The Astros haven’t been engaged on Dallas Keuchel in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest look at the free-agent left-hander’s apparently stagnant market (subscription required). The Phillies, he adds, still have interest only in a “very” short-term deal, as was reported last week. Meanwhile, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that unless Keuchel or free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is suddenly willing to take a one-year deal, the Twins aren’t likely to sign either pitcher three weeks into Spring Training. As for the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote late last week that spring ailments for Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman haven’t been deemed concerning enough for Atlanta to pursue Keuchel.
It’s hardly an encouraging set of updates for either free agent, particularly Keuchel, whom Olney suggests is being harmed to an extent by the fact that he doesn’t fit today’s mold of hard throwers that permeate the game. Olney notes that Keuchel’s average fastball (89.3 mph) ranked 55th of 57 starters who qualified for the ERA title in 2018.
While perhaps some teams would prefer harder-throwing options, that stat doesn’t seem especially concerning when presented with further context. Keuchel’s average fastball last season was actually improved over a pair of seasons in which he was slowed by back and neck injuries in 2016-17. In fact, in Keuchel’s Cy Young-winning 2015 season, he averaged just 89.6 mph on his heater, so it’d be puzzling to see significant level of concern over that fastball velocity. Furthermore, a look at the names around Keuchel near the bottom of the fastball velocity leaderboard includes quality arms such as Marco Gonzales, Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, ranked only 43rd among those 57 qualified starters at 90.8 mph, and he secured a six-year contract that promises him $140MM. That deal came at a younger age and on the heels of a better season, clearly, but the contract still runs counter to the idea that teams will only pay for premium velocity.
None of that is to say that Keuchel isn’t without red flags, of course. The lefty’s strikeout percentage dipped from 21.4 percent in 2017 to 17.5 percent in 2018 (7.7 K/9 vs. 6.7), and his swinging-strike rate fell from 10.9 percent to 8.3 percent. His ground-ball rate of 53.7 percent, while well north of the league average, also represented a substantial step back from 2017’s 66.8 percent mark and from his overall career mark of 58.8 percent. All of that surely sets off some alarms for interested teams, but Keuchel was nevertheless a quality starter in 2018, as has been the case for several years. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference suggest he’s been worth 18 wins above replacement over the past five seasons — including a combined six or more WAR over his past two campaigns.
It’s not a stretch to suggest that virtually any team in baseball would be improved by swapping out Keuchel for its current weakest starter, but as is always the case in free agency, the financial element plays a significant role. It seems quite likely that some clubs that had interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel early this winter balked at the duo’s reported nine-figure asking prices and went on to spend their money elsewhere. Now, even if those asking prices have come down, some previously interested teams may simply not have ownership permission to spend significant dollars on another free agent. Both pitchers also rejected qualifying offers, meaning a team signing either former All-Star would be subject to the forfeiture of at least one draft pick (and potentially some international bonus pool space).
It’ll be worth keeping an eye on injuries to prominent pitchers throughout the league in the coming days to see if a new window opens. Clayton Kershaw has been battling a shoulder issue, for instance. The Braves, as previously mentioned, have multiple starters who have been dealing with injuries thus far in camp. The Cardinals may be without Carlos Martinez to open the season. Further injuries will surely arise elsewhere, although the longer Keuchel and Kimbrel wait, the more questionable it is whether either will be ready to pitch in a big league game come Opening Day.
i hope for Keuchel’s sake he signes for more than a year. a lot of the pitchers who signed late had trouble getting going last year.
dimitrios in la
Well, that’s on him now. He waited out the market way too long—in a way that could be detrimental to his next team.
Is it? Did he have verified offers?
Part of the reason for the player’s association being up in arms is that the bulk of veterans are having no contact with teams prior to spring training other than agents calling around.
Jake Arrieta said last offseason the deal he signed with Phillie was the only offer he got, and that wasn’t until spring training.
Price tag was too high and Keuchel didn’t lower his price. Same with Kimbrel. So yes, I say it is on them.
“didn’t lower his price”
It’s hard to negotiate when no one is negotiating. Just like Arrieta last offseason. No offers until halfway through spring training. Owners are trying to destroy leverage. That isn’t negotiating in good faith. It’s basically “play for pennies on the dollar or don’t play at all”.
I hope the unions starts supporting these guys financially that haven’t signed. Let them sit into the season getting paid. Once teams realize it’s not on their terms, the purse strings will open again.
Literally if this doesn’t get fixed we will have a strike and a year without baseball. Players know that owners are not offering players their fair share of profits. Net baseball profits last year were over $10 billion. Not revenue….PROFIT. They aren’t spending anywhere close to that on players.
This isn’t on Dallas Kuechel. It’s on the owners, and it’s only on the owners.
that shouldnt be the factor dictating that. if an owner offers less then the player wants, they may turn them down at first, but they will have the inside track if they take the initiative to give an offer to begin with.
Playing baseball is a privilege not a God given right. I get owners shouldnt be making a killing but they worked in their life in order to buy a team they have the right to who they want playing for them. i also believe that if someone has the money to start up another team should have that right too.
It’s not a privilege, it’s a business.
