The Rangers faced an uphill battle even before the season began, as they were chasing the defending World Series champions in the AL West. Now that the club is off to a 20-31 start, looking up at three other teams sporting winning records, it’s all but inevitable that the Texas organization will explore sales of veteran assets this summer.
There are a few interesting players to watch on the Rangers’ roster, with Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus certainly among them. But both of those veterans are currently situated on the DL, rather than the left side of the Texas infield, so it’s not the best time to look in at their market.
Instead, it’s southpaw Cole Hamels who seems the clearest possible trade piece at the moment. He’s a highly accomplished pitcher, with a resume that includes 16 postseason starts, who’s playing on an expiring contract. Through 58 2/3 innings on the season, Hamels owns a 3.38 ERA that’s nearly a spot-on match for his career average. While he’s no spring chicken at 34 years of age, that’s not much of a concern for a rental asset.
That’s not to say there aren’t any countervailing factors here. For one thing, Hamels wasn’t great last year, when he failed to record an ERA of 3.65 or below for the first time since way back in 2009. Even his 4.20 earned run mark, moreover, arguably required some good fortune. Hamels held opposing hitters to an unsustainable .251 batting average on balls in play. For the first time ever, he failed to record a double-digit swinging-strike rate (9.7% on the year) and struck out less than seven batters per nine (6.4). Hamels also hit the shelf for the first time in a long time owing to an early-season oblique injury.
There were some legitimate questions, then, entering the current season. Some, perhaps, have been answered. Though he missed eight starts in 2017, Hamels has otherwise been a paragon of durability, taking the ball thirty or more times in nine straight seasons (2008 through 2016). Unless something crops up between now and the trade deadline, teams will surely view Hamels as an excellent health bet over the final few months of the season.
But what kind of performance can be expected? In many regards, Hamels’s 2018 performance has encouraged. In particular, he has rebounded in terms of swings and misses (12.1% swinging strikes; 9.8 K/9). But there are some issues. Hamels has continued to hand out more free passes than he did earlier in his career. He has coughed up 1.69 homers per nine on a an 18.6% HR/FB rate. And he’s again benefiting from a low (.255) BABIP-against. The Statcast numbers indicate that opposing hitters have been unfortunate to record only a .317 wOBA, as their contact against him spits out a .352 xwOBA.
Taken together, it seems reasonable to view Hamels as a solid and reliable mid-rotation piece, but not a top-of-the-rotation arm. He’s producing a wide array of fielding-independent pitching numbers (4.94 FIP/4.12 xFIP/3.85 SIERA) thus far on the year, but all suggest that he’s more good than great at this stage.
Of greater importance, perhaps, is Hamels’s contract, which was originally signed with the Phillies just in advance of the 2012 trade deadline. The lefty is earning $22.5MM this season. Even if a contender feels that he’s worth every penny — which, as the above discussion suggests, may or may not quite be the case — that’s enough coin to be a potential stumbling block for teams that face luxury tax or other budgetary concerns.
There are some other contractual complications, too. The deal comes with a $20MM vesting/club option that carries a $6MM buyout. It’s not going to vest owing to the number of innings Hamels threw last year, but it’ll require some added financial wrangling nevertheless. An acquiring team could consider picking up Hamels at that rate for 2019, depending upon how the season shakes out, but also likely won’t want to sign up for the big buyout at the point of acquisition.
The Texas front office will not only have to sort out those matters, but will do so against the knowledge that Hamels has significant no-trade rights as well. He can be shipped to the Braves, Mariners, Phillies, Nationals, Rays, Cardinals, Cubs, Royals, and Astros without consent. Otherwise, the lefty will need to be consulted before a deal can be consummated. That may not necessarily prove a major stumbling block, but the presence of the option could come back into play if he’s not particularly interested in a certain locale for future seasons.
Certainly, the possibility for a tough-to-navigate situation does exist. While it still feels quite likely that Hamels will be dealt, it’s tough to say at this point exactly how it will come together.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Yanks will get him..
