Major League Baseball’s postseason is in full swing at the moment, and though watching multiple must-win games per day has been exhilarating, it unfortunately won’t go on for much longer. We’re just a few weeks away from the end of the season and the start of free agency, where several teams in need of upgrades will shop in hopes of either staying a playoff team in 2020 or perhaps becoming one.
As always, free agency will present starter-needy clubs the chance to address their rotations. In the case of the upcoming winter’s class of unsigned pitchers, it’s no secret Astros right-hander and AL Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole is hands down the No. 1 option. He has a realistic chance at a $200MM contract once his marvelous year ends. Beyond Cole, there are several No. 2/3 type of starters with possibly some diamonds in the rough thereafter.
Here’s a look at the upcoming group based on 2019 velocity as well as missing bats, limiting walks, keeping the ball on the ground and minimizing hard contact. All of those skills will weigh on front offices’ minds as they debate whether to dole out contracts to any of the available hurlers (special thanks to FanGraphs for providing the data and for giving the user the ability to create customized leaderboards)…
Hardest Throwers (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 92.7 mph
- Gerrit Cole: 97.2 mph
- Zack Wheeler: 96.7
- Andrew Cashner: 93.6*
- Edwin Jackson: 93.4*
- Kyle Gibson: 93.3
- Matt Harvey: 93.2
- Homer Bailey/Michael Wacha*: 93.0
- Jake Odorizzi: 92.9
- Michael Pineda: 92.6
- Ivan Nova: 92.4
*This excludes bullpen work from Cashner, Jackson and Wacha.
Top Strikeout Arms (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 22.3%
- Gerrit Cole: 39.9 K%, 13.82 K/9
- Rich Hill: 29.8 K%, 11.05 K/9
- Jake Odorizzi: 27.1 K%, 10.08 K/9
- Drew Smyly: 24.2 K%, 9.64 K/9*
- Madison Bumgarner: 24.1 K%, 8.8 K/9
- Zack Wheeler: 23.6 K%, 8.98 K/9
- Michael Pineda: 23.3 K%, 8.63 K/9
- Cole Hamels: 23.2 K%, 9.08 K/9
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: 22.5 K%, 8.03 K/9
- Kyle Gibson: 22.4 K%, 8.84 K/9
*This excludes Smyly’s bullpen work.
Fewest Walks (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 7.7%
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: 3.3 BB%, 1.18 BB/9
- Michael Pineda: 4.7 BB%, 1.73 BB/9
- Madison Bumgarner: 5.1 BB%, 1.86 BB/9
- Ivan Nova: 5.8 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
- Gerrit Cole: 5.9 BB%, 2.03 BB/9
- Alex Wood: 5.9 BB%, 2.27 BB/9
- Rick Porcello: 5.9 BB%, 2.32 BB/9
- Zack Wheeler: 6.0 BB%, 2.3 BB/9
- Brett Anderson: 6.6 BB%, 2.51 BB/9
- Tanner Roark: 7.1 BB%, 2.78 BB/9
Best Groundball Rates (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 42.7%
- Dallas Keuchel: 60.1%
- Brett Anderson: 54.5%
- Kyle Gibson: 51.4%
- Tyson Ross: 51.3%
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: 50.4%
- Andrew Cashner: 50.0%
- Wade Miley: 49.7%
- Rich Hill: 49.6%
- Adam Wainwright: 48.8%
- Felix Hernandez: 48.1%
Least Hard Contact (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 38.4%
- Zack Wheeler: 31.4%
- Ivan Nova: 33.1%
- Gio Gonzalez: 33.5%
- Gerrit Cole: 33.9%
- Hyun-Jin Ryu/Rick Porcello: 34.2%
- Andrew Cashner: 35.6%
- Wade Miley: 36.1%
- Cole Hamels: 36.4%
- Dallas Keuchel: 36.8%
- Kyle Gibson: 36.9%
This is a new version of a Steve Adams post that ran Sept. 25, 2017.
You should add Teheran on this list except categorize him as pure trash…AVOID!
Lol he could help a ball club out….
Yea maybe the Marlins, Tigers, Giants, Royals….a team that has zero chance of winning next season. Any team looking to win a ring should avoid him.
Interesting you put the Giants on that list when their entire pitching staff was better than the Braves last year
Not sure what this has to do with anything?!
Tyler Beede, Shaun Anderson, and Derek Rodriguez weren’t better than much of anything. Anderson might be a useful bullpen arm but the other 2 guys are looking like AAAA players.
Who? The marlins? The jays? The Os? KC?
God this clown is irritating.
He needs professional help…..
