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Trevor Bauer

Latest On Trevor Bauer

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2021 at 9:24pm CDT

JAN. 22, 9:24pm: The Twins are not in the race after all, Rosenthal reports.

8:39pm: The Mets’ interest in Bauer “has become more focused” since the Blue Jays agreed to sign Springer, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Jays are “believed” to still be in the running, however, and the same goes for the Dodgers and Twins. There’s no word on whether the Angels remain a possibility.

JAN. 21: It’s “believed” that the Mets and Angels have the best chance to land Bauer, per Feinsand. Meanwhile, despite the interest the Dodgers have shown in Bauer, it “still feels like a long shot to most industry sources” that he will end up with them, Feinsand writes.

JAN. 20: It appears the Dodgers have entered the market for top free agent hurler Trevor Bauer. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan connected the two sides (Twitter link), with Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) adding further detail to the situation.

At the moment, all that’s known is that the L.A. ballclub has initiated contact with Bauer’s camp and that the team’s interest is in a shorter-term pact. Both of those nuggets of information fail to surprise.

It has long felt inevitable that we’d see a connection between the SoCal native and the reigning world champs. Indeed, that’s just the outcome MLBTR prognosticated would ultimately come to fruition. Among other things, Bauer has expressed an inclination to pursue shorter-term, higher-AAV contract scenarios of the sort that the Dodgers have dangled to other premium players.

That’s not to say Bauer is sure to wear Dodger blue. The other team in Los Angeles remains a factor, among quite a few others. With some truly astronomical sums potentially in play, anything could still happen.

Bauer’s willingness to entertain creative offers also helps keep the door open to a variety of organizations. It may well be possible to make a competitive pitch without committing to an uncomfortably long guarantee.

For instance, the Blue Jays have already taken on a lengthy deal this winter by signing George Springer, perhaps reducing their appetite for another. But the Toronto organization may yet attempt to lure Bauer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes on Twitter. Whether or not that potential effort would be based around a shorter term isn’t clear, but it’s certainly one potential avenue.

The Springer contract has surely buoyed Bauer’s own hopes for a monster deal — whether he chooses to maximize total guarantee or his annual salary. Amid so much uncertainty, a hefty $150MM pact makes clear that teams still have serious money to commit to payroll when they so choose.

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Does Trevor Bauer Have A Case For Gerrit Cole’s AAV?

By Tim Dierkes | January 12, 2021 at 10:25pm CDT

In an article yesterday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand made a statistical case that Trevor Bauer’s recent body of work justifies him matching or exceeding the record $36MM average annual value Gerrit Cole received in December 2019.  While it may not be true that Cole and Bauer currently have beef, we can at least say the former UCLA teammates once had a rivalry.  Beating Cole’s AAV record would be a major feat for Bauer and agent Rachel Luba.  But as Homer Simpson once said, “Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent.  Forfty percent of all people know that.”  So I set out to see how Feinsand’s claims hold up.

Bauer has had an up-and-down career.  Since 2017, his season ERAs are 4.19, 2.21, 4.48, and 1.73.  Feinsand, who also included Stephen Strasburg in his comparison, mainly focused on each pitcher’s final 90 starts heading into free agency.  Why 90?  Well, a three-season lookback is pretty standard.  A 90-start lookback also happens to be quite convenient for Bauer, as it excludes his rough first half of 2017.

One thing I did not see in Feinsand’s article was any form of a strikeout rate, walk rate, or groundball rate.  Those are the things pitchers do that actually correlate year-to-year.  So here’s that look, with the additional info.  We’ll remove Strasburg, since the question is whether Bauer is worthy of Cole’s AAV record.  (App users can click here to see the 90-start comparison).

