Right-hander Jake Odorizzi may have made the final start of his Twins tenure on Monday. Odorizzi turned in a solid performance against the high-powered Yankees, allowing two runs on five hits (with five strikeouts and no walks) in five innings, but that wasn’t enough to stave off elimination for the Twins. Minnesota fell 5-1 to finish off a three-game ALDS sweep for the Yankees, bringing an early end to an impressive bounce-back season for the Twins.
Now that Minnesota’s offseason has begun, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine must decide whether to aggressively pursue a new deal for Odorizzi. The soon-to-be 30-year-old’s on the brink of free agency, where he’ll be among the top non-Gerrit Cole starters available, though he does seem open to re-signing with the Twins.
Speaking in regards to his time with the Twins and his future Wednesday, Odorizzi told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and other reporters: “That’s out of my hands. I really enjoyed my two years here. If I’m back, great. I’ve really taken a liking to here. But if not, I wish nothing but the best. This is a great group of people from top to bottom. It’s tough to end the year, but at least I got to go out with great fans and a great atmosphere.”
Odorizzi, whom the Twins acquired from the Rays entering the 2018 season, is coming off a career year at an opportune moment. The first-time All-Star pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP with 10.08 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 across 159 innings, averaging a personal-best 92.9 mph on his fastball along the way.
Thanks to his strong production this season, Odorizzi will go into free agency as a qualifying offer candidate. Receiving a QO wouldn’t do Odorizzi any favors as he prepares to go to the market, as it would require a team to cough up a draft pick(s) while likely giving him a substantial payday over a couple years. However, it’s possible the Twins will simply let Odorizzi walk instead of risking having to pay an $18MM-plus salary for 2019 should he accept a QO. That said, waving goodbye to Odorizzi would be a tough development for the Twins, who are also at risk of seeing Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda bolt via free agency. Additionally, they’ll have a decision to make on Martin Perez, who has a $7.5MM club option or a $500K buyout for next year.
Along with No. 1 starter Jose Berrios, each of Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda and Martin were key components of a Minnesota rotation that saw all of them amass at least 26 starts during a 101-victory, AL Central-winning 2019. The lone member of the quintet who rivaled Berrios in effectiveness was Odorizzi, who may be in another uniform the next time he takes the ball.
would 3 years, $45mm get it done?
Odorizzi is not as good as Lynn, Cobb, or Anibal Sanchez. He can eat innings so he should be paid like an innings eater. 3/35. No more.
He’s better than Cobb…
you accidentally said Alex Cobb was a good pitcher. better watch that.
Lol
Say what? I’m not a huge Odorizzi guy but he is better than all of those guys and is the opposite of an innings eater.
He’s better than all 3 of those guys lol
You clearly know nothing about the topic when you say Odorizzi is an innings eater, he was literally one of the worst stars to innings pitched of any starting pitcher in baseball.
3 / $45M is probably an overpay. More like 3 / $39M. Odorizzi is a borderline QO candidate at 1yr $18M so 3yrs at $15M/yr is a bit steep IMHO.
The question is whether or not the Twins believe Odorizzi had a career year in a contract year after showing some question marks on his value as a starter in 2017-2018.
All it takes for a guy like Odorizzi is one step back and he goes from career year to barely playable. Odorizzi’s pitches are not particularly great. He gives up a lot of hard contact and he’s a fly ball pitcher. Everything about 2019 screams buyer beware.
Twins resigning him for 3/45 is my prediction.
The Twins were a playoff team because the Central sucked so much. If they actually want to be a legit contender then they had better hope Odorizzi stays for what he’s worth, 3/35, and is joined by a few other arms.
101 wins is still quite an accomplishment.
Vs bottom feeders lol. Nice accomplishment getting swept by the first team that puts up a real fight
They went 51-35 against all teams not in the AL Central and 50-26 within their division so I’d say try we’re pretty well rounded.
* I’d say they were pretty well rounded
Winning the division is all they should be aiming for — the playoffs are a small sample size where anything can happen in a short series. Winning a division makes you a contender.
Are you Jim Pohlad? The rest of all of baseball aims for World Series titles. The Twins motto is “aim for .500 and hope for the best like what happened back in ’87!”
@ejemp that’s an absolutely ridiculous point. The Yankees are in the same division as the HORRENDOUS orioles and blue jays. You can just as easily say they only won 100 games because they’re playing a bunch of bottom feeder teams too.
The Yankees were 54-22 (.711 winning percentage) against the AL east.
