Astros owner Jim Crane gave some interesting comments today regarding his organization’s remaining plans for the winter and the state of the market at large, as MLB.com’s Alyson Footer of MLB.com reports on Twitter. It’s tough to tell the degree of interest, but Crane certainly seemed to indicate that the organization has some realistic inclination to bring back one or more of its recent players who remain available on the open market.
“We’ve got a couple guys that were here last year that are a possibility to be back here [this] year,” said Crane. “We hope that happens.” He went on to specifically cite southpaw Dallas Keuchel and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, both of whom are among the most-accomplished players who have yet to find new teams. Calling both Keuchel and Gonzalez “great players and great for the franchise,” Crane suggested there was at least a chance still of a reunion. “Maybe something will work out there,” he said, “who knows?”
It’s certainly arguable that both of those outgoing free agents still make sense on the roster. Between Keuchel and Charlie Morton, the Astros saw a lot of innings walk out the door. While there are options on hand to fill them, pursuit of another starter has long seemed sensible. It’s a bit of a tougher match with Gonzalez, particularly now that the Houston front office has acquired a potential replacement piece in Aledmys Diaz, but perhaps he’d still be of interest at the right price.
The club also bid adieu to several other veterans this winter, a few of whom have already signed elsewhere (including Morton). Backstop Martin Maldonado, southpaw reliever Tony Sipp, and DH Evan Gattis, however, all remain available after wrapping up their contracts with the ‘Stros. Among them, Sipp seems to represent the most sensible roster fit, though there’s no reason to think at this point that he’s a particular target.
However things shake out on Keuchel and Gonzalez, Crane’s comments didn’t admit of much of an opening for the team to pursue free agent market’s two biggest stars — or much of an appetite for any true blockbuster contracts in the future. Stating that the market is “a little bottled up” due to the ongoing presence of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, Crane went on to offer some revealing thoughts on the state of the hot stove economy and his own organization’s theoretical leanings.
“I think that teams are very focused on value,” said Crane of the business-wide approach to free agency. “I don’t know that you’ll see many more ten-year deals in this business anymore because the analytics are so good and a lot of those deals never work.”
The notion of value as an overriding concern — increasingly treated as something of an actuarial assessment of risk — is hardly a novel concept. But it’s interesting to see an owner not only come forward with that viewpoint, but to characterize it as an industry-wide phenomenon and acknowledge a particular practical ramification of such an approach.
Beyond those somewhat eyebrow-raising aspects of Crane’s comment, it’s also an interesting point to consider. It’s certainly possible to imagine decade-long deals that make sense, particularly for especially youthful players, even if it’s to be expected that the bulk of the on-field performance contributions will be reaped in such a contract’s earlier seasons. Beyond that, nobody really needed analytics to tell them of the concerns with guaranteeing so much money for so many years to one necessarily aging, potentially injured player. After all, the teams that have done so in the past did not tack on years and dollars because they preferred to; they simply did what it took to get the player in an open bidding situation.
Such elite players remain highly prized, of course, but the still-deepening analytical revolution — which has both recognized and helped usher in an influx of cheaply-acquired, increasingly well-prepared, league-minimum-earning players along with a youthened aging curve — has pointed to cheaper ways to maximize roster output while highlighting the financial risks of clogging future payrolls. The resulting reductions in demand have made it increasingly difficult for free agents to squeeze extra guaranteed seasons from clubs.
It’ll be interesting to see how things transpire this winter, with a pair of obvious candidates for extremely lengthy deals still waiting to sign them. While the Astros evidently will not be dabbling in such corners of the market, they’ll still be working to improve the roster in other ways — perhaps even by looking at the second tier of remaining free agents, which includes Keuchel, Gonzales, and others. “Every day we’re looking at opportunities,” says Crane.
Everyone, but Astros fans knew Harper/Machado was not a possibility. Crane is rubbing it in. 10 year min for both lol
I do think there’s a real possibility they re-sign Dallas.
the owners are setting the market. Even though the union and owners agreed this is the loop hole. a strike is bound to occur within 5 yrs “if” nothing changes for a free agent player.
