“It’s not that far off,” said Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly last night after his latest rough outing. “It probably looks worse than what it really is.”
Kelly was referring to his own situation when he chatted with reporters (including Pedro Moura of The Athletic, Twitter link). But he probably could have spoken in similar terms of the Dodgers bullpen as a whole.
The results haven’t been great; I won’t argue with you there. But the Dodgers actually sit in the middle of the pack as a unit by measure of both ERA and fielding independent pitching. There have been blown saves, but not a dramatic number in comparison to some other clubs.
In many respects, it’s not even worth thinking too hard about how this relief unit looks right now. The Dodgers are blitzing an otherwise mediocre division. At 45-21, the team is easily the class of the entire National League to this point. The relief corps hasn’t been bad enough to jeopardize a seemingly inevitable march to a division crown.
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman certainly isn’t blind to the issues that do exist, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register recently covered. But he’s also focused primarily on the end goal: “It’s about feeling like we’ve got four to five ’pen arms in October that we trust and can help us,” says Friedman. “That’s what you need.”
So, can the Dodgers get to that desired handful of trustworthy hurlers? (And maybe settle upon two or three nice complimentary specialists to fill out a postseason roster?) Beyond acknowledging the potential for outside additions, Friedman says he still believes in the players currently populating the major-league roster. He also cites “other guys that are knocking on the door for an audition at some point.”
Kenley Jansen remains the rock. He’s not what he was, but it’d be foolish to say he’s washed up when he’s carrying 12.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. Pedro Baez has his warts but keeps getting results; he’s through 28 1/3 innings this year with a 3.18 ERA. The numbers aren’t as promising this year as last for Dylan Floro, as he hasn’t continued to suppress home runs, but he’s still managing a 3.13 ERA in 23 frames.
That trio constitutes something of a core, but it’s not the most intimidating of late-inning bunches. And the rest of the arms come with yet more questions. Yimi Garcia and Scott Alexander are among the team’s most-used other hurlers. The former has been torched by the long ball and may be at risk if he can’t find a groove. The latter is exhibiting declining swinging-strike and groundball numbers, but remains at least an interesting change-of-pace arm.
Alexander is the sort of hurler that Friedman seems to be thinking of when he refers to having “enough diversified looks” in the current unit. But what is it that gives the veteran baseball exec confidence that it’s “more about augmenting than tearing down” when it comes to structuring his bullpen?
The sheer volume of possibilities is part of what inspires confidence. It starts with the current or future excess rotation pieces. Ross Stripling has seen a bit of a velo fall-off this year, and has been better in the rotation than the pen, but is an excellent swingman to have around. Lefty Julio Urias has boosted his velocity and swinging-strike rates are up in a relief role. (His future remains clouded by an ongoing domestic violence investigation, though he won’t face prosecution unless he fails to meet the conditions set by authorities.) Veteran Kenta Maeda has been a flexible piece for the Dodgers in years past and will be useful in some capacity come October.
There are multiple swing-and-miss guys amassed at Triple-A, including 40-man members JT Chargois (30 strikeouts in 24 innings) and Josh Sborz (34 strikeouts in 26 innings) as well as experienced former big leaguers Kevin Quackenbush (43 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and Justin Grimm (41 strikeouts in 26 innings). There are a host of other plausible arms bouncing around in the upper reaches of the Dodgers farm. In addition to several hurlers with 40-man spots who’ve already had some prior MLB opportunities, the Dodgers have some untested prospects nearing readiness. Tony Gonsolin, Mitchell White, and Dustin May are among them.
So did we leave anyone out? Oh, right, Kelly …
The Dodgers clearly targeted him over the offseason, drawn to his big velocity and promising peripherals. Kelly has boosted his strikeout rate to 11 per nine and run up his groundball rate to 55.4%, but he is coughing up 1.69 HR/9 on a 28.6% HR/FB rate. Opposing hitters carry a .377 BABIP and Kelly’s strand rate sits at just 56.9%. There’s cause to believe regression is coming, but he’s also being tuned up for a 49.2% hard-hit rate.
