We’ll continue our evening trip around the summer starting pitching market in San Francisco, where top rental rotation piece Madison Bumgarner resides. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) updated the market for the burly southpaw, cataloging a variety of suitors.
The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are newly added entrants to the mix, joining the already reported Twins and Yankees. We’ve certainly seen many or all of these teams cited as possibilities — among others, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored a month back — but this is the clearest indication yet of the kind of competition that could be developing.
All that said, there are limits to Bumgarner’s appeal, as Rosenthal explores. We’ve hashed out many of the pluses and minuses of late; suffice to say that there are good reasons to think the long-time star still has some gas in the tank, but no real reason to believe he’s the stud he once was.
Beyond that, there are also some clear alternatives floating around who’ll also draw attention from contenders. On the rental side, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (latest rumors) has emerged as a younger, lower-salaried, and arguably higher-upside possibility. Teams that prefer future control could look to Marcus Stroman (latest rumors), Matt Boyd (latest rumors), and perhaps even Trevor Bauer (latest rumors).
Bumgarner’s no-trade rights could certainly play into the equation here, as he’ll have the ability to block deals to most of the interested teams. As Rosenthal originally reported a few months back, the savvy veteran put his eight-team list to full use by naming a host of clear contenders (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals).
As Rosenthal rightly notes today, there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. Beyond the obvious appeal of another shot at postseason glory after a few seasons away, the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.
The qualifying offer issue may not seem like a major factor for a player of Bumgarner’s stature, but the recent experience of Dallas Keuchel shows it’s still of real importance. Though he placed fourth on the latest free-agent power ranking from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, just edging Wheeler, Bumgarner still faces plenty of variability in his ultimate earning power.
Though Bumgarner left his last start with an elbow contusion, it seems he escaped a worrying injury. There’ll be plenty of time still in the run-up to the deadline for Bumgarner to show off his form to interested clubs, including those listed above.
I think he should go to the NON newsworthy team. It seems to me he prefers the laid bk fandom in San Fran.
Clearly you’ve never experienced SF fans.
Laid back?
I know my fair share of Giants fans (I live 80 miles north) and they’re both passionate and insanely obnoxious.
But ya, they do like their wine and cheese at the ballpark too.
Yes, clearly he knows nothing about Giant fans. They would cut your throat over an error or a strikeout. Worst damn fans I’ve ever seen.
Which giants fans you talking to?
Hold my beer
Lol PhilsPhan
Lol do you not recall the hype of his World Series heroics, as referenced in this piece? He’s thrived on the biggest stage, and San Fran, despite low-key, losing seasons of late, isn’t exactly known for being laid back. Honestly, I tend to mostly dismiss postseason heroics as repeatable trends, but, at the very least, Bumgarner has shown he’s not limited by a noisy atmosphere.
Giants Fans have to be the strangest Baseball fans in all baseball. Ok, the Giants play in Liberal heaven (SF). That said a good chunk of Giants Fans, especially the online crowd are Racist, Conservative, Rude, Nasty, Stubborn you call it. The other bunch are super liberal as you would expect. What happens when both meet? Chaos!!! LOL. If you been around Giants Fans social media you know exactly what I’m talking about.
Did you poll their political views at the ballpark? Child please….
Dude it’s San Francisco. You can’t find a more liberal city in a more liberal state
San Francisco is not as big as you think it is. They draw more from outside the city than from outside of it.
I would have agreed a few years ago. When they were winning championships every other year they were the bandwagon team for fair weather fans. I actually had a guy at work (who used the N word as a noun regularly) who told me “I used to like the Yankees but now they don’t win as much anymore. So, now I am a fan of the San Francisco Giants.” when he saw my Yankees hat one day. That guy disgusted me and his racist humor seemed to only get more vile as time went on.
Great fans that know baseball! How many other teams have losing records for the past three years and still pack the ballpark? We’ll exceed 3 million easily!
Jealous of the 3 rings mixed with stereotypes. Think nothing of it. Haters gon hate.
I kinda want to go to a Giants game in SF now lol
Look at all the divisions five of them are pretty much almost spoken for. One of only two teams make sense and that’s Cubs or Brewers.
