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Marcus Stroman

Cubs Sign Marcus Stroman

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The Cubs have agreed to terms with free agent starter Marcus Stroman, the team has now officially announced.  The Tidal Sports client will receive a three-year, $71MM contract with an opt-out after the second season, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  Passan says Stroman will earn $25MM plus a potential $2MM in escalators in each of the two seasons before he must decide whether to opt out of the remaining $21MM.  The contract does not contain a no-trade clause, MLBTR has learned.

After opting out of the 2020 campaign, Stroman accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer from the Mets last winter. Stroman’s bet has paid off with a guarantee of $89.9MM over his first four free agent seasons spanning 2021-24. Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked Stroman the #11 free agent overall, projecting him to receive a five-year, $110MM guarantee.

With Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray all off the board, Stroman looks the best bet remaining to provide above-average innings over the next few years.  However, unless the Cubs add significant pieces, Stroman’s timeline doesn’t seem to match up with the club’s next window of contention, given the surprisingly short term and the opt-out clause.  On the other hand, the unexpected contract structure means the Cubs won’t be saddled with Stroman’s age-34 and 35 seasons as they would have with a five-year pact.

The 30-year-old Stroman doesn’t feature the high-octane, strikeout stuff those other top arms possess. Yet he’s nevertheless been a mid-rotation or better starter for essentially his entire career, thriving on the back of huge ground-ball rates. Stroman has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in every season as a big leaguer. His 50.8% mark in 2021 was a personal-low, but even that checked in about seven points above the league average for starters.

Those huge ground-ball tendencies — he was consistently over 60% in that category during his run with the Blue Jays — have kept Stroman largely immune to the increasing home run rate around the league. He’s never had a season allowing even one longball per nine innings pitched, an impressive achievement as the typical starter has allowed between 1.2 and 1.5 homers per nine over the past few years.

Stroman also owns strong control of his arsenal, headlined by a worm-burning sinker he uses a bit more than 40% of the time. He’s never had a season with a higher than average walk percentage, including an even 6% mark in 2021 that was a couple points lower than the 7.8% league rate. Beyond his fastball, the right-hander mixed in a slider, split and cutter more than 15% of the time, according to Statcast.

That repertoire has served Stroman well, as he’s reliably produced in recent seasons. He’s worked to a sub-4.00 ERA in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, including a personal-best 3.02 mark over 179 frames in 2021. Despite an atypically small frame for a starter, Stroman has also proven a consistent workhorse capable of shouldering fairly significant workloads. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched league-wide.

As an added bonus, Stroman is coming off his best season from a swing-and-miss perspective. He generated whiffs on a career-high 11.6% of his offerings in 2021, just north of the league mark. The New York native is typically below-average from both a strikeout and swinging strike perspective. But he’s proven capable of succeeding without many whiffs, and any uptick in swing-and-miss stuff could take his game to the next level.

In Chicago, Stroman will pair with Kyle Hendricks at the top of the rotation. Wade Miley has a spot locked down, with Adbert Alzolay also looking likely to claim a back-end spot. There’s certainly still room for upgrades over the likes of Justin Steele and Alec Mills, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, general manager Carter Hawkins and the rest of the front office further bolster that group.

Speculatively speaking, a high-strikeout arm might still be on the wish list. While Stroman’s an unquestionable upgrade to the rotation, his grounder and control oriented style broadly aligns with those of the rest of the Cubs’ starters. Chicago’s rotation ranked eighth in ground-ball rate in 2021 but finished third from the bottom in strikeout percentage. Adding some more swing-and-miss to that group could be desirable, although it’s also broadly apparent that the Cubs are content to pursue ground-ball pitchers and rely on the infield behind them to turn batted balls into outs.

The Cubs are in an organizational transition period, having traded away the core members of their 2016 World Series winner over the past year or so. The roster still seems to have too many holes to compete in 2022, with uncertainty at the back of the rotation and the position player group featuring a handful of journeyman stopgap types. Hoyer has consistently pushed back against the idea the Cubs were orchestrating a full rebuild, though, and their actions this offseason reflect that.

