Tigers GM Al Avila suggested today that his eyes are still fixed well into the future, as Detroit’s WXYZ.com covers. That was largely safe to assume anyway, of course, but his discussion of the team’s financial planning is still important to note.
Avila did not just focus on the club’s expected arrival of new talent at the MLB level. As he put it, instead: “After 2020, our payroll will be in a lot better place for us to be aggressive going into 2021.” That focus on MLB spending is interesting for a few reasons.
For one thing, the difference between the 2020 and 2021 balance sheets isn’t hard to suss out. Both include $30MM for Miguel Cabrera; only the former comes with $25MM for Jordan Zimmermann and the final $6MM owed to Prince Fielder. Of course, those are the club’s only future commitments, so it still seems a bit curious to suggest that the long-term payroll trajectory is the driving force here.
Relatedly, it seems the organization has already largely decided that next winter won’t be an opportune time to push some cash onto the table. The Tigers have spent a decent bit of coin on one-year free agent deals since launching their rebuild, but mostly have targeted veteran gap-fillers who might turn into summer trade chips. It has long seemed interesting to wonder whether the club might consider putting its once-lofty payroll to use by chasing down some reasonably spendy players on the open market, even if it means taking a bit of risk. But it appears that will not be the case this winter or next.
So, when will the Tigers open things up? Avila didn’t make any promises, saying “we will have some money by 2021 to start going out there” but suggesting that hasn’t been pre-determined to be a breaking point. “Whether it be 2021 or 2022, at that point, we will be in a place, from a payroll perspective where I want to be at,” he said. Needless to say, it’s plenty understandable that the club has not yet decided how it’ll act at that point. And it’s also fair to avoid the setting of overly specific expectations. Still, the fuzzy future picture is no doubt less than inspiring for fans who may be looking ahead to two or three more clear rebuilding seasons.
While the Tigers have managed to draw down their spending over the past two years from its $200MM-ish heights in 2016-17, the club has never had a clear path to a quick rebuild. There was over $125MM on the books to open the 2018 season and there’ll be over $112MM to pay this year, due in no small part to ongoing obligations that are vestiges of the team’s last effort to contend. It has also taken a while to get the farm system producing again, too, as the club doesn’t seem to have come away from its post-contention veteran swaps with many significant assets and has only just begun reaping the rewards of top draft position. There are certainly some bright spots in the organization, especially with an intriguing mix of pitching talent building in the minors, but it seems the Detroit organization has no intentions of rushing the process.
Mark my words; Zimmermann will get traded. Full NTC in 2016-18 is downgraded to partial 10 team NTC in 2019-2020
With regards to article -I’ll believe they’ll spend, when see it. The rebuild was overdue and Miggy’s contract complicates things… certainly— but…It hasn’t been the same since the late great Mr. Ilitch’s passing. Talk to me in 2020-2021.
Think you are correct. With Boyd and Fuller for 4 more years and 5 top 100 rhp pitching prospects, including Mize, believe this is the last year of a Tiger rebuild.
If you think that in 2020, this team has enough to compete, well you might just be wrong.
Because you predicted their 2006 WS run?
No….no you didn’t.
K.
30 mil doesn’t mean squat to these teams. One bad contract doesn’t handcuff any team. Besides, cabrera fills the 1b/DH role.
They’ll be poised to offer Trout some insane money
Or Mookie Betts
Trout doesn’t wanna play in 313
Still can’t believe they extended Cabrera when they had no reason to. He’ll be making $30MM/yr for the next 5 years. Ridiculous. Especially after having negative WAR the other year,
Cabrera had some big 600 plus slugging years. He earned that contract, and if he’s healthy will still pay dividends in the coming years.
Giving him that contract with 2 years left on the previous contract was a terrible decision. Had they let VMart walk after 2014 and taken the compensation pick and then traded Cabrera for a boatload of prospects then too, the Tigers would likely still be competing in a weak al central
No, he’s a complete loss now…he is going to be hurt the rest of his career and already has proven to be a negative influence in the clubhouse…
Giving Cabrera that contract, when the Tigers and the rest of baseball were witnessing what was happening with long-term, mega deals for older players, was a horrible decision, regardless of his production leading up to it. I can’t remember one person saying the Tigers made a good deal…most (if not all) were stunned at the foolishness of the deal.
