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Marcus Stroman

MLBTR Poll: Bauer vs. Ray vs. Stroman

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Baseball’s hiatus gives us an opportunity to examine both the past and future of the sport. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked back at a potential franchise-altering trade that never materialized. Today, we’ll turn our attention to the future: specifically, the upcoming free agent class.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ran his initial 2020-21 free agent power rankings a few weeks ago. No question, Mookie Betts looks like the jewel of a position player heavy class. Yet the pitching side looks a bit muddled. Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman checked in alongside one another (in that order) as the three arms in Tim’s top ten. Obviously, there’s time for one to emerge as the unquestioned top starter on the market in 2020. As of now, though, which hurler do the MLBTR readers anticipate getting the top guarantee next winter, and which one would you prefer your favorite team roll the dice on?

  • Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati: For most of his career, the 29-year-old Bauer’s been a durable, mid-rotation type. He’s soaked up tons of innings, but in five of six seasons, he’s put up an ERA between 4.18 and 4.55 (with marginally better FIP’s). At his best, though, Bauer flashed a ceiling most pitchers can only dream of. In 2018, the former #3 overall pick worked to a 2.21 ERA with an elite 30.8% strikeout rate. An unsustainably low HR/FB rate meant that ERA always figured to regress somewhat, but it was still surprising to see Bauer post a league-average 4.48 mark in 2019. Bauer, of course, has expressed a desire to sign a series of one-year deals as a free agent. If he sticks to that plan, he’ll almost certainly not garner the top overall guarantee for a pitcher this offseason (or any other). But that high-risk approach is easier to espouse in theory than in practice, and Bauer recently walked back that plan a little bit. His free agency will be fascinating to follow.
  • Robbie Ray, Arizona: A bit like Bauer, the 28-year-old Ray is a tantalizing but somewhat frustrating talent. Since the start of 2017, he ranks fifth among starters (minimum 300 innings) in strikeout rate and 12th in swinging strike rate. He’s surrounded by the game’s aces on both leaderboards. Only Tyler Chatwood and Francisco Liriano have higher walk rates than Ray in that same period, though. The southpaw has never had a season with a better than average walk rate; that general inefficiency has run up some high pitch counts and helped prevent Ray from ever eclipsing 175 innings in a season. His ERA’s the past four years have varied quite a bit (4.90, 2.89, 3.93, 4.34). Teams could have different evaluations for Ray’s future, but the most likely outcome seems to be solid mid-rotation production via something of an extreme approach.
  • Marcus Stroman, Mets: Unlike his top two competitors, Stroman doesn’t generate many whiffs. The 28-year-old’s sinker is more conducive to a ground-ball heavy game. He throws strikes and has managed to avoid home runs even in the juiced ball era thanks to strong contact management. Stroman’s sinker/slider/cutter mix isn’t the four-seam/curveball combination coveted by most teams nowadays. Nevertheless, he’ll have plenty of suitors since he’s proven capable of ample success. 2018 was an injury-marred struggle, but Stroman’s put up at least 184.1 innings in three of the past four seasons and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. That’s a better track record of run prevention than either Bauer (4.04) or Ray (4.11) can boast.
  • Others: Other free agents to be (complete list of 2020-21 free agents) include Kevin Gausman, James Paxton, Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker. Between age, injuries and/or recent underperformance, it’s tough to project any of them to beat Bauer, Ray or Stroman this winter. Perhaps you’re more optimistic about someone a bit under-the-radar?

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Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Brian Cashman On Yankees’ Deadline Interest In Marcus Stroman

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Considering the bevy of rumors linking Marcus Stroman to the Yankees before July’s trade deadline, it wasn’t a surprise rebuilding Toronto sent the right-hander to New York during the summer. It was, however, unexpected that Stroman ended up with the Mets instead of the Yankees.  It turns out the Yankees’ interest in Stroman – although real – wasn’t especially high, general manager Brian Cashman reveals to Yahoo Sports’ Wallace Matthews in a quality piece profiling the longtime executive.

“We were interested in Stroman but we didn’t think he would be a difference-maker,” Cashman said. “We felt he would be in our bullpen in the postseason.”

