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Trevor Bauer

MLB, MLBPA Agree To Extend Trevor Bauer’s Administrative Leave Through Postseason

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have agreed to extend the administrative leave of Dodgers right-hander Trevor Bauer through the end of the World Series, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter thread). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggested earlier this morning that Bauer’s leave was likely to be extended through season’s end.

The agreement between the league and the players’ union does not come in the wake of new information and is largely a procedural move. Bauer hasn’t pitched in a game since late June and would’ve been unlikely to have sufficient time to ramp up again even if a resolution in his case appeared near. There’s no indication, however, that a resolution is on the horizon.

A Los Angeles judge recently denied a permanent restraining order to the woman who has accused Bauer of sexually assaulting her, although that was a civic hearing that is separate from the still-ongoing criminal investigation. The judge ruled that Bauer did not pose a future threat to the alleged victim, but that ruling was not a determination of criminal culpability (or lack thereof).

Criminal charges have not yet been filed against Bauer, nor has he been declared guilty or not guilty. The Pasadena Police recently turned over its findings to the Los Angeles County District Attorney, whose office is still reviewing all of the evidence. Notably, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets that the DA’s office has not yet determined whether criminal charges will formally be filed.

Major League Baseball is in the midst of its own investigation into these allegations as well as a separate set of accusations from an Ohio woman, stemming from an alleged incident last summer. Commissioner Rob Manfred has the ability to suspend Bauer even if criminal charges are not brought forth. Presumably, the league is waiting on the criminal investigation into Bauer to play out before announcing its own decision.

Bauer was originally placed on paid administrative leave back on July 2. It’s not a punitive measure but is instead implemented to allow Major League Baseball to look into incidents that fall under the purview of the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy agreed upon by MLB and the MLBPA. Administrative leave is typically only extended in seven-day increments and must be jointly agreed upon by the league and the union. The two parties have agreed to extend Bauer’s leave each Friday since his original leave was announced, but given the proximity to the end of the regular season and the ongoing nature of investigations, an agreement has now been reached to formally close the book on his 2021 season.

Pasadena Police Turn Over Trevor Bauer Investigation To District Attorney’s Office

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The Pasadena Police Department has presented the results of its investigation into sexual assault allegations made against Dodgers starter Trevor Bauer over to the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office, a police spokeswoman told reporters (including Steve Henson of the Los Angeles Times and Alden González of ESPN). The district attorney’s office will review the findings and determine whether criminal charges are warranted.

Pasadena police have been investigating the allegations against Bauer at least since the time they were made public in late June. It is unclear how long the DA’s office will take to decide whether to move forward with the case.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the criminal investigation is distinct from the alleged victim’s pursuit of a permanent restraining order against Bauer, which was denied by a Los Angeles County Superior Court judge last week. The judge’s determination in that proceeding was that Bauer does not pose any continued threat to the accuser. Those proceedings were not to determine if Bauer should face any criminal culpability.

Bauer has been on paid administrative leave since July 2 while MLB conducts its own investigation. MLB and the MLB Players Association jointly agreed to extend that leave through September 3, Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported this morning. Under the terms of the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, MLB has the authority to impose discipline regardless of whether criminal charges are ultimately filed.

Judge Denies Request For Permanent Restraining Order Against Trevor Bauer

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5:11 pm: As expected, Bauer’s administrative leave has been extended through August 27, per various reporters (including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times).

3:15 pm: Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Dianna Gould-Saltman issued a ruling today denying a long-term restraining order to the woman who has accused Trevor Bauer of sexual assault, per Steve Henson of the Los Angeles Times. The ruling brings to a close the civil hearing that has been ongoing throughout the current week.

Bauer did not testify at this week’s hearing, instead invoking his fifth amendment rights. He’s still the subject of an ongoing criminal investigation and of an investigation under Major League Baseball’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Bauer is currently on paid administrative leave, which is set to expire tomorrow. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that with criminal and MLB investigations still ongoing, that leave will likely once again be extended by mutual agreement between MLB and the Players Association.