In addition to the Stroman signing, the Cubs claimed Miley off waivers from the division-rival Reds and added backstop Yan Gomes on a two-year pact. That doesn’t preclude further trades off the big league roster — the Gomes signing seems to make a Willson Contreras deal particularly likely, for instance — but it’s clear the Cubs aren’t content to sit at the bottom of the NL Central without making any sort of effort to be competitive.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits players from receiving multiple qualifying offers over the course of their career. Because the Mets tagged Stroman with a QO over the 2020-21 winter, they weren’t able to do so this time around. They’ll allow him to depart without receiving any form of compensation, while the Cubs won’t forfeit any draft choices or international signing bonus space to bring him in. That’s no doubt appealing for a Chicago team that needs to continue to add an influx of young talent to the organization.

Matt Spiegel reported this afternoon that the sides were in discussions, while Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted the parties were “in serious talks” shortly before Stroman’s announcement. 

Mets Now Focused On Pitching

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9:35 am: The Mets are “not overly optimistic” about signing Scherzer, despite having had conversation with agent Scott Boras, per Andy Martino of SNY (via Twitter). Gausman is their current focus. Martino adds that Gausman could make his signing decision as early as today.

8:49 am: The Mets began their offseason in earnest yesterday, adding a trio of soon-to-be 33-year-old bats to the lineup. Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha bring certainty to the beginning of new GM Billy Eppler’s tenure, as well as defensive flexibility and right-handed thump. The additions could be all they need to solidify their lineup (along with Nick Plummer as a potential reserve outfielder), but they don’t address what is arguably the Mets’ biggest need: pitching.

With Noah Syndergaard in Los Angeles and the Steven Matz debacle in the rear-view, pitching remains a priority, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Free agent Marcus Stroman fits the bill, but the worm-killing righty has been vocal of late, both about his interest in returning to New York, and about the organization’s apparent focus on other arms, per Stroman himself (via Twitter).

Former Rockies’ right-hander Jon Gray may be one of those other potential targets, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). It’s unclear if Sherman is speculating on fit or reporting team interest, but Gray is a popular name regardless, given his perceived upside as he leaves Colorado. Beyond Gray, Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman are two of the top arms on the market that the Mets may be eyeing. Either one would be an upgrade for the top of the Mets rotation, which currently has talent, but plenty of injury uncertainty in Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker.

Marcus Stroman Drawing Widespread Interest

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The free agent starting pitching market has gotten off to a fast start, but there hasn’t yet been any movement among the top tier of arms. There’s surely robust interest in each of the class’ top starters, particularly given that the market for mid-tier options has already proven quite strong. Some clarity has emerged on the bidding for one of those top hurlers: right-hander Marcus Stroman.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link) that the Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Angels and incumbent Mets are among the clubs with interest in Stroman. The Angels were already reported to be suitors, but the other four teams represent newly-known entrants into his market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com, meanwhile, adds the Mariners as another potential suitor for Stroman.

No one in that group is particularly surprising, as each of that quintet has been known to be seeking starting pitching. The Giants, Cubs and Angels have all made one or more notable rotation pickups already, but each reportedly remained in the bidding for Steven Matz even after landing other starters. The Red Sox and Mets were also known Matz suitors, and they’re both facing rotation uncertainty this winter. Boston has already seen Eduardo Rodríguez depart, while the Mets have lost Noah Syndergaard and would need to replace Stroman were he to sign elsewhere.

Stroman’s a sensible target for any team looking to bolster its rotation. The 30-year-old has been a reliable source of above-average innings for essentially the entirety of his career. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. (Stroman also opted out of the shortened 2020 campaign). Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched, consistently shouldering a heavy workload in spite of his slight frame.

