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Archives for September 2019

Starlin Castro: Back From The Abyss

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As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.

This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.

So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…

Castro before July:

  • Groundball percentage: 52.2
  • Fly ball percentage: 30.9
  • Line drive percentage: 16.7
  • Pull percentage: 40.8
  • Infield fly percentage: 10.7
  • Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1

Castro since:

  • Groundball percentage: 43.9
  • Flyball percentage: 33.3
  • Line drive percentage: 22.7
  • Pull percentage: 49.5
  • Infield fly percentage: 7.6
  • Hard-hit percentage: 43.4

All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.

Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Designate Williams Jerez

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The Giants have designated lefty Williams Jerez, per a club announcement. That opens a roster space for the return of veteran hurler Johnny Cueto, who’ll start tonight after working back from Tommy John surgery.

The San Francisco organization carried Jerez on the 40-man all year long after picking him up in a late-spring trade. The 27-year-old permitted only a pair of earned runs in his six MLB innings, but allowed six free passes while striking out four.

Otherwise, Jerez turned in solid numbers at Triple-A this year, working to a 3.86 ERA with 9.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 over 56 frames. He was especially effective against opposing lefties, holding them to a .574 OPS.

Mariners Promote 4 Prospects, Designate Ryan Court

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The Mariners announced the promotion of four prospects: righty Justin Dunn, outfielder Kyle Lewis, infielder Donnie Walton, and righty Art Warren. To create 40-man roster space, the club designated utilityman Ryan Court for assignment.

This multi-part move comes as no surprise, as the Seattle organization was reportedly preparing to call up Dunn (link) and Lewis (link) just yesterday. Both have ranked among the organization’s very best prospects.

Walton and Warren are lesser-known entities, but still hold promise of their own. Both ranked toward the back of the club’s latest top-thirty prospect list at MLB.com, though of course the import of such a designation varies depending upon the depth of a system.

Walton, 25, spent the season turning in good numbers at the Double-A level. Over 558 plate appearances, he slashed a sturdy .300/.390/.427 with 11 home runs. He’d have been eligible to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 draft but for the move to add him to the 40-man.

As for Warren, he already went through a winter of Rule 5 eligibility without being taken. This time, he’ll be protected by the M’s. At 26 years of age, Warren worked to a 1.71 ERA with 11.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 31 2/3 innings as Walton’s teammate.

The 31-year-old Court finally got his first shot at the majors this year in Seattle, but wasn’t able to stake out a claim to a long-term job. It was still a rewarding season, as he logged his first MLB hit and first home run in a brief showing after entering the campaign in the indy ball ranks. Court is a .262/.355/.423 hitter in over a thousand plate appearances at the highest level of the minors.

Byron Buxton To Undergo Labrum Surgery

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Twins center fielder Byron Buxton is undergoing surgery to fix his left (non-throwing) shoulder labrum, skipper Rocco Baldelli told reporters including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). That’ll obviously end his 2019 season.

It had emerged earlier today that some kind of surgical outcome was likely. But this still represents a major development in the situation. Precise details of Buxton’s procedure remain unknown — and will depend upon what’s found by surgeons — but the baseline expectation is of a five-to-six-month recovery process. (Via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, on Twitter.)

Spring Training will begin in mid-February of 2020. That’ll be right at the six-month mark from today’s procedure. Depending upon the severity of the damage, extent of the work, and course of rehab, it seems Buxton’s full availability at the outset of camp is possible but hardly assured.

The Twins will be gathering information on Buxton’s progress and outlook throughout the rehab process. But the club is going to have to account for the uncertainty in some manner. Just how it might impact the offseason decisionmaking remains to be seen.

As we examined further in the above-linked story, this news will force the Twins into a sub-optimal outfield alignment down the stretch and into the postseason. It takes a player out of the mix who had been playing at a 5 to 6 WAR full-season pace. Looking forward, Buxton’s limited playing time will limit his ability to secure a big raise on top of his current salary of $1.75MM, though his strong offensive numbers will certainly support a bump. A Super Two qualifier this year, Buxton remains eligible to go through the arb process three more times.

Yankees Designate Adonis Rosa

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The Yankees announced today that they have designated Adonis Rosa for assignment. His roster spot will go to fellow right-hander Ben Heller, who was activated from the 60-day injured list.

Rosa, 25, appeared in one MLB contest this year with the Yanks — his first as a professional. He spent most of the season in the upper minors, pitching to a cumulative 4.18 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 103 1/3 innings. Clearly, the New York organization didn’t view him as a significant near-term contributor.

The Yankees also announced that outfield Mike Tauchman has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is not expected to return to action this year.

