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AL Central Notes: Mize, Indians, Pineda

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Tigers fans are holding their collective breaths as top prospect Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, exited last night’s Double-A start with an apparent injury (link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). After a third-inning pitch — a fastball that was clocked at 85-86 mph, per Tom Reisenweber of the Erie Times-News (Twitter link) — catcher Kade Scivicque went to the mound and called out the training staff and skipper Mike Rabelo. Mize departed the game at that point. There’s been no formal update on his condition, though Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle tweets that Mize didn’t have his elbow or shoulder wrapped upon leaving the clubhouse and lifted his own bags onto the team’s bus — none of which seem indicative of a major injury. Presumably, the Tigers will have further updates on Mize in the near future.

Here’s more from the division…

  • The Indians are facing an 11-game deficit in the AL Central, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests that the team won’t act as an aggressive buyer this summer unless it feels there’s a real chance at winning the division. That’s become increasingly clear in recent weeks. As the gap in the AL Central has grown, so too have rumors about the potential availability of coveted pitchers such as Trevor Bauer (controlled through 2020) and Brad Hand (signed through 2021). Morosi notes that Cleveland would be “poised” to listen to offers on that pair, as well as the resurgent Carlos Santana, barring a sudden climb back into the division race. Santana is hitting .286/.406/.530 with 14 homers and more walks (46) than strikeouts (45) through 281 plate appearances in his return to Cleveland. He’s earning $17MM in 2019 and$17.5MM in 2020, though the Mariners are on the hook for $5MM of the salary still owed to him. Santana’s contract also contains a $17.5MM club option, but that’ll be his age-35 campaign.
  • Twins righty Michael Pineda used his recent stint on the injured list to focus on the release point on his slider, he tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required). “I’m focusing especially on my release point and finishing my pitches, especially my slider, because this is my pitch for swings and misses,” said Pineda. “I love my slider.” As Hayes observes, Pineda’s rediscovered confidence in the pitch was apparent. He threw just five sliders in his final start prior to landing on the injured list before uncorking 26 sliders in yesterday’s win over the Mariners. Manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson both feel that Pineda looked more impressive yesterday, and Johnson spoke of his satisfaction with the incremental improvements in Pineda’s progression back from 2017 Tommy John surgery and 2018 knee surgery. Notably, the right-hander’s velocity was up a couple miles per hour yesterday as well. A revitalized Pineda would only add another weapon to an already strong Twins club. Pineda has a 5.04 ERA in 69 2/3 innings but yielded just one run in 5 2/3 frames on Thursday.

The Indians Have Some Difficult Decisions Looming

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The Indians didn’t leave themselves much margin for error heading into the 2019 campaign. Ownership mandated payroll cuts in the offseason while delivering a candid and ominous “enjoy him” message to fans in reference to franchise shortstop Francisco Lindor. Cleveland’s Opening Day lineup looked more like the type you’d expect to see in early Spring Training than that of a division favorite earnestly putting forth its best options. An injury to Lindor weakened the product, but the holes throughout an order that featured Tyler Naquin hitting third were glaring.

A questionable offense was a known trade-off, though, as the Indians were built on the foundation of perhaps the game’s best collection of starting pitchers. Two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber was again joined by co-aces Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, while younger righties Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber rounded out a rotation that would make nearly any team envious.

Fast forward a bit more than 10 weeks, and only Bauer and Bieber are healthy — neither with the results one might’ve expected of them. Clevinger made two starts before going down to a teres major strain that still has him on the injured list (though he’s nearing a return). Kluber suffered a fractured arm when he was struck by a comebacker. Most concerning of all, Carrasco is on the injured list due to a blood condition that has rendered him lethargic and likely contributed to some disappointing on-field results of his own. Even the Indians’ top depth option, Jefry Rodriguez, landed on the IL last week.

The result is an Indians club that trails the surprising Twins by 10.5 games in the AL Central. At 33-32, the Indians are still within 1.5 games of the second AL Wild Card spot, but it’s a tight race. Both the Yankees and the Rays are at 40-24, jostling for the AL East division lead. They’re six games up on another surprising club, the Rangers, and one of New York or Tampa Bay appears quite likely to claim that top Wild Card position. The Red Sox, Indians, Athletics, White Sox and Angels are all within four games of Texas for that second spot. Each of the Rangers, Red Sox and Athletics rather handily tops Cleveland’s -6 run differential.