Well I’m fairness, no offical offers were given, but im sure old Scotty boras revealed the level of contract they wanted, and that pushed teams away. Asking and accepting then absolute most money for your player doesn’t work everytime for every player
Per Forbes article on January 7, 2019, MLB revenue was $10.3 billion for 2018. That’s revenue, not profit. Think about it. If that were profit, each team would have about $350 million of profit. Profits are nowhere near that
boreus’pay this or else has worn thin over the yrs. Bad choice for KKL. Should sign with the Stros for 2/37 or so.
History is repeating itself as far as Pitchers Keuchel
Unless you’re his agent how do you know he’s had no offers
some people read something and come to a conclusion that it is what they want it to be.
dimitrios in la
I’m sure you’d like to think it’s “on the owners” but it’s not. If it’s on anything it’s on the market. That’s what’s speaking, and what the players will need to determine is their response (collective as it will be).
The only thing Tony Clark will negotiate in the upcoming C.B.A. is ice cream cones for the winning team after the game. It isn’t the owners fault the players select a genius like Tony Clark to represent and “fight” for them. A strike wouldn’t necessarily be entirely horrible for baseball especially a short one. Maybe then we would see the fight for the minor league correction, pertaining to the shortening of the pre arb years, we have needed for awhile. Unfortunately, history tells me the winning teams are getting ice cream cones.
It’s hard to introduce socialists rhetoric in this debate. That mentality can stay with the other professional sports that it has ruined.
30 and over as a player and expecting a long term deal or even a short term deal with higher AAV? Nah, I’ll take my six year of control 100 mph throwing stud and pay him league minimum before I pony up for the 30 and over guy ready for his next TJ surgery. Maybe as a player you try and not scare off suitors, in your FA walk year, with a real shady WS performance, and then you and your agent don’t yap out of the gate about a 100 mil + multi year starting point?
When will the reality set in and remind us all that MLB has been a business for as long as anyone of us alive can remember? Telling a business owner how to spend their money, regardless of how much they bring in, is no different in me telling you how to spend yours. If you don’t like the business model stealing money from the owners, so they can share it equally, isn’t going to fix anything.
Astros might be his best bet but they don’t have to offer him higher than the QO that he should have taken. They can sign him for two years 28 or 3 & 43 million and he would jump!
In other words, unless a player gets what he, wants it is the owners fault? Enough players have been signed which shows that they do negotiate with players. You are 100% wrong.
Keuchel turned down a $90M extension from the Astros in 16. He would still be getting paid this year and next. It’s a gamble you take. He had a rough year last year… by his standards and shouldn’t expect to get paid on his 2017 performance.
@sportingdissent: To my knowledge NONE of the major league teams published net profits for the world to see EXCEPT the braves (since they are publicly traded). Quit spouting false information like it is fact.
That’s actually pretty funny. The MLBPA has no interest in negotiating for anything positive for the MiLB kids. Why would they pay anything to guys who want to sit out part of the season? Haven’t you figured out unions are strong on voice of solidarity and weak on throwing out dollars to support to where it actually should go (supporting the workers).
that will never happen. Better chance of an extra chef in each clubhouse.
When your agent starts the convo with 6 years and $25-$30 million you aren’t getting any offers… sorry but he’s not worth that kind of money. So yes it’s on him. Constantly blaming the owner, who OWNS the team and pays the bills is sad. They bare all the risk in the contracts in baseball.
When his agent start spouting off that he is looking for 6-7 years at $25-$30M/year, the argument on the owners & profits falls on deaf ears. That was an absurd ask and is a tactic the same agent used last year with similar results. When Corbin signs fairly quickly out of the gates, and Dallas is left on the sidelines, it’s time to start putting some blame on the agent.
So, was it the owner who rejected the qualifying offer or was it the player? Obviously the player(s) mistakenly (greedily) misjudged their markets. Teams are valuing (rightfully so, imo) their draft picks higher than they have in previous years.
Poor Dallas only made over 13 million last year, he will needs lots of help from the union!
Many agents (not all) are/were attorneys ot have some legal background.
The first, VERY first thing they teach anyone in negotiations is what’s called the “bargaining zone”. If someone’s “ask” is too outlandish, it’s not worth bothering trying to negotiate. As the “buyer” you ate wasting your time and effort.
It’s like shopping for a car. If you see a 300k mile honda, and the owner is asking 3 times the book value, with a line in the ad saying something like “I know what I got so don’t lowballed me” do you bother calling? Of course not.
GMs don’t want to waste their time when they could be pursuing other realistic options. Now if a new ad/offer is thrown out where it seems like there’s more of a shot for a deal, then you circle back and reengage.
But if you bought another car before that new ad comes up, you don’t call the guy back – your money is spent.
Keuchel and his advisors over valued his actual worth. He is very hittable but wants elite level pay. Astros offered him an extension a year ago in the 15M dollar range for at least 5 years, he passed because he thought he was worth more.
At this stage of his career, Keuchel is a # 3 or # 4 starting pitcher. He should take a one or two-year deal if it’s out there, and if he performs well enough, there might be another opportunity to be a FA in 2021. But Boros always oversells his clients. Ownership has wised up to that tactic because, a tactic perceived is not really a tactic any longer.
