DEC. 10: It’s looking increasingly probable that Bumgarner will either reach or approach his $100MM-plus goal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. “Many teams” are in the race, per Heyman, who tweets that the Twins “are thought to be” heavily in pursuit.
DEC. 9, 5:11pm: The Giants, Bumgarner’s lone team to date, are among his suitors and will meet with his representation this week, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We’re involved in those discussions,” Zaidi said. “We’re planning to meet with his representatives this week and they have other meetings scheduled, too. That’s what happens when a player is a free agent, they’re going to explore all their options. Guys are looking for different things, looking for maybe a particular geography, maybe a team in a specific part of their competitive cycle.” Interestingly, although they’re not known for their spending, the division-rival Diamondbacks are also in the mix, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The Angels are also part of it, though whether they’re aggressive in pursuing Bumgarner could depend on if they land Gerrit Cole.
10:46am: Representatives of southpaw Madison Bumgarner have informed interested organizations that he’s looking to top nine figures over five years with his first free agent contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Whether he’ll get there remains to be seen.
Zack Wheeler just blew past the $100M mark, but MLBTR predicted he’d substantially out-earn Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has unquestionably accomplished more in his career to date, the younger Wheeler seems on the upswing. We predicted Bumgarner would land at four years and $72MM, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him approach or even reach the $100MM level if interest soars to five years.
The question facing MLB teams is whether they believe Bumgarner can sustain his excellent results despite less-than-exceptional peripheral numbers. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his heyday, but Bumgarner’s velocity has stabilized in the 91 to 92 mph range. He got swings and misses as often as ever in the just-completed campaign after experiencing a somewhat worrisome 2018 downturn. But Bumgarner hasn’t drawn quite as many strikeouts and hasn’t limited the long ball as successfully as he once did, leading ERA estimators to dim on his value.
Bumgarner stands as an interesting market bellwether. Teams won’t pay for his past performance; those days are over. But will they put a big dollar value on his still-significant anticipated future contributions? And will his history of stepping up in the postseason help his cause? Bumgarner is still just thirty years of age and got back to his 200-inning ways in 2019. And even the post-injury version of the lefty still hasn’t finished a season having allowed four earned runs per nine innings.
There are a variety of teams with interest, though to what level isn’t yet evident. The Twins, White Sox, and Reds have been linked clearly to Bumgarner, while the Reds, Cardinals, and Yankees have also been cited as possibilities. It’ll cost the winning bidder draft compensation to add Bumgarner, which could temper the willingness to add yet more dollars and/or years to an offer.
I think someone will give him $100M seeing how much other players have gotten this offseason
Somebody’s going to bet on Bumgarner pulling a “Verlander” and turning back the clock once he gets out of a bad situation. And if you’re betting on getting the best version of him, 5/$100 is a huge bargain. We’ll see if that comes to fruition.
Red Sox find a taker on Price and sign MadBaum. Similar money but spread out in more years making it palatable.
Lol. “Sure we’ll take in a bad contract so you can sign Madbum”…Said no one ever. Why wouldn’t a team just sign Madbum?
No one wants Price the albatross
Price is not as totally useless as some commenters suggest, though I’m guessing it would take the Sox paying as much as half to 2/3 of his current and future years’ salaries for BOS to get out from beneath that contract, depending on the talent that came to the Sox in return.
San Diego could be a match if they miss out on bigger FA targets and the sides could build a three-or-more-player trade around Myers and Price.
At his salary, Price is useless
Send him to the Giants … Yomiuri Giants. They can send 10,428,432,000.00 ¥en back to Boston
Price is overpaid by about $8-10m/year. So I would guess the Red Sox would need to eat $24-$30m to move those last 3 years. It might be easier to just hold him for another year with the hope that he has a good season in 2020.
His whining isn’t worth that
The way these new contracts for SP are skyrocketing it may not be as difficult to unload Price’s or Eovaldi’s contract.
Boston has no need for Myers. They can get a cheaper first baseman that will give them more production. San Diego has already said it’s out of the big FA’s market already.
Boston definitely could get a 1B less expensively than Myers overall, but their net cost after saving $20MM or more by shipping Price out and the possibility of receiving additional talent in the same deal could be worth exploring.
Price may suddenly look more affordable to San Diego in terms of his net cost versus the Padres’ current commitment to Myers and whatever combination of salary relief and talent is going in one direction or the other.
You do realize that other than the suspended German, Price would have been the best Yankees pitcher last season, right?
