Free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel hasn’t pitched in a major league game since last October and didn’t participate in spring training. As a result, there’s plenty of concern over how fast Keuchel will be ready to join a team when he ends his months-long stay on the open market and signs. But clubs shouldn’t worry about Keuchel’s preparedness, according to agent Scott Boras, who told Jon Morosi of MLB.com on Thursday that his client could be good to pitch within approximately a week of signing.
Keuchel has been throwing a 95- to 104-pitch sim game every five days to stay in shape, Boras said. We’ve heard that before (links here), but the potential one-week time frame is a new development. However, it’s likely worth taking with a grain of salt. For one, it’s not unusual for Boras to publicly talk up a client. Beyond that, it would be reasonable for Keuchel’s next employer to prefer for the 31-year-old to embark on a short minor league tuneup. Doing so would give Keuchel an opportunity to pitch in a real game (or games) before he potentially impacts a major league pennant race.
Keuchel has garnered plenty of big-game experience, including with the World Series-winning Astros in 2017, and carries a tremendous regular-season track record going back to his 2014 breakout. Nevertheless, the 2015 AL Cy Young winner hasn’t been able to find a team since free agency opened last Oct. 29. Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is in the same boat, but it’s one that figures to finally reach shore soon.
After midnight on June 2, the day before the draft begins, teams will be able to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel without having to pay anything other than money. Clubs would have to surrender draft compensation before then, which has helped lead to this impasse between MLB and the two high-profile free agents.
Dallas takes 1yr/17m and returns to Houston
17 mil on 1 year? Yeah right lol. If it’s one year it’ll be half that. Which is basically prorated amount.
I think you’ll be surprised. It was the length scaring teams away.
I bet he could still get something like the 2/30m that Charlie Morton got. They’re pretty similar in value.
I think his point is that the deal for Kuechel will be roughly 1/8.5m since its halfway through the year. If he received a full 1/17m now that would be like getting 1/34 to start the season.
It will be announced as 1/17mm because that’s the value over the course of a full year. But he’ll still receive only roughly 8.5mm
The main problem I have with that guess, is Houston could have already done that without losing a draft pick at any point. I think their interest is there, but not at his price. I think he’ll do a prorated deal for one year, but elsewhere.
That would make no sense. Houston was the 1 team that could have signed him without giving up draft compensation. If they wanted him they would have already signed him but now. Especially since it was clear a long time ago that no other team was going to sign him early enough for Houston to receive the draft comp from them.
Yanks will get their ace
When Severino and Paxton are healthy Dallas is probably their #3. Maybe #4 if German continues to surprise.
Keuchel is not an ace. He is a 3 at best.
You really think there are 60-89 starters in baseball better than Keuchel?
Do you really think there are 60 aces in baseball?
….#3 starter x 30 teams. 90 other pitchers.
So really, the math should be as stated previously 60-89 better pitchers. (2 • 30 = 60)
Not every team has the same level of production. Marco Gonzalez, the Mariners “ace”, he’s a 4th or 5th starter on any contending team.
Challenge you to name a legit 20
Okay and if you put the 5 best starters in the game on the same team, then one would still a #5 starter. But we aren’t playing fantasy baseball and pitchers are on the team they are on until they aren’t anymore.
There are 30 current #1 starters or aces in baseball. There are 30 current #2 starters in baseball. And so on. But all of is absolutely arbitrary anyway. Labels can change from season to season and sometimes several times throughout the season. If Gonzalez is traded to the Astros or Red Sox, then he would no longer be an ace, but for now he is one.
Really all it comes down to is a person’s definition of the word “ace.” I define it as the #1 starter on a team. You seem to define it as a certain chunk of the Bell curve when putting all starters together. I’m not going to call myself right or you wrong. It’s just a difference in viewpoints.
Then he’s not an “ace”. Not every team has an ace. Each team has their “best” pitcher, but that doesn’t make them an ace. To me, an ace is a guy that could be #1 or #1a on any team.