Cole had better strikeout and walk rates in his previous 90 starts, which is more important than the ERA difference.  But I was also thinking it’s strange to do a comparison that includes 25 starts from Cole’s 2017 season, his last with the Pirates.  Upon joining the Astros in a January 2018 trade, Cole famously changed his pitch mix and approach, to drastically improved results.  So how would a Bauer-Cole comparison look over the previous 60 starts?  (App users can click here to see the 60-start comparison).

Even though this window excludes Cole’s first five starts of 2018, which were dominant, it further accentuates the differences between the two hurlers.  They’re both strikeout pitchers.  But what Cole did in his walk year – a 39.9 K% – is literally the best in baseball history for a pitcher with at least 100 innings (Cole pitched 212 1/3).  Bauer’s walk year strikeout rate of 36% was historic in its own right – seventh all-time for a qualified starter – but it was only 11 starts due to the 60-game season.  That brings us to one last comparison, one that Feinsand made of each pitcher’s best 11 starts in their walk year (app users click here):

Both dominant stretches, yet Cole’s was clearly better.  If we’re comparing post-2019 Cole to current Trevor Bauer, we can state the following:

  • Cole averaged 97.2 miles per hour on his fastball in his walk year.  Bauer averaged 93.5.
  • On a related note, while both are strong strikeout pitchers, Cole was significantly better for longer.
  • Cole had better control than Bauer.
  • Cole was dominant in two full, consecutive seasons leading up to free agency.  Bauer has never been dominant in two consecutive seasons.
  • Bauer will be 234 days older on 4-1-21 than Cole was on 4-1-20.

On the merits of statistics, I don’t see how one can say that Bauer is better than Cole and therefore deserves a higher AAV.  Feinsand makes a good point, though: if Bauer limits himself to an artificially shorter contract, his AAV should go up from where it would have been had he maxed out the years.  But what is Bauer’s actual years maximum, assuming he won’t take an artificially low AAV like Bryce Harper did?

Given the current state of baseball economics, I’d suggest six.  So to bring enhanced AAVs into play as a reward for an artificially short term, Bauer would probably have to sign for four or fewer years.  Remember, the Dodgers reportedly offered Harper a $45MM AAV on a four-year term.  Instead, he took a $25MM AAV on a 13-year term.

There are several reasons why the Bauer-Cole comparison actually doesn’t matter.  The first is the state of the market in December 2019 compared to the current state of affairs.  All 30 teams brought in significantly smaller amounts of revenue in 2020 than in 2019.  Most of the best free agents remain unsigned, but the ones that did sign exceeded expectations.  It’s an odd combination.  But it’s fair to say market conditions are worse for Bauer than they were for Cole.

The second reason contract comps don’t matter is that free agency is a bidding war.  The goal of every team targeting a free agent is to get that player for as little as possible.  Agents don’t convince teams to spend more money by holding up other free agent contracts from years past.  Generally speaking, teams run circles around agents in statistical chops, anyway.  It’s certainly possible that Luba will be able to get a couple of teams to bid irrationally on Bauer, but it won’t be because of what Cole received.

The last point is that teams don’t pay free agents for what they have done; they pay for what they expect the player to do in the future over the life of the contract.  Again, we have to defer to teams’ superior abilities to forecast what Bauer will do.  They’ll use advanced stats, Statcast data, health history, and proprietary information we’ll never see.  They won’t use ERA, which generally has a year-to-year correlation around 0.4.  But that’s how a team’s GM will approach it.  Signing Bauer is an ownership-level decision, and an owner is unlikely to analyze a potential signing with the same sophistication as the GM.

As Bauer once put it, he and Cole are “intertwined forever.”  The UCLA teammates were drafted two picks apart in 2011 and made their way to MLB free agency coming off fantastic walk years.  But as I see it, Bauer’s current position falls short of where Cole stood when he hit the market in 2019.

