Throughout the Rockies’ franchise history, the team hasn’t been shy about extending key members of the roster. Colorado’s biggest extension yet could be in the offing, as the Rockies continue to talk with All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado about a long-term deal that would keep Arenado away from free agency next winter.
If such a contract is worked out, it would easily be the most expensive deal in Rockies’ history, not to mention one of the pricier deals in Major League history. It would also be the second major extension completed by Jeff Bridich in his time as Colorado’s general manager, coming on the heels of the club’s five-year extension with Charlie Blackmon last spring. That deal is worth revisiting now, given what we’ve seen about the free agent outfield market (or, really, just the free agent market in general) after a second consecutive slow offseason of signing activity.
Blackmon was 31 at the time of the extension (he turned 32 last July 1), and, like Arenado is now, also a year away from reaching free agency. Blackmon had posted solid numbers as a part-time player and then as a regular with Colorado in 2013-15, though he stood a big step forward to hit .327/.390/.578 with 66 homers over 1366 plate appearances in 2016-17. That performance saw Blackmon earn a Silver Slugger Award in both seasons, as well as a fifth-place finish in NL MVP voting in 2017.
With the Rockies coming off a postseason appearance in 2017, the team moved to lock up a top performer, agreeing to an extension that guarantees Blackmon at least $94MM from 2019-23. Blackmon earns $21MM in each of the next three seasons, and then has a player option for another $21MM season in 2022. He then has another player option year for 2023 worth $10MM in guaranteed money, though another $8MM is available via escalators based plate-appearance thresholds that seem rather readily achievable, or on MVP finishes. (The deal also technically adjusted Blackmon’s previously agreed-upon $14MM arbitration salary for 2018, turning $2MM of that figure into a signing bonus.) All told, the extension could max out at $102MM in new money for Blackmon once all is said and done.
Even sticking to the guaranteed $94MM figure, however, Blackmon’s contract already looks like an outlier in the wake of how baseball’s free agent marketplace has evolved over the last two winters. Manny Machado and Patrick Corbin are the only 2018-19 free agents who earned more than $94MM in guaranteed money this winter. Bryce Harper will be the third name on this list once he eventually signs, and it’s doubtful that Dallas Keuchel will meet even MLBTR’s four-year/$82MM projected contract, let alone a $94MM deal.
Blackmon’s production also took a bit of a step back in 2018, as he hit .291/.358/.502 with 29 homers over 696 plate appearances. Still strong numbers, to be sure, though more in the vein of a solidly above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 115 OPS+) than his more elite production (137 wRC+, 136 OPS+) in 2016-17. On the defensive side, Blackmon had been a below-average but playable center fielder throughout his career, though his glovework fell off (-28 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.6 UZR.150) to such an extent in 2018 that the Rockies will now deploy him as a right fielder this season.
Had Blackmon been a free agent this winter, his most natural comp was another center fielder, A.J. Pollock. The newly-signed member of the Dodgers outfield lacks Blackmon’s durability and longer track record of production, but Pollock is also 17 months younger, a more stable defender, and more of a sure thing to produce in a new ballpark (Blackmon has a career .970 OPS at Coors Field, and only a .745 OPS on the road). Pollock landed a five-year deal from the Dodgers worth $60MM in guaranteed money, so even if some teams felt that Blackmon was the better free agent bet, the gap between the two players surely wouldn’t have been $34MM.
With all this in mind, it’s fair to say that Blackmon and his representatives at ACES did a good job in landing that extension last spring. As a soon-to-be 33-year-old headed for corner outfield duty, as hard to imagine Blackmon would’ve found five years and $94MM in free agency if he had tested the market this winter.
A win for Blackmon, however, doesn’t at all mean that the deal was a “loss” for the Rockies. As noted, Blackmon was still a very productive hitter in 2019 — drastic home/road splits aren’t as big an issue when you’re the team that plays at Coors Field, naturally. Blackmon also wouldn’t be the first player to improve at the plate after shifting to a less-demanding defensive position, so getting out of center field could help Blackmon’s bat as well as simply drastically elevating his defensive value.
Could Colorado have re-signed Blackmon to a lesser deal as a free agent had they not extended him a year early? Potentially, though such a “what-if” scenario is easy to create with 20/20 hindsight (plus, you never know if another team might’ve been particularly keen on signing Blackmon). As it worked out, the Rockies were able to retain a player they liked both on the field and in the clubhouse, even if it may have been a bit of an overpay.
