The Mariners are set to retool this offseason, leaving few to no untouchables on their roster. Left-hander James Paxton has emerged as arguably their highest-profile trade candidate early this offseason, and he’s drawing interest from an array of teams, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Astros are part of that group, Rosenthal reports.
As World Series contenders who are seeking starters, the Astros are a logical match for Paxton. Although the club had an elite rotation in 2018, it could lose both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, and it just found out Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Those factors leave aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole as the Astros’ only rotation locks at the moment, though it seems they’ll return veteran Collin McHugh to a starting role after he thrived as a reliever last season. But those three are only signed through next season, whereas Paxton’s controllable through 2020.
Even if the Astros do move McHugh back to their rotation next season, they’ll still be short on established starters. Swingman Brad Peacock and a series of youngsters – including Forrest Whitley (perhaps the game’s best pitching prospect) and Josh James – are among their other rotation possibilities.
Notably, Seattle and Houston are in the same division, which in theory could make a trade unlikely. However, if the Mariners don’t see themselves as near-term contenders in the AL West, their mindset should be to take the best possible offer. The Astros may be in position to make the most generous proposal for the 30-year-old Paxton, given that they own one of the majors’ best farm systems. Houston will face plenty of competition, though, including from the AL rival Yankees.
While the flamethrowing Paxton comes with a troubling injury history and has never approached the 200-inning mark in a season, he’s still among the game’s top starters on a per-inning basis. Paxton’s affordable control only adds to his value, as he’s projected to earn a reasonable $9MM in 2019.
Probably another SP Cashman will miss out on.
That’s because teams always want more from NY. A #8 prospect in NY is a #2 on most teams because NY’s system is sooo deep.
Facts. For example what the pirates got for Cole was a joke compared to what NY offered
What did the Yankees actually offer vs what was speculated Pittsburgh asked for?
Based on reports Clint Frazier and chance Adams. Pirates wanted Andujar and Frazier according to CBS
I’ve read conflicting reports. The Pirates asked for Torres.
Very true!
That’s what the pirates actually got though.
They wanted a 3B and OF in the cole deal. They wound up accepting 3B Moran, OF Martin, and SP Musgrave and RP Feliz.
Pirates wanted Andujar and Frazier but had Yankees counted with Adams, Florial, Estrada and another pitcher cole probably becomes a Yankee.
literally not facts, the Yankees farm isn’t anywhere near as strong as Houston’s, even Oakland has a better farm than the Yankees, who are in like the 15-20 range for farms. #facts
The Yankees are lucky to have a top 10 farm right now.
No wonder the Pirates turned them down. Frazier and Adams are Overrated, and only names because they are Yankee proapects.
The problem with “deep” farm systems is this…….
As soon as the ML team makes 3-4 trades of prospects for veterans – some not even blockbuster trades – the organization’s superior farm system ranking disappears.
That has happened to the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, Yankees, A’s and others the past 2-3 years.
Most of the players they trade or call up do little – exceptions being Andujar and Torres with the Yankees.
Now I read article after article about the Astros “deep’ farm system, and how they’ll be trading prospects for veteran pitchers yet again – looking for a name catcher. Well, they already traded a bunch to get Verlander and Cole, among others. Exactly how many more trades can they make before their “deep” farm system is no more? And how many veteran contracts can they take on before their budget hits the limit.
I’d be more impressed if they filled some of the major league openings with their vaulted prospects to keep the budget under control for years, and sustain winning. It’s pretty obvious that they don’t think as highly about their prospects as others do…..particularly the media.
The Astros only gave up spare parts for Cole and the gem of Verlander deal, Gutierrez is hurt.
Lunhow is very adamant about not giving up too prospects.
Whitley and Tucker should answer your question.
