The Astros haven’t been engaged on Dallas Keuchel in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest look at the free-agent left-hander’s apparently stagnant market (subscription required). The Phillies, he adds, still have interest only in a “very” short-term deal, as was reported last week. Meanwhile, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that unless Keuchel or free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is suddenly willing to take a one-year deal, the Twins aren’t likely to sign either pitcher three weeks into Spring Training. As for the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote late last week that spring ailments for Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman haven’t been deemed concerning enough for Atlanta to pursue Keuchel.
It’s hardly an encouraging set of updates for either free agent, particularly Keuchel, whom Olney suggests is being harmed to an extent by the fact that he doesn’t fit today’s mold of hard throwers that permeate the game. Olney notes that Keuchel’s average fastball (89.3 mph) ranked 55th of 57 starters who qualified for the ERA title in 2018.
While perhaps some teams would prefer harder-throwing options, that stat doesn’t seem especially concerning when presented with further context. Keuchel’s average fastball last season was actually improved over a pair of seasons in which he was slowed by back and neck injuries in 2016-17. In fact, in Keuchel’s Cy Young-winning 2015 season, he averaged just 89.6 mph on his heater, so it’d be puzzling to see significant level of concern over that fastball velocity. Furthermore, a look at the names around Keuchel near the bottom of the fastball velocity leaderboard includes quality arms such as Marco Gonzales, Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, ranked only 43rd among those 57 qualified starters at 90.8 mph, and he secured a six-year contract that promises him $140MM. That deal came at a younger age and on the heels of a better season, clearly, but the contract still runs counter to the idea that teams will only pay for premium velocity.
None of that is to say that Keuchel isn’t without red flags, of course. The lefty’s strikeout percentage dipped from 21.4 percent in 2017 to 17.5 percent in 2018 (7.7 K/9 vs. 6.7), and his swinging-strike rate fell from 10.9 percent to 8.3 percent. His ground-ball rate of 53.7 percent, while well north of the league average, also represented a substantial step back from 2017’s 66.8 percent mark and from his overall career mark of 58.8 percent. All of that surely sets off some alarms for interested teams, but Keuchel was nevertheless a quality starter in 2018, as has been the case for several years. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference suggest he’s been worth 18 wins above replacement over the past five seasons — including a combined six or more WAR over his past two campaigns.
It’s not a stretch to suggest that virtually any team in baseball would be improved by swapping out Keuchel for its current weakest starter, but as is always the case in free agency, the financial element plays a significant role. It seems quite likely that some clubs that had interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel early this winter balked at the duo’s reported nine-figure asking prices and went on to spend their money elsewhere. Now, even if those asking prices have come down, some previously interested teams may simply not have ownership permission to spend significant dollars on another free agent. Both pitchers also rejected qualifying offers, meaning a team signing either former All-Star would be subject to the forfeiture of at least one draft pick (and potentially some international bonus pool space).
It’ll be worth keeping an eye on injuries to prominent pitchers throughout the league in the coming days to see if a new window opens. Clayton Kershaw has been battling a shoulder issue, for instance. The Braves, as previously mentioned, have multiple starters who have been dealing with injuries thus far in camp. The Cardinals may be without Carlos Martinez to open the season. Further injuries will surely arise elsewhere, although the longer Keuchel and Kimbrel wait, the more questionable it is whether either will be ready to pitch in a big league game come Opening Day.
i hope for Keuchel’s sake he signes for more than a year. a lot of the pitchers who signed late had trouble getting going last year.
very short term deal. hey Dallas we want to give you 35k to pitch one game sound good?
He should go back to Houston on for something like 3/50.
Why would he ever do that?
No one is offering more
Honestly, that’s a fair contract.
He’s not a bad pitcher at all and any team would be better with him, but he’s settled in as a sturdy #3-4 but expects to be paid like he’s still a Cy Young contender.
How are his numbers not in line for a 4-6 year deal worth $100MM?
BECAUSE NO ONE HAS OFFERED THAT!
How *are* his numbers worth that? Also, there’s a big difference between 4/$100 million and 6/$100 million.
well he can sit at home and wait for the 100mil, rkn.
@oldoak33
How are you not getting this?
Two former GM’s both said on radio last week they would be offering no more than 15 per at this point. Keuchel better take what he can get today.
A contending teams rotation will be hit with a major injury very soon.
