Archives for May 2018

West Notes: Ross, Rockies, Beltre, Gonzales

By Steve Adams | May 24, 2018 at 10:42pm CDT

Tyson Ross spoke recently with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune about the likelihood that he’ll be traded by the Padres at some point in the near future. Ross spoke like a pitcher who is anticipating that he’ll be traded, though he notes that his experience with the Padres in 2015 taught him that there are no certainties. That season, Ross was considered to be among the top trade assets in baseball, but the Padres held onto him — a decision GM A.J. Preller likely regrets, given that Ross was injured for the whole 2016 season and ultimately released. “I was one of the bigger names being thrown around as a trade piece,” Ross said of that 2015 campaign. “A.J. held on to me. He didn’t get his return on that. If he wants to make a move at some point, that’s the game. For him, it would be a great investment — buy low, sell high.”

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a look at Ross and another pair of Padres starters, Clayton Richard and Jordan Lyles, and explored their trade candidacy as the summer approaches. Ross, right now at least, looks like a rare thoracic outlet surgery success story; in 60 1/3 innings he’s notched a 3.13 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9 and a 44.1 percent ground-ball rate.

A few more notes from the game’s Western divisions…

MLB.com’s Thomas Harding addresses a number of Rockies-related issues in his latest Inbox column, writing that while fans are champing at the bit to see Brendan Rodgers in the Majors, it may very well that infield prospect Garrett Hampson beats the more highly-touted Rodgers to the big leagues. Rodgers is still just 21 and has yet to play in Triple-A, Harding notes, while Hampson was recently promoted to Triple-A, has experience hitting leadoff and has a strong history of on-base skills. With DJ LeMahieu on the shelf, that skill set holds some appeal to the organization. Harding also looks at what could be a challenging trade deadline for Jeff Bridich as he looks to improve an inconsistent offense, though he adds that he isn’t hearing any indication that the Rox are aggressively exploring the trade market just yet. Of course, in late May, that’s hardly an uncommon stance for any team.
Adrian Beltre hasn’t made a decision about his future beyond the 2018 season, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, though he’s open about the fact that he’s not looking to play for several years beyond 2018. Asked if he had any desire to play to age 45 like his countryman Bartolo Colon, Beltre joked, “My wife would divorce me.” For now, the Rangers third baseman is merely focused on getting healthy enough to return to the field, and Wilson notes that the current plan is for the 39-year-old to return to the lineup in about two weeks’ time. Whether Beltre will finish out the season in Texas remains to be seen as well, of course, as he’s already come up as a potential trade candidate should he return to the lineup in good health and avoid further trips to the DL.
Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales chatted with Corey Brock of The Athletic in an interesting Q&A about his return from Tommy John surgery, the process of reestablishing trust in his curveball and his use of data and analytics. The 26-year-old said he feels like this is “the best curveball I’ve had in my career,” explaining that because he’s largely recovered from TJ surgery, his grip strength is improved and he can throw from his natural arm slot. Gonzales, though, added that he doesn’t feel that he (or any other pitcher) can ever say he’s 100 percent recovered from such a major surgery. “It’s a constant job,” Gonzales said of managing his recovery. “And it’s something I take a lot of pride in, getting my arm ready each day. It’s 45 minutes worth of stuff each day to make sure I’m feeling good. Even on days when I don’t need to do it, I still do it because it helps me feel secure. I think that’s what the rehab process did: give me some pride and some conviction in how I go about my routine.” Gonzales has turned in a 4.05 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate in 53 1/3 innings this season, with FIP (3.22) and xFIP (3.20) looking even more favorably upon his work.

AL Central Notes: Sano, Giolito, Tigers

By Steve Adams | May 24, 2018 at 9:06pm CDT

The Twins announced Thursday that they’ve reinstated Miguel Sano from the disabled list after a 24-game absence due to a hamstring strain. Outfielder Jake Cave, whom the team acquired in a spring swap with the Yankees, has been optioned back to Triple-A Rochester to clear a spot on the active roster for the slugging third baseman. Sano played a five-game rehab assignment in Rochester and homered twice, showing the club enough to bring him back to the big league roster. Eduardo Escobar has filled in ably at the hot corner (.261/.313/.478 in Sano’s absence), though by plugging Sano back into the lineup, Escobar can shift back over to shortstop and push light-hitting defensive specialist Ehire Adrianza (.220/.287/.297 this year) back into a utility role. Minnesota is three games below .500 but sits just two games out of first place in what has been a feeble AL Central division so far in 2018.