Over the course of his career, Stroman typically hasn’t had an approach geared towards missing many bats. He’s coming off a career-best 11.6% swinging strike rate, though, a mark that’s a hair above the 10.9% league average for starters. Generating an average or better amount of whiffs would be more of an ancillary bonus than anything, as Stroman’s calling cards are plus strike-throwing and plenty of grounders.

The sinkerballer has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in each season of his career, routinely surpassing 60% ground-ball rates during his time with the Blue Jays. His 50.8% rate in 2021 was a career-low, but that figure was still eight points above the league mark. That consistency in inducing ground-ball contact has allowed Stroman to remain mostly impervious to longballs, as he’s never allowed even one homer per nine innings in a season during his big league career.

Stroman played out the 2021 campaign with the Mets after accepting the club’s qualifying offer last winter. Players can’t be tagged with a QO more than once in their careers, so Stroman hit the market this winter unencumbered. Signing clubs won’t have to forfeit a draft choice to land the former first-round pick, and the Mets wouldn’t receive any compensation were he to depart.

Between Stroman’s consistently strong track record and the lack of a QO, he profiles as one of the more appealing options in this winter’s class. Stroman doesn’t boast the swing-and-miss stuff of some of this offseason’s other top options, but he’s also proven capable of thriving in spite of below-average strikeout numbers. The Duke University product has posted an ERA under 4.00 in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, and his 3.02 mark in 2021 was a personal best. Entering the offseason, MLBTR placed Stroman eleventh on the Top 50 free agents, forecasting a five-year, $110MM guarantee.

Minasian: Angels Hope To “Significantly Improve” Rotation This Offseason

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TODAY: The Angels also have interest in Marcus Stroman, Alex Wood, and Noah Syndergaard, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

NOVEMBER 9, 8:58pm: Minasian reiterated his desire to land an impact starter when speaking with Alden González of ESPN this evening (Twitter link). “Frontline starting pitching is tough to acquire. It’s very difficult,” the GM acknowledged. “That being said, we’d like to significantly improve our rotation. That’s an area where we’ll definitely look for a certain type of quality.”

2:16pm: It’s become something of an offseason tradition to note that the Angels are in the market for rotation help, and that’s again the case as the 2021-22 offseason commences. Second-year general manager Perry Minasian again told reporters at this week’s GM Meetings that pitching help is his top priority — Minasian offered a similar outlook in early October — and perhaps more importantly suggested that the team isn’t operating under any payroll constraints (Twitter links via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Asked about the budget, Minasian simply replied he “wouldn’t rule us out of anything.”

It’s hardly a surprise to see the Angels again in the market for pitching help — especially with regard to the rotation. Halos starters ranked 26th in the Majors with just 776 1/3 innings pitched in 2021, and their collective 4.78 ERA ranked 22nd. In terms of fielding-independent metrics like FIP and SIERA, the Angels were a middle-of-the-pack club, and the same was true of their strikeout percentage. No team in baseball saw its starters walk a higher percentage of opponents than the Angels’ nine percent mark, however, and their rotation ranked 15th in hit batters despite tallying the fifth-fewest innings of any team in MLB.

Minasian confirmed to Harris and others that the team was represented at yesterday’s Justin Verlander showcase, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Angels have made some early inquiries with free-agent lefties Robbie Ray and Eduardo Rodriguez. Any big-market club with a need in the rotation figures to check in with the representatives for this trio of pitchers, of course, but it’s notable that all three of Verlander, Ray and Rodriguez have received qualifying offers from their respective clubs.

If the Angels were to sign anyone from that trio, they’d need to forfeit their second-highest draft selection and $500K of their international bonus pool. For some teams, that’s a firm roadblock, but it’s at least somewhat telling that the Angels don’t seem fazed by that reality. Their early interest in this group meshes well with Minasian’s sentiment that they’re not ruling anything out as they look to address a longstanding rotation need.