If Kelly can get things on track in the next several weeks, the Dodgers will have added confidence in their ability to trot out five strong arms late in the year. Regardless, the late-inning group looks in need of supplementation. But that’s not much of a concern for an organization that has so much talent on and around the MLB roster. Friedman will have plenty of options on the trade market. With a huge division lead providing breathing room, the veteran exec sees a path to getting the unit he desires when the time comes: “We’ll operate on dual tracks of doing everything we can to get our existing guys better while canvassing the market.”
Joe Kelly is a complete train wreck and the Dodgers need to get rid of him. With the combination of Friedman and Roberts, the bullpen will always be a huge liability. I can’t see the Dodgers winning it all until Friedman is either gone or miraculously realizes that the bullpen is more important than he believes it to be. That Kelly contract was stupid as soon as Friedman gave it to him, and it was obvious.
I’m grateful Uncle Leo’s namesake and his armchair expertise isn’t in the Dodgers FO.
LOL
You can’t see the Dodgers winning it all because of the GM? Winning the WS is somewhat of a crap shoot compared to slogging through 162 and making the playoffs. They have been a contender every year he’s been there. That’s all you can ask for. Still was a bad signing though.
Friedman has built a super rotation, lineup and farm system. But sure he sucks and has to go. His bullpen choices are bad but that is the only flaw he has. And this pen is so bad even he will have to see garbage diving wont fix it
From where do you get the confidence that Friedman will see the bullpen as a problem that can’t be fixed with more of his retreads and bandaids? We’ve both seen how he operates.
Based on how blatant of an issue it is. The only time the pen was remotely this bad was August of last year when Jansen was out but the 7/31 deadline had already passed. Every single close game this season its a nightmare to get to Jansen. He just has to see it. If not it would be blantent negligence to a team that is a solid setup man away from having no flaws
I appreciate your optimism but based on how Friedman has operated for the past four years I can’t share it. His teams have been a good bullpen away from getting to the top of the hill multiple times but I don’t see where he’s changed his philosophy on how to construct one.
Right. Division title every year Friedman’s been here, all while maintaining a top 6 farm system at that same time. It’s clear you know nothing about real baseball , please stick to video games.
Something something ERA is not an accurate way to measure pitching, so many other “better” stats to use.
Until it’s needed to explain the Dodgers aren’t really as bad as they look.
That’s … not what I did here. It’s about the variety and depth of the options and the fact that they have time and opportunity to utilize the trade market.
One of the main problems is that Friedman does not think investing in relief pitchers is important, and he is on record saying as much. Then he gives a guy like Kelly a contract for multiple years. When he does give a relief pitcher multiple years, it generally isn’t a good one. The Jansen deal is the only good one that comes to mind, but even then he had to take less than the highest offer. I have no faith in Friedman’s judgment when it comes to relief pitching.
Your comparative analysis lacks sample size. Your paraphrasing of Friedman seems inaccurate.
Indeed. Friedman and his staff actually do value relief pitching, they just haven’t valued giving multiple multi year pricey deals to relievers because historically they haven’t paid off for them or anyone. JK was one of the few multi year deals and although it seems like a waste of money now it wasn’t seen as all that expensive. And that was because they knew they still lacked a good enough set up man and had to do something. Instead it hasn’t worked out, at least yet, and an internal option like Baez has been better. Which kind of proves AF’s theory about relievers. They have made trades for relief before, like giving up middling prospects for Scott Alexander, who was pretty good for them before this year. They value flexibility which is why you see Urias used as he is. There’s zero evidence they don’t value relief pitching, just that they try to not overvalue or overpay for it. But Obviously they’re gonna have to do something this summer, via trade and I guarantee they will. Whether it ultimately works out who knows. Before the Friedman regime the dodgers often paid a lot for FA pitching and for a long stretch most of those external options failed. Instead I think they’d rather develop arms from within as much as possible. Where they’ve failed more is just that, developing enough good arms for relief. They’ve found good ones on scrap heap like floro or Chargois for cheap, but then those guys tend to turn back into pumpkins. So this year they drafted a few guys who can be fast tracked as relievers. Anyway… moves are coming, they know the pen isn’t championship caliber. Will be interesting to see what they do.
Exactly!
Well said!
Chargois would be really impressive if he wasn’t hurt 85% of the time.