That’s an eyebrow-raising quote in regards to Stroman, who was plenty effective in the Yankees’ division – the American League East – from 2014-18. Despite Stroman’s successful track record, his remaining year and a half of affordable team control and the Yankees’ apparent need for starters, they held firm when the Jays “were demanding” outfielder Clint Frazier in a package for the hurler, Matthews reports. Frazier drew plenty of rumored interest from around the league before the deadline, at which point he was languishing in the minors, but he stayed put. While Frazier’s latest recall didn’t come until rosters expanded at the beginning of this month, he has picked up some starts of late as the Yankees’ outfield deals with injuries to Aaron Hicks and Mike Tauchman.

Whether the Yankees were right to seemingly prioritize Frazier over Stroman is up for debate. No matter which side you’re on there, it’s hard to have complete confidence in the AL East winners’ rotation – something they didn’t address at the deadline –  as the playoffs approach. The Yankees just lost Domingo German for the season because of a domestic violence investigation (though Cashman obviously couldn’t have foreseen that), and CC Sabathia will end his illustrious career in the bullpen after a rough, injury-plagued regular season as a starter. Sabathia’s fellow aged lefty, J.A. Happ, has joined him in struggling for most of this year, but Happ has rounded back to form lately. Even better than Happ’s recent success? Ace Luis Severino just debuted last week after a season-long battle with injuries, and James Paxton has been on a roll since mid-August.

In the event the Yankees need four starters in a postseason series, Severino, Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka (who hasn’t been great in 2019) and Happ will present their four best traditional options. While there’s a strong case that Stroman’s preferable to at least one member of that quartet, the Yankees didn’t regard him as enough of an upgrade to surrender significant young talent for him over the summer.

NL East Notes: Mets, Nationals, Marlins

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Mets infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil started a rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Thursday, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reports. McNeil went to the injured list Aug. 14 with a hamstring strain, making him eligible to return Saturday. It’s not clear whether he’ll come back this weekend, though, as the Mets first “want to see him ranging and running down balls just to make sure he’s totally healthy,” according to manager Mickey Callaway. Meanwhile, although right-hander Marcus Stroman left his start early on Wednesday with left hamstring tightness, he doesn’t expect to miss any time (via Tim Britton of The Athletic). “I’m going to make that start against the Cubs on Tuesday,” Stroman said of his next scheduled outing.

Here’s more on a couple other NL East clubs…

  • It looks as if Nationals righty Joe Ross will make his scheduled start Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. Ross left his most recent start this past Monday in the fourth inning after taking a 110 mph comebacker off the right leg. Even though Nationals ace Max Scherzer finally returned from a weeks-long absence Thursday, the club doesn’t plan to lift Ross from its rotation. The 26-year-old helped Washington weather the temporary loss of Scherzer by delivering an incredible 21 1/3 innings of one-run ball in his first four starts of the month, though Ross only managed a 13:9 K:BB ratio in that span.
  • More from Zuckerman, who observes that the Nationals’ signing of Asdrubal Cabrera has worked out brilliantly for the club. The Nationals brought in Cabrera on a low-paying deal Aug. 5 after the Rangers released the 33-year-old infielder, who underwhelmed in Texas over the season’s first few months. However, since joining the Nats, Cabrera has slashed .324/.422/.622 with a pair of home runs over a small sample of 45 plate appearances. Cabrera attributes some of his success to hitting coach Kevin Long, whom he has reunited with in Washington after the two were with the Mets from 2015-17. “He knows me,” Cabrera said. “I played for him two years, and he knows when my swing is good or when it’s not.”
  • Marlins righty Pablo Lopez could return to their rotation before the month’s out, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Lopez has been out for just over two months with a shoulder issue, having gone on the injured list June 19. The 23-year-old impressed over 14 starts before then, notching a 4.23 ERA/3.56 FIP with 8.57 K/9, 2.11 BB/9 and a 48.8 percent groundball rate in 76 2/3 innings.

