Though the Cardinals have a deep mix of rotation candidates, Bernie Miklasz of The Athletic explores the uncertainty surrounding many of those arms in a call for the St. Louis organization to pursue free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel (subscription required). The Cards can’t know what to expect from Adam Wainwright, Miklasz writes, and the recent shoulder troubles for Carlos Martinez have raised some questions as well. Michael Wacha, too, has had his share of injuries in recent seasons and made only 15 starts in 2018. And while ballyhooed prospect Alex Reyes has a sky-high ceiling, he’s pitched just four innings across the past two seasons (27 frames, including the minors) and will obviously be limited in ’19 as a result. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas each have just one season of MLB success under their belt, and the depth options for the rotation are even less established.
Furthermore, each of Mikolas, Wacha and Wainwright are free agents next winter, creating some potential needs down the line. Miklasz does write, however, that the Cardinals are “confident” of reaching an extension with Mikolas. Both sides expressed interest in such a deal late last month.
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- Mike Moustakas met with reporters upon his arrival at Brewers camp this week to discuss his offseason and his new position: second base (video link courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). “It’s going to be fun,” said Moustakas of playing second base. “Obviously, it’s going to be new. I’ve been over there a couple of times in the shift, so it’s kind of comfortable at this point. … Me and Counsell talked about — even last year, we talked about it when I got traded over.” Moustakas had no gripes about being asked to make the switch even though last season it was Travis Shaw who slid to second base. Rather, he touted Shaw’s “phenomenal” glove at the hot corner and voiced trust in the Brewers’ data/analytics department to help position him for success at his new spot on the diamond. There are, of course, some other intricacies to handle, though Moustakas noted that the middle infield isn’t totally foreign to him, considering he was drafted as a shortstop (and logged 561 innings there in the low minors from 2007-08). “…That double play is something we’re going to have work on and get used to, and cutoffs, relays — being in the right position. I’ll get the hang of it.”
- Because the Reds have yet to add a true center field option to the roster, Scott Schebler is among the top options to break camp in that role, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The 28-year-old does have a nominal amount of experience at the position, having logged a combined 358 innings there across the past three seasons. “I’m interested to see him in center,” rookie manager David Bell said to Sheldon. “Everyone I’ve talked to that has seen him, people are confident that he can do it. I am, too, but it’ll be a good opportunity to see him out there. I’m convinced he can be really good in left and right.” Schebler will have some competition for the center field gig in the form of Yasiel Puig and top prospect Nick Senzel, though Senzel played in only 44 games last season due to a fractured finger and vertigo symptoms; he was also forced to sit out the Arizona Fall League after undergoing elbow surgery.
- Cole Hamels’ return to the Cubs all but eliminated Mike Montgomery’s chances of opening the season in the team’s rotation, but Montgomery nonetheless tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that he was “rooting” for the team to retain Hamels. Montgomery will return to a role with which he’s quite familiar — one that requires him to be ready to start, pitch in high-leverage spots late in games and also to enter in multi-inning stints as needed. “Be a guy that can start 20 games or close 20 games, because it has to be [that way],” said Montgomery. As Bastian notes, Montgomery not only started 19 games in Chicago last season, he also entered the game in eight different innings as a reliever and pitched multiple innings of relief on seven occasions. The versatile lefty is controlled through the 2021 season and will earn $2.44MM in 2019 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player.
oh please, the Cards are fine. they have enviable rotation depth.
I disagree. they are in one of the most competitive divisions in the game. there’s no such thing as “too much pitching”. they’ve missed the playoffs 3 years now. that’s a lifetime for a winning organization. if they want a shot at the world series (which they do), one more arm isn’t a bad thing.
they have about 10 potential starters that can all project as high as a #4 or better, but pretty much every single guy has question marks. their 2 most certain guys are both basically sophomores (flaherty and mikolas)
But what the Cardinals need is a pitcher not a belly itcher. Even if it is a left handed belly itcher, I think they would much prefer a pitcher.
I agree with many of these posts who argue both sides … how is that possible? The answer, I believe is more nuanced.
The Cardinals have 10, maybe 12, potential Starters … two years from now. Few have the potential to throw 200+ innings this year or next. The ones most likely to pitch 200 are the most likely to be injured.
