The Padres continue to push for another star as they engage in trade discussions with the Red Sox for Mookie Betts and the Pirates for Starling Marte. The newest tidbit comes for MLB Network insider Jon Heyman who tweets that the Padres are more likely to move Luis Patino than MacKenzie Gore. To be clear, Heyman also notes that trading top prospects for one year of Betts doesn’t make intuitive sense for the Padres. They are – at the very least – interested and exploring the cost.
What we can really glean from Heyman’s tweet is more about the internal hierarchy with which the Padres view their system. Though the implication is that the Padres would consider moving Patino for Betts, that’s far from explicit and runs counter to most of the scuttlebutt coming out of San Diego.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have expressed interest in catching prospect Luis Campusano, Baseball America’s #79 ranked prospect, tweets The Athletic’s Dennis Lin. That might be a more reasonable place to start, depending on the money changing hands in any potential deal. Campusano would be a solid get in any deal after putting together a .325/.396/.509 year as a 20-year-old in High-A.
As for Marte, reports over the last couple of days have been conflicting to an almost comical degree. News from the Mets and Padres – the two noted teams of interest – both evoked cooling interest due to asking price. Heyman, meanwhile, reported that the talks have “intensified,” which in trade parlance usually connotes positivity, though literally speaking, intensity doesn’t necessarily imply progress. Speculatively speaking, it appears there may be a little gamesmanship as one side or all three may be doing what they can to push negotiations in their direction.
This deal makes sense if you switch your mentality to dumping Myers contract. That contract hinders 2021+ with Mookie as a cherry on top.
I think patino and gore are still off the table though.
So Padres get 1 year of Mookie, Dump Myers contract, get 2021 Compensation Pick, and they dont have to give up either of their top 2 prospects. Come on.
That is pretty much what Padre fans think. Feel they are doing the Sox a favour I guess.
I mean I’m sure SD would love to dumps Myers for Betts, especially if they’re not dealing Gore or Patino. What benefit is this to Boston, though? The stated stance out of Boston is if you want Betts, you’re taking on Price, and giving up 2 top prospects. There’s probably a bit of posturing taking place there, I’ll grant you. If you want the Sox to eat Myers deal however, you’re assuredly giving up Gore AND Patino. If you want to do a deal without one, or both, say hello to David Price in SD.
True
The inclusion of Myers would only happen if Price were in the deal. Saving the Red Sox $10/10/10 in that Price-Myers swap would save the Padres some prospect capital, but not much of it.
It may allow someone like Taylor Trammell to headline a package instead of sending Mack Gore or Luis Patino as a headliner.
In the Betts-Myers swap, the Padres get one of the best players in baseball, a compensatory draft pick (in case Betts really is a rental), and save $40 million. They really should be adding at least 2 of their top 5 to make that happen. Myers’ contract jumps from $5mill to $23mill this year. That’s a lot of money for a fifth outfielder.
If the Sox got Gore or Patiño they would be fleecing the Friars. There’s plenty of talent outside of them that Boston would be content with. It makes a lot more sense to give up quantity than quality in this deal, when you only get a year of Mookie. Not to forget, this deal also helps the Sox get under the luxury.
It turns you don’t know what the Red Sox would be content with.
It doesn’t help the Sox that much. Myers’ AAV is about half of Mookie’s. Now if the Padres took Price as well, the Sox could get under the AAV and keep their top prospects. Price and Betts for Campusano, Quantrill, Cronenworth, and Weathers? Who hangs up?
That’s still a huge savings luxury tax wise and allows them to potentially get under the line by dealing Bradley and some other mid-level contract. I believe they’re about $30 over… so saving $13.5M on this deal plus $13 for Bradley and they’re that much closer. Obviously trading Price and as much of his contract as possible is still the best option – it may not be all that easy to do. Bottom line is the Sox NEED to get below the line, not because of $ concerns but because of the baseball penalties they are starting to incur — dropping 10 spots in the draft, losing International Bonus Pool $, getting nothing but a 5th rd comp pick for any FA who declines a QO — people are getting carried away with ripping the Sox for “being cheap” about the luxury tax line stuff — but it’s NOT about the $… the other penalties are potentially crippling to the team’s ability to try and rebuild their minor league system etc.
I don’t think they are ripping the Red Sox for being cheap but rather for expecting to think they have leverage. All major league GMs know the penalties and what taking a large contract off their hands does. Why would they not try and use that to reduce the price they pay for one of Boston’s large contracts.
NO way that’s way too much to give up for a rental, if the Sox eat 1/2 of Prices’s salary for the next two yrs. trade Betts then we can start negotiating but the Sox get Myers and his salary, plus two top 100 prospects from the Friars. I would not do any trade for a one yr rental, no way no how..
Good input. The first year or 2 over the threshold isn’t bad but after that. Most owners really don’t want to go over it at all. These are rich business men, even losing a few million dollars for nothing is insane for them.
@Jeff – those penalties you lump together cover multuple tiers of penalty. Some of those are only triggered by crashing the highest level as a repeat offender on a non-revenues haring club.
Sox as they sit will not break the top level, and thus some of those won’t apply.
Also, lowest level of draft compensation for a QO is 4th round. A 450m payroll would still get a 4th rd. 10 slot penalty is only for the 1st rd pick, and only if crashing the highest level of limit the sox are already substantially under.
I think if anyone is stupid enough to wipe out their farm system and has the pieces to do it then it would be the Padres. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. They will overnight lose their top farm system rating as Mookie will command a Kings ransom even for just one year of service. Plus you have to look at it as Mookie would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer so that would net the Red Sox a top draft pick in 2021.
and what about the sox “dumping” salary. i doubt they would dump betts and a draft pick assuming he turns down QO and take on myers. not with out padres covering most of the salary. more so if they think myers is dead money.
imo for the sox to take myers padres would need to give up the farm.
What’s the hang up here? Trying to exchange bloated contacts? Or what prospect capital it would take for a year of Mookie?
Sox want more than padres want to give for a year of mookie so padres want them to take myers. As a result the sox then want more
Yankee, I think Mookie may like n wanna stay in SD. It maybe Boston was too much pressure n scrutiny. Reportedly he turned down Harper money, wanting to top Trout money. Regardless I wish him well he’s a pleasure to watch in RF.
He wants to hit free agency, and will take the largest contract offered. If that’s the Padres then he will play there. If it’s not he will play somewhere else.
Sounds about right….hope he can find a contract and location that suits him because if he thinks he’s worth the same as Trout his agent has already messed with his head
Bingo
@pasha2k if you’re so sure the Padres will be able to sign Betts then trading for him makes no sense. One year from now he will cost no prospects. Just $.
@Mcmillan
Agreed. Ask the following questions. 1. What teams will be far enough under the cap to give a Trout-like contract? 2. Of those teams, which would need an OF? 3. Which would be close enough to contending that he would be willing to sign with them? Only a few teams were serious suitors for Harper. Same will be true for Betts. He will get paid, but not by a team that’s already contending with an existing $200MM payroll.
pasha2k – Please cite your information (post link to article or official Red Sox response) on Betts “turning down Trout money and wanting to top Trout money”. Because I have seen nothing of the sort.
@SG. Pasha always talks like that. She’s a big Red Sox fan.
I heard it from Da Shawnesy that he turned down 300, n also heard they think he just doesn’t wish to play in Boston they FEEL.
That is pretty much what Padre fans think. Feel they are doing the Sox a favour I guess.
How much of Myers they’re going to eat, probably also want gore or patino which probably won’t happen.
Mookie for Myers Morejon Weathers and Baez
Sox want Campusano
Nope you can have hedges and like it
Lol
That is not how you negotiate lowtalker. No one would bother to deal with you with that attitude.
Hedges would be one of the elite catchers in the game if he could just swing the damned bat. But it’s like Tommy Lasorda once said about Kurt Bevacqua: “He couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.”
agreed. If Hedges just hit for average he would be considered on of the best in the game today. But because his BA is so low he is viewed as
Boston isn’t taking on Myers without at least one of Gore or Patino. To think otherwise is California Dreaming. Lol
No it’s not.
Myers for Price
Betts for Morejon Baez Miller Vosler Quantril
Padres have a lot of depth to help the red Sox pen and rotation and some infield depth. Two.of Boston’s primary needs.
Padres don’t have to include any of their top prospects but would have to send at least 5 or 6 secondary type prospects that are mlb ready.
The idea of trading Myers for Price is a non starter. Padres are not looking to increase payroll to get rid of Myers. Price is 10 mil more per year for the next 3. Then add on 27 mil for Betts. Not going to happen.
Yes but unlike Myers Price is still actually a pretty good player. I don’t understand why Boston would trade Betts for Myers unless they were also trading Price and his salary – or unless they were getting one or two of SD’s top prospects. If Boston trades Price in addition to Betts then I can’t see Boston getting back that much from SD. SD would be taking on more salary than Price is worth even though Price is still a nice starter.
LOL maybe send two 100 top prospects for a one yr rental
Sox are in trouble.
They have a bad Farm system and are about to get draft penalties for cheating plus hit with a HUGE fine for repeat offenders of the payroll threshold.
If they can get 3-4 very good prospects and Myers AND get under the payroll limit it is worth it to them.
Sure, plus $67 million to cover Myers’ contract.
Terrible trade. Baseballtradevalues.com gives San Diego a $23 mill advantage in surplus value.
Add in Campusano and it balances out nicely.
