Details surrounding Aaron Sanchez‘s shoulder surgery last week remain unusually sparse, but Astros manager A.J. Hinch indicated to reporters today that Sanchez’s rehab process could carry into the 2020 season (Twitter link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).
The uncertainty surrounding Sanchez’s readiness for the 2020 season only further muddies the Astros’ decision on whether to tender him a contract this winter. The 27-year-old Sanchez was a paid a relatively modest $3.9MM salary in 2019 and struggled when healthy enough to take the ball, so his forthcoming arbitration raise will be anything but exorbitant. But, if the Astros are concerned that the right-hander will miss a substantial portion of the 2020 campaign, then it’s possible they could simply move on. Doing so just months after trading Derek Fisher to acquire Sanchez and Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays certainly wouldn’t be an ideal outcome, but spending on a player whose health outlook is cloudy enough could potentially prove more detrimental yet.
There’s reason for the Astros to roll the dice on Sanchez, of course. Although he’s been consistently plagued by fingernail and blister issues in recent seasons, he was excellent in Toronto as recently as 2016, when he pitched 192 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with 7.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and an outstanding 54.4 percent ground-ball rate. Add in that Sanchez can be retained at a relatively low rate and that the ‘Stros could lose Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Collin McHugh to free agency this winter, and a low-cost flier on Sanchez has its appeal.
Then again, the Astros were able to wait out the starting pitching market and sign Miley for a $4.5MM guarantee last winter. They could seek a similarly low-cost match with a free-agent starter this winter rather than promise a comparable sum to Sanchez in arbitration. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke will return to front next year’s rotation, and the Astros will also likely have Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery. Houston does already have more than $156MM committed to the 2020 payroll — not including arbitration raises for Carlos Correa, Brad Peacock, Roberto Osuna, Jake Marisnick, Biagini and a likely repeat of McCullers’ $4.1MM salary — so the team may not be keen on further spending on a player with this level of uncertainty.
The Angels overpaid for both Cahill and Harvey last offseason, and Garrett Richards has a somewhat more desirable track record when healthy.
That said, wouldn’t an arbitration raise on Sanchez’s $3.9MM be a worthwhile risk given what the aforementioned pitchers and others have been paid over the last few years?
Not if they could convince him to stay to be the 4th or 5th starter on a new cheaper contract after non tendering him. Lots of teams may be interested in trying to convert him to the pen but Boras has stated Sanchez wants to start. If Houston gave him like $2.5m and waited out his injury treatment then it might be a win win.
Just because other teams overpaid doesn’t mean the Astros will. They already
have a high payroll for next year…..
It’s just been one injury after another for Sanchez.
Two things:
1. They could non tender him and still work out a mutually beneficial contract with Sanchez.
2. Toronto won that trade. (Change my mind)
Watching Derek Fisher in Toronto so far hasn’t changed your mind already?
Small sample size. I think the offseason knowing he has a very good chance at an opening day job might motivate him to do the work he needs to be a consistent MLB level above replacement guy.
He should be doing that now…..
Great catch tonight. Seems like they’re sticking with him and giving him every chance now.
Change your mind? Really no one won that trade at this point. It’s far too early to say. It’s not the immediate loss that some Jays fans thought but it’s not a win at this point. Stevenson doesn’t have much of a ceiling. Sanchez’s tenure in Houston is likely over. And Biagini and Fisher both look like crap thus far. It’s a small sample size for sure, but Fisher has over 350 ABS in the bigs and the hit tool has not been present whatsoever. If it ever comes you have a pretty interesting player but he’s out of options and running out of time.
At this point the only “win” is that the Jays saved money w the poor performance they’ve gotten. But of course it wasn’t a tremendous amount either.
Blue Jays lost the deal. They sold low and sold a starting pitcher they could have used next year (which they will spend a few million to acquire a veteran starter). Option 2 was to deal Giles in the offseason and make Sanchez the closer. Either way, to trade for an OF when you already have 4 plus Alford made zero sense. Fisher came here to play a little more than half the time. Had Sanchez and company been traded for a full fledged starting player, I would agree nobody won the trade. In fact, nobody won the trade; the Blue Jays lost the trade. Big difference.
You really couldnt be more wrong. Like many other teams, the Jays brass do not see Sanchez as a starter any longer. Boras seemed to squash that with respect to Toronto, at least. So you think the rebuilding Jays were going to pay Sanchez $4 mil to be a below replacement starter? Well you’d be wrong.
Next, they wanted to move Giles at the deadline this year but he got hurt. Nothing can be done about that.
Moving on, they do not have 4 outfielders. And Alford is on his last chance and will likely be traded himself.
Lastly, Sanchez didnt have enough value to get an everyday player. They got what they could and still had to sweeten the pot with cal to get it done.
They can probably resign Sanchez this offseason if they really want to considering he’s highly likely to be nontendered. Hard to say you lost a trade when you traded a C level prospect, a non tender candidate and a reliever who has gotten shelled.
Coldbeer – You do not trade a guy at his lowest point (Sanchez). Clearly you did not learn a thing from the Donaldson situation.
Giles was hurt. Yes. Nobody is questioning that. Deal him in the offseason.
Let’s count: Gurriel, Grichuk, Teoscar, McKinney – that’s 4 outfielders. Now, I did not say they were 4 GREAT outfielders. As for Alford they should have dealt him at the 2016 deadline for a better return than Melvin Upton. That’s another story.
Lastly, you are correct about Sanchez’ value. That….is why….you do not….trade him. Especially when you are a team needing arms to fill spots in 2020.
Badda Bing!
The best asset in this trade may be Cal Stevenson…. the prospect that barely ranked in the Blue Jays top 30 before the trade.
I’m not going to try and change your mind… but who won and lost this trade is becoming an irrelevant argument pretty quickly.
Its supposed to be a fun convo and sometime it gets good baseball discussion going. I think Stevenson has potential, but Fisher still may have more and be more ready with the new environment he is in now.
They gave up one lotto ticket and got one lotto ticket back. I think it’s more than likely this just turns out to a nothing trade that Toronto fans are known to over exaggerate but who knows.
The fan calling Fisher a lotto ticket is exaggerating.
Stop being a dipshit
Not appropriate JDGoat. Not at all.
Why not bring him back he will be cheap compared to what other starters are getting paid and even tho he has some injury history Houston has shown what they can do to pitchers. Let me him heal and let Houston do what they do best and that’s bring the most out of a pitcher, Gerrit and Justin were not on the same level that they are at now