I don’t know where you are getting your numbers from but according to Forbes baseball had $10.3 billion in REVENUE last year not profit. https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2019/01/07/mlb-sees-record-revenues-of-10-3-billion-for-2018/amp/
They spent a little over $4.5 billion on players salaries. That is about 44% of revenue. In the business world most companies try to keep payroll under 30%. I don’t understand the argument for giving players more. They are taking none of the risk and are already getting almost half the reward. If anything more money needs to be given to minor league teams and players. Those poor guys are the ones getting screwed over.
Keuchel was given a qualifying offer (1 year) from the Astros at $17.9 Million which he refused. They also came back with other offers as of recently of which he refused.. It looks like other teams are talking but as for offers coming from other teams…dunno…BUT he has gotten offers. I don’t think the money is as much of the issue as the length of the contract. He is going to have a hard time getting a long term (at 34) deal unless a contending team is having a slew of injuries.
What you’re saying, if I understand correctly, is that the players should feel pressured to sign poop deals early so that they’re ready for April?
It’s just proof again that the owners have gained the upper hand even moreso. Now we are expecting players to forfeit their leverage so that they’re not falling behind early in the season. Also missing from your post are the offers he turned down already.
No. In many cases it’s overpaying your hand. Sometimes the denand is so high that yes teams move on without making an offer or even kicking the tires. Hopefully, the sides will remember the fans almost walked away in 94 and the PED area resulted. Work together before they kill the golden goose.
He and Boras SERIOUSLY overplayed their hand. He started out wanting 25 per. That is ACE type money and Keuchel is a 3 at best at this point in his career. He should have taken Houston’s extension offer back in 2017 and he should have accepted the QO this year. He’s screwed now and has no one to blame but himself….and Boras.
dimitrios in la
Keuchel didn’t get any offers because it was understood that the new definition of reasonable wasn’t going to get it done. Owners are tired of overpaying for past performance.
So glad that some brought up Jake Arietta, whose deal wasn’t ideal for the players side. Keuchel knew this yet didn’t himself approach clubs (at least not that I know of) and instead followed Manny and Bryce and, well, will pay the price. No problems there.
Kimbrel said after the season he is seeking a record breaking deal in terms or years and dollar’s for a closer. so if you are a mid tier team looking to add a closer are yoh gonna send a offer to Kimbrel? i think not and that is why both those clowns are sitting at home. Your performance and red flags play into contract offers. And if I am team owner no way am I gonna guve that kinda offer to a player like either of them for past performance. I dont care what they did 2 or 3 years ago. I care about what they are gonna do for me today and tomorrow. That is just smart buisness. If teams had a way to guarantee performance they would all spend 300 million a year in payroll.
It’s not all on him because these agents the past 5 years are telling their clients NOT to take the QO when in many cases, the QO would have been their best option. Had he taken the QO, he would have maxed out his year same with a few other big name players. I think one pitcher said YES to the QO which shocked the team and he made max dollars which ended up being twice what he got the following year. I think the QO was like 17.9 million so I doubt he gets that in a one year deal I don’t think the short term offers are more than 2 or 3 years and probably not more than 14 million AAV. Could be as low as 12 million. Mousakas took a beating last year , Ian Desmond took a beating the year before. Unless you are a superstar, or know for sure your position is in demand in the market, I would be advising these players to take the QO because they can’t be offered it two years in a row. Bad advice by agents who want to sign their guys to big long term deals but are mis-reading the market badly.
Amen. Boras has cost his clients so much money over the past couple of seasons that it is past embarrassing. Can’t believe Moose hasn’t dropped him yet.
very short term deal. hey Dallas we want to give you 35k to pitch one game sound good?
Steven St Croix
He should go back to Houston on for something like 3/50.
Why would he ever do that?
No one is offering more
Honestly, that’s a fair contract.
He’s not a bad pitcher at all and any team would be better with him, but he’s settled in as a sturdy #3-4 but expects to be paid like he’s still a Cy Young contender.
How are his numbers not in line for a 4-6 year deal worth $100MM?
BECAUSE NO ONE HAS OFFERED THAT!
How *are* his numbers worth that? Also, there’s a big difference between 4/$100 million and 6/$100 million.
well he can sit at home and wait for the 100mil, rkn.
How are you not getting this?
Two former GM’s both said on radio last week they would be offering no more than 15 per at this point. Keuchel better take what he can get today.
A contending teams rotation will be hit with a major injury very soon.
dimitrios in la
And possibly a lot of ineffectiveness prior. Really poor decision by him and his camp to not sign.
LAD, StL, ATL
Great article. I’ve been looking for a quality update on Dallas.
How is it a good article? It provides no real updates. Lol
Haha yah I guess that sounded sarcastic. I just meant there hasn’t been much on him at all this offseason and this has details about his fastball, ground balls, and penalties team would have to give up to sign him.
Kimbrel to Nats 3/50 and Keuchel to Cards/Dodgers 5/85.
Wouldn’t mind the Braves signing either for those contracts but I don’t think it will happen.
A team would be absolutely crazy to give Keuchel 5 years.
Realistically it might be more like 2/40 and 3/55
Nobody’s giving Keuchel 5 years, especially the Dodgers. He will be lucky to see 3 at this point. He may get a 4th year with a vesting option.