East Notes: Nola, Stroman, Dansby, Riley, Deivi, Lowe

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As the Phillies quest for a playoff berth intensifies, manager Gabe Kapler looks poised to increase his ace’s workload in hopes that Aaron Nola can carry the team to the promised land. As Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports writes, the Phillies are considering starting the 26-year-old Nola every fifth day for the stretch run, regardless of intervening off days. Last year’s third-place NL Cy Young finisher has been far and away the most reliable of the Phillies’ starting rotation, which has sorely lacked for production outside of its ace. If the Phillies were to employ such a plan, Nola would make eight more starts over the next month-plus, which would place him at a total of 35 at season’s end. As Salisbury notes, though, Nola has often benefitted from a fifth day of rest and features considerably better career numbers with the extra day off. Of course, it’s undeniable that Nola is the Phillies’ best option to start games and the club is confident that, in a playoff race that may well be decided in the waning days of the season, their chances are maximized with Nola on the mound as often as possible.

Here’s all the latest from baseball’s East divisions…

  • Mets starter Marcus Stroman left today’s start against the Indians after just four innings because of left hamstring tightness. Tim Healey of Newsday has an update, with Stroman undergoing an MRI that showed no reason for concern. Indeed, it’s only hamstring tightness for the new Met, who has now made four starts with his new club. All indications are that the injury is nothing serious, so it seems as though Stroman should be good to go for his next start.
  • A pair of young Braves regulars are slated to begin rehab assignments in the coming days, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Shortstop Dansby Swanson will join the Class-A Rome Braves on Thursday for a rehab stint, with rookie slugger Austin Riley joining him the following day. Swanson has been out since late July with a heel issue, while Riley has missed about two weeks with a partially torn right LCL. While the Braves have found capable replacements for both young stars and has gotten by without the pair, the club would no doubt welcome Swanson and Riley back to the lineup as soon as possible. Swanson has put together his best offensive season, while Riley has gotten his career off to a blistering start, slugging 17 home runs in just 66 Major League games.
  • Yankees pitching prospect Deivi Garcia has been moved to the bullpen for Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre, according to Connor Foley of the Scranton Times-Tribune. While the organization has not given an explicit explanation for the move, it seems likely that it’s motivated by one of two things: most likely, the Yankees are limiting the workload for Garcia, who is just 20 years old and has already eclipsed 100 innings pitched for the season, a threshold that he never reached prior to 2019; or, less likely, the team is preparing Garcia for the role he would have in the Majors as a potential September call-up. The club has taken a similar course of action in the past with Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams, though both were further along in their development than Garcia.
  • Injured Rays rookie Brandon Lowe may have hit a roadblock in his recovery from a right shin contusion, as he exited his rehab game with Triple-A Durham with a left quad strain, according to Juan Toribio of MLB.com. That injury, of course, is separate from the shin contusion, though the severity is not yet known. Lowe will return to St. Petersburg tomorrow to be further evaluated, at which point more details will likely be made available. Lowe, who has generated buzz as a Rookie of the Year candidate, has not played for the Rays since July 2. He had previously been expected to return in late August or early September, but that timeline may have been complicated by the introduction of another, unrelated injury.

Details On The Twins’ Trade Deadline Talks

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Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo represented the sum total of the Twins’ midseason additions as the club tries to hold its lead atop the AL Central.  While Dyson and Romo address needs in the bullpen, Minnesota was also very aggressive in looking for starting pitching, though ultimately came up short in reinforcing the rotation.

Rival teams continually asked the Twins about top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, with the Mets among the multiple clubs who asking for both youngsters.  New York wanted both Lewis and Kiriloff in discussions about Noah Syndergaard, and if premium minor league talent wasn’t available for the ace, the Mets were also focused on adding Major League players, to the point of asking Minnesota about Byron Buxton in a possible Syndergaard deal.

Lewis and Kirilloff were also on the mind of the Blue Jays’ front office, as Toronto was looking for either of the prospects in exchange for Marcus Stroman.  Minnesota turned down this initial request, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the Jays never called back with any other offers before trading Stroman to the Mets.  This would seem to indicate that the Jays were only interested in Lewis and Kirilloff specifically, though Hayes writes that “the Twins were disappointed when Toronto didn’t give them a chance to match an offer they believed they could have outdone.”