The rest of us understand Jeff. We have comprehension skills…..
Dodger Bullpen Ranks
ERA (18)
SLG (13)
OPS (9)
BAA (6)
WHIP (7)
K/9 (23)
K/BB (23)
So, pick your poison and maybe you can argue the Dodgers’ bullpen isn’t quite as bad as it looks, but by looking at the entire picture it’s pretty hard to argue that it is better than mediocre at anything or better than really bad in other areas. So it should be easy to see why this bullpen is losing so many games. It surely isn’t the relief group you’d expect on a championship contender.
It looks a little weak, but in actuality, there’s potential for it to be good enough based on non-luck based stats and available minor league arms. I didn’t see where Jeff Todd said it was a playoff team strength or anything.
We could debate all day long over the semantics of “a little” vs. “a lot” weak and not get anywhere, but I think most of us would agree that this team is short a situational lefty and a reliable setup man. Get those two and the bullpen would be far more stable and effective. These aren’t very difficult commodities to find on the trade market. The only real question is whether Friedman sees it that way.
BTW, I’m not familiar with the concept of “non-luck stats.” All stats are expressions of probability (which by any other name is luck).
Why not send Kelly to AAA to work out his issues until he figures it out? The bullpen has 13 of the losses. The problem is the dodgers are so far up in the division that Friedman will take the “let them work it out approach “ to see if they can get back on track. Back on track??? And here lies the problem. These guys won’t get back on track because they just suck.
You can’t, he’s a 5+ year veteran and you need his approval.
Maybe he will say yes?
You need his consent. Another move would be to ¨place¨him on the IL and have him go through an extended rehab assignment.
I almost think it’s as simple as percentage of good outings vs. bad outings. Obviously, there are situations of differing importance, but if a guy is good a high percentage of the time, who cares about his ERA. One guy might get yanked in a closer game and left in in a blowout but had the same level of poor quality. Beyond percentage of good outings, you would look at the situations: inning and score. Also, look at game outcome and whether it was altered by performance. Then come up with some snappy name like FWOPPLEDIDDLYDO for the statistic. Because analytics are everything.
How about FLOPNOTFLOP?
This is the issue with giving a player a contract based off of one year success. Kelly was a huge part of the Sox playoff run last year, now hes trash.
It wasn’t a year, just 3 weeks and one big LAD fan mentioned his 2017 few days back.. Kelly goes on streaks where he is really, really good, then gets where he’s his own worst enemy and gets changeup and slider happy, then is forced to throw that straight FB which hitters can hit knowing it’s coming when he’s behind in the count, regardless if it’s 98+.
Kelly just can’t get it through his head permanently he’s his own worst enemy on the mound for long periods and forgets what makes him successful. he’s really smart, just over thinks is my 2c.
Sandy Leon, one of the better game caller’s couldn’t get his head straight, I don’t know who can for good, but someone needs to get thru to him to listen to his catcher instead of shaking them off.
True story and well said ^^^^^
So all he needs is a brain transplant? Whew, and here I thought his problem was something serious.
I was at that game last night. As soon as Dylan Floro was pitching to Trout I said low and away on that pitch and homerun it went. Joe Kelly is a mess
It’s embarrassing. It’s painful to watch. Denial is not just a river in Egypt. Wow.. But the real culprit is the arrogant Friedman. This team will implode in the playoffs because of Friedman’s persistent arrogance. He’s had years to fashion together a real pen and failed. Kelly was signed on the basis of a decent playoff performance last year?
It’s clear that the game plan is to keep running Kelly out there until he gets it together, but the results aren’t trending in the right direction. There’s a lot of hope within the organization he’ll find himself, but as we’ve seen time and time again, hope isn’t a strategy. Alexander is another one whose results have been so consistently shaky that Roberts is very limited to only certain situations where he’ll bring him in. I don’t know what you can do with these guys, but LAD is gonna need at least 2 more solid relievers before the post season. Otherwise all of this early season success will be for nothing.
Completely agree. Baez is perhaps the best option to bridge to Jansen and he’s quite inconsistent. None of their current options is to be trusted.