There are several key points to be emphasized with regard to where things stand at present. As previously noted, Bauer is still the subject of multiple investigations. Today’s ruling was neither a declaration of Bauer’s innocence nor guilt with regard to the woman’s allegations. Rather, it was a ruling from the court that Bauer does not pose a continued threat to the alleged victim. Similarly, the determination that the accuser does not require long-term protection against Bauer is not legally reflective of his guilt or innocence; the alleged victim and the district attorney can still bring forth charges pursuant to Bauer’s purported actions.

Just as the absence of a restraining order does not preclude criminal charges, the ruling also does not preclude a suspension from commissioner Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball. The league’s sexual assault policy gives Manfred the power to implement a suspension even in the absence of criminal charges, as we’ve seen on numerous occasions where domestic violence charges were dropped by the alleged victims. It’s also unclear whether newly surfaced allegations from a woman in Ohio that date back to last summer will be factored into the league’s decision on any punitive measures against Bauer.

While today’s ruling represents a notable step in the process, it does not bring about anything in the way of resolution for Bauer or the Dodgers. The pitcher’s long-term outlook remains unclear, and the league could well wait until the criminal investigation (and any subsequent charges, if pressed) is resolved before determining whether to levy its own suspension.

Trevor Bauer Was Subject Of Previous Protection Order

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Trevor Bauer was the subject of an ex parte temporary civil stalking protection order sought by and granted to an Ohio woman in June of 2020, according to a report by Gus Garcia-Roberts and Molly Hensley-Clancy of The Washington Post. The order was in effect until dismissed by the petitioner that July 23. According to the Post’s report:

“An Ohio woman sought the order in June 2020 after repeated threats from the then-Cincinnati Reds pitcher, according to her lawyer and records separately obtained by The Post. Photographs independently obtained by The Post also show bruises on the woman’s face and blood in her eyes, which her attorney said was caused by Bauer punching and choking her during sex without consent. Those allegations are similar to ones made by a woman in Los Angeles this summer when she applied for a temporary restraining order.”

The Post report details an alleged incident from 2017, when Bauer was with the Indians.  The authors elaborate:

“A police report obtained by The Post shows that in 2017, during an incident at Bauer’s apartment, the Ohio woman attempted to show officers photos of injuries to her eyes that she said were caused by Bauer, who played for Cleveland at the time.” The woman’s attorney tells the Post she specified to police at the time that those injuries were the alleged result of Bauer choking her without consent during sex. According to the Post, Bauer was the one who initially called police that night, telling officers the woman had assaulted him — an allegation she denied. Additionally:

“The Post also obtained copies of messages Bauer allegedly sent the woman, which her lawyers said prompted her to seek an order of protection. ’I don’t feel like spending time in jail for killing someone,’ reads one. ’And that’s what would happen if I saw you again.'” The Post also obtained photos of injuries the woman sustained, which her lawyer tells The Post she says “were from Bauer striking her without her consent during sex in 2018,” in the words of the Post writers.

The ex parte nature of the order indicates it was granted without hearing from Bauer’s side. (That’s also true of the temporary restraining order granted against Bauer in California to which the Post alluded). Ohio law allows petitioners to obtain a restraining order against individuals who have caused the petitioner to believe they “will cause physical harm to the other person or a family or household member of the other person or cause mental distress to the other person or a family or household member of the other person,” so long as the petitioner can demonstrate good cause — including, but not limited to, a threat of bodily harm. Court records don’t specify any allegations made against Bauer at that hearing.

MLB placed Bauer on paid administrative leave in July 2021 after the Pasadena Police Department began investigating the assault allegations made by the woman in California. Bauer’s administrative leave period was extended through August 20 this week, an agreement between MLB and the MLB Players Association. The parties are set for a multi-day hearing (during which Bauer will have an opportunity to respond to the woman’s allegations) next week on the status of the California TRO.

Under the terms of the joint MLB-MLBPA Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy, Major League Baseball has the authority to issue discipline regardless of whether criminal charges are ultimately filed.  An MLB spokesperson is quoted in the piece as saying that “MLB takes these and all allegations very seriously,” but that they can’t comment because of the ongoing investigation. The Post reports that an MLB investigator was seeking information related to the 2017 incident in early July.

