Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger only started 21 games in 2019, but when he was healthy, he was dominant. Despite being limited to 126 innings, the 29-year-old had a 13-4 record and 2.71 ERA with 169 strikeouts — all numbers that will factor strongly into his arbitration case. In his career, Clevinger already has a 41-21 record and a 3.20 ERA in 500 2/3 innings. My model projects him at $4.5MM the first time through arbitration, but finding comparables is tricky due to his missed time in his platform year.
To look for comparables, I focused on a rather narrow scope: first-time eligible pitchers in the past five years who pitched between 75 and 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA in their platform year and who had 35-plus career wins.
Gerrit Cole in 2017 and Kyle Hendricks in 2018 were the only two pitchers to match those specifications. The former got $3.75MM, and the latter got $4.18MM. Both of those pitchers only won seven games in their platform season, however. Cole did have 47 career wins, topping Clevinger’s 41, but his platform ERA of 3.88 is clearly worse than Clevinger’s 2.71. Hendricks is more comparable, with a robust 2.94 career ERA that is similar to Clevinger’s 3.20. Hendricks’ 38-22 record favorably compares to Clevinger’s 41-21 mark as well. Hendricks makes for a pretty good comp, and adding two years of inflation onto his first-time arbitration salary would probably put Clevinger right around the $4.5MM that the model projects for him.
Another potential comparable who had fewer career wins and a weaker platform season, but was otherwise fairly similar, is Jacob deGrom back in 2017. He went 7-8 with a 3.90 ERA in 148 innings in his platform year, but he had a 2.74 career ERA and a 30-22 record with 479 1/3 innings. DeGrom got $3.9MM his first time through arbitration. This is a likely floor for Clevinger—it seems clear that he should safely exceed $4MM.
What is tricky about first-time eligible pitchers is that for more than a decade, they have rarely broken the $4.5MM barrier. Three pitchers did as part of multi-year deals: Tim Lincecum in 2010, Clayton Kershaw in 2012, and Lance Lynn in 2015. However, Kershaw had a Cy Young Award on his resume, and Lincecum had two. Lynn was a unique multi-year deal that was extremely flat (three years, $22MM), so the $7MM attributed to the first year is not really a reliable number on which to base any Clevinger predictions. The only first-time eligible pitcher who signed a one-year deal worth more than $4.5MM was Dallas Keuchel, who landed a $7.25MM salary after earning a Cy Young Award.
All told, when you consider Clevinger being limited to 21 starts in 2019, he seems unlikely to be the one who breaks the $4.5MM barrier that has been so difficult for first-time pitchers to surpass. However, it also seems likely that he should hit Hendricks’ $4.18MM salary — and probably exceed it. Viewed through this lens, Clevinger appears likely to get close to his model-projected salary.
PFFFFFFTTTT
Maybe the arb decision is holding up the trade to the Angels. Otherwise, why hold Adel when you could get an ace for a prospect?
#3 for adel? probably marsh plus 2. maybe 3.
Not Marsh either. Jam Jones, Thais and Ward.
Because he’s not an ace
Also because a special position player is more valuable than a special pitcher. Also because health. Also because way more control. There’s more alsos, but I think that’s enough to see why the Angels are holding onto him. I mean, it’s not like they are the ones who have been able to see him up close and personal and evaluate if he’s the next star or anything…
Special position players usually hit in the minors. OPS in the .830’s. Buyer beware.
Aces usually throw 200 innings. Buyer beware.
The Angels are the best positioned to evaluate if Adell is going to live up to it. The minors are about experience and developing the approach necessary to make the adjustments needed to exceed as a hitter, not the results. They obviously feel he has what it takes to be a big name.
Don’t forget his AAA debut: a .676 OPS in the hitter-friendly PCL.
The market says otherwise. If you look at the top five AAV for 2019, four of the five are starting pitchers.
He’s not? He sure pitches like one and he’s consistently in the top 10 2020 SP rankings. If Clevinger isn’t an ace then Adell is a 4th OF in the making.
Dude isnt an ace. Hes exceeded 120 innings once in three seasons.
He threw 200 innings in 2018 without any ill effects. He pulled a muscle in his upper back early last season then twisted his ankle in his first game back. 200 IP is what is expected of him and will be his workload.
Looking at his mechanics, it’s a pretty safe bet that he will always be at risk for muscular injuries. I’m sure teams see that too.