That’s an interesting point. It makes me wonder if the likelihood or possibility of a trade several years into a multi-year contract is part of the calculations a team makes when it offers a free agent a contract. So does an offer of $300+ million for Cole rest in part on the notion that in five years they can dump him to someone else who would rather pay part of Cole’s contract than pay the then-going price for a free agent superstar?
How many IP did Price have and who’s claiming the Yankees had an elite staff? I think it’s evident they don’t think that themselves with what they’re about to offer Cole
Price would need to put up 12 fWAR for the $96m to be break-even value. Let’s say he puts up 8 fWAR. That creates a $-32m deficit. In other words, 1 of his 3 years is a complete waste of salary.
However, if the Red Sox send back a prospect or a young cost-controlled player who can create $32m of surplus value over the next 3 years, the trade then becomes break-even value again.
If Boston did something like Price + Jay Groome + Kyle Hart to the White Sox for Dom Smith (acquired by the White Sox as compensation for taking back bad Mets money) + the maximum allowable international bonus pool transfer amount for each of the next 3 years, that could help both teams.
The Red Sox dump Price’s entire contract, fill a need at 1B with a good young player in Dom Smith, and load up with more resources to fortify the farm system. The White Sox fill a rotation need and add a much-needed high-ceiling lefty pitching prospect.
The PRICE is WRONG!
The 15-6 sub 4 ERA James Paxton says Koamalu is an idiot
“No one wants Price the albatross”
“At his salary, Price is useless”
mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/david-price-drawing-tra…
Why do you consider the Giants a bad situation?
Verlander had already bounced back before he was traded to Houston. Unless you are referring to some other “bad situation” than playing for Detroit. In 2016 he was 2nd in Cy Young voting and received MVP votes
5/$100?
With Strasburg and now Cole? Bum & Keuchel will both want 6/$150, maybe more. Some team will pay.
Makes taking on Price look less pricey, doesn’t it, for Cards fans, or others who think about it.
Yankees will get outbid on Cole then go the much cheaper route with Bumgarner.
Todd, agreed. LOVE TO SEE IT
Yankees could do worse than Bumgarner. But he’s also not the true ace that they lack at this stage of his career.
This officially knocks the Cardinals out of contention to sign him.
I thought this would be a slight stretch but definitely not now after that Strasburg deal!
Come on, Phils! Just sign him already. Can’t wait to see the Phanatic and Bumgarner down at The Bank riding their four-wheelers around together and sh–oh, wait, uh never mind, bad idea…
I think that he will get his contract ($100MM/5) for a team that loses out on Cole.
I don’t know how he doesn’t command a similar aav and years to wheeler.
I know WAR isn’t everything but Wheeler had over a 4.0 and Bum was at a 2.8. Not to mention Wheeler is younger and entering his prime. It’s fair to say Bum is on the back end of his prime years with a lot of miles on that arm. Going 5/100M is a lot more risk given his age.
And by prime I mean mileage. Wheeler has 750 innings while bum has over 1800 on his arm already
You’re dead on balls accurate. And that’s not including playoffs. I’d take MadBum on a 3 year with an option. But committing 100mil+ at this point is quite risky.
He’s been a monster, but any new team doesn’t owe him for past performance. Funny thing is MadBum is less than a year older than Wheeler.
Lol the only reason wheeler only has 750 innings is the fact that has be unable to stay healthy for an extended period of time. Mad bums rookie season was 2010 and wheelers was 2013, yet he has more then 1000 innings more then wheeler, if anything madbum is a workhorse compared to a bandaid. Phillies are going to regret that contract big time, wheeler is one more elbow surgery away for being Brandon morrow 2.0.
You could be right but madbum has at least been there and done that while wheeler is relatively unproven. Plus he just seems like an absolute gamer that stats will drastically improve once he’s playing on a contender.
He’s been pitching his home games at the friendliest pitcher’s park in baseball. This has bad news all over it. Too much mileage. If he was still pumping it up there at 95mph like Verlander is than I could see it, but he’s not. He was throwing almost 250 Innings per season those years the Giants went to the WS
Maybe for the 2 seasons in 2012 and 2014 but nowhere near that in 2010. Also, he was hurt the better part of 2017 (dirtbike accident, 111 innings pitched) and 2018 (line drive broke hand, 129 innings pitched). Sitting out the majority of his age 27 and 28 seasons tends to heal the body and I doubt people are too worried about the wear and tear on him of all people.
