The Phillies and Aaron Nola have not had any “substantive” discussions regarding a long-term contract extension, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic in a much broader exploration of Nola’s contractual status and pending arbitration case (subscription required). The two sides are facing a $2.25MM gap between the $4.5MM at which the Phillies filed and the $6.75MM at which Nola and Paragon Sports filed.
A hearing is set for Feb. 14, and with no real talks on a multi-year deal taking place to this point, it seems all the likelier that Nola’s case will be resolved in front of an arbitration panel. There’s no immediate urgency for the Phillies to lock Nola up to a long-term contract, and it’s certainly possible that the right-hander’s preference is simply to go year-to-year through arbitration until reaching free agency upon completion of the 2021 season. Both Nola and Yankees right-hander Luis Severino are important cases for future first-time-eligible starters in arbitration; with the exception of Dallas Keuchel (who is anomalous, having entered arbitration fresh off a Cy Young win), no first-time starter has topped the $4.35MM that Dontrelle Willis received way back in 2006. It’s a stunningly outdated number, and arb victories for Nola and/or Severino would help move the needle forward for future starting pitchers.
More from the division…
- Prior to re-signing with the Braves on a one-year contract, Nick Markakis had interest from the division-rival Marlins, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. It’s one of the few times this offseason that the Miami organization has been connected to virtually any sort of free agent, as the vast majority of their offseason has centered around the apparently interminable J.T. Realmuto trade saga. Heyman notes that Miami is still seeking a left-handed bat — likely an outfielder — though it’s likely that they prefer to see what the return for Realmuto brings before committing any spots to veteran free agents.
- Speaking of the great Realmuto staredown, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes in his latest Inbox column that the Marlins are still insisting that the Braves include one of their current position players in a trade for the All-Star catcher. So long as that continues to be the price, Bowman writes, it’s unlikely that the Braves will cave into the Marlins’ demands. Bowman also projects that the Braves are about $15MM away from ownership’s top-approved budget level, noting that the team would like to preserve some of those resources for in-season additions when the need arises.
- In another MLB.com Inbox, Jamal Collier writes that the Nationals are still in the mix for Bryce Harper and takes his best guess at how the organization will ultimately act with regards to Harper and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Collier also adds that it’s unlikely the Nationals add another reliever on a market-value contract, adding the caveat that the Nats might make a very late addition to the relief corps if a quality reliever’s market collapses and renders his price point well south of expected levels. In a separate piece, Collier opines that a left-handed reliever would be ideal for the Nats, who tend to use Sean Doolittle in save situations and otherwise have only Matt Grace and Sammy Solis (who struggled through an awful down season in ’18) as the other two options on the 40-man roster. Non-roster invitee Vidal Nuno will also be given a chance, but it’s possible the market does yield an unexpectedly affordable left-handed upgrade, given the bulk of relievers who’ve yet to sign.
Offering Nola $4.5M after the season he just had is a slap to the face.
Only if you’re likening it to his full market value. They did offer him a raise on the top non-Cy-Young precedent — albeit a slight one. But there’s really no reason for teams to ever willfully move the needle forward. If they shrugged and settled at $5.25M for Nola without a hearing, then he just becomes a data point for future starters in Arb1 throughout the league — for the Phillies and every other team.
Arbitration itself is archaic and needs a facelift, but a figure in that range was widely expected, and Nola/his agent surely understand that. They operated in a similar capacity (filing a bit south of the all-time precedent holder for an Arb1 SP).
Dontrell Willis lmao
What are everyone’s opinions on how the Marlins are handling the rebuild so far? Seems like they kinda botched the Yelich & Ozuna deals, the Stanton trade while more about shedding money, yielded nothing special, and it seems like they are holding out on a return for JTR, that might not happen. Weak farm, weak MLB squad, and no signs yet, that they are getting any better for the future. Train wreck franchise.
The Marlins got a ton in the Yelich deal. It looks bad in hindsight, only cause Yelich went on to win the MVP. However, Monte Harrison should end up being a an above average OF, hopefully Diaz is there every day second basemen beginning in 2020, Hopefully Yamamoto can hold down a rotation spot for many years, probably as a #5, and Hopefully Lewis Brinson becomes an everyday regular. If that all happens, which is totally plausible, it’s not like I’m hoping everyone becomes an all star or Brinson wins a batting title lol. If they all become everyday players, or close to it, I think the marlins would be satisfied.