Athletics Claim Beau Taylor, Designate Chris Herrmann

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The Athletics announced today that they have claimed Beau Taylor off waivers from the Blue Jays. To clear 40-man space, the club designated fellow backstop Chris Herrmann for assignment.

Taylor, 29, lands back with the A’s after previously going from Oakland to Toronto through an August waiver claim. He had appeared in just one MLB contest with his new team and struggled at the plate in brief Triple-A action before being designated recently.

Before that recent stint, Taylor had spent his entire career with the Athletics — much of it at the Double-A level (307 games in parts of six seasons) — so he’s obviously a familiar face. He had put up career-best offensive numbers this year at Triple-A, slashing .257/.408/.461 in 240 PCL plate appearances before the mid-season move.

As for Herrmann, 31, he just hasn’t delivered the kind of offensive numbers the A’s anticipated when they inked him to a $1MM deal. Since returning from knee surgery, he has hit a meager .202/.280/.274 with a single long ball and 29 strikeouts in 94 trips to the plate.

Baldelli: Twins “Bracing” For Possibility That Buxton Won’t Return In 2019

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12:55pm: It “sounds like” Buxton is slated to undergo surgery this afternoon, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North 1500 AM.

12:25pm: The Twins have been playing without Byron Buxton in a full-time capacity since Aug. 1 thanks to a shoulder injury, and manager Rocco Baldelli indicated today on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that the organization is “bracing” for the news that Buxton won’t return in 2019 (Twitter link, with audio).

“Surgery is an option here,” said Baldelli after relaying that Buxton saw a specialist in California this week. “We’re basically sitting down and bracing for the realization that this could be his season ending right now. We basically are going to see what it looks like going forward. ’Buck’ is an enormous part of what we do here. The contributions he makes on the field are fantastic, obviously — he’s one of the best defenders in the world. That being said, the energy he brings and the lift that he brings to the team is also huge.”

Buxton indeed ranks as one of the premier defenders in the sport, regardless of position. His 10 Defensive Runs Saved rank sixth among Major League center fielders despite having played fewer innings than anyone ahead of him, and his overall Ultimate Zone Rating (+8.8) ranks 10th among all fielders at any position. He also places fourth in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (+12) despite fewer chances than the three players ahead of him: Victor Robles, Kevin Kiermaier and Lorenzo Cain. Of course, the reckless abandon with which Buxton plays the outfield both contributes to his penchant for rangy, highlight-reel plays and puts him at greater risk for injury; his current shoulder subluxation was sustained when crashing into the center field wall at Marlins Park more than a month ago.

Beyond his defensive prowess, Buxton has enjoyed some pronounced improvement at the plate. In 295 plate appearances, he’s turned in a .262/.313/.513 slash with 10 home runs, 30 doubles, four triples and 14 stolen bases (in 17 attempts). Buxton’s speed has allowed him to rack up more doubles than singles (27) on the season, and his 23.1 percent strikeout rate is down nearly seven percent from a season ago. In all, he’s been worth 2.7 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, and 3.2 WAR, per Baseball-Reference, in less than a half season’s worth of plate appearances. Needless to say, his loss absence has been profoundly felt by the Twins.

If Buxton is indeed lost for the year, Baldelli suggests that Max Kepler will continue to man center field on a regular basis for Minnesota. That’s a drop-off from a defensive standpoint, but perhaps not to the extent one would think. Kepler has been strong in center himself this season (+4 DRS, +3.1 UZR in 452 innings), and he’s tied for 13th among 93 qualified outfielders with seven outs above average, per Statcast. Losing Buxton fotr the balance of the 2019 season and postseason would likely mean mixing and matching with Jake Cave, Marwin Gonzalez and LaMonte Wade Jr. in right field, with Eddie Rosario continuing as the primary left fielder.

Buxton’s bounceback season at the dish will surely benefit him in arbitration this winter, when he’ll be due for a raise on this year’s $1.75MM salary. However, his general lack of plate appearances and another season truncated by injury will also prevent him from maximizing his earnings in that process. The Twins control Buxton through the 2022 season.

Jonny Venters Will Try To Continue Pitching

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No one would blame veteran left-hander Jonny Venters if he tapped out, so to speak, following last month’s shoulder surgery. The 34-year-old has already undergone three Tommy John surgeries and a fourth elbow procedure in his career, won 2018 Comeback Player of the Year honors, been named to an All-Star team and pitched in parts of three separate postseasons. Venters, though, in an excellent interview with Jesse Daugherty of the Washington Post, indicated that he plans to at least try to continue his career.

“I’ll probably give it all I can and hope for the best,” the lefty said roughly a month after his fifth major arm surgery. “And if it doesn’t [work out], we’ll figure something else out, you know?”