Wheeler is 2 months younger. Wheeler has less major league IP because he missed two full seasons to injury and mostly because he was not as good early in his career. Despite being the same age, Bumgarner came up to the majors 4 seasons before Wheeler did, but that does not mean Wheeler was not pitching at all. I will also put my money on the injury that cost him 2 full seasons putting more stress on Wheeler’s arm than Bumgarner’s innings pitched.
Because players don’t get paid for what they’ve done, they get paid for what they’re expected to do going forward.
This is exactly why Wheeler will get more than him. Wheeler’s potential future performance is better than his even though Bumgarner’s track record is way more impressive.
You can’t compensate Bumgarner for his play throughout the 2010’s where he was a top of rotation arm, you have to look at his next 4-5 years where he’s likely going to be a mid-rotation arm.
Yeah. I took a look at his ERA+ arc and it definitely peaked a few years ago and has been trending back towards average since then. If that trend continues much more, he’ll be below average before a 5 year deal is done.
Bumgarner had a better ERA plus both of the last 2 seasons and Wheeler peaked at 112 while Bumgarner peaked at 146. They are the same age.
How are they the same age?
It’s a challenging concept to grasp, but the gist of it is that two people born within a year of each other are considered the same age.
I’ll take MadBum over Wheeler any day of the week. But not sure I would want to give either of them 5 years.
It’s not our money
Jays should offer 5/100
Last 2 years are probably dead money. He can be the lefty coming out of the pen and mentor our young LHPs like Borucki and Kay
Jays should offer 5/100
Last 2 years are probably dead money.
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Assuming TO is not a contender this year, and probably not next year, it kind of weighs down the seasons in which they should contend.
Can he hunt in Toronto? Bumgarner is about as Duck Dynasty as they get. I’m surprised he hasn’t set a bear trap during a game to try to catch an opposing player.
Yes
All those ducks and geese he shoots at are here during the summer months
Our vast wilderness hides many woodland creates looking to be “bambi’d”
Overpriced bullpen arm? No thanks. I’d rather offer 8/100 and spread the luxury tax.
If an owner won’t go to $250m for Cole or $200m for Strasburg then $100m for MadBum seems pretty reasonable.
Nine years and $315 million for Cole is smart.
Five years and $118 million for Wheeler is stupid.
Cole gets nowhere near $315 million. Anyone that gives Cole more than $250 million is insane.
Yankee fan here. Initial offer is a nice point to start. Maybe add a few more million but 9 years??? That’s a Moreno move. Let Cole go to the Angels.
Nine years for Cole?
You think 35M at 38 years old will be good money?
but 9 years??? That’s a Moreno move.
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But LAA needs to make a move before Pujols gets too old.
Pujols is already old. Pujolds has his rings with the Cards and is clogging the DH spot for Ohtani. Trout aint winning while playing on the Angels.
At the rate we’re going, players as good as Cole, 9 years from now will be averaging $40mil+ anyway.
In 9 years what will 35 get you ? 9 is crazy but some teams have to go extra years or they will never land the player . If team wins you 1 World Series in those 9 years is it worth it ? Pitchers only make a difference every 5 days and all pitchers are one pitch away from injury so I’d rather take a chance on a hitter for 9 years any day
But LAA needs to make a move before Pujols gets too old… uh that would’ve been four years ago
Before Pujols gets too old??? He’s been too old for years now
I think JB was making a joke.
*before Trout gets too old.
“You think 35M at 38 years old will be good money?”
You think Cole is going to sign a contact that only contains “good money?” That’s not how free agency works at this level.
You are not paying attention are you? Stras just got 7/245. Cole will get at least one more year and may be 1st player ever to get $40 million AAV.
@ForestCobraAL
9/$315 is not that smart. You’re blowing past the curent biggest contract for a pitcher by $100 mil.
We have to see if Wheeler can stay at the top of his game but he HAS been a top 15 pitcher the last two years if you compare just the last two seasons.
Ah no 9 year contract is smart.. Nothing against Cole but he hasn’t been dominate his entire career.
Barring injury Cole should have a good prime, but 9/315 is stupid crazy
Anything more than 5 years for a pitcher is stupid.
Make is 315/15 and pay him into retirement
Lol
Bobby Bonilla is thanking the Mets every year.
Can you even name a contract of 6+ years that turned out bad for the team that signed it other than Price so far?
See: Hampton, Mike…
Barry Zito.