In the bullpen, the Angels have made a qualifying offer of their own, extending that $18.4MM proposal to closer Raisel Iglesias. Minasian hasn’t received any indication as to whether Iglesias will accept or decline the offer — the latter seems likely — but emphasized (via Harris) that the Angels would like to have Iglesias at the back of their ’pen again in 2022, whether he accepts or declines.

The Angels’ rotation currently projects to be headlined by MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani, with younger options such as Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning and Janson Junk among the options to round things out. It’s an inexperienced group, to say the least, so it’s likely the Angels will be in the market for multiple veteran arms to join the group in the offseason. Alex Cobb previously expressed interest in returning to the club but will at least be able to field interest from other clubs now that he’s a free agent.

From a payroll vantage point, the Angels currently owe a combined $108.95MM to five players: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton, David Fletcher and Ohtani. Add in a modest projection of $7.7MM in arbitration salaries — including a combined $2.8MM to non-tender candidates Junior Guerra and Phil Gosselin — as well as a slate of pre-arbitration players, and next year’s projected payroll jumps to somewhere in the $125-130MM range.

For a team that carried a $182MM payroll in 2021 and recently saw Albert Pujols’ decade-long megadeal come off the books, that’s a fair bit of flexibility. And, considering further that Justin Upton’s backloaded contract ($28MM in 2022) is off the books next winter, the outlook is a bit brighter yet. The Angels will still surely want to consider a long-term deal to keep Ohtani beyond the 2023 campaign, currently his final year of club control, but there ought to be room to bring in an arm of some note.

That said, with all of Trout, Rendon and ideally Ohtani on the books for the long haul, it might be difficult for the Angels to sign two high-end pitchers to long-term arrangements. It’s feasible that they could sign someone like Ray or Rodriguez to a long-term deal, ink another impact starter to a shorter-term arrangement — Verlander, Max Scherzer and Carlos Rodon are among the candidates for that type of deal, speculatively speaking — and then look to the trade market for another arm. The Reds, Marlins and Athletics could all look to move some starters this winter, and the Halos of have several promising young outfielders, including Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jordyn Adams. Any of the previously mentioned young rotation options could also be included in a package for a more established arm.

Regardless of how things unfold, the Angels have a good bit of payroll space at their disposal for at least the next few years. The manner in which they address the rotation this winter and the outcome of their inevitable extension talks with Ohtani will dictate how things look in 2023 and beyond.

Padres Considering Marcus Stroman

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Veteran starting pitching will be a focus of the Padres’ offseason, and the team appears prepared to shop in the high end of the free agent market.  Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Marcus Stroman has been “mentioned” as part of the Padres’ “preliminary deliberations” about targets this winter.

To be clear, it would be surprising if Stroman wasn’t at least on the radar for any pitching-needy team, and it is too early in the Padres’ offseason to tell if these in-house deliberations will result in concrete interest.  That said, Stroman would be a logical upgrade for a San Diego team looking to bolster its pitching corps.

On paper, the Padres have a full rotation of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack, and (returning from Tommy John surgery) Mike Clevinger, plus Dinelson Lamet and Ryan Weathers as further depth and Adrian Morejon as a midseason reinforcement once he completes his own TJ rehab.  However, given all the injury concerns and lack of overall performance from this group down the stretch, it isn’t surprising that San Diego’s front office is looking for reinforcements.  Stroman has had his share of injuries, though for the most part has been a durable arm, tossing at least 179 innings in four of his last five seasons.

After opting out of the 2020 season and then accepting the Mets’ qualifying offer for 2021, Stroman delivered one of the best campaigns of his seven-year career.  Stroman posted a 3.02 ERA/3.95 SIERA over 179 IP with a 50.8% grounder rate and a 5.9% walk rate that was both well above league average and Stroman’s best walk rate since his 2014 rookie season.  The right-hander’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a career best, if still a below average figure overall, though a very strong 31.6% chase rate is indication that Stroman left his share of batters guessing.