I disagree. I think this market (or next off-season’s) will set a new precedence. Instead of 10 year deals, the new nprm will be 4-7 year deals with higher AAVs for the superstars. Instead of 10/300 mil, it will be 6/200. This will allow teams to pay the players will they are still performing, and also allows the players still performing to obtain another contract after the 6 year deal. If they get another 3/50 after that one, ultimately they made 250m over 9 years, but the terms were more conducive to their performance while also being beneficial to the teams. It’s a win-win for all.
Agreed
At no point did Astros fans realistically expect Harper or Machado. It’s fun to contemplate sure, but it’s absurd to think Lunhow would commit to a 10 year 300 mil contract.
No Astro fan should’ve ever thought machado considering the strength of your team is the infield. Aside from 1B which is merely average.
I’m good with Gurriel/White, average or not.
Yeah Analytics have nothing to do with why teams don’t want to give out 10 year deals anymore. Teams don’t want to give out 10 year deals anymore because they don’t want a pile of worthless crap taking up a roster spot like Pujols does for the Angels while making $25 mill every yr. And I think Heyward put a nail in the coffin for long contracts. That terrible signing has obviously hurt the Cubs ability to do anything meaningful in free agency. It’s not analytics, it’s common sense.
Lol they’re 26. They’d be more than half way down with a ten year deal to finally be as old as Pujols was when he signed his deal. Not comparable in any way.
Perfectly relevant comment. Albert was not the Pujols the Angels paid for starting in year one. He wasn’t even that player his final year in StL. Starting that year 31 season, the HR & RBI were there, but his BA & SLG dropped, his walk rate dropped dramatically. half. Year 31 season would be at that halfway point of a 10yr Harper/Machado contract, meaning a team could be paying for 5 decline seasons – the exact reason why most teams aren’t interested in more than a 7-8 year deal.
at least half of the contract they perform. who cares about performance, a team look at the overall. if he performed well half the contract amd Ws wont then he did jiv
Also not comparable because neither Harper or Machado are as good as Pujols was when he signed his contract. Neither player has the heart of Pujols either. Not to mention that the Angels banked on the finals years of Pujols contract being the years that he started setting records, and possibly make a run at 700 career homeruns. Neither of these guys are in that conversation.
The heart of a champion!
Well said
@zwmarting I believe Heyward was 26 when he signed with the Cubs.
Yep. Exactly right. And how has that worked out ? 🙁
World series champions
That’s is the question . How many gm’s if they had a crystal ball and knew they would win one World Series with a heyward contract would do it? Most if not all?
Despite his efforts.
zwmartin it’s absolutely relevant, and I’m well aware of their age. Neither was half the player as Pujols at 26 either. Heyward was young too before he got his 8 yr deal and he’s much more a comp than Pujols anyway. Heyward has similar WAR as Manny and Harper before the big contract too. Now it’s a mess like 99% of all of these long deals are.
Bush1, we can surely add Chris Davis to the list. Well I agree with much of what your fitness, analytics have definitely played a role in reevaluating player contracts. The analytics are further for proof that these contracts have largely been a bust for owners and management and overall organizational viability.
Hayward was a bad judgement on his hitting talent,I don’t know what the cubs or any team that was bidding on him saw?I remember thinking I hope my team doesn’t sign him,lol. I agree 10 yr.Guaranteed contracts with No Trade should be out the window,to much risk for a Franchise and when it fails the fans pay too.I can see 8years with a option of 2 Like I’ve called for Harper and wouldn’t even touch that with Machado who should do a 1 year to rebuild his image,then go back out.
Interesting how Theo keeps whiffing on big free agent deals…..
The players have brought this on themselves. You cant repeatedly put out a poor return on investment and seem shocked when the investors are suddenly hesitant.
Yes
Well said
I have been very (and pleasantly) surprised with how quiet Houston’s offseason has gone. Apparently the Astros are going with two rookies on their pitching staff, have made no significant bullpen upgrades, and lost four key members of their title run without making a strong response.
How anyone can say with a straight face that the team as currently constructed is on par with the Yankees and Red Sox, I don’t know. A team that loses Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton, and Marwin Gonzalez without getting as-good-or-better pieces is not a better team. The Astros will be forced to use their former depth to make up for the losses they’ve sustained. Their lineup is stacked but their pitching staff is not.
Of course, the Astros are still a very good team and doubtless will win their division yet again, but I suspect their World Series window will start to slowly close.
