The Rockies’ season came to a disappointing end tonight, as the Brewers swept them out of the NLDS in three games. While Colorado can be proud of two straight years of postseason baseball, Nolan Arenado’s future may be the biggest issue looming over the team as its offseason begins. There has been speculation that the Rox could consider trading the superstar third baseman rather than let him walk as a free agent once his contract is up after the 2019 season, assuming an extension can’t be reached. (Though the chances of an offseason trade seem doubtful, as surely the Rockies must be figuring on contending again in 2019.) For his part, Arenado told The Athletic’s Nick Groke (Twitter links) and other reporters that offseason contract discussions are less important to his winter activities than his family’s Wiffle Ball competition, saying bluntly “I expect to be here next season. The future is bright here.”
Here’s more from around the NL West…
- Former Giants GM Bobby Evans tells the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo that he would like to be considered for the other open general manager jobs around baseball, though since he still has 15 months remaining on his contract in San Francisco, he is happy to take on whatever role assigned by the Giants’ next baseball operations head. Evans would also be understanding if the new GM would prefer if Evans left the organization. The team’s decision to remove Evans from his former post caught him somewhat off-guard: “I think you’re always surprised when something like this happens because we’ve all worked so closely together for so long and we had three World Series championships together.” Nevertheless, Evans said “the Giants were fantastic to me for 25 years,” and he defended his front office from the perception that it was somewhat behind in analytical implementation, noting that the team was already in the process of shifting from a traditional scouting-heavy approach to more analytics usage.
- Enrique Hernandez has become the definition of a super-utilityman for the Dodgers, with The Athletic’s Eno Sarris noting (subscription required) that Hernandez’s 118 wRC+ from the 2018 season is the highest of any player who has ever played at least eight different positions in a season. “If it wasn’t for my defense and the versatility, I’d probably have been stuck in the minors,” Hernandez said. “At first, it was what got me to the big leagues. After that, it’s what kept me here.” Hernandez hit .256/.336/.470 with 21 homers over 462 PA, while playing everywhere except catcher and making at least one start at every position except first base. His bat really began to heat up after adopting a slight step backwards during his swing in May, allowing Hernandez to produce against both left-handed and right-handed pitching, and making him a starter at second base for Los Angeles in all three games of the NLDS.
- After joining the Dodgers in a trade from the Pirates at the August 31 deadline, David Freese has made a big contribution both on the field and in the clubhouse, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett writes. Justin Turner praised Freese as a veteran influence to the Dodgers’ younger players, while manager Dave Roberts appreciated how Freese was open to a part-time role. Freese “didn’t try to force his way into a leadership role but really bought into what we were doing as far as sacrificing,” Roberts said. “That minimized the noise. He was walking the walk. He just has a way of commanding a room and players respect it.” As a part-time first baseman and mostly facing left-handed pitching, Freese hit a whopping .385/.489/.641 over 47 PA after coming to L.A.
Welcome to the Yankees Nolan
Why they have Miguel Andujar
It’s a joke, but Arenado is better
Arenado > Andujar, on both sides of the ball.
Nope. He’s gonna be either a Dodger or an Angel eventually. He is a West Coast guy that grew up as a Dodgers fan.
So was CC Sabathia. OK. CC rooted for Giants/A’s.
Hope u keep your franchise player, but if he leaves, dont think what you’re saying is written in stone.
Well of course I know it is not written in stone. I’m not his agent or anything. I’ve just seen him being interviewed countless times over the past 10 years or so since he was drafted and just going on the knowledge I acquired watching him speak.
Dodgers have Turner signed to a pretty big contract. Doubt they would just get rid of him to sign Arenado
Turner will only have 1 year of his contract left. The dodgers are also without a second basemen, Turner’s original position. They could easily use both.
They won’t trade him to the Dodgers
They don’t have to
He can walk down to L.A. and sign a FA contract in a little over a year. I don’t really see a great fit in L.A. though. They still have JT and Seager will have returned. I know the kicked around the idea of Turner at 2nd but it seems easier to go out and get a 2B if they don’t have a guy like Gavin Lux up by then, Arenado is a special talent and I could be surprised but it doesn’t seem like the most logical fit for anything other than ‘that’s where he’s from.
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I meant as in the article that the Rockies would trade him in his last year to get a return for him. Sure free agency is a different story
So how are those games meaningless? You do not make sense.
Hope the Rockies hit on that draft pick they get for Nolan next year!
Arenado is a Coors Field myth. I wouldn’t touch him to hit .240, with a twenty-foot pole.
I got to say I’d we weary of taking on a huge contract for someone who spends half their time at Coors, regardless of his defense.
I looked up his stats and they are significantly better at home. I guess you can see if he hits well at whatever park you sign him to play for, but I dunno… besides Matt Holiday (whose stats sill dipped quite a bit after leaving) has there been any free agent hitter that has performed well after leaving Colorado? I’m really curious.