Well that, size of division leads, doesn’t strictly determine his market.
Wrong. Pirates are only 2.5 back. Cards only 2 back.
Even the Reds are 3 back in the loss column. Absolutely foolish to think the central is down to one of two teams. Reds in particular have been playing better than everyone as of late. Took 3 of 4 from the Brewers, 2 of 3 from the Cubs, and swept the mighty Astros in interleague for good measure.
But yeah down to one of two teams. Sure it is…
Disclaimer: not a fan of any NL Central team
As if the divisional race is the only reason to get a pitcher. All these divisional winners are trying to beat each other in the playoffs
too.
But it is the only reason to pay big for a pitcher, unless you’ve already sealed the division.
Pirates make perfect sense. I doubt they go for MadBum because of the hefty asking price for a 3 month rental.
Hefty price becomes a realistic lower price if there are no knee jerk offers. Can see the Giants trading him to a non-big market club and then re-inking him ala Chapman and the Yanks after the season.
Five of the divisions spoken for? Are you mew to baseball? It;s the AS break. Right now I’d say only 1 division has a presumptive winner.
The Twins have a need, a strong farm and aren’t on his no-trade list. This seems to make too much sense especially with Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi are all right handers.
I agree, the twins could make life easier on the sf organization if they pursued Bum, and take Smith too, but for who is the biggest question.
Just for Bum or Smith you would be talking 2-3 players with Larnach or Kirilloff as the headliner. Both? dream on, or be prepared to lose 2 of Larnach, Kirilloff and Lewis.
My god, you wouldn’t get anyone even close to that. Not one, and I’m not s Twins fan. Jesus, you’re out of your mind.
And I read it Bum AND Smith. You won’t get one of those for both combined.
Yeah, no. The Twins probably take Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff, and Travis Larnach off the table. From what I’ve heard, it’ll likely be a package headlined by flamethrower Brusdar Graterol (plus someone else).
And Graterol + would be a solid get for 2 guys who will be FA’s at years end. Who you’d get 2 comp picks for.
I don’t even think they’d consider him… Graterol is one of those guys a bit farther away but with TOR upside
Likely not. I think Graterol would go for the Giles/Stroman package. They do have quite a few other high quality arms they could send for Smith and Bumgarner if that’s the duo they get. Though I think it makes more sense for them to get Giles and Stroman who are under control for an additional year.
The Twins could certainly use multiple arms in their pen and maybe if Watson or Dyson is included you do see a Balazovic or Graterol going the other way. I’d say the only way that happens if they miss on the Stroman/Giles package.
That’d obviously be based on how much of a shot Falvey and Levine think they have of winning a WS this year. It’d have to be pretty high to pay that price.
Yeah why would they do Stroman/Giles for Graterol then? Buy your RP elsewhere separately and pay with 45’s, that doesn’t increase how good the top prospect in the deal is. It would increase only the depth.
Wish he would go to the Cardinals!!
In exchange for?
Just to disappoint the Cards…..
You do no one on here is an actual GM. No one would logically tell you anything realistic even the posters are shocked when the truth bombs drop. Trades will be quick with only one deadline so it’s going to crazy with so many teams still in contention right now and only a few clear cut sellers.
*Know. And also, some people on here don’t even have brain cells. Good god.
I think he goes to the Twins in a package deal for tony Watson and Sam dyson
Watson and Dyson are already Giants
I’m sure he meant “with.”
Not that it’s ever going to happen…..
So you think the Twins are gonna get a package of Bum, Dyson and Watson? That will cost you Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. Wanna get realistic now?
No, it won’t, because that’s nonsense. You’re not getting one of those guys for them. It will deepen your return, but it won’t increase how top-heavy it is.
Not a Twins fan FWIW.
Hate the Twins guts but there is no way they give up any of their top-3 prospects. By all means, I hope they do but Bumgarner isn’t an ace and Dyson/Watson aren’t the types to be bringing back top-100 prospects in a deal, let alone three top-30 guys.