Why would you say they botched the Yelich and Ozuna deals? They got two potential starting outfielders in Brimson and Harrison, a potential starting second baseman, and a potential mid to back end of the rotation starter. You can’t pass judgement on that deal until you see how these guys pan out. Remember the Marlins wanted to keep Yelich but he didn’t want to go through a rebuild. Ozuna who didn’t exactly go bonkers last season, they got Alcantrara, a starter they are very high on, Sierra who is a speedy number 4 OF likely and Gallen who we might see as a back of the rotation starter. I don’t know that Ozuna could bring in the same group today. But bottom line until you see how these guys develop you really can’t pass judgement, especially in the Yelich deal.
Yelich deal is the only thing I’ve disagreed on. not bc of the return we got, but bc Yelich should have never been traded.
Farm system was dead last when the Sherman/ Jeter took over. Now it should be middle of the pack. That alone is the definition of progress. I personally do not see a train wreck franchise as it was with Loria. Not to mention how aggressive they were in signing the highest rated prospect in the international pool, which was unheard of in Marlins history. I’m Cautiously optimistic.
JTR deal should bring back a good haul. Soon we’ll all know just how good. And I’m happy they’re holding out for a big return. Yankees do it. Cleve doing it with Kluber. Etc.
Curious to know how you got to the opinion that the the fish are still a train wreck franchise?
Why shouldn’t they have traded Yelich. Don’t point to last year as a reason. Nobody was picking Yelich to be the MVP. By the time the Marlins finish the rebuild he would be 30.
Using your example, by age 30 he would still have 1 year left on his insanely cap friendly contract with moment to re-up with the Marlins.
MVP season aside, he’s contract and talent was too good to give up on. That’s why I feel it was a mistake.
He would have been unhappy and not have performed as well as he did.
I also wonder (and would welcome opinions) as to whether Yelich would have been voted MVP had he been a Marlin last season. Two things to consider – the trend is generally to lean more towards players on contending teams (Trout being an obvious exception), and having to consider if Yelich could have put up those numbers with nowhere near as much protection in the Marlin’s daily lineup. Thoughts? I personally doubt he’d have gotten the MVP playing in Miami.
I don’t believe anyone would’ve guessed Yelich would’ve won the MVP on his 1st year with the Brewers. However, Yelich has always had the ability to win Batting titles, had plus speed and solid defense. The power would gradually increase every year. Everything finally clicked simultaneously, which resulted in his greatest season to date.
To answer your question, playing in Miami he wouldn’t have gotten the MVP, mostly due to the fact that the Marlins had no SP’ing whatsoever and most likely would not have been a postseason threat, let alone championship contending squad Like the Brewers were. However, Yelich would’ve def posted career year stats worthy of an MVP. He’s def always been capable of that.
The only way you can justify your expectations of Yelich winning batting titles is in hindsight. You can’t point to anything.
Here’s a scouting report for Yelich.
Nothing about him winning batting titles and they top him out at 25 home runs. Do you have a source that validates your claim of the guy?