And possibly a lot of ineffectiveness prior. Really poor decision by him and his camp to not sign.
LAD, StL, ATL
Great article. I’ve been looking for a quality update on Dallas.
How is it a good article? It provides no real updates. Lol
Haha yah I guess that sounded sarcastic. I just meant there hasn’t been much on him at all this offseason and this has details about his fastball, ground balls, and penalties team would have to give up to sign him.
Kimbrel to Nats 3/50 and Keuchel to Cards/Dodgers 5/85.
Wouldn’t mind the Braves signing either for those contracts but I don’t think it will happen.
A team would be absolutely crazy to give Keuchel 5 years.
Realistically it might be more like 2/40 and 3/55
Nobody’s giving Keuchel 5 years, especially the Dodgers. He will be lucky to see 3 at this point. He may get a 4th year with a vesting option.
Good pitcher, but a poor fit for the Dodgers, who are up to their ears in quality pitching.
Let me see if I got this correct, the Phillies desperately need starting pitching and bullpen help but will only sign Dallas or Kimbrell on short term deals. But had no problems signing Harper to a massive 13 year contract? This is why the Phillies are a joke of a franchise and are farther away from a championship then their fans even realize.
Kuechel is a good pitcher. Other SPs in the past (Hammel, Shields, etc.) were worse/older and got a lot of money. No reason Kuechel shouldn’t get $20MM AAV for 3-4 years.
Look at how a lot of those deals turned out. The landscape of the sport has changed and FO’s are getting smarter on not giving out those kinds of contracts. It’s not I side with the owners/FOs as I think in the next CBA there will be a push to get more money to the players earlier in their careers.
Times have changed since those deals.
Both pitchers have priced themselves out of the market at the onset of free agency. $100 million for Kimbrell??? Not happening.
Why would the Twins not want to get better?? Besides Berrios, we have no accomplished starter controlled beyond 2020 and I’d much rather have Keuchel over Pineda/Gibson/Odorizzi (don’t trust em).
I agree, it does make sense for the the Twins to be in play on him. I think something like $48-52/3 should get it done.
I think the feeling is this — the Twins will not do squat (as in Division competitor) unless most or all of the combination of Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Rosario at least approach their potential. I think if that starts happening this year, they will make adjustments during the season. If it doesn’t, and the wins and losses also remain disappointing, what’s the point in investing in high-cost pitching? I think this is a sink or swim season for the Twins in a lot of ways, or maybe better put — an indicator of future direction.
If Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Rosario approach the potential Twins fans believe they have, there’s no reason to sign guys like Keuchel. After all, with that kind of wishful thinking, why not just expect Stewart, Romero, Meija and Graterol to achieve their potential?
The Twins don’t need mid rotation arms. They need a rotation leader. Something they haven’t had since Johan Santana.
Twins would make a whole lot of sense if they seriously want to contend this year. however, they may also like to see more of what their younger players are rather then exploring a veteran option.
It baffles me that they are sitting out doing almost nothing with how incredibly weak that division is. If there was ever a time to cash in on some chips and go for it, now would be it. Cleveland isn’t a playoff team in any other division in baseball.
Maybe not in the AL East, but Cleveland is a very good team that underperformed last year. They have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball and a lineup that does have glaring holes, but also includes two of the best players in baseball.
Yeah, if they spend all those millions they’ll turn that division longshot into…a division longshot?
Braves and Twins orgs wouldn’t stock up on $1 gas; let alone buy it right now..
Stay away Padres….. stay away….
I’m sure he’s telling himself the same thing. Probably would like to win somewhere.
Nice lol
Snit — you picking a fight or just trolling the troll juice?
Actually at this point, he’s probably just hoping somebody gives him a contract.
I think he makes sense there actually. Would be a good veteran for the young pitchers to learn from, and would help accelerate their push to contend.
So, ‘better than weakest starter’; so he’s good for a solid $8MM 1-year
contract?
Honestly at some point the jays need to get in on this. Even a 1-1 with a player option at 20MM per. Sanchez, Stroman, Borucki and a bunch of even more uncertain pitchers could use innings and stability.
I wouldn’t mind Keuchel going to my cardinals but not for more than 3 or 4 years. Maybe 3/50 plus a player option for another 10mil or so.