Stroman turns 31 in May, but between his track record and his 2021 success, it seems quite likely that he’ll land at least a four-year contract this winter, and maybe as many as five years.  (His market is also helped by the fact that he is ineligible for another QO.)  Signing Stroman would represent yet another major contract on the Padres’ books, and between the pre-existing commitments and a big arbitration class, the Padres might not have a ton of room to operate underneath the next Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

Both Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource calculate that the Padres managed to stay under the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, though the margin is close enough that we’ll have to wait for the official league accounting to be certain.  Then again, Padres ownership has indicated a willingness to pay the tax under the right circumstances, and it is possible the current CBT system is overhauled in collective bargaining talks.  The club could also explore moving some other salary to free up payroll and tax space, such as how the Padres has looked into trading the likes of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers in recent years.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Mets, Stroman, Padres, Cruz

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The Phillies are interested in Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin of the Cubs, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Phillies’ scouts are present at Wrigley Field today. While it may seem counterintuitive, having so many potential trade targets on one team can muddy the trade waters, so we’ll see if the Phillies and Cubs can narrow their focus to get a deal done here in the coming week. Elsewhere…

  • The Mets and Marcus Stroman have not had any discussions about a possible contract extension, per Mike Ruiz of Newsday. Stroman has played a massive role in the Mets’ ascent to the top of the NL East this season, tossing 111 1/3 innings with a 2.59 ERA/3.50 FIP. He has ranked among the top-30 starters in the game by fWAR, innings pitched, ERA, FIP, groundball rate, and walk rate. He’s heading towards free agency without a qualifying offer attached entering his age-31 season.
  • Before the Rays pulled the trigger on the deal for Nelson Cruz, the Padres made a significant push to acquire the slugger, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Cruz has a history of taking grounders at first and second base, and though it’s certainly hard to imagine a successful plan to convert the 41-year-old DH into an infielder, the Padres were willing to give it a shot in order to have his bat on the bench. What’s more, they weren’t the only National League team in pursuit, per Rosenthal.

Marcus Stroman Optimistic He Can Make His Next Start

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June 23, 3:08 pm: Stroman is still dealing with soreness in his hip, but he’s hopeful he’ll be able to make his next start, manager Luis Rojas tells reporters (including Thosar).

June 23, 11:15 am: Stroman underwent an MRI today, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the imaging came back clean. There’s no structural damage for Stroman, which should rule out a lengthy absence. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweets that Stroman is day-to-day.

June 22: Mets right-hander Marcus Stroman left this evening’s start against the Braves in the second inning after a visit from the trainer. The club later announced he’s dealing with left hip soreness. Yennsy Díaz came on in relief to replace him.

There’s no indication at this point that his departure was anything more than precautionary, but it’s nevertheless a concerning development. Given the current state of their rotation, the Mets can scarcely afford a lengthy absence from Stroman. Jacob deGrom has been otherworldly, and Taijuan Walker has been very good in his own right. Even before Stroman’s departure, though, there was plenty of uncertainty at the back of the rotation. David Peterson has struggled to a 5.31 ERA, and the final spot is already a question mark. Joey Lucchesi will undergo Tommy John surgery this week, with veteran Jerad Eickhoff and prospect Thomas Szapucki among the potential replacements. Tylor Megill, who has performed well over three starts at Triple-A Syracuse, is among the players under consideration for a promotion, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (Twitter link).

At 37-30, the Mets are leading the National League East by four games. The front office looks likely to be on the hunt for starting pitching in the coming weeks, and that urgency will only be heightened if Stroman requires an IL stint. It’s also a critical year for Stroman, who is scheduled to hit free agency at season’s end after accepting an $18.9MM qualifying offer last winter. To this point, his decision to bet on himself has looked wise, as Stroman has tossed 85 2/3 innings of 2.31 ERA/3.55 FIP ball.