If the Cards can pick up a #3 or #4 pitcher that can pitch 200 innings, especially if left handed, they gain in four ways. 1)they have a lefty in the rotation; 2)they “add” another arm to the bullpen; 3)the bullpen will get less work if this new Starter can usually go 6 or 7 innings, thus being more effective; and 4)they can develop someone, say Reyes, into a starter next year by utilizing him in the bullpen this year. Give experience while stretching them out.
It’s entirely possible Keuchel can improve the bullpen better than Kimbrel.
An additional League average starter that can provide 200 innings can benefit the team greatly. Worth a serious look, if the years and money line up appropriately.
“As high as #4 or better” is really bad writing. “As high as” means “the limit.” Then you negate that with “or better,” which means #4 is “as low as.”
Although a lefty would be great in the Cardinals rotation I disagree that they need another starter…Ponce, Gomber, Gant all proved they could pitch in the MLB last year…not a big sample size i admit but really when are you going to trust them? If you don’t give them a chance then you will never know. That is without even mentioning Hudson who ” Hudson made the jump directly to Double-A for his full-season debut, earning both Texas League All-Star and Pitcher of the Year honors before a late bump up to Triple-A Memphis. Returning to the level in ’18, Hudson took home Pitcher of the Year honors in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA over 111 2/3 innings in the Redbirds’ rotation. The performance earned Hudson his first big league callup in late July, and he emerged as a key late-inning reliever for the Cardinals down the stretch.”
I mean if you pitch that well I think you deserve a shot…also I know Reyes is coming off of injuries but you still have him. It sounds like Keuchel wants a lot of money, well at least Boras does, so I don’t think the Cardinals need to get desperate and sign anyone…let the rookies play.
Agreed….if they want to sign any pitcher, kick the tires on Kimbrel…would sure up the pen
My sentiments exactly. And Gant actually got plenty of action. I too, was going to mention Hudson’s PCL awards. That is four guys plus Reyes, and Helsley is knocking on the door.
Fasbal1 I totally agree.
Gomber, Gant and Ponce combine for a 1.4 WAR across 222 IP. Basically equal to one full time starter. Keuchel produced 2.6 WAR across 204.2 IP. So is one extra win worth the contract you would have to sign Keuchel too? And is that one win worth limiting these young guys on advancement? I would say no. As much as I like him. Money can be spent better elsewhere.
Agreed about Gant…I think him and Hudson can easily step in the rotation..thinking about the future…Milkolas(obviously an extension is needed but it sounds promising) Flaherty, Gant, Hudson and you still have Martinez…if not Gomber for 2020…and if not you can sign a FA pitcher..
Sorry totally forgot about Reyes…Mikolas, Reyes, Flaherty, Gant and Hudson…or Gomber…or Ponce…take your pick
Indeed! I don’t want to pay $6/170 for Keuchel, but I’d pay 3/$50 plus an option year without a problem.
socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2019/01/dallas-keuchel…
And, Bernie doesn’t kiss Mo’s butt the way that Goold and most of the stenos at the Post-Dispatch do, either.
Well Kuechel isn’t getting anywhere near 6/170M.
He’s also not going for 3/50
The arm we need is kimbrel, not keuchel
No we don’t. With Hicks and Miller, Kimbrel is not needed. Another starter is.
There’s a couple question marks behind every pitcher in our bullpen, I wouldn’t mind having at least one “sure thing” back there in case Hicks is too inconsistent or hurts his arm. Miller is old now and wasn’t good last year and hurt. Reyes and Hudson are no sure things either.
Yeah, if the Cards were going to spend the cash, Kimbrel makes more sense than Keuchel.
Every team has question marks about their pitchers…they are very volatile…sometimes you just have to let things play out…do you want a pitcher that you are paying league minimum hurt…or a pitcher you are paying 20 mil a year to be hurt…when they all project to be about the same
At the very least looking at Keuchal could make some other teams nervous to the point that they spend money that could handicap the others on the line
Case in point…the following articles on here…kershaw and Soroka having injuries…Why pay a lot of money for pitching when they are so volital…they have the depth so go with the young arms
Just because Keuchel might be the best remaining FA starting pitcher available, doesn’t mean he’s an upgrade for the Cardinals. Bernie loves calling for the Cardinals to spend money. Even when it’s unnecessary.