Just because someone is a team’s number 1 starter, that doesn’t make him an ace. With Keuchel, his stuff fits the mold of a mid rotation starter no matter where he is inserted in the rotation. It’s really not that difficult to grasp.
I see what your saying personally. I’m not sure how much it holds water though. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling were both aces on the Diamondbacks. They even won World Series co- MVP’s together. Using your logic, Schilling was never an ace with Arizona because he was always the #2 behind Unit. Any logic that refers to one of the two best pitchers in baseball as not being an ace has to be considered inherently flawed. An ace is not a #1. An ace is a stopper. A guy that can take the mound during the midst of a losing streak and be expected to start a winning streak time and time again. I think you are confusing the term ace with the term #1 starting pitcher. Every team has a #1 starting pitcher. A lot of teams don’t have an ace. Some teams have three. It also would make no sense in the new “opener” era. Last year Tampa Bay had most of their games started by Sergio Romo. Does that make him their ace? What about the guys that came in relief of him in the 2nd inning? Are they immediately disqualified for not being starters regardless of their performance and innings pitched totals?
He would be an ace on the brewers rotation
Completely unrelated, but am I the only one still thinking about what the heck was Dayton Moore thinking in 2017 for not completely unloading the Royals roster
Nope but people will tell you they were within wild card range at the deadline.
Only Kansas city fans thought so lol
It’s easy to fault in hindsight, but after so many consecutive years of losing for the franchise, I can’t really blame them for trying for one more year before blowing it all up.
And when you think about it, the position player trade market that year was extremely soft. JD Martinez went for a very weak package and he was a better chip than anything the Royals had. Yeah they could have probably gotten a handful of B/C prospects for Cain, Hosmer, and Moose, but I’d bet most fans preferred feeling like they had one more chance that year.
Boras and keuchel are going to be disappointed. The draft pick compensation dropping off is not going to suddenly increase offers to what they were asking in the offseason. His contract value will increase but not by that much.
Agreed. He was getting generous two year offers, but decided to go big or go home. A one year deal at a prorated deal is a very sobering reminder on the perils of miscalculating free agency.
Collusion will be proven again in baseball. A judge ruled there was enough evidence for collusion against Barry Bonds. He’d hit 40+ homers with a good batting average and no one was interested. Save me the “baggage” B’s. MLB has colluded before and is doing it again.
there is no collusion here. this is a much different situation.
Just because 30 GMs aren’t dumb enough to over pay for a player? That’s not collusion. It’s smart.
Whether you care to admit it or not, Bonds had HUGE baggage, and signing him at the time would have been a MASSIVE PR hit for somebody. Without even discussing whether that’s right or wrong, there’s nothing about Keuchel to raise any kind of similar flag. His unsigned state is a simple result of asking for WAY more time and money than anybody was willing to part with… on top of losing a draft pick.
Correct me if I’m wrong because I haven’t checked the stats recently, but in Bonds last year with the Giants, didn’t he hit way less than 40 homers with a batting average that wasn’t really even that close to .300?
The Qualifying Offer rule in MLB is just awful and needs to go away. I believe all professional athletes are overpaid BUT they all have the right to work and shouldn’t have draft pick penalties attached to them just for signing with another team. I have no idea how the MLBPA ever agreed to this in the first place!
There is a fast and easy way to fix this; follow the NFL’s free agency model. Assign pending MLB free agents to certain classifications (Type A, Type B, Type C, etc.). Once the season starts, if a team has lost more Type A players to the free agent market than they have signed from the free agent market, they would earn a compensatory draft pick. If a team signs more FA’s than they lost then they would not receive any extra picks; nor would they be penalized for doing so. MLB would obviously have to figure out which rounds to give compensatory picks between for each FA Class Type and have a maximum number of compensatory picks a team can accrue each year to prevent teams from letting every FA walk, but this would not only fix the current rejected Qualifying Offer penalty, it would also allow lower budget teams to recoup some potential future assets (via draft picks and increased signing pool money) when their best FA players decide to leave for another team and a bigger pay day.
