Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal. Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear. (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.) More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.
Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…
- Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2. Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
- While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports. Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball. That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
- Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome. There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary. This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season. Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason. He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
- The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link). Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017. The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners. Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017. Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
- “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies. These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.
I’m surprised Jeter didn’t gift wrap Realmuto to the Yankees like he did Stanton.
Stanton has a full no trade. So he got to pick where he wanted to go and said he would approve a tade to the Yankees or Dodgers. So of course Miami didn’t get a good return
Thank you for saying something I get tired of hearing this all the time. They wanted to dump all his salary and could only do so with several teams. I’m surprised they got as much as they did. The return is just young, the players have talent it’s just going to take time to see. Guzman and Devers could end up being great. But either way they are not paying a cent so they think they won.
The Marlins are paying $30 million of the contract.
Sky14…..if and only if he does not opt out after 2020…….. from Cots….
“Marlins paying $30M to Yankees if Stanton does not exercise right to opt out of the contract after the 2020 season
Miami to pay $5M cash each 7/1 and 10/1 in 2026, 2027 & 2028
full $30M amount pro-rated over final 10 years of the contract ($3M/year) for purposes of calculating Competitive Balance Tax”
Yes I’m aware but if he opts out then the contract obligation the Yankees took on isn’t all that significant.
Sky14, in total, Yankees are obligated to pay Stanton $270 million. I mean I know they’re the Yankees but saying that Stanton contract “isn’t all that significant”
Is a bit of a stretch.
You didn’t read what he was responding to. @CatMando who brought up the fact that Stanton can opt out after this season. @Sky14 then mentions that if he does opt out then the Yanks commitment over the time they had him wouldn’t be as significant.
Stanton isn’t opting out. Trade isn’t going to look quite so good for the Yankees when they are paying ~$25m AAV for his decline years.
The Yankees are paying Ellsbury $22m AAV for no production as well as his medical costs.
Not saying they like it, but that financial burden didn’t stop them from taking on Stanton’s contract, nor from signing 3 high-priced free agents this year, as well as taking on Paxton’s salary.
They can handle it but if they had a choice in the matter I think they’d rather not pay for Stanton’s decline years. Let alone give up Castro and Guzman to do it.
What about Ozuna and Yelich?? They wanted to dump too????
He will be 37, stop acting like he’ll be 42.
When will people stop with that false narrative?
Stanton had a full NTC and a lot of years and salary left on his contract. They had to find a team that not only wanted him and could afford to take on his contract but also a team that he wanted to play for. That left very few options. Of course they weren’t going to get a very good return. Realmuto has a way better contract and had no control over who he was traded to. Miami didn’t have much of a choice with the Stanton trade.
“Realmuto has a way better contract”? What does that even mean?
If you are going to take exception to others’ posts, at least be clear on your points.
it means his his contract wasn’t nearly a burden to the team in comp to Stanton’s, which is certainly true.
“… a much more team-friendly contract…’ then.
People in other posts said that baseball fans are more knowledgeable, and then we get posters like teachdad46 who couldn’t figure out Rocket was saying a arbitration eligible player with no trade protection is a better contract to trade than a 13 year 325 million contract with a full NTC.
I think every other person understood that he was saying JT’s contract was far easier to move than Stanton’s. You’re the only one that seems to not understand.
He’s playing dumb. He knows Stanton wasn’t a gift to NY and wanted to keep the argument going
A “way better contract” can easily imply a “much more team-friendly contract”. You are just being difficult for the sake of it at this point
Stanton can’t be compared to Realmuto, Stanton hit 59 homers in one season and even in a bad year is better than Realmuto. Realmuto has not won a MVP either. Lets wait and see what Realmuto get offered in his next contract. and you will see their is no comparison to be made. Stanton would average a 6 WAR if he wasn’t DHing.
Why would they need to stop the false narrative? It’s easier to be an absolute buffoon and just yell things like owner is cheap or collusion to whoever will listen.
todd76…despite what you may wish to believe, Stanton himself nixed the deals to both SF and StL even after meeting with both teams personally. Of the teams that Stanton was willing to play for only the NYY engaged Miami in trade talks.
Read and learn the real history not your revisionist version.
