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Trevor Bauer

Reds Avoid Arbitration With Trevor Bauer

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The Reds have worked out a deal with right-hander Trevor Bauer, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll pitch for $17.5MM in 2020 rather than going to a third-straight hearing.

The MLBTR/Matt Swartz model projected a beefier raise than the $4.5MM that Bauer will ultimately receive. But as Matt explained recently in a detailed breakdown of Bauer’s case, the model’s predicted $5.6MM raise (to a $18.6MM salary) felt a bit lofty when examining specific recent comps.

It’s an important number, not just for Bauer and the Reds. As the above-linked post explains, this sets a new reference point for pitchers of this type — i.e., those that have thrown a lot of innings and perhaps even produced a big strikeout tally in their platform year, but with uninspiring results in the earned-run department.

Bauer had secured big victories in hearings with the Indians in each of the prior two offseasons. But he saw eye to eye with his new organization, which picked him up in a surprising trade in the summer of 2019.

This time around, Bauer was carrying a somewhat less enticing statistical record. He racked up the innings (213) and strikeouts (253), but ended the 2019 season with only a 4.48 ERA as well as a losing record (which does factor for arbitration).

Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Trevor Bauer’s arbitration cases have gone to a hearing two years in a row, and he has emerged victorious both times. However, his 2019 performance was weaker in several ways, and it remains to be seen how big a raise he can get over his $13MM salary from 2019 in his last year before reaching free agency.

My model does see him getting a sizable $5.6MM raise, mainly due to his career-high 213 innings and 253 strikeouts. After putting up a 2.21 ERA in 2018, Bauer regressed back to a 4.48 ERA in 2019 and actually had a losing record of 11-13 for the first time in four years. This was not merely bad luck either. His FIP worsened by nearly two runs as well, going from 2.44 to 4.34. Of course, with a very low HR/FB in 2018, his FIP benefited. But SIERA adjusts for this and still saw nearly a one-run deterioration from 3.21 to 4.14 for Bauer. Bauer walked a career high 82 hitters while allowing 34 home runs. Despite his higher strikeout total, his K/9 fell slightly from 11.3 to 10.7 in 2019.

Arbitration panels do not use sabermetric stats like FIP or SIERA very frequently, so Bauer’s case will largely come down to his robust 213 innings versus his 4.48 ERA. Finding similar comparables is tricky, but several potential pitchers do emerge.

If we focus on pitchers with at least 180 innings pitched but ERA’s over 4.0 who were entering arbitration for the third or fourth time, we get four pitchers in recent years that seem comparable. Each got raises between $3.0 and $3.55MM, obviously less than Bauer’s $5.6 million projection. Of course, none struck out hitters at anywhere near the clip that Bauer did. Patrick Corbin in 2018 had the highest total strikeouts of the bunch with 178 in 189.2 innings and a 4.03 ERA to go along with a 14-13 record. He got a $3.55MM raise. With fewer innings and way fewer strikeouts, Corbin’s case is clearly weaker. Tanner Roark’s 9-15, 4.34 performance in 180.1 innings earned him a similar raise last year ($3.53MM), while Andrew Cashner’s 184.2 innings and 6-16, 4.34 performance only got him $3.1MM back in 2016. Hector Santiago got a $3.0MM boost in 2017 after going 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 182 innings. Each of these four pitchers had a weaker case than Bauer, so his floor is probably in the mid-3’s.

If we flip things to look for pitchers with similar strikeout totals, only three guys with similar service time had 225 strikeouts going into their third of fourth year of arbitration during the last five years. David Price got a $5.75MM raise five years ago after a 15-12, 3.26 campaign, in which he threw 248.1 innings and struck out 271 batters. That case is probably somewhat stale though, even if Price clearly had a better case than Bauer does now. More recently, Gerrit Cole got a $6.75MM raise last year and Jacob deGrom had a $9.6MM raise. The 1.70 ERA that deGrom posted en route to a Cy Young Award clearly makes him a poor comparable for Bauer. Even Cole’s 2.88 ERA is a run and a half better than Bauer’s 4.48. Cole went 15-5 in 200.1 innings and struck out 276. Cole’s $6.75MM raise is obviously a ceiling.