That’s not enough to dump Myers without also getting Mookie back.
says who? Sox should take that and move on, or at least have Sox eat the difference between Price and Myers salary and Friars add two level prospects.
I don’t trust anything Heyman says, he works for the teams whether he knows it or not is irrelevant. nothing is going on with Marte
My guess is they gain Marte and hang on to their farm. 1 year of Mookie doesn’t guarantee a run in the postseason. Hard to imagine the Padres holding their prospects tight this long and then using a bunch of them to dump Myers.
The addition of Betts likely doesn’t get the Padres to the playoffs, much less make a run in them. It certainly would not make them good enough to win the division, but I highly doubt they would get a Wild Card spot, either.
If you think the Padres are going to come away with their farm system not touched with the Pirates and Marte, you are undervalued Marte and why your just a fan. If Padres want Marte, they will need to pay the price and that is with some of their prospects. Pirates want a catcher in any deal with Marte and the reason why Padres and Mets are talked about so much with a Marte trade. Both Padres and Mets don’t want to cough up their future catcher for anyone. Catchers are “hard to come by”. There aren’t a whole lot of catchers who can man the position without a platoon partner. Catching is the weakest position on the market.
Blue Jays at a time was also in on Marte but they don’t want to lose one of their young catchers. This rumor stuff is only speculation and want to get fans talking silly with trades that neither team desires. I seen a trade suggesting Myers to the Pirates for Marte. That is so silly and make no sense for either team. Some of these trade ideas from the fans make me want to ask what they are drinking and/or what illegal drugs they are doing. Because I want some to think so delusional lol
You are right. Marte for Myers isn’t even remotely logical. The Pirates probably SHOULD take Myers and get some elite prospects back. But they don’t even spend money for GOOD players.
Marte may be dealt, but it will be for 2-3 prospects with at least one ready to compete for a MLB job. Marte is a solid CF who is a 25/25 type player. You don’t find those guys hanging around the 7/11.
I saw Ketel Marte at the 7-11 just the other day.
If the Padres want a 25/25 player, they’ll keep Myers.
Who cares about a 25/25 player? Freddy Galvis hit 23 HR’s last season. Myers also strikes out too much and is a clubhouse cancer.
They’re starting to get close to Rule 5 protection though (Padres) so they need to start making some moves soon.
marte for myers, patino, camp. a fair portion of myers salary is a good start.
without myers replace patino with weathers
regardless, padres will likely be with out camp no matter who they deal with
Hard pass, thanks!
You’ll see Morejon and Torrens or it’s no deal.
I don’t want to move any of those 3 for a one year rental.
Scenario: Betts comes in has a great year, we miss the playoffs
Outcome: Preller is fired, the new GM moves many of Prellers additions.
Conclusion: We lost 2 top ten prospects for one year of Betts
Solution: Make the deal for 2 top 30 prospects. 1 top 20, and 1 top 30. Plus they get Myers.
Plus Campusano
I guess the real question this: what does SD have to lose really? Farm ranking honks rating them higher?? What has all these prospects gotten them so far? Not a whole lot.
It always amazes me that teams who year after year do nothing but collect highly “ranked” prospects but never go anywhere. Worthless if all they do is run out the clock to Free agency in sunny San Diego
Who needs prospects like tatis, am I right? That guy sucks. The padres should trade a future ace for 1 year of betts because that’s really going to get them over the hump, am I right? Honk honk, the circus is in town
I think you missed his point. Thoughtful usage of prospect wealth could be the key to making the next step for the Padres. First, I don’t think they make the trade without believing they could fund a future contract with Betts, in which case it could potentially be a hugely successful deal for them to make now- even if it costs a couple of prospects.
@Rondon by your logic no one is trading for Betts. He has stated on multiple occasions that he is testing free agency.
The issue isn’t not moving prospects, it’s what do you get for that. Are the Padres the best team in the AL West with snooker on board? Maybe? You don’t move your top two prospects for one year of a maybe make the playoffs. If you can definitively say this move makes us serious World Series contenders then you do it.
Qbass, the real question to me is can they find a young budding star to trade their real gems for if they want to win now while Machado is at his peak? Not saying he’s available but multiple stud prospects to me unless the return puts you over the top should be traded for someone like Devers who has years to go before free agency. That’s why I still think the talks from Boston’s perspective is to get the Dodgers to call. They are ready to win and a Betts/Price deal could get them the WS championship ring in 2020 that they’ve been chasing.
Machado peaking lol
You signed him. This is likely the best you’ll see. By the way how about a we pay for your mistake now and then it gets reversed years from now.? The Padres add Price now and when Machado has three years left, he goes to Boston.
Devers is cheap he’s going nowhere
Lolol! Why would Boston do this? Mookie Betts is *literally* an MVP player in his prime and you are saying that he is only worth 2 average prospects AND Boston would have to take on the disastrous Wil Meyers contract? Get real. Not happening.
Yes it is happening. What good is Betts in a lame-duck year and he walks away in September for nothing. I’d rather have two top 30 prospects.
At which point you’re stuck with 3 years of Myers.
What good is Betts in a lame duck year?! Sheesh! First you get a year of his production, sell some tickets, and win some games. Plus you never know how the playoffs will go. The Nats weren’t the best team going in last year, and they won a title.
Secondly, the comp pick and not having Myers on the ledger is worth a great deal too.
Mookie is also a RENTAL!
MetsKing..
Yes I hear you, Myers not the greatest but I’ll take him and put him at first and he will be okay. Plus we get a couple prospects who could turn out to be good players? Better than mookie walking for zero at the end of the year. Just my opinion.
You don’t have any working knowledge of how baseball free agency works. Even if Betts leaves, Boston will receive a compensation pick somewhere between rounds 2-4. That’s an above average prospect right there. Essentially you are ok with trading an MVP caliber player for one above average prospect and a terrible Wil Meyers contract . Sorry, but Mookie Betts is worth A LOT more than that. Back to the drawing board for you, Gary.
Due to their being over the cap, best Boston will get is a 4th round.
VegasSDfan….you can’t ignore the $20 mil savings in both 21’ and 22’ for Myers.
That along with Richards/Olivera/Kinsler/YATES/Profar and SD could sign Betts and then some.
You know the young guys will hit arbitration, right? They’ll get expensive.
jbigz12…..not $50 mil expensive.
Padres could sign Betts and extend Tatis and still have the money.
We don’t have anyone hitting Arb. The next 2 years that will cost much.
Paddack/Mejia/Naylor/Cordero….all only have 1 season.
The Padres are paying Machado $32 million AAV. Betts is going to cost around $35 million AAV (if they resign him). If the deal includes Price, that’s another $32 million AAV. Your losing Myers at $22 million AAV, but are paying Hosmer the same amount, so thats a wash. That’s $121 million per year wrapped up in 4 players. They still have to pay another 22 players to field a team. Cost controlled players notwithstanding, those pitching prospects ALL have to pan out. If they don’t, the Padres will have trouble paying free agent pitching. With Tatis, Machado, Hosmer, and a so-so Myers they only won 70 games last year. The BoSox would be stupid not to ask for the world in return for Betts. The Pads have 5 top 100 prospects. Boston would ask for at least 2, plus another top 30 in their system. taking Myers will be a swap for Price, bad contract for bad contract. The caveat, convincing Betts to resign.
@mrpadre19 Let’s be honest. Betts would only be a one-year thing in San Diego.
@Hammmbone the “trade for a player and extend him” strategy doesn’t work for the Padres. The only way the Padres are getting Betts is by offering him the most money (like they did with Hosmer and Machado). I don’t see that happening.
The idea of trading Myers for Price is a non starter. Padres are not looking to increase payroll to get rid of Myers. Price is 10 mil more per year for the next 3. Then add on 27 mil for Betts. Not going to happen.
Sure just trade the whole padre team for a one yr rental, LOL
jtm2889… you have no working knowledge how Baseball trades work. You think the Red Sox will trade Mookie Betts for full price Wil Myers and one prospect? You’d rather hold out for the compensation pick after qualifying offer? I don’t agree.
I think trading mookie for a decent package is the way to go. There’s no way I would settle for that compensation pic when he walks away for nothing.
Perhaps our difference in thinking is that you believe the Red Sox will contend for a title this year. I don’t. I don’t keep mookie hanging around in a lame-duck year while he could be traded for some pieces of great value.
If the Padres get Myers they either take Price or give up their entire top 5.
Name 1 rental in history that has gotten not just any franchises top 5 but a top 5 in the top 100 in MLB.
Name 1 rental in history that has gotten not just any franchises top 5 but a top 5 in the top 100 in MLB.
Name 1 rental in history that has gotten not just any franchises top 5 but a top 5 in the top 100 in MLB.
That comment makes NO sense..,as SD already has Myers.
That comment makes NO sense…as SD already has Myers.
Gore is gonna be a no doubt superstar. There are very few prospects I’m so sure on, he’s one. He’s gonna be legit legit, not just good, legit. Padres have pitching lined up to be good for a while, I understand you have to improve hitting, but do it trading another prospect
Well if your so sure and your you … then that means…well nothing
What’s the point in making that comment? Why not just not comment at all unless you are contributing to dialogue in the thread?
hockeynick97, you just did exactly the same thing in your post that you are criticizing someone else for doing in their post. Good job.
Hockey, stop “nickpitting”.
him and luzardo seem like the leagues next best pitching prospects
him and luzardo seem like the leagues next best pitching prospects
Betts for Myers, Patino, Campusano, Gresham, Cronenworth, and Quantrill. And no money. Deal? It does take a lot of extra prospects to take Myers contract back.