Chelsea Janes, also of The Washington Post, says that the Dodgers declined to comment on whether or not they were aware of this previous allegation before signing Bauer in February of 2021.  A spokesman for the Indians told the Post the team didn’t have any knowledge of the incident in 2017.

Bauer, on his own Twitter account, addressed the allegations with a statement from himself as well as one from his representatives.  Additionally, “In a statement to The Post, Bauer’s lawyer and agent, Jon Fetterolf, and agent Rachel Luba called the allegations of physical abuse against Bauer ’categorically false.'”

For the full details, read the Washington Post article and Bauer’s response.

Trevor Bauer’s Administrative Leave To Be Extended Through August 13

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AUGUST 5: Bauer’s administrative leave will be extended tomorrow, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). This extension will run through August 13, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter).

JULY 27: The league announced that Bauer’s administrative leave has been extended through August 6.

JULY 26: “A majority of players do not want [Trevor] Bauer back under any circumstances,” writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, who cites “two people with knowledge of Dodgers clubhouse dynamics.”  Bauer’s paid administrative leave from the Dodgers, which the club has previously extended twice, runs through tomorrow.  In late June, news surfaced of an ex parte temporary restraining order a San Diego woman obtained against Bauer after she alleged sexual assault.

Bauer appeared at a court hearing Friday in Los Angeles, which was pushed to August 2 as his attorney seeks more time to prepare based on recently-received medical records and exhibits.  As Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic wrote, the three-day hearing is now set to take place on August 2, 3, and 19.  At least nine witnesses will be called at that hearing, according to Britt Ghiroli, Fabian Ardaya, and Katie Strang of The Athletic.  It’s known that the woman will call three police officers, while Bauer’s side is expected to call three witnesses of their own.  Bauer’s accuser will also testify, and her side will call Bauer as a witness.  Bauer’s attorney has advised him to invoke his fifth amendment rights.

DiGiovanna’s article is worth a read, as a well-done overview of where the Bauer situation stands at present and how he came to be a member of the Dodgers.  It’s notable that DiGiovanna describes Bauer as a “pariah in his own clubhouse,” as his teammates haven’t spoken publicly on the topic.  In the opinion of the L.A. Times scribe, Bauer’s entire career is in jeopardy.

The timing of a potential unpaid suspension by MLB remains unknown, as they investigate the allegations against Bauer on a parallel track with the Pasadena Police Department.

MLB Places Trevor Bauer On Administrative Leave

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July 14: MLB and the MLBPA have agreed to extend Bauer’s administrative leave period through July 27, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

July 8: Major League Baseball and the union have agreed to extend Bauer’s leave by another seven days, the league announced.

July 2: Major League Baseball announced in a press release that Bauer has been placed on administrative leave:

MLB’s investigation into the allegations made against Trevor Bauer is ongoing. While no determination in the case has been made, we have made the decision to place Mr. Bauer on seven-day administrative leave effective immediately. MLB continues to collect information in our ongoing investigation concurrent with the Pasadena Police Department’s active criminal investigation. We will comment further at the appropriate time.

Placement on administrative leave is not a disciplinary action, and — as MLB’s statement acknowledges — does not reflect any finding of the league’s investigation. Players placed on administrative leave continue to be paid and to accumulate Major League service time. This is the most common step for the league to take while players are investigated under the league’s domestic violence policy.

MLB has unilateral authority to place players accused of a violation of the policy on seven-day administrative leave. Any further administrative leave placements, which would take effect in seven-day increments, have to be consented to by the MLB Players Association.*

June 30: The particulars of the 67-page ex parte restraining order are chronicled by Brittany Ghiroli and Katie Strang of The Athletic. Bauer and his representatives will have an opportunity to respond to the allegations during a formal hearing scheduled for July 23. Readers are warned that the piece contains many graphic and disturbing allegations.

June 29, 9:45pm: A spokesperson for the Pasadena Police Department confirmed they’re investigating the allegation against Bauer, Janes relays.

8:28 pm: Dodgers star Trevor Bauer is being investigated by the Pasadena Police Department after a woman accused him of assault, reports TMZ Sports. The alleged victim was granted a temporary ex parte restraining order today, according to TMZ.