The Indians are clear Wild Card contenders with a (much) longer shot to fight back into the division race, but for a club that entered the year as a strong favorite in the AL Central, their outlook is unexpectedly bleak. And given the obvious payroll constraints they faced in the offseason, it’s worth questioning whether ownership will dub the 2019 campaign somewhat of a transitional year and look to further cut some costs.

The Indians have just $48.4MM committed to next year’s payroll (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That seems plenty manageable, but the number won’t stay at that level. Kluber’s $17.5MM option seems likely to be exercised even with his injury and some unexpected struggles (5.80 ERA in 35 2/3 innings). Lindor and Bauer headline an expensive arbitration class. Lindor already received a $10.55MM salary in his first trip through the process, and while we can’t know precisely what he’ll earn, last year’s Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts cases provide somewhat of a range. Both players earned similar numbers to Lindor in their first arbitration campaigns; Bryant had an injury-hindered year in 2018 and was bumped up to $12.9MM while Betts won the AL MVP and vaulted to $20MM. Lindor will probably check in somewhere near the midpoint — perhaps closer to Betts given that he’s been quite productive since returning from the IL. Bauer, meanwhile, will get a raise on a $13MM salary and could approach the $20MM mark.

The aforementioned $48.4MM figure could balloon to the $100MM vicinity when accounting for the salaries of Lindor, Kluber and Bauer alone. Add Clevinger’s first arbitration salary, the need to supplement the roster in other areas (one of second/third base, the bullpen, the outfield) and several league-minimum players, and it’s easy to see the payroll approaching or even exceeding the current $124MM mark despite a drop in attendance from 2018. All of this is to say that the Indians enter the summer not as the clear-cut buyers that many anticipated but as a team that could plausibly walk the line between a sell-off and some measured upgrades to the roster.

Players like Bauer and Brad Hand will be highly attractive assets who could command sizable returns. Cleveland knows it won’t sign Bauer long-term. The right-hander has been open on multiple occasions about his plans to play out his career on a series of one-year contracts (thus maximizing his salary on a year-over-year basis while also incurring a good bit of risk).

Hand is controlled through 2021 ($7.6MM in 2020, $10MM club option in 2021), and every contender in the game would love the opportunity to add him to its bullpen. His value right now is arguably as high as it was when the Indians acquired him a year ago; Hand has career-bests in ERA (0.98), FIP (1.70), xFIP (2.82) and HR/9 (0.33) at the moment and is eminently affordable. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote yesterday (subscription required) after chatting with executives around the league that other teams expect Cleveland to trade Hand with his value nearing its apex.

Moving Hand or Bauer wouldn’t do the Indians’ playoff chances any favors, but doing so could yield controllable, near-MLB-ready talent while simultaneously providing the front office with a substantial increase in payroll flexibility this winter — dollars that could be reallocated to putting forth a more complete roster. And selling either or both players wouldn’t totally eliminate the team from contention, given the rather mediocre nature of the AL Wild Card race at the moment and the rebuilding nature of the bottom of the AL Central. It’s even plausible that the Indians could trade one of those players and acquire a more affordable replacement.

For now, the focus will surely remain on narrowing the gap between them and the Twins, and it’s certainly worth highlighting that their upcoming schedule is weak. They’ll play a combined 12 games against the Royals, Tigers and Orioles between now and the All-Star break. That presents a nice opportunity to make up some ground, although the Twins also have seven games against the Royals, three against the Mariners and three against the White Sox in that same span. The Indians and Twins will meet for a three-game set in Cleveland to open the second half.

The Indians needn’t embark on a full-scale rebuild like the ones that are taking place in Kansas City and Detroit — though if they ever did go that route, the price on a player of Lindor’s caliber would be staggering — nor do they even need to throw in the towel for the 2019. But the way the season has played out thus far makes it increasingly plausible that they’ll listen to offers for Bauer or Hand — a scenario few expected back in March.