Mets Owner Steve Cohen Discusses Luxury Tax, deGrom, Stroman

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Mets owner Steve Cohen met with reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) yesterday to discuss the team’s outlook in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. Most notably, Cohen was asked whether he’d be willing to sign off on a midseason acquisition that pushes the team’s competitive balance tax outlay north of the first threshold of $210MM.

“It’s something to think about because there is a price to pay if you go over for the following year or the year after,” Cohen said. “I am not going to go over for a million or two million. That’s stupid, so if you are going to do it, you are going to do it, so we’ll see what’s available.”

Cohen is alluding to the escalating penalties for teams that surpass the threshold in consecutive seasons. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, a club that exceeds the lowest threshold for the first time is subject to a 20% tax on the overage. Exceeding that threshold for a second consecutive year subjects the team to a 30% tax on the overage, while the club would pay a 50% tax on excess expenditures for a third consecutive season (and beyond) above that mark.

To calculate a team’s CBT ledger, the league takes the sum of the average annual values of each contract on the books in a season- not the actual payroll in any given year. For the Mets, that figure comes in just under $197MM in 2021, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. (Cot’s pegs their actual payroll at approximately $195.4MM). If Cohen is unwilling to go beyond the first threshold, that’d leave New York a little more than $13MM in CBT space for midseason upgrades.

Cohen didn’t explicitly state he’d be unwilling to push the team’s CBT ledger north of $210MM. Rather, he implied that it’d take one (or more) marquee additions for him to deem that worthwhile, based on the belief that the cost of higher potential penalties in future seasons would outweigh the value of making more marginal upgrades. Of course, that assumes the current luxury tax system will remain in the next CBA, which is up for negotiation this winter. The Mets did not exceed the threshold last season under the previous ownership group, so they’d be subject to the first-time payor penalty if they were to do so this year.

New York’s owner also addressed the contractual status of starters Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. Cohen confirmed the club engaged in preliminary extension discussions with deGrom in Spring Training. Those were never expected to persist into the summer, though, and Cohen indeed shot down the possibility of in-season negotiations. “I’m focused on this year,” he said. “I don’t think it’s the right moment (for extension talks). We’re focused on this year, so obviously it’s something we’re thinking about. We love Jacob.” deGrom is under contract through 2024, but his deal affords him the opportunity to opt out at the end of next season.

Cohen also suggested it was unlikely the Mets would discuss an extension with Stroman during the year. The 30-year-old returned to Queens on an $18.9MM qualifying offer over the winter, and he’s since worked to a stellar 2.34 ERA/3.66 SIERA across 84 2/3 innings. Stroman will hit free agency again next offseason, and the CBA prevents the Mets from tagging with a QO this time around.

Mets GM: “No Movement” In Any Recent Extension Talks

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Much of the discussion about the Mets in Spring Training revolved around the team’s extension negotiations with Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto. There was more urgency to work out a deal with Lindor, since the star shortstop had set an Opening Day deadline to conclude talks. Conforto, on the other hand, left open the possibility of in-season discourse.

The Mets and Lindor came to terms on a ten-year, $341MM deal just hours before the regular season began. Those negotiations seemed to keep Conforto’s situation on the back burner, as the Mets and the outfielder’s representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly did not exchange dollar figures during the spring.

Just over a month later, it doesn’t seem the parties have moved any closer to an agreement. Mets acting general manager Zack Scott told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News) that “there’s been no movement on anything contract wise for anyone” on the roster recently. That’s most notable regarding Conforto, although Scott’s statement was broad enough to suggest there’s nothing currently developing with other impending free agents Marcus Stroman or Noah Syndergaard either.

That there’s no movement on an extension in early May is not to say the Mets won’t be able to keep one or more of those players long-term. Scott didn’t suggest the Mets or any of the players were averse to future negotiations. There’s obviously still plenty of time in the season to discussion extensions with any or all of that group. Even if the players do reach the open market, nothing prevents the Mets from winning the free agent sweepstakes, just as the division-rival Phillies brought back J.T. Realmuto in January.

