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Zack Wheeler

Pitcher Notes: Braves, Stroman, Mets, Wheeler, Fulmer, Giants

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The Braves were among the teams present to scout Marcus Stroman’s latest outing, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Braves are in many ways the perfect partner for a team with a moveable asset like the Blue Jays, as Atlanta is flush with near-ready major league arms, but lacking the consistency it desires as a team positioned for the playoffs. The asking price for Stroman is said to be high – in the area of what the Pirates surrendered for Chris Archer – but Toronto is likely taking the call even if Atlanta starts with one of its ready-but-struggling arms, depending on whom the Blue Jays favor from the group of Max Fried, Bryse Wilson, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright. Landing in Atlanta would reunite Stroman with Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who was the Jays’ GM when they drafted the hurler 22nd overall in 2012.

More on a few other noteworthy pitchers…

  • Mets righty and prime trade candidate Zack Wheeler went on the injured list with a shoulder impingement on July 15, but it doesn’t appear that’s going to stand in the way of a possible deadline deal. Wheeler could throw a full bullpen session Sunday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. If that goes well, there’s potential for Wheeler to return in time to make two starts by the July 31 cutoff for trades, Puma observes. As things stand, the Mets are still optimistic Wheeler would net “a solid return” in a deal, according to Puma.
  • Tigers righty Michael Fulmer provided an update Saturday on his recovery from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in March, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays. “Everything is going according to plan,” said Fulmer, who added he probably won’t pick up a baseball until October or November. The hope is that Fulmer will make it back to the Tigers’ rotation sometime next summer. While lefty Matthew Boyd is Detroit’s top trade chip nowadays, that honor belonged to Fulmer a couple years ago. However, thanks to the former Rookie of the Year’s recent downturn in performance, multiple injuries and his TJ procedure, Fulmer’s trade value is nil at the moment. Still just 26, Fulmer has another three years of arbitration eligibility left, so he could yet reemerge as a valuable starter for the Tigers.
  • The Giants added righty Jandel Gustave to their 40-man roster Thursday, in part because he has an opt-out in his minors deal and was drawing interest from other teams, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets (sorry, Henry, but Gustave’s placement on the Giants’ 40-man is not the most obscure transaction MLBTR has covered thus far). As Schulman notes, Gustave possesses an enticing high-90s fastball. The 26-year-old hasn’t been able to harness his stuff into positive results with the San Francisco organization yet, however. Gustave has pitched to a 6.56 ERA/6.08 FIP with 9.26 K/9, 4.24 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent groundball in 23 1/3 Triple-A innings this season.

Latest On Zack Wheeler

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Mets righty Zack Wheeler got back on the mound today, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among those to report on Twitter. Though he only threw 13 pitches, and did so from the slope of the mound rather than the rubber, it’s a notable sign for a significant potential New York trade chip.

When we put up MLBTR’s ranking of the top sixty trade deadline candidates last week, we had Wheeler in the third slot. The live-armed hurler hasn’t turned in an impressive earned run average this year (4.69) but otherwise looks like much the same pitcher who was so impressive in 2018.

Unfortunately, the Mets’ already gloomy season took another turn for the worse when Wheeler promptly came down with a shoulder impingement. He has been on the injured list since. Though the team has generally put out optimistic vibes, there’s no shortage of uncertainty as to his trade status with the deadline just a dozen days off.

It seems the major test for Wheeler, a free agent at season’s end, will come in the next few days. Assuming he recovers well from today’s limited session, Wheeler will likely be tasked with a full pen session. If all checks out at that point, per DiComo, the righty could be ready to start a big league game by the middle of next week.

If that timeline holds, Wheeler would theoretically be able to make two starts before July 31st. That ought to give interested teams enough time to get comfortable with his health and get a sense for the current status of his arsenal. Whether there’ll be any impact on Wheeler’s value remains to be seen. The team still believes it can procure “something decent” in a trade, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets.

If Wheeler isn’t able to make it back before the deadline for some reason, it’s still possible he could be dealt. But it’s quite possible the return wouldn’t be sufficient to prompt a move. The Mets can always hold on to Wheeler, hoping he can help spur a surprise run late this year while returning to full health, and then extend him a qualifying offer at season’s end.

Mets Notes: Trades, Nimmo, O’Rourke

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The latest on the Mets….