It seems unlikely that Bauer will fall below Patrick Corbin’s $3.55MM raise or best Cole’s $6.75MM raise, and should land somewhere in between. To get the $5.6MM the model projects, he may need to argue that Price’s $5.75MM raise from 2015 is too stale to be relevant, which puts him somewhere in the vague range between Corbin and Cole. I suspect Bauer may not get quite up to that point, although if he does take his case to a panel again, he could quite easily get there if the Reds aim too low. Bauer will certainly be an interesting reference point for pitchers with significant innings and strikeout totals who put up mediocre traditional statistics in future years, since it is obvious that few such cases currently exist.

NL Notes: Giants, Bumgarner, Bauer, Manfred, Padres, Yates

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The Giants “remain engaged” on franchise legend Madison Bumgarner, according to the last check of the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman (link). Obviously, the word “engaged” can be taken to mean any number of things–ranging from casual contact to protracted negotiation. It is notable, though, that Bumgarner’s longtime team apparently hasn’t been scared off by the increasing amount of competition for his services.

Since November, we’ve heard the Twins, Padres, Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals all linked to the lefthander to varying degrees. It became clear that MadBum’s reps were seeking something in excess of $100MM after they apparently passed on a reported $70MM-plus offer from Arizona earlier this offseason. Recent ceiling-raising deals for Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole have likely only helped position such a nine-figure contract as a probable outcome.

More Saturday notes from around the NL…

  • Add Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer to those critical of proposed changes from Rob Manfred and the league office. Well, perhaps “critical” doesn’t exactly do Bauer’s Saturday comments justice–perhaps “scorched earth” would be a better descriptor? “At least Rob Manfred is trying to ruin baseball at all levels and isn’t discriminating,” Bauer said on Twitter today. “Something to be said for consistency, I guess.” Bauer then asked followers what their “most hated Rob Manfred idea” was, before following up with a second tweet that characterized Manfred’s proposed changes as a “money grab”. While players should be entitled to their own opinions, it rates as newsworthy to see a public-facing employee criticize a central administrative office so, well, publicly. Whether other players share Bauer’s enmity toward proposed changes–which center around minor league contraction–is an open question.
  • Although it still remains to be seen if his club will make a front-end addition to its pitching staff, Padres GM AJ Preller certainly feels like their Drew Pomeranz addition will help make its bullpen one of MLB’s best. “I think the way Drew pitched at the end of last season, what Kirby’s done the last three years and especially last year, we feel really good about the back part of our bullpen,” Preller said of pairing Pomeranz with closer Kirby Yates, as quoted in an article from Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. Interestingly, Preller also made some comments that, if we’re inclined to close reading, could be seen as something of a statement on Yates’ future with the club. “If that ends up being something that plays out for us over the course of Drew’s four years, and we have lights out back of the bullpen, that would be ideal, honestly,” Preller said. Yates only has one year of control remaining, and extension talks have seemed rather touch-and-go to this point. Preller didn’t mention the Hawaiian by name in the last part of that quote, and his use of the word “ideal” should also be noted; still, it does give some indication of how the team’s top baseball operations mind envisions the club’s pen in future seasons. Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune relayed that the club plans to resume contract talks with Yates after, in Preller’s words, the club gets “a better sense of where we’re at payroll wise, where we’re at roster wise” over the next few weeks.

Trevor Bauer Explores Different Agency Experience, Becomes First Client Of Luba Sports

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Enigmatic hurler Trevor Bauer has left the Wasserman Media Group to become the first client of Luba Sports, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Luba Sports is a new sports agency started by Rachel Luba, who officially became certified as an MLB agent on November 1st. Luba Sports will make up just one part of Bauer’s new representation, however. Bauer hired another certified MLB agent, Jon Fetterolf, a litigator from Zuckerman Spaeder who has a history of assisting agents in arbitration proceedings.