Manny Machado hits at a 330 24 Hrs clip at home v 272 on the road. 24 HRs v 12 on the road. Similar dip in B.B. rate and rise in K rate. It’s obviously difficult to pinpoint how much coors field helps a guy but hitters typical perform a good deal better at home. And I’d imagine being used to the altitude in coors doesn’t do you any favors on the road. It has to be factored in to some extent but I doubt there’s many people who don’t believe arenado is a high end talent in both regards
Every Cardinal hitter has better road numbers than at home, much like I would assume that all Colorado players did better at home. For some players home cooking may help them but the park definitely is a huge effect on offensive output.
Every Cardinal hitter has better road numbers than at home this year, much like I would assume that all Colorado players did better at home. For some players home cooking may help them but the park definitely is a huge effect on offensive output.
It will be factored in, but the vast, vast majority of players perform better at home.
Familiarity, umpire bias, less travel time etc.
Colorado is the most favorable park to hitters. Of course hitters stats will go down a bit when leaving there. Any hitter would. I would think the 5 Gold Gloves in 5 years (soon to be 6 in 6 years) would be enough to offset any slight drop in offensive stats.
.347/.424/.681 at home in 288 AB vs .248/.325/.447 away in 302 AB. I wouldn’t consider that a “slight drop in offensive stats”.
Yeah, definitely not a “slight drop.” Charlie Blackmon, and DJ lemahieu have a nearly identical drop off. The only player I saw without an extreme drop off was Story. His drop off in production was significant but not to the level of those 3. Different people can draw different conclusions from that data but I’d say:.
It’s MORE difficult to transition when your home park is in Colorado to other parks than say from a guy whose home park is in Miami and then he plays Atlanta. I don’t think anyone on Earth believes Arenado is anywhere close to a poor hitter. Though, I can see why a FO may be reluctant to pencil in huge offensive numbers when your projecting him. Obviously his floor is very high due to his elite defense but when you’re paying a guy around 200million dollars you’d like the error bar to be very small.
I would. Because neither of those stats is all that accurate. The difference between home and road stats is most vast for the Rockies players. The Rockies road stats are made up of a large part (about one third) of the best pitcher’s parks in the league in SF, LA, and SD. Every other team’s players get to include “inflated” Coors Field numbers into their combined road stats. That’s why players from the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres always seem to have numbers that are seemingly closer. Around 11% of their road numbers are Coors Field. Home / road stats for Rockies hitters are virtually meaningless.
That’s not an excuse and those games are not meaningless. Each of those stadiums have positive or average offensive marks in certain categories, great players play well no matter the environment.
Well to be fair to Arenado he has had a lot of success away from Coors excluding this past season. Look at his road splits in 2017, 2016, and 2015.
Holliday, Tulo, Atkins, Morneau, Cuddyer….bunch of examples of guys who were helped by Colorado. Arenado will be exposed if he leaves. Rockies would be wise to rebuild around Story.
Arenado may be a 25 homer guy, but expect .260 with a .320 OBP, and expect the numbers to drop as he gets older.
Arenado hit 15 HR on the Road last year. He has had at least 15 HR on the road every year since 2015. He is more of a 30-35 home run guy, not a 25 homer guy.
Holliday was a 4x All Star in St. Louis. Morneau and Cuddyer hit over .300 on the road the year they won their batting titles.
Tulo was damaged goods when he left Colorado. I’m sure it helped him but it’s hard to know just how much. Holliday isn’t a very good example at all. Morneau was pretty good in Minnesota too.
Andrés Galarraga had a great year with Atlanta in 98 when he hit .305, 44 HR, .991 OPS after he left the Rockies in free agency.
Other players who were traded away by Colorado such as Corey Dickerson, and Dexter Fowler have performed well with other teams after leaving the Rockies.
It’s an anomaly. Colorado favors hitters and have given guys new life (Cuddyer, Morneau, Castilla the 2nd time through, Hammonds).
Arenado is a great defender and the most overrated hitter in baseball.
If you think Arenado is the most overrated hitter in MLB look at Aaron Judge’s road splits, and see if you change your mind. Judge hit .212 last year, with 9 HR on the road with a .688 OPS.
Took a look….no, won’t change my mind. Arenado is overrated. At least Judge knows how to swing a bat in October. Arenado is regarded as the clear cut best all-around 3B in baseball. Great glove, stick would get killed outside Denver.
So a 30-35 HR guy would get killed outside of Denver ? Great logic.
Says the guy that put down a 40 HR guy in Judge. Sorry pal, Arenado is a product of Colorado. Just accept it. He’ll be a nice 25-30 HR guy.
Aaron Judge’s career numbers away from Yankee Stadium are insane.
