10:30pm: The Padres are currently terming Nix’s injury a “low-grade UCL sprain,” per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (Twitter link). The current plan is six to eight weeks of rest before he resumes a throwing program, though the second opinion he receives from Dr. ElAttrache will impact the ultimate course of action.
7:40pm: Padres right-hander Jacob Nix has a “small” tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. He’ll be evaluated by Dr. Neal ElAttrache before determining whether to undergo surgery. Depending on the extent of the tear, Nix could opt for a non-surgical route — platelet-rich plasma and stem cell injections are sometimes prescribed for UCL tears — though the mention of any degree of UCL tear immediately brings Tommy John surgery to mind.
At the very least, Nix’s injury takes him out of consideration for a rotation spot at any point in the early portion of the 2019 season. He’s one of numerous young Padres arms viewed as potential long-term options in the rotation, a rough 2018 MLB debut notwithstanding. Last season, Nix reached the Majors at the age of 22 but was tattooed for a 7.02 ERA in 42 1/3 innings — a marked departure from the 2.05 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 he logged in 52 2/3 innings of Double-A ball.
Even with Nix sidelined indefinitely, the Padres have a promising group of young arms on which to build. Joey Lucchesi established himself as a viable MLB starter last season, while prospect Chris Paddack has turned heads with a brilliant spring to date (to say nothing of his top 100 prospect billing and excellent minor league numbers in 2018). Lefties Matt Strahm, Eric Lauer and Logan Allen could start games for San Diego early in the season, as could Robbie Erlin — the de facto “elder statesman” of the group (though he’s just 28 years of age himself). Beyond that grouping is another wave of pitching talent featuring names like Cal Quantrill, Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon and MacKenzie Gore, giving the Friars a wealth of pitching depth that few organizations can match.
Again, going wild about who the Padres have like they’re 100% going to pan out instantly with no issue.
Nix wasn’t one of the guys they were “going wild about.” If this happens to Gore, Patiño or Morejon you might have a case.
Patino wasn’t as highly rated as nix until last season when he blew up. This goes to show what we already know…. a prospect is nothing but a MAYBE. Anderson Espinoza anyone? Nix was very highly thought of and ranked in the Padres system as of last year. Look up nix ranking vs Patino ranking going into the season. Point being, things change quick. Remember when Quantrill was our #3 prospect??? They are prospects. Not pros. Plain and simple. It’s projections and crossing fingers. Not projections and calling out division titles
Nix was never even close to being a top 100 prospect. Most outlets I read said he was a #4 starter.
There was no before for Patino. He was 18 last year and 2018 was his first full year in the US. As soon as he hit the US full time he skyrocketed up the charts.
There was no before for Patino? Hold on. Just making sure I got that right. So he wasn’t on the Padres prospect list before last season?? Or are you just moving around certain details to fit your narrative. Because FYI, he was on the prospect list. Just like Mackenzie Gore was on the prospect list immediately after being drafted, regardless of him playing a game on the system or not.
Come on…. don’t make terrible arguments just to fit your point. Patino was a prospect. Period. Simply wasn’t as highly rated until his breakout performance last year. There isn’t any debating that.
That’s not the point. You said nix was NEVER up there like Patino is. But the fact is, nix was ranked MUCH higher than Patino prior to Patinos last season. I don’t know how people are arguing this. This is a simple fact. This is exactly why people say Padres fans believe their prospects will all work out….. because of illogical thinking like this. It’s simple: until last year nix was ranked MUCH higher than Patino. Then Patino had a big year and made a huge leap. That’s just the facts. Guess what could happen next year? Patino could go Cal Quantrill On is and drop completely out of the top 100. Or was Quantrill not a highly rated prospect ever also?? Come on folks….. from a Padres fan, don’t be those homers. Prospects….. are prospects.
Nix may have been ranked higher than Patiño this time last year but at no point in time was he regarded as a potential ace or even a potential sub-ace. That’s all I’m saying. Patiño is currently ranked #6 in a very loaded Padres farm system. Highest Nix ever ranked was #10 at the end of 2015 and the farm was much weaker back then.
Nix does intrigue me and he was a guy I wanted to get an extended look at this year, but no one was ever “Going wild about him.”
But Nix was ranked about 14-15 last season in our #1 rated farm system, with Patino in it. And where was Patino ranked then?? That’s my point. It takes one season. That’s how quickly things change with prospects. I’m not saying Patino doesn’t have Higher upside than Nix, but that’s a different discussion. Agree to disagree I guess. I just think saying pitcher x,y,z was never as highly thought of as Patino is a little misleading, as before this last season….. several pitchers were more highly thought of than Patino. One season can change a lot.