Lol, I’m most likely wrong, but I still see getting 100M
Honestly, 50M is a steal. (Even with his deficiencies)
to the Yankees, im sure
I doubt it.
It is getting really late to sign a SP.
Needed to be done before Position Players report.
Things have changed.
Oakland should sign him. They won’t because they’re Oakland.
Well Said !!
Both Keuchel and Kimbrel are likely to be significant additions to whomever signs them. But the problem for both is the market is signaling “don’t wait for the last dollar”
If that’s the environment, and I was the player, I’d want my agent to be fully cognizant at the beginning. And I’m not necessarily sure I’d want Boras….how would I know I had his attention?
the Brewers should sign him
When did fastball velocity directly correlate to ERA? I’ll present exhibit A: Greg Maddux.
When people starting getting enamored with high velocity and launch angles. Baseball has a fundamental flaw in the way it evaluates players and talent. Greg Maddux wouldn’t be nearly as valued as he was if he was a pitcher today. And I think he’s the greatest pitcher of all time.
Tom Glavine, a former 1st round pick, stated he might not even get drafted today because he only threw 90. And that’s what is wrong with only looking at numbers. HOF is filled with guys that three 90-92 for 15 years. How many of these 98-100 will even play 15 years? Those guys could toss a complete game with 105 pitches , today that gets you 5 innings.
Fastball velocity is just one of the factors. His K/9 is getting dangerously low and his GB% is trending in the wrong direction. There are a plethora of red flags with this guy.
It doesn’t mean he isn’t serviceable, but I wouldn’t want my team to spend $100 million on him.
Nationals may as well go over the tax. I image they are a 3-4 yrs away from a full on rebuild.
Anyone signing either of them on a 1 year deal is just throwing money away. It has happened many times in the past. When players, especially pitchers miss a good part of Spring Training, they spend a good portion of the year playing catch up. It happened with Greg Holland last year. It happened to Lance Lynn a couple years back. I effectively ruined Stephen Drew’s career.
I’m not saying they won’t be successful on a long term basis, but I would bet on either of them being successful in 2019.
Cards 100% should get serious about Keuchel if he is willing to listen to a 3 year arrieta-like deal. He’d give you a solid lefty every fifth day to anchor a young and talented but injury prone rotation.
Forget Keuchel to the Cardinals unless he becomes a 1year deal guy. They got burned by signing Holland last season. I do agree they need a strong left handed starter.
I still like to see him on the Sox for 3 years.
Does anyone know what Keuchel’s ask has been? If it is a huge number or a reasonable AAV over an unreasonable amount of years, I can see why he has not been signed.
Considering his injury history the last couple of years. to go along with a drop in some of his numbers, velocity not withstandin, he would be a risk for either very high AAV shorter term or for a long number of guaranteed years.
Reports as that he started out asking for an AAV of 25M…..and don’t think he’s budged much from it. Which is why he’s still sitting.
8 years/360 million
It’s funny how the Braves management continue to not have any concerns and continue to not find it necessary to make any moves. There are just sooooooooo many question marks with this team, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3rd-4th place finish in the NL East.
These guys way overvalue their worth and don’t sign. Right now if I was a team I would be worried he will be like Greg Holland and suffer from not pitching. The notes from the Twins and Braves are laughable. They only shop the bottom tier of free agents and when they do sign it is for a Donaldson who is such an overpay.
That’s inconsistent information on Kimbrel’s speed
fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=6655&posit…
Well, it needs to be said. At this point, the only reason this team is in the top 3 in most farm rankings is mostly due to quantity over quality.
The one guy I’m still holding out hope for is Touki. He is the one and only guy out of the bunch that can be an ace. I don’t want to say it is only ST but if he can’t throw strikes against minor leaguers and still gets supposedly nervous, then he has no hope.
Wright, Allard, Wilson and at this point Soroka, i already gave up on.
Then you get to the major league starters. I’ll be nice with my words this time. Get rid of Newcomb and JT already. The Braves will continue to milk these guys the same way they milked Sims and Wisler. Both are, were, and will always be trash.
Honestly, when writing all this i realize how terrible Copp was and it was a blessing in disguise that he is now gone. Honestly still bitter the garbage they got for Simmons, Kimbrel and Upton.
Wow! You really have no clue what you are talking about.
I’ve heard the same from likes like you about Heyward and Swanson.
Don’t get me started on Soto vs Acuna! One has a hole in their swing, the other one doesn’t..wonder who is the latter?