Adell isnt just any prospect
Because Adell isn’t enough straight-up for a starter with a sub-3 ERA the last 3 years that doesn’t cost a ton of money. And the Angels probably don’t have anything else that’s even remotely appealing to the Indians.
They probably want an arm back. And if the Angels had any of those, they wouldn’t be so desperate for Clevinger. Or be less than a year removed from giving money to Matt Harvey.
@Goawayrod hahahaha ok buddy! Lol Indians obviously like what they see why would they keep approaching the Angels on trades numbnutts. You sound soo clueless too. How tf are the Angels desperate?? They passed on trading for Kluber and signing keuchel, wheeler, ryu, and didn’t go 300 mill on cole. Eppler has even said in an interview that he has the pieces to play but he isn’t going to engage the market on ridiculous asking prices. The Angels are finally making concise well thought out moves. All the haters aren’t fans nor are informed on the players. The tired and lazy narrative is that they have no pitching and farm system.
How do you know who’s approaching who? Why is totally whiffing on the market of better pitchers a good thing?
I meant offering or proposing trades. Because if they weren’t interested then why even discuss trades, they obviously lineup well it’s just a matter of finding a fair deal for both sides. And you say “whiffing” but the Angels had the capital to offer more money to any of those players minus Cole but they decided not to so it was by choice.
LaFlamaFullaShitter, the Indian’s didn’t come asking the Angels anything. The Angels have been searching for SP for quite some time because theirs sucks. That’s why they’ve been trying to sign FA’s and asked about Kluber, Carrasco, Clevinger, and a host of other SP. It has to be frustrating being an Angels fan. We Indian’s fans have only been able to enjoy division titles in all but one of the last 4 yrs. while you’ve celebrated two in the last 10 yrs. That must really suck! I’m sure Adell will put you over the hump this season though.
It is no “narrative”. The Angels have a terrible starting staff and one of the worst farm systems in baseball. The truth can be a cruel thing. Especially when your utopia is being crushed by it.
Not saying your wrong but on avg Angels fans are as dumb as they come- I live right down the street
Whats holding up the trade to the Angels is an asking price. Adell has far more years of control and at 20 yrs old the Angels think that he holds a higher upside. Adell woyld take more than Clevinger for the Indians to acquire. Clev can be dominant, but he teally needs to throw better than 180 innings to be considered an ace.
Cleveland isnt going to trade him unless they get a pie in the sky prospect like Adell. They are shooting for the moon, but if they don’t get someone like Adell, they will keep him because he is very affordable at the moment. You are not going to get a guy with Clevingers stuff for 4 million / yr.
From the Angel perspective, they can see that he has injuries and that he has a violent herky jerky delivery. He hasn’t shown that he is durable and that he can hold up. This is unlikely to change with age as he approaches 30. The risk isn’t worth Adell.
A bargain at current insane prices.
You can say that again. Any team would like to have him and plug him in as their 3. Lots of potential there and cheap!
You have no clue how arbitration works do you suffer? Its not a bargain, its what hes earned for himself so far based on the arbitration structure/process – Current “insane prices’ are based on free agents…I wonder now if you even know the difference?
Somebody help this guy
Arbitration breakdown from a fundamental standpoint
Explain how a 38-22 record compares favorably to a 41-21 record? Won loss records are hardly meaningful but I think more wins and fewer losses is still the preferred outcome.
I think you misunderstood the intending meaning of compares favourably in this context. He meant they are close numbers so therefore it is useful to compare i.e. 38-22 compares more favourably to 41-21 than 30-22 does
Are you serious? Those numbers are ridiculously close! Plus Wins & Losses are one of the least important stats for evaluating a pitcher. I believe DeGrom recently won a Cy Young with a .500 W-L record too.
Degrom had a 3.04 era in 2016 not 3.90
Strength is irrelevant
Again. Dear Angel fans, you will not get a cost controlled TOR SP like Clevinger from a contending team for Adell and a spare piece. Dream all you want, but it ain’t gonna happen. If you don’t think Clevinger is an “ace” then good luck finding a better SP with your pathetic farm system. Other than Adell and Trout, you have nothing the Indians need. Sorry!
megalomaniac!
LMAO enjoy your third place finish with Lindor and Clevinger still on the team. 84-78 so exciting!!!!
Well they won 93 games in an injury riddled 2019 season. LMAO! I’ll enjoy competing for another AL Central title or a WC birth while you wish you had better SP when your season is over in August. So exdciting!!!!!!!!!