That’s why “no trade clauses” need to go away or get limited to three teams. What Stanton did was gift wrap himself to the Yankees. All 30 teams are equal entities in the league, and should be treated as such regardless of geographical location.
ROTFL, come on now, I know there isn’t that much in the water in Chicago.
Limited to 3 teams? All teams are equal? Come on.
No trade clauses need to go away? Stop caping for billionaires. If he has a no trade clause, he gave up money to have some degree of control over his future. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
Stanton would have never signed an extension with Miami unless he received the no trade, he wasn’t stupid, he knew they’re history.
A no-trade isn’t a Player’s Association mandate. No team HAS to give a player a no-trade. Stop making excuses for the poor decisions a team makes. Stanton asked for it because he knew the Marlin’s tendency to sell off players every few years and he wanted to protect himself from going to a city he didn’t want to play in. If Stanton DIDN’T sign an extension and was a FA he would be able to choose where he wanted to play. If you suspect that you’re going to be traded 2-3 years into your 13 year contract then darn skippy you want to be able to have a say into where you spend the next decade.
I’m a Yanks fan and they were absolute idiots to give Ellsbury the money, the length of contract and a no-trade clause. But that’s on THEM not the player/agent. They could’ve said no.
Why would no trade clauses go away? Fans who don’t understand why they were negotiated need to just shut up.
People should thank Jeter for the move. Had the Yankees not traded for Stanton they’d have either Harper or Machado at this very minute.
im more affraid of Stanton than either of those two if im totally honest.
If a was a pitcher I’d be rather face Machado or Harper instead of Stanton too.
The Yankees have plenty of money to sign either or even both. The percentage of revenue the Yankees spent on payroll 15 years ago was just shy of 85%. Right now it’s about 30%. Considering revenue has roughly doubled the Yanks Are flush with cash to spend luxury tax be damned. Ownership would apparently rather just pocket the money.
Agreed, Don. Payroll has be flat for many years. The new wait-and-See story about signing home grown stars sounds like more empty promises to me. If they want to sign long term deals with Judge, Torres…start making offers now!
Plenty of money? If the Yankees do not want to be penalized for spending beyond the luxury tax then you would be 100% incorrect. They will have about a $200-mil payroll for 2019 as it stands.
I don’t think the Stanton contract is the reason they don’t. I swear people don’t understand how large corporations work. No team, or at least no well managed team, thinks year to year. They all see things in a span of 3-5 years down the road. The Yanks knew exactly who the likely FA would be after the 2018 season and they went ahead and acquired Stanton via trade, Either they chose him over Harper and Manny or Stanton’s contract isn’t seen as an impediment to adding either at the price they wish.
I also think that perhaps they expect Stanton to opt out and are willing to let him walk. I would also add that Stanton has shown he might have a higher ceiling than either Manny or Harper. I mean he did hit near 100 homers the last two years,
“I don’t think the Stanton contract is the reason they don’t”.
Yankees payroll currently hovering about $200-mil. Take the $26-mil away that Stanton will make this year and, surprise, the Yankees have space to spend.
If the Yankees are willing to blow through the cap, they may be having that discussion as we speak. Otherwise they’ve had no desire to do so. Stanton was brought in to increase the Yankees’ chances of winning a World Series after falling just short in the ALCS.
As for the other guys above talking about who’d they rather face….well, Machado is a better defender of the three and Stanton is soooo good on D the Yankees want to DH him. From an offensive perspective you are right. Still, Yankees haven’t made any indication they are willing to carry a $230+ mil payroll.
Stanton isn’t opting out. If a player has an opt out and you think for even a second “His team is hoping he opts out,” he’s not going to. Plus he’ll be 31 when his opt out rolls around. He’ll be hard pressed to beat 7/$260m as a 31 y/o free agent. Harper and Machado might not get that kind of money and they are 5 years younger.
Your post just comes across dull, and typically incorrect…congratulations
Sheesh, when you see these uninformed narratives about the Marlins, it always shows that E!SPN and FOX Sports has created a generation of trollish idiots that pretend that they know sports. Anything outside of Tom Brady, LeBron, and Boston and NY are the center of the universe, is unknown to these individuals other than what E!SPN and FOX Sports told them in their personal agenda filled “sports coverage”..
I don’t even know what you are trying to say in this post.