Padres Seeking Front-End Starter

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The Padres have gotten ace-caliber production from rookie Chris Paddack and quality numbers from fellow young starters Joey Lucchesi and Matt Strahm this year, but they’re still not satisfied with their rotation. The club attempted to acquire Indians co-ace Trevor Bauer toward the beginning of the season, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, who reports it’ll continue to seek a No. 1 starter in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. Additionally, San Diego may look for a left-handed hitter to help balance out a righty-heavy lineup, Rosenthal says (video link).

This isn’t the first time the Padres have been tied to the Indians, having reportedly gone after another of their aces, Corey Kluber, in the offseason. The Indians ended up retaining him and Bauer, though, in part because they were expected to contend this year. At 24-20, it appears they’ll do just that, though the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions are facing plenty of resistance from the first-place Twins. Still, barring a collapse over the next couple months, it may be unrealistic to expect the Tribe to wave the white flag and ship out any of their top pitchers during the season.

Along with Bauer and Kluber, the Padres have reportedly pursued deals for the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman dating back to the offseason. They also had winter interest in Dallas Keuchel, who remains a free agent almost seven months after hitting the market. Even though Syndergaard hasn’t been his usual dominant self this season, it’s far from a sure thing the Mets would move him and his two-plus years of team control. Stroman, who’s thriving in his penultimate season of control, looks more likely than Syndergaard to change teams during the summer. Rangers lefty Mike Minor is also among controllable starters who may hit the trade block, given that he’s only signed through next season. As for Keuchel, it’s anyone’s guess how much he’ll wind up raking in during his seemingly endless stay on the open market. Furthermore, it’s unknown whether the Padres are still interested in the 31-year-old former AL Cy Young winner.

One thing is clear: Few teams are in better position to make hay on the trade market than the Padres, who continue to boast an enviable farm system. They’re still a work in progress at the big league level, though, as their desire for more starting pitching and offense shows. For the most part, San Diego’s best hitters are right-handed, with first baseman Eric Hosmer the sole lefty-swinging regular on the roster. The lack of balance has been a problem for the Padres, who have only managed an 83 wRC+ with a .686 OPS against right-handed hurlers.

Trevor Bauer Discusses Arbitration Victory, Future Contracts

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Indians righty Trevor Bauer defeated the club for the second straight year in arbitration. He chatted about his win in a fascinating interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today in which he gave rare insight into the process and looked ahead to a third-straight hearing next winter.

Bauer is a polarizing figure for a variety of reasons, but it’s hard not to appreciate his willingness to think outside the box, put beliefs into action, and open the door to aspects of the sport that typically aren’t visible to the public. In this case, Bauer explained that he observed a “really well-argued case” on both sides — until the very end, when he was on the receiving end of what he labels “a character-assassination.”

As Bauer clarified in later remarks, and as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports, his complaint was with the rebuttal portion of the proceeding conducted by MLB’s labor relations department (“LRD”). After both player and team have their chance at presenting a case — Bauer was represented by his agents at Wasserman, the club by assistant GM Matt Forman — the MLB Players Association and LRD each have a shot at presenting.

The LRD brought up Bauer’s highly publicized charity campaign from last offseason as a negative. Last winter, Bauer made some light of the arbitration system by initially seeking to file at $6,420,969.69, as he told Jeff Passan at the time, though he ultimately opted to file at a more conventional $6.5MM. However, he also embarked on what he termed “69 Days of Giving,” donating $420.69 per day to various charities recommended to him by social media followers in addition to one final donation of $69,420.69 to a charity of his own choosing.

The use of numbers “that mean something socially,” as Bauer put it, was intended to “continue[] the news cycle” and boost the effectiveness of his charitable efforts. But the episode was presented in the arbitration setting as a knock against Bauer’s value. “It kind of put a black mark on what I thought was a really well-argued case on both sides,” Bauer said. “There’s no room for that. Let’s just stick to the numbers. Let the numbers tell the story.”

Indians GM Chris Antonetti said that the team had input on the LRD presentation and did not request that this particular line of attack be removed, though it did do so with regard to other possible arguments. Bauer at least hinted at the fact that the structure of the proceeding allows teams to disclaim responsibility for negativity by leaving it for LRD to present. Regardless, both player and team ultimately expressed that they carry no ill will moving forward.