Bauer had no qualms with his previous agency, who did, after all, help him win consecutive arbitration cases against the Cleveland Indians, but at this stage in his career, he’s looking not only at his own upcoming arbitration case, but at the system as a whole. Surprise surprise, but the innovative and free-thinking Bauer has eyes towards making a difference for the betterment of players. Still, Bauer makes a point not to disparage the Wasserman Media Group or the current system. Rather, he aims to give players another option of representation moving forward

As such, the structure of representation set up between Bauer, Luba, and Fetterolf differs from the standard practice in baseball, in which players typically pay 5% of their salaries to their agents upon reaching the majors. Instead, Fetterolf will make a lower commission (1.5 to 2.5%) that differs depending on the player’s career status, plus an hourly rate. Still, the overall fee caps at 5% for an arbitration-eligible player and 4% for a free agent. Depending on the hourly workload, then, players have the potential to pay a good deal less under this structure.

The goal of this system would be to allow players to pay strictly for services rendered, thereby allowing a more personalized agency experience. Rather than being locked into the commission model, an “a la carte” system gives players the option of paying less for fewer services (or paying more for more). This would not wholly upend the player-agent relationship, though it does provide an interesting opportunity for players to reconsider the current structure and explore a system that might work more in their favor. It’s certainly on brand for Bauer to push for this type of innovation, and it will be interesting to follow the extent to which Luba Sports or similar agencies can make inroads with the MLB player community.

Bauer and Luba’s relationship dates back to their days as undergraduates at UCLA when they met in a communication studies class. Luba would go on to become an attorney and work for the players’ union during the 2018 arbitration season. She would be offered a position as an agent with another agency, but chose to forge her own path instead.

The timing here, of course, is not coincidental as Bauer prepares for his final time through arbitration this winter. MLB Contributor Matt Swartz projects Bauer to earn $18.6MM with the Reds this season.

Quick Hits: Maxwell, Lorenzen, Bauer, Manfred

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Former Athletics catcher Bruce Maxwell is a player known more for his ideological stances than for his performance on the diamond, but that hasn’t stopped the backstop from turning a few heads while playing in Mexico this season. The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser can be counted as one who has taken the time to notice Maxwell’s torrid production south of the border, as the veteran scribe profiled the catcher’s attempts to resurrect a career impacted, in part, by his decision to kneel during the national anthem in 2017 (link). The now-28-year-old Maxwell hit .325 with 25 homers in 2019 while playing for the Acereros de Monclova, a team that also featured fellow former Athletic Chris Carter. But, as Slusser points out, it’s far from clear if Maxwell’s foreign success will be enough to entice teams to overlook the “political baggage” (Slusser’s words) associated with him.

“People say you have to be stand-up citizens, but guys who are taking steroids come back and they still have jobs,” Maxwell said to Slusser in regard to his current lack of stateside of employment. “Guys who beat their wives are back like nothing happened.” While Maxwell had a few other expletive-laced thoughts on the subject of perceived double standards within the business of sport, he did also admit to some mistakes over a brief MLB career that saw him hit .240/.314/.347 (83 wRC+) over 127 games. “I accept I had an attitude,” Maxwell said, “and I could have changed it and I didn’t; I accept responsibility for that.” Maxwell, in addition to his anthem protest, also gained notoriety for a 2017 arrest for aggravated assault.