Then sign another SP who can help…….don’t simply “hope the young guys work out”
Sign Gio Gonzales to help take the pressure off……….Or…..
They have some incredible depth to use as trade bait. They could trade for Kluber, but they won’t. They could get Stroman, but they won’t.
They are cheap / stingy people (front office)
A trade for Kluber would put the Cards over the top and they do have the depth to trade from. Jocketty would have already made the trade. Cant wait for Mo to go
Gio Gonzalez? Be realistic. He’s a 5 on a bad team, at best.
Kluber isn’t getting traded at this point.
Jays aren’t selling low on Stroman.
It’s hilarious how fans call teams cheap because they don’t pay want a fan wants for a particular player.
These guys need innings and opportunities.
I want to see Hudson, Reyes, Helsley, Cabrera, Gant, and Gomber get innings as starters the next two years to see what we have with them. Maybe 2 turn out, but that’s enough to roll the dice with them over one year stop gaps, that we already have. Wacha, Wainwright, and Mikolas aren’t under contract in 2020. This is the year where these guys should get their chances to audition for a long term starting role.
I’m not saying that the Cards should go after Keuchel, but you don’t “roll the dice” when you trade for just one year of Goldschmidt. This is the year the Cards should do everything they can to win. Next year is uncertain and they aren’t sure if they will retain any of Goldy, Ozuna, or Wacha. That’s when you roll the dice on young guys.
My guess is that the Cards go into the season and depending on how the rotation and bullpen perform through May, they could make early season trades to shore those areas up. Cards don’t like doing deadline deals as much as early season trades in June.
Gio stinks. Keuchel isnt worth it.Cards dont need a pitcher at all. Its a roster thing. They have good pitchers they’ll have to send down cuz of lack of roster spots. Let the young guys pitch and see what happens. I bet theo wished he had all this young pitching!
As opposed to Goold and the other Post-Dispatch stenos who think Mo is godlike? I’ll take Bernie. Better yet, get the P-D to have McClellan write a baseball column.
I don’t go to the P-D. You obviously do.
The Cardinals’ depth is great. The focus on development is great. Giving chances and opportunity to the youth is great. NO one argues that. However, the arrogance of this FO/Ownership is greater than the above to ignore the opportunity to acquire a proven LH SP is infuriating.
Did you ever consider that they don’t think Keuchel is enough of an upgrade for the cost?
1. They may have evaluated Keuchel and determined he isn’t really an upgrade.
2. Maybe Keuchel’s demands are too much that the Cards wouldn’t be comfortable with him long term or for the dollar amount (if 5/$100M is the demand for example), it would be understandable why they wouldn’t want him.
3. Maybe they believe their rotation options are better than Keuchel in 2019 and beyond, even if he’d do a stop gap one year deal.
4. Maybe they don’t have the funds when forecasting future payrolls to justify Keuchel and still extend guys they want to retain.
It’s not automatically arrogance. It could be a pragmatic front office who is avoiding an albatross. He hasn’t sign anywhere else yet either after all.
Nice Assessment Steve Adams……
I’ve been a Fan of the Cardinals organization for decades, but these days….the FO is delusional at best.
The C-Mart injury is probably more serious than they are admitting. Hold onto your Hats
Adam Wainwright has been an awesome player for them, but his tank is empty
Alex Reyes is already referred to as “Oft Injured” and has what some call “fatal mechanics”
Michael Wacha can’t stay healthy
Mikolas, Flaherty and Gomber have no track record to lean on (Mikolas has the most)
The rotation is dangerously suspect…..and I feel like they are going to Waste the 1 Year of Goldschmidt that they so dearly paid for.
1. Delusional is a pretty strong word. Maybe overconfident in their young players, but the youngsters all put up really good numbers last year, so I wouldn’t call that “delusional.”
2. You have no idea how serious CMarts injury is since you’re not involved with the team so let’s just wait until we actually see how long he’s out before making a call there.
3. You also don’t know if wainwright’s tank is empty, how about watching a few spring games before we declare him done?
4. A lot of guys with fatal mechanics have had plenty of success in MLB before, so again, how about we see him throw a bit before deciding he will be injured?