Oh and by the way, they were 18-15 (.545 winning percentage) against those bottom dwellers in the AL Central. In fact, if you remove the twins from that (which would be to compare the teams that the Yankees and the twins both played against in the central) the Yankees division vs the AL central is 14-13. Hardly impressive against a bunch of bottom dwellers.
The twins need leadership. They went into New York scared because of the monkey on their back. They showed up in game 3 but just got beaten by great defense. Those first 2 games, they just didn’t show up for. The twins were every bit as good as the Yankees this year. The nonsense head to head “curse” can’t really be taken into account… because the twins just forget how to play baseball when they play the Yankees
Obviously not though
Twins went 4-3 against the Astros this year. The.Yankees went 3-4 against the same team. The Yankees got to beat up on Baltimore and Toronto (67-95 record).. The Central was not that much different than the East this year.
The Yankees two big advantages are that the unique dimensions of the stadium give them a big home field advantage (Target Field is generally cookie cutter dimensions) and payroll. If we could afford an extra $80 million of payroll like the Yankees, we could re-sign Odorizzi and a whole bunch more.
I would not feel bad offering him the QO. If he accepts it you overpay him slightly on a 1 year deal. I would rather overpay on 1 year than be locked into a 3-4 year deal.
Jose Berrios is not in my opinion an ace on any other team. If he were on any of the other playoff teams he might be in the bullpen. Twins need to invest in better pitching. Odorizzi is worth resigning, 3/35. Other teams might be willing to pay more for him. Nelson Cruz carried the team!
#3? Wonder where he fits?
Disagree……
Jose Berrios is truly an ace.
His dominant curveball – although different – is as dominating a pitch as those of former Twins Bert Blyleven and Camilo Pascual (he starred with the Washington Senators that moved to Minnesota and changed their name to Twins).
The man is 25 years-old, a 200 inning a year pitcher, and about to go into overdrive. Teams do not like to hit against him, Aces welcome the challenge of pitching against him. I doubt very much that MLB players that compete against him consider him anything less then an ace pitcher.
Berrios was definitely looked at as the ace of the staff but I don’t think he is a true ace yet. I mean just look at some of the other teams and he would honestly be a 3 on quite a few contending teams at best. When I think of an ace I’m looking at guys like scherzer, Strausburg DeGrom, Verlander, Cole and pre-injury Kluber and Snell. He just isn’t on that level of consistency yet but he clearly has the talent to get there and after watching a few of his starts this year I wouldn’t be surprised if 2020 is the year he puts it all together and we can put his name in the ace category.
He has the stuff to be an ace.
JD396 that’s where I stand with him. He hasn’t figured it all out yet and is fairly inconsistent. But he unquestionably has the “stuff”
The Twins have been so devoid of starting rotation talent for SO long the fans have begun to view Berrios as a legitimate ace. He’s not. He will never be an ace. Berrios has 3 pitches and needs all of them, all the time, in order to produce those dominant starts. Find an ace in baseball without 4-5 pitches. Go ahead. Go look for them.
This is no slight against Berrios. He’s a very good pitcher who by all accounts puts in 100% effort in training and preparation. He does everything he can to make himself as good as he can be, but he doesn’t have the secondary offerings needed.
If you look over the last 3 (very consistent for him) years to take a big sample size, he’s most definitely not in the top 30 qualified starters over that time period in ERA. He sits behind even guys like Marcus Stroman. Berrios is solidly a middle/back of the pack #2 caliber starter, though.
His best bet on the market is to hope that Gerrit Cole doesn’t sign with the Angels so that they can grossly overpay him.
If they miss on Cole. There’s still Ryu, Bumgarner or Wheeler.
I think Cole resigns with the Stros.
no chance with them taking Greinke on
Sounds like a future Braves pitcher to replace Keuchel and Teheran.
Instead of going all in on Cole or MadBum the Twins should just bring back Odorizzi and sign another established starter (Keuchel, Wheeler, Ryu, Porcello, etc).
Makes good sense.
Until there is a salary cap in MLB Twins/Small market teams will not and cannot compete in the top FA Market . The twins will improve their starting pitching but will do so by trading top minor league players .. It is Not a level playing field folks .. Think Salary Cap !!
The large market teams like the Yankees & Red Sox will never go for it. I agree with your assessment 100%. The luxury tax doesn’t do enough. Plus the large market teams tend to spend more on scouting and have success in developing their players. The small market teams are always playing catch up.
The Twins had an offense that was loaded with career years. They are not even close to a real 101 win club.
Many of the Twins core players are still young, with a few more coming from the minors shortly.
