Houston’s currently fighting for its life against Tampa Bay in the ALDS, but regardless of whether the Astros advance, they could be a few weeks away from losing one of their most valuable players to free agency. Right-handed ace and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is on the cusp of reaching the open market, where his forthcoming contract figures to easily outdo the majority of his competitors’ next deals. In fact, the lone soon-to-be free agent who’s likely to wind up in Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon. Both players are lining up for contracts in the $200MM range, which seems like an especially risky number for a pitcher. But how have those investments on pitchers worked out thus far? Let’s take a look at the few $200MM-plus guarantees given out to hurlers, keeping in mind that past successes or failures obviously do not determine whether Cole will thrive or fall flat once he receives his mega-contract…
David Price, LHP, Red Sox (seven years, $217MM)
- Still the owner of the richest deal ever for a pitcher, Price hasn’t continued as an ace since he signed with the Red Sox entering the 2016 season. At that point, Price was a world-class run stopper who’d already logged five seasons with at least 200 innings. The Boston version has hit the 200 mark just once, though, and has put up a 3.84 ERA/3.74 FIP with 9.32 K/9 and 2.39 BB/9 across 588 frames. On paper, that production’s absolutely fine, but the Red Sox probably expected more when they splurged on Price almost a half-decade ago. Of course, thanks in part to Price, the Red Sox won the World Series a year ago. Flags fly forever.
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers (seven years, $215MM)
- Admittedly, it’s debatable whether we should count this deal. After all, Kershaw essentially opted out of it last offseason (when he had two years and $65MM left on the pact) in favor of a three-year, $93MM contract to stick with the Dodgers. No matter, Kershaw has been nothing short of outstanding since signing. Therefore, even if the eight-time All-Star and three-time NL Cy Young winner would have stayed with his previous contract, the Dodgers certainly wouldn’t have buyer’s remorse.
Max Scherzer, RHP, Nationals (seven years, $210MM)
- Speaking of not regretting a $200MM-plus investment on a pitcher … we arrive at the Nationals, who are surely thrilled with the free-agent gamble they took on the ex-Tiger Scherzer going into 2016. Scherzer, who has been an All-Star every year and won a pair of NL Cy Youngs since then, remains among the game’s most imposing hurlers to this day. The 35-year-old’s fresh off yet another tremendous (albeit injury-limited) regular season and has been a key figure in what could be a stunning first-round playoff upset of the juggernaut Dodgers.
Zack Greinke, RHP, Astros (six years, $206.5MM)
- Arizona poured its financial resources into Greinke entering 2016, though the headline-stealing addition didn’t quite pay off the way the club hoped. But that’s not a knock on Greinke, who excelled as a D-back. The team’s payroll just couldn’t support his ongoing presence, so it dealt Greinke to the Astros at this summer’s trade deadline. The 35-year-old, however, has enjoyed the latest terrific season of his career between the two organizations. Greinke’s $200MM-plus payday may not have been the most responsible move for an Arizona franchise that’s not a huge spender, but his production has been worthy of it.
If the above group shows us anything, it’s that no pitcher in the $200MM club has flopped (some have been great). That doesn’t mean Cole will follow in their footsteps if he scores a similar contract, but it’s hard to bet against a dominant, flamethrowing workhorse who still has another season in his 20s to come.
This post really supports the belief that you should focus developing your offense and spend on pitching.
Yah for real. All these pitchers worked out
i bave big benis !
I know cole is solid, but I wouldn’t put him on the same list as most these guys. Not even prices cy young year
Cole is insane this year but his production is so reliant on velocity, which won’t last much longer, that I would be worried about giving him a long term deal. That being said, there are a few rich teams in win now mode so he will get his big contract. Padres, Phillies, and Angels need him desperately. If the Yankees miss the World Series, then they will pay him bigly. Maybe the most bigly a pitcher has ever been paid.
“Cole is insane this year but his production is so reliant on velocity, which won’t last much longer,”
Why? You should read Bill James break down the longevity of power pitchers.
Yes.
Break down the longevity of power pitchers when the examples are from decades of baseball with no PED testing.
Agree on Coles to NY but my take is regardless of who wins in 2019, it will be between the Yankees and the Astros.
He’s been better this year than Price was in his Cy Young year. The only stat that he is worse in than Price was is HR/9.
Price was young when he won the Cy Young. Cole is getting old fast and no one knows whether he will age well.
He’s getting old fast? As far as “none knows”, No one knows Mike Trout will age well. Your point isn’t very profound or well researched.
he is aging fast? like faster than 1 year at a time?
Like aging fast as in, just two years ago he was a guy with tons of promise and small results. Now he’ll be entering the new contract on the wrong side of thirty and only one transcendent year.
Aging fast.
Are you talking about a different pitcher? Cole will 29 next year., and will have had three “transcendent” years (2015, 2018, 2019) where he finished top 5 in the Cy. A similar comp would be Scherzer who got his contact a year older than Cole will be. Was Scherzer a bad contract??
Ha
He’ll be 29.A 7 year deal would take him to 35.He’s worth the risk.
I halfway agree with you…. Kershaw and Scherzer are better pitchers,but Coles is as good as Price or Greinke.