You’re an absolute clown. His rookie league scouting report? Yelich has long had elite bat to ball skills and the ability to spray it all over the field. Obviously with physical maturity more pop could come with that. Do you think these guys have crystal balls? No one knows how these kids will really be in A Ball. That’s why guys bust and others go to their ceilings. I’m sure Trout’s scouting report didn’t say he was going to be the perennial best player in baseball either
The Stanton trade was necessary because of how humongous his contract was. That salary relief alone is enough to justify the deal. Jose Devers will at the very least, be a valuable defensive UT player. Maybe he pans out to be a .270 hitter who plays above average defense. Jorge Guzman May become a No 2 starter but if not, he may develop into a closer and at the very least will be a setup man. Starlin Castro is a solid vet who I’m sure had an influence on younger guys. He’s another guy who will likely net them a prospect or two at the deadline this year. The Ozuna trade: they get Alcantara who looks to be a surefire No 2/3 starter. Sierra has the look of a very good no 4 outfielder. Gallen has a look of a No 5 starter. For the Yelich deal, Brinson and Harrison both have potential to be solid above average outfielders who hit for power and have plus speed and play. Yes they both have flaws but they have relatively high floors. I think Brinson takes the next step this year and he alone has 25-30 HR, gold glove potential. Isan diaz will be a stud 2B cable of 15-20 HR and 70+ RBI annually with solid defense. Yamatomo has the appeal of a No 4/5 also. Dee Gordon brought in Neidert, potentially a No 3. Besides that, the Marlins seemed to have targeted players that can be at the very least, solid every day players. Guys who can fill out roles on a winning team. Maybe in a couple years they go out and sign a superstar like George Springer or someone to get them over the hump. But this is definitely the most pitching depth I’ve seen in this organization in my 15 years following the team and the new management seems to be looking for the right type of players. Pitching and defense wins championships.I think the rebuild is going well and they will be contenders by 2022.
I’ll fall in line with the other opinions regarding the Yelich and Ozuna trades. It’s too early to evaluate those trades. If we come away with a couple of starting OFs, 2 SPs, and a starting 2B for Yelich and Ozuna, I’m not sure what else a team can ask for in a trade for two players. It isn’t like any team has 3 guaranteed future All Stars in their systems to trade for any one player. All a team can do when they need to trade away guys like Yelich and Ozuna, is get as much as you can from a team that is willing to give you the prospects. If you got multiple guys to fill your MLB roster on a playoff contender, you can’t ask for much more than that. If you do get more than that (like a couple or few All Stars), you got a bonus that rarely happens.
Hit the nail on the head. Well said, sir.
Couldn’t have said it better
could you imagine a team with players like Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto, Dee Gordon, Prado, etc. plus a good young pitching staff?!?!… Man that would be a playoff contender if given time to grow….oh wait
Would also cost $200 million which is not a feasible payroll… Stop being a rebunkious troll. Also, we lost Jose Fernandez, who would’ve easily been the best starting pitcher in baseball today. Keep that in mind, bud.
ok bud, my point was Jeter should’ve given them time to grow and compete instead of blowing it up. I would take that outfield right now in a heart beat. Not being a rebunk- whatever you said troll…not everyone who says something on here others might not like is a troll, you’ve just been trained to react that way
There was a team like that, but they never even played .500. Their best pitcher died; their 2nd best pitcher’s arm fell apart; another big free agent pitcher’s arm fell apart, etc.
Damn your brainwashed. They traded the basics of a winning team just the last 2 seasons. Not counting the pitiful returns (some not most, to be fair) Marlins fans keep trying to defend, 3 all stars is enough for any team to build on if they wanted to. But whats the point when they have fans like you to defend them and preach about how if every guy they ever traded for reach their absolute ceiling the trades would t have been that bad?
The nobody knew Yelich was this good defence is a bit of a copout also, everyone knew he was on a trajectory up during the trading window, there were countless articles on the advanced stats proving it.
Phillies want to spend dumb money this offseason. Your going to be stickler with a pitcher that will be an ace. They are going to mess this up with Nola and lose him after arbitration. Then they will have trade a bunch prospects to get an ace when they could have kept their own. I get they think Harper and Machado are good but they cant play every position on the field
They have control of Nola for a few years, so there is absolutely no rush to come to a long-term deal if they want to spend money elsewhere.
If you had a coupon for a week of the best steaks for $5 a piece, would you willingly pay $30 for the same steak and ignore the coupon?
Had Jfern not passed away, it’s arguable that the Marlins would still have at least Yelich, and Stanton to go along with Fernandez.
Braves could include Swanson in a package for Realmulto and make Camargo an everyday SS with Culberson as a super U. The FA market is full of low-mid tier back=up and bench options for the Braves to resupply.
Swanson, Ian, and Riley would def do it.
Way way too much. Two top-50 prospects and a starting SS for 2 years of Realmuto? Pass.
You can keep JT
Woh Woh Woh..overpay
That’s a terrible trade mjm
Stop giving away our top defensive shortstop!! lol jeez.