More notes from around the game, as the Nats and Cards do battle in the NLCS…

  • While any news involving Maxwell is likely to inspire some commenting forum debate, our second item comes with far less controversy. In a piece for The Cincinnati Enquirer, Bobby Nightengale profiles Reds hurler Michael Lorenzen’s offseason quest to add velo to his already-fearsome fastball (link). Notably, Lorenzen is planning to seek the tutelage of recently new teammate Trevor Bauer. “We’re talking about making my delivery more efficient where I’m actually able to throw harder with less effort,” Lorenzen said of his discussions with Bauer to this point. “That’s a real thing if you understand human anatomy and human movement. It’s a real thing. With my strength numbers and my power numbers and my movement quality, I should be throwing harder.” As Nightengale points out, Lorenzen already averaged 97.2 mph on his heater this past season en route to notching a 2.92 ERA across 83.1 innings out of the Cincy pen. If Bauer is able to replicate the success he had working with former Indians teammate Mike Clevinger–who added several ticks to his fastball under Bauer’s instruction–the Reds may find themselves with a truly terrifying late-inning option in the Orange County-bred Lorenzen.
  • Evan Drellich of The Athletic published a thoughtful and well-researched piece that touched on MLB’s so-called attendance problem, which the writer positions as a possible consequence of broader societal moves toward online–and not in-person–leisure activities (link). MLB attendance was 68,494,752 in 2019, down 1.7 percent from the 2018 season, but Drellich points to the year-over-year growth of MLB At Bat and MLB.tv as signs that the league is growing in ways that may not be evident when looking at attendance data alone. Commissioner Rob Manfred is inclined to agree with this line of thinking: “We try to think about engagement with the game,” Manfred told Drellich. “We sell different things. We sell a live product…We sell a broadcast product…We try to look broader than just attendance.” Drellich’s piece also features extensive data regarding the league’s deployment of social science polling data in their concerted effort to engage Gen Z fans–very heady stuff, for those so inclined.

Reds Acquire Trevor Bauer In 3-Team Deal With Indians, Padres

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Last night’s stunning three-team trade is now official.  The Indians have traded star right-hander Trevor Bauer to the Reds, who sent back right fielder Yasiel Puig and lefty pitching prospect Scott Moss.  Cleveland also added a trio of players from the Padres: outfielder Franmil Reyes, young left-hander Logan Allen, and rookie-level infielder Victor Nova.  On the San Diego end of the swap, the Friars have landed much-hyped outfield prospect Taylor Trammell from the Reds.  Amazingly, the finishing touch on Puig’s brief Reds career was his involvement in a dust-up with the Pirates, which actually went down after the trade agreement was reached.  That finale may have edged out Bauer’s last impression as an Indian from Sunday.

At 49-55 and 6 1/2 games out of wild-card position, Cincinnati’s chances of earning a playoff spot this year appear close to dead. Nevertheless, the poor win-loss results the team has achieved this season didn’t deter president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall, whose goal is to make a more serious playoff push in 2020. The Reds may be in position to do that by picking up Bauer, who – barring more deals – could team with Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Anthony DeSclafani and Tyler Mahle to give the Reds one of the game’s best rotations next season. Cincinnati’s starting staff has been a formidable group without Bauer this year, but it could lose one or two veterans by Wednesday’s trade deadline. Tanner Roark and Alex Wood look like possible candidates to wind up on the move, but even if they stay put through the season, they’re not under contract beyond then.

The 28-year-old Bauer has been a quality, albeit somewhat frustrating, starter since he entered the pro ranks as the third overall pick of the Diamondbacks in 2011. He went to the Indians in a three-team trade in 2012 (which also involved the Reds) and has since pitched to a 3.89 ERA/3.95 FIP across 1,044 1/3 innings and 180 appearances (170 starts). Bauer was at his best last year, during which he earned Cy Young consideration on the strength of a splendid 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP over 175 1/3 frames.

While Bauer hasn’t been as effective this season, he has still notched a solid 3.79 ERA/4.17 FIP with 10.63 K/9 against 3.62 BB/9 through a league-leading 156 2/3 innings. That was eminently valuable production to a Cleveland team which has been without Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger for significant parts of the season, but the Tribe nonetheless deemed Bauer expendable. In his final act as an Indian, Bauer fired a ball from the pitcher’s mound over the center field wall Sunday after a frustrating outing in Kansas City.