Beyond the prospects, Hayes tweeted that Luis Arraez was “everyone’s favorite ask” amongst teams who were offering rental players to Minnesota.  Arraez has been a revelation for the Twins over his first 43 Major League games, as the rookie is hitting .349/.422/.445 over 166 plate appearances.  Arraez has long boasted strong averages and on-base numbers in the minors, and while regression is inevitable, his .361 xwOBA isn’t far off his .388 wOBA.  With this much potential, it isn’t hard to see why the Twins were reluctant to part with a 22-year-old, multi-positional talent for only a rental player (or potentially anyone).

Hayes reports that the Twins were considering both Robbie Ray and Mike Minor, though concerns about Ray’s durability and Minor’s July struggles diminished the interest.  On the relief front, the Twins also had interest in Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez.

“It was one of the most unique trade deadlines I’ve ever experienced,” Twins GM Thad Levine told Hayes and other reporters.  “One error I made was assuming that early in the trade cycle that the leverage was towards the seller.  I assumed that there was going to be a little bit of a shift of that see-saw back to the buyer as we got closer to the deadline. I’m not sure we ever saw the shift in the see-saw. The sellers felt pretty emboldened. They set the prices high, which is very normal in a trade deadline. But I’m not sure they moved off of those high asks at any point, and as a result, there were just a finite number of players that meaningfully changed the fortunes of playoff-contending teams.”

Early talks with the Giants involving multiple players (including Dyson, Madison Bumgarner, and Will Smith) did result in the late Dyson trade.  Minnesota and San Francisco re-engaged in talks just 45 minutes before the 3pm CT deadline, medicals on the four players in the deal were exchanged at 2:50pm, and the trade was finalized with just five minutes to spare.

Latest On Twins’ Pitching Pursuits

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Over the past few weeks, the Twins have reportedly pursued trades for several high-profile starters, including right-handers Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard. Stroman, whom the Mets acquired from the Blue Jays on Sunday, is no longer an option for the Twins. Syndergaard, now one of Stroman’s teammates, could still move by Wednesday’s deadline. It doesn’t appear he’s going to end up in Minnesota, though. The Twins have balked at the Mets’ asking price for Syndergaard after turning down the Blue Jays’ requests for Stroman, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports.

Toronto ultimately gave up Stroman for prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two pitchers who do not rank among the game’s top 100 farmhands. On the other hand, the Blue Jays informed the Twins any Stroman trade “had to include” one of shortstop Royce Lewis or outfielder Alex Kirilloff, Neal writes. Lewis and Kirilloff are comfortably within baseball’s top 100 range, and they’re among a select few prospects the Twins may be wholly uninterested in trading for just about anyone.

The Mets, meanwhile, sought a return including center fielder Byron Buxton in their Syndergaard-related discussions with the Twins, according to Neal. Unsurprisingly, giving up Buxton was out of the question for the Twins, who have seen the 25-year-old blossom into a highly valuable member of their AL Central-leading roster. Buxton, moreover, is making just $1.75MM this season and under control via arbitration for the next three years.

Having struck out on Stroman and Syndergaard, the Twins are prepared to move on to relief pursuits, per Neal, who writes they “seem comfortable” with the starters they have. Statistically, their rotation – which consists of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez – has held its own this season.

Minnesota’s bullpen hasn’t been as successful as the team’s starters, and there has been no shortage of recent turnover in its relief corps with the deadline approaching. The Twins parted with Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker after each racked up a solid number of innings for the club earlier in the season. Hoping to upgrade, the Twins acquired the established Sergio Romo from the Marlins on Saturday. It doesn’t appear chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager are going to stop there. They’ve talked to every MLB team with relievers to trade – including the previously reported Padres (Kirby Yates) and Blue Jays (Ken Giles and Daniel Hudson) – and Neal suggests those discussions are likely to continue.

Blue Jays Had Interest In Extending Marcus Stroman

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The Blue Jays traded Marcus Stroman to the Mets on Sunday, ending a fruitful tenure in Toronto for the diminutive right-hander. The Jays did have interest in extending Stroman before they decided to part with him, though. General manager Ross Atkins said Monday (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet) that he had discussions “multiple times over the last couple of weeks” with Stroman’s agent in regards to a long-term contract. In the end, however, “It felt as though that gap was too big.”