People who aren’t locked into Boston and NY understand what I mean.
Stanton costs almost 300 M. Idk how that’s gifting him away. He got salary relief…
I hope Nolan and the Rox get the extension done. There are certain players that seem to embody a francise and he is one of those guys. Be great to have him and Story together another 4 years (assuming Story does not get extended)
Not going to happen…..
I mean unless it does. I know the Rockies aren’t the biggest spending team but they can certainly sign Nolan if they want to. I’m sure he’d be happy with the certainty of an extension after watching the free agent market the last two years.
I’m not exactly putting money on it, but the definitiveness of “not going to happen” is idiotic
Given the year Bauer just came off, I felt the Tribe should have moved him at this peak value…. He has already stated he’s not looking for an extension and is happy just playing year to year…. something along the lines of a trade to the Padres for Renfroe, a blocked Josh Naylor and a decent arm, would’ve seemed to make sense.
Agreed. Kluber is the established ace under contract. Bauer’s the guy they should have been looking to deal. With Cleveland it’s always about the money which is not the best reason to move a guy.
The arm would have to be one of the top ones as Renfroe has been disappointing and Naylor has defensive concerns. Two years of Bauer would require more than a decent arm.
As a Rockies fan, I am obviously hoping for a Nolan extension. But as a fan doing my best to take away my bias, with the way the FA market has been the past couple of years, it would make sense to.
People have been waiting years for this FA class and the top 2 guys are still unsigned and Spring Training is not that far away. Now Harper, arguably the top FA since Pujols, is possibly going to be signing a short term deal. (Not that I think it will happen, but just the possibility of it happening seemed far-fetched not that long ago.) Teams are just not willing to dole out Pujols type FA contracts, BUT they have shown the willingness to sign their own players to sizable extensions. It might make sense for Arenado now.
Arenado extension 7/140? Then the Rox could still do a compete without too much contract weight hold down.
7 years 140? Keep dreaming. Arenado just made 26 million in arbitration for 2019. Why in the world would he make less than arbitration thinks he deserves? Also, unlike Harmer and Machado Arenado has no questions or concerns when it comes to teams signing him. With Harper teams see his one great year surrounded by mostly good but not great seasons. He is inconsistent and that probably scares teams into signing him for a ransom. With Machado you have a guy with an attitude, that doesn’t hustle and plays dirty at times. Arenado is a stud and has been consistently good every year. He is an awesome defensive third basemen which is a premium defensive position. Hasn’t had any incidents to call his character into question. Teams will line up for Arenado next off season barring either a disastrous season stat wise, or injury wise. Heck even the tight wallet cards are in love with Arenado and will probably make an offer for him. They like but are not in love with Harper enough to actually make him an offer, but it’s well known they are very high on Arenado. As are the Yankees and most every other baseball team. So, if you think Arenado is going to sign a 7 year 140 million dollar contract then keep dreaming. That’s only 20 million a year. Heck heyward makes that much and he can’t hit a beach ball lol
Arenado does come with a big question mark: home/road splits away from Coors. While I personally think this narrative is BS, it’s still a reason for some teams to shy away.
Players who leave Colorado have out-performed their road numbers that they posted as a member of the Rox. It has to be tough, seeing nastier stuff on the road than people are capable of throwing at your home park.
.263 and an OPS 200 points lower on the road is not BS.
I think this narrative around Machado is getting tired; he made one off-hand comment in an interview about not running out every ground ball, and somehow this equates to him “not hustling” or being a bad teammate or having an attitude or whatever. There’s no real evidence teammates don’t like playing with him and his on-field numbers that we can actually measure (taking extra bases, infield hits, etc) belie the notion that he plays lazy. He stole 14 bases in 16 tries last season, that isn’t indicative of a guy who is just “taking it easy”. Harper had a strange defensive season but the bat is elite – he was the 18th-best hitter in baseball last season by OPS+ or wRC+ or any other metric you want to use besides his fluky low BABIP.. He has never been a bad defensive player before, and some speculate that he was not playing “all-out” in 2018 because of a fear of injury, plus he was forced into centerfield way too much in 2018; I wouldn’t look at one year of bad defense as evidence of anything except a bad defensive season.
Again- what about being the 18th best hitter entitles Harper to the largest contract in MLB history that he is seeking.