I always come by for statements from anonymous trolls about the arrogance of real folks like Andrew Friedman. Sorry, Guy, he’s got the job, and despite your know-nothing nonsense, he’s done a pretty good job.
Best team in baseball despite the crappy bullpen situation. Maybe you should get over yourself, Chief.
Yes, their line up is good enough to defeat regular season opponents, but playoffs a different animal You cannot argue with the results of the pen. Look at the numbers! That does not make those of us with critical thinking skills “trolls” as you put it. Your blind allegiance to all that is Friedman shows your ignorance.
Dodgers could have added Kimbrel but, he wanted to be labeled as “closer” and while Jansen hasn’t been the best, he’s still one of the best closers. Now, one can say that it was up to Jansen to decide on whether he cared more about his role as a closer or being World Series champion…
One couldn’t say it was up to Jansen to decide any of this. Nobody on this team is treated as if they are special. It might have been up to Kimbrel had the Dodgers made him an offer, but there was never any indication that the Dodgers expressed any interest in signing him. So one could say it was up to Friedman, and that would be completely accurate.
Don’t give the Dodger fan a Laker – like performance.
I’d like to see a Giles swap with the Dodgers. The Jays could probably eat Kelly’s money as well to make the return even better and they need arms.
The jays want to reload, why would they want to take on Kelly’s contract?
To increase the return. They’re probably not going to win next year anyways and if worst came to worst they could just release him when they are good. They’ve shown they’ll spend money to clear bad players out, I’d assume they’d do it again if it came to it.
And have Joe Kelly on the books the next two years followed by a $4-mil buyout? No thanks.
Kelly will be fine he was over worked by Red Sox in world series and went to new team with large new contract . Kelly is trying to show he is worth the contract. The season is a marathon and Dodgers are 10 Games up.
2017 the Dodgers had one of the best bullpens all year, but they gave it up in games 2 and 5 of the WS that year. Last year the Indians traded for Hand. He had an ERA of over 10.00 in the playoffs against the Astros. The playoffs are always a crapshoot. When the time comes, we will have Jansen, Baez, Urias, Maeda all available. Remember in postseason play they have day offs mixed in between some games, so our best guys should be available every game. Yes it would be nice to get another quality arm but at what expense? Verdugo, May, Gonsolin? I say no way.
How bout the Giants and Dodgers talk about a Smith, and Watson trade? Those two alone would secure your team a healthy shot at a championship. Just cost you some of the talent on the farm! (Cough cough) Verdugo! Lol
Verdugo isn’t “on the farm” though.
Don’t follow Dodgers, but how is that relevant? I was just saying it would cost some of that farm.
Because you mentioned only one player, who isn’t “on the farm?” Maybe that’s why the response was relevant.
Anyhow, the Dodgers wouldn’t be interested in both Smith and Watson. Smith is a rental and effectively so is Watson. You aren’t going to get top drawer longterm controllable talent for a rental reliever.
they won’t win the world series with that bullpen, that i can tell you. Take it to the bank. They need more than 1 upgrade in pitching staff to win it. Need to trade for someone like Matt Boyd and Shane greene. Those are 2 that come to mind that are on trade block.
Caleb Ferguson should definitely be considered in the bull pen discussion. Rough start to his season, but on his current rehab assignment to Oklahoma City has been outstanding. Ferguson pitch to his 2018 season would help to solidify the backend of the relief corps. Although still at double-A Tulsa and not on the 40 man roster, right-handers Jordan Sheffield and Marshall Kasowski are 24 years old, and pitching very well. Nonetheless, I believe the Dodgers will acquire a proven, late-inning arm, for the bull pen.
Was coming here to say this too
I would be shocked if they dont make an internal addition soon. They have too much faith into this current group to turn it around
in comparison, angels’ pen looked very good.
Jansen, Baez, Floro and Urias are very good. Stripling is pretty good too. They could just use one more solid arm to make them a top bullpen. It might even be from within. Alexander doesn’t get strike outs, but he could be effective. Ferguson is a very good pitcher. They don’t need to trade prospects for a rental reliever. They can wait and see how the next month goes.
They are not pretty good, Look at the numbers.