Not it was not, they got two well regard prospects in Moran and Musgrove. Trust me, it’ll pay off and Musgrove showed some signs of that last season. Besides, Cole only got one more yr left before FA. Is not like he had 3+ yrs of control. They got a controllable SP and a position player that might break out soon…..I think it was fair……..Try NOAH SYNDERGUAARD for RA Dickey and you’ll experience what a real bust is, I got to experience that. Thanks god, Anthopolus is long gone before he ended trading up Vlad, Bo and Biggio.
Once again, missed the mark with your latest comment Mr. JTO!
Oaklands farm isn’t anywhere close to the Yankees….please…please….please stop being such a donkey……Yankees are a 15-20 farm ….that’s a clown comment… clown!
well they have Kuechal, Mccann, Morton, Harris,Gonzalez off the books which is about 40 m. Plus Verlanders and Coles Contracts are off the books after next year which is about another 38 m.. Granted Altuve money due will kick in, and have to pay Springer, soon, But by the time Correa and Bregman need new contracts Gurriel, Reddick will be off the books. So they still have money to play with.
They’re not really even that deep. Probably a little above average, but they aren’t as good as you think
Deep? Their farm system is ranked 17th in baseball
Nahhhh not true
Yankees fans would deny that lol
extremely true
did you know the Yankees have 1 title in 18 years? the Red Sox have 4 titles in the 15 years. these are what facts are and facts show your precious yankees have constantly been the most overrated team and overrated farm in decades. Boston is your daddy now – that’s a fact.
Thev’ve still won more titles during the Wild Card era. And how many times did they make the postseason in those 18 years? And how many games did they win last year while going under the tax cap?
Relax Boston is the Yankees step sister
Why do you guys keep feeding the Judge Judy troll? He is a Red Sox fan.
Who’s your daddy JTO…..oh, I forgot you don’t know or is it that somebody just doesn’t; want to own up to fathering such as donkey!
Big deal the Yankees made the playoffs staying under the cap. The wild card. Both the Dodgers this year and Boston last season did the same thing while winning a division title. Means nothing as the Dodgers were bride maids two straight years and Boston lost in the divisional series in ’17.
Nobody wants to trade with us because our players are too good. That’s a new one, quality troll job.
not even players, their constantly-overrated prospects, overrated by their own massive sprawling media that reports on each of them 100x as much as other teams do with theirs, hence the overrated and hyping of mediocre players lol
Florial might not even turn into anything, but shhh dont tell Yankee fans that, to them he already is Mickey Mantle. What a joke Yankee fans truly are.
Hey now. I am a Yankee fan!! Why do fans of other teams constantly lump us together?
I would agree with you on Florial. I have seen him play. Immensely talented, has all the tools, and very little baseball iq.
I disagree on Frazier though. If he can manage to stay on the field he is going to be something special.
Hey, by the way,,,,what happened to all that bragging about how your A’s were going to sweep away the Bronx Bombers and how the A’s were going to force them to play in the cow barn you call a stadium.
A very big if with respect to Frazier. Hopefully for him his concussion symptoms go away because health is priority one. Unfortunately his injury history not including his concussion side effects is long and other than perhaps being part of a Paxton type trade, his value right now is far higher to the Yankees than sny any other club.
Every team has fans like this guy.. or girl, considering the name.
NYY system is about middle of the pack. Nice try.
The Yankees farm is roughly league average
Yeah you guys are living in fantasy land. Just read within the last couple days that the Yankees farm system is ranked 17th due to “graduation” of prospects. So unless you plan on giving up some of that young MLB talent you guys really don’t have a farm system.
Well am17tibe….just like Boston, the Yankees actually have prospects that leave the farm and make the ml roster…which the last time anybody checked, helps you win…….up until the last couple of years the Yankees had a farm ranked in the top 5.
With Paxton’s injury history, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to miss out on him. Carrasco and Kluber are better investments.
Hi Joe,
I think Charlie Morton is a great pitcher too, well maybe
Cashman will surprise us?
He’s a good pitcher but he doesn’t pitch many innings. With CC on the team, who’s only good for about 80 to 85 pitches a game, I would worry about overusing the bullpen. As far as FA pitchers go, I prefer Corbin even if they have to overpay a bit.