Two World Series says that deal worked out just fine.
Both are stupid. Giving Madbum 5 years north of 100 million is ridiculous.
315 million for a pitcher is smart? We’re all glad you’re not a GM
If you’re going to shell out 100-120mil for MadBum you might as well spend the 250mil it would take to get Cole and get triple the production.
I am too!
Draft pick comp works in one direction, it kills guys looking for a fat one year deal.
Or guys demanding way too much….
Not at all.
The “way too much” is the only factor.
Madison and the Panda need to come back to SF and take the team back to the WS again. It’s the way it should be.
Air fare for the entire Giants team to fly to watch the World Series in person seems rather expensive, but hey if he gets a 9 figure contract I guess he can afford that the next few years
BAHAHAHAHAHAHA
anyone who thinks Wheeler is a better pitcher than Madbum is nuts — Madbum is money Wheeler is lousy and a headcase like thor on the Mets
Wheeler’s arm is coming apart. TJ surgery and missed games with a sore shoulder in 2019.
TJ surgery has a pretty good success rate. As for the 2019 “sore shoulder” the Mets were out of it and resting a pitcher. It’s not all that serious. I’m not saying you shouldn’t be concerned about his injury history, but “coming apart” is a huge stretch.
I’m not a Wheeler fan, but I’d probably take him going forward over Bumgarner. He missed half of 2017, a good deal of 2018, and has been declining in general since 2016. I think you’ll get 2-3 years of slightly above-average performance before the wheels come completely off. Look at Lincecum and Cain.
Even in this inflated pitching market, I’d be shocked to see Bumgarner get $100 M. I agree with MLB rumors prediction of 4/72. I certainly wouldn’t go anywhere near 100 M. Yikes.
Please don’t tell me you think Wheeler is worth $118M then?
No, I don’t think Wheeler is worth $118 million. I wouldn’t have gone more than $75 – 80 million on Wheeler. I do, however, think he’s a better value than MadBum, tho. Wheeler is a bit younger and has quite a few miles less on his arm than Bumgarner.
That being said, I wouldn’t mind seeing Bumgarner im a Yankee uniform. I think he’s a solid performer.
MadBum would not do well in Yankee Stadium. He wouldn’t do well in the AL East. He’d give up way to many HR’s. You have to look at his road splits.
I think Bumgarner would be fine in the AL East. O’s, Jays and Rays ( offensively) aren’t very good. Boston isn’t going to be that good if/when Mookie leaves. Bumgarner is a pro that would slot right into a #3 role.
I believe the Yankees have a policy forbidding facial snotrockets.
@Mo4ever I just checked Bumgarner’s splits from 2019, and also his game-by-game results. Wow. Not only was he much better in SF, he generally pitched terrible against playoff teams. I retract my wish for the Yanks to sign him. That was ugly.
southpaw
yep. He’d get eaten alive. He’d be best off re-signing with the Giants for whatever they offer.
Did you see what happened to Keuchel and Kimbrel overplaying their hand? You’re going to be waiting a LONG time.
Agreed perfect example
Their scenarios were a bit different though because they had draft pick compensation tied to them, right?
Bumgarner does have draft pick compensation tied to him
Their situations are the same because of the draft pick implications. Madbum got a QO so a team will have to give up a pick to sign him.
Draft compensation doesn’t make you flat-out LOSE a first rounder any more. That’s the difference.
If you’re gonna pay MadBum’s asking price, you’ll be fine with moving down 10 spots or whatever the heck it is now. You don’t just LOSE YOUR PICK any more.
You still lose your pick (or picks depending on what team you are). It just depends on your teams financial status as to what pick you lose. If you’re a revenue sharing recipient team this could mean basically losing like your 3rd pick from the comp rounds.
I might be wrong on this, but didn’t this system change under the 2017 CBA so this was the same system used last year for Kuechel? I really don’t see a difference.
You still lose your pick. It’s just you lose your 2nd rounder rather than your first rounder.
LO(h hes serious??)L
Milwaukee is looking for SP to fill at least 2 spots, but if any team is willing to pay MB $100 million over, say, 5 years, they’re welcome to it.
Milwaukee should be that team to do 5 years 100 mil. They have almost 50 mil in cap that they aren’t going to use otherwise since their corner infield position will either be by trade for cheap assets for a prove it 1 year deal to a mid card player.