Patino was signed at 16 and didn’t play in organized ball at all in 2016. He started the next year in the DR.
To start 2017 he was on no lists. None. Not MLB, not Baseball Prospectus, not Baseball America, not Minor League ball. Not even top 50 lists for the Padres organization. None.
m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=sd You can look up the rest. He isn’t listed.
Why? No one had seen him pitch. A few international scouts had seen him in the DR, but none of the lists you read had any idea who he was. There was no before for Patino.
Then he came to the US towards the end of 2017 and immediately began moving up the charts as soon as US based scouting services were able to see him throw. “… a 17 year old that was throwing 93-98 with pinpoint control. He had grown 2 inches and put on 30 lbs since the Padres signed him and his FB jumped up 6-8 mph.”
At the start of the 2018 season a lot of people were talking about him as a rising player and he was on many of the lists of Padres prospects after just 8 starts in 2017 in the US.
m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=sd
By midseason last year he was already higher than Nix in all the mid-season reports. He was regularly hitting 100 mph and was still maintaining good control.
Patino is a better prospect. Has been since he came to the US. Threw harder at 17 than Nix ever has. Has better control than Nix ever has. That the scouting services you read had never heard of him is typical. They are not in the DR. But if you had been in camp last spring and had seen both throw you would not question who was the better prospect. It was that obvious. Nix has a ceiling of a #4 starter. Every scouting service you read has said as much. Patino has a ceiling of Pedro Martinez.
So to answer your question, NO, he wasn’t on any prospect lists before 2018.
YOU’RE MISSING THE POINT! My point isn’t that Nix was never ranked above Patiño, it’s that at no point was he ever a top prospect. No one ever said he was going to be an ace. If this rebuild goes as hoped there won’t even be space for him in the rotation. Patiño and Gore will be 1A and 1B in 3 years, best case scenario.
No we won’t agree to disagree because that implies that neither side is necessarily right or wrong. I’m right. No one was ever “going wild” about Jacob Nix like they are about Gore, Patiño, Paddack and Morejon. If you reply again, address my argument, not one that you made up in your own head.
It’s honestly semantics. Yes there was a time where technically, Nix was more highly thought of, but what I think he was trying to say is that Nix at any point in his career was never as highly thought of as Patino is now. I do agree that anything can change In a season, Quantril has fallen down the prospect rankings. I never was that high on Quantril my self, I always thought he shouldn’t have been a top 10 pick. In regards to prospects working out, yes a majority of them don’t come close to there projected production but if you have enough of them, odds are some will. Some of us Padre fans I will admit have gotten a little unrealistic with there projections but to be fair, every year sense baseball America started ranking farm systems, every team that ranked number 1 made the playoffs with in a year or two of them being ranked number 1, a decent amount made serious playoff runs and some of them even won the world series (I.e Redsox, Cubs, Astros). Having said that, no sober minded Padre fan should think that we have a real chance at winning the division this year. The only way the Padres are going to the playoffs is if they qualify for a wild card round. 2020 is when things should really start getting interesting.
Smartest post on this topic yet. Lists are just lists … educated guesses based on a lot of things (projection, age, etc.) They’re mainly for fan interest.
That said, the people who put together theses lists are thorough with their research. The guys at Fangraphs even submit their own findings to each team before publishing, asking the various scouts if they have guys too high, too low, etc. They are pretty darned good at what they do with the caveat that there are so many variables involved. In other words, they know they are not and never will be perfect.
Bottom line: prospects are just prospects, but the more you have the better your chances of success.
That isn’t good news.
Real sad for Nix by the time he’s healed up the big prospects will likely be ready and the likes of Lauer, Lucchesi, and strahm May have already established themselves.
It’s the bulk of prospects that is important, because TINSTAAP. Build a system with ten pitching prospects and at least a few of them are bound to pan out.
No one is saying there’s not going to be any issues with these prospects. What there saying is that it isn’t the end of the world that Nix got hurt because there is a plethora of other, even more talented Pitchers with much higher ceilings close to the majors. so even if he doesn’t come back, we have enough top rated pitching prospects that even if only half pan out, it won’t matter much. every year Sense baseball America started ranking Farm systems, every team that ranked number 1 made the playoffs with in two years, and at least 1/3 made the world series. So yes, prospects don’t always pan out, but it’s been proven that if u have enough top prospects, then it will pay dividends. Padre fans are just excited because now the Padres have an ownership group that is actually serious about winning and investing the kind money it takes to do so. All the other owners never adequately invested in the team and to be honest, weren’t as concerned about winning as they were making money. The funny thing is, the successful organizations understand that you can win and make money. Now we finally have a GM and owner who understand what it’s going to take for us to get to where we want to be. So yes some of us Padre fans might be jumping the gun a little but there not wrong, there just at times unrealistic with there expectations of when we should be contending. We have more top 100 prospects than any team before so forgive us for being optimistic. Just ask the Cubs,Astros,Red Sox how it worked out for them.