Clearly, Bauer’s on-field tantrum last weekend didn’t have an adverse affect on his trade value. The Indians are bringing back a major haul for Bauer, who’s making $13MM now, will earn an arbitration raise next season and has said he plans to go year to year in free agency thereafter. As a 62-44 team that holds the American League’s top wild-card spot and trails the AL Central-leading Twins by 2 1/2 games, the Indians were only going to trade Bauer if it helped them stay in contention this season. It appears this deal will enable them to accomplish that. It’ll also shave quite a bit of salary from the Indians’ 2020 books while giving them multiple potential long-term pieces.

Puig is only under control through this season, during which he’s making a $9.7MM salary, but will team with Reyes to help give the Indians the right-handed outfield/DH punch they’d been seeking on the trade market. With the Puig and Reyes acquisitions, the Indians have become the first team to ever land two 20-home run hitters in one midseason trade, Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out.

The 28-year-old Puig joined the Reds last winter in a previous blockbuster involving the Dodgers. Although Puig got off to a horrible start this season, his production has taken off over the past several weeks. Puig now owns a .252/.302/.475 slash with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases (19 attempts) across 404 plate appearances. Long a capable defender in right field, Puig has also performed well in that aspect this year.

One of the key elements of this deal for Puig is that it completely wipes out the possibility of him receiving a qualifying offer after the season. Puig only looked like a borderline candidate for a QO, but now that he’s off the Reds, he’s on schedule to reach free agency unfettered over the winter.

Just as Bauer’s Indians stint ended in bizarre fashion, so did Puig’s days with the Reds. He was involved in a brawl during the Reds-Pirates game Tuesday when news of the trade came down. Puig may have to serve a suspension early in his Tribe tenure as a result.

There are no such concerns centering on Reyes, who has emerged as one of the game’s foremost power bats since he debuted a year ago. Although Reyes has struggled to consistently get on base this season, his first full campaign in the majors, the big-bodied 24-year-old has still batted .255/.314/.536 (117 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 354 PA. Given his prolific home run totals, Reyes could eventually rake in sizable sums via arbitration, but that isn’t something the Indians will have to worry about for the foreseeable future. Reyes isn’t on track to reach arbitration until after the 2021 season, and he’s not scheduled to become a free agent until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign.

Not to be forgotten, the Indians are also getting three less established players in this deal in Allen, Nova and Moss. The 22-year-old Allen entered the season as a top 100-caliber prospect. He has since struggled in a 25 1/3-inning major league sample and in 57 2/3 frames with Triple-A El Paso of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, Allen was still regarded as one of the many high-end prospects in a jam-packed Padres system. FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen ranked Allen as the Padres’ eighth-best farmhand back in May, writing that he “comfortably projects as a No. 4 starter.”

Nova, 19, was not grouped in with the Padres’ premier farmhands, but Longenhagen tweets that the infielder’s “an interesting, bat-first flier.” The Dominican Republic native has held his own this year in rookie ball, where he has batted .330/.421/.451 (136 wRC+) with seven steals in 109 PA.

Now 24, Moss became a Red when they used a fourth-round pick on him in 2016. The former Tommy John patient has since put up appealing results in the minors, including this year. In his first experience in Double-A ball, Moss has thrown 102 innings and recorded a 3.44 ERA/3.52 FIP with 10.85 K/9, though he has walked just over five hitters per nine. Moss ranked as the Reds’ 12th overall prospect at MLB.com, which notes he has a “somewhat limited” ceiling but could turn into a back-end starter or swingman at the MLB level.

The highest-ranked prospect in this trade is Trammell, whom Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (subscriptions required) placed near the top of the sport in their most recent updates. BA rates Trammell 41st, while Law’s even more bullish (No. 14). This hasn’t been a hugely effective season for the 21-year-old Trammell, who has batted .236/.350/.338 (108 wRC+) with six homers and 17 steals in 377 PA during his initial taste of Double-A action. However, youth and injuries have played a part in Trammell’s unspectacular output, explains Law, who contends the youngster has the tools to become “a good regular or a star” in left field.