I think that’s about right, Ketch.
Ketch……You are insane!
Patino and Campusano are set to be major league all stars and the Sox would have them for SIX years.
You think the Padres are so desperate to save money they would give that up…plus 3 other prospects just for a year of Betts and some salary relief in 21’-22’?
That’s crazy.
It’s thenSox who are trying to trade Betts to save themselves 10’s of millions in just fines.
No way Patino is included unless he’s about the only prospect included because this isn’t just about money for SD.
Betts is a superstar…..but 1 year of a superstar is still only worth so much….esp. if he isn’t assured to get you into the Playoffs.
Like the Padres.
I agree that proposal is an overpay, however there are no guarantees that Campusano or Patino are set for anything other than being good at the lower levels of the majors which comes w/ plenty of risk that they may not be contributing MLB players. The situation would be different if they were at AAA performing that well at there age but that is not the case. The Red Sox main concern about going over is the draft picks they loose by going over but that may not be an issue if they are stripped of there picks from the electronics scandal anyways. The Red Sox should be looking to move Betts for 2-3 low level prospets w/ upside to replace the picks they may loose in the next 2 drafts and try and resign Betts after the season.
mrpadre19, this should read Campusano and Patino COULD be All Stars, or they could get to the majors and suck. It won’t be the first time a highly touted prospect failed. What isn’t in question is that Betts IS top 3 in MLB. Basically, assuring a prospect will be a superstar is dumb.
Prospects are what teams absolutely NEED to be built with nowadays. The Sox used to just pay for established ml stars. That is why they are over the cap and desperate to get under it. A team can only afford 2-4 stars at $25-$35 million apiece annually. The Sox have Sale, Price, Martinez, Betts and a bunch of other guys making $15-$25 million. You will hit a wall that way and the Sox have. Most of their big money stars aren’t playing like stars anymore, and they have zero money for free agent replacements. The only replacements they can afford to pay are prospects, who are essentially free. Cheap talent is vital for Evey team in mlb. The Padres have it and that gives them the power.
Can the Padres walk away from Betts? Sure. Easy. They MAY be in the WC race for awhile but they won’t truly compete. However, Gore, Patino and Trammell will make their debuts and the Padres will be a lot closer to competing next year. Can the Sox walk away from the deal? Sure, and they will pay the luxury tax. They won’t be any better this year than they were last year because most of their guys are already past their prime and will just be a year older. Next year, they will be another year older and Betts will be gone. That is what is going to happen unless the Sox take less than they want. Realistically, that is what WILL happen. The Sox are declining. They are heading down. The Padres are on the way up.
What also isn’t in question is that Betts IS going to be a free agent in 1 year and that they Padres would have no chance of signing him as a FA
prospects are prospects. neither have shown to be elite types. very good prospects and i understand the want to keep them, but over valuing prospects is a trap too easy to fall into.
if you think you can realisticly go to the series by adding betts or even marte… a prospect or three a a couple years out who is not elite…. well its an easy choice go for that ring you might not have the chance again.
HA Ha keep Betts please Padres don’t want him, maybe for two second tier prospects and take Myers
Red Sox non-tender Betts before trading him for any package that includes Myers, unless the Padres take Price
it would take two good prospects for any team to take Myers for a bag of peanuts lol. He’s garbage and costs $68.5 mil.
Gore is awfully good, but there are no sure things. Major league hitters, even mediocre major league hitters, aren’t class A scrubs. He could also get injured.
That being said, I think he’s got the potential to be another Big Unit.
Totally agree Dan. All signs point to Gore as a top of the rotation piece. I suspect unless he destroys AA/AAA this year we’ll see him break camp in 2021.
Mrpadre, I’m not the insane one. Just because Campusano and Patino are ranked doesn’t make them all stars. If you look at any old top 100 list, you’ll see maybe 10 players on each list are all stars. So thinking every Padre prospect will become one is a bit naive. Realistically both should become major leaguers, and probably starters, right? Not really. Only about 40 players on any top 100 list become starters (not stopgap starters). So to think every Padre top prospect is going to be an All Star when maybe one of your top ten will be and only 4 will even be starters. There’s a reason every superstar for prospect deal fails for the team getting prospects. Look what the Marlins actually acquired for dealing back-to-back NL MVPs.
That deal is actually fair using the criteria on baseballtradevalues.com, which creates a surplus value from projected WAR vs projected salary. It’s not as crazy as you think.
Padre fan thinks every prospect is superstar. Espinoza was next Pedro Martinez. As long as Padres have best prospects they are happy
Exactly… most prospects, even highly ranked ones, don’t pan out… not sure where this theory started that most will… from what we can see urias and Mejia won’t become much of anything, and they were “untouchable” not long ago… morejon fell completely off the latest top 100… most probably need to recalibrate the value of prospects like most teams have already
Keep Betts please we’ll keep Myers, Gore, Patino and all the other top 50 prospects, good luck Sox, AJ do not make any stupid moves on this one yr rental
Have you seen that windup???? And lets see how he does in a full season of double-a before you declare him the next randy johnson.
Red sux have no leverage thanks to their dumb ownership spouting off about getting under the CBT threshold. Plus, no way should the Padres give up top prospects to maybe have a shot at making the WC game. But preller is an idiot so you never know
That is the wild card in all of this…Preller has repeatedly shown that he is very foolish. It’s amazing that he wasn’t fired a while ago, but I’m not a Padres fan so I just enjoy the comedy.
Exactly, when was the last time a wildcard team ever won anything? Forget that, they should horde all their prospects and make them untouchable.
They are called the Washington Nationals.
2019?
I view this as nothing more than verbal posturing to try and create a sense of demand that is less than likely. If the Padres had no money to go after a high dollar FA then what makes the Padres think anyone will believe they are going to take on Betts and Prices contract if the Red Sox are not taking Myers in the deal.
Sorry I guess I should’ve used a sarcasm font on the wildcard statement. Since it’s happened 7 times including last year.
Betts and Price for Padres Triple A team.
Done! All of the Padres talent is in AA. Of course the Sox still have to take Myers.
i think his power numbers will def take a dip at Petco
Everybody’s do. But Betts has the wheels to handle the huge outfield that others can’t.
I think the Red Sox only take Myers if they can include Price. Otherwise it’s just prospects for Betts. The Red Sox have no need for Myers.
Preller is desperate to save his job so that’s why I think he’s willing to “sell the farm” to get Mookie Betts.
I say Boston asks for something like this:
Myers, Grisham or Margot, Lucchesi or Quantrill, Campusano, and another top 10-15 prospect to Boston for Betts. They’d also have to include $10-15m in both 2021 & 2022 to pay down a chunk of Myers future earnings.
The only reason Boston would even consider taking on Myers is that while his salary is $20m for each of the Neal teams 3 years the average annual value (AAV) is only $13.8m the next 3 years. That $13.8m AAV is what MLB used when computing salaries toward the competitive balance tax. So trading Mookie and taking back Myers actually would save the Sox over $14m of the $20m that they are currently over the threshold.
The only reason Boston would even consider taking Myers and his $20m salty as part of the trade is that his contracts average annual value (AAV) is only $13.8m/year and that AAV is whats used in computing the competitive balance tax (CBT). So taking Myers back in a trade for Betts actually saves the Sox $14m instead of $7m this season to help get under the CBT threshold (the difference in each players actual salaries).
I also imagine if the Red Sox are going to make so say the Padres send the Red Sox $12m in both 2021 & 2022 to pay down Myers contract. His salary for CBT purposes in 2021-22 will only be $1.8m (remember his AAV is only $13.8m). So basically he will only cost the Red Sox what a backup infielder/outfielder makes.
Beside Myers I’d be asking for one of their young OF’s (Grisham, Margot, Cordero), one of their young pitchers (Luchessi, Quantrill), Campusano and another top 10-20 prospect.
I think the Red Sox have just as good a chance to sign Mookie next season regardless if he plays with the Sox this year or is traded to another team. He wants to test free agency and get paid. If the Red Sox are willing to write the biggest check I’d imagine he would happily come back in 2021.
The Red Sox should get the haul now while there is a desperate GM ready to sell the farm to land a star. Then circle back next season and bring Betts back home to Boston when he’s a free agent
A lot on him signing again in Boston might depend on the manager. I’m not a Cora fan but from what I read, he is. While money talks, a choice he doesn’t like also could affect his decision.
Udaman about the only one understanding the true situation and being realistic.
It is not world series or bust for Preller but his job is on the line if their is not vast improvement. As for Myers, it does not matter how you look at it 13.8 million of his salary goes against the luxary tax threshold. Usually overpays happen for star players that are underpaid and are not rentals unless a team views that one player as being the piece that puts them over the top. There are still way to many unknowns in the Padres lineup and rotation for them to think 1 year of Betts gets them to the WS. If the Padres get Betts it is to move Myers and they are not giving away Gore or Patino to move Myers contract.
Yea, I also see the deal as a variation of this. Maybe Myers, Margot, Austin Allen, Campusano and either Morejon or Weathers.
Austin Allen has already gone to the A’s in the Profar trade.
Allen was already traded for Profar. Stop posting if you don’t know what’s going on.
This is the most fair assessment I have seen so far. I think both sides would come to this agreement. Although the amount of money the Padres send is questionable for what they are comfortable with.