5. I’d agree there’s concern with Wacha, he is however presumably healthy now and he’s usually effective when healthy.
6. Mikolas has a one year track record of ace level production and Flaherty has a one year track record of top 5 ROY performance, which is a lot better than nothing.
You’re allowed to believe what your want, but don’t use opinions as facts.
Where did he state any facts?
jlmini10…..
Facts? Really. Sorry if I somehow led you to think that I was stating anything but my opinion, based on intensely following both the Cardinals and anything to do with Baseball, for 40 years. …..LOL
1. Potato,,,,,,Potatoe. I chose delusional because of the words that Mo chooses to use whenever he makes a statement. No one believes him. He’s a crafty speaker. His actions are questionable…….just ask any serious Cardinal Fan.
2. Correct that “I don’t KNOW”…..but if you look at his recent history, and you know anything about pitching mechanics/injuries…..it’s not hard to extrapolate what happened last year and this spring already….into what I wrote. Sure, it’s speculation…..the other option is “hindsight”.
3. Same as #2. Look at his stats. Notice the trend. Understand that aging pitchers lose velocity, then become less effective. There’s a ton of stats (or facts) to support that idea.
4. Same as #2 (….see a pattern here???). Reyes hasn’t been healthy since he quit smoking weed…….LOL. I hope he’s fine, but I wouldn’t bet my paycheck on it. Chances are higher that he becomes a player known to be a bit brittle. Again…check his history. Think rationally, not “optimistically”.
5. Nothing needs to be said here
6. Both guys pitched well last season. Weaver was awesome in 2017….but a bust in 2018. Why? Who knows…..but that’s the reason why I question what’s coming. Mikolas should be fine….but who knows about Flaherty. I’m probably wrong on that, but it still supports my point “The Rotation Is Anything But Secure”
Cards should have signed Gio a month ago !
Keuchel isn’t worth the money and draft pick – the cards need a short term plug – hense Gio. Plus he’s a lefty
EXACTLY!!!!!!!
I think they need someone who’s going to give them reliable innings but I don’t think getting a 4th/5th starter like Gio is the way to go. I would’ve liked to see a trade for Greinke. Keuchel at the right price makes sense.
If we were going to pay for Greike, we would have been better off paying for Harper or Machado.
Keuchel wants a contract into his older years, not worth the money and the draft pick.
We just need to fill a two year spot while our young guys get acclimated to the MLB
Trading for Greinke would only make sense if the D-Backs would take Fowler as part of the deal.
Greinke is owed $104.5/3 yrs……
Fowler $49.5/3 yrs
If the D-Backs just paid his signing bonus money ($9 Mil.)…..it should work for the Cards. (Oh….wait…..is Mo still in charge???….)
Gio would take a rotation spot from a superior pitcher, as every one of the options for the Cardinals’ rotation provide more upside than Gio.
agreed
This guy knows what he’s talking about.
Gio makes a lot more sense. I never really understand why everyone wants teams filled with high upside unproven starters to sign a veteran to a long contract. Let the young guys prove themselves and sign veterans on 1 year deals in case they don’t.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if every team in the central is linked to both Gia and Keuchel this week.
Seeing as how Milwaukee is making an obvious push to get as left handed at the plate as possible it just makes sense the rest of the division is gonna check in on some lefties.
Hey Reds fans (or anyone that may have an idea), how many ABs would you project Jesse Winker to get this year?
I say 450-500
He should be out there almost every day
Would love to see the Power Show Up….but the kid can probably hit .295 if he gets the reps.
Winker will get about 500. Puig will get at least that as well. Kemp gets minimal chance against LHP. Senzel gets 500 as well, splitting time between infield and CF
500+ if he stays injury-free. Reds seem to be overbooked in outfield now, but it would be unusual for everyone to stay healthy. And, I suspect Reds aren’t done dealing.
Fowler for Samardzija. Who says no?
Sounds good to me
Cards fan
Yeah, $$ are pretty similar, and fair bit of risk on both sides. Would think Cards would want to see Shark in action a few times in Spring, to make sure shoulder isn’t still wonky. Was Fowler injured at all last year, or just plain bad
Chronic foot issues for Fowler.
