It has been presumed for some time that the World Series-champion Red Sox were sunk in their quest for a repeat. While the club has easily kept its head above water, it has struggled to bag enough victories in a highly stratified American League.
An eight-game losing streak wrapping the trade deadline — at which Boston held pat — sent the club’s chances plummeting. By August 21st, Fangraphs’ playoff odds tracker gave the Sox a meager 1.8% chance of making the postseason.
But here’s the thing about postseason odds charts: they make for useful, rough gauges as to where a team stands at a given moment. But they can’t and don’t reflect all the nuanced factors that can influence performance swings. And the odds are based upon simulations of how the remainder of the season can play out. Thus, they necessarily change as actual results come in, and can change rather significantly in fairly short periods of time.
(The Red Sox suffered a drop of nearly fifty percentage points from July 27th through August 4th. The Mets did nearly the opposite from July 24th through August 10th — only to quickly shed many of the “gains” with a recent skid.)
With just a month of the season remaining, there are less plausible scenarios. But several of them certainly involve the Red Sox continuing to play once the regular season concludes.
After an 8-3 stretch of play — coupled with middling periods from the Rays and Indians — the BoSox have shot back up to a 9.8% chance by reckoning of the Fangraphs computers. Other systems are less optimistic: 538 puts it at 7%, Baseball-Reference at just 3.1%. But these systems are telling us the same essential thing: there’s a chance, and not just in the Lloyd Christmas sense.
The Indians just lost Jose Ramirez and are still missing some key pitchers, as are the Rays. The Athletics seem to be cresting, but who’s to say the rotation can keep outperforming ERA estimators by such a wide margin? (4.02 ERA; 4.87 xFIP; 4.94 SIERA.) Or that the Red Sox’ opposite fortunes won’t suddenly reverse? (5.02 ERA; 4.44 xFIP; 4.41 SIERA.) David Price is slated for a return, with Michael Chavis perhaps not far behind him. Boston relievers have reversed their fortunes over the past month, perhaps portending good things for high-leverage situations.
Gut out a few extra wins, and those postseason odds will keep lurching forward. Gain some momentum, and perhaps the goal will feel — and even actually be — more attainable than the numbers would suggest. This team has been there before, so there’s no questioning the capacity. And it’s arguably the best of the AL Wild Card contenders from a true-talent perspective.
That’s the argument in favor of a stirring comeback, anyway. But what do you think? Do you agree with the computer simulations, or do you believe the Red Sox will mount a successful charge? (Poll link for app users.)
They would need an insanely hot stretch. Tampa bay and Cleveland aren’t going anywhere, and Oakland is still a very solid team. They would need at least one of those teams to have a horrible September and I don’t see that happening
They’ll need more than one of those teams to have a bad September. Boston needs to jump over two of them for it to matter
important to note all three have starting staffs that are almost as bad and two are injury-riddled. Boston’s lineup is easily a step above the rest. my bet is they still dont make it due to how far back and how many teams they have yo jump, but they could very well have the best September of the bunch.
^this
And definitely will be upsetting if they miss the playoffs by only a couple games out. Especially the way they tried to coast the first few weeks.
Darkside: Yep. Yep. Yep. and…Yep. Nailed it.
Boston’s problem isn’t just on the pitching side….Don’t kid yourself….their offense is also a culprit. Piling on runs in meaningless games doesn’t make you more effective…just pads the stats…..the lineup’s of Tampa Bay and Cleveland aren’t as bad as you think and they play well with their pitching, be it starters or releivers, which is much more effective than the Red Sox.
all three are in the top six pitching staffs in all of the MLB….Boston’s ….18th…so how does that work out then?
You said all three teams starting staffs are almost as bad. Clevelands starters are Bieber 3.23 era Bauer 3.79 era Plesac 3.49 Plutko 4.34 era Clevinger 3.00 era.In what world is that a bad pitching staff. They also have a top closer. Even Tampa with all its injuries still can throw Morton and Yarbrough out there. Bostons pitching staff has no number ones twos or three.s. I take that back Rodriguez might be a 3.
Bauer???
Sorry. Brain Freeze lol
Must of got traded back. Did he throw another ball.
Typical claptrap rocky. Nice bit about the best offense, statwise in nearly every way only doing everything in blowouts.
Yea John I have no idea what he’s talking about. Among being up there in many offensive stats the Sox have a +96 run differential..6th in the league, and has been growing, the last 15 games as example.
I also don’t expect it but no one expected 108 wins last year. 2011 was so horrible as a fan. Would be fun if the last week the team is more than just mathematically alive.
Rocky7, to put it mildly, your prejudice against the Red Sox is showing. To put it more bluntly, you’re an idiot.
