgh Kid, back to the Pirates. Get rid of Harrison if he doesn’t want to play here
The irony of these Borass clients with their overly inflated agent values still dreaming of too much$$$
>Twins offering Lynn 30% less pay than the QO he rejectrd for double the work
Brutal.
I wouldnt mind seeing Walker on the Tigers, but in the first year of rebuilding, and after the underwhelming returns from trading Upton, Kinsler, and even JDM, I have to think the better draft pick position is more valuable than anything Walker would return at the deadline. I dont think Johnstone is a fit at all. With Victor taking up a roster spot as dh only, there are not many bench spots, and I see their rule 5 pick, Reyes, making the team.
Arrieta – Brewers should offer 5/115, opt out after year 2, massively front-loaded (30mm+) for years 1 and 2. If he’s great, fair value for MIL. If he doesn’t opt, it’s not too much of a millstone for them.
Holland – Cubs should offer something like 2/28. Relievers age better than their starter counterparts. If he can do well for 2 seasons, he’d be in line for maybe a 3-4 year deal afterwards.
Cobb/Lynn – Offer a “prove it” deal (maybe 1/12-15) with a hefty assignment bonus for a trade; next year’s FA bonanza is light on pitching (outside of Kershaw)
Lucroy – If Washington isn’t willing to pony up for Realmuto, a one year/10 mm deal is the least they can do. Wieters is just….terrible.
Moustakas – I just don’t know about him. Maybe the Royals offer 5/50 for him to be the face of the franchise, otherwise maybe ATL should offer 1/12 with a decent assignment bonus on trade)
Why would Cobb or Lynn Take a 1 year deal at this point?
They may have no choice. Their unrealistic greed has come back to bite them.
Moustakas should be 8th or 9th on this list. One dimensional offensive skill set, body type that won’t age well, limited to one position defensively.
You think he’s worse than Jon Jay and CarGo? After the year he had, and the year they had? That’s ridiculous.
I think as far as earning power goes he should be in the middle, after the pitchers but before Cargo, Lucray, Jay, and Walker.
This happened in football too. At a certain point teams are screwing up and giving huge deals that never pan out. That’s why nfl rookies got their rookie scale contracts and why rbs don’t get paid anymore.
Remember when in previous years that there were stars in the free agent classes?
Teams are tying up their guys leaving (except for a few) one dimensional older players.
Let’s face it. The Nats and Orioles should have tied up their guys.
Funny that Cards name is on several of these top remaining guys but they will most certainly not get anyone.
Mozeliak is saving his “dry powder”
Or is it, Mo money in DeWallet?
Why don’t people understand that Lynn’s peripherals dropped in his first year back from Tommy John Surgery like, you know, the large majority of pitchers who have had the procedure! There’s no reason no to expect those numbers to bounce back close to his career numbers going forward, which makes him a very good #2-#3 starter.
Anyway, the Cardinals won’t sign him to a multi-year deal and keep blocking the kids like Reyes and Flaherty, but I could see them bringing him back on a 1-year deal at a salary around the qualifying offer he rejected if his market falls that far.
When did below average ball players begin to think they are worth a multi year deals for 70-80 million and up type of money then they wonder and scream collusion when they don’t get it…. good ridence learn your lesson and let’s play ball without them
When did you decide the best use of your time is to help billionaire owners line their pockets a little more?
This is what guys/gals like you refuse to understand:
I can’t speak for redsoxrob, but in my POV you are reducing the argument to an “us vs. them” – “players vs. owners”, and project that on to us.
Personally, I would love it if the Phillies – my team – could sign Jake Arrieta to a 7 year deal and he could repeat his CYA season for all 7 years.
It would be awesome.
But do you realistically think that will happen? Of course not, it’s nuts. But here’s the problem you don’t seem to be willing to acknowledge:
It’s more likely that Arrieta on a 7 year deal hurts the team’s ability to compete in future years. So does that make sense from a baseball perspective?
I don’t care what percentage of revenue the players get and I definitely DGAS whether the owners make money.
I want to see a competitive team – EVERY year.
If my team can sign Arrieta to 7/210 and he’s worth it every year, I’m happy.
But, if the more likely occurs – that he’s dead money the last years of the contract – then I want no part of it because my team can’t use the money to sign other players to be more competitive.
Point: It’s not about us vs. them or players vs. owners.
It’s about the player salary money being spent as productively as possible every year. Teams have figure out that long-term contracts to less than generational players are a huge risk.
Over time and over CBAs, if the union and owners are smart they’ll shift the money to earlier in guys careers without a labor stoppage.
I’m just not sure both sides are smart enough to do it.
My gut feeling is that the Red Sox will make a play at Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb after the draft in June. I believe there is no compensation required after that draft.
If anyone knows the compensation answer please respond.
The Red Sox have SP issues even though that isn’t being discussed in the press.
Out of their 5 SP they can only count on Sale and Porcello for 200 innings.
They have NO 5th SP even though they have many “mediocre to poor” candidates. And yes I know ERod is coming back but he’s always “coming back” from his knee.
Their 4th SP Pomeranz is a coin flip with elbow tendinitis and with a history of this.
Price, their #3 SP can’t be counted on.
But even if Price comes through their rotation is their Achilles heel.
If the Red Sox are serious about winning a WS, and not just limping into a playoff spot like 2017, they need to add Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb.
It’s not likely a good SP will be available at the trade deadline in August and if so who? Hamels?, Keuchel (not likely)?, Bumgarner (not likely)?, Carasco (not likely)?.
There is no way they can win a WS with the current SP rotation barring Price proving me “totally” wrong. And don’t forget Price sucks in the playoffs.