Nolan’s questions/concerns are his road stats. They paint a picture of a good-not-great player.
The low BABIP is a concern for Harper because he kept hitting into the shift. They aren’t going to stop shifting on him unless the shift is banned or he learns to beat it.
9th inning WS game 4, Machado hits to BoSox 3B Devers, who has hard time fielding it. Running down the line, Machado blows huge bubble gum bubble and is thrown out on close play.
6th inning WS game 3, Machado hits ball to wall. Pimps the hit. Jogs to first instead of run for easy double.
In the World frickin Series. Not isolated magazine quote. “Believe someone when they show you who they are.”
try 7/ 230
Baur had a break thru season however his career whip doesnt constitute him making 13 mill. 1 more break out season may justify his case.
His WHIP? lol
Let big A go then sign him to a short deal when the market freezes until March 2020.
The owners have spoken!
By not speaking!
Yes, please let him go lol then you will never see him in a Rockies jersey again! You realize that Harper is inconsistent and only decent at defense right? He just hit what .249? You wonder why teams don’t want to give him 10/300+? If he was consistent like Arenado is he would have been signed a while ago. Teams are more willing to give him a shorter contract so they are not saddled with a long contract for a guy that has only had one great season in his hyped career. As for Machado he screwed himself out of money by having an attire, saying that he isn’t a hustle kind of guy, and playing dirty. Arenado does not have any of their negatives, and the market will be more favorable for him because of that. Plus Harper does not play a premium defensive position. With Nolan teams get a consistently great hitter that plays a premium position and plays it at a gold glove level. So, please do let him hit free agency so another team that actually wins titles and playoff series can sign him.
Sure, Harper hit just .249 last year, but he also hit 34 home runs and had 100 runs batted in, which ranked 7th and 8th in the National League respectively.
So does 7th and 8th merit the largest contract in MLB history that he thinks he deserves?
Harper has been a very good but not great player, injury prone and inconsistent from year to year.
He needs to stop deceiving himself.
You can’t just ignore Arenado’s Home/Road splits and call him consistent. He has been consistently great at home and consistently better then average but not great offensively on the road. Any team that signs him has to be aware of those facts. His defense is great everywhere but there is a question in any decent GM’s mind of is this guy really worth 30 million a year his road splits say no he isn’t.
Mark P: Why does MLBTR keep pushing these big money contract dreams when the owners have spoken by not speaking?
Welcome to the new normal…..
Access to the players is controlled by the agents. The agents and the owners both exploit the fan. If that’s a problem and it is for the majority of Main Street and the poor, go to HS, College, and MiLB games which are much more affordable and are great experiences.
Indians should sign Josh Harrison. He plays a pretty solid LF, or he could play 3B/2b with Jose Ramirez/Jason Kipnis going to the outfield.
— “There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures” —
Worth the extra $2M if Bauer swears off drones.
Yankees to sign top rated international free agent, again.
I thought the whole point of the new system was to prevent them from doing these things?
Seems like the whole goal was to keep salaries down and not to stop the evil empire at all, congrats to all the idiots that fell for it and just cost poor kids more money while billionaires get richer, lol.
You know just a couple of years ago they were capped at 300k bonuses right? Meaning they weren’t allowed to sign top international talent. Then after a couple of years they were allowed to give high bonuses again. Same rules apply to every team…
Great comment again boogaloo.its like the 29 other baseball teams didn’t start off with a 5 million dollar pool just like NY?
I believe Bauer has one MORE year of team control than does Kluber, not v.v.. Given their age difference it still gives Bauer some additional heft on his side of any bargaining.
No. Bauer is controlled 2019 and 2020 via arbitration. Kluber can be controlled through 2021 via very affordable club options.
The other international free agents will be looking for that Victor Victor Mesa Mesa Sr Jr money money.
Underrated comment lol
If Arenado wanted to make the HOF some day, he’d NEVER EVER EVER leave Coors field. He should petition for at 162 games to be played there.
Larry Walker just read your comment and asked why he didn’t get the call this year.
Funny, could have sworn Larry played in Montreal to begin his career. Whereas Arenado started his career in Colorado. At least Todd Helton would have been a better reference. Although Helton’s first full year happened when he was turning 25. Arenado’s first year was 22.