Didn’t Yank fans taunt and insult Hamels’ wife a few years back when she was seated at Yankee Stadium? Yanks are also on Hamels’ no trade list. Maybe for that very reason. About zero percent he goes there.
I swore the same thing happened to Cliff Lee’s family in the 2010 playoffs. And voila Lee decides not to sign with the Yankees in the off-season.
Yeah I think you are right. It was Lee, not Hamels. Although as his teammate, Hamels experienced that first hand. Could still be a significant reason why he’s blocked the Yankees on his trade list.
Lee is was, good memory guys!
enjoy the season..
He was just interviewed about potentially going to the Yankees and had nothing but good things to say. He seems interested. Sure, still ultimately unlikely it gets done, but I think it’ll be due more to his contract and the Yankees’ luxury tax concerns rather than bias on the part of the player.
scratcher, thank you!!!
Red that same report. It was linked here at mlbtr. I would say he’s open to the idea of going to the Yankees but wouldn’t say more than that.
All depends on the offer. The Yankees can make it work by including Ellsbury, money for the remaining years of his contract and significant prospects.
bruce, lol, that is why he told ny reporters he wouldnt mind..wake up..listen to the news
That was Lee
Hey Bruce…do you read?
Cole mentioned the Yankees recently with lots of flattery.
That’s what happens when an athlete realizes that their career is coming to a conclusion and that they want to WIN.
you rule MikeYank55
Makes so much sense that it won’t happen.
Do the angels make any sense?
Nope. Rangers don’t like to make inter-divisional trades. They’d have to be blown away by an offer to take it.
That’s not even true. Oakland is one of the most common trade partners for the Rangers. Texas has also gotten Josh Hamilton from the Angels and, in a very similar instance to this one, shipped Cliff Lee to Seattle for prospects.
The whole “not trading in division” is just a myth. There are certain teams that are traded with a lot more often than others, but there is no team that doesn’t trade in their own division. Besides, wouldn’t you rather take prospects from your rival and potentially use them to beat them for the next 6 years or so?
Lee went from Seattle to Texas not the other way around.
Only Yankees-Red Sox. As I recall, trades with them are so rare, the last one before the Stephen Drew-Kelly Johnson swap, occurred in 1997. Even Mets, are more frequent trade partners with Yankees, than Red Sox. And if I recall correctly, I believe when Doc Holliday (God rest his soul) was on the trade-block towards end of career, in a similar fashion to Hamels, Yanks were interested, but not if it meant paying premium Blue Jays wanted to convince them to trade within division, and Doc was ultimately traded fo the Phillies.
Significant Yankee-Red Sox trades:
Sale of Ruth, Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater and Mario Guerrero, Don Baylor for Mike Easler (hitman before Mattingly) and the sale of Mike Stanley
Remember how before the World Series, the Astros were regularly beaten like a rented mule by the Rangers, they had more fans of opposing teams at their own Minute Maid ballpark and they were so bad that they got kicked out of the National League? LMAO
Do you remember the Rangers losing two World Series and then not doing much of anything after that? Man I almost feel bad for you cuz they are gonna be bad for awhile…
LMAO Nelson Cruz in right field LMAO
Hamels and Diekman for Williams, Thompson, Eickhoff, and Alfaro. Get it done! Hamels going from a rebuilding team to a team in the hunt would fit perfectly. Seems like a good trade to me lol.
why would a contending Phillies trade years of control of core players for a half year of a declining hamels… makes absolutely no sense, horrible trade
He’s listing the exact same players who were in the Hamels trade the last time around when he went from Philly to Texas. It’s not a serious proposition.
Don’t forget Matt Harrison’s money…. But Hamels back to Philly might not be so far-fetched ..
I don’t think it’s far fetched at all, Hamels to Philly. I was having a little fun and clearly being facetious. Although it is kind of interesting to think the role reversals since that trade was made.
This is terrible.