If you take away Joe Kelly and Brock Stewart stats out of the equation, the Dodger bullpen would have the 2nd lowest ERA in the National League. As it stands now, Neither one of these two will be anywhere near a high leverage situation in the playoffs. Bullpen is not as bad as we think.
The White Sox can use a left-handed hitting OF to balance out what looks to be a predominately right-handed batting future lineup. With Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert seemingly set in LF and CF come 2020 and beyond, RF would be the logical position to fill that need. The Dodgers have an abundance of lefty-hitting OF’s and Alex Verdugo would fit the recent m.o. of the White Sox pursuing high contact hitters. Their last two June drafts had them selecting the best two college contact college bats in 2B Nick Madrigal and 1B Andrew Vaughn. Each bat right-handed and Verdugo fits the same profile from the left side of the plate. He also possesses a cannon arm for RF.
The White Sox have a 30-year old veteran reliever in Alex Colome with another year of relatively cheap arbitration eligible control in 2020. Colome has been a lights-out closer for the White Sox this season and has excelled in that role along with being an elite setup man throughout his MLB career. This looks like a perfect match for a needy Dodgers bullpen looking to fortify their chances of winning a World Series title after missing out on that opportunity each of the last two October classics.
How is $10 million (my guess as to his 2020 salary based on his making $7.1 million this year) a “relatively cheap” contract? No chance Verdugo is traded just for Colome.
Colome’s contract is a bargain by today’s standards and for the results he has achieved as both a closer and top setup man. Perhaps using comps like Andrew Miller and Brad Hand might work here.
If Colome helps put the Dodgers over the hump and into the promised land of a World Series title he will be worth every penny. Just ask most Cubs fans whose team paid even more dearly for a rental closer in Aroldis Chapman. My trade proposal need not be a straight up deal. It could involve other pieces. I simply see a nice fit here for what both organizations need going forward. Perhaps the White Sox would even be willing to take back Joe Kelly in this deal to land their future RF, assist with any financial concerns the dodgers might have and help replace Colome in the back of their young pen. Kelly could setup with Kelvin Herrera assuming the closing duties in Chicago for the time being.
Colome would fit the Dodgers’ needs but his one more year of team control does not come close to adding up to four more years for Verdugo, also keeping in mind that Colome is a reliever and Verdugo is a position player.
Yet recent history suggests that top veteran relievers, even with limited contract control get traded frequently for top prospects or young MLB talent with ample team control. This happened with the Yankees trading Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs and Andrew Miller to the Indians in July of 2016. The Cubs rented Chapman and replaced him the following winter by dealing Jorge Soler to the Royals for one year of Wade Davis. Last summer the Padres dealt Brad Hand to the Indians for young catcher Francisco Mejía.
Recent history doesn’t necessarily suggest that. The top acquisition for the Yankees in the Chapman trade was obviously Torres, who at the time was 19 years old and playing in the low minors. He was a lottery ticket who paid off. Miller also isn’t a good comp because he had two more years remaining on his contract. Likewise I can see Colome getting a good return in low minors prospects, including someone from the top shelf. But not someone who is much less of a long shot in Verdugo.
See Jeff, that’s what I don’t like about FIP. Improvement to the mean coming? Kelly is 31, maybe he is in his decline phase? But that’s my bias and my problem. I will continue to love baseball and this website overall!
Improvement to the mean isn’t just dependant on FIP. Any stat has that…
True that, but we should ask ourselves, if Kelly somehow manages to improve enough to regress to his mean, how good is that really? In the regular season, not very.
For all of you wanting to trade a reliever from your favorite team for Verdugo let me help you not lose sleep. It’s not in any way going to happen. This management doesn’t make trades like that(good or bad).
I see the Dodger’s acquiring one arm via trade with probably Stripling going in return. They will add Kenta back come playoffs, get Ferguson back, and barring injury, they will be solid, but not lights out. Kelly is going no where. He is the key IMO to if this team wins it all or not..
Bottom Line: The Dodgers need bullpen help.
LA may not make a straight up trade involving involving Alex Verdugo for an elite pen arm. They may not even prefer Alex Colome from the White Sox. But if the Indians do indeed put southpaw Brad Hand on the market next month I’m guessing the first player the Tribe would want from the Dodgers is Verdugo. Even with Andrew Friedman’s past history, refusing to part with Verdugo for Hand would be foolish.