@deweybelongsinthehall, I like the cut of your jib!
while I’ll agree their rosters on paper don’t compare. hitting for sure an pitching is a toss up. but we do have a 120 game sample size to look at an it hasn’t mattered yet?
Sometimes it’s just not your year, an with Sale shut down , Price injured and Porcello at like a 5 ERA. well I’d bet alot that would be the year it’s not there’s lol. If I remember correctly it’s common for work series winning teams to miss the fallowing year in the MLB. Which makes total sense as pitching for that long that many innings two years in a row is almost unimaginable.
I try to be nice but a few just get me going. I grew up in CT but have lived amongst Yankee and Met fans in NY since college. Fans of all teams are a mixed bag but there seems to be more arrogant Yankee fans than Mets and Sox fans combined. Give the organization credit for developing and keeping the Yankees core four together but if Steinbrenner hadn’t been suspended, his m.o. suggests they wouldn’t have. I love good natured ribbing but I personally take nothing for granted.
I also grew up in CT amongst these 3 fan bases and I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. There was less Red Sox arrogance maybe while they were in the midst of an 86 year losing streak but honestly even then they were just as bad. After last season I honestly thought Sox fans as a group were way worse than met or yanks fans combined. They thought they were the greatest team that ever lived.
Not sure where you live now. But living and working in NY for over 30 years now, Sox fans today just to enjoy giving back for all they endured. I try to remain objective but such itself can be subjective. Used to love going to Yankee-Sox games at the old stadium. Good natured fun until the sixth inning or so when I had to remain quiet once the brews were consumed…
Actually the Red Sox need 2 of: Athletics, Rays & Indians to crumble in these last 25+ games. That ain’t happening.
Think 2011. I don’t expect it either but the fat lady hasn’t yet started to sing. Her mouth though is clearly open…
Boston always seems to have a really good season followed by a mediocre at best season. Maybe intentional as a way to build up the farm system? The world may never know
Intentionally finishing in the upper half of the league to build up the farm is an interesting strategy lol
Not to mention taking luxury tax penalties which decrease their draft pool and slid their first draft pick down…They had a big fat WS hangover this year
Could be a lot of things. The ball for example. All the extra innings the staff pitched last year is another. The team’s plan of not using them I. Spring training was a flop. Give the Yankees and Astros credit but only one team will win the Series and to a contender nothing else matters.
Dewey.. It can get to a point where getting to the WS period is good enough as a fan of certain team, then winning would be the epitome…
Been fan of Sox since before Impossible Dream Team of ’67. Seeing them go over 10y at a time, just getting to several series, then when they would? lose the 7th game in 67, ’75, then ’86 had me seeing success in just getting there for a time.
We must be the same age Johnsilver as I recall bits and pieces of 67 but remember 1968 like it was yesterday. Their recent success has allowed me to remember those close years more fondly. 78 for example was an amazing year with a lousy ending. Injuries cost NY the first half and Boston the second. 162 games to a Playoff game. I still remember the Fenway scoreboard that Sunday. “Thank you Rick Waits”. Yaz’s early homer in that playoff game, then his hit to knock in another run. Fast forward to the ninth. That play by Pineilla in the sun to keep Burleson at second. Rice’s drive would have otherwise scored the tying run. Up comes Yaz again. No matter how many times I see the replay and scream “don’t swing” he does and the ball is popped up to Nettles. 2003 was just as bad if not worse but those losses as well as 1986 only made 2004 so much more sweeter.
I’m a Yankees fan. I always worry about the Red Sox. There’s plenty of talent there, and no reason why they can’t make the playoffs and go a distance in it. I’d still pick Houston to win the AL Pennant, but the Red Sox can make some noise.
This weekend the Rays play the Indians and Oakland has to play the Yankees. Sox have to win 3 vs Angels and could come out three games back, four games back Monday morning? Then we’ll see.
Six games back after the weekend, I’m out. Goodnight been fun. Trade mookie get a couple of prospects fill in right field with a young guy And go from there 2020.
It’s not that far fetched for the Sox to make up the 5 games they’re back. Cleveland is extremely vulnerable with an up and down offense, plus the loss of Ramírez is extremely damaging. Who really thinks Tampa will be there in the end? Oakland won’t be at home for every game left.
@PopeMarley: You’re one of many that ALWAYS counts the Rays out! They’ve been holding their own all season. Not bad for a POVERTY team as most describe them. Lack of attendance, low budget but SURPRISE they’re still relevant. Having low attendance or small budget is not a prerequisite to winning or being in the post season. .