The Padres, of course, surrendered a substantial amount to acquire the unproven Trammell. But trading Reyes will somewhat enable the club to alleviate its current logjam in the outfield. With Reyes out of the mix, the Padres still have two starting-caliber corner outfield options in Hunter Renfroe and the maligned, expensive Wil Myers. They also have rookie Josh Naylor, Travis Jankowski and Franchy Cordero as 40-man options who are either in the minors or injured at present.

Weighing all the pieces in this trade, it’s all the more surprising the Blue Jays couldn’t reel in a greater return for righty Marcus Stroman this past weekend. At $7.4MM, Stroman’s cheaper than Bauer, under control for the same period and has arguably been the better of the two this season. Nevertheless, in a trade with the Mets, the Jays were only able to secure two non-elite prospects – pitchers Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson – for Stroman. There was plenty of chatter afterward that teams were clinging to their prospects and unwilling to give up truly outstanding young talent anymore, but this three-way deal shows that isn’t the case.

Jeff Passan of ESPN broke the news of the deal. Additional players involved were conveyed by Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Dennis Lin of The Athletic, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pitching Rumors: Reds, Bauer, Yanks, Phils, MadBum, Greene, Fish, Nats

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The Reds just agreed to acquire right-hander Trevor Bauer from the Indians on Tuesday evening. Could the Reds now turn around and flip Bauer by Wednesday’s trade deadline? Not likely, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Meanwhile, two of Bauer’s new Cincinnati rotation mates – Alex Wood and the previously reported Tanner Roark – have drawn interest from the Phillies. Philly has “taken a very close look at” Wood, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Wood finally just made his season debut Sunday after months of back troubles, but the non-contending Reds could now attempt to get what they can for the pending free agent. The 28-year-old Wood, who’s on a $9.65MM salary, posted quality production with the Braves and Dodgers from 2013-18.

A smorgasbord of other pitcher-related rumors…

  • Despite their recent run of excellence, the Giants are fielding calls and “engaging in negotiations” for starter Madison Bumgarner and reliever Will Smith, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The Astros are reportedly among the teams chasing Bumgarner, but Smith is the more likely of the two to find himself in a new uniform by Wednesday, Schulman suggests. Although he’s a pending free agent, it’s likely Smith would bring back a significant return. He’s affordable ($4.225MM salary) and enjoying a marvelous season as the Giants’ closer.
  • Back to Bauer, who was reportedly one of the Yankees’ preferred targets in their search for starting help. That may have been overblown, though, as the Yankees and Indians didn’t engage in “serious talks” over Bauer, Andy Martino of SNY relays.
  • The asking price for Tigers closer Shane Greene is “far more reasonable” than the requests for other high-end relievers around the league, Feinsand tweets. Feinsand points to the Pirates’ Felipe Vazquez, the Reds’ Raisel Iglesias, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz and the Padres’ Kirby Yates as relievers who would be much harder to acquire, which isn’t surprising.
  • Reliever Nick Anderson is among Marlins hurlers garnering interest, though he’ll be difficult to pry loose, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes. As a 29-year-old rookie, the hard-throwing Anderson has put up a 3.92 ERA with a much better 2.73 FIP in 43 2/3 frames this season. While Anderson has only induced ground balls at a 27.3 percent clip, he has helped offset that by racking up a prodigious 14.2 strikeouts against 3.3 walks per nine. Adding to his value, Anderson’s on a league-minimum salary and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 season.
  • The Giants and Nationals “have discussed” southpaw Drew Pomeranz, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Pomeranz, whom the Giants recently demoted to their bullpen amid a rough season, has also been drawing interest from elsewhere in recent days.

Trevor Bauer Drawing Increased Interest; Reds Have Inquired

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There’s been an “uptick” in the level of trade interest in Indians righty Trevor Bauer today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Rosenthal adds that the Indians are becoming increasingly tempted to make a deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post, meanwhile, tweets that several executives throughout the league now believe the Indians are more likely to trade Bauer than to keep him.