  • The Mets entered the day with a 44-51 record, they’re still only five games out of a wild card spot in the congested National League.  With this in mind, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman suggests that if the team isn’t going to really blow things up by dealing Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom, they might as well hang onto other veteran trade chips like Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, and Jason Vargas (none of whom are likely to generate much in the way of a return at the deadline, with Wheeler’s value in question due to injury) to try and contend down the stretch.  With so much parity in the NL, “why not just play this out, rather than performing a fan-angering salary dump for minimal prospect return?” Sherman asks.
  • Brandon Nimmo is able to resume some baseball activities after the Mets shut him down last month, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (Twitter link).  While Nimmo probably won’t start a rehab assignment “until August at the earliest,” it’s still a positive step forward given that Nimmo has been suffering from a bulging cervical disc in his neck.  It would seem like there’s at least some chance Nimmo gets back onto the field this season, though the Mets will obviously be careful with the outfielder given the delicate nature of the injury.
  • Ryan O’Rourke was designated for assignment by the Mets in late June, and learned about the move in unfortunate fashion, Syracuse.com’s Lindsay Kramer writes.  O’Rourke wasn’t told about the transaction by a coach or staff member, but rather via Twitter after a teammate showed him the news prior to a game.  The left-hander ended up remaining in the organization at Triple-A Syracuse after being outrighted off the 40-man roster in late June, though O’Rourke took advantage of his brief hiatus in a unique manner.  He ended up playing for Team Ireland in the qualifying rounds of the 2019 European Baseball Championship, appearing in two games for his grandfather’s home country.   “I was so happy. It was one of the better experiences in baseball of my entire life….I’m not representing myself, I’m representing my parents, my grandparents. I’m representing a country. I’ve never represented a country before when I played so it was really cool,” O’Rourke said.

Mets Place Zack Wheeler On Injured List

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July 16: Wheeler has been formally placed on the IL, the Mets announced. An MRI did not reveal any structural damage, Healey reports, but it’s still uncertain how long Wheeler will be out. Healey tweets that Wheeler declined to put a timetable on his expected return.

July 15: The Mets will place right-hander and top trade candidate Zack Wheeler on the injured list today due to shoulder fatigue, reports Newsday’s Tim Healey (Twitter link). Lefty Steven Matz will start in place of Wheeler tomorrow.

It’s still not known precisely how Wheeler’s trade status and value will be impacted. Even if the move is backdated the maximum three days, Wheeler still won’t be able to return until July 23rd. As Healey points out, that’ll give him a maximum of two starts before the trade deadline even in a best-case scenario.

If all goes well, the Mets could still get a haul for their top rental piece. If Wheeler doesn’t bounce back rapidly, or shows anything worrying once he is back on the hill, then all bets are off.

All things considered, the timing couldn’t be much worse for the Mets. The club has endured a miserable season to this point, with rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen recently acknowledging that the team has “low expectations” for the remainder of the year. The upcoming trade deadline seemingly offered a chance for the club to recoup a consolation prize or two by cashing in some veterans.

Wheeler is not only the team’s best pending free agent, he’s one of the top trade chips in all of baseball. The 29-year-old had finally moved past the health issues that dogged him earlier in his career, finding a new gear in his final two seasons before reaching the open market. While he only carries a 4.69 ERA this year, he has thrown harder than ever before, racked up an impressive 9.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9, and logged plenty of innings (119 over 19 starts).

Today’s news threatens to dent that profile of Wheeler as a deadline piece. Buying teams will be especially wary given his prior concerns and the lack of future contractual control. The Mets will have to hope that Wheeler is able to bounce right back and show he’s still throwing well. If not, their options could be limited, particularly given the lack of an August trade period to work with. Teams have in the past swung deals for injured players; the Rays’ 2013 acquisition of Jesse Crain comes to mind. But if Wheeler’s value is harmed sufficiently, it may well end up making greater sense for the team to hold tight and hope he throws well enough down the stretch to warrant a qualifying offer.

Rays Have Asked About Zack Wheeler

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Mets right-hander and prime trade candidate Zack Wheeler went on the injured list Monday with shoulder fatigue – an issue that may damage or destroy his value. However, if Wheeler makes it back in the next couple weeks, the Rays could be among the teams competing for him around the July 31 trade deadline. They’ve asked about Wheeler, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.

Tampa Bay’s rotation currently has a notable omission of its own in righty Tyler Glasnow, who has been down since the beginning of May with a flexor strain. Rays manager Kevin Cash announced Monday that Glasnow may not make it back this season, which could intensify their efforts to acquire pitching before the deadline.

At 56-40, two games up on the American League’s No. 1 wild-card spot and five behind the AL East-leading Yankees, the Rays are in position to buy. The success the Rays have achieved this year is all the more impressive when considering their dearth of traditional starters. Charlie Morton, Blake Snell and Yonny Chirinos are all the team has right now in that regard, though Brendan McKay has performed well in the first three starts of his career and could return from Triple-A Durham soon.