They still have 2 elite level guys in Verlander and Cole and add on top of it a full season of Osuna closing and it’s a great start. They’re not done adding an arm or two.
Yes they do have two elite guys, but the rest of the staff is sorely lacking. Praytell who are they going to add? Re-signing Keuchel is about the best they can do at this point, unless they pony up the prospects for Kluber, which Luhnow has been adamantly against. Like I said, it’s still a great team but not nearly as good as it once was
What I have expected all along is that they will sign a cheap bottom tier FA pitcher (I’d take a flyer on Ervin Santana who’s practically had a full year off to rest) to help eat innings. A combo of James, Valdez and Whitley will rotate in and out of the 5 slot to save innings on their arms. They will be able to win the division with what they have. Then, they make a move at the trade deadline just like they did when they acquired Verlander. I’m betting they want Bumgarner and need to see him pitch the first half to ensure he is healthy and back to form. There is no need to panic right now.
The time where a team must replace outbound free agents with as expensive or more expensive free agents to remain competitive is behind most ownership at this time.
If Houston makes zero moves for the rest of the off season, they still almost certainly win the division. From there, because of the strong farm system, they have the flexibility to see how the season plays out, identify where the biggest needs are for a post season run in July, and make the moves needed to win in October. This is a much smarter approach than spending capital to lock up guys to help the team win in April.
The Astros were so deep they had TWO competent starters in the pen: McHugh and Peacock. I doubt they are worried about finding competent starters.
Jeff Luhnow can make a splash at any moment. He has made trades that some thought were impossible/improbable the past few years. While the Yankees were giving up prospects for Sonny Gray, the Astros were waiting and welcoming Verlander into the clubhouse. Not to mention the Astros have 2 high ceiling rookies to start the season, and 2 more highly rated pitchers that could be here by August. Plus if Tucker figures out his swing this year then they will have a lineup that will match the Sox and Yanks without making any more moves.
Each time has a couple of ifs that can get them out front without other moves (above perfectly mentions Houston’s and to start for Boston it could be the return of Pedroia and for NY, a return to form from Sanchez). Wish the start if the season was here already. Hopefully the teams all stay healthy (Correa also) and let the best team win. The beauty of baseball is a team can get hot at any moment. Thus, even Cleveland could still be a factor in 2019. Imagine if Price pitched in 16 or 17 like last year, could Boston have beaten Houston? Last year if Bettentendi doesn’t catch that ball, Houston is back in business.
Great comment. These teams also all have until the trade deadline to made additions and tweaks to the ballclub. As an Astros fan I’m willing to ride with what’s here right now. There’s some unproven talent but there seems to be an abundance of it that is well-regarded, and there’s flexibility to make a trade or two at any time.
It will be tough to see Marwin in another uniform, but its difficult to imagine there’s room to bring him back unless a trade is made moving an outfielder. Whoever gets him will love him. He’s a battler and gets some clutch hits at times, and has a damn good glove anywhere you need to play him. If I had my way he’d be back and Reddick would be traded somehow.
Keuchel would be nice to have back if the dollars and years aren’t prohibitive. He’s still a solid mid-rotation guy but paying him like the ace he used to be is a tough sell. JV, Cole, Keuchel is still a nice top 3 when you factor a mix of McHugh, possibly Peacock and young arms like James, Valdez, Whitley, and Martin as guys who could make starts or help in the pen at some point. Hopefully they can work that out, but if not there are arms to search for a solution within to start the season at the very least.
There’s always trade possibilities as well. Tucker could either come on strong here or be moved for a key addition. Yordan Alvarez is another good young piece that could be moved, so there are plenty of options as the season gets underway for the Club to improve.
Amazing how now the teams with financial strength have to watch their budgets. Houston has some great young talent that if they choose to can be traded. Reddick? If that’s the team’s greatest issue, their in fine shape.
Agree on Marwin Gonzalez. I wish the Braves would’ve gave him a shot in RF as a full-time player. He can play anywhere, which is more of a focus these days. Position versatility and depth is the big trend, and Marwin can provide either or.
No, they can’t trade Alvarez, I won’t allow it. I think he will end up being an All-Star while Tucker will be average at best.
It is the teams who watch their budgets that have financial strength.