I’m with you. You have to give up something to get something. If we could get Straily back as well, I’d send Swanson, Flowers (because they’ll need a catcher and we won’t need 3), Riley, and either Anderson, Allard, or Soroka.
Way way too much. Why on earth would the Braves want Straily? They’ll start Soroka first. If they trade Swanson and Riley, who will play short or third in 2020?
I feel like you were trying to be funny.
Everybody’s neglecting 3 things that are probably going to seal a Realmuto deal; they’re named Chen, Prado and Castro. If ANY team takes any of those contracts, the prospect cost drops precipitously.
Will it be a PR nightmare? Of course it will. But what is that REALLY going to mean? 980,000 in attendance instead of 990,000? You can’t put enough fannies in the seats to offset the potential payroll savings. If the Red Sox eat Chen’s deal, they’ll probably get some Marlin prospects BACK in the deal. And give Miami four low level prospects from a barren system.
Will Jeter do it? He might be forced to.
The Marlins have already said they would not except a cash dump deal for Realmuto. They are only looking for top talent.
Jeter and Co have already said they would not dilute the return for JTR by including anyone of those 3 players. They won’t be included in any JTR deal.
Also, Marlins payroll is already in the bottom of the league and those 3 players contract are up within 2 years respectively.
There’s no advantage to including either one of them in the JTR. Jeter will not be forced to do anything continue to hold out for a team to meet their demands to trade JTR
3 years.* Chen’s contract expires in ‘21.
It’s only 3 years more if he reaches the vesting option of 180 innings in 2020 or 360 innings combined for 2019-20. I think as he ages, it’s not likely he’ll be with the Marlins beyond 2020.
The Dodgers will own Realmuto before the weekend is over. Joc’s trade to White Sox is being finalized. Some of those players, plus Dodgers prospects are going to the Marlins.
I’m down for Verdugo and Ruiz as headliners
Weekend is over and JTR is still a Marlin.
I think the new ownership made one error.
The year they took over, that team,
Ozuna, Stanton, Yelich, Gordon etc….
I felt was 2 above avg S’s away from contending in what was/is a weak division.
I would have signed 2 FA SP and made a run before blowing it up. But they severely overpaid and needed to cut payroll immediately.
FYI…adding the pitchers they needed would have put their payroll among the big market teams.
The Nats might lose Barraclough and Taylor soon … might be enough to pick up Greg Holland and a southpaw like Dan Jennings
1) Inciarte. CF. LH
2) Albies. 2B. SH
3) Acuna. LF. RH
4) Freeman 1B. LH
5) Donaldson 3B. RH
6) Kakis/Duvall. RF
7) Flo/Mac. C
8) Swanson. SS. RH
1) Viz 2) Minter 3) ODay 4) Venters
5) Soboka 6) Fried 7) Caryle 8) Freeman
1: Inciarte (L) CF
2: Donaldson (R) 3B
3: Freeman (L) 1B
4: Acuña (R) LF
5: Realmuto (R) C
6: Albies (S) 2B
7: Markakis (L) RF
8: Swanson (R) SS
Trade to Miami: Duvall, Riley, Allard & Wright
No to Riley…only if it’s JTR &
Brian Anderson will we add Riley in
Wright wouldn’t be included in any trade for JTR.
How about Duvall, Allard, Flowers and Jackson?
I like that much better but I’m assuming Miami wouldn’t. They are gonna demand either Wright or Riley I would think. I’d rather trade Pache than Riley.
Maybe Flowers, Duvall, Pache & Allard? Thats a haul but JTR ain’t comin’ cheap.
I like that too. Honestly, they probably wouldn’t want Duvall until/unless he shows he can hit. Maybe add Alex Jackson to that bunch. MLB catcher and OF, and prospects at OF, pitcher and catcher. That would suck for Flowers.
And people say Jeter is delusional wanting a big return for JTR…Braves fan are ridiculous.
Idle speculation. If the Braves got a negotiation window, then they could offer better prospects. For some reason, the Marlins wouldn’t allow that last year. Stupid.
i would very much hope the Phillies get their act together soon as far as Nola goes. If they end the offseason with neither Harper nor Machado, i would at least be somewhat consoled if theu get Nola locked up long-term.