When compared to the top arms MadBum & Ryu seem like nice value plays. Marginally reduced production for half the years and more than half the cost…
I agree. I think a team like the Angels would be better off signing both Bumgarner and Ryu than just signing Cole. You could get both of them for tens of millions less than Cole. A top 3 of Ohtani, Bumgarner and Ryu is pretty damn good.
I think angels would be better off getting Stras and Madbum rather than Cole.
The Angels need a LOT of help. Burning all the money on one guy doesn’t seem wise, unless Cole’s gonna start 3 times a week for them. I’d argue that they should avoid Cole AND Stras. Shop for 3 guys that can get you through the 5th inning consistently.
Glad Braves passed on that
Would not be shocked if he gets 6 years $120m-$130m, Darvish/Cueto range. There are just too many teams that would happily take him at around 5/$100m for it to stop there. Rather have him on that than spend an extra $70m for Strasburg‘a age-36 season or an extra $130m for Cole’s age-36 and age-37.
I couldn’t agree more. I’d give Bumgarner a 100 before Wheeler
One bench clearing brawl and his career could be over.
Whoever overpays for him will just have to take that risk.
Watch AJ Preller get some BumLove and sign him for 7/210 [SARCASM!]
A guy with a 5.29 Road ERA last year? Good luck with that.
Whoever makes this move is going to regret it in a year or two. If not sooner.
Bumgarner is only a year older than Wheeler but has almost 1,100 more IPs (2,226 vs 1,146) across the Minors and Majors… that’s five more seasons pitched.
That tells me that he shouldn’t be paid the same or more than Wheeler BUT… he has accomplished quite more. I think the contract MLBTR predicted (4/$72M) is very fair and I don’t see him getting much more than that regardless of what the early signings have shown.
I predict he ends up with White Sox for 5yr 83mil
Nobody decent is going to sign with the CWS without them receiving a giant overpay, from the CWS. Five years for $83 playing for CWS is not gonna get him there. He’d Likely rather Play in Milwaukee or Texas.
What’s your reasoning behind this and can you link me to your supporting evidence? Or are you just a depressed Cubs fan who keeps hearing about his team not being able to spend anymore because their GM has signed some terrible contracts recently so you decide to take it out on a team with way more promise than your “dynasty” that never was?
Listen, until the Sox sign another major free agent (last one being Albert Belle), people can proclaim that the Sox haven’t signed a major free agent since 1996. But to state that “nobody decent is going to sign with the CWS” is not only inaccurate (see Yasmani Grandal, signed just two weeks ago) but it also proves that you’re just talking out of your sCrUBbie blue arse.
I predict Theo is working hard this week to move some guys so the Cubs can go get Bumgarner.
The Cubs need to focus on their bullpen and rebuilding their farm system before making another big signing this off-season. Darvish is going nowhere since the Cubs have him to attract that tv market in Japan with their new network coming into effect in February. Heyward’s contract is unmovable! The Cubs moving Bryant or Schwarber would be to retool their farm system with younger controllable players. From my understanding the Cubs are looking to lock up Baez over Bryant or Schwarber.
The Reds obviously have to be the favorites here, since they’ve been clearly linked and also have also been ited as possibilities….I don’t see that happening though…
He just priced himself out the door as far as the Reds go. I could’ve seen them going 2-3 years higher aav but I don’t see them dishing out any nine figure contracts, their windows for contention usually only last 2-3 years anyway
MadBum is going to get caught Keucheling himself
Wheeler literally has tear on his arm
After signing the contract, it must be a tear of joy.
My goodness, that sounds dirty!
Would fit in nicely in the 3 hole for the Mets 4/80 mil. The Mets have a lot of $$ coming off the books after next year. DeGrom,Syn,Bumg,Stroman and Matz
If Mets do sign MadBum which I doubt, they should seriously trade Thor to the Padres.
People keep comparing to what Wheeler received whom has less wear and tear on his arm and more upside at this point yes he comes with an injury risk but so does Ryu and MadBum whom has pitched a lot of innings. Before you were rewarded on your past that is not the case anymore if he is holding out for 9 figures he may wait a long time then. He may well get 5 years but the 5th year will be team option maybe he can kick in some extra cash with Innings pitch, all-star selection etc to get to this $100 million plus he is looking for but no way he is trending up so its more buyer beware with him.
Also it benefits him to stay in the N.L. otherwise coming over to the A.L. he won’t sniff anything past $75 million then as numbers will not be in his favor if he transitions over to the A.L.