@astrosfanforlife, I think both will be above average, but Alvarez’s progression through the minors would be much more notable if it weren’t for Tucker plowing through the minors a bit faster. Looks like we have two good ones though.
I really like the raw power of Alvarez. I think Tucker’s swing needs a significant overhaul or he will never catch up to pitching in the big leagues.
Difference being is because of Lunhow’s approach to talent evaluation the Astros ifs have a habit of being right. Sanchez has shown no indication of returning to form and his defense has always been a liability. Pedroia might as well be David Wright at this point.
Players still seem to want the best of both worlds. 10 year contracts that pay them fair value (a lot) now and even more later by waiting until free agency. Team’s used to try to get “friendly” contracts on multiple young players (Indians in the 90s for example) so even if one player turned out to be a bust, they still were overall financially ok. Now tthat teams won’t pay for length with players again showing a normal aging curve, the answer is to allow free agency earlier, say four years or at age 27 but reward teams to be able to resign their own players at bigger contracts without penalty. Maybe years after five years, the cost against the luxury tax drops to 75%? I’ve had other past ideas and a combination of things might be discussed in a new CBA. Why wait when each side could get benefits by negotiating earlier? Mike Trout might actually stay in CA (which would be good for baseball) if the Angels can offer say 8 years averaging $30m per but for the last three, only $22.5m counts against the tax. Other teams might be scared to offer 8 years so he gets his money, the team gets security and the fans get serenity in knowing the star they grew up watching will remain. As a Yaz fan, I would have been crushed if he left after 1966 or 67.
IMO, the arbitration process needs to be completely overhauled. Team control is still important, as teams still need to have the security of atleast knowing a player will be with them for awhile – and I would hate to see more players changing teams more frequently. But they need to rework things so that more money can go to where the actual talent is coming from.
Keep the league minimum as is, but maybe shave of a year to where it’s two years of league minimum. That will still give teams a chance to have a really good player on the cheap for two years. After the two-year league-mininum time period, then it’s free agency. This will force teams’ hands more. If a team has a player like Acuna, then they cannot simply sit back and enjoy his production at a fraction of his worth. They’ll be forced to either give him a contract after his second season or risk letting him go play somewhere else.
In turn, the most productive players will get an increase in their pay. Teams will get a better return on investments, which in the long run will enable teams to actually have more money freed up.
this might be the most rediculous approach I’ve ever read. you must be a big market fan. 2 years of players after coming up from the minors would effectively kill small market teams. you would have such small windows to win and be unable to retain your own free agents.
they need to adjust the earnings of rookie level and arbitration level players. if years 1-3 they make a few million and arbitration salaries are increased, the teams won’t get such good bargains on young players, this helps them justify spending more in free agents.
the problem is, young players don’t have the voice in the MLBPA and the veterans had to endure the league minimum years so they think the young guys should too instead of thinking about what’s good for the whole union.
Like I said, be creative to give players money more in line to production but also give the team a reward or incentive to keep their own. Unless you play fantasy, being a fan of a small market club has to be frustrating. The only sport I am is the NFL where it doesn’t matter. What about the league doing something for the small market fan? The redistribution of luxury tax money hasn’t worked.
How would it kill small market teams? The rules would be the same for big market teams too. Getting rid of ARB years (or making them much shorter) will, yeah force teams to come of money, but ALL teams will have to do it (not just the Rays and A’s).
So if you’re worried about the Yankees stealing your favorite player than I wouldn’t worry too much, because guess what…? They have to pay their superstar players too, and so does the Dodgers, the Red Sox, the Cubs, and so on.
Eliminating the “bullying” and domination of super teams will never happen no matter what you do. But I don’t care about that, and I’m a Braves fan. This is about younger players getting the same opportunities as the veterans, since the younger players provide the value. And my idea of no ARB was just an idea. It doesn’t have to be completely gone. Theirs a million different ways.
This idea may be to drastic or a shift, IDK. Just a thought. But just think about players like Bregman and Jose Ramirez (a couple years ago). They would be getting paid what they are worth.
To add:
A market would develop for these “two-year” players as well. Teams will figure out what they can and cannot afford or risk to keep these players. It’s not like these young guys will be signing $30MM/year deals after two years in the Majors, but teams can offer them some security along with an actual salary that lines up with their value.