While all involved seem disinclined to carry grudges, that doesn’t mean that Bauer is looking ahead to a warm and fuzzy arbitration process this time next year. Saying that he intends to demand a salary commensurate with the annual value a top-end free agent starter would command, Bauer predicts that he’ll “set the record raise or the record salary in arbitration for a starting pitcher,” suggesting he ought to earn “$30 million plus.” Since such a payday “will never be agreed upon before a hearing,” he says, a return to the adversarial process seems inevitable.

[RELATED: MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker]

If Bauer does indeed seek to defend a number even approaching that magnitude, he will be looking to break new ground. He did exceed the expectations of MLBTR’s model — and Matt Swartz’s detailed breakdown — this time around. And the CBA language governing arbitration proceedings does hint that, in looking to “comparative baseball salaries,” players in their final season of arb eligibility are appropriately compared to free agents. (“The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group.”)

Still, he’ll be working off of the $13MM figure he earned this year, and arbitration typically works by adding raises on top of prior seasons’ salaries. Star third baseman Nolan Arenado filed at $30MM but settled for $26MM in his final season of eligibility — a record-breaking figure that nevertheless falls well shy of what he’d earn for just one season in free agency, even on a long-term commitment. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom just set a record with a year-over-year raise of $9.6MM; he now sits at $17MM in 2019 earnings and will join Bauer in his final season of arb eligibility next winter — unless, that is, he first reaches an extension.

All of the battling could be forestalled if Bauer was to agree to a long-term deal with the Indians or some hypothetical team that might trade for him. But don’t hold your breath. As Nightengale examines in another piece, Bauer also reiterated his previously stated stance that he intends to “go year-to-year” for his “entire career.”

Bauer’s comments on that subject are fascinating in their own right. As he notes, the tendency to seek lengthy and massive multi-year deals in free agency is a risk-averse strategy for a player to take, as it dumps much of the long-term risk (and year-over-year ups and downs) on the team. Hypothetically, a player could earn more by taking it one season at a time — supposing, at least, that they keep performing. As teams change their means of valuation, he says, players “have to find a way in that environment to still maximize their value.”

The 28-year-old therefore seems content not only doing battle in front of an arbitration panel next winter, but then setting out onto the open market several times in the future. “It’s still unproven how clubs feel about [the one-year approach],” Bauer explains, “but looking at the market, and studying it, I identified for myself personally that it’s the best route to go forward.” Like any good scientist, Bauer will presumably be open to reconsidering that strategy if new evidence or reasoning supports an alternative approach. Of course, even if that occurs, wavering from his current course would rob us all of a chance to gain some fascinating data points.

Bauer, Cole, Wood Win Arbitration Cases

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The players may be suffering through a winter of discontent in the free agent market, but they have now scored some notable wins in arbitration. Trevor Bauer of the Indians, Gerrit Cole of the Astros, and Alex Wood of the Reds have all been awarded the contract values they sought by their respective arbitration panels, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).

Bauer will take home $13MM, a full $2MM more than the Indians had sought to pay him. Cole’s $13.5MM salary was about the same amount higher than the Astros’ $11.425MM filing figure. And Wood secures a $9.65MM payday that tops the $8.7MM the Reds defended.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Those cases break what had been a tie in arb hearings. The players already had a solid edge in the more significant cases, with Blake Treinen ($6.4MM vs. $5.6MM), Carlos Correa ($5MM vs. $4.25MM), and Tommy Pham ($4.1MM vs. $3.5MM) all coming out ahead while Kyle Barraclough ($2MM vs. $1.725MM), Michael Taylor ($3.5MM vs. $3.25MM), and Ryan Tepera ($1.8MM vs. $1.525MM) lost smaller-value contests.

In coming away with wins, all three of the starters also managed to top their projected earning power from MLBTR and Matt Swartz. Bauer ($11.6MM), Cole ($13.0MM), and Wood ($9.0MM) had projected in range of what they ultimately earned, but took shots on securing bigger paydays by making their cases to panels.

Bauer’s situation is particularly noteworthy, since he won a previous arb hearing and remains eligible for one more trip through the process after the 2019 season. This time last year, Bauer emerged with a $6.525MM salary rather than the $5.3MM the team proposed. That made him $1.225MM richer this time around as well, since his raise was dropped on top of a greater starting point. The same will hold true next year.