Certain fans like to look at things with rainbows and unicorns, but limit their mind to just BS just to reassure themselves that everything will be ok,
Barstool knowledge.
You’re right. I’m shocked ESPN or the MLB Network haven’t hired you as an analyst yet, since you seem to have all the answers. Hell, the Braves should hire you as a scout. No wait, you should be the next Commisioner, but that would probably be below you.
Are you a Gnostic? (Directed at AllOurGods)
Yep. Quantity is right. All those top 100 prospects. Guess all those evaluators who do this for a living are wrong and you are right. Maybe you should get a job at Baseball America or Prospectus and set all those fools right.
No one is debating whether these players should be top 100 or not. The fact of the matter is, the sum of the rebuild, trades, signings has produced ZERO top tier pitching talent. Hell, even in most rankings today, none of the pitchers are in the top 20 overall.
The point is, they traded Kimbrel and Simmons for absolutely nothing and are now banking on rookies with no resume to fill in the holes.
Actually no. We unloaded Melvin Upton’s contract and had no use for Kimbrel since we were going into a rebuild. And we turned the 41st pick we got into Austin Riley, one of our top position prospects.
And Simmons we traded for Newcomb, which you may have given up on, but that is just an absurd comment considering the guy has one full season under his belt and has been the most consistent pitcher in spring training. I wouldn’t say that’s nothing, but please enlighten me oh wise one.
Wright is 23, Gohora is 22 and Allard is 21. What kind of time line were you expecting of these guys?
I suppose if one of these pitchers WERE in the top 20 then you would just maligne how none of them are in the top 10.
By the way, your personal hopefull, Touki, was never top 20 either. You are simply demonstrating impatience and personal bias for one prospect over another.
Pitching takes more time to develop than other places in the roster. You need to wait and allow these players who are just starting their major league careers to develop at the major league level. Maybe one or two will develop into an ace and a good no.2
and what benefit did they gain from getting rid of Upton’s contract other than not having his face in the clubhouse? They were still bottom of the barrel team when he was gone.
I’m not arguing keeping Kimbrel was necessary. They traded him (and Upton) to the Padres for nothing other than keeping more money in the owners pockets. He was the best closer in the game and all they got was Wisler.
I’m glad you like Newcomb though. He will hopefully be gone soon.
Again, we received the 41st pick in the draft for Kimbrel which turned into Austin Riley. And you need to learn a little more about baseball and player development if you think a pitcher can be written off after one full season. Tell me, how were Glavine and Maddux’s first full season? I will give you a hint, they were terrible, much worse than Newcomb.
But I’m done discussing this with you because you obviously know very little about baseball.
That is fine. See you in a few years when the rotation is in shambles because no one ended up being top tier..although the problem already exists
Downvote
Dodgers should just sign him being that Kershaw is hurt, Hill last year and the Buehler is going to need back up
I really wish one of the small market teams like my Pirates would go out and grab him. But the Pirates are so tight they will likely start charging to use the bathrooms.
If Keuchel and Kimbrels markets both drop to one year deals, wouldn’t mind the Yankees jumping in on one or both. Preferably Keuchel, I’d be happy with having him on a 2 or 3 year deal as well
Yanks should offer Keuchel a two year deal but Kimbrel has no spot on Yanks.
We definitely could use them in Cincy,what we have is not going to get it done but no long term deals
If I’m the Cardinals, I’d offer him 3/48, opt out after 1 year, vesting option for a 4th. Turn that down and he can rot.
Get rid of the luxury tax… and I guarantee you the Phillies or Yankees would have already signed him. The luxury tax is bad for business AND its bad for players.
The luxury tax is good for the league and good for players. It’s not the reason teams like the Twins are pocketing pure profits.
This is all going to lead to strike. This whole “not paying for past performance” thing is smart of the surface, but the reality is MLB locks these guys into under market contracts for the first half dozen years of their careers. If owners are going to play the “value” game, the players union is going to want some value earlier in their careers.
I see him going to the pads for a 3 year deal
You guys realize what Cashman is doing right?
I haven’t heard this, read this anywhere. Cashman is building a right handed dominant lineup for the following reasons:
1- left handed bats are getting crushed avg wise with the shift. Look at Harper as the shifts increased on him his average plummeted. He tried to adjust now strikes out even more.