If the Phillies don’t sign Harper or Machado after the whole stupid money thing it would be akin to Trump convincing his base that Mexico will pay to build a wall.
Vidal Nunio has had a decent career for a 48th round pick…..
JTR traded to the Dodgers in 3… 2… 1… 🙂
I don’t really understand the ridiculous price tag on the braves. You’re a rebuilding team! We can offer the best return of prospects who are near enough to mlb ready and are solid. Plus JT would prob be long gone by the time the marlins are competitive again. Why not do the rebuild right, like the cubs Astros and even braves have been doing, get an army of solid players in your farm and stop being the laughing stock of the league. Heck, you traded away 2 league MVP’s and got NOTHING GOOD in return! Pure jokes! No one though those trades were as good as they should have been then and even worse now. So let the braves give you 3-4 strong prospects and not ur outrageous bull
The Marlins say they want MLB position players in a trade for JT. Braves players that are available:
Take your pick.
Oops. Flaherty’s a FA. take him off the list.
I think A.Riley, Gohara,Allard, A.jackson and Tyler Flowers should really be enough for J.T. marlins get #5,7,10,26 prospects in Braves farm and flowers. The Braves could even send 2m over for flowers if necessary.
I don’t know much about the Indians but I guess all the Kluber buzz rumors were for an outfielder Right now as they still want to be competitive.
Trade Pache,Duvall, s.freeman, jacob Webb (Braves 28th prospect) for Peralta of D-backs.
Trade Peralta, Teheran, and Bryce Wilson to Indians for Kluber
If you can get him Sg Kimbrel 4yr 56. If not sign Jake diekman to help minters and venters to help get LH hitters out. Make the bullpen longer. I’m actually ok with Vizcaino closing. Just needs to stay healthy (obviously)
Ur suggestions are outrageous
You think? How so? I can see the Peralta/Kluber being out there but the trade for Realmuto I think isn’t out of this world.
The JT trade is insane! 3 top 100 prospects plus a top 25 plus flowers? Lol. That’s insane! The other offers are a tad more reasonable. JT is worth 1 too 100, 2 at best! If he gets 2 then unheard of minor leaguers fill the rest. Idc if it’s 4 prospects we offer, but think allard wentz then some lower tier top 25 and that is a heck of an offer. They can all be very close to MLB ready players if the Marlins desire
It’s not insane. You have all of these pitching prospects in your system and if you have a need and an option to upgrade your offense significantly go do it. He’s still a marlin so apparently the offers to Miami must not be worthy to them. Also you’re not trading the guys they think will be the studs of a rotation one day. You’re not trading K.wright, Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, Kyle muller, Touki… you’re trading a 3b prospect when you have Donaldson and who knows maybe you resign him. You have Camargo who can play there in the future.. third basemen are a lot easier to find then a top catcher. He can go. The Braves have seen Gohara live and in person. Trade him before everyone else in the league gets to see it too. (Wasn’t Gohara traded from Seattle for Mallex Smith)? You have eleventy billion pitching prospects you can let go off a couple to strengthen your lineup.
I actually think none of those is outrageous, though I’m not a fan of the Peralta trade. Of all of the Braves starting prospects, Gohara and Allard are probably the ones I’d be most willing to trade. Losing Riley would be painful. If the Braves could get JTR to agree to an extension as part of the deal, I think that’s a pretty good trade.
Of course, if JTR agreed to the extension, then I’d prefer to include Contreras instead of Jackson and Riley. We’d keep our 3B prospect and the Marlins would get a much better catching prospect.
Duuuude pass the cheetos over here man…
Romus said Haper to stros will happen today
If the Marlins demand Albies I would hope AA tells them to keep JTR.
Why do I get the feeling the Nats will out-bid themselves and over pay to re-sign Harper?
As a Nats fan, it would be nice to have him in the lineup, but I really don’t think he’s consistent enough to justify a mega deal; especially if it limits Rizzo’s ability to extend Rendon.
IMO, the 10yr $300 offer they made in Sept was too much.