Hey Ryan Wheeler: I got your fair assessment right here— I’ll trade you Chula Vista CA for Boston MA. You’ll also need to send 60% of your new Chula Vista yearly taxes for 5 years to my San Diego Padres. Whether you’re comfortable with this or not doesn’t matter.
That’s crazy for a one yr rental LOL, AJ don’t make this trade
Absolutely right—leave the Mookie in Beantown. Pay the $27M you promised the guy, you cheap bums.
I don’t get the Padres wanting to get another superstar. I understand they’re trying to win and make the playoffs. But I don’t see the point is giving up prospects for one year of Betts. I doubt they’d sign betts to a long extension when they’re already paying Machado, hosmer
I do.. It’s 13 straight years of not making the playoffs and a desperate GM hoping it will save his job
Even if Boston just gifted Betts to SD with no return whatsoever, I still don’t see the Padres making the post season. The rotation is built for tomorrow, not today, so while the lineup might get you close, the starting staff is still in the process of figuring out the Major Leagues. Even the addition of Mike Trout AND Betts won’t solve that problem.
You have no idea what you’re talking about. The addition of Betts would make the Padres arguably the WC favorites. Look up projections before talking nonsense.
Yanks02026…..you can’t leave off the $20 mil the Padres save in 21’ and 22’ from moving Myers.
If Betts moves on they have the money to sign another outfielder.
They have another $20 mil or so coming off the books as well.
Plus they get the Comp. pick for Betts leaving.
I don’t want to lose Mookie at all, as I think Boston really should look at him as an all-time franchise player and try and make that as clear as possible as he enters free agency. That said, as much as we hate it, baseball is a business and they need a return on investment. I think that if they moved Betts for Patino/Campusano, and took on Myers with enough salary offset, that would be acceptable. Any other prospects down the line that they wanted to try and squeeze are on them, but those two would be huge. We’d obviously like Gore, but he’s as close to untouchable as can be.
You’re thinking Patino and Campusano, plus the Padres paying down Myers’ contract for 1 year of Betts is a reasonable trade? C’mon?
Pay your own bills, Boston. Draft, select, pay and develop your own prospects, you bums. See how long your superstar plays hard for you when your checks bounce.
Betts
Workman
Bogey
JBJ
Devers
Chavis
Vasquez
Benintendi
Looking at the current roster as I would say the Boston has done a much better job of developing their players then San Diego has
If the Padres are willing to eat a good chunk of Myers contract then a deal will likely not need to include Gore, Patino, or any big time prospects.
The original rumor said Wil Myers and controllable players. Perhaps players like Joey Lucchesi, Dinleson Lamet, Manny Margot, Franchy Cordero or others off the Mlb roster is what is on the table.
Sox need to fill holes as inexpensively as possible. The Sox are unlikely to score a haul even close to what the dodgers gave up for Machado in 2017. So if they really want to move Mookie they’re not going to re-stock the farm in trading him.
Eat a good chunk of this, Red Sox fan—Nuts.
No wonder the Padres suck year after year. One year they trade veterans for prospects. The next year they trade prospects for veterans. They don’t seem to have a plan. It seems to be all knee jerk reaction. Another example of a GM in baseball who doesn’t really have a clue.
Right because 2015 was last year
Doug Bird…another example of a fan not paying attention.
Preller went for it in 15’ and it didn’t work.
Then he rebuilt the farm in 3 years into the best system in the league.
Yeah…..he has no clue.
He’s 112 games under .500 as GM who has no clue?
Says the Mariner boy…
Sox would never swap Mookie and take on money unless Padres also took Price Contract. Six don’t want Myers they want to get under lux tax thresh. Heyman is terrible and wrong here.
Actually taking on Myers contract could be a brilliant move for the Sox depending on how much cash the Padres are willing to send back in 2021-2022. Yes he makes $20m but his average annual value (AAV) is only 13.8m and that is the figure that is used to compute the competitive balance tax (CBT).
So say the Padres offer the Red Sox $12 million in both 2021 and 2022 to take Myers off their hands.. His salary for CBT purposes would only be $1.8 million. About the cost of a back up catcher, infielder, or outfielder.
Boston doesn’t have any issues spending the money, what they are trying to avoid is having to pay a tax on the money they spend. Myers contract could help them do that
Myers is still paid $21M each of the next three year. Imagine being under the tax threshold but your payroll is tied up terribly for one player that has negative value. Not a good scenario.
If you read my above post you’ll see The Red Sox payroll wouldn’t be tied up at all if the Padres send $10-15m cask back to BOS in ‘21 & ‘22 for Myers (which has been reported they are more then willing to do).
The only year Myers salary would potentially hurt us is this season since SD won’t be sending any cash this year.
Imagine you are OVER the tax threshold and you are stuck with a pitcher who is not only being paid $32 million per year, but who actually counts that much against the cap, as opposed to Myers $13.8! That for only Joey Lucchesie value production. That is worse. MUCH worse.
Myers is a guy making $68.5m over the next 3 years who wouldn’t even get a major league contract this offseason if he were a free agent. No one wants him.
Kinda like you at the Baby Ball and Prom.
Say the RS pay $20M per year of Price’s contract and $21M of Betts’ due and you might be on to something.
Betts is a top 5 player. Prospects are prospects. Ship Myers n 2 kids. The weather n beaches are much better then Boston n NY and Manny n Hosmer should convince him to battle LA n SF for a few years. It’s a no brained.
Your comment is no brained. Please learn to write.
“Battle LA n SF for a few years” on a one year contract? You sure “no brained” that one.
The argument against giving up top prospects for Mookie because he’s only a one-year rental is invalidated if the Sox take on most/all of Myers’ contract, which runs for two more years beyond 2020. The only conceivable reason for Boston to do that would be to get better prospects than they otherwise could, and a deal starting with Patino or even Gore is hardly a crazy ask in such a scenario.
Those two are untouchable per Padres FO
So, you want years of a young Sophia Loren and years of a young Kim Novak for six months of wnookie, plus I pay $27M? What a bozo.
Trading Betts for mid D.C. le of pack prospects makes zero sense and won’t happen. Goal # 1 is reduce payroll to get under $208M threshold. Taking back Myers doesn’t do that UNLESS they take Price and that’s a different story
Goal #2 is rebuild farm system and again trading him now for a batch of maybes makes ZERO sense. Can do that at deadline to a team that needs that one player to put them over the top and get them some cap relief. Mookie is not an issue. He plays hard everyday in a tough market. Keep him and see what happens. You trade him now and they will be playing to empty seats at Fenway and lower ratings on NESN and that is not an option with this ownership group
Betts is the second best player in baseball and has had the 2nd highest WAR over the past 5 years. Adding him to the Padres makes them a legitimate contender. The Dodgers are vulnerable having lost Ryu and HIll.
If the Sox are trading Betts, they should be looking at a package built around Patino and Campusano, Camusano is blocked by Mejia. The Sox should fill out the package with Quantrill, Owen Miller and and a high upside arm like Michel Baez. This is because Wil Myers is coming to Boston as part of the package. Its going to make the deal cost more.
Padres fans will scream that this is too heavy, but is it really? Betts, Pham and Margot immediately form a much better outfield, offensively and defensively. Myers has been a dud and Betts is a MVP-type. Trading Patino, Miller and Campusano aren’t hurting the MLB roster to start 2020. Baez and Quantrill are the only guys who were likely to break camp with SD.
Boston would benefit by saving 13-14 million on their payroll. Miller could eventually take over 2nd base. Campusano would challenge Vazquez at catcher, Patino could slot into the rotation as a cheaper replacement if/when the Sox move Price. Baez can add to the rotation or the pen. Myers gets a year to see if he bounces back. If not, the Sox have shown a willingness to cut guys and I’m guessing they would after 2020 if he doesn’t rebound.
SD becomes an immediate contender in the NL West. If it doesn’t work, the Padres can easily move Betts at the deadline to recoup the prospects they gave up and they’ve already moved Myers.
The Dodgers aren’t “vulnerable,” but if they were, it would not be because they let Ryu and Hill walk. Both are heavily injury-prone and the Dodgers have options to replace them, beginning with May, Urias and Gonsolin, but not ending there. Hell, I like Hill, but he wasn’t even a factor last season. The Dodgers will likely win the division with ease again next season. Padres fans like to pretend they will be contenders pretty much every year, but they are never even close. The future may look bright, but their problem is that it is always the future, never the present. The fact that Preller is still their gm is comical. I’m sure they will find a way to stay dwelling at or near the bottom.
Hey 22Leo: “The Dodgers aren’t vulnerable”, they’re Kuma Sutra bendable in WS. “The Dodgers will likely win the division with ease again next season” but surely will lose the WS (if they make it that far) with a lot of pain. (Dodgers fan like to pretend they will be contenders pretty much every year for the WS but they always finish short). They’ve even got the local City Council and county Supervisors begging the Commish for WS winner trophies.
It IS too heavy. It doesn’t put them over the Dodgers 2020 record. What happens in 2021?
You are talking about a MVP level core of Tatis Betts and Machado. Plus Paddack and Gore, who probably is untouchable, going into a playoff series. That’s a deal you make if you can. Wildcard or not no one wants to face that.
Ryan Wheeler…I agree Patino won’t be in the deal but in 21’ we would have the money to resign Betts or any other FA we want.
Myers/Olivera/Yates/Profar/Kinsler/ all coming off the books.
That’s almost $50 mil.