It’s more the mounting injuries to their pitching staff that has me counting out the rays at this point. Snell was a painful one
Tough road ahead for the BoSox… 3 games at Twins, 4 games at the Ray’s, 3 with Yankees, plus SF and Philly who are fighting for the NL WC. Cleveland has the hardest schedule… Rays and A’s have easier schedules..
Great schedule to me. There are teams they can gain on by beating them and at this point, every game has to be played like it’s October.
yes but they’d have to beat them to gain on them, and they only have to gain on ryem because these teams have been better. id take a win over a better team any day, but its obviously less likely.
no, but they probably have a better chance then the Indians now.
Not with that pitching they don’t…Clevelands strength is their pitching either starting or relieving….the Sox have been pretty much a mess all year long…..and the offense difference is that they can’t bash teams into submission like last year, and con’t win close 1 run games like last year either!
The Indians lost a huge piece in a somewhat patchwork offense in J-Ram and their starting staff has dealt with injuries all year. sure id take Cleveland’s rotation at this very moment, but id question if it will hold up.
Never underestimate the Sox. Their recent bears this out
They’ve been 15 back of the Yankees for a month. They’ve been six back in the wild-card for a month. What do you mean by recent?
Who even pitches in the wild card game for them, hypothetically? Price? E-Rod? Dear god.
This was my thought. I almost feel like does it even matter if they make it. Without sale it’s hard to see this team truly being able to go deep in the postseason. The remaining pitchers just aren’t that good… maybe they sneak by a wildcard game using erod and price and the few relieves that aren’t completely awful but then you’re still entering the ALDS on the road with guys like Porcello and Eovaldi makes it tough. Especially if they have to go to NY where this team has struggled all season and that’s not even taking into account the fact that price can’t pitch in Yankee stadium (or against the Yankees at all for that matter. Or against anyone really over the past month prior to the IL…)
Not price but I would throw either Eduardo or Nathan eovaldi in a wild card game. Almost like eovaldi needs a high pressure situation to wake him up.
Answer is No, not really. And wouldn’t matter much if they did as they’re unlikely to make a real run. Stranger things have happened, but doesn’t seem probable.
Simple answer, no. Complex answer, well maybe. Right now the site fivethirtyeight has them at a 7% probability to make the playoffs, so there is a non-zero probability. But in order to do so they need a) extraordinary bad play from two out of three Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa Bay and b) Rely entirely on hitting to pull them through.
I would say at this point if they are at 2 or 3 games behind in two weeks then maybe re-evaluate. But for now the bigger question seems to be what do they do to improve in the offseason and that will revolve around a decision to trade or keep Mookie Betts.
2020, like this year hinges on SP. If it is what is is paid to be they bounce back. If it is not then they repeat this year. They should not trade Mookie unless they are admitting the SP is a waste and they do not expect them to pitch to potential. They have a lot of $ coming off the books w raises for Sale, Bogaerts already known and what shouldnt be huge increases in arbitration based on this year. They will have Chavis and maybe Dalbec and maybe even Hernandez as cheap options next year in regular roles. They can spend money if they choose for a 5th starter, a bullpen arm, but dont have a lot to do and will reduce payroll.
Trade Betts trade Betts trade Betts. They have to, they must, they will.
Only if you dont plan to compete in 2020 and he directly says he wont sign long term in Boston.
No. Hard no.
There is more chance that the Red Sox will finish as a losing team than there is that they will make the playoffs. Being 15.5 games back behind the Yankees is just way too demoralizing. Sucks to suck
I dont think they will make the playoffs but I’d say it is more likely that they could make up 5 games on 2 teams than it is for them to go 8-20 the rest of the way. Despite SP dramatically underperforming and bring injured they have such a good offense they are still winning more than they are losing and that’ll continue.
Boy it must have really hurt for you when we won the WS last year. You HATE us. Haters gonna hate ♀️
I don’t trust Cleveland or Tampa at all really but having to jump two teams while being back five seems almost insurmountable. They also have a tough little stretch coming up so after that there should be a bit more clarity however.
I see what you’re saying but you need games against the guys ahead of you. It’s actually a blessing and advantage. The ball is in your court to get it done and there’s no excuses if you don’t. Can’t play the bottom half of the league And expect to pick up ground. You’ve got to beat the teams ahead of you.
my thought exactly. Sox can probably outplay all three down the stretch if they are lucky and healthier, but probably cant play better enough to jump at least two.
They need a 2007 Rockies-like run at the end of the season.
They Can And They Will!
They will need help, mostly in the form of another team or two collapsing. They’re 5 out with 28 to play. Not too long ago, the Marlins made the playoffs after being 7 1/2 games out with 17 left to play. And the 2006 Astros (still in the NL Central) nearly made the playoffs despite being 8 1/2 games out with 12 games to play..