For years the issue has been their pitching. I wrote last off-season that until they develop their own pitching, they would not win. Wes Johnson came in as their Pitching Coach and improved all the starters, as well as developed a bullpen as the year went on.
If Johnson has the same success in 2020 with the pitching roster he’s given, then I’d suggest the Twins not only will have a successful 2020, but stand a chance to go further in the playoffs.
Lol, sure no bias in that comment, “tribe guy”
How many teams didn’t have multiple players with career offensive years this season? Standings for the year has 101 in the left hand column, so I think it was real….
The good news for Minnesota is the market is flooded with mid to back end starters this year. Pick the right one and you get career Odorizzi, just not 2019 Odorizzi.
Like the Angels they should be in the market for multiple arms this year.
Exactly what the Angels are looking for.
An inning eater.
I don’t know why Jake Odorizzi as an innings eater is catching on. The guy averages a shade over 5 innings a start. That’s pretty much who he has been for most of his career. Jake Odorizzi isn’t an innings eater.
Opposite in fact. Days he pitches, you know for a fact you’re using multiple bullpen arms
Sadly, on our staff that would make him a workhorse ha ha.
But I’m with you. It seems odd he’s somehow picked up the innings eater label.
An innings eater who even in 30 starts, couldn’t qualify as a starter because he couldn’t throw enough innings, LOL.
If Odorizzi starts game 1 vs Yankees it may have been a different series. Rookie manager gets a pass as it’s hard to lose games when you score 10. I saw too many losses where Rocco was out managed late and close. Sign Odorizzi, let the others go. Sign Kuechel and make a trade for some Padre starters. Padres have a knack for trading talent.
He signs with the ChiSox this offseason
Hope not, we don’t need a pitcher that uses the entire bullpen every game.
Because of the market the last few seasons, I see him excepting a 4 yr 50 mill deal
Did anybody look at his numbers? He’s 30 and has a 4 era. He is much more a long reliever, or 4 or 5 rotation guy. He is not an innings eater, just look at his career numbers.
Man if the Brewers would have put Peralta in the Greinke trade instead of him. What could’ve been. Brewers have brought everyone else back from that trade why not him too lol
Woodruff, Odorizzi, Davies, Houser, Gio/a cheap lefty to add would be a pretty good 5 imo.
Q.O. Odorizzi (if he takes it, it’s no big overpay for a one-year contract), resign Pineda, buyout Perez for $500K. Some team (where it doesn’t matter much) will give Gibson an offer, and, if he’s healthy next year, will trade him at the deadline.
Berrios, Odorizzi, and Pineda is a decent lineup, but the Twins also need to get a frontline starter. They might be able to grow one themselves (Brusdar Graterol, possibly), but I can’t see ownership/management paying for a high-end starter (they will claim to “be in on” at least two of them, though).
Twins’ best bet is to trade a goodly handful of their minor league talent for a high-upside starter who’s still arbitration eligible for a few years. They will have to overpay in talent, though, for the opportunity to gamble on one.
Yep. Twins will release report after report about being in on, and interviewing these guys, then they’ll sign elsewhere for far less what the twins could afford if they actually wanted to
I think it’s a toss up if Gibson or Odorizzi performs better next season. Pretty similar pitchers.
I’d offer the qualifying offer if I was Minnesota…get some draft compensation if he bolts….and if he accepts it, might as well overpay for one season rather than 4 or 5.
hey brewers, get your mans back. We need him.
Should the Twins bring back Odorizzi? Yes, they should on a QO. Jus t1 more year of him. The path is very clear what the Twins need to do this off-season. They HAVE to overpay for Gerrit Cole. That would move Berrios to #2, which would release some the “ace” pressure off of him and let him just pitch like he can. Then they need to sign Wheeler to be the #3. A starting staff of Cole, Berrios, Wheeler, Odorizzi and then a rookie like Graterol or Gonsalves would make for a more than decent starting staff. The Twins will just have to spend the money now since their “window to win” is as wide open as it has been in a very, very long time.
Twins brass obviously don’t trust him- he’s a 5 inning starter and they didn’t use him in the crucial game 2
How many teams didn’t have multiple players with career offensive years this season? Standings for the year has 101 in the left hand column, so I think it was real….
Not sure why it posted the comment above where it did.
Didn’t start game 2 in the bandbox that is Yankees Stadium because he had the 2nd lowest ground ball rate in the majors. Dobnak had 5th highest ground ball rate (if qualified) so the logic was pretty simple.
If Twins are serious about contending, they should try and acquire a pitcher with the ilk of Bumgarner or Wheeler. Maybe bring back Odorizzi if the price is right.