Both Kimbrel & Keuchel are just the latest examples of how bad this rule truly is and 9 times out of 10, only the player ends up being penalized (forced to sit out) and not the team that eventually signs them. Wake up MLB and do the right thing here! It would actually bring more attention to the draft as well!
MLB literally had the system you just described 6 years ago.
Not quite, Dorothy talks about a system where teams aren’t penalized unlike the old system where teams lost picks for signing free agents
The QO protects small market teams from losing their best players to FA and getting little to nothing in return. A lot of the blame for Kimrel and Keuchel not being signed yet can be directed towards the two of them and their agents. Kimbrel wanted way more money than any RP could reasonably expect so teams looked elsewhere. Keuchel could have just taken the QO this year, pitched for a WS contender then hit the market again next year without the QO attached to him
Forced to sit out? That’s an interesting way to put it.
Unfortunately that wouldn’t work. The NFL is a salary cap system that limits how many free agents a team can sign. The compensation system you describe would not be a deterrent to a rich team signing a half dozen free agents. Additionally, teams covet draft picks in the NFL because those players play almost immediately. In MLB the first overall pick in the draft is still often 3 years away from significant MLB playing time. There is really no incentive not to sign tons of free agents (other than payroll ramifications) under your system. Finally, the players and agents need to learn that in the Information Age, even the stupidest teams are realizing that there is no reason to throw lots of dollars and multiple years for middle aged players anymore.
Players would hate the idea of it even though it would REALLY benefit 2nd and 3rd teir free agents, but they should go with a NFL style hard salary cap and basement system. Something like $200 Mill limit could work and wouldn’t effect most teams. Then they could go with something like a $150 mill basement. Guys like Keuchel and Kimbrel would never have problems signing then. Sure guys like Trout and Harper may take a little pay cut but the other players would make a lot more. It would prevent a small number of teams from repeatedly outbidding everyone for the best players while also ensuring teams like the Marlins can’t get away with spending a meager $15 mill a year in order to pull a profit regardless of poor fan attendance. The most important benefit is that it would drastically increase parity, which MLB severely needs. It would increase attendance throughout the league because every fan would feel like their team truly has a chance to win it almost every year. In the NFL several teams go from worst to first in their division every single year. It makes the sport way more exciting. I know the Machado’s and Stanton’s of the sport might take a slight pay cut, but they would still be amongst the highest paid athletes in the world, while all of their teammates would make way more than they currently do. Any idea why the MLBPA would be so against a salary cap as long as a generous basement is involved? Isn’t the union supposed to represent all MLB players and not just a handful of its top stars?
The MLBPA didn’t expect teams were going to covet draft picks so highly. The expectation was the players would still be signed because proven, high end, MLB level talent is extremely rare to come by on the free agent market.
Draft picks are always long shots. Even the highest draft picks rarely pan out with careers that are more than footnotes.
This is why the QO system was adjusted last year, and I believe it’s been adjusted well enough. The collusion isn’t really about over-valuing draft picks and the QO. The collusion arguments are about all teams pulling back significantly on contract lengths and total dollars all at the same time despite revenues increasing as the tanking model has been over-adopted by copy-cat GMs looking to build the next Houston Astros franchise. The collusion arguments were made dramatically stronger by the revelation of the Arbitration Player Beat Down Trophy and competition.
The next CBA could address the issue by instituting a luxury tax on payrolls below a certain amount. If the luxury tax hit at $200MM, make it hit below $80MM in the exact same way as well.
Is there such a thing as a type C free agent?
I would expect Keuchel to sign shortly after June 2nd hits for a pro-rated 1 year deal between $18M – $20M. He will NOT take a deal lower than the AAV of the Qualifying Offer (which I believe is $17.5M this year).
Kimbrel on the other hand appears to still have his heels dug in and wants a multi-year contract. I’m not sure he’s going to find that market waiting for him. If he decides to entertain a 1 year deal, he’ll have 4-5 offers on June 2nd to choose from. Who is going to give him 3-4 years and $60 – $70M when he hasn’t pitched all year and ended last season so shakily. He might have to swallow his pride and take a 1 year prove it deal before he gets his long term contract.