Plus his bat makes more of a difference in the NL.
ATV’s are one of the few forms of Darwinism left in modern society.
Teams are likely wary that he’ll be physically able to fulfill such a contract. And whether doing so will even be his priority.
Even as an A’s fan I have massive admiration for Madbums acheivements, but 2014 and his Mickey Lolich impersonation of 1968 is a long time ago. He’s had two injury addled seasons (one self inflicted) and is win-loss 19-25 over the last three seasons. Not my money I know but I’d be steering clear of anything longer than four years.
He was a great pitcher but as many others have pointed out – is he better than a number three now?
I love madbum, but no, because If you give out 9 figures, it has to be 5 years….. no….. to much decline.
I fully expect the White Sox to go in with 100 million offer.
He is the best pitcher left that does not have Boras as an agent, who will be in their price range.
Think he’s a terrible fit, but going after Boars clients clearly is a nonstarter for this franchise.
Yea don’t see it. He’s been breaking down.
Madbum is best pitcher on market that won’t cost 200M. He will be paid handsomely, mostly for his past. If I’m White Sox, he’s my target. I’m wondering if he will bat in A.L.?
No.
He hits well for a pitcher, but not well enough to serve as anything more than a pinch hitter in inter league or extra-inning games as a regular batter.
Besides, if someone is shelling out 100 million, the last thing you need is a battling-related injury putting him on the shelf.
I want the White Sox to either sign Bumgarner or Kuechel since they are a cheaper options with post season experience to lead that young rotation of Giolito, Cease and Lopez. Kuechel does not have that draft pick attachment to him like Bumgarner. Cole would be great but he is expecting too much money and too many years. Six years is the max any team should give him right now due to his past of being mediocre to injuries. That Strasburg contract is crazy!
Guys like Cole and Strasburg perform well a year or two before hitting the market or opting out of contract to getting a bigger pay day. A guy like Bumgarner and Kuechel are proven work horses that a lot of teams are overlooking. The White Sox signing Grandal should attract one of these guys. I would be surprised if the White Sox sign Cole but they have money for the next few years to make it doable with the roster they have now to the controllable players and guys coming up in the next few years. Who knows what may or may not happen with these signings?
Bumgarner lost velocity and his fastball has been far less effective over the past few years. He’s just not the same pitcher. I’d say the Dallas Keuchel comparisons (in terms of value) are well founded. Keuchel started off where Bumgarner is with the nine figure ask and that did not work out well for him.
Totally agree with you – the velocity is concerning. That being said, Keuchel was throwing well under 90 MPH and his K rate had massively declined; MadBum is still throwing 91-92 and striking out a batter per inning. The HR allowed number is concerning, especially given how many games he pitched at Oracle, but I think he gets his 4 years at around $20M per.
If he wants 9 figures I would tack on another year (even if less effective at 36) just to bring the AAV down. 5/100 seems rich, but 6/100 seems more reasonable.
But does a team want to be stuck with that 6th year? I’d be scared to even be on the hook for the 5th because he’s probably a back of the rotation guy by then.
It’s less AAV but you might be paying $16M for a 5th starter the last two years of that deal.
Said this at the trade deadline, same holds true. Bumgarner has a higher floor of performance and Wheeler the higher ceiling. The less miles on his arm is interesting POV because as i see it Wheeler had gone thru a TJ procedure and if he had a second, recovery prospects decline significantly. Bumgarner hasn’t never had a baseball related arm injury and in theory like Will Smith bounce back from a TJ and be better.
HR has plagued both guys recently and really MLB what ball is going to be used in 2020, the 2019 regular season ball or the 2019 playoff ball, everyone would like to know. Beyond ridiculous MLB can’t get the ball consistent.
4 = an option 5th yr that vests or turns to a player option likely will get it done
Not sure why you feel Bumgarner has the higher floor here? If Bumgarner loses even a little velocity, he’s a back end of the rotation arm or maybe even middle relief pitcher. Wheeler can probably lose a little and still be a mid rotation arm.
Teams are scared of Bumgarner because his floor is so low. He could be Phil Hughes…
91-92 velocity at 30 and people think he is worth even 50 is hilarious. sure he was great but he has a ton of innings. if he was Joe Smith he would get 10 a year max
I wanted the Mets to grab him at the 4/75-80 range. Hell no on either 5 or 100. Too many miles.
As a Giants fan in a rebuilding mode ..