Also, it’s likely that Cabrera’s contract has led directly to what MLB has been witnessing over the last few years, with teams reluctant to give out big contracts. It might have been a wake-up call, or the proverbial straw. MLB executives were outraged at the amount of money Illitch guaranteed an older player, and it probably caused all of them to say…”Wait a minute. What the heck are we doing?”
Cabrera and the Tigers are not completely responsible, but it’s likely what was the final piece in forever changing the economics to older players, especially when it comes to free agency.
@ Tom;
Great post!
Disagree.
can’t predict the future…atm it was worth the contract. his potential future years of legacy the tigers saw dollars as the angels did with pujols
The Angels stadium was not even filled to watch one of the greatest hitters of all time get his 600th and 3000th. Legacy means nothing to FA’s.
Now, put Albert back in STL…
He’s been playing hurt the past couple seasons. We’ll see how this year goes
No reason to? Hahahaha
Well, I hope they don’t start losing fan base through these lean years. Might be hard to get the fans back again, if ever.
I still watched Bobby Higginson, Damion Easley and the like….this rebuild is fun!
Nothing more fun than watching hitters struggle to stay over the .200 batting line.
they can solve that problem by cutting Jacoby Jones’s playing time.
Nonsense; 2003 they lose 119 games then by 2006 they hit the world series and start an attendance run of that averaged over two and a half million fans for over a decade.
There is nothing to support your opinion that fans won’t come back.
The fans didn’t come back on their own. MR I made an expensive effort to bring them back. Pudge’s signing(04)opened the door to FA that previously avoided Detroit. Magglio followed in 2005. Mr I brought the fans back.
No, winning brought the fans back. If they had continued losing, the $ would have been wasted.
Oh, brother. The year they win 90 games again, everyone will be back on the bandwagon.
Speaking of ‘band’ wagons, sure glad I didn’t waste money to see Neil Young on his Trans tour. That doesn’t diminish my respect and appreciation for the great material he’s done prior and since.
Best definition of bandwagonning in sports is folk who know next-to-nothing about a given sport or team and only show up when it seems fashionable to do so.
are there any other MLB teams close? I feel like a fan will stick it out for the love of the game.
Bye!!
As much as I like the transparency in setting reasonable expectations (as opposed to GMs who say they’ll spend money and never do), being so candid about not winning now gives me little reason to go to Tigers games this year.
Nothing was said about not winning. They were talking payroll. If you think they go hand in hand, Tampa Bay and Oakland say Hi. No one was expecting them to contend in 2006. Surprises happen and the division is weak.
Cool! I’m willing to betcha ten thousand dollars right now that the Tigers do not make the playoffs this season! You in?
what odds are you giving?
Hi, two teams with a combined one playoff berth and zero playoff wins in 2018.
90 wins is entertaining, and worth watching.,regardless of playoffs.
wether it was said or not, you, I, and all of us know the tigers wounldnt be trying this year.
They’re trying, just not in the way you want.
Have fun not watching! Won’t miss u
It’s a necessarily evil unfortunately, they simple had too many hefty contracts on the books. No easy feat, but once their top pitching prospects mature they can become competitive once again. Until then…
This is the way the baseball ends
This is the way the baseball ends
Not with a bang
But with a $
The top 2 position players and the # 2 starting pitcher and the # 1 reliever are still on the board. Most teams could be contenders if they signed all 4.. Outrageous money you say:
yes: In 2004, Major League Baseball team had an estimated value of 295 million U.S. dollars on average according to Forbes. In its 2018 edition of MLB team valuations, Forbes estimates the average franchise value at 1.65 billion U.S. dollars. I make that to be a 560% increase in team values since 2004: since all those big long term contracts that are supposedly killing the game have been in play since then, one would expect to see the MLB faltering in value: clearly it is not. Increasing in value 5.6 times 2004 worth while those contacts were let. Now players contracts are falling in the face of skyrocketing values: I smell a skunk. Fans have been mislead: The player contracts aren’t hurting baseball at all. The numbers prove this. while the fans decry the players getting a so much when the reality is their piece of what they have produced actually falls while the MLB BOOMS in incomes and values.
Making money or not, it is clearly in the player’s best interest to want a 10 year deal. With that being said, the guys getting shorter deals are not receiving AAV many thought they would be getting. If the AAV was high but for shorter deals, I’d say it’s just the team’s choice to not hand out long term deals. But seeing that many good players are getting neither shows things will come to a boiling point.
How many millions is enough to get the last 3 outs of a game with a 1-3 run lead?