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Angels Notes: Remaining Needs, Coaching Staff

By Connor Byrne | January 12, 2021 at 5:28pm CDT

The Angels were busy earlier this offseason in acquiring a pair of relievers – Raisel Iglesias and Alex Claudio – as well as shortstop Jose Iglesias, but things have slowed to a crawl for the team in recent weeks. It’s not for lack of effort by new general manager Perry Minasian, who hopes Major League Baseball’s glacial offseason picks up the pace. “It’s been a different offseason,” Minasian said on Monday, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. “It seems like there’s been less activity. We’ve been one of the more active teams and it seems like we haven’t done anything in a year.”

“I have been as active as I can be,” added Minasian, who still intends to address the team’s starting rotation, according to Fletcher. So far, the Angels haven’t been able to strengthen that group, though Minasian has been working on it. Ideally, the Angels will land the top free agent available – Southern California native and reigning NL Cy Young-winning right-hander Trevor Bauer – and Fletcher writes the two sides figure to have “mutual interest.” It’s unclear how serious that interest is on either side, however, Fletcher notes.

Here’s more on the Angels…

  • Beyond upgrading his team’s rotation, Minasian said (via Fletcher) he’s on the hunt for depth at catcher and in the outfield. That isn’t surprising in either case, particularly behind the plate. The Angels’ only 40-man catchers are Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom (Stassi’s on the mend from September hip surgery), and the team has shown interest this month in acquiring the Cubs’ Willson Contreras. Meanwhile, aside from center fielder Mike Trout, the outfield is something of a question mark. Justin Upton and Jo Adell had difficult years in 2020, while Taylor Ward failed to hit a home run in 102 plate appearances (though his overall numbers were still respectable). Jared Walsh had a brilliant year with the bat, but he saw little time in the outfield.
  • The Angels announced Monday that Bruce Hines will serve as their first base coach and outfield instructor in 2021. He’s replacing Jesus Feliciano, who left the team for personal reasons. There is already a great deal of familiarity between the franchise and Hines, as he previously combined for 23 years with the Angels in various scouting and coaching roles. That included a stint as their first base coach in 1991.
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Trevor Bauer Discusses Free Agency

By Mark Polishuk | January 10, 2021 at 10:22pm CDT

Trevor Bauer has relied heavily on social media to keep fans aware of his trip through free agency, and the right-hander shared his latest thoughts in a new YouTube video detailing his top priorities in finding a new team.  Some of these sentiments have been shared by Bauer in past interviews, though it is certainly worth checking in to see what the offseason’s top free agent is looking for, particularly since the free agent market as a whole has yet to really develop as we approach the middle of January.

To begin with, Bauer says that geography and market size aren’t big factors in his decision-making process.  The Los Angeles native seemingly doesn’t mind one way or the other about playing close to home, and as Bauer points out, his online presence allows him to publicize himself and his brand from anywhere in North America, no matter the size of his next team’s media market.

What is important, however, is that team’s willingness to allow Bauer to continue his attempts at growing a brand and being more visible, as well as a willingness to include teammates in those endeavors (if they so choose) as part of his efforts to grow broader interest in baseball.  It all ties into Bauer’s desire for “a partnership” with his next team, and a two-way effort by both sides.

In regards to his personal training methods and data-driven approach, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner wants “to be able to be with an organization that values those things, that can give me information that I can learn from and increase my knowledge base and my understanding of the game.  But I also want an organization that’s open to some of the things that I’m doing and can learn from me.”

For instance, as it relates to Bauer’s oft-stated desire to pitch every fourth day, he isn’t insistent that his team deploy him in such a fashion, but simply that the team be open to seriously considering the possibility.  Naturally, Bauer’s plan will hinge on how his pitching on shorter rest could impact the rest of a rotation — “I don’t want to ever take away from my fellow players’ ability to go out and do their job to the best of their ability,” Bauer said, since the point is to get “everybody performing at a higher level.”

Since Bauer feels he’ll be “as good or better” pitching on three days’ rest, however, he sees this ability as a plus to a pitching staff.  Depending on a team’s needs, Bauer pitching more often could help address multiple situations, as he notes that it could help other pitchers who perform better with more rest, or pitchers who are on innings limits.