More interestingly, Rosenthal tweets that the Reds and Indians have had discussions about a potential Bauer swap. Outfield prospect Taylor Trammell has been a part of those topics, Rosenthal notes, although Trammell is in the midst of a down season in Double-A and doesn’t exactly fit the bill of a big-league-ready asset the Reds can plug directly onto the 25-man roster. Cleveland is marketing Bauer more due to looming payroll concerns than because the organization is waving a white flag on the current season, and the common line of thinking has been that they’d need an immediate roster supplement in order to consider parting with Bauer.

Cincinnati’s interest, too, suggests that the club isn’t giving up on its push to end its ongoing rebuild. The Reds added Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig over the winter in an effort to contend in the NL Central. Those efforts didn’t put the club in contention for a division title, but Gray looks reborn as a quality starter and was extended for three more years. While Roark and Wood are slated to hit free agency (as is Puig), Bauer would give the Reds another option for the 2020 rotation. The trio of Bauer, Gray and Luis Castillo would become on of the more formidable top three in the game and would position Cincinnati well for a 2020 push before even reaching the offseason.

Unsurprisingly, it seems that the recent outburst in which Bauer hurled a ball over the center field fence out of being frustration upon being lifted from a start hasn’t deterred clubs from expressing interest. That incident resulted in a fine for Bauer but not a suspension, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, but there won’t be any additional action from the league. Indians skipper Terry Francona spoke of potentially levying some additional team-issued discipline for Bauer (link via Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com), but that would of course only come into play if Bauer remains with Cleveland beyond tomorrow afternoon’s deadline.

Interest in Bauer has been fairly widespread, with the Padres, Yankees and Astros all linked to the right-hander (in addition to the aforementioned Reds). Houston has had “recent” talks about Bauer, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, though it’s not clear whether that’s indicative of talks earlier today or simply confirmation of the prior talks that have been reported upon in recent weeks.

Latest On Trevor Bauer

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It’s anyone’s guess whether the Indians will trade right-hander Trevor Bauer before Wednesday’s deadline. On one hand, he’s an integral piece of a surging team that has climbed to 62-42, putting the Tribe four up on the AL’s top wild-card spot and just one back of the division-leading Twins. On the other, the budget-conscious Indians would net an enticing return for Bauer, who’s on a $13MM salary and figures to earn a raise of $5MM or more to conclude his arbitration control next season. Even if the Indians decide to retain Bauer through this year, his time in Cleveland is nearing a conclusion. The 28-year-old “almost certainly” isn’t going to be on the Indians’ roster in 2020, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports.

In the meantime, the Indians have a few days to choose how to proceed with Bauer this season. There’s already known to be plenty of interest in Bauer, but it seems two of the Indians’ AL rivals – the Yankees and Astros – are pursuing him with more vigor than anyone else. Those two clubs “keep inquiring about Bauer,” writes Hoynes, who adds the Indians have also discussed him with the Padres and Braves.

Among the Yankees, Astros, Padres and Braves, only San Diego isn’t an immediate contender. However, the club is known to like Bauer, whom it tried to acquire at the beginning of the season. Led by their collection of young talent, the Padres have made progress since then, and they’re aiming to make a more spirited run at a playoff berth next year. That’s evidenced by the club’s interest in Bauer and other established starters, including Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd and Mets righty Noah Syndergaard.

It would seem rather difficult for Cleveland to hand Bauer to New York or Houston, in part because the Indians could realistically wind up facing him as a Yankee or Astro in the postseason. Plus, considering Corey Kluber has been out since May 1 with a forearm fracture (and isn’t returning imminently) and Carlos Carrasco’s battling leukemia, the Indians arguably need Bauer more than ever.

Bauer not only leads the Indians’ staff in innings (152 1/3), but he paces the entire league in that department, and has logged a solid 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP with 10.58 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9. All-Star MVP Shane Bieber is the lone Indians starter who has outperformed Bauer over the course of a full season in 2019. Mike Clevinger has been fantastic again, though he has only made nine starts. Another rookie, Zach Plesac, has joined Bieber in outdoing Bauer in ERA (3.10), but that figure looks like a house of cards when examining his fielding-independent pitching numbers. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko and the currently injured Jefry Rodriguez have managed back-end type of numbers over a combined 17 starts.