Thanks for playing #GoutsEyes.
Iverbure’s comment is in regards to time in COL hurting his HoF credentials – it’s a well spoken about point. Nothing to do with where he was beforehand.
I’m not going to thank you for playing – you contributed nothing.
Cam….Walker gets in with 3000 hits or 500 homeruns, Colorado or not. Arenado gets one of them he’ll be in the Hall of Fame. Again, Colorado or not.
I guess Cam is your burner account, Iver? Nice work. So much for contributions. No fun that you don’t know how to play. Or can’t. I’ll choose the latter.
As a Marlins fan, I’m loving the direction we’re taking. We are in full rebuild. We have prospects in place. We are seeking more on the international market. We have an ownership that seems to have a plan that even Mike Hill isn’t allowed to do much in. And somehow it seems that having owners with big egos like Jeter and Michael Jordan (along with their championship histories) is a good thing, even though as a Marlins and Heat fan I couldn’t stand these two as players. However, if they bring that championship pride to the Marlins that they had as players, I’ll certainly love them as owners.
As for the Marlins and history, I do know one thing. Every one of MLB’s expansion franchises and the long standing franchises with 3 or less championships need to step up because, if the Marlins get championship number 3 before any of them, when the Marlins are being bashed by the national media as a franchise, what would it say about all of the other expansion franchises if the Marlins lead the way in championships by an expansion franchise (currently tied with the Mets, Royals, and Blue Jays with 2, while existing far less years) and have tied or surpassed many long standing franchises in championships? Seems that a team that does that is not as bad as the other franchises, or that the narrative is fictional or agenda based or both.
With this all said…Go Marlins! Let’s get to number 3!
Wahoo What a Finish!
The Indians not pursuing outfield help is the definition of insanity. I’ve never seen a team with so much talent in the infield and starting rotation take such a white flag approach in the off season.
The international signings should be done just like the draft with Worse First.
Umm it is. The worst your record the more money you have to spend. Forcing players to sign with teams they don’t want to doesn’t sound very player friendly.
So we endured the 2019 free agent hype hysteria for a couple years and it came and went with a whimper. With Harper and Machado’s hype falling flat, the pundits have turned to the next class.
Depends what pundits you’re talking about. Most people who understand why Free Agency has turned glacial, are concerned with talking about exactly that. The others, move on to the next headline hot take.
Enlighten us with your take on why free agency has been “glacial”. I, for one, am on the edge of my seat.
Teams have decided en masse they’d rather be ‘good enough’ and maximize profits instead of spending the money to be great even if they can afford to do so.
The Rockies have several top infield prospects, but I want to see the Rox ownership dig deep for Arenado. He wants to play in Colorado and has done a great job there the last few years. I am wondering about the veteran Parra. He is a free agent and a good hitter who can play all outfield positions (not too good in CF). He could help the Rockies again or some other team as a reserve or starter.
During the next CBA negotiation, the MLBPA should demand an end to non-arb eligible team control (beyond the first season you appear in – league min for that), keeping 3 years of arbitration control, and the ability to compare your achievements to anyone, not just your classmates. If your most valuable years are your youngest, that’s when you should be able to make salary commensurate with your ability. If teams are no longer going to pay for “past performance”, then they have to pay for current performance, and not at discount rates. They will now have the ability to save money at the back end of players’ careers – which they are doing already – instead of the beginning. They just can’t save by rule at the beginning, and by inclination at the end.
Why do you believe owners “have to pay for current performance?” When was the last time you saw a player give money back when they failed to perform commensurate with their contract. Damn Bernie Sanders youth.
I’ll have you know ballplayers have given back plenty at the local peeler bar, thus showing strong support for feminism.
Just a thought. What if the Yankees traded Stanton to Dodgers (they were his first choice since that is his hometown) for Bellinger. Yankees then sign Harper. One big contact for another and a first baseman who can also play outfield. Takes care of too many right handed hitters in lineup and who is playing first base. This is an awesome lineup.
Hicks SH cf
Judge R rf
Harper L lf
Sanchez R c
Bellinger L 1b
Andujar R 3b
Gregorius L ss (when he returns)
Voit R dh
Torres R 2B
Think this is a possibility?. Stanton gets to go home and Harper goes to the team he wants.