It’s unclear how high Toronto was willing to go to keep Stroman, who remains on track to reach free agency after the 2020 season. The 28-year-old professed a love for Toronto and the country of Canada on several occasions during his Blue Jays career. Back in February, for example, Stroman stated he “embodies the city of Toronto” more than anybody else, adding he hoped to remain a Blue Jay “for a long time.” Stroman claimed at the time the Jays hadn’t offered him an extension, though, and expressed frustration about his lack of long-term security with the franchise.

Five-plus months later, Stroman is now with another organization. And whether New York will broach an extension with Stroman isn’t known, but it stands to reason the team will if it follows through on trading Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler in the near future. Should those two depart, ace Jacob deGrom and the inconsistent Steven Matz would be the Mets’ only current starters under control past 2020. Moreover, the Mets aren’t teeming with pitching prospects who are close to the majors, especially after trading 24-year-old left-hander Anthony Kay as part of the package for Stroman.

Since debuting in 2014, Stroman has made a strong case for a sizable contract by posting a 3.76 ERA/3.61 FIP, a 59.4 percent groundball rate and a 2.52 BB/9 in 789 2/3 innings (135 appearances, 129 starts). However, Strikeouts are one key element somewhat absent from Stroman’s game. He has fanned just over 7.2 batters per nine for his career and a bit under that figure this season. He’s also sporting a sub-10 percent swinging-strike rate in a league where the average mark has climbed all the way to 11.2. Stroman’s lack of high-end bat-missing ability may negatively affect the value of his next deal, though he could still be in line for a lucrative payday sometime before the 2021 season.

Reaction & Analysis To The Marcus Stroman Trade

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It was widely assumed that the Blue Jays were going to trade Marcus Stroman before the deadline, and many rumors suggested that he could eventually wind up in New York.  Exactly where in the Big Apple Stroman landed, however, ended up being the surprise, as it was the Mets (they of the 55-60 record and the six-game deficit in the NL wild card standings) who landed the right-hander, rather than the AL-leading Yankees.  The Mets acquired Stroman from the Jays for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two of the Amazins’ top pitching prospects.

Today’s stunner of a deal has already led to quite a bit of reaction and speculation about what moves could come next.  The highlights…

  • The Mets have “hijacked the [pitching] market” with the trade, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets.  The Mets’ plan is to keep Stroman, and “the likelihood is strong they deal at least one of” Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that New York could try to sign Wheeler, a pending free agent, to a contract extension, though Passan feels a long-term deal with Wheeler is “increasingly unlikely.”
  • The Padres have been heavily linked to Syndergaard since the offseason, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that San Diego is “not optimistic” about landing the righty, since the Mets’ trade demands for Syndergaard are so high.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier today that Manuel Margot had been discussed as part of the Mets/Padres talks.
  • Seth Lugo is another Mets pitcher “gaining late interest” in trade talks, the New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar reports (Twitter link).  Lugo has been the Amazins’ best reliever this season, posting a 2.77 ERA, 11.94 K/9, and 5.15 K/BB rate over 52 innings.  Lugo is under control through the 2022 season, so he’d cost a hefty price in a trade, and one wonders if the Mets would even consider moving such a relatively inexpensive long-term asset since they’re planning to contend next year.  (Plus, Lugo becomes even more valuable to the pen if the Mets were to deal Edwin Diaz.)
  • Chris Hemsw….er, that is, Syndergaard himself poked fun at the trade speculation in a tweet of his own.
  • Several of The Athletic’s baseball writers (subscription required) joined forces for a roundtable discussion about the Stroman trade, with Jayson Stark perhaps summing things up with this comment that “Nobody can confuse an entire industry like the Mets.”  Multiple writers pointed out that the Mets’ poor infield defense doesn’t suit Stroman’s grounder-heavy attack.  If Stroman is the first step to flipping Syndergaard, it’s still an odd tactic for a team in win-now mode — as Tim Britton puts it, “New York is replacing [Syndergaard] in 2020 with someone [Stroman] older, with less team control, and whose track record is not quite as good.”  From the Blue Jays’ perspective, Kaitlyn McGrath notes that adding Kay and Woods Richardson meets Toronto’s desire for pitching depth, given the relative lack of young arms in the system.
  • Today’s deal ends Stroman’s often-controversial tenure with the Jays, as the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm chronicles the multiple instances when the “fractured relationship” between Stroman and the Jays become public.  While a trade may have always been inevitable given the Blue Jays’ rebuild, “bad blood on both sides is one reason why a team desperate for pitching opted to trade one of its most talented arms,” Chisholm writes.
  • Stroman (via his Twitter account) did leave with grateful words for fans in Toronto and Canada, while also expressing excitement at returning to play for his hometown team.