2- Cashman is picking certain right handed bats that love to go opposite field towards the short porch in Yankee Stadium. They just signed another RH bat in DJ Lem who hits for average and drives the ball the other way. He could have signed a switch hitting Marwin Gonzalez who is more versatile but decided to go with DJ for that bat that goes opposite field and his stellar glove at second when we already have a 2nd basemen!
3- he traded for Stanton last season knowing he would be out on Harper even though Yankee Stadium was built for LH bats because the shift is killing LH bats. Texiera is another great example.
Cashman has a plan based on his analytic department.
you belong in the front office bro
Did Cashman’s analytic’s department also tell him that Harper has batted .286, .346, .271 vs shift the last 3 years. All those averages higher than Stanton’s. Incidentally, Stanton batted .229/.779 in NY vs. .300/.921 away.
Or that LeMahieu’s last two-year splits were .322/.804 in Coors and .265/.729 away. During same period Gonzalez batted .293/.859 away from Houston.
Or that James Paxton had an ERA of 3.99 ERA away from Safeco last 3 years, with a 4.24 ERA in his “breakout” campaign of 2018.
Since it’s pretty clear now that Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t all-in on expensive elite free agents maybe his front office can convince him that Dallas Keuchel would be a worthy investment instead. Any White Sox fan holding out hope that their beloved might land Chris Sale in free agency next offseason should now be convinced that will never happen, not with the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros also likely bidders, to say nothing of other big spenders in the NL.
The White Sox have always preferred bargain shopping and Keuchel would now appear to be in that category. That’s not say that the White Sox would be his first choice among the thrift shoppers so they will still need to meet Keuchel and his reps half-way on any likely FA deal. I think a fair and possible winning bid for the White Sox would be a guarantee of 3 years with an AAV around $20M which would also include two comparable team vesting options allowing him a chance for a $100M contract while potentially keeping him in their rotation for 5 years and through the 2023 season.
The front office could then have their marketing department pitch Keuchel as their next Mark Buehrle which would be a pretty good analogy anyway considering he is a soft-tossing southpaw with excellent command, has won multiple Gold Glove Awards and wears a World Series ring. Keuchel has also been a very successful starting pitcher in a home park in Houston that is at least as hitter and HR friendly as the one Buehrle toiled in as a fan favorite on the South Side of Chicago for 12 years. All this is a direct result of their ability to command their arsenal while achieving soft contact and a lot of ground balls from opposing hitters. Keuchel has also accomplished something that Buehrle and even Sale have yet to do…win a Cy Young Award.
Another solid point in the White Sox adding Keuchel would be the lack of elite left-handed starting pitching prospects in their minor league system. The only high ceiling southpaw they currently have is former first round draft pick Carlos Rodon who is now pegged to be their opening day starter in Kansas City later this month. The problem with Rodon has been his inconsistency which can mostly be attributed to shoulder issues. Keuchel also has had some injury problems but they haven’t always involved his throwing arm. Despite this concern, Keuchel has still managed to average 29 starts and 190 IP’s in his last 5 seasons including 34 and 204.2 last season. Rodon hasn’t approached those numbers in his 4 year White Sox career.
Another factor for signing Keuchel is that Rodon only has three more seasons of arbitration control before hitting free agency following the 2021 season. Considering that he is also a Scott Boras client, that figures to transpire with little chance of an extension. Should Rodon finally manage to approach his enormous potential over those remaining 3 year he will have also priced himself out of any chance the White Sox could retain him, both with their reluctance to hand out huge years and dollars for FA’s (particularly pitchers) but also because of JR’s long running feud with Boras which was probably yet another reason they ultimately passed on Bryce Harper this offseason.
Most White Sox fans would have preferred either Manny Machado or Harper to be on their opening day roster and part of the team for the next decade. Many, including yours truly would then have wanted the front office to supplement that big splash with the addition of Keuchel. It might have made more sense to pursue Keuchel had the latter scenario unfolded but there are still ample reasons for the White Sox to pursue a potential “Blue Light” special in Keuchel before opening day.
Simple,He’s Not signed because he wasn’t as effective the last couple of years according to my two eyes
Both he and Kimbrel aren’t without some flags. Dallas gave up a lot of hits and his K’s plummeted. Guys are making more contact. Think there’s the reason teams are reluctant to gamble on a 4-5 year deal unless he lowers his asking price. I think he can get 3-48/50 but if he wants a longer deal he’s got to lower his asking price a bit. The Corbin, Arrieta and Darvish offers aren’t coming pal.