Particularly coming off an abbreviated 2020 season and questions about how many pitchers will now have to rebuild arm strength for a longer 2021 campaign, Bauer’s argument is certainly persuasive.  He also said that the Reds, his former team, were “great about actually having that discussion” about potentially making more frequent starts in 2020, though Bauer ended up pitching only once last season on three days’ rest (delivering one of his best outings of the year).

Aside from mentioning pitching for the Reds, Indians, and Diamondbacks over his career, Bauer didn’t provide any specifics about particular teams who might be candidates to sign him, or any details about his contractual demands, whether they be longer-term or shorter-term deals.  He restated that he wants to play for a team that will make an aggressive push to contend every season (“My career is too short to really be part of a rebuilding window.  I just don’t want to do that.”) and he wants “to be fairly compensated for my value,” which covers both what he offers a team based on past track record and what he’ll offer going forward in projected future performance.

Broadly, Bauer has a simple overall goal for the next step of his career: “I want to be happy.”  While quite probably not a sign that Bauer is exploring a return to Cincinnati or Cleveland, Bauer did say that over “the last couple of years…I’ve enjoyed playing baseball a lot more than I have earlier in my professional career.  I don’t want to go back to being miserable playing the game I love.”

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Trevor Bauer

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Trevor Bauer Had Meeting With Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | January 1, 2021 at 10:55pm CDT

In the latest chapter of Trevor Bauer’s unconventional trip through free agency, the right-hander revealed in a video that he had a call set to talk with the Blue Jays — specifically mentioning that he planned to talk with their pitching coach (Pete Walker) and high performance coach (presumably VP of high performance Angus Mugford).

While many fans have had some fun with the fact that the Blue Jays have been linked to virtually every free agent on the market this winter, Bauer’s meeting with them is still plenty notable. Few clubs are expected to be major spenders this winter, but Toronto is among the likeliest teams to sign a major free agent. The Blue Jays’ current $84MM projected payroll (via FanGraphs/Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez) is about half the franchise-record $163MM, set back in 2017.

Beyond that flexibility, the Toronto front office — headed up by president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins — is quite familiar with Bauer. Both Atkins and Shapiro were in the Indians organization when Cleveland originally acquired Bauer from the Diamondbacks; Shapiro was the team’s president at that point and Atkins the director of player development.

Among top-tier free agents, the Blue Jays have been most prominently linked to outfielder George Springer in recent weeks. The Jays reported to be one of two finalists to sign Springer. The Mets, the other apparent Springer finalist, have been tied to Bauer in their own right, although Springer is said to be New York’s priority at this time.

Toronto’s current rotation features Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling and highly touted 24-year-old Nate Pearson. Penciling Bauer into that mix alongside Ryu would give them a formidable one-two punch atop the rotation with plenty of upside behind them. Ryu is coming off consecutive Top 3 finishes in Cy Young voting, while Bauer of course won the National League Cy Young Award in 2020.

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Latest On Trevor Bauer

By Steve Adams,Tim Dierkes and Connor Byrne | December 30, 2020 at 6:13pm CDT

Right-handed ace Trevor Bauer has been the No. 1 free agent on the market since it opened almost two months ago, though not much has been said about the type of contract he’s seeking. Now, though, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that teams interested in Bauer “suggest” he’s looking for a five- to six-year accord worth $36MM to $40MM per season.

The always outspoken Bauer unsurprisingly chimed in, replying to Heyman (on Twitter): “I’m learning so much about my free agency from your tweets!” While Bauer and agent Rachel Luba may hope to control the flow of information regarding the 2020 NL Cy Young winner’s free agency, that may prove impossible given the number of team employees privy to conversations.

There was some back and forth between Heyman and Luba/Bauer on Twitter. However, neither Luba nor Bauer chose to directly address Heyman’s report.