In acquiring Wheeler, the low-budget Rays would be getting one of baseball’s hardest-throwing starters on a salary even they could afford ($5.975MM). But Wheeler’s not under control past 2019, which would make him a pure rental for Tampa Bay, and has had a difficult time preventing runs this year.

In spite of his 97 mph-plus fastball, the 29-year-old Wheeler has pitched to a below-average 4.69 ERA across 119 innings. While a subpar Mets defense has undermined Wheeler’s efforts, he has further hindered his cause by yielding home runs on a career-worst 13.7 percent of fly balls. FIP (3.66), xFIP (3.84), SIERA (3.99) and fWAR (2.6) all suggest Wheeler has deserved far better this season, though, and his 9.83 K/9 against 2.57 BB/9 presents another reason for bullishness. Of course, if Wheeler’s still out of commission by the deadline, his production could prove to be meaningless to the Rays and other July buyers.

Red Sox Among Teams With Interest In Zack Wheeler

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The Red Sox and Mets are engaged in preliminary talks regarding New York righty Zack Wheeler, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Boston is said to be targeting a rotation addition after deciding to utilize Nathan Eovaldi in the bullpen.

Importantly, there’s no indication that a deal is close. And the Sox are far from alone in pursuit of Wheeler. The Braves, Brewers, and Yankees were all connected to him recently. Andy Martino of SNY.tv suggests that the Cubs are another possibility, though it’s unclear whether the clubs are in contact.

It’s unsurprising to hear tell of a robust slate of possible suitors for a pitcher who figures to be among the top rental arms available. That’s especially true given that Wheeler is earning just under $6MM this season, making him amply affordable for just about any team.

The salary factor is of particular note with regard to the Boston organization. While the club is one of the game’s most consistent spenders and is coming off of the bonanza of a World Series win, it is also walking a financial tightrope this year and doesn’t plan to extend its payroll much further.

It’s also notable to see the Fenway denizens connected at this stage to a top rental piece. The club isn’t exactly in prime position after a ho-hum start to the season. There’s a nine-game gap in the division, which is paced by a Yankees club that seems poised to make more impactful additions, and serious competition even for a Wild Card birth.

What’s most interesting of all here, perhaps, is the potential for a quick and active bidding situation. The Red Sox and Yankees are obviously aware of the implications of one or the other landing a particular player. With the Sox said to be looking to strike a relatively quick deal to bring in rotation help, they could conceivably force the market to move. If the Yanks see Wheeler as their preferred target, they might need to act decisively, setting up an intriguing dynamic involving the club’s chief on-field rival in Boston and its sole market competitor across the way in Queens.

Martino says the Mets “have shifted into a more aggressive sell mode,” which makes sense given their all-but-hopeless spot in the standings (ten games under .500, 13.5 out of the division lead, second-to-worst record in the National League). It may well behoove the team to get the jump on marketing its rental pieces, Wheeler in particular, while other teams try to wait until the last moment. But committing even to a limited sell-off — particularly this early, and especially if it involves the Yankees — would certainly represent a bitter pill for ownership and rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Better Rental: Madison Bumgarner Or Zack Wheeler?

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It’s fair to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler are the two best soon-to-be free-agent starters who could realistically change teams before the July 31 trade deadline. Neither the Giants nor Mets are in contention, and there haven’t been any rumors about extension talks between the teams and the hurlers. Furthermore, both clubs’ farm systems are lacking, so trading Bumgarner and Wheeler could help the organizations better themselves in that area. The question is: Who’s the more desirable of the pair?

The more impressive track record belongs to Bumgarner, who will turn 30 the day after the deadline. He’s a three-time World Series champion and one of the most successful postseason pitchers in recent memory, which could matter to starter-needy clubs that have their sights set on fall baseball. Bumgarner owns a phenomenal 2.11 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 102 1/3 playoff innings, though he hasn’t pitched that deep into the season since 2016. More recently, Bumgarner has morphed into a mid-rotation starter, no longer the front-line stalwart he was when he was helping the Giants to championships.

This season, Bumgarner has pitched to a 4.02 ERA/3.96 FIP with a 35.8 percent groundball rate over 109 2/3 innings, and has seen hitters put up a .332 expected weighted on-base average against his offerings versus a .311 real wOBA. Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not those of a rotation savior. At the same time, though, Bumgarner has produced a K/BB ratio befitting of an ace. With 9.27 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9, he stands 17th in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.71). The fact that Bumgarner has recorded career-best chase and first-pitch strike rates has helped him in that regard.