I wish them both the best as they were both screwed by the system.
wouldn’t a contending team (or future team with contending possibilities) with a decent stronghold on a core bunch be inclined to sign this? If Kirby Yates was killing it I at a low price I would of thought San Diego could of been a landing spot
Screwed by the system? Yikes
Asking for more than they’re worth isn’t getting screwed, it’s overplaying your hand.
Just more Boras BS. The man has lost his touch and now it is embarrassing. The greed of agents and players now.
how dare the players expect the value of their contracts to rise at the same rate as the value of the franchises built off their talent…
How dare teams not flock to get in a bidding war for a relief pitcher who announces that he wants to be paid more than any other in history, as a starting point.
That’s a far different discussion than the one on who’s actually being greedy these days.
If the teams don’t want to pay, fine. But don’t insult the players for asking for their share of the profits.
Every time Boras makes a public statement, he sounds more and more like a used car salesman trying to magnify the value of an old clunker car.
You don’t sell the steak, you sell the sizzle.
So much hate for boras and the only thing hes guilty of if doing his job. Common sense tells you dallas and kimbrel both would have signed if not for the loss of a draft pick. I agree with dorothy this QO rule is for the birds and is hurting baseball. they might have asked for to much money at the beginning of the season but after the struggle of everyones bullpens and injuries to everyones rotations, that supply and demand just went up for kimbrel. and dallas. Hope my braves get both for multi year deals
If Boras was actually “doing his job” then his client would be wearing an MLB jersey now.
“Common sense” would have meant looking at the cautionary tales of other players who rejected their QO’s, before asking for the moon at the negotiation table.
Both Keuchel and Kimbrel on “multi year deals to ATL?” Lolol.
your right dude just got his client one of the biggest deals in history. but didnt do his job.
Cautionary? with one of the best closers in history? not to mention its the draft pick attached to the QO
i guess we will see whos right when theres a bidding war come 12:01 am june 3rd!!
Of course Boras is just doing his job but his job isn’t necessary and he’s the equivalent of a lawyer taking on any client that will come to him no matter how ridiculous the case may be. Sports agents are leeches, plain and simple. The players do all the work while a no talent hack sits back and collects millions.
Keuchel has indicated Boras recommended signing before now. This is on Keuchel and the negotiating environment in MLB right now.
im willing to believe that Keuchel will be ready around when he’s signed. i know sim games arent actual game action, but they’re as close as you’re gonna get.
It will be interesting to see.. I think of Greg Holland from last season. He signed on March 31st but was likely getting his spring training work in at IMG (where the MLBPA had their free agent spring training). He was a mess out there until the end of the season.
I’m not sure that Boras actually helps makes the case with statements like this. Teams interested in his guy have already been scouting. If you are going to invest even the prorated value of a QO at this point, you are going to want to protect that investment by being sure he’s ready to ramp up. That’s probably a delay, followed by pitch counts his first few starts.
Put an escape clause in his contract: if Keuchel comes in and gets shelled, then the contract gets voided. It would never happen, especially with Boras, but I’d love to see his reaction if a team proposed it.
I have a suspicion that someone like the CWS are laying in the weeds until after the draft. They have the Machado money that wasn’t used and show progress this year the only two things that will stop them is if Keuchel wants 2019 contender only team or if the projections for Kopech and Rodon TJS recoveries are mid 2020.
Oh, well if his agent says so!
Of course he would say that.
I hope he signs with a team that has a no facial hair policy LOL!
I get the idea that the system should be changed, but let’s be honest. Both players could have accepted 1 year deals that guaranteed them each $17.9 Mill this season… And as long as draft compensation is involved they will have that option every season. If they are heck bent on getting multi-year contracts it is because they don’t have faith in their own ability to perform at a level that would warrant such a salary year in and year out. If they don’t have faith in themselves, why should any other team in MLB have that kind of faith in them.
Wanting long term stability in your life is not the same as not having faith in your. These guys have wives and kids to consider, and moving to a new city every other season is not fun for anybody.