Zack Wheeler will be the biggest bust of starting pitchers free agent market. mets will offer him a QO which he better take because if a team is dumb enough to offer him a multi year deal they will be sorry.
Why do you say that?
I disagree as long as teams don’t go crazy with their offers. I know the writers on this site love him way more than they should. I do think he’s got potential to break out but it’s no guarantee.
He’s been healthy for 2 yrs now and has good numbers and peripherals. He didn’t exactly get a lot of help from his defense either. As a Braves fan, I’d take him in a heartbeat.
From what it looks like, Alex Wood and Drew Smyly could be sleeper pick ups while Zach Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner will likely get paid more than they’re worth. Heck, even Ryu for that matter.
To make matters worse, Wheeler and Bumgarner are locks for a QO which would cost their new team even more in draft capital and international signing bonus dollars.
I’m liking free agent southpaw Dallas Keuchel more and more to help anchor the White Sox young bevy of right-handed power pitchers in 2020 and beyond. Keuchel and his high ground ball rate pitched effectively for the better part of 7 years in a HR-friendly park in Houston, even garnering a Cy Young Award in 2015. The White Sox have a similar venue on the southside of Chicago.
Keuchel has been healthy the past couple of season and I would love to see his Gold Glove added to a White Sox infield that will have another in Nick Madrigal at 2B along with a budding one in Yoan Moncada at 3B. If the White Sox can manage to get SS Tim Anderson’s defense back to what it was in the second half of the 2018 season that would be the icing on their infield cake.
Keuchel at the right price would be good, especially in the Cell. I’d prefer Madbum because of postseason success though
Madison Bumgarner will cost the White Sox their 2nd round pick next June along with $500k in international signing bonus dollars with his QO from the Giants. Keuchel cannot be tagged again after receiving one from the Astros last offseason.
Additionally, Bumgarner has pitched all of his home games in spacious Oracle Park in San Francisco. He also has a preference to remain in the NL because he loves to hit. As you mentioned, MadBum also come with one of MLB’s best postseason resumes but Keuchel also has plenty of playoff experience which is continuing this year with the Braves.
Keuchel has not looked good in the series against the cards. What about Wheeler and his least hard contact rate 31%.
Like Bumgarner, Wheeler will be tagged with a QO following the World Series. The White Sox can also use a lefty in a rotation that has none except for Carlos Rodon who will still be rehabbing from his TJ surgery well into the 2020 season.
Saying a guy having a QO attached is a reason not to sign him is like saying that a reason not to trade for a guy is because his current team wants stuff for him. There’s a reason nobody ever says things like that: because they are silly.
You have to state that Wheeler or Bumgarner *is not worth* the 500k international money and second round pick or whatever it is. That is what would make your point a point.
Don’t waste your time spinach. This guy is trying to sound like an analyst but has had nothing of value to add in any of his drawn out, over written essays on the white Sox.
A team like White Sox certainly would have been less inclined to sign Dallas Keuchel last offseason with his QO since they were still in the midst of their rebuild. They will be more inclined to sign him this winter without his QO as they begin their transition from rebuilding to contending in 2020. Because of their W-L record in 2019 they will also be less inclined to forfeit their relatively high #2 draft pick next June along with $500k of international bonus dollars to sign a QO tagged pitcher like Bumgarner or Wheeler this offseason. Gerrit Cole and his QO would be another story because of his projected elite ability going forward as a young ace pitcher.
When the White Sox are more definitive contenders down the road and their record reflects that they will be less inclined to punt a draft pick and international bonus dollars for a chance to better their odds of winning a championship.
You might recall last offseason when the White Sox were one of the few teams deeply engaged with both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper in the FA market despite the fact they were still rebuilding In my opinion they ultimately settled on offering Machado a long term contract rather than Harper because the latter had a QO attached to him. To me Harper was the better long term fit as a needed high OPS lefty slugger who can play RF than Machado whereas the White Sox already knew they were set long term at 3B, SS and 2B with Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Nick Madrigal as future core players. Why would they do this if not for the QO consideration aside from the fact that they often make head-scratching decisions?
White Sox should grab Madbum since the owner is too cheap to pay for Cole.
K.
How about Odorizzi ……adding him also subtracts him from the Twinkees!
Or we just resign Nova and give him a second year with the future champs!
Rich Hill could be a huge under the radar signing for a team trying to ‘win it all’ next year. Granted he’s probably not going to stay healthy for an entire season — when he does pitch he’s one of the absolute best in the game. If a team needs a real ‘difference maker’ but can’t afford a guy like Cole — Hill could be a solid pickup to get an ‘elite’ caliber SP at a less than “elite” price.