At the end of the day, the matter of Bauer’s asking price was largely sidestepped. And setting aside the pointed exchange between the involved parties, that’s par for the course for any player/agent combo when reports on asking price surface. It’s not in the best interest of Bauer or Luba to tip their hand one way or another regarding contractual expectations. Luba has declined to do so in previous appearances on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, as one would expect. Nothing about this, save for the social media finger-pointing, is atypical.

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Mets Looking Into Tomoyuki Sugano

By Steve Adams | December 22, 2020 at 10:42am CDT

The Mets are “looking into” right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano as they seek to upgrade their rotation, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sugano was posted for MLB clubs earlier this month, and teams have until Jan. 7 to complete a contract with him before that posting window expires.

New York has been prominently connected to Trevor Bauer as a potential free-agent target, but numerous reports have indicated over the past week-plus that George Springer is the team’s primary focus at the moment. Sherman agrees, calling Springer the “centerpiece” of their offseason plans. As such, an expectation has emerged that the Mets will look to the second tier of starting pitchers in their search to augment their rotation, and the 31-year-old Sugano is arguably the best of the bunch.

[Related: Yomiuri Giants Post Tomoyuki Sugano For MLB Clubs]

One of the premier pitchers in Japan, Sugano is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — Nippon Professional Baseball’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award. After a “down” 2019 season that saw him log a 3.89 ERA, Sugano rebounded with 137 1/3 innings of 1.97 ERA ball in 2020, averaging 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Dating back to the 2015 season, Sugano has thrown more than 1000 innings with a 2.19 ERA while averaging better than eight strikeouts and fewer than two walks per nine frames. Of note, Sherman writes that large-market teams may have the upper hand in pursuing Sugano, as NPB’s Giants are viewed as the “Yankees of Japan,” playing their home games at the famed Tokyo Dome.

It’s not clear just what type of arrangement Sugano will command on the open market, but a multi-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary seems reasonable to anticipate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a two-year, $24MM deal in his updated free-agent rankings and contract predictions. If a team believes Sugano to be closer to a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in MLB, it’s certainly possible that he could secure a third year or a hike on that annual salary.

The Mets, of course, have Jacob deGrom atop their rotation and will also rely on Marcus Stroman after the righty accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Rookie David Peterson was impressive in a limited 2020 debut, and lefty Steven Matz was also tendered a contract despite a recent downturn in his production. Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, will be out until this coming summer due to Tommy John surgery.

Emboldened by new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are a clear win-now team under the watch of returning president Sandy Alderson and newly hired GM Jared Porter. With James McCann and Trevor May already signed to multi-year deals, further additions are a given. If the plan is indeed to add a second-tier arm and make Springer the focus, then Sugano would join Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Corey Kluber among the best remaining rotation options on the open market.

To this point in his posting window, Sugano has also been connected to the Red Sox, the Rangers and the Blue Jays. Given his stature in Japan, it’s all but certain that Sugano will receive interest from the majority of pitching-needy clubs who are willing to spend in the wake of this year’s revenue losses. In addition to the money owed to Sugano on a new contract, the team that signs him will owe a release fee to NPB’s Giants. That fee is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter (including option years, incentives, etc.).

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Latest Rumblings On Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer

By Steve Adams | December 18, 2020 at 10:59pm CDT

The Padres are among the clubs with interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Fansided’s Robert Murray reports, although there’s no indication that the two sides have engaged in meaningful discussions to this point.

Gray’s name has persistently popped up in the rumor mill this winter, and while Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has sought to downplay Gray chatter as a matter of performing due diligence, it’s hard not to place some extra stock in the Gray rumblings amid the backdrop of several cost-cutting moves out of Cincinnati. The Reds surprisingly non-tendered right-hander Archie Bradley just months after acquiring him in a deadline trade, despite the fact that he pitched well for them and was due a raise on a team-friendly $4.1MM salary. They also cut loose their other primary deadline pickup, outfielder Brian Goodwin, and catcher Curt Casali. Goodwin had struggled in Cincinnati, but Casali turned in a solid 2020 season.