Kimbrel is trying to find out as we speak
However, baseball operations cost skyrockets too? Baseball is a big diversified business operation now more, tech jobs, medical jobs, development jobs, accounting jobs. Player, owner, front office, fans? Not just anymore. Big staff, all services for find develop maintain great game product.
It is clear looking at the publicly available data: the costs are not hurting the teams at all. You don’t increase 560% in value if your costs are skyrocketing compared to your incomes. The cost of Administrative isn’t driving down values neither are long term big money contracts
But valuations don’t always represent profits. Owners some lose money. But we all win if all sides don’t let greed ruin good baseball
Deadspin: “If there is a thread running through all of these financial statements, it is the incredible ability of baseball teams — whether they’re winners or losers, big market or small, “rich” or “poor” — to make their owners a fat pile of money.”
Over 20 yeas ago; Forbes Magazine 2002: “No wonder Paul Beeston, a former executive of the Toronto Blue Jays and former president of MLB, once boasted, “I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss and get every national accounting firm to agree with me.” ”
They aren’t telling the public the truth: their market value is. You can’t build a 560% increase in market value without a massive profit.
Me thinks the value of the franchise is over inflated, just as the predicted contracts are. The Marlins sold for much less than predicted, due to a lack of bidders. Sound familiar? Value is speculation.
This is a fair point, yet if you suggested the Marlins would sell for as much as they did back in 2000, you’d have been laughed at. It’s hard to argue that baseball as a whole, as well as it’s franchises, isn’t doing extremely well financially
Why shouldn’t you be able to? It’s the owner’s money on the line. Not only that, the owner’s money is tied to a sport, which, despite seeming like a good investment in the window we all see, is a strike, a calamity, or a war away from completely going down the toilet.
Tigers fan base and Marlins fan base are night and day. Trust me, when they sell in the 2019 off season, it will have plenty of bidders and for much more than that pitiful Marlins team. Not even close to a good a comparison.
Fans are mislead? You read the comments from many on this site? They think the players should be paid more, and I’d say it’s above 50% of the commenters here. Funny, they probably still want a luxury tax or soft cap despite wishing players took more money which is counterproductive.
Baseball will run into trouble when the current 50-something year olds pass. Much like Boxing, propped up by the older generation.
If you’re using Deadspin as a source it’s probably false. Sorry to say.
@ TrimReaper;
Yes, valuations are totally speculative.
They’re based on expectations of ever expanding future growth and profitability. Look at how the stock market will value hot sectors. Check out the speculative run-up in both tech stocks and real estate in the late 1990’s-early 2000’s. Investors were leveraging to get as much exposure as possible. The economy slowed a bit, which was not unusual as economic cycles are normal. But due to leverage – i.e. carrying heavy debt – some liquidation had to take place to meet margin and interest calls, which ultimately snowballed and led to the 2008 economic collapse.
Long-term escalating player contracts as their skills and production are diminishing is MLB’s leverage. The Tigers are the quintessential example of what happens when an MLB team goes that route.
Via the marketplace, owners are right to reel those out of control obligations in. Not only do they potentially face major losses each year, but if forced to sell the franchise, they will get what stockholders and real estate owners got for their properties in 2008-12……nowhere near what they had been valued at.
In short, MLB is either close to, or in, a speculative bubble.
Sam: For the longest time I agreed with you…now I’m not that sure the bubble is going to burst. The long term broadcast/streaming deals, MGM gambling involvement, are newly discovered oil wells. And the ownership profile has definitely changed; John Henry (among others) have shown that owning a MLB team is not just a great tax-avoidance vehicle, but can actually serve as a profit center for other ventures. Even the perpetually poor-mouth crying Rays just bought a soccer team.
Expansion, realignment, more and more “playoff” games are all on the horizon. Let’s not forget MLB has one HUGE advantage; fresh programing in the summer. The MLB network has, per Variety, been the greatest cable success story in history; gobs and gobs of free programing, almost incidental operating expenses.
There are storm clouds out there, no one denies it; counties and states have lost their desire to fund stadiums, e.g. But with ever increasing revenues, and ever shrinking expenses (suppression of salaries, technology replacing many operational costs) , the future is still pretty rosy. Maybe not as rosy as it has been; the Golden Age is probably over. And economically you’re probably smarter to invest in a chain of Mc-Cannibis Drive-Thru-s than an MLB team. But you don’t get the tax goodies selling “Weed Happy Meals”.