@mrpadre19 They’d also have the money to sign Betts if they don’t trade for him. What would you rather have: Betts and prospects or just Betts?
Dodgers have better young players, more money to spend long term and proven player development. Padres are not catching them any time soon.
Hey amk3510: Padres have no WS trophy and Dodgers have no WS trophy—we’ve caught them.
Mrpadre, it’s going to be at a cost of having 5 other guys you will need to replace. So far these big all star contracts have not worked out for the Padres. And it’s Far from guaranteed Mookie resigns here
NO, no and no. Trade the Mook before July 31 for practically nothing to the Dudgers (cause that’s how they roll). They’re not winning the World Series either (that also is how they roll). My Padres are in the discussion only cause we’re trying to drive up the price for our competitors.
Anyone dealing prospects for Betts are being suckered by the Red Sox. Mookie Betts is a FA. He has not come this far to pass up that chance. He will open for bidding in October. The Padres are not winning the West, even with Betts. Even if they did that one year of potential glory is not worth surrendering guys they have as part of the future.
If the Red Sox aren’t re-signing Betts they are in a weak position. They are just looking for a sucker team to bail them out.
Prospects often bust. The prospect hugging really need to go away. How many 100 top prospects over the last 10 years has gone on to produce anything close to Betts? Maybe 2-3 guys?
The Dodgers success over the past many seasons is largely due to building up a great farm and declining to trade most of their talented prospects. Granted, they took on a lot of big contracts initially, when Guggenheim bought the organization, in order to fix what McCourt had broken and bridge the gap until their prospects began to mature, but that was temporary and since then it has been holding onto the prospects that has allowed them to be successful without going nuts with spending. Quite frankly, I wish Friedman would be willing to flex Guggenheim’s financial muscles a bit in free agency to put them over the hump and win a WS, but he seems more interested in being viewed as a shrewd businessman than winning a WS and is content just to get the team to the playoffs. The Dodgers are just one example, but they are a good one regarding the benefit of competently evaluating young talent and knowing when to move prospects and when to hold on to them.
The Dodgers biggest strength has also been somewhat their biggest weakness. There has been an unwillingness to stretch for the starter, reliever or bat to put them over the top. They are great at building a perennial contender but at some point you have to cash in a few chips. The Dodgers rotation going to 2020 is somewhat weaker than years past. Besides Buehler and Kershaw, there are no sure things. Padres bullpen is better. Dodgers lineup needs another bat.
The Dodgers biggest weakness is Friedman. He won’t spend big on any free agents to get them over the hump. He also is terrible when it comes to the bullpen. He has stated multiple times that he does not believe in investing much on relief pitchers, then he throws out stupid contracts like the one he gave Joe Kelly. Quite frankly, the one thing Friedman has done well is hold on to prospects which were already in place before the Dodgers hired him. The bottom line is that the Dodgers have the money to improve via free agency. They do not need to trade their prospects. I am certainly happy the Dodgers didn’t give in to the Nationals’ asking price of Bellinger for Dozier a few years ago, for example.
The Dodgers tried shipping a ton of prospects to Baltimore a few years.ago for six weeks of Manny Machado. He tanked and signed with the Padres a few months later. Those “over the top “ moves are risky.
Hence their WS success…
That’s what I mean. Fans get super excited about their homegrown guys, but how many of those guys become good, solid regulars? Betts is a legitimate star going into his prime.
The issue isn’t about the fact that Betts is a proven star, it’s about the fact that he would almost certainly be a one-year rental and likely would not be enough to even get the Padres into the Wild Card game.
How about the top 25 prospects? that’s a different story, Padres have fiour in the top 25 or close to it
Stockpiling prospects is great, but they don’t always work out. Moving a big package for Betts hardly strips the farm and if it allows them to move Myers, that’s a huge plus. Replacing Myers with Betts is a huge, division altering deal.
If the Padres don’t contend they can flip Betts at the deadline and get back solid prospects again.
It would only alter the division regarding who finishes at the bottom versus the middle. I am not a Padres fan, so I would love for them to make a deal to acquire Betts. Objectively, however, it would not make them a contender and therefore would not be a smart move for what would almost certainly be a one-year rental. If they want to give him a monster contract as a free agent, they should just wait a year. Even if he is traded he will become a free agent and probably take the biggest contract on the table. Acquiring him through trade before then won’t change that.
metsie1 why do the Padres have to win the West or this is a bad idea?
If I remember correctly the World Champs didn’t win their Division just last year.
don’do it, pads! betts in petco will be good but not great!
Can Bloom get this done? Has more time passes it gets worse
This is such click bait and makes absolutely no sense.
It’s Patino plus if you want Mookie and the Red Sox are taking back that disastrous Myers contract period end of story. That’s how Bloom should play it. I think he is there is no way Boston trades Mookie for scraps and takes back that ridiculous Myers contract. It just doesn’t even come close to making sense.
I think that’s partially why this has gone public. Padres were trying to low-ball the Sox. Myers contract is really bad. If the Sox take that back they should start with Patino and Campusano plus three addtional guys. Do the Padres really want Myers on the books for three more years?
I agree with you if you want Boston to take on that ridiculous Myers contract it Costs Patino plus without a doubt.
It’s funny how Sox fans think that Myers contract is an absolute abortion that will require multiple TOP prospects to take on yet Price’s contract, which is $30 million MORE, will get them prospects back.
No one thinks that Price is getting the Red Sox prospects back on his own. But he is at least a useful pitcher. Not $32m/yr useful but still useful. Myers, on the other hand, wouldn’t get a major league contract if he were a FA right now.
Ha. You’d think no one would. You’d think.
Sure Price is useful. So is Joey Lucchesie. They had essentially the same numbers last year, only Joey’s were a little better and he pitched 55 more innings. That means that Myers contract with Lucchesie added is equal total WAR value to Price, except that the 2 of them are $30 million cheaper.
So, if the Sox don’t have to add prospects to get rid of Price, then the Padres only have to add Lucchesie to make him just as valuable. They could trade the 2 of them with no prospects. Why not? Again, they give equal value to Price but are $30 million cheaper and Lucchesie has 1 additional year of control.
Price isn’t in this discussion but Myers is and if it Betts for Myers then it’s going to cost you Patino and probably Campusano plus it’s just the way it is and Padres fans better get used to it if it’s simply a Betts trade.
Javia at least Price is somewhat valuable He is a 2-3 War pitcher. Myers was negative War last year he is an absolute albatross.
If it’s Betts for Myers and prospects without the Padres also taking Price the prospect cost is going to make Padres fans cry.
You don’t read very well do you Bruin1012? Price is a 2 WAR pitcher? So is Lucchesie. So the value difference between Price and Myers is Joey Lucchesie. Since Price is $30 million more expensive, that begs a question: Would you rather have Price for $32 million per year, or Myers at $22.5 million and Lucchesie at $9.5 million? It’s the same value! Actually, Myers and Lucchesie is better value because Lucchesie is essentially free.
David Price’s contract is every bit the albatross that Myers is.
No javia it is not Price is at least useful Myers is a negative war player so no you are wrong in your assumption.
So, you think the Padres ought to pay the RS to find a place in their dugout for our trash, pay them $45M for 3 years for that, and ALSO send them Miss Universe and Miss America for the favor? Wake up, loser.
Yes we’ll take Myers for three more yrs. and keep our top five prospects, and make the playoffs in 2021 for years to come
I think the Pirates should be interested in taking Myers back in a deal for Marte. Gives them probably a higher prospect(s) and a direct replacement for Bell if they also decide to move him. Or they could keep Bell and move Polanco, who has been injury prone but is still young enough that teams could still believe in his potential, allowing them to play Myers in right.
Mookie is playing for Boston this year so stop the nonsense
Yes for one more year, that’s it then Betts is gone to either the Yankees or Jays
There seems to be a lot of smoke around, so there might actually be a fire here. I figure if San Diego gets Betts and sends Myers back, that is about $75 million in excess value they need to send back to Boston. A package I think makes sense for both teams would be Betts for Myers, Campusano, Trammell, Munoz and 2 of Morejon/Baez/Quantrill. This is based on Boston paying the entire Myers contract. If San Diego sends cash back, adjust the pitchers depending on how much cash they send.
boston is not taking Myers without Padres taking Price
When there is smoke regarding MLB trade rumors, it is usually just smoke, especially late in the off-season when there isn’t much going on.
This is a more likely scenario for value. Myers contract increases what SD is sending the other way. I’d start with Patino and Campusano. I’d add Baez, Quantrill and Owen MIller at minimum.
You know who should be dealing for the Betts/Price combo is the Twins.
Rosario and 2 of the Twins non-elite but still top-100 prospects for Betts and Price. Something like Balazovic and Larnach.
Twins get a year of significantly upgraded OF production plus a good though no longer elite pitcher and BoSox get a very solid replacement OF, a very good pitching prospect, and a very good OF prospect (to replace Rosario post-2021), and most importantly massive salary relief.
I don’t think Betts is going anywhere this off-season, but if a team does want to trade for him, it should definitely be one that has a legitimate chance to compete for the WS this year, like the Twins. It certainly is not the Padres.
You both have good points, and as much as I dislike David Price, the Yankees could make that trade, eat Price’s contract, put him as a fifth starter, and use Mookie in center to replace Hicks. They would have leverage and the ability to trade a couple guys for a decent return, for example, Josh Hader. Not implying this will happen, just exploring the hypotheticals with youse guys (in NY speak). I’m leaning toward Betts not being traded at all before opening day and obviously the likelihood of a trade with the Yankees is nil.