I think he is another Hamels or Verlander type, who finds that extra level with a contender. While Madbum is no longer elite, but I do think who ever acquired him will be happy they did.
I agree! Madbum is a competitor, he lives for competition. For the last couple years hes had to pitch his but off to try to get a win because of the team not giving him much runs to work with. Put him on a high caliber offensive team, pencil in him winning games for that team. I believe he will do what Verlander did when he went to Houston and left Detroit where it wasn’t a winning atmosphere. His stuff and velocity is there. Any team who does end up trading for him will not regret it..
Yes they will…..
And you know this how jorge78? Another hater! Probably never played ball in your life either huh?
No just soccer and hacky sack.
He doesn’t seem interested in going to a contender based on his no-trade list…
That is a way to get bonus money to be traded.
That’s only to gain contract leverage.
The no-trade list is to control which contender he gets traded to. So SFG can’t just trade him to the highest bidder.
Good points. I’d personally like to see him in Houston or the NL so the Astros don’t have to face him in October given his playoff track record!
The Yankees are the best fit for him to maximize what he has left. All the Yankees would need from him is six innings and then hand it to that bullpen.
Yeah, but the Yankees have nothing to trade for him.
Only Yankee fans think they have a decent farm. Its bottom 10 not top 10
Yanks farm depth is underrated but Yankee stadium is an awful fit to maximize his next contract, come on…
as a Yankees fan I hope they get just about any of the pitchers on the market instead of bumgarner, who I think is being overrated for his past performance
That’s OK, the Yankees have nothing to trade for him anyway.
Yup…..
Clint Frazier?
No. One guy the Giants don’t want. Can’t play OF in toughest OF in baseball? Nope. Many other teams would consider him as even value in return but not SF…
I don’t think he would waive his trade clause to join the likes of a yank! Who would want to play in front of a bunch of whiny fans who boo their own players, classless!
Cardinals!
Second that
I don’t get the hype for Wheeler. Has he done something that I missed because all I see is an average pitcher at best. He’s not a guy that can be trusted in a pennant race. Plus he’s a Met and brings the negative Met energy with him.
Exactly! And if he hits the AL it will hit back since he has no pitcher to strike out…..
Wheeler has pitched 1 full season, he’s too up and down. He’s average at best
Hes on the Mets… which means his 6-6 record translates to a 10-3 mark on any contending team… It’s like a dog year ratio..
With a era almost 5.00? I don’t think so buddy. He’s had some good run support in his favor this year. He should be 4-9
Nope, is having a bad season. Has been a below avg player for his career. He has a great ceiling… but he has never performed consistently at that level.
Wheeler is basically Bumgarner’s age. He is always injured. Is he even having a better season than Bum? Yet, people act like one is past their prime and the other is a stud, lol. I understand Bumgarner could be a headcase with his antics, but to say Wheeler is better in any way it’s slander and propaganda..
Age matters less than career innings, that said, Mad Bum probably has a bit more value right now.
Prob? All your comments pit Bum and the Giants in lesser light, lol. Of course he has more value. The whole innings vs Age argument is valid, but neither is going to be signed to a long term contract. It’s just for this season. Both are Free Agents at the end of the year. If you’re telling me you rather take Wheeler over Bumgarner right now, LOL.
No I’d take Bum. But honestly neither‘s recent performance really excites me, and I certainly wouldn’t pay a lot for either.
MadBum a headcase? That’s ridiculous. There is not one account of him creating any dissension in the clubhouse.
Because he intermittently is a shut-down pitcher and throws high heat. I say intermittently because one game he’ll dominate championship caliber line-ups. The next game he’ll get shelled by the Marlins.
The Giants/Twins match is interesting. Giants love toolsy prospects and Twins have those in abundance. It’s a good opportunity for san fran.
Yankees STAY AWAY
Agreed, I don’t think he would waive is trade clause for that team anyway
If Clint Frazier is so good u shouldn’t have any trouble landing Trevor Bauer. Go get Bauer.
First off, Cleveland is not taking Frazier back. Secondly, Bauer has another year of control and is way, way, way above the caliber of Mad Bum and Wheeler right now, and Frazier could probably be only the second piece in such a trade if it wasn’t the Yankees.