I could definitely see him on the Cubs. The outlook looks more and more like “win-now” for them.
Rich Hill is so frustrating. He’s awesome as a person and a player. The constant injuries is heartbreaking. When he is healthy, you are pretty much guaranteed five solid innings. You just never know when he will be available to pitch again.
Near avg velocity, very poor strikeout rate, pretty good walk rate, very good groundball rate, good least hard contact rate, never missed a start due to injury, very good clubhouse presence, sign for just $1M. Starter Chris Volstad. Are strikeouts more important than never been injured?
Looking at the Braves to sign Gerrit Cole, Hyun-Jin Ryu and sign Josh Donaldson to an extension. Dreams.
Mad Bum, resigns with the Giants !!
Book it…………….
Not exactly the most earth-shattering prediction, but sure. Wouldn’t be surprising.
Andrew Cashner looks real good in that list.
He seemed to enjoy playing ball while in San Diego and he was impressive with his enthusiasm. The problem was he wasn’t very good. He just couldn’t maintain it. Maybe if you were signed to a series of 6-week contracts, he would perform better knowing he was going to become a free agent…
Forget about chasing Madbum or Cole, the Twins need to bring back Odorizzi, sign Keuchel, and perhaps even make an offer for E-Rod.
Phillies year two plan was always been about pitching. They will go hard to acquire two of these 4 pitchers. Keuchel, Hammels, Jackson and/or Cole.
I believe they’ll come away with 3 Keuchel 3year 17m per, Hamels 2year 15m per & Cole 4year 110m
Hamels would go back to Philly in a heartbeat so any offer by them will likely be good enough to get him back. Keuchel will probably hold out for a deal he doesn’t deserve like he did last winter and spend six months on the market for no reason other than his own stubbornness.
I’ve liked Brett Anderson as a back end option for the Angels for a few weeks. High ground ball rate backed by Simba an d Fletcher would be nice.
We need a lot of arms, not all will be high end.
I think the Angels get Wheeler as they’re high end arm. Eppler loves velocity and likely gets out bid on Cole.
Cole will sign with the highest bidder. If that’s the Angels, you can pencil them in for a win every 5th day. The only way I see Cole leaving money on the table is if the highest bidder is an east coast team, he’s made it pretty clear that he has no desire to play for anyone on this side of the country.
I feel like the Padres might end up being the highest bidder and then it comes down to whether Cole wants to have to hit again.
I’ll take Cole, Strasburg, or Wheeler in that order, all the others are question marks. Although all pitching is outleir!
I can’t see Cole leaving the West, he’s likely one of a Dodger, Angel or Padre depending on who shells out the most money and who is managing the latter two of those teams next year. I can’t imagine anyone NOT wanting to play for Joe Maddon and he’s all but a lock to take over the Angels, but at the same time Bruce Bochy to the Padres is a real possibility and I think they have more to offer in terms of both dollars and an opportunity to win than the Angels do.
Then again, if Cole cared about winning he wouldn’t have refused to sign with the Yankees all those years ago. The only reason he’s in Houston is because they traded for him….
Astros get into the Series, he’s staying in Houston.
Houston isn’t going to offer him the kind of money he wants, and that’s all he’s ever cared about. They traded for Greinke as insurance for when Cole invariably rejects the QO and possibly signs with a division rival.
I can think of a good Reason why someone Wouldnt want to play for Joe Maddon.
He will be Managing the ANGELS!! Even with Trout & Cole, I doubt theyd ever win a World Series. Although if the Astros win the World Series this year (they likely will), He might not care if he wins it ever again.
He & His Wife both went to College at UCLA. I heard he was an Angel’s fan & they have the money to sign him.
I think it’s almost a done deal.
If I were a GM outside of LA, I’d pay whatever it takes to get him.
The Astros “likey will” win the World Series? What crystal ball are you looking into, oh great and powerful mystic wizard? Houston as of yet has not gotten past Tampa and still have to get past the Yankees with two pitchers because Greinke is a headcase who can’t handle pressure and that’s a guaranteed loss.
Running Verlander and Cole out every two games isn’t sustainable.
as a giants fan i’m onboard with letting madbum walk and paying g cole the big bucks
For what? The Giants are not a Gerritt Cole away from moving up one spot in the division standings, let alone making the playoffs. Throwing money at a guy who doesn’t solve any of their problems isn’t the answer. In fact, I’d argue swapping Bumgarner for Cole is a lateral move.
Now, having Bumgarner AND Cole is a different story. They challenge for the second Wild Card with both guys, but not with one or the other.