Red Sox are not trading Mookie to the Yankees.
Bruin – if you read my last sentence, that’s what it says, but you’re right (or I’m right) nonetheless.
Luke you’re not wrong. It would be a short-sighted upgrade for the Twins. Problem is that is just not how they operate. They are one of the most fiscally responsible clubs out there and value young cheap contracts more than most. If fact, keeping their young players is how they got to where they are right now. Betts has a 0.00% chance of signing a long-term deal with Minnesota so losing any prospects that could someday impact the big club is not a deal they would be too interested in making.
Campusano,Weathers, Trammell, Abrams, Baez, MYERS
For
Mookie, Price
Abrams isn’t going anywhere. That kid is going to be really good in.a few years.
Go study up on the relative $value$ of a MLB prospect, and then come back and try again. You’re expecting the Padres to eat $55.5M, PLUS send their top #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, and an athletic veteran MLB CF/LF/1B, for Betts 6 WAR, and a sharply diminished, under performing Price?
Your basically expecting SD to take on the liability of Price, AND pay Boston for taking their own top prospects, too? You ought to demand the Padres send Paddack and Tatis, Jr, while they’re at it, to complete your fantasy wish list. The Padres, fortunately, can say “no” if you’re on Boston’s negotiating team.
Did they legalize pot in Massachusetts recently?
So many comments without any actual analysis.
Betts makes $27M in 2020 and steamer projects him for 6.5 WAR (I prefer ZiPS but the 2020 Boston ZiPS isnt out yet). Teams projected for 77+ wins paid free agents projected for 2+ WAR about $9M per win over the past three off-seasons so we will use that figure to compute Betts’ projected surplus value in 2020. 6.5 WAR * 9 is $58.5M, minus his $27M salary and we get ~$30M surplus.
Myers makes $60M rest of his contract. Steamer thinks Myers will be 0.4 WAR in 600 PA while ZiPS is far more optimistic, projecting for 1.75 WAR in 600 PA. Fair to say Steamer thinks Myers will effectively be worth 0 WAR for the rest of his contract but it’s impossible to know what ZiPS projects for Myers 2021 and 2022. If it thinks he will be 1.75 WAR in 2020, for the sake of simplicity and conservativeness I think 1.25 WAR and 1.0 WAR is fair for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Teams paid players projected for 0-2 WAR at a $6.5M per win rate the past three off-seasons. With that in mind Myers has a surplus value of a range (given we used two separate projections) of -$60M to -$35M.
So if the Padres were to acquire Betts and trade Myers with no money exchanging hands, we might expect the Padres to trade $65-$90 million in value. Fortunately FanGraphs has updated prospect valuation so we can figure out a worthy package.
An example on the low end would be one 55 position and one 50 pitching prospect, for example Trammell plus Weathers/Morejon/Baez. An example on the high end would be one 55 position, one 50 position, and one 50 pitching, for example Trammell plus Potts plus Weathers/Morejon/Baez.
What is worth more, two years of Marte or one year of Betts?
Worth would be relative to the team acquiring Betts or Marte. In the Padres case Marte probably since they are more likely contenders in 2021 rather than next year. but there are many intangibles teams also use to derive worth so it is hard to say.
Boston GM Chaim Bloom was with Tampa Bay when they rid themselves of Myers. And when I say rid I mean rid. He knows that guy as well as anyone. After years with the Rays Bloom has probably learned a trick or two about maximizing a trade. See the Chris Archer deal. Highly doubtful he would forget everything he learned with Tampa Bay and not go after at least one of the top two Padres prospects for one of the best players in the game even if he is just a rental. He can always wait until the deadline and with all the teams still in contention because of the Wild Card hold out for a king’s ransom and get it. The Padres team President Ron Fowler publicly said they have to win this year or “heads will roll starting with mine.” So they have to ask themselves do they want to have Betts for the whole season where he could help advance them in the standings from the get go or have him as a two month rental and hope they get into the post season
If Betts is not bringing back a kings ransom now odds are he won’t at the deadline either unless an injury happens on 1 of the 4 top teams contending for the playoffs. To give up a kings ransom a team needs to be that one piece away, time will tell which team that may be but there is a lot that has to go right for the Padres to get there before they give up the farm for Betts.
The problem with your logic is the Red Sox will be one of those teams hanging by a thread for a wildcard spot so they can’ttrade Betts. Then they fall out of contention. He walks you get a comp pick but lose it and all the over cap penalty money. + you don’t have any prospects because you didnt trade sooner and the MLB took your picks away for cheating. That’s a bright future.
@kenphelps
Boston seems to be in the same situation with Betts as Baltimore was in with Machado. Baltimore held on until mid season. Would you call their return for Machado “a kings ransom?”
BA was borderline negligent not trading Machado in the off-season, if not the previous July.. Same with TO and Donaldson. That said, the RS are still contenders. If we had a farm system, I’d hold onto him.
If the Pirates take on Myers contract in a Marte trade they would be taking on around 40 million more in negative value while Marte is a 3 war player and that adds about 25 million in surplus value. Another area the Padres may need to address is 2B just incase Profar does not pan out. The Pirates should take on Myers and all his contract along with Campusano, Weathers, Olivares, Marcano & the Padres #34 competitive balance draft pick for Marte + either Kevin Kramer to platoon w/ Profar and a bull pen arm ( Feliz, Kela, Crrick).
that wouldnt be near enough with all of myers contract.
add in a good portion of myers salary then camp and one of the better pitchers and thats a good startin point. obviously not gore.
i like the idea of kramer but reall probably want fewer pieces moving around. but if kramer can get cronnensorth (sp?) in the deal… worth it.
plz click! – love, Jon Heyman
“Love?” You are smothering me and I need my space.
Acquiring an MVP caliber position player on a 1 year contract where you will receive a compensation round pick a the end is very, very expensive proposition. That said, Myers has even more negative value than Betts does positive value.
Baseballtradevalues shows Betts as +50 and Myers as -55.
The top Padres’ prospect, Gore, is valued at 82 and Campusano at 25.
That would make sense if real life was a video game. I fail to see how 1 year of Betts at 28 million and a # 75 draft pick are worth Gore & Campusano.
So you are saying that Gore has more than 1.5 times the value of Betts?
SD: Betts
Boston: Myers, Campusano, Margot, Quantrill, Arias, $10-20M
Boston get closer to where they want to be on payroll, Margot (returning to his original organization) slots right into the OF, Quantrill possible rotation piece right away based on his 2nd half last season, Campusano and Arias are both coming into their own lately and could turn into 2 long term pieces.
Padres are out from under Myers contract, and wind up saving between $16-26M depending on where in the $10-20M range they send to Boston.
That has the structure of something that might actually be on the table. I don’t think Boston gets $20M, and even $10M might be tough, based on the quality of prospects the Padres are sending their way..
Myers: Has posted a 3WAR year; 1B/LF/CF (and almost any position other than 3B).. He’s not a zero value major leaguer. He’s getting paid $22M a year, and is probably worth $8-$10M, with some realistic upside.
Quantrill: He’s MLB rotation ready right now. His ceiling is still TBD, but probably somewhere in the #3-4 range.
Arias: High upside; unproven prospect, but his stock is up.
Margot: At this point, I think he’s an outstanding 4th OF, or maybe a starting/platoon player. His CF defense is elite.
Campu: He’s the gem of this trade. Two way catcher. Single A league MVP. Awesome numbers (I think he was second with his bat, but not far from #1). I think he’s up by the end of 2021, and will never go back down again.
I think with that prospect ask for Boston, the Padres would expect Boston to eat all of Myers contract, which rumor has it, is the hang up. Myers will cost Boston $40M net,, but his 2020 AAV is $14M against Boston’s $22.5M liability, solving most of their lux tax issues.. Top prospects and MLB level ballplayers will cost Boston money..
There aren’t 28 teams stepping up to take Mookie off Boston’s hand in exchange for prospects. It’ll be either the Padres or the Dodgers, or else Boston will eat the 2020 lux tax penalty of 50% plus -10 slots in their 1st round draft pick. The Dodgers are a $BILLION income producing team, annually, and could write a check to buy the entire Red Sox roster. If they want Mookie, they’re gonna get Mookie, but Boston still won’t get the prospects from the LAD that they’d get from the Padres.
Boston needs to replenish their very weak farm and are in huge problems coming up with the stealing signs situation. Pads should eat half of Myers contract and I think this is a done deal. Several prospects/ready mlb players coming back, none of which should be any of their top 5 (as one report stated they were not), They have plenty of second level prospects that they need to do something with soon, like Lawson, Miller, Oliveras etc. Boston is the one in desperation mode, trying to get under the tax threshold and with the coming hefty punishment taking most likely a bunch of draft picks for a while. I think based on these facts, the one report by Acee is the most accurate on the situation, What’s holding this is now is how much the Padres are willing to eat from Myers contract. If the Sox want Campusano or anyone of their top 5, I would just say thank you and move on if I were the Pads.
It looks like the Padres are OK dealing Campusano. The Sox want the Padres to take some Myers’ money. Maybe the Sox could send the Padres Betts and Rusney Castillo (owed $14mill, but not against the tax) for Myers, Campusano, Quantrill, and Cronenworth.