Epstein: Machado Speculation “In Fantasy Land At This Point”

By Steve Adams | May 24, 2018 at 7:15pm CDT

There’s been plenty of buzz about the Orioles’ poor start to the season and the impending free agency of Manny Machado, with seemingly countless reports connecting Machado to various teams throughout the league. The Cubs have been perhaps the most oft-cited match for Machado, but in a radio appearance on the Mully & Hanley show on 670 The Score, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein scoffed at the very notion that there’s any serious market taking shape for Machado at such an early juncture in the season.

“I understand it’s natural for people to connect the dots and there to be this kind of frenzy from time to time, but it’s honestly something we’re looking at and just rolling our eyes at,” said Epstein. “It’s not like July, where every now and then there’s lots of coverage on deals that are actually being discussed or actually might happen. This one is just out there in fantasy land at this point.”

Addison Russell, in particular, has been an oft-suggested component of Machado trade scenarios (FanRag’s Jon Heyman suggested that match last week, for instance). But Epstein noted that when he sees rumors that appear to be “hyper-focused on one player and if there’s essentially nothing to it,” he’ll typically pull the player aside and explain as much in a one-on-one conversation. While he didn’t outright say that he’s done so with Russell, Epstein strongly suggested that to be the case, and Russell himself told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney over the weekend that he’s paying little heed to the chatter. Elaborating further, Epstein described the amount of trade discussion that’s taken place so far as “essentially nil.”

There’s been no shortage of rumors pertaining to Machado, though the connection with the Cubs has always been a fairly obvious one. Machado was, after all, reported to be a target of the Cubs this offseason, and Russell was said to be a potential component of those talks all the way back in December when Baltimore initially began fielding offers for him.

There’s no recent precedent for a trade of this magnitude taking place in May, and it’s even rare for such transactions to take place in June. The White Sox’ acquisition of James Shields in 2016 is the most recent example of an early-June swap of any real significance. Russell himself was traded from Oakland to Chicago in 2014’s Jeff Samardzija blockbuster, and even that July 4 swap was an uncharacteristically early agreement for a deal of such import.

In a similar vein, recent reports indicating that the Rangers and Royals are preparing to gauge trade interest in their current assets suggest that such processes are only in the nascent stages. It’d be a surprise if the Orioles were drastically further along in the process, if for no other reason than the fact that most teams have not yet plotted their deadline trajectory.

Most clubs, to this point, are focused on the upcoming amateur draft, after which they’ll begin to truly assess whether they’re interested in acquiring assets, selling them, or utilizing players on their current big league roster to address other needs. (Increasingly, there are active teams at each deadline that don’t fall neatly into the traditional “buyer” or “seller” categories.)

There will undoubtedly be teams that don’t make that final determination until even the day of the deadline. Last year’s Twins, for instance, acquired Jaime Garcia from the Braves in late July, only to lose six of their next seven games while the Royals and Indians went on prolonged winning streaks. Minnesota ultimately traded Garcia to the Yankees just six days after acquiring him and also shipped closer Brandon Kintzler off to the Nationals.

All of that is to say, it’s highly improbable that a clearly defined market for Machado will come together at any point the near future. Perhaps a team with an obvious need on the left side of the infield will bowl the Orioles over with an offer earlier than most would expect, but history gives little reason to expect that to happen until the calendar flips to July.

A Machado trade to some team, of course, feels inevitable at this point. But while the Cubs stand out as a plausible on-paper fit — just as they did throughout the offseason — Epstein’s comments bluntly indicate that such speculation won’t come to fruition for quite some time, if at all.

Red Sox To Activate Dustin Pedroia

By Steve Adams | May 24, 2018 at 4:42pm CDT

The Red Sox will activate second baseman Dustin Pedroia from the disabled list on Friday, manager Alex Cora told reporters this afternoon (Twitter link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe). While the team didn’t announce a corresponding move, Abraham notes that neither Eduardo Nunez nor Brock Holt seems to be in danger of losing his roster spot to clear way for Pedroia, based on Cora’s comments.