Pitchers are brittle good thing Padres have ton of prospects
Gosh darn it to heck.
Just get the surgery and get it over with…
I couldn’t agree more. Glass 1/2 full, maybe Nix comes back throwing a little harder like some TJS guys do.
I hope that he doesn’t go down the same road the Padres and Espinoza did a couple of years ago. They waited around after an elbow when they should have just gone ahead and gotten the TJS out of the way. Now Espinoza hasn’t pitched in two years, but is apparently coming around.
I was thinking of Garrett Richards. He opted for PRP treatment, wasn’t as good when he came back from that, kept going back on the DL with elbow trouble and then ultimately got TJS anyway.
sounds like a good time for Paddack
Remember I wanted to trade Sonny Gray for this guy? You all said it was an overpay lol. Before this injury, Nix was a top-15 prospect, prob just out top-100. UCL tear isn’t end of world. I’ll be rooting for this guy!
Spankees got a bag of chips and a used jock strap for Gray. They’ll be wishing they had him back soon with their suspect starting pitching.
“sPaNkEeS” How original, grow up.
Well, Nix any plans the Padres has on using him this season…
Score!
Well played
Aiken, Nix and Marshall vs Alex Bregman. Hmm. I would take Bregman. Wish Nix a quick recovery though.
A lot of non-Padres fans (and maybe a few bitter ones) love to create posts about how prospects NEVER pan out and how the Padres future is one predestined garbage heap full of mediocrity and failure. I think maybe some people are just a little jealous of hearing how amazing the Padres farm system is.
Yea jealous of 3 playoff series wins in 50 years
No, jealous of our current farm system. Every year sense Baseball America started ranking Farm systems, every team that ranked first went to the playoffs with in a year or two and a decent amount of the teams went to the World Series and 3 won it. So yes, we have had a horrible track record but this isn’t the Padres of yesteryear that wouldn’t/couldn’t resign Adrian Gonzales or ever invest significantly into the international market. Simply put, this Franchise through there actions(signing Machado, Hosmer to record contracts and a team record spending spree on international players ), are trying to prove to us and the rest of the league that there not just here to sell hot dogs and beer, there here to win and win soon.
The Cooler Adrian never won anything so actually good they didn’t sign him. Teams aren’t jealous of Padres they are worried about winning
You can be worried about winning and be envious of another teams farm system. And Gonzales was a beast when he was with San Diego but that’s not the point. They didn’t extend him because they couldn’t afford to not because they didn’t want to. At least with the new owners, the Padres actually have the bankroll to invest money into the team on a level no other ownership was either capable or willing to
Spending 550 mil on Myers, Hosmer, and Machado is willing to invest but is it smart we don’t know why yet. The early returns on Myers AB’s and Hosmer sketchy so far
Nix 1st start at Petco was so overhyped
Wait 6-8 weeks, then have Tommy John? Have you ever heard of a player not having surgery after a diagnosis like this? Either have I. Its just a matter of time.
There have been a few, and I think all pitchers should exhaust every option before undergoing the knife. Surgery is scary stuff. And TJS isn’t always successful.
The injections and waiting is so new. I don’t remember a guy getting them and actually avoiding the surgery. Elbows aren’t a complicated joint, up and down lever. Shoulders and backs are surgeries to avoid
Tanaka
For every Tanaka there are about a dozen Garrett Richards’
I don’t disagree with that. I was just listing Tanaka because (so far) it’s been a huge success for him.
Tyler Thornburg, Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Nola have all had PRP injections and avoided surgery.
Ah, so they are going to go the Anderson Espinoza route with him. And because he’s on the 40-man roster he gains Major League service time while sitting on the DL.
Cya in 2021 Jakey Boy!
Wonder if Nix is a candidate for the UCL repair sugery rather than UCL replacement? He would be able to try rehab for a couple months, have the UCL repair surgery and still be ready for Spring Training next year. With either surgical repair method, he’s out the rest of the year, though. With TJ, he’ll probably miss next year as well.
Here we go…. the classic “rehab it” for months, only to then realize he needs surgery after he resumes throwing, therefore wasting even more time. See: Anderson Espinoza (amongst others)