Good pitcher, but a poor fit for the Dodgers, who are up to their ears in quality pitching.
Let me see if I got this correct, the Phillies desperately need starting pitching and bullpen help but will only sign Dallas or Kimbrell on short term deals. But had no problems signing Harper to a massive 13 year contract? This is why the Phillies are a joke of a franchise and are farther away from a championship then their fans even realize.
Harper is also a marketing investment. It isn’t simply about winning with Harper, though they certainly hope that comes with the territory. They are putting out some faith in that he ages well and remains an incredibly popular player and attendance booster. Keuchel will never be a major attendance booster (or at best, would be every 5 or 6 days).
im not sure about any more then 2 years with Keuchel given his track record and the fact that we have more arms that may be available in the coming years.
They need to be sure the have enough money for Trout in 2 years, hence only short term deals from now until 2021
A joke of a franchise? the 2019 phillies bullpen is one of the better ones in the league right now, without Kimbrel even. The lineup is one of the better lineups in baseball now.. Aaron Nola is a very solid front line starter. The 2008 phillies won the world series with a stacked lineup, solid bullpen and 1 ace starter (Brett Myers was the #2 on that team). Id love to see them get Keuchel but only a short term deal as others have said. Same with Kimbrel. The team we have right now will be competitive this year or should be.
Brett Myers curveball in 2k was a knee buckler on my tribe.
Yet they still have Kapler
Harper got 13 years. How you know Phillies don’t consider 5 years “short term”
You’re just salty. Harper is a completely different story than Dallas. Apples and oranges. Phillies will get him on a 3 year deal.
Exactly.. a joke franchise wouldn’t have landed the top FA (Harper) and top trade candidate (JTR) in one off-season.
Whitesox going all out for Harper/Machado and ending up with Ivan Nova.. that’s a joke org.
Or Pirates whos top signing was Lonnie Chisenhal for 2 mil.. that’s a joke org.
Or how about the Tigers who are amidst a rebuild while paying Miggy 30mil/year for the next half decade.. that’s a joke org.
But Phillies who went thru a proper rebuild, and kept their promise to spend big when the time was right… That’s an amazing org.
The fact they signed a former MVP (cutch) and he wasn’t even a top 3 addition for them this off-season, is astounding.
Stupid money on smart investments.
You’re funny. Criticizing the tigers about the miggy deal when the phillies just did the same thing with Ryan Howard a few years ago and got a lot less production. My point is every team has a bad contract. Ours was BJ Upton.
That’s sorta true. But the Howard deal was 4 years… Miggy was 10.
There is nothing “astounding” about signing McCutchen. He is way past his prime and is a mediocre player at best now. The lowly Giants threw him away during the season last year because he couldn’t provide anything useful for that sorry team. I’m not saying he is useless, but signing him is not really worth mentioning, much lesss calling it “astounding.”
the Giants dealt him because they stank and he was a free agent at the end of the season.
Phils would be happy with his 2017 numbers, and out of SF and in the Phils ballpark/lineup, no reason he shouldnt be able to reach that, while being a veteran leader for the team.
It’s clear you know nothing about baseball whatsoever. Dallas is not going to get a long term deal from any team, nor should he as he’s on a decline. Kimbrell is a great pitcher, but it’s a ton of money to dump on a closer. Especially when they have some young guys like siranthony who’s looking pretty good. I’ll enjoy your tears when the Phillies dominate in the east. I enjoy the hate for philly;)
And once again you must be a braves or Mets fan, “desperately” need staring pitching? Haha might want to check out the braves starting rotation, half of them are injured at the moment. We got some young guys, but they’re improving.
Once again you could not be any more wrong if you tried. Yankees fan here just stating the obvious they have desperate needs in both areas but they refused to sign these guys from what they are worth but overpay for Harper.
The fact you think the Phils “desperately” need bullpen help , then I’m just stating that you’re a certified moron
The Phillies don’t need bullpen help at all. Their pen is strong; maybe the strongest in the NL East.
As for starters, sure they can use another veteran arm, but I don’t think they desperately need anything. Nola is an ace. Arrieta I don’t expect much from, but he could have somewhat of a bounce back year since he was injured all year last year. Pivetta, Velazquez and Eflin, all showed flashes of potential last year. The Phillies are gambling that one of these guys becomes a legitimate #2.
People forget that the Phillies starting pitching kept them in 1st place for a chunk of the season, even with putrid defense and non-existent offense. The young arms tired out towards the end of the season, but the Phillies plugged most of their holes this offseason. Boosting up the lineup and shoring up the defense was definitely more important than adding another starter. They also added three solid relievers. Like I said, another starter would help, but they’re not desperate for anything.
The young Phillies’ arms tired because none of the 3-4-5 can get past the 5th inning with under 100 pitches which wipes out the bullpen. Phils need Keuchel and another veteran sp which will probably come via trade now that Harper is in the outfield. Three years at 15mil per with an option and incentives should land him and would be s good signing.
Keuchel is 31 and Kimbrel is about to turn 31. Bryce Harper is 26. Math? If I could insert a meme of the Ancient Aliens guy, that would be you.
