As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.
This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.
So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…
Castro before July:
- Groundball percentage: 52.2
- Fly ball percentage: 30.9
- Line drive percentage: 16.7
- Pull percentage: 40.8
- Infield fly percentage: 10.7
- Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1
Castro since:
- Groundball percentage: 43.9
- Flyball percentage: 33.3
- Line drive percentage: 22.7
- Pull percentage: 49.5
- Infield fly percentage: 7.6
- Hard-hit percentage: 43.4
All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.
Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Waiting for old schoolers to attempt to discredit the statistics.
How does one discredit actual real statistics?
Starlin has always been underrated. he was certianly having a bad year for a while, but he has a heck of a track record of solid hitting, a career that possibly be called on the track to the Hall in earlier eras of baseball. whoever signs him when he hits free agency will be getting a bargain.
I could see the Angels or Twins signing him. Possibly the Rockies for the simple reason that they like to block prospects.
He’d fit on a lot of teams. He’d be a great pickup for a contender looking for a multi-position backup who would play a lot.
2 years, $13 million
There’s no clear fit (especially now) but I always thought Castro fit the profile of a Halos middle infielder. Contact heavy approach, a bit of pop every so often, capable at 3 INF positions. Reminds me of Maicer Izturis, Alberto Callaspo, Erik Aybar days
Cubs should swap out Russell for Castro. Bring him home.
Russell has ZERO trade value.
Non-tender Russell, sign Castro. But Russell might be cheaper, Cubs will need $ to redo BP next year.
There’s another story line you didn’t mention: The Marlins could trade Castro.
A player like Castro who can seemingly turn it on when it counts is quite valuable during a contract year. And if the Marlins ate the $1M buyout and pitched in a little more money another team might have interest, thinking they’re catching lightening in a bottle. And there really isn’t a bad 1 year contract.
So don’t assume Castro is headed toward free agency next year.
The Marlins cannot trade Castro. The trading deadline is over. The Marlins will not exercise the 2020 option.
Unless Cubs are sending the fish a top 10 prospect within their system there’s no reason for them to pickup the buyout plus whatever else millions. As rayrayner stated, it’s more likely he’s Marlins buy him out, resulting Castro in becoming a free agent.
No team can trade for him now. And no team would spend anything in trade knowing he will be a free agent once the fish let him walk
Starlin can probably thank me for dropping him from my fantasy team after the first half of the season. Yes, I have that kind of power lol
Would love to see him on the Pirates, moving Frazier to a utility roll. But alas, that costs money that the club won’t spend.
The Pirates have a lot of young middle infielders who show promise.
How do you know you would not be getting the first half Castro?
The Pirates need a boxing coach. Or a hockey coach.
Still in the hunt for 3,000 hits
Joke right?
2250. Over/under.