The Mariners are set to retool this offseason, leaving few to no untouchables on their roster. Left-hander James Paxton has emerged as arguably their highest-profile trade candidate early this offseason, and he’s drawing interest from an array of teams, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Astros are part of that group, Rosenthal reports.
As World Series contenders who are seeking starters, the Astros are a logical match for Paxton. Although the club had an elite rotation in 2018, it could lose both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, and it just found out Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Those factors leave aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole as the Astros’ only rotation locks at the moment, though it seems they’ll return veteran Collin McHugh to a starting role after he thrived as a reliever last season. But those three are only signed through next season, whereas Paxton’s controllable through 2020.
Even if the Astros do move McHugh back to their rotation next season, they’ll still be short on established starters. Swingman Brad Peacock and a series of youngsters – including Forrest Whitley (perhaps the game’s best pitching prospect) and Josh James – are among their other rotation possibilities.
Notably, Seattle and Houston are in the same division, which in theory could make a trade unlikely. However, if the Mariners don’t see themselves as near-term contenders in the AL West, their mindset should be to take the best possible offer. The Astros may be in position to make the most generous proposal for the 30-year-old Paxton, given that they own one of the majors’ best farm systems. Houston will face plenty of competition, though, including from the AL rival Yankees.
While the flamethrowing Paxton comes with a troubling injury history and has never approached the 200-inning mark in a season, he’s still among the game’s top starters on a per-inning basis. Paxton’s affordable control only adds to his value, as he’s projected to earn a reasonable $9MM in 2019.
Probably another SP Cashman will miss out on.
Another trio of 200+ k’s next season sounds nice. I’d be okay with Alvarez and JB Bukkake as centerpieces
Paxton only has hit 200 k’s 1 time in his 6 year career.
Right but his stuff is similar to Cole and JV so I think if healthy Paxton would continue to improve
Paxton pitched really well using that 95mph+ FB high and tight against the Astros hitters this year. I could see why the Astros wouldn’t want him to face them over the next two years but I have a hard time believing Jerry will trade Big Maple to the AL West champs. In fact imo Seattle was a SP maybe 2 away from making the playoffs last year- they should hold onto Paxton one more yr.
If the astros offer mlb ready pitchers for Paxton plus OF I think dealing dipoto moves him to the astros.
Astros get Paxton
Mariners get Cionel Perez, Josh James, Seth Beer, garret stubbs.
I can see that, actually. Finally a trade proposal that is fair value around here!
I think that’s pretty reasonable… if probably ask for Corbin Martin instead of Perez (less relief risk) but I think that should get it done. I’d be surprised if a deal gets done without Stubbs bc of the need for a catcher
If the Astros actually have major league ready pitchers, exactly why would they roll the dice, (and they are rolling the dice with Paxton’s injury history) on Paxton when they can solve their pitching issues internally?????,
My guess is the M’s will want one or two prospects in the top 100.
The rule I try to follow is “if a trade proposal is comfortable for me, it’s not going to be comfortable for the other side.”
Seattle was much more than a SP or two away from the playoffs last year.
This would be such an Astros move. This guy will pitch lights out, stay healthy under their system, and probably finish near the top in pitching stats.
That’s because the infamous spin rate will increase over 100%.
Hopefully Mike Fast left notes on spin rates when he bolted for ATL.
I love seeing teams go for it besides NY/Bos/LA. Great for Astros fans, and great for baseball.
Houston would have to overpay to get him. Really hard to see a deal getting done with Houston.
Everyone seems to be glossing over James. He’ll certainly be one of the 5 starters.
The Yankees rotation is garbage
I really hope the M’s keep Pax. Sure, he’s got great trade value but he’s also got a lot of years left and he is worth molding the rotation around. The injury and inconsistency things are working against him tho.
2 years left, and while he’s a guy you can build a rotation around, that’s no reason not to trade him. Seattle is unlikely to be a legitimate contender within the next two years so they trade him for guys who will be there when they can be.
Yankee fans are so hilarious.
Not nearly as hilarious as Yankee haters.
joe says… the stupidest things
Astros says far worse
nope, yankee fans are by the far the worst in baseball, 100% of people outside of nyc agree
Facts. Is that a fact ? No that’s not a fact. Just stick to the facts ma’am
No Joe actually Yankee fans are much more hilarious than any Yankee haters
With the lack of catching in our system any trade of Paxton will likely have to bring back a young, controllable catcher. That said, if he is dealt to Houston Garrett Stubbs would likely be a Mariners target.
Kyle Tucker and Josh James!
Can’t see the Astros going the trade route. Slowly but surely, age and arbitration are beginning to creep onto their roster, and I can’t see them giving up their top-flight guys for an injury-prone (albeit very good) Paxton.
I’d expect them to go the FA route instead. Without Morton/Keuchel/Gonzo, there’s some sheckles available. If they decide Eovoldi is indeed healthy (a BIG if) , he’s not only a good fit, he’s almost congruent.
If they DO deal from their system, I see Realmuto more than Paxton……
As a Yankee fan, Corbin and Carrasco. Kluber is at peak value; Paxton is not durable. Sevvy, Tanaka, Happ, Corbin, Carrasco and CC. Montgomery in the wings. Looks a lot better than 2018.
Yankees would have to deplete what little depth they have left in the minors to get Paxton. They don’t have enough to get Carrasco or Kluber. Overrated guys like Frazier or Adams isn’t getting it done.
Thank you for sharing that insight in the comment section of an article that is neither about the Yankees, nor the the pitchers you wish for them to acquire.
James Paxton to Houston for Brad Peacock, Yordan Alvarez, and Jayson Schroder
James paxton for free you say?
I was thinking we could throw in Díaz as well.
i am a yankees fan and i am from illinois. the yankees are such a great franchise to not like. yankees aint getting paxton. kluber maybe, but i like carrasco. great in postseason and great altogether.
I wonder what the price would be. I’m sure Lunhow would love to do a 4 for 1 trade.