Nothing screams “desperate for relievers” like have 4 of the top 100 2018 relievers, and then adding a top 25 reliever in the offseason. And then adding Pat Neshek, Juan Nicasio, and a full year of Hector Neris who was one of the best relievers in baseball after the ASB.
Just absolutely desparate and a joke of a franchise. What a joke to have one of the best lineups and bullpens in baseball.
What a joke for not repeating their mistakes and giving another 4 year deal to an over the hump, over 30 YO starter who’s had one elite-level season in his career. Just a joke.
Kuechel is a good pitcher. Other SPs in the past (Hammel, Shields, etc.) were worse/older and got a lot of money. No reason Kuechel shouldn’t get $20MM AAV for 3-4 years.
Look at how a lot of those deals turned out. The landscape of the sport has changed and FO’s are getting smarter on not giving out those kinds of contracts. It’s not I side with the owners/FOs as I think in the next CBA there will be a push to get more money to the players earlier in their careers.
Times have changed since those deals.
Both pitchers have priced themselves out of the market at the onset of free agency. $100 million for Kimbrell??? Not happening.
Why would the Twins not want to get better?? Besides Berrios, we have no accomplished starter controlled beyond 2020 and I’d much rather have Keuchel over Pineda/Gibson/Odorizzi (don’t trust em).
I agree, it does make sense for the the Twins to be in play on him. I think something like $48-52/3 should get it done.
I think the feeling is this — the Twins will not do squat (as in Division competitor) unless most or all of the combination of Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Rosario at least approach their potential. I think if that starts happening this year, they will make adjustments during the season. If it doesn’t, and the wins and losses also remain disappointing, what’s the point in investing in high-cost pitching? I think this is a sink or swim season for the Twins in a lot of ways, or maybe better put — an indicator of future direction.
If Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Rosario approach the potential Twins fans believe they have, there’s no reason to sign guys like Keuchel. After all, with that kind of wishful thinking, why not just expect Stewart, Romero, Meija and Graterol to achieve their potential?
The Twins don’t need mid rotation arms. They need a rotation leader. Something they haven’t had since Johan Santana.
Twins would make a whole lot of sense if they seriously want to contend this year. however, they may also like to see more of what their younger players are rather then exploring a veteran option.
stan lee the manly
It baffles me that they are sitting out doing almost nothing with how incredibly weak that division is. If there was ever a time to cash in on some chips and go for it, now would be it. Cleveland isn’t a playoff team in any other division in baseball.
Maybe not in the AL East, but Cleveland is a very good team that underperformed last year. They have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball and a lineup that does have glaring holes, but also includes two of the best players in baseball.
Yeah, if they spend all those millions they’ll turn that division longshot into…a division longshot?
Braves and Twins orgs wouldn’t stock up on $1 gas; let alone buy it right now..
Stay away Padres….. stay away….
I’m sure he’s telling himself the same thing. Probably would like to win somewhere.
Snit — you picking a fight or just trolling the troll juice?
Actually at this point, he’s probably just hoping somebody gives him a contract.
I think he makes sense there actually. Would be a good veteran for the young pitchers to learn from, and would help accelerate their push to contend.
So, ‘better than weakest starter’; so he’s good for a solid $8MM 1-year
Honestly at some point the jays need to get in on this. Even a 1-1 with a player option at 20MM per. Sanchez, Stroman, Borucki and a bunch of even more uncertain pitchers could use innings and stability.
I wouldn’t mind Keuchel going to my cardinals but not for more than 3 or 4 years. Maybe 3/50 plus a player option for another 10mil or so.
Lol, I’m most likely wrong, but I still see getting 100M
Honestly, 50M is a steal. (Even with his deficiencies)
to the Yankees, im sure
I doubt it.
It is getting really late to sign a SP.
Needed to be done before Position Players report.
Things have changed.
Oakland should sign him. They won’t because they’re Oakland.
Well Said !!
Both Keuchel and Kimbrel are likely to be significant additions to whomever signs them. But the problem for both is the market is signaling “don’t wait for the last dollar”
If that’s the environment, and I was the player, I’d want my agent to be fully cognizant at the beginning. And I’m not necessarily sure I’d want Boras….how would I know I had his attention?
the Brewers should sign him
When did fastball velocity directly correlate to ERA? I’ll present exhibit A: Greg Maddux.
When people starting getting enamored with high velocity and launch angles. Baseball has a fundamental flaw in the way it evaluates players and talent. Greg Maddux wouldn’t be nearly as valued as he was if he was a pitcher today. And I think he’s the greatest pitcher of all time.
Tom Glavine, a former 1st round pick, stated he might not even get drafted today because he only threw 90. And that’s what is wrong with only looking at numbers. HOF is filled with guys that three 90-92 for 15 years. How many of these 98-100 will even play 15 years? Those guys could toss a complete game with 105 pitches , today that gets you 5 innings.
Fastball velocity is just one of the factors. His K/9 is getting dangerously low and his GB% is trending in the wrong direction. There are a plethora of red flags with this guy.
It doesn’t mean he isn’t serviceable, but I wouldn’t want my team to spend $100 million on him.
Nationals may as well go over the tax. I image they are a 3-4 yrs away from a full on rebuild.
