MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes spoke with agent Bryce Dixon about Nelson Cruz’s market yesterday at the Winter Meetings, and Tim also got an update on another Dixon client, Johnny Cueto. It isn’t yet clear when the Giants right-hander will be back on the mound in the wake of Tommy John surgery last August, though Dixon is optimistic about both a full recovery for Cueto and potentially a return late this season. Dixon’s full comments:
“The rehab is progressing on schedule. He says his arm feels great, he’s working out a ton. At the earliest, he could throw in the minors like middle/end of August, maybe see some Major League action in September. But it’s a wait-and-see, once he starts throwing, how it reacts. But the good news is he’s told me that his arm feels great. He doesn’t have any pain. The pain that he felt is all gone. The way he’s working out right now, I believe that when he comes back and he’s back in top form – obviously it’s going to take him a little bit of time to get back to that form – I think he’ll be as good if not better. If he can get back to how his arm felt prior, he’s such a different guy mentally than he was when he first came up when he was throwing so hard, that he’s got so many more tricks in the bag than he had back then, that I think about it, I’m like man, if he comes back 100% and is throwing like he did earlier in his career, wow, he could come back and be really, really special. Even more special than he had been before the surgery.”
Here’s more on some notable hurlers….
- Yusei Kikuchi will meet with interested teams later this month in Los Angeles, Kikuchi’s agent Scott Boras told reporters (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) today. The Japanese left-hander has received interest from several teams but it will still be a matter of weeks before he signs with a Major League team. Kikuchi’s 30-day posting window opened on December 4, so there isn’t any rush towards a deal.
- The Rangers have yet to check in on Derek Holland, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter). The club is known to be on the hunt for relatively inexpensive pitching, and the Rangers have at least internally discussed the possibility of trying to lure Holland for another stint in Texas. Sullivan notes, however, that Holland’s preference would be to remain with the Giants or stay in the National League.
- The Phillies aren’t willing to go beyond a two-year deal for J.A. Happ and expect the left-hander to sign with another team, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb tweets. Several teams have offered Happ two-year contracts, though the latest reports have the veteran southpaw closing in on a three-year agreement to remain with the Yankees.
- Before the Mariners dealt Jean Segura to the Phillies for Carlos Santana and J.P. Crawford, Seattle also tried to obtain pitching prospect Spencer Howard in the trade, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. The 22-year-old Howard was a second-round pick for the Phillies in the 2017 draft, and he has posted big strikeout numbers over his first two professional seasons. Salibury figures other teams will also ask, or have already asked, about Howard’s availability, though the Phils surely aren’t too eager to part with such an intriguing young arm. There is a fair amount of other pitching depth in Philadelphia’s system, however, to potentially make Howard somewhat expendable at the right price. MLB.com ranks Howard a fairly modest 18th in their ranking of the top 30 Phillies prospects, with seven other pitchers ahead of Howard on the list.
Who was saying 16 to 18 months for TJ surgery? Lol, Cueto will be on the mound September as long as there is no set backs. That’s 12 months. Maybe a more serious surgery, but apparently not for this situation
Return, Months after surgery
Months GM’s IP # of Pitchers
1-11 87 106 18
12 124 155 22
13 128 179 19
14-16 129 239 20
17-20 102 254 21
21-24 122 195 18
25-100 49 104 23
fangraphs.com/tht/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates…
See any correlation between months off and IP?
I don’t know about all those stats, but what I can tell you is that it has to go by a case by case review. We don’t know the severity of each individuals damage, which equals to the time and length of recovery. In this case, Cueto obviously was a lesser case by his activity level at this point. My point in even stating this was, someone stated they don’t think a person can recover from TJ surgery in that length of time. False
It’s 16-18 months for full recovery 100%
Wrong again, you can’t put a recovery time for an injury on every persons surgery. Different severities equals different return times. Read article above.
I stand corrected, for 100% I can see that, but the only way to 100% is to recondition that arm on the mound.
Yup
Cueto had a partial tear, not a blown in half tendon.
TJ repairs UCL(ulnar collateral ligament), which tendon are you referring? The donor site?
Oh, sorry about that, partial ligament damage, is that better? Don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings. Lol, cmon man. Petty
I was simply clarifying, thought you may have some insight on his procedure. However, your projecting is a bit transparent.
I just gave ya some insight on his procedure. It wasn’t a blown out ligament it was a tear. As the article above states a return in August for rehab assignment, that puts his rehab at or around 12 to 13 months. I can only state what they are saying. And transparent how? Clarify?
Just to clarify…TJS is TJS. It doesn’t matter if it’s a full or partial tear. The damaged UCL is removed. I replacement ligament is removed, holes are drilled in the bone, new ligament is threaded through in a figure 8 pattern and stitched.
While it is correct that every patient is different and each timeline is different the research shows that the longer the recovery the more efficient the pitcher.
Studies also show that TJS isn’t always a cure-all like people tend to think.
“Don’t want hurt anyone’s feelings. Lol cmon man. Petty,” was what I meant by transparent projecting.
I think you too my meaning of “projecting” as literal. Everyone has different rehab timelines because we all heal and push our rehabilitation progress differently.
To state that there is an direct equivalency to the degree of tear and the length of rehab is a bit of an inaccurate generalization.
Some of your posts in this comment section have made s
Comment got cut off or my fat thumbs incorrectly posted early:
…”have made sense, not everyone rehabs at same rate. Cueto has shown in the past to recover from injuries a bit ahead of the projected timeline.
Your broad stroke comments, like most generalizations, are not quite accurate.
Your brain may be “blown out,” or maybe, simple knowledge and facts are all too elusive for the obvious pun handle of “Balk”
He had elbow issues his last 2 years with the Reds. I cant wait to see him at 100% in that big ballpark. That’s if he bounces back from the surgery.
You are actually listening to me he agent and taking his word? Agents like PR people have to paint everything rosey.
The giants can’t expect much from Cueto this season nor should they rush him back. They’re not going to the post season anyways.
Kikuchi to the Giants
Angels
Yankees
Barons
Expos
Hahahahaha
bhahahaha
Bahahaha, whatever
Canadiens
seibu Lions
Is Kikuchi any good? Does anyone have any real insight on his potential? Is he equivalent to a top 50 mlb prospect?
Most likely, but balk is as balk does
Derek Holland is smart..
Holland did a great job last year. Seems like a great locker room guy too.
Can we include Spencer Howard in the Seagura trade?? Jerry, you did ASK for a prospect didn’t you?? Jerry??
Noooo!