Perhaps most surprising was the trade that sent closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels in exchange for righty Noe Ramirez and minor league infielder Leo Rivas. It was a marginal return, at best, on a quality late-inning reliever whose $9.125MM salary isn’t exactly exorbitant. Following both the Bradley non-tender and the Iglesias trade, Krall has spoken of reallocating those resources. He did so again this week in an appearance on MLB Network’s MLB Now (video link):

“I think we’ve done some things to reallocate our resources within the organization, and we’re just trying to figure out what’s the best thing we can do for our organization moving forward,” said Krall.

Some Reds fans may hope to see the team utilize those savings for a run at retaining Trevor Bauer, but that may not be likely. In that MLB Now spot, Krall discussed “adding pitching depth, whether it’s rotation depth with the loss of Trevor Bauer.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added further context today, tweeting that the Reds consider Bauer to be beyond their price range and adding that Bauer “will be pitching elsewhere” in 2021. It obviously takes just one change of heart from ownership to push for a deal to come together, but that’s a rather bleak characterization of where things stand with regard to their chances of retaining the reigning NL Cy Young winner.

Turning back to Gray, the match between the Reds and Padres is a sensible one on paper but perhaps not so much in practice. The Friars thought they were acquiring multiple years of a high-end rotation option when picking up Mike Clevinger prior to the trade deadline, but he’s now sidelined for all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.

That leaves a hole at the top of the rotation, but Murray suggests that even Gray’s $10MM salary might be outside San Diego’s comfort zone at this point. Surely, that’s all the more true given that they’d have to trade away considerable young talent to pry Gray away; even if the Reds are seeking to cut costs, it’s hard to imagine them taking a weak return on Gray when the market for starting pitching has generally been a healthy one to this point.

The Padres already owe $86.05MM to the combination of Manny Machado, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Clevinger. They still owe arbitration raises to Tommy Pham, Zach Davies, Dinelson Lamet, Emilio Pagan and Dan Altavilla.

For a Padres club intent on paring back last year’s $150MM payroll to some extent, taking on $10MM in salary might not work unless other payroll can be jettisoned elsewhere. And as Murray points out, there would probably be questions about reuniting Gray with pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who coached Gray during an unsuccessful tenure in the Bronx.

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NL West Notes: Bauer, Giants, D’Backs, Arenado

By Mark Polishuk | December 13, 2020 at 9:04pm CDT

“The Giants have discussed” signing Trevor Bauer, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, though this isn’t necessarily indicative of a full-fledged pursuit since “they discuss the top free agents every year.”  There are many reasons Bauer would make sense for the Giants, as Shea illustrates in his pros and cons piece, including the point that Bauer might represent a better upgrade than any of the pitching options available in the 2021-22 free agent market.

However, Shea ultimately opines that Bauer wouldn’t be an ideal fit “for a team that’s not close to championship caliber and is waiting for its top prospects to emerge over the next couple of years.”  The Giants certainly face an uphill battle in going against the Dodgers and the Padres in their division alone, though since San Francisco has to some extent overachieved over the last two seasons even while overhauling the roster, I would argue that the Giants could position themselves more firmly into the wild card hunt with some pitching upgrades, and Bauer would certainly qualify in that regard.  For what it’s worth, Bauer’s most recent YouTube video listed Giants fans fourth on his list of the fanbases that have done the best job of trying to sell him on joining their team.