As a Padres fan, I am NOT sold on Marte! I have read too many reports that Marte is a corner OF at this point of his career. If he’s not ‘Steve Finley’ in CF, for what they want the Pirates can KEEP him. The Padres already have too many OF’s that can’t play CF. Petco Park has a huge CF and RF.
I don’t think Marte is much of a CF, but the Padres do have Tommy Pham, Franchy Cordero and Manny Margot, all of whom can play CF…
I like how you ignore the fact that Marte would be the best OFer on the Padres no matter where he plays while hitting near .300 w/ 20hrs and 20 stolen bases for the next 2 years at half the going rate. Then, if you look at Marte’s statcast report you would see that his bad numbers were from poor defense around him and poor positioning Hurdle had him play in the OF.
Tommy Pham is going to hit 20-HR and 20-SB. His career BA is 10 pts lower yes, but his OBP in 32 pts higher. Pham is just as good and may be better than Marte. That being said, I do like Marte.
If the Padres would take Price, the Red Sox would likely take the entire Myers’ contract. Betts and Price for Myers, Campusano, Cronenworth, Quantrill and Weathers. Price and Myers have roughly equal trade value. That leaves Campusano, Quantrill, Cronenworth, and Weathers for Betts.
If the Padres take Price, they are taking on an additional $30 million in obligations over and above what they lose by getting rid of Myers. Betts is worth $27 million in surplus value. Which means if the Padres take Price the Sox get nothing back.
Wait, Sox fans always say that Price still has value, so fine. Sox can have Joey Lucchesie to replace the 2 WAR they will be losing by trading Price. Their numbers were very similar last year, except Lucchesie’s were a bit better and he if far less of an injury risk and can be counted on for more innings. They can even have his extra year of control for free!
THAT trade works out to almost exactly even.
Ketch, do you even bother to think about what you write?
5 comments above, you suggested Betts and Castillo($14 million) for Myers, Campusano, Cronenworth and Quantrill. Yet here you suggest that the Padres take Price instead of Castillo, take on an additional $80 million in salary obligations, and add Weathers to the price?
The only way AJ Preller should consider trading Patino to the Red Sox is if they also take WIl Myers and his ENTIRE contract. If Boston wants the Padres #2 Prospect and one of the best pitching prospects in baseball that’s the price. Personally, I don’t like this idea….if it were 2021 and the Pitching Staff had one more ace I’d say go for it. For just one season of Mookie?…too risky.
Nobody in SD’s giving up a significant piece for one year of Betts plus housecleaning. Just not happening.
If I’m the Red Sox I do what I can to get this deal DONE! Betts isn’t coming back in 2021 and if he is… trading him now would have 0 impact on that anyway — he’s going to go to FA and most likely take the most $ period. As for the Sox — dealing him now for 2+ strong prospects AND potentially getting them close enough to be able to dip below the luxury tax line to ‘reset’ the penalties is a HUGE boost for all future years not including 2020. If they don’t trade him AND don’t get under tax line they are going to wind up getting nothing but a 5th round compensation pick for him (because of luxury tax penalties) and they will have their draft pick docked 10 spots, lose international bonus pool money and more. Taking back Myers is the perfect situation where financially you’re making a huge difference for the Padres because they’re actually concerned about the $20+M owed to him /year for the next 3 years. But the Red Sox don’t actually care about the $ it’s all about the luxury tax calculations and because of the AAV of Myers contract it only counts towards $13.3M for the Sox. It’s a perfect way to help SD rid itself of $65M+ while the Sox wind up with massive luxury tax savings as a result! And let’s be honest — they desperately NEED some prospects. The long term outlook for the Sox making this deal vs not making it are incredible, and for anyone who’s actually looking past the “but I love Mookie Betts and how could the Sox trade such a generational talent” the benefits of doing so are crystal clear. The Red Sox would really benefit immensely if they can pull of a deal with the Padres for 2+ Top prospects (doesn’t have to be SD’s top 2/3 — their farm is so deep guys from 4-10 would all be top 3 for the Sox – give or take) and again the Long Term outlook for them if they make the trade vs if they don’t is enormous. Bloom… get this done!
That’s not negotiating out of a position of strength. If you are a boston fan you will not be happy with the return if you take this approach. He’s still a superstar that should net a high end prospect back.
Which of the 28 other teams have stepped up, and responded to your argument, of top prospects for 1 year plus $27M of Mookie? None that I know of?
Mookie’s getting paid like a free agent. If Betts maybe had two years remaining on his contract, at a team friendly $5M or $10M like most players still under control, then maybe you’re right. However, you’re asking other teams to pay three times, i.e. two top prospects (Boston’s original ask, according to rumor), plus $27M, for one year of Betts.
It’s not surprising that no team has jumped at that ask, yet.
Jeff, that makes perfect sense what you just described. Fans need to go beyond sentimental feelings and look at the logical side of this. For the Sox they have to make the trade for several key reasons, The Padres actually have the upper hand here, the time is now if the Sox want to get something for Betts
This post also shows no real understanding of the tiered tax penalties.
Unless the sox add even more payroll they will NOT breach the highest level of the tax. And without breaching the highest level of the tax, there is NO draft pick slot dropping 10 places penalty.
The 10 spot draft penalty also ONLY applies to the first round pick, NOT every pick in the draft.
If under 208m, the comp pick for mookie and potentially jdm would be after 2nd rd.
If the sox are over 208m mookies compensation will be 4th rd, period. Sox could have a 300m payroll and mookies comp pick would be 4th rd. So who knows where this 5th round idea comes from.
Others in this thread seem to inflate the penalty cost to be higher than it is as well.
As far as the “tax penalties” it’s also applied to the tiered levels of overage. Payroll under first threshold not taxed at all. ZERO.
You pay the lowest penalty percentage only on the salary between 1st and 2nd threshold. Then you pay the middle percentage penalty on salary between 2nd and 3rd (top) threshhold. Finally you pay top rate for anything over the top threshhold.
The penalty percentage varies based on year of being above the tax, but, thats it.
If you’re not above top threshhold there is no draft pick implications, and your amateur draft bonus pool is unchanged.
You DO take a hit on your international bonus pool as a repeat offender, but, nothing debilitating.
Betts lost his value because the Red Sox failed to work out an extension.
My guess is Betts asked to be traded to a West Coast team.
Talks with the Red Sox are over.
Take what you can get, after the season it’s a lot less
That’s just it the Red Sox don’t have to take what they can get they still control him for the year and the team should still be very competitive this year so no you don’t just take what you can get.
The Red Sox should absolutely keep Betts. Of course, the luxury tax rate goes up for every year you are over, and this will be their 3rd year. But who cares? It’s not our money.
They could have more than 1 suitor at the trade deadline if Betts regains his MVP form! I would wait for the best deal to surface instead of “taking what they can get”
Can anyone name a top 30 mlb prospect that was traded for a one year rental? The closest I can remember is when the Dodgers traded to acquire Machado. They sent Diaz who was top 100 with a few other meh prospects.
Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman?
Jimthegoat, THAT is all that needs to be said to show why this trade will never happen.
That assumes that the Cubs would not make that trade again. I’ll leave it to the Cubs fans, but I am guessing that they’d make that trade every time.. If I hadn’t won in a 100 years, I’d make that trade.
The difference there is the Cubs were one piece away which was a lock down closer and they had not won a WS in 108 yrs. The Padres are in neither situation and should only be taking Betts if Myers is going back in the deal if they want a top 100 prospect.
Lee, Sizemore & Philips for Colon
Weaver & Kelly come close.
Cargo+ for Holliday
Andrus & Salty for Tex was pretty close
Syndergaard for Dickey
Do NOT trade patino. take 10-15 mil of Myers salary and get this done.
Trading for Betts would make more sense for a team that is a player away. The Padres are not a player away. They need to build a young core with their farm system and then they can trade prospects to fill holes.
No team is just one player away, not even the Yankees and they just signed Cole. Everyone thinks they are, but they’re not.
No team is 1 player away Moneyballer? So you don’t think that if the Astros had say Kirby Yates or Josh Hader that the World Series might have turned out differently?
Not much to go on in this article.
I’ll wait for more information.
If the Mets get any inkling that Cespedes might actually take the field to start the season, there is no room for Marte. McNeil and Davis have to be in that lineup and they aren’t going to platoon them. Conforto has to be in center if Cespedes decides he wants to play.
All that being said, I don’t think the Mets have any urgency to add Marte until Cespedes is out of the picture. The only other logical thing would be some kind of three team transaction where the Mets get Marte only if a third team takes Cespedes (American League) with prospects going to the Pirates.
Until Cespedes shows something in Spring Training action, the Mets are stuck with him in left field, keeping Conforto to center and McNeil in right. The only other option would be to trade JD Davis to open a spot for McNeil at third to allow Conforto to go to right. Mets shouldn’t be in any rush to move Davis unless they can unload Cespedes AND get another outfielder.
Cespedes will probably be the Mets 26th man, if he’s healthy enough to play. His fielding won’t surpass JD Davis’s, and even though Davis was lucky on balls he put in play, Cespedes probably won’t outhit him by much, either.
The Mets turning the 26th spot on the roster into their DH and pinch hitter de luxe role (the old Rusty Staub spot in his 2nd go-round with the Mets) for Cespedes until they can deal him is probably their best move.
It’s not as if they have a utility guy worth DFAing Cespedes for. Let him pinch hit, let him DH when they play the AL, and at worst if there are no takers play him occasionally in LF. If he’s not effective, they can eventually cut him if they need his spot. It’s not a big deal, and it’s not as if at age 34 he’s going to do anything of note.