I think the Giants should give him 5 years 100/mil to keep the fan base happy… because we’re not gonna be happy with the W-L results of the next few seasons
Plus he’s our guy…. he and Buster
As a Dodger fan, I totally agree. Long live the rivalry.
As a Giants fan, please no. Career achievement awards were the hallmark of the previous regime and that thinking regularly saddled them with underwater deals. The Giants fan base should already be happy with the 3 WS titles that Bumgarner helped bring to the club. Last year should have been an indication, but the era of fan-appeasing moves is clearly over. Sorry to be a downer, but the Giants would trade Buster, Belt, and Crawford to any club that made them an offer of value right now.
Go to STL with Carp. Good #2 and #4 in their rotation. Leadership for the younger guys too..
The Twins should be all in on him for their rotation. They need a guy who has won the big game. A guy who can go to NY in the ALDS and actually win a game.
Wheeler was paid for his potential as he has shown consistent signs of growth. It was likely still a bit of an overpay, but he’s expected to improve. With MadBum it’s not about the age as much as the mileage on his arm. He hasn’t shown signs of growth and I’d argue he’s already passed his prime (albeit still very good). I think he may get the 9 figures because of his big game performances. Also the market seems demand that for pitchers these days. Still, buyer beware to some extent. I think he’d be a good fit on a win-now team like the Braves or Yankees.
If this turns out to be a similar situation to Keuchel last year, Bum doesnt get the offer he is looking for do you guys see the Angels, Dodgers, Twins, Cardinals, or Braves try to offer a 1 year deal?
He’ll be sitting around until the all star break if he sticks to that. Keuchel and Kimbrel should be all the evidence Bumgarner needs to forget that nonsense.
Who is Bumgarner’s agent? Pricing him high with draft pick compensation attached will limit his market appeal.
To much imo. Shouldn’t pay for his past, he’s not worth that.
Thank God the Phillies got Wheeler because if they missed on him they’d maybe be inclined to overpay for Bumgarner as some sucker team ultimately will. Four years and 70mil should be his cieling, as 3/50 is all he’s really “worth”. If someone gives him 5 years and 100mil they will be regretting it as early as next year I’d say. If I were the Twins, White Sox, Mets, Cardinals or such I’d rather swim in the Rick Porcello/Michael Wacha/Alex Wood waters than massively overpay on Bumgarner’s past success.
MadBum has been on a downward trend and is pretty much league average at this point. You’re only paying for the name at this point…
Still bitter because your Big Lefty crumbles in the playoffs, eh ?
I like Bumgarner, but I’m not so sure he’s worth that kind of money. Hopefully I’m wrong because it seems like the Twins have a good shot at signing him.
However, if he signs elsewhere I think Keuchel and Teheran would work just fine.
So he wants 100m? People in hell want ice water. About as much of a chance.
If you’re going to shell out 100-120mil for MadBum you might as well spend the 250mil it would take to get Cole and get triple the production.
Cole isn’t signing for anything like that without every team colluding against him.
Nine years for $315 million and that’s smart money.
If Cole goes for 9/315 then baseball has gone to hell in a handbasket.
I’m asking for 9 figures too.
Me too, but for me everyone wants to put the zeroes on the left instead of the right.
Unless he is including the two figures that come after the decimal point in that nine figur demand, I don’t see it happening. He just had bad timing. If he was a FA after the 2014 season, we would be talking about Cole trying to surpass MadBum’s record FA deal. But it’s all about timing.
I can’t see why Wheeler would get more money in the open market than MadBum. Similar age but Madbum has been healthier and more effective throughout his career.
The same friend of mine that told me Wheeler was close to signing with the Phillies the day before MLBTR reported it just told me they formally submitted a 6/228mil guarantee to Cole this morning, for what it’s worth.
“With a $38mil 7th year option with a 10mil buyout making the total gurantee $238mil”
Apparently they were all in on Rendon but are getting the feeling he’s going back to the Nationals unless the Texas Rangers meet their counter offer with the Dodgers a close 3rd place.
“Hey, what’s that over there?”
“Oh, that’s 1800 innings raising a red flag…”
Welllllll got to take my Braves officially out of this hunt now. We were likely barely hanging on to begin with. This will slash it.
I’m glad this takes him out of the Braves price range.
Unless he other plays his hand and the Bravea can get him like they did Kuechel last year LOL. Then I will take him haha
Wonder if MadBum will be this offseason’s Keuchel?
As long as he signs with Atlanta after the draft haha.