For now, the interest in Bauer may wind up going for naught. The Indians could prefer to hold Bauer and try to take another run at a championship as control over him and several other notables – most importantly, Francisco Lindor – dissipates. If the Indians elect against moving Bauer in the next few days, Hoynes suggests they’ll attempt to supplement their roster, perhaps by by adding relief and-or offensive help. Hoynes points to Rangers slugger Hunter Pence as “a possibility” for Cleveland, though it’s unclear if that’s speculation or if there’s real interest on the Tribe’s part.

Yankees Rumors: Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Wheeler

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The Yankees and Twins, two American League powers, staged a memorable three-game battle in Minnesota this week. This round went to the Yankees, who took two of three in an offense-driven set that saw the Bombers live up to their name in outscoring the Twins 30-27.

While the Yankees are now a major league-best 66-35, they’re surely not thrilled with the way their somewhat maligned pitching staff performed against the high-powered Twins. Starters C.C. Sabathia, Domingo German and J.A. Happ were among Yankees hurlers who took beatings, which could intensify the club’s efforts to improve its rotation before the July 31 trade deadline. That remains general manager Brian Cashman’s primary focus, according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

Over the past several weeks, the Yankees have been connected to just about every top starter potentially available – including the Indians’ Trevor Bauer, the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, and the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.

Bauer is near the top of the Yankees’ wish list, per Hoch, who reports they “would love” to see Cleveland make him available. Indians general manager Mike Chernoff seemingly hasn’t closed the door on a Bauer trade, but parting with him would be an unexpected move from a Tribe team that has overcome a difficult start to climb into playoff position. The Indians are 59-42, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and just two back of the Twins, thanks in part to Bauer. The 28-year-old has racked up a major league-high 152 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.49 BB/9.

Like Bauer, Bumgarner’s perhaps an indispensable piece to a team that has emerged as a playoff hopeful. Bumgarner looked like a surefire trade candidate all season until the red-hot Giants won 17 of 21 in recent weeks. They’re currently 52-51 and three back of a wild card. The future of Bumgarner, a Giants icon, looks much more up in the air as a result. Regardless, it doesn’t seem as if Bumgarner – who has the Yankees on his limited no-trade list – is New York’s preferred choice. “Yankees people are said to be less enthused with” Bumgarner than Bauer, Hoch writes.

Meanwhile, Hoch relays that the belief is the Mets are uninterested in dealing with the crosstown rival Yankees at all, no matter what they might offer for Syndergaard or Wheeler. That would be unfortunate for the Yankees, who may be the team with the most interest in Syndergaard and would reportedly be willing to trade their premier prospect, Deivi Garcia, for him. As a soon-to-be free agent who’s about to return from a multi-week absence stemming from a shoulder injury, Wheeler has far less trade value than Syndergaard. Andy Martino of SNY reported three weeks ago that the Mets were open to sending Wheeler – then healthy – to the Bronx, but that might not be the case after all.

Even if the Yankees don’t end up with Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard or Wheeler, they do seem likely to strengthen their rotation this month. After Minnesota shredded its staff this week, New York’s starters rank a middling to worse 15th in ERA, 16th in fWAR and 21st in FIP. Nobody from the group has produced truly great numbers, either. Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and German have posted low-four ERAs with aligning peripherals, while Sabathia and Happ have performed like back-end options at best.

One would be remiss to ignore that the Yankees have gone without their ace – Luis Severino – all season because of shoulder and lat injuries. While the Yankees are hopeful the star righty will return in mid to late August, which could provide an enormous boost, it’s unknown whether Severino will be able to go full bore at any point this year. Cashman suggested two weeks ago that Severino could max out at 75 pitches or even work as a reliever. Severino’s ongoing absence has thrown a massive wrench in the Yankees’ plans this year, and it could have a big hand in the club landing an outside starter.

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