Mets Acquire Marcus Stroman

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8:08PM: The deal has been officially announced.  The Mets will also receive $1.5MM in cash considerations from the Jays, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.

5:41PM: The Mets and Blue Jays have reached an agreement on a trade that will send Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman to New York, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The deal is pending medical review. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, minor-league pitchers Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson will be sent to Toronto in the deal.

Stroman emerged as perhaps the most coveted starting pitcher on the market, with contenders like the Yankees, Braves, and Astros linked to the New York native. In a surprise development, though, the Mets entered the fray as a seemingly unlikely suitor given their competitive state. However, Mets brass have been staunch in their belief that the team, while likely out of the race this season, can contend in 2020 and beyond. For that reason, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen and the front office have targeted controllable pitchers like Stroman, who will remain under team control next season.

Marcus StromanAt first glance, it’s a somewhat puzzling acquisition for a team that doesn’t boast an especially deep farm system and yet isn’t in a position to contend immediately. However, there may be more moves on the horizon. As has been speculated, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Edwin Diaz will be in high demand for contenders, meaning that New York could strengthen the farm system by dealing away those assets. Adding Stroman affords increased flexibility to sell off Major League talent while remaining competitive.

Syndergaard in particular would likely command a more impressive prospect haul than Stroman, so perhaps the Mets’ thinking is that, in trading Syndergaard and acquiring Stroman, the improvements to its prospect pool will offset any dropoff in pitching and allow the team to remain comptetive while capitalizing on the value of existing assets. Of course, the Mets may demand Major-League ready pieces in exchange for Syndergaard, supporting the notion that the club plans to avoid a rebuild.

Wheeler is in his last year of team control and is slated to hit free agency at season’s end, making him perhaps the most obvious trade candidate from the Mets’ impressive crop of starters. It’s possible that, in hopes of contending next season, the team could hang on to Wheeler and vie to keep him around for the foreseeable future. If he departs in free agency, they can collect a compensatory draft pick, and if he stays, they would boast one of the National League’s most formidable starting rotations on paper, with Jacob deGrom, Wheeler, Stroman, and Syndergaard.

After a disappointing 2018 season in which injuries limited Stroman to making just 19 starts, he has bounced back considerably this season, returning to the form that he showed in 2017, his best season. In 124 2/3 innings this year, he’s posted a 2.96 ERA, good for fifth-best in the American League. The 28-year-old is undeniably not a strikeout machine, but he makes his living by inducing weak contact and ground balls: in 2019, he’s conceded just 0.7 home runs per nine innings, which is all the more impressive given the homer-happy league environment. That ground ball style has driven a solid 3.52 FIP despite average walk and strikeout numbers.

In Kay, the Blue Jays will receive the Mets’ 4th-ranked prospect and top-ranked pitching prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. The Mets’ first-round draft selection in 2016, Kay is a 24-year-old left-hander who is pitching in the upper minors, a proximity arm who could earn a promotion this season. After dominating Double-A and earning a promotion to Triple-A, he has encountered some difficulty, as evidenced by his 6.61 ERA after seven starts. Still, this is a prospect who is on the brink of cracking the Majors, and is viewed long-term as a back-end starter—a nice contrast with the second pitcher headed to the Blue Jays in the deal.

Woods Richardson, meanwhile, was the Mets’ No. 6 prospect and 2018 second-round draftee. Just 18 years old, he has risen up prospect lists after sriking out 97 batters in 78 1/3 innings at Low-A ball. His 4.25 ERA is not a sterling mark, but a 5.6 K:BB ratio in 2019 indicates that there is potential that perhaps has yet to be unlocked. MLB Pipeline touts his ceiling, noting that no “pitcher in the system can rival the young right-hander’s upside.” Between him and Kay, the Blue Jays will boost their minor-league pitching with a combination of Major-League readiness and high upside.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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