Pedroia, 34, has yet to take the field for the Sox this season thanks to offseason surgery to address a cartilage issue in his left knee. In his absence, Nunez has shouldered the bulk of the workload at second base, though he’s posted a disappointing .243/.261/.361 slash through 177 trips to the plate. As a whole, Boston second basemen are slashing just .241/.269/.361, so Pedroia’s return will be a welcome one, should he be able to manage anything even close to his recent levels of production at the big league level.

[Related: Boston Red Sox depth chart]

While Pedroia, of course, isn’t the superstar that he was early in his career when he won American Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player honors in successive seasons (2007-08), he’s remained a productive player throughout his early 30s, slashing .296/.360/.415 in 2195 plate appearances across the past four seasons. Last year, he slashed a roughly league-average .293/.369/.392 in 463 PAs.

It’s certainly possible that there’ll be some rust to be shaken off, as Pedroia went 1-for-14 with three walks in a minor league rehab assignment with the Red Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in Pawtucket. Results aside, however, Pedroia has played consecutive days at second base on two occasions now and has clearly shown enough that the organization feels him capable of stepping back into the big league lineup. Off days may be more frequent for him early on as he eases back into the rigors of an everyday schedule, but provided his knee is indeed healthy, he should provide a notable boost to an already dangerous lineup once he gets back up to speed.

Nationals To Select Justin Miller

By Steve Adams | May 24, 2018 at 4:00pm CDT

The Nationals are set to select the contract of veteran right-handed reliever Justin Miller prior to tomorrow’s game against the Marlins, reports Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. As Janes recently reported, the 30-year-old Miller had a June 15 opt-out provision in his minor league contract. The Nats have a vacancy on their 40-man roster at present, so they’ll need only to clear a space on the 25-man roster, which they achieved by optioning right-hander Erick Fedde back to Syracuse.

Miller enjoyed a solid season with the Rockies in 2015 (4.05 ERA, 38 strikeouts, 11 walks in 33 1/3 innings), but he has little Major League track record outside of that, owning a lifetime 4.99 ERA in 88 1/3 big league frames. That said, one would be hard pressed to suggest that the journeyman is anything less than wholly deserving a promotion to the Majors based on his utter dominance at the game’s top minor league level this season. In 13 2/3 innings with Syracuse, Miller is unscored upon and has turned in a ridiculous 23-to-3 K/BB ratio with a 45 percent grounder rate.

[Related: Washington Nationals depth chart]

Miller’s heater sat in the 93-94 mph range in his previous stints with the Rockies from 2015-16, though Janes notes that his velocity has trended up in the minors this season. And even if he’s struggled to prevent runs in the Majors to this point in his career, he’s never had much issue in the way of missing bats. Miller posted a 13.5 percent swinging-strike rate in that aforementioned 2015 season and carries a career 10.5 percent mark in that regard during his limited MLB time.

The Nats are currently carrying a seven-man bullpen, so the arrival of Miller will push the team to an eight-deep relief corps. He’ll join closer Sean Doolittle and a bullpen unit that also consists of Brandon Kintzler, Shawn Kelley, Sammy Solis, Tim Collins, Trevor Gott and Wander Suero for the time being.

MLBTR Chat Transcript: Cardinals, Machado, Closers, Padres

By Jeff Todd | May 24, 2018 at 2:03pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

Royals Preparing To Make Players Available

By Jeff Todd | May 24, 2018 at 1:57pm CDT

The Royals are beginning to engage in some preliminary chatter with rivals in advance of the summer trade deadline, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Of course, that does not mean that any near-term dealing ought to be anticipated.

While GM Dayton Moore recently suggested the club would not make any decisions until the deadline is at hand, he struck a somewhat different tone in commenting for this report. Moore tells Heyman that, “when a team isn’t performing as well as they’d like, it makes sense to be open-minded concerning trade scenarios.”

To be sure, Moore also noted that he “wouldn’t say we are moving quickly on the trade front.” But it does seem that the preparatory work is underway to facilitate some degree of deadline sell-off. That’s hardly surprising given the Royals’ miserable 16-33 start and basement-dwelling status in the game’s worst division.