I mean if it wasn’t the Indians.
Twins would be a good team for the team. There isn’t protection and they have a good prospects so would be a win win.
Not happening
I’m just glad that folks here or “experts” like Todd don’t really have any say or for that matter really have a good understanding of his value to a lot of teams – including those that know he could be the difference in a WS title (Wheeler more upside??? Really???). SF gets top prospects or they simply make him a QA, end of story.
And they lose, because someone will offer him enough $ despite the QA. They’re unlikely to approach a top 75 guy.
The Giants are playing good ball right now. They have found some bats that produce and the bullpen is solid.
If the Gianta win 14 of their next 18 games, which takes them through Milwaukee and Colorado, not easy, but they will claim a wildcard position. I’m saying there’s a chance. But starting pitching needs to be better.
Mortgaging the future for “a chance” is a big part of how they ended up in the mess they are in. Regardless of how they are playing, or if they continue to play well after the break, they need to cash in their chips. This is a great chance to get guys to play with Ramos, Bart, Luciano, and whoever else is supposed to be part of the next good team.
I agree. If I had my way, they move Smith and still try and compete. Can’t QO a closer for $20M. But with Bum, worst case you get a 2nd and 5th Round pick and additional draft pool. So unless the offers are real, there is no need to trade him.
This team coulda been in it all year. We ignored our holes again and didn’t sign any ML outfielders. Imagine how this team looks had we signed Brantley? The quality of the team is there, but they cheap out on the corner OF every single season.
Brantley was the only person I was rooting for them to sign. He would have fit in perfect. People say he’s too old but signing him up a 3-4 yr deal would if been ideal and would have given time for Luciano/Ramos/canario to come up.
It take two to tango. You think Brantley would have taken the same mon ey to come here? He went to a better team where his offensive numbers wouldn’t suffer and pay less on taxes. He would have cost the Giants a good 10-20 million more and even then, I doubt he signs with us. He wants to play for a championship, not Gamer Babes Signs or Garlic Fries.
Who says the Giants didn’t try to sign Brantley? Maybe they did and he chose Houston instead.
These kind of posts annoy the hell out of me. They assume Brantley was there for the Giants and all they had to do was ask. As it is, the Astros took a chance on Brantley, given his injury history, and it paid off. 20/20 hindsight is great. And if SF had tried to sign Brantley and he spurned them for the Astros, what other ML out-fielders should the Giants have signed? It isn’t as easy as a lot of fans make it out to be.
You really think the Giants were motivated to sign Brantley? The way they’ve handled business since the new GM entered they have played it safe. So no, Giants didn’t try to sign Brantley.
Show us evidence to back up your speculation.
I look forward to Bumgarner shutting down the teams that don’t think he’s good anymore in October and ending their seasons!
Bum has been on lousy Giants teams the pst 2.5 seasons. He needs the fire to compete at his highest level. Let’s not forget his WS heroics may have been in 2014 but he still threw a CG shutout in the wildcard game against the Mets and Syndergaard in 2016.
He’s a stud in October and the biggest difference making SP on the market. End of story.
Yeah but team won’t pay for this “fire.” Of course not. And they shouldn’t.
*teams
I’m very much looking forward to that. Would be even better if it were the Giants ha
Zack Wheeler – ERA+ 96 for career – Wheeler isn’t even having a good year. Since 2013 he has pitched 2 full seasons. High ceiling, low floor, big injury risk, Never pitched in the postseason, never really pitched in many meaningful games. He will come the cheapest, so he makes sense for teams in a division race who don’t wanna go all-in.
Matthew Boyd – ERA+ 92 for career – has never pitched in a game that mattered and has only been an above avg player for the first half of this year. He is having a genuinely great season. Yes the control is there, but its arbitration years, so its not like he is gonna make $565,000. He will cost what he is worth, and in all likelihood will regress back to his mean (Jose Quintana anybody). Comes from a losing atmosphere and is a prime candidate for a bad 2nd half since he has never thrown over 170 innings in a year and has only thrown over 100 2x prior to this year.