Sure they do, and Hand is obviously the kind of reliever the Dodgers can use, but a straight-up trade for Verdugo still looks to be unbalanced in Cleveland’s favor. In addition to a prorated $7M this year, Hand is owed $7.5M for next season and $10M in 2021 ($1M buyout). As good as he is, this is not a contract dripping with unrealized value. Four years of team control over a player who has already proven himself in the majors is the sweet spot for unrealized value. Also arguing against the Dodgers giving up Verdugo is the fact that he’s become an important piece of the team. Taking him out of the lineup even for Hand does not make the team better. No, the Dodgers need to trade from depth, not from the front line. They have quite a bit of depth, so that should not be an impediment to them getting the arms they need.
With a double digit division lead in place, there’s no reason why Roberts shouldn’t be throwing Joe Kelly out there in order to get his head right, fix his mechanics or what ever baseball cliche people want to use. The pen will always get the majority of the blame because it’s usually a reliever out there when the game ends… Perhaps the Dodgers could have added that elite established reliever this year to pair with Jansen, like Craig Kembrel but, both wanted to close. Some could say that the ball was in Jansen’s court whether to allow Kembrel to close games if it meant winning the World Series…
This is not a new thing. The Dodgers bridge relievers have been a train wreck for the last three seasons. And it has been a major reason why the Ds have failed in two successive World Series. All season long the FO plays “what me worry” and then the pen implodes when it matters. And enough about Dylan Floro’s numbers. His ERA is now three times higher than it was earlier in the season and he is allowing just about half of the runners he inherits to score. He isn’t any more of an “option” than Kelly at this point. If the Dodgers truly had “good” internal options, wouldn’t they have used them by now??
Exactly. Floro should be a middle-reliever used mainly against RHP.
Not true – Morrow was outstanding in the role in 2017. So good that he got closer money following the season. And he was a so called “dumpster deal on the cheap.”
Do any Dodgers fans trust Kenley Jansen with a one-run lead in a playoff game? I wouldn’t.
After that Angel fiasco, it´s apparent to me that Kelly needs to be sent down. It’s difficult to send down a player with
a contract because 1.) he needs to clear waivers (which his $25 million contract and lack of performance say it is almost a certainty) and 2.) he needs to voluntarily accept an assignment to triple A. But “faking” an injury, which has become the Dodger way in recent years, is far from a stretch. I was a big believer in his stuff and performance in October, but if you look at current video and match that with the postseason, his mechanics are so out of whach. He seems to hesitate in his delivery now and as a result is showing the ball slightly longer for a hitter to pick, and we all know a second is like a minute for a professional hitter. This leads me to believe he’s tipping pitches and it can be a quick mechanical fix, which I find it astonishing that the Dodger brass hasn’t noticed this. Maybe they have, and Kelly isn’t just buying this. In which case, this is more of a mental and emotional distress. Sending him on the 10-day IL to clear his
head for those 10 days, then put him in an extended rehab assignment in the minors is the perfect way to get Joe’s
head right, build his confidence, and prepare him for the battlefield that is the major leagues.
Whatever you may think about the Kelly signing, we can all agree that the bullpen needs major help, and probably another starting position player that can handle the postseason pressures ala David Freese (aka contact bat such as Anthony Rendon or Whit Merrifield). That Pollock signing, too early to tell, but that’s the one that I believe was a sunk cost. Call it the curse of wearing #11 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Will Smith and Jake Diekman would be much welcomed boosts. If we’re going even bigger, which we should, Felipe Vazquez and Brad Hand are musts. Shane Greene, Seth Lugo, Hansel Robles, or even Kirby Yates. Whatever. We just need at least two more bullpen pieces to solidify ourselves in October.
Add these pieces, get Joe Kelly right, get Corey back, and we will be the team to beat in the World Series. Or just move Kershaw to the bullpen for October!
It would be a lot easier to come up with a phantom injury for Kelly if the Dodgers had someone ready to call up to replace him in the bullpen. Unfortunately this is an area where the Dodgers are thin in the minors.