Oh absolutely Joe, my gut says he is ours!! It’s been a long time coming.
Geeze, what an off
season!! A field day.
Eileen, I agree Corbin is likely a Yankee next year but would it surprise you if Dave Dombrowski pulls a rabbit out of his hat should Eovaldi sign elsewhere? Sale us both injured and a free agent after 19 as is Porcello. Planning ahead, he may try to sign Porcello to an extension but as great as Sale has been, he’s a risk right now who will only likely give a discount if he knows he needs surgery. Imagine a tantrum from Hal ala his dad over that. I don’t really expect it but it certainly is possible and would make for a heck of a story.
Agreed Joe….Paxton hasn’t pitched under the pressure of the AL East, and much too fragile……
“The pressure of the AL East”
Get over yourselves haha. My goodness.
There is AL East pressure. Stems from the combination of the NE media, hitter friendly stadiums (other than Tampa) and the expectation of winning. Such is not limited to this division
Is there any factual basis at all you cant point to on this? Any research that points out a systematic (not anecdotal) pattern of players performing worse in the AL East after accounting for relative talent levels and park factors?
Or is this one of those gut-feeling assertions?
Eye test but I do believe there is supporting evidence. Cities like Chicago also have it. So many press credentials in the NY and Boston Metro areas. Presses passes yo games dwarfs most other markets.
Why trade for Paxton when you could trade for a better SP or just sign a better SP?
1. The price for degrom syndergaard bumgardner will be insane. Greinke makes too much money.
2. Corbin keuchel will be expensive.
3. Paxton is young two arb years below market rate for his production and cheaper acquisition than the names mentioned above.
It also helps that DeGrom and Syndagaard aren’t available because the Mets aren’t rebuilding.
Paxton is cheaper for a reason. Upside is there but so is the risk. Reminds me of the Sox trading for Smith and then Thornburg.
Beg,
DITTO
Although he’s only available for 2 seasons he is more ‘affordable’ than the top 4,5 FA pitchers on the market. 2 yrs of arb- should make $9-10m 2019 season. Re: injury history. Pax has been very unlucky w his injuries this past season esp. He was hit by a line drive in Anaheim, if he moved just a couple inches either way he doesn’t have a grapefruit sized swelling on his forearm. One of the best LHP in the game
I agree…always a debate by non-GMs on what’s worthy for their favorite team. Like Stanton, Paxton has injury woes but not fully caused by him. Like Stanton, when he’s on field he is performing. He can be a solid #2 on most teams. I’m sure I’ll get flacks for this comment but again I aint no GM.
Yanks,
You are so right. he REsigned CC, lol, that will suffice.
When was the last time we gad a real ace
Yanks,
You are so right. he REsigned CC, lol, that will suffice.
When was the last time we gad a real ace
EDIT. HAD
@JD maybe stick to enjoying your WS title.For those ripping the NYY farm system, it sdlipped from #3 to #16 at the end of this season simply because Andujar, and Torres were major leaguers, and Frazier was on the DL.
If you include Andujar and Frazier as trade chips/prospects, they’re easily a top 10 farm. Houston DOES have a much better system, though.
The Yankees’ system went down rating wise like Boston’s two years ago. Yes they traded away a lot with the Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg trades but they also brought up at extremely young ages, Betts, Benintendi and Devers. The Yankees farm would be just fine if Judge, Andujar, Torres, et al were just coming up now.
Another trio of 200+ k’s next season sounds nice. I’d be okay with Alvarez and JB Bukkake as centerpieces
Paxton only has hit 200 k’s 1 time in his 6 year career.
Right but his stuff is similar to Cole and JV so I think if healthy Paxton would continue to improve
Paxton pitched really well using that 95mph+ FB high and tight against the Astros hitters this year. I could see why the Astros wouldn’t want him to face them over the next two years but I have a hard time believing Jerry will trade Big Maple to the AL West champs. In fact imo Seattle was a SP maybe 2 away from making the playoffs last year- they should hold onto Paxton one more yr.