More from the NL West…

  • The bulk of the Diamondbacks’ talks with other teams has focused on pitching, with rival clubs showing interest in Arizona’s starters.  The D’Backs have something of a surplus of rotation options on paper, with a projected starting five of Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Caleb Smith, Merrill Kelly ahead of other potential depth arms like Taylor Clarke, Alex Young or prospect Corbin Martin.  Speaking to MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and other reporters, D’Backs general manager Mike Hazen said “I think we have to be in a position to listen to what people have to say” in terms of trade offers, though “I think we’re somewhat reluctant to talk about pitching, just because of our feeling on the amount of pitching we’re going to need.”  Kelly is the most obvious question mark since he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in September, though the right-hander was very pleased with his recovery process as of November.  Beyond Kelly, Bumgarner and Weaver each struggled last season, and while the Diamondbacks are hopeful both can bounce back, the club would surely like to have more depth on hand just in case.
  • What would Nolan Arenado earn if he was a free agent this winter?  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) floated the question to some evaluators in the wake of Arenado’s disappointing 2020 season, and the results were still pretty strong — a deal worth somewhere between $100MM-$125MM.  This offers some idea that Arenado’s 2020 numbers “will likely be treated as an outlier by any interested teams” in trade talks, but also of how much of Arenado’s actual contract (six years and $199MM remaining, with an opt-out after the 2021 season) the Rockies could be asked to cover to accommodate a deal.  It just adds another layer of difficulty to any possibility that Arenado could be traded this offseason, since it seems unlikely that the Rox would be okay with eating that much money to move a player they surely consider a prize trade asset.
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Mets Notes: Odorizzi, Springer, Bauer, Owens, Shreve

By Mark Polishuk | December 5, 2020 at 11:11am CDT

The Mets were linked to Jake Odorizzi’s market last month, though the team doesn’t appear to be one of the front-runners for the right-hander’s services, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Odorizzi “is believed to be much more engaged with other teams right now.”  We heard yesterday that the Twins were also falling behind in the race to sign Odorizzi, which could potentially mean good news for the Giants and Blue Jays — the other two teams cited as having interest in Odorizzi back in November.

San Francisco and Toronto are two of the teams considered to be most fervently exploring the pitching market thus far, with Sherman also listing the Padres, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Angels as being particularly keen on adding arms.  It’s probably safe to guess that at least a couple of those teams have also checked in on Odorizzi, who was projected by MLBTR to receive a three-year, $39MM free agent deal.

More from Citi Field…

  • Also from Sherman, he opines that the Mets’ pitching plans could be altered by what happens with Trevor Bauer, as Bauer and George Springer appear to be the team’s top targets.  “It is possible they are planning to make just one substantial purchase,” Sherman writes, so the Mets could turn towards Odorizzi or other pitchers if Springer is signed rather than Bauer.  A trade target like Reds right-hander Sonny Gray could also be explored, with Sherman theorizing that Amed Rosario could interest a Cincinnati team known to be looking for shortstop help.
  • After speculation earlier in the offseason that Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens could be a candidate to join the Mets, the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reports that the Mets have, at least, “held internal discussions” about Owens, though it isn’t known if Owens has actually interviewed for the team’s general manager vacancy.  Owens has a prior relationship with Mets president Sandy Alderson, as Alderson worked as a senior advisor to the Oakland front office for the last two seasons before returning to the Mets.
  • Chasen Shreve was non-tendered by the Mets prior to Wednesday’s deadline, and MLBTR’s arbitration projections had Shreve in line for an arbitration salary of between $800K and $1.1MM.  However, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that minor league deal Shreve signed with the Mets last offseason paid the left-hander a $1.5MM base salary upon reaching the majors, so Shreve’s arbitration number would have been closer to $2MM.  While not a major financial difference for a reliever who pitched pretty well in 2020, DiComo figures the Mets believe they can find either a less-expensive pitcher who can match or better Shreve’s 2020 performance, or they’re saving money for a bigger-ticket addition.  Shreve was also out of options, which undoubtedly also factored into New York’s non-tender decision.
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Billy Owens Chasen Shreve George Springer Jake Odorizzi New York Mets Notes Oakland Athletics Trevor Bauer

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