Yeah, call me crazy, but I like my “special prospects” to hit like they’re special in the minors. Adell hasn’t really done that, has he?
They start with the excuses about his relative age and blah blah…
Mind you, this is coming from a Yankee fan. I know a thing or two about overhyped prospects who can’t hit minor league pitching. We sold high on Jesus Montero once. Same kind of guy. He’s elite, he’s elite…. yeah, sure.
Keep Clevinger. If you’re gonna trade a dude like that, you need TWO+ high end prospects. So there’s some margin for error.
Another one that comes to mind (and still amazes me) was RA Dickey for D’Arnaud and Syndergaard. Synder was a friggin’ throw-in. And the centerpiece was Mr. Glass… but even HE had a .975 OPS the year before at AAA.
Great point because it coincides with my opinion.
Adell’s numbers in the minors, with a spiked ball, are not too impressive.
so much “this”
Potential is great but ultimately the game is “show me”.
Celvinger has not only shown at the Major level but he can, in fact, get better.
Why there’s any doubt a team would want good “Major League Potential” in return for “Major League Proven” when they’re the team that’s gambling on talent potential being realized while the other team is getting talent that’s been proven?
Adell had a .944 OPS in AA. He can’t even legally drink a beer. Lets cut the stupidity with bashing him. Clevinger is worth a ton also. They both are. But the Angels probably won’t make the deal. Which is fine at this point. Let’s see how good this Angels team even is before they go ahead and trade their far and away best prospect.
Again Cleveland fan, the Angels wont make Adell a part of any trade that doesnt involve a true Ace. Clevinger doesnt meet that criteria. The Angels need pitching, yes, but onlya true #1 will get the Angels to bite. If Clevinger is available, and the Indians want a deal with the Angels it will start with Brandon Marsh and maybe end with a mlb ready player or two. Ex:Thiass and Rengifo etc. Otherwise it aint happening brother. Everybody wants Adell for good reason hes rated #2-5 MLB prospect depending on the publication.
He’d be your ace and it wouldn’t even be close. Hell, he’s our ace and our staff makes yours look like a low level minor league rotation.
@cdav45 Shane Beiber says hello clown. Lol
He’ll be our #2 clown just like he was last season clown. You’re a special kind of stupid aren’t you.
Not doing the trade would be the Angels’ loss, especially given their rotation.
@Cdav45 you are the epitome of a trolling homer. Can you not read the articles??? Indians initially asked for Marsh and other prospects in the Kluber deal and Angels turned that down, they’re obviously interested in something the Angels have you clown. Now in this trade scenario you’re saying the Indians would want more than adell lol I’m sorry but you either don’t have common sense or you really are clueless. And I’m also sure baseball america and all the other propect rankings have absolutely no idea on what they are talking about and you Mr keyboard GM knows more about the potential or makeup of a prospect based off of your world renowned baseball expertise. Tell me more about how your an expert on the Angel’s farm because you love them soo much. Again you’re nothing but a clown who koves to troll about the Angels.
Not a troll at all. I’m the Indian’s fan and this article is about Clevinger’s arbitration. So guess what! You’re the troll.
You have no clue other than rumors and click bait from a poor source about any initial asking price. Again, we’re the contenders and you’re hoping to start moving in that direction before Trout retires you clown.
WTH has Adell done? He’s a highly ranked prospect that looks to be quite over hyped. That happens quite frequently. You don’t have to be a GM to know that. You just have to have a bit of common sense and the ability to do a little research. He hit a combined 289/359/475/834 with 10 HR in 305 Ab. He’s a damn fine prospect for sure, but he is not ready. He is certainly not worth a pitcher like Clevinger an it’s not even close.
Your farm system is one of the weakest in all of baseball, but yet you somehow think that stockpiling a bunch of crappy prospects will land you your #1 SP. You don’t have a clue do you?
We will give you a relief pitcher for him. Aka the “Texas Special”
Chirinos nearing deal with rangers.
The Angels should definitely go after Clevinger. Adell May be great one day but you need pitching. You’ve already waisted Trout’s career to date, don’t screw Rendon’s up as well.
Had he not gotten hurt and battled injuries last season I have no doubt he’d have been in the thick of the Cy Young race.