Wheeler’s also 29, yet he doesn’t have a single inning of playoff experience. Still, there’s a case to be made that he’s a better asset than Bumgarner. This much is clear: On a $5.975MM salary against Bumgarner’s $12MM, Wheeler is noticeably less expensive. And while Bumgarner’s not going to intimidate anyone with his low-90s velocity, Wheeler attacks hitters with one of the hardest fastballs in the game – a pitch that averages upward of 97.2 mph. Wheeler has used his velo to register 9.71 K/9 versus 2.53 BB/9 this year, yet he hasn’t had an easy time preventing runs. Wheeler’s ERA is at a lofty 4.42 through 114 frames, but his FIP’s a much more encouraging 3.63, and he has induced grounders at roughly a 45 percent clip. He’s also outdoing Bumgarner in the wOBA/xwOBA department (.295/.302).

Undoubtedly, Bumgarner or Wheeler is a question playoff-caliber teams seeking starters have asked themselves in recent weeks, and it’s one they’ll continue debating leading up to the deadline. With both pitchers likely on the move in the next four weeks, they may end up having a large amount of say in this year’s playoff race and perhaps the postseason itself. Which of the two would you rather have?

(Poll link for app users)

Zack Wheeler Rumors: Yankees, Braves, Brewers

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Trades between the Yankees and Mets have been rare during the crosstown rivals’ histories. The clubs have made just 15 deals since 1966, in fact, but we might see No. 16 this summer. With the starter-needy Yankees pushing for a World Series and the Mets looking like non-contenders, the New York franchises could come together on a trade for soon-to-be free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler this month. The Yankees are already known to like Wheeler, and the Mets wouldn’t be averse to sending him to the Bronx, Andy Martino of SNY.tv says.

The Mets are more focused on getting the best offer for Wheeler than where they’d trade him. But the Yankees are sure to face plenty of competition for Wheeler if they do make an earnest attempt to pull him in before the July 31 deadline. Martino names Atlanta and Milwaukee as just a couple other teams with interest in the 29-year-old. The Brewers were “enamored” of Wheeler’s upside as recently as last offseason, per Marc Carig of The Athletic (subscription link).

The heat-throwing Wheeler put on a show for an array of scouts Tuesday when he handled, of all teams, the Yankees. Wheeler fanned eight over 6 1/3 innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits and a walk. He’s still running an uninspiring 4.42 ERA through 114 frames this season, up significantly from last year’s 3.31. It hasn’t helped that Wheeler has pitched in front of a dreadful defense, though, and the rest of his output is far more promising than his simple run prevention numbers. Wheeler has struck out 9.71 batters per nine while walking 2.53, giving him an outstanding 3.71 K/BB ratio. He’s also inducing grounders at a 45.3 percent clip and infield flies 14 percent of the time – the latter of which ranks 13th among qualified starters.

Adding to Wheeler’s appeal, he’s on a $5.975MM salary that every contender should be able to afford. It appears he’ll join Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner as one of the top two rental starters available in July, barring a miraculous Mets turnaround. The Mets have won two in a row, though they’re still just 39-47 and six games out in a jam-packed National League playoff race. Assuming New York elects to sell, dealing Wheeler would give the team a chance to replenish its lackluster farm system to at least some degree. The Mets just may be able to do that at the Yankees’ expense.

Mets Notes & Rumors: Vargas, Wheeler, Deadline, Familia

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Mets executives aren’t pleased with left-hander Jason Vargas following his recent threat to a reporter in the clubhouse, an unnamed Mets official tells Wallace Matthews of Yahoo Sports. “We’re all angry with him,” says the official before rhetorically asking, “Think he’ll be here next year?” The incident could very well push Vargas out the door before the trade deadline, Matthews writes, as both ownership and the front office are “incensed” that Vargas has not simply apologized — which led to the team fielding questions regarding the incident even during this week’s ceremony to honor Tom Seaver. Matthews cites a second official who was “at a loss to explain Vargas’ hostility,” and COO Jeff Wilpon again addressed the issue and expressed regret and apologies in speaking with Matthews. While the $10K fine issued to Vargas didn’t even qualify as a slap on the wrist, Matthews notes that a team cannot issue a larger fine without being subject to a grievance from the MLBPA. Vargas clearly hasn’t helped his standing with the Mets, but he’s at least pitched well of late; he has a 2.55 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 42 percent grounder rate over his last 11 starts (60 innings).