Venters’ latest procedure repaired a torn capsule in his left shoulder and will keep from throwing a baseball until at least December. He’ll assuredly have to sign a minor league contract somewhere in hopes of eventually proving himself capable of pitching on a big league mound once again, but the southpaw is surely accustomed to that sort of free-agent experience by now. He’s already signed four minor league contracts since undergoing his first major surgery.

Venters went more than a half decade between Major League appearances in 2012 and 2018, eventually working his way back from those four elbow surgeries to give the Rays and Braves 34 1/3 sharp innings last year. He’d arguably have been deserving of Comeback Player of the Year honors simply for getting back to a mound and appearing in 50 games — regardless of the results. It certainly didn’t hurt, however, that he not only capped off his near-miraculous return to the mound but picked back up as an effective bullpen piece; the tenacious lefty turned in a 3.67 ERA with a 27-to-16 K/BB ratio and a sky-high 69.1 percent grounder rate in that time.

The 2019 season clearly didn’t go as well for Venters. He walked eight men and served up three big flies through his first 4 2/3 innings before being released by the Braves, and his Nationals tenure was both brief and lackluster. He appeared in just three games for the Nats and allowed a pair of earned runs on three hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings.

Ozuna: Returning To Cardinals Is “My Priority”

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Marcell Ozuna will be a free agent for the first time in his career this winter, but the slugging corner outfielder doesn’t sound eager to play elsewhere next season. Asked by Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about a possible return to the Cardinals in 2020 and beyond, Ozuna candidly replied: “That’s my priority. My agents just have to do their job.”

It’s not the first time that Ozuna has voiced a preference to remain with the Cardinals, but his most recent statements were more emphatic than previous comments on the matter. Hummel also chats with Ozuna about the excitement over his first pennant race before talking with Adam Wainwright about the team’s young arms, so Cards fans will want to check out the column in its entirety.

Ozuna will have age on his side in free agency, as he won’t turn 29 until November. He also may have rediscovered the pop he lost during a 2018 season that was marred by shoulder troubles; Ozuna slugged 37 homers with a .237 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) in 2017 but managed to connect on just 23 round-trippers with a .153 ISO in 2018. This year, he’s batted at a .255/.333/.496 clip with 26 home runs and a .241 ISO through 465 plate appearances (but missed time due to fractured fingers). He’s also walking at a career-best 10.4 percent clip and has swiped a career-best 12 bases in just 13 attempts.

The Cardinals (and other interested suitors) will be tasked with determining whether improved health in Ozuna’s shoulder led to that restored pop or whether the reemergence of his power stroke is more closely linked to changes to the composition of the 2019 baseball that have resulted in a league-wide home run boom. Both have probably contributed to some degree, but each team could figures to have a varying view on the extent to which each of those factors has impacted Ozuna’s output. Those opinions and projections will inform the strength of offers he receives on the open market.

Another critical factor for Ozuna will be draft-pick compensation, as it seems probable that the Cardinals will issue him a one-year qualifying offer. This year’s QO will fall around the $18MM mark, but Ozuna and his reps at MDR Sports Management will likely feel that a more substantial guarantee awaits in free agency (even if it’s not quite at such a hefty annual value). Ozuna’s $12.25MM salary for the 2019 season has pushed his career earnings north of $26MM, giving him plenty of financial security if and when he declines the QO and explores the open market. Ozuna checked in at No. 8 on the July update to MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings.

Of course, it takes two sides to make a deal, and looking at the situation from the Cardinals’ vantage point, it’s less clear that an Ozuna reunion will be a priority. Dexter Fowler is still owed $33MM through 2021 (including the annualized payouts of his deferred signing bonus), and his $82.5MM contract included full no-trade protection. As such, he’s unlikely to be moved and can be expected to hold down one of the outfield spots in 2020 with a fair degree of regularity. Meanwhile, 24-year-old slugger Tyler O’Neill seems ready for a legitimate audition in left field, even if his strikeout issues remain a concern. St. Louis also has one of the game’s premier defenders in center (Harrison Bader), one of the game’s best outfield prospects (Dylan Carlson) and a slew of utility options/part-time outfield options.

Re-signing Ozuna could allow president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch the opportunity to trade from that impressive crop of outfield talent, but there’s an easy argument that the Cards are better off taking the draft pick and allocating those financial resources elsewhere. Both Wainwright and Michael Wacha will be free agents at season’s end — Wacha tells Hummel he’d also like to return — and the bullpen has been an ongoing need in St. Louis despite considerable front-office efforts to improve it. The Cardinals already have $139MM committed to the 2020 season, not including modest first-time arbitration raises for righties John Gant and John Brebbia. This year’s payroll sits at roughly $165MM, so it’d certainly be defensible to see them forgo a weighty annual salary for Ozuna and spend their remaining dollars to bolster the pitching staff.

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