Bauer’s agent Jon Fetterolf released a statement denying the allegations (relayed by Jeff Passan of ESPN). Fetterolf claims Bauer and the alleged victim had a pair of consensual sexual encounters and called the allegations contained in the restraining order “baseless.” TMZ reports that Bauer is cooperating with authorities and that the case is likely to be sent to the Los Angeles County District Attorney to determine whether charges are warranted.

Under the terms of the joint MLB-MLBPA Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy, Major League Baseball has the authority to issue discipline regardless of whether criminal charges are ultimately filed. MLB is aware of and looking into the matter, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.

*An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that the administrative leave window can be extended at the discretion of commissioner Rob Manfred. The post has been updated to reflect that any extensions of the administrative leave period beyond the initial seven days must be agreed upon with the MLB Players Association. MLBTR regrets the error.

Will Trevor Bauer Opt Out After The Season?

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When Trevor Bauer signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers back in February, he ensured flexibility by securing opt-outs after the first and second years.  However, the details suggest the contract was designed to keep Bauer in Los Angeles for the first two seasons.

Bauer received a $10MM signing bonus, $5MM of which was paid in March.  The other $5MM will be paid next month.  Beyond that, his 2021 salary is $28MM, but with the quirk that it’s all payable on November 1st of this year.  Here’s what happens if he opts out after the 2021 season, according to Cot’s:

Bauer may opt out of the contract after the 2021 season, receiving a $2M buyout, with Dodgers deferring $20M of 2021 salary without interest, paid in $2M installments each Dec. 1, 2031-40

In other words, if Bauer opts out after this season, he walks away with $12MM in hand, and then has to wait a decade until the Dodgers pay him again.  And even then, it’s $2MM per year for ten years, with no interest.  Your estimates may vary, but that deferred $20MM is worth a lot less than being paid now – most likely half as much.

Opting out after the 2022 season involves none of that deferred money stuff, and throws in a $15MM buyout.  Bauer would have earned $85MM for two seasons, foregoing a mere $17MM for ’23.  Barring injury, jumping out of the contract at this point seems like an easy choice.  As the best pitcher on the free agent market, Bauer landed a very flexible contract.  The Dodgers took on all the downside risk, which is the nature of opt-out clauses.

Bauer started this season strong enough to at least give another look to the possibility of opting out after ’21.  After an outing at San Francisco on May 21st, Bauer’s ERA sat at 1.98 through 12 starts, with a 36.2 K%.  If you had asked me at that point, I’d have said it’d make sense for Bauer to opt out after ’21, even if just to land the same three-year deal all over again.  But on the horizon was a hallmark date with a potentially large effect on Bauer and many other pitchers.  On June 3rd, Bob Nightengale wrote, “Major League Baseball informed owners Thursday that it is engaged in the next phase of league-directed enforcement banning the use of foreign substances by pitchers — which would include 10-day suspensions — two persons with direct knowledge of the meeting told USA TODAY Sports.”  Today, MLB announced its new enforcement plan, which starts Monday.

Through May 31st, Bauer averaged 2840 RPM and 93.8 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball.  In the two starts since, those numbers are 2630 RPM and 94.1 mph.  There are players who have lost more RPM on their four-seamers since the impending crackdown became known, without much velocity change, such as the Indians’ James Karinchak.  But Bauer’s 210 RPM loss on the four-seamer is significant, especially for a guy who throws the pitch 44% of the time.

All we can say definitively is that the average spin rate on Bauer’s four-seam fastball in two starts after June 3rd was 210 RPM lower than the average RPM in a dozen starts before that date.  That the RPM drop was caused by Bauer stopping the usage of foreign substances on the ball or changing what he uses is the implication, but not a fact.  It’d take a further leap to say that Bauer’s mediocre results in those two starts were caused by the RPM drop.  It should be noted that 2630 RPM still ranks sixth in baseball from June 3rd onward, and there’s nothing too meaningful about allowing seven earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.  It’s also worth pointing out that Bauer’s ERA was probably not going to stay around 2.00 even without a foreign substance crackdown.  Bauer certainly has not shied away from MLB’s sticky stuff drama, as he “demonstrated to reporters on the field before Tuesday’s game that a combination of sweat and rosin was sufficient to allow him to stick a baseball to his hand, palm down,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register.  He showed this on Twitter, while also diving into Tyler Glasnow’s comments.