And I’m not sure this paradigm of an ever-ageing fan base is accurate. We don’t have the technology to count streaming data; who knows how many teens streamed the World Series…we don’t know. Yet.
Like I said, the bubble may have to be reshaped…..but these are pretty smart folks.
bob;
I wrote you a long comment that has been held from view. When it happens that quickly, it means that questionable words were used. I saw some a scanning program would pick up, but in context they were not offensive.
Extremely short response…….
Lots of parallels between horse racing of 30-35 years ago, and MLB today. Most people under 40 care little about MLB. There are plenty of sites on the Internet to gamble…..including on sporting events. Streaming options abound, and MLB.TV already picks up the games.
The costs – and a lot of hidden costs – of getting into those markets are being ignored. In fact, the ROI (Return On Investment) forecast is very probably grossly over-estimated.
There is too much competition in those areas, and the trend of people following MLB is slowly dropping as happened in horse racing.
I think we’re in agreement that the landscape is changing. I perhaps have more confidence in the John Henry-s of the world to react to those changes than you do. Many saw the death of McDonald’s when people started getting health conscious about their eating habits. What happened? McDonald’s is doing better today than it ever has.
Not that there weren’t bumps along the way; remember Mc-Pizza? But it’s been their Front Office’s (if you will) ability to react that’s kept them where they are.
I share your notion that the 2020-s won’t be as profitable as the past 10 years have been; it’s a record that’s hard to match, where even “bad” franchises tripled in value. But there’s still some gold in dem dere hills.
I wish I had read this two weeks ago, but there is absolutely NO parallel between Horse Racing and MLB, NONE. The lottery killed much of the racing, especially harness, which wasn’t seen as authentic by fans of the flats anyway and had a much smaller profit margin for owners and trainers. The thoroughbreds are hanging on in the larger market areas but regardless, people were wringing their hands over demographics three decades ago regarding MLB, and even if it was a concern, the country is demographically older and will be for two more generations assuming the current birth rate and rate of immigration from S and C America, which by the way, is a great source of MLB fan base.
While I am the last guy to agree with let the rich get richer, we have to look at this as a business. The owners are in it to make money basically, and for the most part nothing else. Pretty much most owners outside of Mr. Illitch (thank you for the many years of trying to win) would much rather make money and lose than lose money and win the W.S., it’s that simple. We can only hope that the son starts to care about winning soon.
Lol you’re funny
I wish the owners would volunteer the team to eat league bad contracts to try to contend while rebuilding.
Hey, Indians, you like you a Castellanos and Green? We’ll take a Kipnis and Triston McKenzie.
Yankees, we’ll love your Elsbury and a top ten talent for Fulmer
To me this is the most indefensible point against owners.
There’s no reason the White Sox should need to cut their payroll in half for a rebuild. Yes, it makes no sense to make short term moves, but any rebuilding team should be willing to pay the price to acquire prospects.
I like everything you said but Elsbury
Ejemp2006, Your trade made no sense in another thread. Why would it make sense here. Cleveland is not trading their top prospect McKenzie for a rental. Quit trying while you are behind.
Ask for the moon and stars, smile when you come back with only the moon! My point, send our best and take on bad contracts plus great prospects.
Ask for the moon and stars and Castellanos will still be a Tiger. If that is what the Tigers are asking for, it is no wonder that he is drawing little interest. You also have to remember his defense is also a strike against getting a strong package from another team.
I think the 2017 Tigers revenue was 277 million, Yankees 600 plus. Is this money net income? Or is this before players salary & expenses are taken out?
Before salary & expenses are taken out. For another data point, Rangers revenue in 2017 was 311 million.
Now I can see why smaller market teams are cutting back on spending. And the importance of having a steady stream of young talent coming up.
Sigh
So $30 million comes off of the books in 2021. That will buy us 6-$5 million veterans.
Actually, it will allow the Tigers to pay young, improving core players increased salaries, and bring in some older players to augment them.
What % of revenues should the players get? What is “their fair share”?
10%? 50%? 99%?
Keep in mind, if you say they deserve 100% of the revenues, you are saying that teams shouldn’t pay taxes and that none of their other employees should be paid.
So, what is a fair % for the players?
Only what the owners are willing to pay them is “what is fair”
Perhaps true from the owners’ point of view.
One man’s fair is another man’s foul.
What’s happening now is this…..
Owners are using business people, computers, analytical people, and highly-paid advisers to maximize returns per dollars spent. Primarily they are trying to minimize risk, as they don’t want to find their team paralyzed as the Tigers are, while hearing comments such as “it’s their own fault for giving out those contracts”.