Sprinkle in Alec Asher from Milwaukee and you got a deal!!
remember when Hamels vetoed a trade to the astros and then the next year we win the world series and the rangers are bottom dwellers…lol
It’s a moot point because there’s no guarantee that the Stros win the WS if that trade went down. It was never announced as to who the Stros agreed to send. For all we know it could’ve involved pieces that helped the Stros win. Then with Keuchel and Hamels maybe they don’t acquire Verlander at the 17′ deadline. Also……he vetoed that deal in 2015
Remember when he Astros were cellar dwellers for 10+ years. I know you do. It wasn’t that long ago
The Astro were irrelevant from 09-14 really outside of that they were somewhat competitive.what are you going on about 10+ years?
Yeah, shame on Hamels for not being able to look into the future to see this from happening! What an idiot!
He’d be sick on the Giants. throw him in at #3 when madbum and cueto get back
Lol! He wants to win.
Giants would love to have him, but his remaining salary would push them way over the luxury tax threshold.
The Braves make sense. They need a veteran to lead the staff if they are going to be serious. Similar situation to Verlander last season. People forget Verlander pitched pretty terrible over the first half of last year. 20 million next season wouldnt be terrible either. Rangers will need to eat some money to get a good return
Braves need Machado, not a pitcher.
I’m sure the Braves would love to add starting pitching.. Who do they have with a decent track record? Teheran is struggling now. His velocity is dropping. McCarthy? Newcomb is unproven. Foltynewicz might be their best bet now.
No the braves don’t need Machado. He will cost way to much. If we can get him for a mid-level prospects, fine. Otherwise, it is pointless to aquire him for 1/2 a season.
Braves need pitching. their offense is already one of the best in the league. roation, not so much. Newcomb damn near gives me a heartache Everytime he pitches
The Phillies need to bring Cole home. Seeing Cole on the Yankees, Braves, or Giants would be vomit inducing.
This.
Seeing him on the Phillies would be worse
He’s from the Phillies. He won the city a championship. He needs to come home.
Minus Giants, absolutely zero to offer.
Why would teams that spent the offseason carefully staying beneath luxury tax threshold blow their wad at the trade deadline on a guy who might be a .5war upgrade at best?
You save that little bit of cap-space breathing for the trade deadline to address glaring roster holes that reveal themselves over the course of the season due to injury or massive underperformance, not on a small rotation upgrade for a guy who might be used as the 3rd or 4th starter in a playoff series.
Because if that’s what they need, he’d be one hell of a 2-3 option on a team like the Yankees. That’s if they could get the Rangers to send some money back.
It appears the Yankees have enough cap space to get Hamels and Still add at the deadline. I don’t think the Yankees care about salary next year so if Hamels will only waive his no trade to the Yankees then his 20 million option won’t be a deterrent. I’m sure the Yankees will be on Hamels since CC and Tanaka are venerable no telling what you get out of those two over the rest of the season.
You men vulnerable? I agree with you on those two and think Hamels would be the number two starter in the Yankees rotation. I don’t understand the downvote though.
Dude I comment about this on my phone can’t even see downvotes and don’t give a rats ass about them anyway. I do really think that the Yankees will make a play and if they want him bad enough he will be a Yankee since the Yankees have more trade capital then any serious contender. I really hope that he goes to Seattle being a Red Sox fan would much rather see him go there then Yankees but Seattle can’t come anywhere near what Yankees could offer if it came down to that.
bruin, you forgot Sonny, lol
he is jeckyell and hyde.
only 1 great game this year.
The only team that couldn’t add him at the deadline and still maintain some space for additional depth trades is the Dodgers. Everybody else is already over or significantly under.
I don’t think the Red Sox can add him either. They are already over lux tax threshold but I think Hamels would put them in losing a draft pick territory.
Sox are getting close to the next phase of the tax, where I think the hit is long and hard. They I believe are the only team over, having reset it last year. They should be looking at relievers barring new injuries which shouldn’t be too pricey, contracts’ wise.
Barring injuries?