Stroman is having a really nice year. Although, he was bad in 2018 and 2016. ERA + of 112 for his career. So what guy will you get? The ceiling is high, the floor is low. Very low strikeout totals for his career, so you are gonna be counting on him pitching to contact, which won’t play as well in some of the live parks. 1-1 with a 4.40 in the playoffs. Not a guy who can overpower a good team, and he will only be facing good teams in the playoffs.
Bumgarner – ERA+ of 121 career. 105 this year. He has had a couple of rough outings this year, I don’t think there is anybody here who would be surprised if he turned it on in the second half and ends up with a ERA under 3.5. 8-3 with a 2.11 in 102 playoff innings.
The goal of these ridiculous articles and comments is to create an illusion that you are gonna get Bumgarner for a couple of 45 grade prospects. Its a joke.
If somebody is willing to offer a 3 player deal headlined by somebody in the 50-100 top prospect range, you could get him. If not, the Giants would just QO him and take the 2nd and 5th round picks in next years deep draft, or resign him as his market value is lower and the guy is 29 years old.
Stroman is the only reasonable comp based on the extra year of control. However, playoff series Bum vs Stroman game 1, who you taking? Troll on guys.
Man you need a copy and paste that every time a headline that includes bumgarner. Well said my friend. Well said
No, a couple suggests you might get two 45 grade prospects. You won’t get that much. You will get one, and a couple of lottery tickets. That is the ceiling of his value I think.
Ben I firmly believe that Bum will be packaged with Smith. I say that because the return for Mad Bum on his own will likely be highly disappointing to Giants fans. That’s an optics nightmare for Zaidi. Packaged w Will Smith there’s a top 100 prospect+ coming back and the probability of that guy being a good major leaguer is significantly higher. For that reason I don’t think Bum goes alone.
Yeah I actually agree that they’re pretty likely to be packaged and for that exact reason, I just think it’s combined with another 45 rather than getting someone in the top 100, because I just don’t think anyone would do it.
I do think the Red Sox would consider overpaying a bit given Dombrowski’s history. I don’t believe the Giants could get Casas or Flores but potentially Dalbec and maybe Mata, Groome, or Darwinzon (although they probably use Darwinzon in the MLB pen this year).
Mad Bum will probably be traded…only to resign with SF next year…..he does not want to leave the Giants……a lot will depend on who replaces Bochy next year….and, of course what is offered to him contract wise…..he is not out to break the bank..
I think he’s probably a bad buy. You’re necessarily going to pay more than his performance dictates because of the Giants affinity for him (and their fans affinity). He’s a #3, and his postseason success is not really part of his trade value, because he had elite stuff then and doesn’t anymore and hasn’t for awhile. He’s still worth something but shouldn’t draw a top 75 prospect, and if he does, it shouldn’t be a fast-riser type. It should be an underwhelming one. Yeah Giants fans, you can not trade him and hang on to him for whatever It’s worth, but that’ll be the Giants loss and someone else’s non-loss.
name the team that he is the #3 for? I’d def fav that team to win the WS
Virtually all legit contenders. He’s not the same Mad Bum. Any Mad Bum you’re evaluating has to be based upon his performance on the last couple years.
Well, he is the ace of the Twins, Braves, Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers, Angels, Diamondbacks, Yankees etc.
Barring the Astros and Dodgers I don’t know who has a pitcher you throw ahead of him in a must win game. Truthfully I doubt there is a pitcher you throw in the league ahead of him in a 1 game WC.
He has had a bad 1st half and is still at ERA+105.
We do both realize that anything pre 2017 Mad Bum has performance is virtually worthless to his value because he doesn’t have that kind of elite stuff anymore?? Nothing before that really matters at all, except not being a choke. It’s like CC Sabathia being a good big game pitcher… well, yeah, but you wouldn’t want him there now… look, his postseason history is not more than a tiebreaker now. And no, Dodgers, Astros, Cubs (gimme Quintana, Hendricks, and maybe even Lester over him), Rays, (Snell, Morton, Glasnow, even now) Cards (Flaherty despite his soft year, a healthy Reyes, maybe Mikolas (this is close) Nationals (Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin) Red Sox (Sale, Price) Braves (Soroka, Fried, Keuchel), D backs (Greinke, Ray), Indians (Bauer, Clevinger, Bieber) Reds (Castillo and maybe Gray, maybe not, admittedly normally like Mad Bum), Yanks (a healthy Severino and German, Paxton). That said, we’re talking about a #3 on a championship team, that’s why you’re buying. Not just some average #3.