Players/agents are basing their salaries on continued increase growth and tie that to revenues. Therefore they are ignoring percentage costs which are growing far faster then revenues. By demanding a set percentage of revenues they guarantee 2 things:
1. Owners will not be “at fault” for giving out bad contracts – they’ll be forced to.
2. Small and mid market teams (approximately 20 of the 30) will never be serious contenders for a championship as it will mandate they spend the same percentage of their revenues as the large market teams do on payroll. So they cannot pour additional monies into building a strong farm system to harvest superior players; and they will never be able to rollout a young growing team that get increased salaries, plus pay some veterans to come in to compliment that core. Rather, their rosters will primarily be made up of rejects and secondary players from the large market teams.
finally a valid point. what the players desevre is relative and at the choice of the organization. while in many cases it’s fair to say workers are underpaid, i cant say i feel bad for a guy for only getting a few million dollars as opposed to several. while i think owners are not spending as much as they should, i think the fear over dangerous contracts is perfectly valid, and the issue of these ruinous contracts should be revisited by the league.
Why did ownership allow Zimmermann to be hired knowing they would likely not be in contention in the final years of his contract? It’s not like the guy was an all world pitcher with Washington. I get the Cabrera deal the guy is a legend and future hall of famer but the Zimmermann deal never made sense to me.
Zimmerman has been in the injury zone the last three seasons. He may bounce back in (19, 20), and be a vital arm in the rotation. Miguel can put the team on his back & carry them to a Central title. Too early to judge either of their contracts
Division title?! First you’re saying fans are quitting now you’re just delusional.
I’m talking AL Central here, not AL East.
Four straight seasons of 32+ starts and 3+ WAR
Good thing u don’t sign the checks
Standings on 6-12-18, the day Cabrera was injured. Cle-Min(5), Det(5.5), Chw(12), Kcr(14).
5.5 games back two months into the season is not good…
Baltimore was 30 games out by that point lol.
In 2012 Oakland trailed the Rangers by 5 games on Sept 24th. The A’s came back to win the West.
I remember.
That’s why it ain’t over til it’s deja vu all over again.
Not trying to defend the guy, but the timetable is fairly reasonable providing normal progression of pitching prospects. Unless one or more become the next JV(we can only hope) they won’t need to spend until 2021. Now that doesn’t mean we as fans should be happy with not much better than a AAA ball club until then, but we should hopefully start seeing some decent prospects developing into decent major leaguers in that time also. Depending on the talent available before then, maybe a quality FA signing before 2021 depending who is eligible and what they might presumably need. We shall see.
The whole “rebuild” is a scam, the Tigers extremely loyal fan base is being given two middle fingers by the cheapskate Illitch in charge, who has resorted to a slum lord approach to running the business.
To think the Tigers are already planning on mailing it in not just this season but next year as well is a slap in the face to so many people. And over what… $30 million… big freaking deal. The franchise continues to increase in value year after year, yet Illitch Jr. prioritizes turning a profit off a terrible team… as if their estimated $6.1 billion fortune needs more growth.
I really hope the Illitch’s do the city a favor and sell the team to someone more motivated and put an end to this embarrassing situation. The 2019 team has the potential to be one of the absolute worst teams the Tigers have ever fielded in the history of the club.
The Tigers have many needs and no team can afford FA at every position. Currently, none of the prospects who have made it up are a sure thing. If JaCoby Jones hits, CF is covered. If not, it still needs to be filled. This is also true of Mahtook, Candelario, Goodrum, Reyes, and Stewart. Plus no minor league prospect is a sure thing. Even Fullmer is a question mark. Until some of the young players make or break, it makes no sense to sign any player to a long term contract. They need to have some keepers before filling holes.
The Tigers are a train wreck. They literally have zero chance even if they spent big in free agency. The best thing for the team is massive tanking. It sucks, but is what it is. I went through it as a Cub fan and it’s well
worth it, if some correctly. That being said I’ve got no idea if Avila is a guy who can pull the rebuild off correctly.
The Tigers have to build a core internally. It doesn’t make sense to buy pieces until that core is in place. The Tigers hope that the core is ready by the time the old heavy contracts are up with the lone exception of Miguel Cabrera. It is more likely that they won’t be ready until Cabrera’s contract is up in 2024.
The Detroit Tigers are FOR SALE.
Exciting times in Detroit. Lol.