What happens when Price finally pitches against two tough opponents in a row in June and goes on the DL?
As usual nothing but complete idiotic comments go back under your bridge troll.
great point!!
Texas fans should be happy. There’s an OUTSIDE shot they can get Blake Swihart for Hamels……. just outside, though……..
big-W
I know inter-division trades don’t happen often, but the Mariners should be all over this! We need starting pitching if we’re going to seriously contend!
I totally agree for the most part. But good God, that salary is something else. The rangers will need to retain a lot of that, because we still need a late inning reliever, and a 2B/OF. The reason I like Hamels the most is because hes a veteran, and a proven playoff performer.
Phillies haven’t used a lefty starter since 2016.
Sure would be nice to see Hamels get the first one. Bring him on home, fellas.
The Phillies aren’t winning it this year. Hamels is a free agent at seasons end. They are better off keeping prospects and signing Hamels in the offseason. Every team knows there’s a really good chance the Phillies sign him so no one is even going to offer that much for him. He was just back at citizen bank park when Holliday passed away he loves the city. It’s where he belongs.
Cole’s on the field value is fairly high, generally durable inning eating work horse who gives generally quality innings. However his trade value is fairly low when compared to his performance. I’d say The Gerrit Cole Trade would be a fair comp for him. Cole had question marks when traded and returned what is expected to be an every day third basemen, two relievers one iffy and one who should be good (though they’re trying musgrove starting again) and a lower top 30 prospect. Cole’s contract is less than half as much and included a few more months of time.
One top 50-100, a starter to fill the rotation void and a couple mid range prospects. a bit more/bit less depending on what sort of salary relief the rangers provide.
I’d love him on the pirates, a decent lefty in the rotation would be so nice, but that’ll never happen
The Gerrit Cole trade isn’t really that good of a comp due to Cole being much younger, and having a full year of control where Hamels will only have half a year
Hamels has an option year.
Hamels to the Astros. Just think of the addition to that rotation. He could be the fourth or fifth starter. Man that would really be best rotation in the MLB. Plus the Rangers can get some controllable players back also
The Mariners make a lot of sense.
Paxton has never pitched a full season. Felix is in a rather sharp decline. Mike Leake is a serviceable innings eater, but his lack of swing-and-miss stuff means he’ll take some beatings. Marco Gonzalez is likely still on his way back to a full workload after TJ surgery. Wade LeBlanc. “Who?” Exactly.
We don’t have a farm system to speak of, so we can make up for that by taking on the full salary load, and we aren’t blocked in his NTC.
Get it done, Dipoto.
He is going to Seattle boys
Yes please
Brewers make tons of sense. While they currently have the lowest ERA in the NL, they lack a starter with a postseason track record. They also can fit in his salary even if they have to pick up his option to get him to accept the deal. Because they will be picking up substantial amount in salary, I don’t see them giving up a ton in prospects though they have a deep system and can afford to part with a guy who’s 5-10 in their system and another in the 10-15 range.
I think the brewers will be on the lookout for guys with multiyear control first and only settle for a rental as a last resort.
Phillies
IF (big two letter word) the Phillies continue to improve and stay in the race, don’t think for one second that Hamels won’t have the Phillies on his radar next season. Renters beware. Hamels has even made innuendos about Philly while he still has charity endeavors for his “home’ team. What a wild ride it would be IF (there is that word again) he comes back for a last hurrah and helps the team return to glory along with Nola and Arietta to anchor a very good staff. Most teams won’t pony up much for a two month rental, unless they truly believe he can “put them over the top”. But make no argument, Philly is still in his heart.
As a rangers fan, don’t care where cole gets traded to but can we get some pitching back. Most of our talented pitching prospects are in single A. Also rangers got a good young core. Rangers just need to restock the farm and sign some key players in the offseason.
Really hope a Philly Reunion is possible. It’s just tough to see where he’d fit in our rotation considering all 5 of our guys are pitching very well thus far. Like they all say, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.