And those are just the contending teams.
dem Stros
Matty I think a lot of people are just trying to get under your skin so I’ll be legit with you on this….
Bumgarner is a guy a contending team should get because their #4 is absolutely brutal, and they feel strongly they have the bats, the D and the Game 1 and 2 starters to win it all.
Bumgarner might pitch Game 3 for said team and turn it on for a start or two. That is all you need so long as the ace and another guy step up and shut down opponents. Bumgarner can still be a difference maker.
Reaper, straight up just described the Astros lol
^100% they are one of the teams.
His fastball velo is up to 93 this year (his career average) his k/9 is up over 9 and his k/bb is the best of his career. Where did you get that he doesn’t have elite stuff anymore? And fwiw Bumgarner never had elite stuff. He got by on deception, movement, and location, he’d never blow guys away with a 97 MPH fastball. The fastest pitch he’s thrown in his career is only 95. He never had elite stuff but his stuff is pretty much back to his career average
Exactly he’s never had elite stuff, just A1 control and deception. Also he’s very good a keeping hitters off balance. Look at Hendricks from the Cubs, 86-88mph heaters lol but the dudes control is A1 and he keeps hitters off balanced. And it also has to do with the catcher calling the games. He’s pitches better when Posey is behind the plate vs voght.
Just curious… Could a player leverage no-trade rights into an understanding that the team that acquires him would agree not to attach a qualifying offer to him in free agency? The author eludes to the potential qualifying offer here, but doesn’t seem to go any further with that subject.
Yes. But it would be a gentlemen’s agreement.
Nvmd this is wrong
No. A player has to be with a team for the entire season to be eligible for a QO. That’s why the article mentions that a trade would benefit Bum, since he would enter free-agency without the impediment of a QO attached.
From the article: “…there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. …the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.”
Oh, yup, this dude is right.
Yeah you’re right. I wasn’t thinking. If he gets traded the possibility of the QO goes away.
Once he is traded the draft pick won’t be attached to him when he becomes a free agent.
Bumgarner will fetch a prospect in the 80-100 range, with one throw-in…at most. I’d rather have MadBum than Wheeler for a postseason run, but not longterm because Wheeler’s stuff will be better in 2-3 years.
Stroman is a groundball pitcher, and Bumgarner is a fly-ball pitcher. Stroman is a better fit for Yankee stadium, no question. Bauer eclipses all.
Bumgarner will be a Phillie. Wheeler will go to the Red Sox. Stroman will be a Yankee. Bauer won’t move because Indians are about to catch the Twins.
His stuff isn’t good now. Yes he throws 97 but he can’t locate it that’s why he’s given up 16hr in less than 100 inn and his era is just south of 5.00. Bumgarner will be better in 2-3 yrs over wheeler. Wheeler I can seeing getting hurt because of his bad mechanics.
Here’s something a lot of people are not talking about… MadBum is constantly linked to a possible Yankees trade.. Who, last time I checked, had some rule around hair length and facial hair.
Would MadBum shave and cut his hair to play there? Do the Yankees still have this rule?
In a year when Zaidi can rebuild the farm system sooner than expected, no one should assume that he’ll package assets together when he can get decent returns on individual deals. As for any potential deal with the Twins, Larnach will be involved.
I’d talk to the Cardinals about Goldscmidt’s availability in return for one legendary #40 of them SFG’s.
Teheran(w/option), Inciarte, Kyle Wright & Joey Wentz for MadBum.
Today.
Madison Bumgarner to braves
By bye teheran
He was raised a Braves fan. Wants to play in Atlanta. Sit back and see where he’s pitching come August. Oh Yeah.