Anyone signing either of them on a 1 year deal is just throwing money away. It has happened many times in the past. When players, especially pitchers miss a good part of Spring Training, they spend a good portion of the year playing catch up. It happened with Greg Holland last year. It happened to Lance Lynn a couple years back. I effectively ruined Stephen Drew’s career.
I’m not saying they won’t be successful on a long term basis, but I would bet on either of them being successful in 2019.
Cards 100% should get serious about Keuchel if he is willing to listen to a 3 year arrieta-like deal. He’d give you a solid lefty every fifth day to anchor a young and talented but injury prone rotation.
Forget Keuchel to the Cardinals unless he becomes a 1year deal guy. They got burned by signing Holland last season. I do agree they need a strong left handed starter.
I still like to see him on the Sox for 3 years.
Does anyone know what Keuchel’s ask has been? If it is a huge number or a reasonable AAV over an unreasonable amount of years, I can see why he has not been signed.
Considering his injury history the last couple of years. to go along with a drop in some of his numbers, velocity not withstandin, he would be a risk for either very high AAV shorter term or for a long number of guaranteed years.
Reports as that he started out asking for an AAV of 25M…..and don’t think he’s budged much from it. Which is why he’s still sitting.
8 years/360 million
It’s funny how the Braves management continue to not have any concerns and continue to not find it necessary to make any moves. There are just sooooooooo many question marks with this team, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3rd-4th place finish in the NL East.
Yep it is
These guys way overvalue their worth and don’t sign. Right now if I was a team I would be worried he will be like Greg Holland and suffer from not pitching. The notes from the Twins and Braves are laughable. They only shop the bottom tier of free agents and when they do sign it is for a Donaldson who is such an overpay.
That’s inconsistent information on Kimbrel’s speed
Well, it needs to be said. At this point, the only reason this team is in the top 3 in most farm rankings is mostly due to quantity over quality.
The one guy I’m still holding out hope for is Touki. He is the one and only guy out of the bunch that can be an ace. I don’t want to say it is only ST but if he can’t throw strikes against minor leaguers and still gets supposedly nervous, then he has no hope.
Wright, Allard, Wilson and at this point Soroka, i already gave up on.
Then you get to the major league starters. I’ll be nice with my words this time. Get rid of Newcomb and JT already. The Braves will continue to milk these guys the same way they milked Sims and Wisler. Both are, were, and will always be trash.
Honestly, when writing all this i realize how terrible Copp was and it was a blessing in disguise that he is now gone. Honestly still bitter the garbage they got for Simmons, Kimbrel and Upton.
Wow! You really have no clue what you are talking about.
I’ve heard the same from likes like you about Heyward and Swanson.
Don’t get me started on Soto vs Acuna! One has a hole in their swing, the other one doesn’t..wonder who is the latter?
Certain fans like to look at things with rainbows and unicorns, but limit their mind to just BS just to reassure themselves that everything will be ok,
You’re right. I’m shocked ESPN or the MLB Network haven’t hired you as an analyst yet, since you seem to have all the answers. Hell, the Braves should hire you as a scout. No wait, you should be the next Commisioner, but that would probably be below you.
Are you a Gnostic? (Directed at AllOurGods)
Yep. Quantity is right. All those top 100 prospects. Guess all those evaluators who do this for a living are wrong and you are right. Maybe you should get a job at Baseball America or Prospectus and set all those fools right.
No one is debating whether these players should be top 100 or not. The fact of the matter is, the sum of the rebuild, trades, signings has produced ZERO top tier pitching talent. Hell, even in most rankings today, none of the pitchers are in the top 20 overall.
The point is, they traded Kimbrel and Simmons for absolutely nothing and are now banking on rookies with no resume to fill in the holes.
Actually no. We unloaded Melvin Upton’s contract and had no use for Kimbrel since we were going into a rebuild. And we turned the 41st pick we got into Austin Riley, one of our top position prospects.
And Simmons we traded for Newcomb, which you may have given up on, but that is just an absurd comment considering the guy has one full season under his belt and has been the most consistent pitcher in spring training. I wouldn’t say that’s nothing, but please enlighten me oh wise one.
Wright is 23, Gohora is 22 and Allard is 21. What kind of time line were you expecting of these guys?
I suppose if one of these pitchers WERE in the top 20 then you would just maligne how none of them are in the top 10.
By the way, your personal hopefull, Touki, was never top 20 either. You are simply demonstrating impatience and personal bias for one prospect over another.
Pitching takes more time to develop than other places in the roster. You need to wait and allow these players who are just starting their major league careers to develop at the major league level. Maybe one or two will develop into an ace and a good no.2
and what benefit did they gain from getting rid of Upton’s contract other than not having his face in the clubhouse? They were still bottom of the barrel team when he was gone.
I’m not arguing keeping Kimbrel was necessary. They traded him (and Upton) to the Padres for nothing other than keeping more money in the owners pockets. He was the best closer in the game and all they got was Wisler.
I’m glad you like Newcomb though. He will hopefully be gone soon.
Again, we received the 41st pick in the draft for Kimbrel which turned into Austin Riley. And you need to learn a little more about baseball and player development if you think a pitcher can be written off after one full season. Tell me, how were Glavine and Maddux’s first full season? I will give you a hint, they were terrible, much worse than Newcomb.