That serves to illustrate how important these cases can be to an individual player. But there’s also a broader market significance. Each data point that trends north can be cited by another player in the future, either in seeking a bigger arb number or in negotiating out the terms of an extension.

Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins

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Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal.  Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear.  (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.)  More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.

Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…

  • Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2.  Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
  • While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball.  That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
  • Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome.  There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary.  This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season.  Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason.  He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
  • The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link).  Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017.  The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners.  Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017.  Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
  • “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies.  These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.

Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).

Market Chatter: Realmuto, Keuchel, Indians, Castellanos, Ross

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The on-again, off-again chatter surrounding the Braves and Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has left an uncertain situation. While the Atlanta organization already seems to have a palatable situation behind the dish, with Brian McCann rejoining the org to pair with Tyler Flowers, it’s also one that is susceptible of improvement. In any event, the stalemate seemingly continues, though Craig Mish of MLB Network does tweet that the teams have been in contact of late regarding Realmuto. It’s far from clear that any progress has been made, though, as he says the Braves “appear to be waiting [the] Marlins out.” The Rays also “remain a possibility,” says Mish, though at this point it’s really anyone’s guess how things will turn out with regard to Realmuto, who’s a valuable enough asset that any number of other teams could conceivably still enter the picture or circle back if other offseason pursuits don’t pan out.

Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • The Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sagas are holding up the markets for many remaining free agents, even left-hander Dallas Keuchel, per MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (video link). Rosenthal suggested on MLBN’s Hot Stove this morning that Keuchel is waiting to see where the market’s top two free agents land, presumably knowing that a suitor who misses out on Harper or Machado will have money to spend elsewhere. The Phillies, for instance, have been connected to all three players, so it’s not all that difficult to see them making a more serious run at Keuchel should their top two targets sign elsewhere.
  • Another would-be blockbuster situation that may now be fizzling is the Indians’ oft-discussed negotiations on top starters Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer discusses the situation, suggesting it may be time for the Cleveland organization to ask for final offers and otherwise move on from the marketing process. Of course, it’s far from clear that the team is taking that stance. And as Hoynes goes on to discuss, it’s also still not apparent how (or even if) the Indians will go about improving a roster that looks quite a bit different than it did just a few months ago. It’s still possible that Cleveland could add an outfielder from the free-agent market, but there’s no indication that they’re in line to make a significant splash on that front.
  • Meanwhile, talks between the Braves and the Tigers regarding outfielder Nicholas Castellanos have gone nowhere since the two sides talked at last month’s Winter Meetings, Morosi tweets. The Braves are, of course, still looking far and wide for a corner outfielder and are “active” in their pursuit of that key need. With many options seemingly still on the table, though, the club appears to be content not to push hard for any particular player, which might increase the acquisition cost.
  • Veteran southpaw Robbie Ross is preparing to throw for scouts in mid-January as he looks for a new opportunity, MLBTR has learned. Ross spent time with the White Sox organization in 2018, but struggled with his command as he worked back to health following back surgery in August of 2017. He’s now said to be at full strength, though he’ll certainly need to show that to the talent evaluators who take a look. The 29-year-old has generally been quite effective as a big-league reliever, with a 3.52 ERA in 270 2/3 career innings in that capacity.

Indians Notes: Kluber, Bauer, Antonetti, Plawecki

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On this day in 1920, Indians pitching legend Early Wynn was born in Hartford, Alabama.  Wynn spent ten of his 23 Major League seasons with the Tribe, a stint that saw him rack up 164 of his 300 career wins in an Indians uniform and led to Wynn wearing a Cleveland hat on his Hall Of Fame plaque.