More Mets chatter as their downward spiral continues…

  • Zack Wheeler has had an uneven season but still seems like an obvious trade candidate barring a miraculous turnaround for the Mets. The 29-year-old is a free agent at season’s end, and while he’s sitting on a 4.51 ERA, Wheeler’s 3.75 FIP and 3.88 xFIP are more encouraging. Throw out the first two ugly outings of the season, and Wheeler has a 3.95 ERA with a 106-to-23 K/BB ratio over a span of 98 innings. Wheeler addressed the writing that’s on the wall when speaking with Mike Puma of the New York Post. “It’s there,” said Wheeler. “The trade deadline is coming up and there is no way around it, we need to start winning some games or some guys are going to start getting traded out of here. … It’s tough, because this is where you want to win, it’s New York and these are my guys and this is the group I want to win with.”
  • While the Mets look like probable sellers, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets that the team might be a bit quieter than many would expect. Although the organization has little choice but to trade Wheeler, the other moves might not bring a great return. The club will likely try to move Vargas and Todd Frazier for some salary relief, but the returns on such deals would be limited even with Vargas throwing fairly well of late. As Puma writes in his aforementioned column, the Mets’ previous front office regime frequently had to settle for marginal returns on veteran players due to ownership’s unwillingness to pay down much of the salaries still owed to players such as Addison Reed and Jay Bruce, among several others.
  • Injured reliever Jeurys Familia is progressing toward a return, DiComo reports. The right-handed Familia, on the injured list with shoulder problems since June 18, was scheduled to begin a rehab assignment Friday at the Single-A level. His rehab stint could last more than just a game or two, DiComo notes, as the Mets would like Familia to show some of his past form before returning to the majors. The Mets reunited with Familia last offseason on a three-year, $30MM contract, which has been a disastrous investment for the team three months into the campaign. The 29-year-old Familia has endured two IL stints because of shoulder troubles and notched a 7.81 ERA/6.11 FIP with 9.11 K/9 and 6.83 BB/9 during the 27 2/3 innings he has pitched.

Zack Wheeler Drawing Interest

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To state the obvious, this season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Mets. They’re the owners of a 34-36 record, staring at a 5 1/2-game deficit in their division and a five-game mark for the National League’s second wild card. First-time general manager Brodie Van Wagenen boldly suggested over the winter the Mets would take on all comers in 2019, but his roster has instead spun its wheels for a couple months.

Barring a turnaround leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, the Mets may have to consider selling off players they deem nonessential to their future – perhaps to boost an inadequate farm system. As things stand, the Mets aren’t giving up on buying, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. If the team does a 180 on that mindset, though, it’ll have an intriguing trade chip in starter Zack Wheeler. The right-hander’s on many teams’ radars, including the crosstown rival Yankees’, according to Heyman.

The 29-year-old Wheeler’s in his final season of team control, in which he’s making a reasonable $5.975MM. The fact that he’s affordable enhances his trade value, though this hasn’t been a banner contract year in terms of results for Wheeler.

After missing most of 2015-17 because of injuries, the former Tommy John surgery patient returned last year to fire 182 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.25 FIP ball. This season, though, his 4.87 ERA through 88 2/3 frames ranks eighth worst among 81 qualified major league starters. Along the way, Wheeler’s average exit velocity against has gone from 84.7 mph to 87.8 mph and his hard-hit rate has risen from 27.1 percent to 34.4 since 2018, according to Statcast. Better contact against Wheeler has led to more balls leaving the yard. Wheeler yielded home runs on a paltry 8.1 percent of fly balls a year ago, but he’s now at 14.1.

Despite the red flags in Wheeler’s production, there are clear reasons for hope. With a 97 mph average fastball and a sinker that typically clocks in at 96, he remains one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball. Wheeler’s velo has helped him increase his strikeout rate from 8.84 per nine in 2018 to a career-high 10.05 this season, while his swinging-strike percentage (11.2) and walk rate (2.64) also represent personal bests. Although Wheeler’s not getting as many ground balls as he did earlier in his career, his GB percentage (44.4) is still above average, as is his 12 percent infield fly rate. Unsurprisingly, the gap between his weighted on-base average against/expected wOBA (.307/.296) indicates he has deserved somewhat better to this point.

While this season hasn’t gone to Wheeler’s liking, it seems fair to say he’s an above-average major league starter. He’d therefore be one of the best starters on the block this summer if the Mets were to put him there, trailing Matthew Boyd but perhaps ranking in the vicinity of Marcus Stroman and Madison Bumgarner. However, it’ll be a moot point if the Mets decide to retain Wheeler, which seems to be their intention as of now. Plenty can change in the next month and a half, though.

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