So say Acuna is good again this season (this is technically his rookie year in ’19), and 2020 is good. That’s close to three years already, and the Braves feel they want give him a contract..
The Yankees will have the same decisions with their young guys and so will the Red Sox and Astros.
Astros could use Realmuto more so than the Dodgers could.
They have Brantley and Springer in the OF with other guys on the way, not to mention Reddick as well for 2020. They could trade Tucker in a deal for Realmuto and sign Keuchel. Add Josh Harrison for a utility role since he will be cheaper than Marwin and that’s makes a very good team a great team.
Realmuto, Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman in the INF with Brantley, Springer, Reddick in the OF with White as the DH and Harrison as the utility guy.
Keuchel gives the rotation a big more stability so they only rely on 1 rookie in the rotation instead of 2.
Verlander, Cole, Keuchel, McHugh, (insert rookie).
Reddick for 2019*
They don’t need Harrison as a utility replacement for Marwin since they already traded for Diaz who has been a better player than Harrison and can duplicate what Marwin did for far less money
Diaz has an interesting bat but is a defensive liability, every positon he has played for, was at least below average, compared to Marwin, who is above average in every position. As of right now Diaz is not a good utility player, he is a bat with no position, he was only traded for depth. I will be disappointed if he is the Astros utility player to start the season.
Harrison can play the outfield too. Diaz doesn’t, therefore he is a backup infielder. Harrison is a true utility player – infield and outfield.
Tucker is the 8th best rated prospect in all of baseball. Astros have quality outfield now but are relatively weak at catcher. Marlins could always use a top prospect with their rebuilding plans. If the Astros were willing to include Tucker – what else would it take to make that trade happen?
On the pitching front, James could be a beast and Whitley is the top rated pitching prospect in all of baseball. Astros do a great job of drafting pitching talent. No need to trade any of those – wouldn’t we love to have Josh Hader back? Dallas is a great competitor. Would love to have him back at #3 salary for 3-4 year deal but not realistic. . His biggest problem is in hiring the wrong agent. Astros love Marwin. Marwin loves Astros. Make it happen Marwin! Great season ahead. Correa finds his swing. Springer hits for power and average and Bregman and Altuve are ….Bregman and Altuve. Always nice to look out and see JV and GC. Can’t keep this core together forever so enjoy it now and bring in a top caliber catcher!! Crane has a history of low key awesome additions at the right time.
Gattis in the old english D…c’mon Al!
Hard to compare Pujols and Harper… Pujols first 12 years in the league were much better than Harpers first 7. Harper’s average OPS is less than Pujols lowest. Harper’s MVP year is the only year that would compare to Pujols first 12.
And Pujols played a decent defense at third and was very good at first.
I think if MLB made a rule in which released players didn’t count toward the luxury tax payroll then the thought of an albatross contract in the owners eyes would be lessened.
It’s the flipside of the pendulum from pre free agency. You had almost all one year deal. When the decline started is when they began to move through teams. Teams weren’t locked into dead contracts. Now that we have analytics you can predict decline. We have also seen teams predicting growth. Astros with Morton did this well. Cubs with chateood did it poorly (so far)
Not sure why everyone doesn’t see the need to bring back Marwin. Gurriel will not be the 1B come opening today, they really want him to move around at 1B/3B/DH and just be power off the bench. Marwin is a switch hitter and has done well at 1B. The bullpen is really strong this year and could go down to 7. Extra infielders means more rest for Altuve and Correa. They have to be healthy for the post season. Kemp needs to be traded anyway, Brantley brings the same skill set to the table and more polished.
Would not have won the WS without Morton and McCullers, but both carrying injuries last year that hurt playoff success. McCullers has talent but the UCL wasn’t his biggest problem. Thank God for Charlie Morton but re-signing was too big of a risk. Hope he does well. Any sense including McCullers in a Kluber or DeGrom offer?McCullers should be back strong in 2020 and still controllable through 2021. DeGrom only through 2020.
What kind of word is “youthened”? My spellcheck didn’t even like it. How about “younger”? Yeah, that works.
As an Astro fan, I hope they re-sign both players.
What happens when Harper and Machado sign and the market can’t be bottled up anymore?