But I’m done discussing this with you because you obviously know very little about baseball.
That is fine. See you in a few years when the rotation is in shambles because no one ended up being top tier..although the problem already exists
Dodgers should just sign him being that Kershaw is hurt, Hill last year and the Buehler is going to need back up
I really wish one of the small market teams like my Pirates would go out and grab him. But the Pirates are so tight they will likely start charging to use the bathrooms.
If Keuchel and Kimbrels markets both drop to one year deals, wouldn’t mind the Yankees jumping in on one or both. Preferably Keuchel, I’d be happy with having him on a 2 or 3 year deal as well
Yanks should offer Keuchel a two year deal but Kimbrel has no spot on Yanks.
We definitely could use them in Cincy,what we have is not going to get it done but no long term deals
If I’m the Cardinals, I’d offer him 3/48, opt out after 1 year, vesting option for a 4th. Turn that down and he can rot.
Get rid of the luxury tax… and I guarantee you the Phillies or Yankees would have already signed him. The luxury tax is bad for business AND its bad for players.
The luxury tax is good for the league and good for players. It’s not the reason teams like the Twins are pocketing pure profits.
This is all going to lead to strike. This whole “not paying for past performance” thing is smart of the surface, but the reality is MLB locks these guys into under market contracts for the first half dozen years of their careers. If owners are going to play the “value” game, the players union is going to want some value earlier in their careers.
I see him going to the pads for a 3 year deal
You guys realize what Cashman is doing right?
I haven’t heard this, read this anywhere. Cashman is building a right handed dominant lineup for the following reasons:
1- left handed bats are getting crushed avg wise with the shift. Look at Harper as the shifts increased on him his average plummeted. He tried to adjust now strikes out even more.
2- Cashman is picking certain right handed bats that love to go opposite field towards the short porch in Yankee Stadium. They just signed another RH bat in DJ Lem who hits for average and drives the ball the other way. He could have signed a switch hitting Marwin Gonzalez who is more versatile but decided to go with DJ for that bat that goes opposite field and his stellar glove at second when we already have a 2nd basemen!
3- he traded for Stanton last season knowing he would be out on Harper even though Yankee Stadium was built for LH bats because the shift is killing LH bats. Texiera is another great example.
Cashman has a plan based on his analytic department.
you belong in the front office bro
Did Cashman’s analytic’s department also tell him that Harper has batted .286, .346, .271 vs shift the last 3 years. All those averages higher than Stanton’s. Incidentally, Stanton batted .229/.779 in NY vs. .300/.921 away.
Or that LeMahieu’s last two-year splits were .322/.804 in Coors and .265/.729 away. During same period Gonzalez batted .293/.859 away from Houston.
Or that James Paxton had an ERA of 3.99 ERA away from Safeco last 3 years, with a 4.24 ERA in his “breakout” campaign of 2018.
Since it’s pretty clear now that Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t all-in on expensive elite free agents maybe his front office can convince him that Dallas Keuchel would be a worthy investment instead. Any White Sox fan holding out hope that their beloved might land Chris Sale in free agency next offseason should now be convinced that will never happen, not with the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros also likely bidders, to say nothing of other big spenders in the NL.
The White Sox have always preferred bargain shopping and Keuchel would now appear to be in that category. That’s not say that the White Sox would be his first choice among the thrift shoppers so they will still need to meet Keuchel and his reps half-way on any likely FA deal. I think a fair and possible winning bid for the White Sox would be a guarantee of 3 years with an AAV around $20M which would also include two comparable team vesting options allowing him a chance for a $100M contract while potentially keeping him in their rotation for 5 years and through the 2023 season.
The front office could then have their marketing department pitch Keuchel as their next Mark Buehrle which would be a pretty good analogy anyway considering he is a soft-tossing southpaw with excellent command, has won multiple Gold Glove Awards and wears a World Series ring. Keuchel has also been a very successful starting pitcher in a home park in Houston that is at least as hitter and HR friendly as the one Buehrle toiled in as a fan favorite on the South Side of Chicago for 12 years. All this is a direct result of their ability to command their arsenal while achieving soft contact and a lot of ground balls from opposing hitters. Keuchel has also accomplished something that Buehrle and even Sale have yet to do…win a Cy Young Award.
Another solid point in the White Sox adding Keuchel would be the lack of elite left-handed starting pitching prospects in their minor league system. The only high ceiling southpaw they currently have is former first round draft pick Carlos Rodon who is now pegged to be their opening day starter in Kansas City later this month. The problem with Rodon has been his inconsistency which can mostly be attributed to shoulder issues. Keuchel also has had some injury problems but they haven’t always involved his throwing arm. Despite this concern, Keuchel has still managed to average 29 starts and 190 IP’s in his last 5 seasons including 34 and 204.2 last season. Rodon hasn’t approached those numbers in his 4 year White Sox career.