Conforto remains the most prominent of the Mets’ impending free agents. The 28-year-old outfielder placed seventh on MLBTR’s most recent free agent power rankings. Conforto got off to a slow start but has turned things around over the past few weeks, resulting in an overall .226/.368/.355 line over his first 114 plate appearances. That’s a step back from the cumulative .261/.365/.478 (128 wRC+) mark he compiled from 2018-20, but there’s reason to believe his bottom line numbers will improve as the season progresses.

Despite the low batting average, Conforto’s putting the bat on the ball more than ever. His 79.9% contact rate would be a career-best mark and is nearly five points higher than the league average. Meanwhile, Conforto’s swinging strike rate is at a career-low 8.5% and his plate discipline has remained strong, as evidenced by a 14.9% walk rate. His power production is down from recent seasons, but Statcast metrics suggest he’s still barreling balls at an above-average clip and making hard contact at a rate similar to past seasons. Leaguewide power production tends to improve as the year progresses and the weather gets warmer, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Conforto find some more extra-base authority in the coming weeks and months.

Stroman and Syndergaard, meanwhile, have the potential to be among the top free agent starters available. The former is again scheduled to reach the market after accepting the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer last winter. He’s off to a very strong start, working to a 2.10 ERA/3,57 SIERA over his first 34 1/3 innings. Stroman has never gotten huge strikeout totals, but he’s again finding plenty of success by throwing strikes (5.1% walk rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (55.1% grounder rate). Syndergaard is still on track to return from his March 2020 Tommy John surgery in June, giving him a couple months down the stretch to demonstrate he’s back to peak form.

East Notes: Mets, Orioles, Nationals

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Mets President Sandy Alderson said that he expects extension talks with Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto to begin soon, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Both players are scheduled for free agency after the 2021 season. Lindor, for his part, has made clear that he will not negotiate an extension beyond opening day, so the window is now for Alderson and the Mets. Alderson also put forth Noah Syndergaard’s name as a potential extension candidate as well, notes Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Syndergaard, of course, is on the way back from Tommy John surgery and won’t likely appear until mid-season, but he will also be a free agent at year’s end. Extending those three would certainly cost a chunk of change, but the Mets do have roughly $100MM coming off their payroll next offseason. Interestingly, Marcus Stroman was not mentioned as an extension candidate. His $18.9MM salary could help provide the necessary raises next season for Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard. While we’re here, let’s check in with some other clubs in the East…

  • Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins is giving up switch-hitting to bat lefty full-time, writes Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com. After a horrendous 2019, Mullins bounced back somewhat in 2020, doing enough to stay on the Major League roster to appear in 48 games and 153 plate appearances with a palatable .271/.315/.407 slash line. Mullins is trying to make the Orioles roster as a fourth outfielder, though there are certainly more at-bats available if he proves capable. Giving up his right-handed swing could force him into a more straight platoon, but he hasn’t been helped by his work on the short side of that split anyhow. For his career, Mullins has hit just .146 as a right-hander with a 26 wRC+ (versus 90 wRC+ as a lefty). The split was even more pronounced last season when he earned a 118 wRC+ as a left-handed hitter versus 34 wRC+ from the right side. If nothing else, Mullins should be able to simplify his routine by focusing on one swing.
  • Erick Fedde may have stumbled upon a solution to his wandering fastball command, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. In his first start of the spring, Fedde turned to his cutter, a pitch that has long eluded him as he has tried to establish himself as a Major League pitcher. Fedde’s cutter did not help his cause in either 2018 or 2020, per Fangraphs pitch values, though in 2019 it was his best offering. Fedde is competing for the Nats fifth starter job, though he’s not likely to win the job out of camp. With one option remaining, the Nationals have more roster flexibility with Fedde than with his competitors Joe Ross and Austin Voth. For Fedde to stick long-term, he probably needs both his sinking fastball and his cutter to work with more consistency.
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