Only reason Giants do it is because of luxury tax savings ($1.5 M). Cards save $10M, would likely have to off-set the difference. Wouldn’t do it until after Harper signed elsewhere any way
Cards should pursue a left-handed bat bat with thump in right. But not for a pitcher. Kinda hoping Harper signs with the Padres and the Red Birds could pry away one of Cordero or Reyes.
Ha! I’m kinda hoping the same so the Giants can grab one of their OFers. I’d even take Myers in the right deal (see Samardzija-type proposal above)
Giants would love to dump Smardja…
I wonder if moose signed with the brewers after he got a hint the padres were going to sign manny. I’m sure word got around through agents.
If than plan with Martinez ends up being in the bullpen, I say yes for Kuechel. But right now the Cards are fine and have the best rotation in there division.
there?
than?
This should be “easy….e1234”
There, They’re, Their………LOL
…..”their plan”………and “their division”………lol
Best rotation? Lol
Keuchel would fit in well with the Cardinals. I think he would thrive in the NL central.Go for it! Give him a 4 yr/$70mil deal.
Keep it up, Monty. Guys like you are why the Cubs are perennially making the postseason now.
No doubt. I love that at least publicly he doesn’t complain even though we know he wants to start. Team player and he needs to be retained and compensated for his unique role.
Cards don’t need Dallas. If they wanted to add a pitcher, Kimbrel makes way more sense.
They are 9 starters deep in the rotation.
Left off of here are Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon, Hudson, Helsley, and Cabrera. All who could pitch effectively enough to make most rotations. The Cards don’t need to freak out over Martinez shoulder to the point where they add another starter. The rotation is significantly better than the bullpen.
“I am, too, but…” the first comma in that sentence isn’t necessary.
LOL @Moose. He has played at second a couple times in a shift so now hes comfortable there. I think it takes much more than being at a new position for a few at bats to get comfortable, let alone at the major league level.
And you would know how?
I’ll take the word of the guy who has played at the major league level.
I actually like the idea of Moustakas trying out at second. He seems game for it. The Brewers have a pretty advanced analytics team so they obviously see enough in him and the data to try it, Plus, if he can handle the position, it gives him some surplus value; his offense for a third baseman is just a little above average, but a second baseman who can hit around 30 homers is a little rarer. I’ve also always wondered if it’s an untapped asset to have a strong-armed second baseman; most guys get put there because their arm is insufficient for the left side of the infield or they’re on the smaller side. It seems like, with his arm strength, it could change the way the team approaches situations with cutoffs and the like.
STEAMER projected FIP
Dallas Keuchel – 3.77
Projected Cards starters
1. Reyes – 3.85
2. Mikolas – 3.93
3. Martinez – 3.97
4. Wacha – 4.16
5 Wainwright – 4.19
6. John Gant – 4.22
7. Gomber – 4.53
8. Cabrera – 4.57
9. Daniel Poncedelon – 4.84
Helsley projected for a reliever – 3.84
Hudson projected for a reliever – 4.05
Fwiw, Gio is projected for a 4.44 FIP, worse than Gant, better than Gomber.
When I read STEAMERS projections I laughed out loud. The only pitcher they claim to be better in 2o19 was Gregerson. That ought to be enough to put the projection/prediction in perspective.
It just gives you a read of everybody.
It would be disengeious to say Gant had a 3.61 ERA as a starter last year, and Keuchel had a 3.74, thus Gant>Keuchel.
Then STEAMERS is borderline illiterate.
STEAMER is actually really accurate, if you look at the prediction system historically.
Good old Bernie feeding the fans lies again handed down via memos from Mozeliak.
I highly doubt the Cardinals will add anyone else at this point. Not that I agree with that, but it seems they have a lot of confidence in what they currently have.
Keuchel will be 20M plus annually. Some of suggested contracts are not realistic.
Well, the Cardinals still have all that depth in the first place, so there’s simply no room for another rotation signing. Even if they have to replace 3 or 4 of their current projected starters at some point, they already have the quality arms to do so. With 10 potential quality starting candidates, at least 5 of them have to stick!
“Me and Counsell”?? Moose, it’s “Counsell and I”.