Home .322, 54 HR, 1,137 OPS
Away .226, 29 HR, .793 OPS
That’s a 96 point difference in BA, 25 difference in HR, and .344 difference in OPS.
Nolan has a much higher career BA away, and SLG away from Coors in his career than Judge has away from Yankee Stadium.
Judge is a product of Yankee Stadium. Accept it.
Judge also hits a career .234 against lefties. I’m willing to bet that will improve, like his road numbers over time.
Not willing to bet Arenado’s road numbers will improve.
The entire Rockies team are a product of Coors Field. Accept the inevitable losing because of it. O-ver-rated.
“Nevertheless, Evans said “the Giants were fantastic to me for 25 years,” and he defended his front office from the perception that it was somewhat behind in analytical implementation, noting that the team was already in the process of shifting from a traditional scouting-heavy approach to more analytics usage.”
This is hilarious. Teams have been using analytics for the better part of a decade. He’s defensive because they’re just now starting to get around mixing them in.
I find interesting how so many teams use analytics and they still lose!!!
Because every baseball game has a winner and a loser.
Don’t confuse the poor guy/girl with logic.
Yep, like Houston last year and the Cubs the year before….analytics just have no place for a winning team.
When every team is using analytics, how does any one team use it to their advantage?
Because each team has its own staff, its own employees, and, most importantly, its own proprietary data, way of capturing it, and way of utilizing it. This is like saying “if every University teaches Math, why is someone who graduated from Oxford more likely to win a Nobel than someone who graduated from Louisiana Tech.?” The idea that “analytics” is a narrow band of information is pretty short-sighted.
I mean, the Britton example is a good one – he came from an organization without much of an analytics department, and with the Yankees, he learned all kinds of stuff about spin rate, location as it related to different batters and different types of batters, how to negate launch angle, etc…..both the Yankees and Baltimore are using analytics, but the Yankees are doing it in a more comprehensive way and in a different way than the O’s are. And the Yankees won about, what, 50 more games than Baltimore this season? 40 more?
No, it isn’t like saying that at all, and of course I never said anything about “narrow bands,” whatever that is supposed to mean.
So, yes, every team is developing its own proprietary data. I’ve made that point myself lots of times. My question is, how does any one team know if their methods are better than the methods being used by the other 29 teams?
This is a serious question deserving a serious answer.
Who cares!? It was all on cable!? It never happened!?
Jean Segura for Nolan?
It seems that David Freese is having a similar affect on the Dodgers clubhouse as Chse Utley has for the past couple of years.
David Freese is the kind of player who is a role model for any team. When he was in Pittsburgh, he was nothing but exemplary in his demeanor. In addition to performing well whenever and wherever he played, Freese was a true leader. A class act. He is really missed by Pittsburgh fans.
Please Mo trade for Nolan in STL!!
He would definitely solidify the 3b position in STL, but his offensive numbers would take a huge hit. The Cardinals offense this year at home was considerably less than that on the road in all areas and with all players. STL is not a hitters park.
ANY_IMPENDING_FREE_AGENT is definitely going to (“NY || CHI || LA”)
Don’t forget Phillies
Didn’t Hernandez start in RF game 1?
Arenado represented by Scott Boras. He will be 28 years old when he becomes a FA (29 for 2020 season), in the prime of his career. Agreeing to an extension before free agency is very unlikely unless Arenado tells Boras that he wants to finish his career as a Rockies.
He’s actually represented by the Wasserman media group
If i’m Arenado and i believe in my hitting skills/abilities, then i’m all in on being traded this off season.
Why?
Because if i honestly believe in what i can do, i then have a full season playing half my games at a park other than Coors Field. If i look around and see which teams need a 3rd baseman and have the means to get me, then i hope it’s the Cardinals or Indians.
They both have a 3rd base need, both are competitive, both are considered neutral parks for home runs and both are higher profile than Colorado from a success angle.
Having personal success with either of those teams will put me in a better spot for a huge contract. Plus, it’s easier to adjust with a full season as opposed to being traded mid-season, if that were to happen.
And if he has a subpar 2019 season playing for another team, perhaps in a different league? Best move for Arenado’s value is to stay in Colorado for another terrific season and work on improving his road splits then enter free agency as likely the premiere position player.
Look. Few value offensive numbers by players in Colorado. He has zero left to prove hitting in that park. A full season away from Coors Field with similar results ups his value. Putting up similar numbers playing another season there doesn’t.
Even if he has a lighter offensive output away from there, he won’t have to go to another league. Thinking that just makes it look like you are scared he might not be anything but a Coors Field product.
Perfect fit for the Mets.
Hope the Rockies don’t hold onto Nolan (like the O’s did with Manny) for no reason. If they don’t think they’ll contend then get what you can for him rather than wait
Teams may not be as enthusiastic as many think about picking up Arenado, his home/road splits are considerably different which makes him pretty average anywhere but at Coors field.