Surely, the Royals’ slate of pending free agents — including, most prominently, closer Kelvin Herrera and third baseman Mike Moustakas but also Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, Alcides Escobar, and Drew Butera — will be on the table. But the report indicates, and Moore seemingly affirms, that there’ll be at least a willingness to consider more than pure rental pieces.

It would remain stunning if the K.C. organization considered anything involving backstop Salvador Perez; frankly, there’s no reason at all to think he’d be available. Otherwise, the roster is not exactly loaded with established, high-performing, still-youthful assets. That said, 29-year-old second baseman Whit Merrifield is again hitting well and might be an interesting piece for a contender, though the asking price will surely reflect his solid play and remaining cheap control.

There are some other interesting pieces on hand, to be sure. But younger and/or less-established players such as starter Jakob Junis, reliever Brad Keller, and outfielder Jorge Soler don’t really seem like traditional deadline targets. Meanwhile, the team’s slate of higher-priced veterans on lengthier and larger contracts are not performing to their rates of pay.

MLB Releases Study On Home Run Rate

By Jeff Todd | May 24, 2018 at 1:33pm CDT

Major League Baseball has released a scientific study that was designed to examine “possible causes of the surge in home run rate in Major League Baseball in the past several years,” as its abstract puts it. The study itself is available at this link. Those interested in reading an independent breakdown should check out the assessment of the Baseball Prospectus team, which has covered this topic well for quite some time.

Per the report, the focus was on utilizing Statcast data and a variety of means of evaluating the physical properties of the game balls utilized in recent seasons. That follows years of increases in home runs — along with additional strikeouts and quite a few other changes in the game environment — that have led to accusations (increasingly supported by evidence and analysis) that some change to the game ball has occurred.

While the findings don’t suggest that there has been any change that increases the ball’s “launch conditions” — that is, the ball isn’t juiced — they do find that “aerodynamic properties of the baseballs have changed” in a manner that corresponds to the increase in batted-ball distance. In other words, balls are being struck in roughly the same manner, but are going further than previously.

That largely seems to confirm, then, that a recent change of some kind is the underlying cause of the homer boom — a major modification in the nature of the game that has caused changes with in-game tactics and drastically impacted player valuations. But the committee did not precisely identify the physical reason for the changes in flight characteristics, and in fact specifically found that the manufacturing process and materials weren’t the cause.

Interestingly, the study determined: “The yearly reduction in average drag, which accounts for the change in the home run rate, is small compared to the variation in drag among baseballs within a given year.” For that reason, perhaps, many of its suggested actions revolve around standardizing the factors that influence drag.

Certainly, readers will want to read through the entire report — or, at least, its essential findings. At this point, it’s not yet clear exactly how and when the league will pursue changes. But if there are systematic efforts to restore the baseball’s previous flight characteristics, that could portend yet more adjustments and changes to the marketplace, as it reacts to observed changes in game conditions and outcomes.

White Sox Claim Dustin Garneau

By Jeff Todd | May 24, 2018 at 12:35pm CDT

The White Sox have claimed catcher Dustin Garneau off waivers from the Athletics, per a club announcement. Righty Miguel Gonzalez was bumped to the 60-day DL to create a 40-man spot.

Garneau had just been designated for assignment. Now, he’ll head to Chicago to help bolster a catching unit that just lost starter Welington Castillo for much of the rest of the season.

The 30-year-old Garneau hasn’t played in the majors this year, but has appeared in 87 games over the past three seasons. He hasn’t hit much in his limited opportunities at the game’s highest level, and is carrying a paltry .208/.263/.333 batting line in 80 plate appearances this season at Triple-A, but at times he has posted quality offensive numbers in the upper minors.

Minor MLB Transactions: 5/24/18

By Jeff Todd | May 24, 2018 at 11:34am CDT

We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor moves:

The Indians have added righty Mitch Talbot on a minors deal, per MLBTR’s Steve Adams (via Twitter). He’ll join the rotation at Triple-A Columbus, taking the place of the recently promoted Adam Plutko. Talbot last appeared in the majors with the Indians way back in 2011 and had not been with an MLB organization since 2013. In the interim, he has pitched in the independent leagues and KBO. Last year, Talbot spun 110 innings of 3.03 ERA ball with 8.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 for the Sugar Land Skeeters.

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