Let’s also not overlook the big-picture ripple effect of the Blackmon extension as it relates to Arenado. The third baseman now has solid proof that a Bridich-led front office is willing to pay to keep a homegrown star in the fold, and retain members of what has been a winning core group that has reached consecutive postseasons. Money-wise, Blackmon’s long-term contract presents no real obstacle to the Rockies being able to afford Arenado, given that negotiations are already taking place and the organization is cognizant of the $200MM+ it will surely take to keep Arenado in the fold. From a return-on-investment standpoint, Blackmon’s contract also looks like much less of a problem for the Rockies’ payroll than the lack of production they’ve received from recent free agent signings like Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, or Bryan Shaw.
It will also be interesting to see how Blackmon’s extension stands in the wider scope of future extensions for star players a season away from free agency. We’ve already seen some notable extensions this spring, though those deals went to players (Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Jorge Polanco, etc.) who were still arbitration-controlled for several seasons, rather than pending members of the 2019-20 free agent class. For some of those scheduled free agents who are already in their 30’s, the thought of an extended stint in free agency and/or a lesser contract than expected have surely crossed these players’ minds in the wake of the last two offseasons.
Blackmon’s contract may represent a best-case scenario for such players if they do pursue extensions, as Blackmon and his camp were able to score at what may be the peak of the outfielder’s value and earning potential. Of course, it takes two to tango, and it remains to be seen if teams besides the Rockies are willing to pay a premium in an extension for a player who isn’t either a true elite veteran (like a Nolan Arenado) or a younger, arbitration-controlled star who could prove to be a bargain if locked up early. As a team wanting to both win now and to send an early signal to Arenado that they wanted to win the future, however, the Rockies felt Blackmon’s extension was clearly worth the plunge.
I thought Blackmon’s deal looked great the day he inked it. Considering his age and the way we’ve seen the market move even prior to this offseason it looked great for him. Had he been 28 when he signed it might be a different story but him moving off CF was inevitable and at that price it didn’t look very smart for Col from the get go. Particularly with limited dollars available and Arenado a pending FA.
The concept of “limited dollars” is a bit misleading. Basically, before a ticket, concessions, or merchandise is sold, every team in the league is bringing in roughly $100mil in revenue. This does not include any of the aforementioned, or any income from MLB Advanced Media (which doesn’t count as revenue for some reason). Not to mention any corporate partnerships, stadium naming contracts, etc. While every team certainly cannot spend like Boston and LA and the Yankees of past, none of them are hurting for money.
Limited dollars is a very relative term. They have salary commitments that push them near their “comfort zone” already on the books and have Arenado’s big payday looming on the horizon. I don’t think it was an unfair statement at all.
Blackmon being on the books isnt the problem. Its the horrible Desmond deal and the relief pitchers they tried to sign that are the problem.
I don’t think Blackmon is going to be a serious problem but it doesn’t mean they gave him what is now and probably was then an over market deal. Desmond/Shaw/McGee aren’t just over market.
I’m glad he signed the deal because I like it when teams keep their stars. I wish long term contracts starting opting for this escalators in the last years of the contract. I wish they start doing more of that, say the last three years with a $10-$15 mil base plus incentives of a 10 year deal. It would help keep franchise players in town and teams are protected in case of declining performance at the end of the deal.
Isn’t it more accurate to say Pollock’s reps failed more than Blackmon’s succeeded?
Not by a longshot.
Pollack’s reps pulled off a miracle getting him that contract.
Agreed, CB. Pollock had one amazing season and then three injury-shortened, meh ones in a row. He obviously has a ton of potential if he stays healthy, but yeah, his reps really did work some magic
I strongly disagree with the Pollock comp. Blackmon doesn’t have his injury history and he has been several notches better offensively. I think that AJ getting 60 million with all of his warts is actually an argument in favor of Charlie getting 94 million as opposed to it being an argument saying that Charlie would have gotten less.
FWIW I have never been a big Blackmon fan and wouldn’t want him on my team with that extension. I don’t believe in his continued production.
Pollock is a significantly better defender. Also a year younger. Blackmon has had Coors behind him also. I think it’s a fair comp even though Blackmon has a significantly better injury history.
Pollock’s career away numbers aren’t much better than Blackmon’s.