If the astros offer mlb ready pitchers for Paxton plus OF I think dealing dipoto moves him to the astros.
Astros get Paxton
Mariners get Cionel Perez, Josh James, Seth Beer, garret stubbs.
I can see that, actually. Finally a trade proposal that is fair value around here!
I think that’s pretty reasonable… if probably ask for Corbin Martin instead of Perez (less relief risk) but I think that should get it done. I’d be surprised if a deal gets done without Stubbs bc of the need for a catcher
If the Astros actually have major league ready pitchers, exactly why would they roll the dice, (and they are rolling the dice with Paxton’s injury history) on Paxton when they can solve their pitching issues internally?????,
My guess is the M’s will want one or two prospects in the top 100.
The rule I try to follow is “if a trade proposal is comfortable for me, it’s not going to be comfortable for the other side.”
Seattle was much more than a SP or two away from the playoffs last year.
This would be such an Astros move. This guy will pitch lights out, stay healthy under their system, and probably finish near the top in pitching stats.
That’s because the infamous spin rate will increase over 100%.
Hopefully Mike Fast left notes on spin rates when he bolted for ATL.
I love seeing teams go for it besides NY/Bos/LA. Great for Astros fans, and great for baseball.
Houston would have to overpay to get him. Really hard to see a deal getting done with Houston.
Everyone seems to be glossing over James. He’ll certainly be one of the 5 starters.
The Yankees rotation is garbage
I really hope the M’s keep Pax. Sure, he’s got great trade value but he’s also got a lot of years left and he is worth molding the rotation around. The injury and inconsistency things are working against him tho.
2 years left, and while he’s a guy you can build a rotation around, that’s no reason not to trade him. Seattle is unlikely to be a legitimate contender within the next two years so they trade him for guys who will be there when they can be.
Yankee fans are so hilarious.
Not nearly as hilarious as Yankee haters.
joe says… the stupidest things
Astros says far worse
nope, yankee fans are by the far the worst in baseball, 100% of people outside of nyc agree
Facts. Is that a fact ? No that’s not a fact. Just stick to the facts ma’am
No Joe actually Yankee fans are much more hilarious than any Yankee haters
With the lack of catching in our system any trade of Paxton will likely have to bring back a young, controllable catcher. That said, if he is dealt to Houston Garrett Stubbs would likely be a Mariners target.
Kyle Tucker and Josh James!
Can’t see the Astros going the trade route. Slowly but surely, age and arbitration are beginning to creep onto their roster, and I can’t see them giving up their top-flight guys for an injury-prone (albeit very good) Paxton.
I’d expect them to go the FA route instead. Without Morton/Keuchel/Gonzo, there’s some sheckles available. If they decide Eovoldi is indeed healthy (a BIG if) , he’s not only a good fit, he’s almost congruent.
If they DO deal from their system, I see Realmuto more than Paxton……
As a Yankee fan, Corbin and Carrasco. Kluber is at peak value; Paxton is not durable. Sevvy, Tanaka, Happ, Corbin, Carrasco and CC. Montgomery in the wings. Looks a lot better than 2018.
Yankees would have to deplete what little depth they have left in the minors to get Paxton. They don’t have enough to get Carrasco or Kluber. Overrated guys like Frazier or Adams isn’t getting it done.
Thank you for sharing that insight in the comment section of an article that is neither about the Yankees, nor the the pitchers you wish for them to acquire.
James Paxton to Houston for Brad Peacock, Yordan Alvarez, and Jayson Schroder
James paxton for free you say?
I was thinking we could throw in Díaz as well.
i am a yankees fan and i am from illinois. the yankees are such a great franchise to not like. yankees aint getting paxton. kluber maybe, but i like carrasco. great in postseason and great altogether.
I wonder what the price would be. I’m sure Lunhow would love to do a 4 for 1 trade.