No
28 games left. If they can manage a 22-6 record over that stretch I think they’ll make it. Highly unlikely tho.
No Chris Sale. Yeah, that’ll help.
What’s the big deal, he’s out every August anyway. Sox didn’t pitch him in spring training hoping he could be healthy this time of year, but noooo that didn’t work either.
They have been underwhelming for 5 months. After 132 games you are what your record says. Sorry Matt Vasgersian, ARod and those who keep insisting at MLB network that some run is coming, Boston gets in and they are a force no one wants to play.
Short answer: no
No, but they can eliminate the Rays in a 4 game stretch in September. That’s their path and they’d have to hope the A’s also had a mini collapse.
Or the Rays can eliminate the Sox as has been demonstrated already this season @ 9-6.
I guess you haven’t watched the games they played at Tropicana field this year. Red Sox crush them down there. We’ve lost all of our home games against the Rays
or, or, or. this is a hypothetical situation, and being 9-6 against a team doesn’t mean they cant sweep you or even with 3 of 4.
Playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I’ll be happy if we win another game! Playoffs?
I think the Red Sox have a shot. They will finish ahead of Tampa. Cleveland will be a wild card team given they play in the Central. That leaves the A’s. Will they sputter and play less than .500 ball? Could happen. The Red Sox need to sweep the Angels and be good against the Yankees and Rays.
The A’s have a very easy schedule the rest of the way. Only NYY & HOU are playing for anything. When the non-contenders start playing prospects in September the A’s should have an easy road.
LOL. This is joke, right?
No, they won’t make the playoffs, period. It’s embarrassing that with Tampa Bay’s payroll that they finish higher in the standings than the Sox. Just plain unacceptable.
It happens, it would be embarrassing if it happened frequently. Sox are coming off a historic 2018 championship season, have won the division 3 years in a row. Their SP has way underperformed, Cora hopefully learns from his spring mistake, they come back hungry again in 2020. Not that big of a deal, just one wasted season.
That’s why they play the games. Money is for hot stove talk.
But I know where your coming from.
It’s embarrassing to put a team on the field at Tropicana every night with the payroll the Rays have been willing to put forth.
Does the owner even want to win? With that payroll? Nice job by the players and effort of everyone involved on the field to win like they do this year and a few other years. But embarrassing ?? wow the owners of the Rays certainly are embarrassing.
a real embarrassment would be falling out of the wild card race when you were in the best position to make a deal for a player at a position of need. they have so little money on the payroll and not enough 40 man spaces to house all their prospects, and a Zack Greinke could have really helped.
NO
I would love to see the red sox pull this off but after watching them all season and knowing how bad the starting rotation is, they will fall a few games short of a wildcard spot. And at the end of the day it doesn’t really matter because they would probably lose the wildcard game anyways and even if they did make it to the ALDS they would be limping through every game. Astros, Yankees and Twins are the only AL teams that really have a chance and possibly the Indians.
With the fake baseball and the dumpires fixing things, the Red Sox have zero chance. Get the strike zone right and use real baseballs, and then we can talk.
TL;DR
I can only assume this article is 1,000 words which can be effectively condensed to one.
No.
Red Sox, Rays, and Indians have 28 games left. A’s have 30. If all three of Rays, Indians, and A’s play .500 the rest of the way, the Sox will have to go 20-8 to pass both the Rays and A’s. Difficult to see all of those things happen, but not impossible.
Those three teams are a combined 16 -14 in the last 30 games (each team last 10.) Red Sox are 7 -3. Keeping hope alive.
i remember saying in 2011 “the red sox just need to play .500 ball to make the postseason”
oops
Red Sox suck! Too little and too late.
We’ll know more after this weekend. They better be just 4 games maybe four and a half out on Monday morning. Then we’ll go from there.
In sports it seems like if you say the word “if” more than once it’s not going to happen. In this case you’re counting on four things to happen: 1) Red Sox play unlike they have all year; 2) Rays suck; 3) A’s suck; 4) Indians are terrible. Yes, there are two wildcard slots but presumably if any of the three teams is any good the probability of getting one of those spots goes down considerably.
Don’t get me wrong. I think it’s highly likely the A’s and Rays play okay but not great. But I don’t think it’s highly likely that the Red Sox play like the best team in baseball, or at least I think it’s just as likely the Rays or A’s also play well.
might as well rename the poll to “do you want the red sox in the postseason” because people act like. 4-5 game deficit is insurmountable, lol, it’s more like they just don’t want them in there (even though they will be)
I’m not sure if the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs or not but I will say if the Sox can get in and win the one game toss up no team is going to want to face the defending champs at that point.