With the season effectively over for all but a few teams, many front offices and fanbases alike are turning their sights toward the 2019 season and beyond as they hope for better days. With that in mind, here’s a look at some notes on some of the game’s top prospects from around the league…
- ESPN’s Keith Law named Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. his prospect of the year for a second consecutive season (subscription required), citing familiar questions about his long-term defensive capabilities but adding that there’s “zero question in my mind” that Guerrero is more than ready to thrive against Major League pitching at the moment. As for 2018 draftees, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman and Royals lefty Daniel Lynch have been the two most impressive in his estimation. Gorman destroyed Appalachian League pitching and was promoted to full-season Class-A ball despite only having turned 18 in May. Lynch, a University of Virginia product, split his pro debut between those same two levels and pitched to a 1.58 ERA with a 61-to-8 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 innings.
- Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com took a longer-term look at prospects yesterday, attempting to forecast who will be the top-ranked prospects this time a year from now. With names like Guerrero, Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker all expected to graduate from prospect lists next year, Callis and Mayo tab Twins shortstop Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick from 2017, as their pick to be the game’s top prospect a year from now. More encouraging for Twins fans is that 2016 first-rounder and outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, lands third on the same list after hitting .348/.392/.578 between Class-A and Class-A Advanced in his return from that surgery.
- Meanwhile, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser writes that Rays shortstop Wander Franco has been tabbed as BA’s breakout prospect of 2018. (Franco also appears on the previously mentioned lists from Law and MLB.com.) The 17-year-old Franco grew up living next to Indians superstar Jose Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and calls his childhood neighbor and friend his “idol” and greatest influence as a hitter. Glaser speaks to Franco about his relationship with Ramirez and his progress in 2018, and he also chats with Franco’s Appalachian League manager, Danny Sheaffer, about the young phenom’s strengths and upside. Franco was one of just two 17-year-olds playing in the Appy League this year but crushed older pitching to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 slash with 11 homers, 10 doubles and seven triples in 273 plate appearances.
- Evaluating pitching prospects is among the most challenging endeavors for teams and online analysts alike. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs recently explored the pitfalls of attempting to do so, suggesting that many mainstream publications (his own past work at Fangraphs included) have leaned too heavily in favor of “power-over-feel” prospects and downplayed the potential significance of players cut from the Shane Bieber cloth — those who possess above-average command and stuff but perhaps not an overpowering arsenal of 60- or 70-grade offerings. McDaniel highlights Tigers righty Matt Manning, White Sox righty Dylan Cease and Rays lefty/first baseman Brendan McKay in examining the various elements that have contributed to this line of thinking in an interesting column that those who avidly follow prospects will want to check out in its entirety.
I have to say with Cease and Jimenez doing as well as they have and Q being the same hot/cold pitcher he was for the Sox this ends up, not a fleecing, but an fair trade for both teams. Without Q you could make an argument the Cubs don’t make the playoffs in 2017 or 2018. Can’t complain that the Sox did their homework and hit twice.
I’d agree with you about the Sox doing their Hw but Jimenez and cease were widely considered among the games top prospects. Jimenez in a higher regard but nonetheless. This wasn’t like grabbing josh hader when he was a 19 year old 14 th round draft pick or whatever he was.
Cubs ain’t in yet
No but the Cubs are sitting pretty with the beat record in the NL and without Q that would not be the case
I hope the Lewis/Kiriloff prediction works out better than Sano/Buxton.
Same, because I’m tired of seeing Sano, and I’m tired of not seeing Buxton.
The whole relying on power thing for scouting pitchers reminds me of the whole Josh Allen thing for football. yeah he has a cannon for an arm, but he lacks the most important attribute for QBs…accuracy.
But it’s the way it’ll always be. Especially for HS draftees. Very few of those guys have a real pitching arsenal developed yet. I can understand why’d you take a shot on a guy who heats up the gun or has the physical projection at that age. Maybe it’d be good to take a hard look at college pitchers and find some of those in the Bieber mold there. Moneyball was all about finding the undervalued asset. Maybe that’s where it is right now.
Keith Law really went out on a limb there. You can’t teach that….
The “feel” over pure stuff, is one reason why the Braves have done so well drafting pitchers lately..
However, this practice really works best when these pitchers have enough velocity to reach back for an extra MPH or two, when they need it..
Wilson really only took off this season, after he was able to add about 3-4 MPH on his FB..
Soroka though, he’s just in a league of his own, in my opinion. His baseball/pitching acumen and IQ are off the charts for his age and experience level. You can’t have one of these lists without Soroka, and I was really about to be disappointed in Kiley, but he does add Soroka in his article..I really can’t wait for this kid to get healthy again next season, and watch him continue to keep hitters off-balance…Watching Mike Soroka pitch is a must-see for those baseball fans that really love to watch true pitching!!
Hmm… Defensive Questions… Sounds like an excellent reason to start him in AAA for two or three weeks next year to work on them.
I always knew Cease was destined to be a closer. McDaniel describes it as the “feel for starting” … Cease just lacks that.
His numbers look good at the moment because his stuff plays above his level of competition.
Did he base his evaluation of Cease by watching one start? That’s what it sounded like.