I’m still hoping Sterns can work his magic one more time and sign Dallas to a 3yrs/$56MM deal to come to Milwaukee.
that sounds pretty reasonable but you have concerns about a high ground ball pitcher with Shaw and Moose at third and second?
No, because the Brewers implement shifts more than any other team in the league besides advanced metrics show Shaw is actually an above average defender at 3B
Difficult to feel sorry for him, he had a guaranteed contract offer at the end of the season. Sure it was only for a year but at the QO rate. Not bad for a years work.
Ego got him
I believe the Astros offed him 90/5 in 2016
Oh well
Absolutely!!! Greed has sunk these 2 pitchers for 2019.
Scott B strikes again.
He is no longer a miracle worker.
several players must regret listening to him.
HA HA HA
Unfortunately players and their agents often don’t want to acknowledge the analytics and stats surrounding the player. But team management does and they often see big risks whereas players simply see the dollar signs. $$$$. At times, many players even develop a sense of entitlement. Kuechel has real talent for sure. But overall loss of velocity and significant nagging injuries are not necessarily someone you want give big money and term to. Especially when they have already hit 31. The era is already here where players over the age of 30 will increasingly have difficulty to get long term deals. Kuechel would be a good fit in Milwaukee or Atlanta.
You can point to injuries as a reason Dallas does not deserve the pay day he thinks he does but you can’t point to velocity. It is not his care talent. He has never relied on the velocity. further more the drop over time is far less than many power pitchers experience going into the their age 29-32 campaigns.
Keuchel is a lot like Jamie Moyer, who used his change like a fastball. and when he did finally throw that mid to upper 80s “heater” he often blew batters away because they were sitting on the change up. He had MLB success and plenty of Ks for more than a decade. Velocity should have nothing to do with this cintract.
Wish it. Want it. Do it.
What you may see out of the next CBA is a shorter duration of control for teams based on the contract situation once guys get over 30 being what it is. That or lift the limitations on PEDs and let these guys play at high levels until their 40 and get paid as such.
I fully expect the loss of 1 pre-arbitration year and 1 arbitration year in the next CBA, but it’s going to get awfully close to a strike if a strike doesn’t happen. In addition, I think there will be a “Savings tax” for teams who don’t spend more than a certain amount. Maybe $100M as the floor without a revenue sharing reduction.
No rules can stop market forces. You are getting market adjustments.
“It’s not a stretch to suggest that virtually any team in baseball would be improved by swapping out Keuchel for its current weakest starter”
There is the problem. It isn’t that Keuchel is without value, it is that he profiles at best as mid-rotation, but he’s seeking to be paid like a #1 or #2. Of course, he would improve any team if he replaced the weakest starter, but that pitcher might be making around $1M, maybe even pre-arb wages. Substituting a $20M salary makes no sense to any team with a budget.
Exactly. When a player and agent refuse to acknowledge the analytics, it’s simply greed and entitlement.
Cubs should give him an offer. 2/22. Mutual option for a 3rd year. Chatwood will not be a 5th or even a spot starter..
Lester
Hamels
Hendricks
Keuchel
Quintana
That’s a solid starting rotation. Hamels is likely done after this season. Unless he has a cy young like year. Then they might try to re-sign for 2020
Wish the Pirates would make this dude an offer. Maybe two or three years. Two with a 3rd option. Taillon, Archer, Keuchel, Williams, Musgrove. I’m certainly a fan of that rotation. God knows Bob can afford it while starting with a $70M payroll this year. It’s a simple little move that could make the Bucs a pretty damn good pitching staff. Especially if that bullpen holds the way it did last year.
Now that I see there isn’t much of a market for him, maybe Pittsburgh could make an offer. 4 years at $60M with incentives to get him near the $20M AAV he’s looking for. Incentives like $1M at each: 20 games, 25, games, and 30 games. $1M to be Top 5 in NL Cy Young voting, and another $1M for all-star selection. No injury history to suggest he couldn’t get at least $10M of those incentives.
I’m glad Brain Jordan agrees with me that the braves rotation is not convincing.
The Chicago Cubs should also sign Dallas Keuchel this season as well!