The latest from the modern-day team…

  • The Indians haven’t dropped their asking price on either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi writes, as the Tribe is still looking for “Chris Sale-level return” for either starter.  As a refresher of Sale’s move from the White Sox to the Red Sox in December 2016, Chicago landed arguably baseball’s best prospect (Yoan Moncada), another blue-chip pitching prospect (Michael Kopech) and two other solid minor leaguers (outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and hard-throwing righty Victor Diaz).  Sale came with three years of team control, in the form of one guaranteed contract year and two option years that the Red Sox have since exercised at very reasonable prices, given Sale’s ace-level production.  Kluber’s contract is also only guaranteed through 2019 with two club option years, though Kluber is also five years older than Sale.  Bauer is only slightly older than Sale was at the time of the trade, though Bauer is only controlled via arbitration for two more years.  Despite the differences between Sale and Kluber/Bauer, Cleveland’s trade ask isn’t unreasonable, though it’s hefty enough that there hasn’t appeared to be much movement towards a deal (if the Tribe trades either pitcher at all).  “There are no signs of recent progress” between the Indians and the Dodgers, who have been often linked to Kluber and Bauer in trade rumblings this winter.
  • If Kluber or Bauer are moved, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer believes a trade could happen later in the offseason, after free agent arms like Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, and Derek Holland come off the board.  “I don’t believe the Indians will enter Spring Training without having made one more big move,” Pluto writes, arguing that the team still needs significant lineup help, particularly in the outfield.
  • The Tribe did check one notable item off its list today by acquiring catcher Kevin Plawecki from the Mets.  Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti discussed the trade with MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters, saying that the playing time split between Plawecki and Roberto Perez likely wouldn’t be determined until Spring Training, though Antonetti feels Perez would likely get the majority of at-bats and youngster Eric Haase will still be in the mix.  “We felt this was an opportunity to acquire another Major League catcher that could help absorb some of the burden in losing Yan [Gomes],” Antonetti said.  He also hinted at more potential deals in the coming weeks, noting “conversations throughout the league have intensified” since the start of January.

AL Central Notes: Indians, Cruz, Tigers

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The chances of the Indians trading one of Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer “seem to diminish by the day,” writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in his latest notes column (subscription required). Rosenthal writes that Cleveland is instead looking at affordable options to round out the back end of the roster more than moving either of the oft-rumored-to-be-available righties. As MLBTR’s Ty Bradley recently noted in profiling the remaining needs of the American League Central’s five teams, the Indians could still use some outfield upgrades as well as help in the bullpen and behind the plate. Adding some veteran versatility for the bench could also prove prudent in Cleveland, where Jordan Luplow, out-of-options Max Moroff and non-roster invitee Mike Freeman are currently among the candidates for bench roles.

Elsewhere in the American League Central…

  • The Twins obviously plan to use Nelson Cruz primarily as a designated hitter, but manager Rocco Baldelli at least raised the possibility that Cruz could see occasional outfield work in 2019, as Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. “We’re going to work with him and have a lot of conversations about how he is doing,” said Baldelli. “How he feels. How he prepares for the season to play in the outfield.” Presumably, Cruz would be more of an emergency option or perhaps an option in National League parks during interleague play. Minnesota, after all, isn’t short on young, athletic outfield options with Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler currently in line for the bulk of the corner outfield work, plus Byron Buxton and Jake Cave in the center field mix. Miller also quotes Cruz on his decision to sign in Minnesota, which was influenced in part by his familiarity with GM Thad Levine and former Orioles teammate/new Twins second baseman Jonathan Schoop. Meanwhile, Rosenthal adds that Cruz did receive two-year offers in free agency, but none that would’ve come close to the $26MM he can earn if the Twins exercise his 2020 option. The Rays and Astros were among the other teams prominently linked to Cruz in free agency.
  • Chris McCosky of the Detroit News chats with Tigers prospect Bryan Garcia, who is now 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery and is nearing a return to the mound. As McCosky notes, the Detroit farm system looks dramatically different now than it did a year ago, when Garcia was ranked among the organization’s more promising young arms. MLB.com still ranks Garcia as the Tigers’ No. 22 farmhand, but he’s been leapfrogged by numerous pitchers over the course of the year he missed. None of that bothers Garcia, who discusses his decision to undergo surgery, his mindset during rehab and his 2019 outlook at lengthy with McCosky. A sixth-rounder in 2016, Garcia enjoyed a meteoric rise through Detroit’s system in ’17, ascending from Low-A to Triple-A and amassing 55 innings of 2.13 ERA ball with 12.8 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 along the way. Tigers VP of player development Dave Littlefield tells McCosky that the goal is for Garcia to be pitching competitively by May. The 23-year-old could well emerge as a ’pen option in Detroit in late 2019 or in 2020, though Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote last May that Garcia could also have the stuff to start.

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