If you’re an MLB GM considering signing Bauer at some point in the future, you’re definitely going to try to determine how much of Bauer’s recent success was the result of the use of foreign substances, because you have to forecast how he’ll perform over the next several years.  If this was a major consideration for Bauer’s suitors in the 2020-21 offseason, I didn’t hear about it.  For Bauer and potential suitors, the calculus has changed.  So let’s get your opinions on when we’ll see him next on the free agent market.

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

MLB Inspecting “Suspicious Baseballs” From Trevor Bauer’s Latest Start

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10:41pm: If the league attempts to punish Bauer, the union “would challenge any discipline not covered under current rules,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets.

8:09pm: Major League Baseball announced last month that it plans to crack down on pitchers doctoring baseballs. Now, one of the game’s highest-profile pitchers, Dodgers right-hander Trevor Bauer, is under the league’s microscope, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.

Bauer started against the Athletics on Wednesday, when he yielded two earned runs on 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. The umpires from that game have since collected multiple “suspicious baseballs” that Bauer threw, according to Rosenthal, who writes that they “had visible markings and were sticky.” As Rosenthal notes, though, the league may not be able to prove whether it was Bauer who doctored the ball, so it’s unclear whether it will discipline him.

Of course, the fact that the league’s looking at Bauer is especially intriguing when considering some of the past comments the outspoken 30-year-old has made in regards to potential cheating. He accused Astros pitchers of using illegal means in 2018 in an effort to increase their spin rate, and he then called the team “hypocrites” and “cheaters” last year.

Bauer had a career campaign in 2020 as a member of the Reds, with whom he won the National Cy Young, before signing a three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers in free agency. The returns so far have been promising, as Bauer has posted 20 strikeouts against three walks while giving up six runs on six hits in 13 innings, though this latest development is unwelcome for him and the Dodgers.

Quick Hits: Padres, Reds, Yankees

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Dinelson Lamet will not be ready to join the opening day rotation, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter). On the plus side, he will get his first Cactus League start on Wednesday. That should get him on track to join the rotation at some point in April. The Padres have plenty of depth to work around Lamet’s absence, especially because of the delayed Triple-A season. In fact, slow-playing Lamet’s return not only benefits the right-hander, but it opens an opportunity for Adrian Morejon to get a start or two before the Triple-A season begins. Elsewhere around the game…

  • Reds owner Bob Castellini spoke recently with Paul Daugherty on the Reds Beat Podcast about a number of topics, including the Reds chances to win the National League Central. Castellini sees a division that the Reds can win. Castellini also said that he never expected that the Reds could be players for Trevor Bauer in free agency. He also gave the team’s reasoning for moving some key bullpen pieces this winter, “We have no idea what the financial aspects of this season is going to be — before, during or after. We have at least two very fine relievers that are possible closers: Sims and Garrett. Maybe even more. For instance, if Michael Lorenzen doesn’t start, he’s another very top reliever. We have five left-handed relievers. We are not trying to understand what’s going to happen financially this year, but we wanted to … keep a little in reserve in case we needed it when we needed it. We feel like our bullpen’s going to be all right. Better than all right.”
  • The assumption for the past few weeks has been that the Yankees are trying to decide between Jay Bruce and Mike Tauchman for their final bench spot. The latest from Andy Martino of sny.tv suggests that both might be in a position to make the opening day roster. Rather than DFA Tauchman and risk losing him to waivers, the Yankees are considering optioning infielder Tyler Wade instead. The Yankees have started trying out Gio Urshela at shortstop should they need him to serve as their reserve infielder in an emergency basis. Who, exactly, would step in for Urshela at third in that circumstance isn’t entirely clear. In the unlikely event that Bruce and Tauchman both made the team, Kyle Higashioka and Brett Gardner would make up the rest of the bench. Presumably, Wade will need to be on this roster sooner rather than later, even if the Yankees use his option to give some extra time to the Bruce vs. Tauchman debate.
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