Just don’t see him getting that much guaranteed. 4 years, $76M from a team that plays in a pitcher’s park would probably be about right. I used to want him on the White Sox until I checked his road splits and the HR count. Don’t think he’d do well at GRF, way too small a park. Keuchel and his ground-ball ways are a better fit, even with Anderson’s crap defense at SS.
Hyrax…he’ll get the 100-110 5yrs simply because of supply and demand. You know Hahn and JR don’t want to be strung along by Boras for Keuchel/Ryu having landed no one else if they can avoid it. That 5th year clubs will know is likely a mess going in whether WSox/Twins/Braves/Angels/Cards, etc. Sox offense can now score and a less juiced baseball should help a smart pitcher adapt.
Bumgarner and Rodon are both from NC. Could be a good thing, but I think Bumgarner stays in NL.
Hilarious!
Angels:
MadBum 4/80
Ryu 3/54
About same AAV as Cole and will be help the team much more. could even sub in Keuchel for either and have some extra money for bullpen or catcher
Toronto can surely afford 100+mill, and who knows he may bounce back like Justin Verlander! Theyre close enough to contention, if his attitude and stuff checks out he could be a great veteran mentor for a young jays roster.
Only thing id worry about is him pitching in the al east and his injury history.
If this is what he wants, he is not going to sign with any team other than the Giants. He is this year’s Craig Kimbrel. He’ll be back with the Giants with a two or three year at less than half of what he’s seeking. Giants will do it at that level to appease the fan base.
“ Younger Wheeler? “ by a whopping year.
But by a significant amount of innings pitched…
I was opposed to Bumgarner when it was looking more like 4/60 or whatever it was. NOT because I think his last 2 year’s won’t be worth the money but because his FIRST 2 years won’t be.
Oracle park has hidden how much Bumgarner has regressed. You just have to look at his 5.29 road ERA and his 4.31 park adjusted FIP. His first year in Atlanta’s hitter friendly Sun Trust park he will get launched on.
Ironically I actually see a way where this DOES lead him to the Braves. If he doesn’t find the offer he wants, will he except a contract to avoid Keuchels situation from last year because Anthopoulos absolutely loves doing those deals.
Madbum prob more like 3/60, he’s past his prime or mayb @ his peak, should stay in NL, DH might be tough
I think the only teams that would fork up that kind of money for Bumgarner are the Braves,Twins and maybe the Cardinals. Obviously the Yankees easily could as well, but I don’t think Bumgarner has a lot interest in playing in New York. Don’t think he fits the Yankee culture and things like their no facial hair policy lol.
No thanks for the Cardinals. If they do I would hope just something short like 3 for 60M. Would rather go after Stratsburg or Cole.
Well strasburg signed, and id be shocked if cardinals spent what’s necessary to land cole. Ryu or bumgarner would be a nice 2nd starter behind flaherty for the cardinals.
If the Yankees or Angels don’t sign Cole they’ll overpay for Madison, DK and Ryu.
As much as I’d love to see Bumgarner in a Braves uniform, I just can’t see Atlanta paying the money necessary. I think someone is going to vastly over pay for Bumgarner.
I know this sounds crazy with the Nationals resigning Strasburg, but wouldn’t MadBum do well in Washington? I think that would be his final destination before retirement. It would give the Nats a innings eater and reliable arm.
Can’t wait for this mouth breathing lummox to sign already so I can quit reading about him
Lol. Hear, hear!
It will be interesting to see which pitchers pitches best moving forward between Cole, Wheeler, Strasburg, and Mad Bum.
I would be gobsmacked if it wasn’t Cole. Not to say it couldn’t happen, pitchers are fickle. But it would be astounding…
If the Angels can get a team to take Cosarts contract why can’t he Mets also with Lowrie and/or Familia. The Mets should sign MadBum they have a lot of $$ coming off the books after 2020. A rotation of deGrom,Syn,MadBum,Stroman and Matz looks pretty good. Or make a big trade with Detroit they need a 1b, Miggy has to DH how about D.Smith,Nimmo and Lowrie for Boyd and a RP.
As much as I don’t like the Twins getting pitching, I would love to watch TA pimp some homers off Bumgarner. It’d also make me want Puig in RF a lot more.
Cole to the yanks for $325 million!!!
Zaidi is pretty easy to read. He doesn’t expect to re-sign MadBum.
Won’t be the Braves….that’s Acuna money. Freddie will be a free agent after 2020.