Whats holding up the trade to the Angels is an asking price. Adell has far more years of control and at 20 yrs old the Angels think that he holds a higher upside. Adell woyld take more than Clevinger for the Indians to acquire. Clev can be dominant, but he teally needs to throw better than 180 innings to be considered an ace.
No. What’s holding up the trade is the Angel’s lack of talent. It’s also the reason they want to hang onto Adell. Outside of Trout, Ohtani, and the newly signed Rendon, you have nothing much to offer. I wish you the best of luck. I truly do because I hate the Astros, but that is the cold hard truth.
The stupidity of these comments is beyond belief. Mike Clevinger threw 200 innings in 2018. Can we please stop knocking guys for BS reasons? Clevinger is a TOR starter. Adell is an elite OF prospect. Both are true. It comes down to needs and window of opportunity. If the Angels decide they want to go all in right now and for the next 3 years; they might bite the bullet. If not, then they won’t. It’s not a ridiculous ask from Cleveland. The Angels don’t have the farm system to get a deal done without Adell. That’s nothing but a fact.
The Angels aren’t the only suitor. Clevinger isn’t going to go for Brandon Marsh and Luis Rengifo. That’s the biggest pile of dog crap I’ve ever heard. Cleveland isn’t in a position like they were with Bauer and Kluber. Clevinger is really cheap right now—He doesn’t have to be traded.
Steve Phillips must’ve been smoking crack after leaving ESPN. There’s so much hot air in your posts I could fill an entire hot air balloon.
You are hilarious, I stated that atrade involving Adell for less than an ace aint happening. Thats a fact… pretty simple. I also said if the Indians want a deal it would start with Marsh, read and dont assume. If Marsh plus one or two prospects/MLB ready prospects doesnt satisfy the Indians, it too wont happen either. By the way genius that crack I smoked was da kine, only it wasnt crack, it was free base. Lol, your a troll and just pissed off because Anaheim is in lovely Southern California and Cleveland is… well… Detroit without the glitter
Simmons, Marsh, Adams, Suarez, Barria, for Clevinger and Bauers. Simba can play short and you can trade Lindor and get even more talent
That would be a good trick for the Tribe to throw in Bauer on that deal!! Hes in Cincy bro
Maybe he meant Bauers, not Bauer. (He did say Bauer, after all.)
Pretty sure he meant jake bauers.
simba is the best defensive shotstop and is good with a bat when he’s not hurt. you don’t trade away the defensive anker.
and can you imagine how much braves regret trading him away?
No chance of that offer being accepted call for the angels. Clevinger is not being traded.
@califoniaangels The Indians wouldnt want Simmons. He is making $15M this year.
The guy that lifts his foot multiple times and still doesn’t get called balk on
Clevinger for Trout and Marsh would be a good trade if the Angels pick up at least half of Trout’s salary.
See! I can come up with stupid trade ideas too.
@cdav45 Fool us once while we pay Gary Matthews Jr to play for another team, shame on you
Fool us twice while we pay Josh Hamilton to play for another team, shame on you again
Fool us thrice while we pay Trout to play for another team,,,,,,,,
@MrAngelFan. Hopefully it was obvious that was not a serious trade suggestion. The Angels have a good prospect in Adell. He certainly has some serious value, but it is not nearly as much as Clevinger currently has. He is cheap for 3 more years and is a consensus top 10 SP in MLB. If you had Clevinger and we were looking to acquire him, there is no way that Jones(#37) and McKenzie(#79) would get him without a good major league piece. Adell could head a legitimate package for a pitcher like Clevinger, but your system has little else of value to offer. Me personally, I hope that if Clevinger is traded that it is not to the Angels for that reason. I’m not trying to put the Angels down. In fact, of the AL West teams it is them who I would like to see win the division.
What pisses me off is morons like LaFlamaBlanca that think Adell is the second coming of Trout and is worth more than a young, inexpensive, TOR SP like Clevinger. While Adell is clearly a gifted athlete and young for the levels he’s played, he has not produced numbers that are awe inspiring. Especially while playing in notorious hitter friendly leagues. Again, not trying to be disrespectful or mean. It’s just the truth.
@cdav45 Yes, I know that was not a serious trade. Trout is signed for life and isn’t going anywhere.
Adell, like Marsh, is a 5 tool player. Both can hit, hit for power, and run. The problem is they both strike out a lot. The difference between the 2 is Adell has more bat speed. Adell had a decent year in double A. His numbers are comparable to Trout at the same stage. Trout has a little higher average, Adell more power. Trout was 19. Adell is 20 year old competing against competition much older than himself.