Another factor for signing Keuchel is that Rodon only has three more seasons of arbitration control before hitting free agency following the 2021 season. Considering that he is also a Scott Boras client, that figures to transpire with little chance of an extension. Should Rodon finally manage to approach his enormous potential over those remaining 3 year he will have also priced himself out of any chance the White Sox could retain him, both with their reluctance to hand out huge years and dollars for FA’s (particularly pitchers) but also because of JR’s long running feud with Boras which was probably yet another reason they ultimately passed on Bryce Harper this offseason.
Most White Sox fans would have preferred either Manny Machado or Harper to be on their opening day roster and part of the team for the next decade. Many, including yours truly would then have wanted the front office to supplement that big splash with the addition of Keuchel. It might have made more sense to pursue Keuchel had the latter scenario unfolded but there are still ample reasons for the White Sox to pursue a potential “Blue Light” special in Keuchel before opening day.
Simple,He’s Not signed because he wasn’t as effective the last couple of years according to my two eyes
Both he and Kimbrel aren’t without some flags. Dallas gave up a lot of hits and his K’s plummeted. Guys are making more contact. Think there’s the reason teams are reluctant to gamble on a 4-5 year deal unless he lowers his asking price. I think he can get 3-48/50 but if he wants a longer deal he’s got to lower his asking price a bit. The Corbin, Arrieta and Darvish offers aren’t coming pal.
I’m still hoping Sterns can work his magic one more time and sign Dallas to a 3yrs/$56MM deal to come to Milwaukee.
that sounds pretty reasonable but you have concerns about a high ground ball pitcher with Shaw and Moose at third and second?
No, because the Brewers implement shifts more than any other team in the league besides advanced metrics show Shaw is actually an above average defender at 3B
Difficult to feel sorry for him, he had a guaranteed contract offer at the end of the season. Sure it was only for a year but at the QO rate. Not bad for a years work.
Ego got him
I believe the Astros offed him 90/5 in 2016
Absolutely!!! Greed has sunk these 2 pitchers for 2019.
Scott B strikes again.
He is no longer a miracle worker.
several players must regret listening to him.
HA HA HA
Unfortunately players and their agents often don’t want to acknowledge the analytics and stats surrounding the player. But team management does and they often see big risks whereas players simply see the dollar signs. $$$$. At times, many players even develop a sense of entitlement. Kuechel has real talent for sure. But overall loss of velocity and significant nagging injuries are not necessarily someone you want give big money and term to. Especially when they have already hit 31. The era is already here where players over the age of 30 will increasingly have difficulty to get long term deals. Kuechel would be a good fit in Milwaukee or Atlanta.
You can point to injuries as a reason Dallas does not deserve the pay day he thinks he does but you can’t point to velocity. It is not his care talent. He has never relied on the velocity. further more the drop over time is far less than many power pitchers experience going into the their age 29-32 campaigns.
Keuchel is a lot like Jamie Moyer, who used his change like a fastball. and when he did finally throw that mid to upper 80s “heater” he often blew batters away because they were sitting on the change up. He had MLB success and plenty of Ks for more than a decade. Velocity should have nothing to do with this cintract.
Wish it. Want it. Do it.
What you may see out of the next CBA is a shorter duration of control for teams based on the contract situation once guys get over 30 being what it is. That or lift the limitations on PEDs and let these guys play at high levels until their 40 and get paid as such.
I fully expect the loss of 1 pre-arbitration year and 1 arbitration year in the next CBA, but it’s going to get awfully close to a strike if a strike doesn’t happen. In addition, I think there will be a “Savings tax” for teams who don’t spend more than a certain amount. Maybe $100M as the floor without a revenue sharing reduction.
No rules can stop market forces. You are getting market adjustments.
“It’s not a stretch to suggest that virtually any team in baseball would be improved by swapping out Keuchel for its current weakest starter”
There is the problem. It isn’t that Keuchel is without value, it is that he profiles at best as mid-rotation, but he’s seeking to be paid like a #1 or #2. Of course, he would improve any team if he replaced the weakest starter, but that pitcher might be making around $1M, maybe even pre-arb wages. Substituting a $20M salary makes no sense to any team with a budget.
Exactly. When a player and agent refuse to acknowledge the analytics, it’s simply greed and entitlement.
Cubs should give him an offer. 2/22. Mutual option for a 3rd year. Chatwood will not be a 5th or even a spot starter..
That’s a solid starting rotation. Hamels is likely done after this season. Unless he has a cy young like year. Then they might try to re-sign for 2020
Wish the Pirates would make this dude an offer. Maybe two or three years. Two with a 3rd option. Taillon, Archer, Keuchel, Williams, Musgrove. I’m certainly a fan of that rotation. God knows Bob can afford it while starting with a $70M payroll this year. It’s a simple little move that could make the Bucs a pretty damn good pitching staff. Especially if that bullpen holds the way it did last year.
Now that I see there isn’t much of a market for him, maybe Pittsburgh could make an offer. 4 years at $60M with incentives to get him near the $20M AAV he’s looking for. Incentives like $1M at each: 20 games, 25, games, and 30 games. $1M to be Top 5 in NL Cy Young voting, and another $1M for all-star selection. No injury history to suggest he couldn’t get at least $10M of those incentives.
I’m glad Brain Jordan agrees with me that the braves rotation is not convincing.
The Chicago Cubs should also sign Dallas Keuchel this season as well!