I don’t understand how this is an evaluation, you didn’t use WAR/$, you didn’t even use and stat to $$ estimator nor did you post stats for all players. This isn’t an evaluation so much as an opinion piece.
Bwcause pitcher WAR is flawed and WAR/$ is a ridiculous stat. The only guy in the group who flopped is Price. The others are not debatable.
Thanks for your opinion
Agreed.
Past performance has as little to do with how one will do in the future as anything else and there are so many stats now that can be used to refute or support an opinion. Yes an opinion. They should be used like medical records as a tool in evaluating and forming that opinion. But don’t forget your eyes. How about considering the strike zone that seems to be changing more and more? What about the sloppy or exceptional defense that saved or forced more pitches at a crucial time or what about how the reliever came in and did his job but or only got that last out after allowing inherited runners to score?
Sooo guys who have success in the past are not more likely to succeed than someone who is average or has struggled? Tell that to Kershaw, Scherzer, Strasburg, Verlander, Greinke, Sale, Sabathia, Cole, Degrom, Bumgarner, Tanaka, Ryu, just to name a few ….Yeah I guess no point in saying these guys could be really good next year. The relievers and defense saved them all so they are junk I guess.
You’re missing my point purplewidow or just don’t agree. In today’s game, the eye test is overlooked. The game is played on a field not in a computer.
$$/WAR is stupid. WAR itself is fine for comparing players but it’s beyond meaningless to try to use the $$/WAR figures for anything other than the novelty. That’s not how WAR works and that’s not how contracts work.
It’s a shame Madison Bumgarner made such little money comparatively with the SF Giants.
If anyone deserved to get paid it was him.
Why? His off field antics cost the team it’s last year of a title window.
Mad Bum will be a Padre next year and make more than he is worth so save your tears for someone else.
Antics? An off-season dirt bike accident? You make it sound like the guy is a cokehead.
It wasn’t the off-season
I think he made it sound like the guy did something stupid. So did Bob Moose. However that turned out a little worse.
That is some reference!
Now that is something I can agree with. Not he’ll be a Padre, but his off field antics.
I have no idea where MadBum will sign next year.
He shouldn’t have been riding a dirt bike. Violation of his contract. Of course SF didn’t press it so as not to ” hurt his feelings.”
They probably didn’t press it because he’s a San Francisco legend who they ended up getting all his prime years for about 10 cents on the dollar. Absolute PR nightmare heading your way to try to fine this guy for that. If they had ended up making a 200 MM investment in him it might be different. You can’t touch him on that deal in that city.
I think Mad Bum will be a Yankee or stay a Giant
Over his last 3 seasons Bum has 19 wins and a 115 ERA+.
In that same time Chase Anderson has 29 wins and a 119 ERA+.
I’d let Greinke weigh in on my wardrobe decisions and choices in regards to hair/makeup
Post of the day.
Huh!!??
The only thing Cole can hope for is his arm doesn’t fall to S#%t after he signs the big contract and can keep up his velocity like Verlander
II was going to say that Zack Greinke was overpaid; however, I looked over his stats and realized the Dodgers may have made a mistake in letting him sign elsewhere. I guess it depend on how he performs the next two years.
Greinke deal still has 2 years and $70M left on it and Diamondbacks had to send cash to get anything back for him. I’m not willing to say yet that this one is going to go down in history as a guy who earned the money.
He pitched like a stop of the rotation pitcher and brought back 3-4 good pieces and assets. Definitely a good deal for them.
I think the $17,000,000 that Arizona sent to Houston is what brought the pieces.
Without that money I think it would be Greinke for a bag of balls.
correction: I looked and a resource said they sent $24,000,000
They didn’t have to send cash because he wasn’t performing and had no value, they had to send cash because he has a huge contract and that’s the biggest part of the deal for the Dbacks, doing what they had to do to move the future contract obligations.
That doesn’t make sense. The fact is, if he was performing in a way that led teams to think $70M for the next 2 years was a good deal, the Diamondbacks would not have had to send so much money.
He was performing very well (if we ignore 2016). Just not $70M kind of well. So they had to send money or else all they would get in return is nothing. So in essence, yeah, he had no trade value.
This article didn’t take into account the playoff choke jobs by a couple of these guys. Greinke has been horrendous and Kershaw often regrettable. The regular season is fine and all, but the playoffs and world series are what matters and both of those guys were often the weakest link. On the other side, the value of Price’s role in last year’s championship is incredibly high.
Curious what people think David Price’s value is. Based on 32M a year for 3 years, how much do you think the Red Sox would need to subsidize to move him?
They could trade him straight up with no subsidizing. As long as it was a deal for Albert Pujols. At least Albert only has 2 years left on the deal.
Dirtbike accident ruined Ron Gant’s career
I dont ming paying the guys the $35m per for thier prime years. Say 4/$140 for Cole, but often I’m these deals the final two years you are laying for a much lesser pitcher
I don’t think a pitcher should get that kind of $$$. Nevertheless the best one of all those deals is Scherzer, IMO.
That being said.. Cole gets 6yrs- $210M from the Padres.