Clevinger no doubt has proven he is hard to hit and is a top of the rotation starter. He has the ability to be a 20 game winner. However, he has some questions like Adell does. He has a violent delivery. Whether he can be durable or not remains to be seen. He has had 2 seasons as a full time starter and one season was cut short. One season out of 2 is not good indication that he is durable. He is 29 now. Thirty becomes a scary proposition for some pitchers.
Adell is the #2 prospect. The last 2 times the Angels had a prospect that high, it was Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Both were rookies of the year and both are re-writing history. One as one of the best ever and one doing something that has never been done before. I realize that top prospects are hit or miss. The fact remains is that these type prospects are rarely traded. Baseball is like a box of chocolates. When it comes to top prospects, there is a Dylan Bundy for every Ronald Acuna. You never know what you are going to get.
I understand the reluctance on both sides That is why this trade is not going to happen.
I
I just hope that the Angels dont have 2am syndrome. Thats when the hottest chicks (starters) are all gone from the bar,and after a night of drinking even the so so girls start looking better at 2am…Clevinger is a so so girl until he proves to be an ace. It will serve the Angels better to wait until next Saturday nite and not wake up next to someone that would be a 2nd or 3rd choice. We already have a host 3s,4s and 5s. Innings eaters. The need a true #1 and i just dont think Clevinger is that. He very well may turn out to be one but with the history of injuries to Angel pitching, hes not worth the risk of a consensus top five prospect in Adell
@Steve Phillips “Clevinger is a so so girl” Is that what you think? Don”t let the long hair fool you. That is a man bro. Be honest. Were you checking out Clevinger?
Lmaooo you sound soooo hurt why? Is that really what I’m hoping for??? Haha please! Is Adell a damn fine prospect or an overhyped one? make up your mind lol. Not ready? Not ready for what exactly?? Last I checked Adell is rated #2-#5 top prospect in all of baseball depending on the article you read. Anthony Kay and simeon woods got stroman, allen and reyes got bauer, torres got chapman, kopech/moncada for sale, eloy jimenez got quintana (when he was really good), martin, beer, and baukaskas got greinke, brinson/yamamoto/diaz got yelich, francisco mejia got brad hand. Torres, Jimenez, and Moncada are the only prospects that were ranked as high as Adell, how are you gonna tell me that a prospect of this magnitude plus other pieces won’t come close to being enough to acquire a quality pitcher of Clevinger’s caliber haha! You’re being a flat out troll hater or being bias smh.
Would you now like to list all the other trades for highly touted minor league players that never did anything or should I ?
Take off the Rose colored glasses
check the numbers adell posted in aa, the most pitcher-friendly league. while in aaa he suffered ankle injury that is cured now.
Lmaoo what are you talking about???? None of these prospects are yet to do anything either other than Moncada and Gleyber. The rest are even bigger question marks than Adell. All I’m trying to point out is that Adell will definitely be able to bring back a quality pitcher if the Angels do decide to part with him. If you disagree then you’re probably a troll or like to hate on the Angels. If Adell were a yankee, cub, dodger, or astros propsect everyone would be deeming him untouchable. But because it’s the Angels and the narrative has been to bash them without any actual prior knowledge of the team this has been the popular opinion.
Wonder if the Mets match up yet. Mets offer Matz and Nimmo for Clevinger and a right handed hitting outfielder.
Or go big: Rosario, Matz, Syndergaard, Nimmo for Lindor, Clevinger, rh’ed of’er and another arm?
Not even close Jimmy Boy. Matz and Nimmo isn’t enough for Cleveland to pick the phone up.
You are hilarious, I stated that atrade involving Adell for less than an ace aint happening. Thats a fact… pretty simple. I also said if the Indians want a deal it would start with Marsh, read and dont assume. If Marsh plus one or two prospects/MLB ready prospects doesnt satisfy the Indians, it too wont happen either. By the way genius that crack I smoked was da kine, only it wasnt crack, it was free base. Lol, your a troll and just pissed off because Anaheim is in lovely Southern California and Cleveland is… well… Detroit without the glitter
That is fine with me, Steve. The Indians, with Mike Clevinger, will win the AL Central and be in the playoffs and the Angels, with Adell, will finish in fourth in the AL West and again will be sitting home in October.