AVG, HR, OPS
Blackmon .262 65 .745
Pollock .266, 33 .758
You only listed more differences between them. The only thing they have in common is they both played CF. You can’t understate the impact that a large injury history has on a player’s free agent value. I was shocked that AJ got as much as he did, having basically one full season in 6 tries and a horrible OBP. I’d take Blackmon’s contract over AJ, at least he plays
Blackmon got nearly 100MM guaranteed while Pollock got 55. Maybe you’re right and they weren’t great comps. But Blackmon got a lot more. And two options to boot so if he was fantastic for the rox they lose some of that upside. Blackmon’s deals is miles better than Pollock’s.
You could almost sign two AJ pollock’s for blackmon’s Price. In all likelihood Blackmon will take This deal for 5/99 at minimum. Charlie for 5/99 or AJP for 4/55? I’d take AJ for that difference.
Blackmon was smart because all teams know about his major home road splits. Plus he was over 30 when he signed I think
Blackmon plays hard and is a great guy to have around. People would have been angry if he left and I also think he’s performed well so far.
I thought the Blackmon deal was a mistake when they signed it. His splits were crazy and his age would catch up with him. This contract will be problematic for Colorado especially if they attempt to extend Arenado.
Why would the splits matter to a team that is RE-SIGNING him? Splits only theoretically matter if you are changing teams. He will be playing in the exact same stadiums this season with the Rockies.
Good for both sides.
For Colorado they keep a productive player.
For Blackmon he can maintain solid production in Colorado.
Quote “Pollock is also 17 months younger, a more stable defender, and more of a sure thing to produce in a new ballpark (Blackmon has a career .970 OPS at Coors Field, and only a .745 OPS on the road)”.
Typical Coors Field bashing. The author completely ignored Pollock’s benefit of playing his home games at hitter friendly Chase Field. Pollock is a great player, but also has had many injury problems in his career unlike Blackmon who hasn’t missed many games in his career from injuries.
Career Away numbers
AVG, HR, OPS
Blackmon .262 65 .745
Pollock .266, 33 .758
I agree with you on the park factor but their deals really aren’t similar. Black received at least 95 MM Guaranteed to pollock’s 55. That’s a big time premium for Blackmon who is already not a CF. And Blackmon’s deal has two player options which further limited the upside for Colorado in the deal. if Blackmon was/is an all world player he can up and leave after year 3. Highly unlikely scenario at this point but it’s a factor when comping the deals.
Players and agents need to start recognizing there’s added value to a team to sign players to extensions. Fans and players like to identify players with their teams. They’ll rarely make more in the open market unless they are marketable as a franchise player
I don’t think that blanket statement works in this scenario. Extensions can be a good/bad thing for both the player and the team just as much as entering free agency can lead to more or less money for the player. Braves offered Heyward money similar to what Freeman extended for, but Jason declined and ended up making more on the open market. Kimbrel’s extension with Atlanta pushed his free agency back two years and likely cost him tens of millions of dollars by not entering the market around the time of Chapman and Jensen were getting 80+. Ian Desman was offered 100+MM from the Nationals and declined. And of course, Moose declining 17.5 M on a one year deal to get less total money over the next two years. It’s really about being honest with what you want and getting good advice from your agent on where the market is.
I thought the Dodgers were crazy to give that contract to Pollock. They have at least three other guys who can play center field so it wasn’t a position of great need for them. They needed to get an elite middle of the order bat to stack up to the AL powerhouse teams.
The problem with that is Freidman is their PBO/GM. He has never given out a contract a premium middle of the order bat would command. He isn’t that type of executive. Anyone that actually thought the Dodgers had a chance at Machado or Harper don’t know Freidman’s m.o. very well. Pollock is exactly the type of player he would sign.
Rockies are desperately trying to lock up Nolan because they know if he reaches free agency no way they can compete with other teams if they have to pay market value. They will try and keep him on a “team friendly“ deal.
The best part of this signing was just the notion that the Rockies weren’t going to chuck (see what I did there) it all for 3-4 years and have a tear down rebuild. If you like that sort of thing, more power to you, I’m sure you can find a different team to root for. But I don’t. and I would much rather the Rockies be “naturally bad” while trying like the beginning of this decade versus trading everyone you’ve ever heard of and fielding a AA/AAA team for the next couple of years.
Just knowing I am going to get to hear The Outfield song “Your Love” at the bottom of the first in every home game is worth it to me.