As for Marte, even if Cespedes breaks a leg tomorrow, he’d be a bad pickup. Say the asking price is Nimmo. Marte’s salary is 10m higher.
Nimmo + 10m >>>> Marte.
For 10m the Mets could have gotten a superb bullpen arm. To deal Nimmo for Marte now would make their offseason even more incoherent than it has been.
My gut says if Boston trades Betts the return won’t be as massive as most think. First, they don’t have leverage in this situation. Second, he’ll be on a one year deal with a slim to none chance of signing an extension. Third, anything can happen that would affect the value of Betts on a one year deal like regression or injury. Weighing any and all possible negatives here, they don’t really out weigh the positives. The Sox can ask for the moon but it doesn’t mean they’ll get it. Just saying the “fair” price will be less than what most think
Plus does Betts alone push the Padres past the other teams in the NL not named Dodgers? They’d likely only be competing for a wild card spot at best. Not sure 1 guy gets them to that level.
Heater, of course not. If they trade for Betts, have him for a season, and then see him sign with some other team…Preller should be fired and fired fast! Moves like that DESTROY a baseball franchise!
I’m not saying this will happen. But if they trade for Betts and then win the World Series, do you think losing Betts to FA after one year would be that big of a deal for the Padres?
Betts pushes the Padres into the playoffs.
Heater totally agree one RF even Betts will more than likely bring 85W’s to the Padres for 2020 not good enough for even a wild card, stop this trade talk and let’s get ST in action soon.
And to think you dropped 300MM on Machado could’ve had Nolan
They got machado for just $ – arenado requires half their farm system as well as $
First off the Sox aren’t shopping betts, they are listening to offers. If the padres want betts it will take two of their top 5 prospects, quantril and mangot. The Red Sox will not take Myers. Otherwise the Red Sox will just keep betts to compete in 2020, try to resign him and take the compensatory pick if they do not. A pick the padres could also get if they do trade for betts and could be used to recoup a lost prospect. These prospects are no sure thing. Look back at any team’s top five prospects from several years ago. Usually 2 or 3 wash out.
Padre fan can’t comprehend that falling in love with every prospect is their mo
The prospects that trading for Betts would cost are much closer to sure things than that comp pick.
Fine line there between shopping and listening to offers….pretty much the same in this case….the Red Sox are highly motivated in doing 2 things; getting under the lux tax if possible as decreed by their ownership, and dumping Price’s contract if at all possible…..Betts has already said he will be testing the waters of free agency not matter what….which means the Sox will not get a home town discount and if he’s too expensive now in arb., which he is for their tastes which is why their trying to move him now, then they will not be successful when he’s free unless they pony up the top offer for his services…so its get something back for him now, or lose him and get a pick in return which may not amount to anything. Guess you’re not plugged into the AL East chatter.
Whatever value he might be to a club like the Padres can be debated to death, but this is pretty likely….if the Sox can get salary relief (moving Price) tied into a deal for Betts, considering they don’t think they are competing for the title this year, they will probably take the offer.
Those top five prospects are a sure thing of the Padres, baseball analysis say they are the real deal, so why trade them for a rental. The Padres have the leverage, not the Sox. If AJ is smart he’ll make the Sox pay or no trade.
Blake swihart was said to be the real deal as well, a can’t miss soon to be perennial allstar.
How about refsnyder?
We could go on and on. Absent a couple seasons in mlb, nothing is guaranteed
If prospects are such a crapshoot why do you want them so badly?
Sure, these prospects could end up being worthless. Or Gore could become Clayton Kershaw. Patino could become Pedro Martinez. Trammell could become Kenny Lofton. If just one of these guys you are asking for works out, well then, 6 years of them give you 6 times the value of 1 year of Betts.
Betts may be worth 7-8 WAR this year. To equal that value, the Sox only need to get 1 prospect who averages 1.25 WAR a year for the next 6 years. Does anyone on Earth predict Gore, Patino, Abrams or Campusano to be worth that little? Yet you try to demand multiple prospects of that level? Does anyone else see a problem with that?
@Javia- I’ll respond.
1) I agree that it’s stupid some posters both get hung up on farm placement rankings as what’s it needed in a return rather than th piece, AND, agree it’s unrealistic to expect multiple of the pads top 5 coming back.
I’ve never called for either.
Now, why WOULD someone want prospects if they’re so uncertain? It’s the upside. You don’t pay exactly what someone could, or should, put up. You pay significantly less than that – it’s why Sale netted more than just Moncada, or Kopech, even though both looked strong and we’re very well regarded. (It wasn’t DD stupidity, it’s how it’s done. Also for a boston twist cite to hanley to Miami in the beckett deal) the discount makes up for the risk.
Now, in the other thread you said my thought on a trade had potential to work around.
To recap, something similar to:
BOS sends Mookie, JBJ, Bobby Dalbec. BOS sends enough $, a couple mllion, with jbj to cover his prorated cost to release before salary is guaranteed.
SD sends myers with say 10-12m in 2020, BUT NOTHING in 2021-beyond.
SD sends Morejon, Head, Marcano, Olivares, Weathers for prospects, and Margot as a mlb ready piece.
Boston gets under the tax in 2020.
SD doesn’t have a good corner IF prospect. Might be nice to have a power bat to PH, give injury depth with hosmer clogging things up.
Sticking point? SD would see a salary bump this year. They could trade JBJ, or, release him before his salary becomes guaranteed and only pay a tiny percentage covered by boston. It’s their choice to play or trade him instead.
Why so many prospects? Myers is still a very bad deal. While other teams may get by sticking him in a corner OF, boston has the tricky monster in left you need some ability to run down. The bounces, and the hardest RF in mlb basically requiring cf level ability to handle. He’s not up for it, and, boston has blue chip 1b power hitting prospect (casas) well on his way. Then there’s entering his 30s, very poor showing last year, and the fact that you could get a similarly productive 1b for about 3-5m on the open market, except that one wouldn’t be off a negative war year.
Interesting stuff. Betts is one of the very few players who all by himself might push a .500 team to the postseason.
He’s had 10 and 11 win seasons, and projects to about 8 wins for 2020.
Say he doesn’t put the Padres over the luxury tax threshold. His surplus value just based on $$$ / WAR around the league is about 72m or (8WAR * $9m) – 27m salary = $45m.
Then you’ve got the added value of whatever a pennant race and getting to the postseason is worth. Whatever that sums to, it’s a lot.
Very roughly speaking, does getting to the postseason add 100m to the Padres, and does Betts give them a 50% chance of making the postseason? If so, that’s another 50m. Is Padre ownership thinking of selling in the next few years? If so, a postseason appearance adds even more value to the franchise.
Oh, and did I mention Betts is a lot of fun to watch? GET IT DONE!!!
Betts pushes the Padres into the playoffs without a doubt.
So what you’re saying is that Betts should push the Red Sox into the playoffs should they keep him right?
And if at the trade deadline the Red Sox aren’t “in the race” then why would they keep him?
Stop
Another angle on this is that the SDP increased attendance by 228k last year, and a player like Betts might increase that by another 228k. That’s maybe another $20M in ticket revenue and related, plus whatever it does for their ratings.
Assuming, as I do, that SD is a .500 team as constructed, Betts might be enough to move them into the playoffs, which is again additional revenue.
Why would the Red Sox want Myers?
If I owned the Red Sox I’d probably prefer to ride it out with Price.
There would be no need to trade Betts in a deal for Myers.
Unless they got something else “big”.
Price for Myers would be more than enough.
So many comments, so many inaccurate assumptions, and this article is a day old, so I may be wasting my time here anyway.
There are many ways this trade will fail. There are a few ways, it could be a win/win.
1) If Myers isn’t considered an asset to Boston, this deal is dead. The Padres aren’t sending prospects for a one year rental of Mookie, and if you’ve noticed, 28 other teams aren’t either. Either the Padres move Myers, or the deal is dead. Myers value isn’t a “5th outfielder”. He’s not a -0.3 WAR ballplayer. I won’t extend this comment by arguing about Myers performance, it’s variable, that’s all I’ll say. But, if that’s Boston sees Myers as a straight DFA, fringgy 5th outfielder, they wouldn’t be talking with the Padres.
2) There were reports that Boston agreed that the top three Padres prospects aren’t in their ask. If that’s false, then the deal is dead. Gore and Patino are as likely as any pair of pitching prospects to be TOR starters by 2021. You don’t trade them away. The Padres won’t. Boston wouldn’t. CJ Abrams looks like he may be as good as Tatis, an impact SS or CF. Again, for a one year rental, you don’t trade him. NO team trades a Tatis, or an Abrams.. On the other hand, if Boston fans ignore the rest of the Padres very strong farm system, then no Mookie trade gets done, with the Padres, or the Dodgers, or anyone else. This deal is and always was, about prospects.
3) Myer’s AAV is about $14M, and Boston is about $22M over the CBT/Lux tax limit. That’s about an $8M to $9M difference for 2020. If the Padres ship that cash, it solves Boston’s CBT problem. The cost to them is $45.5M (years 2021, 2022 of Myers contract), which in part, is the value of the Padres MLB ready ballplayers and prospects coming back. Remember, Mookie isn’t a 6 WAR ballplayer versus Myers 0WAR. Myers has put up a 3 WAR year. He’s been a decent 1B man. He’s covered CF as well as LF. If Boston wants to solve the CBT problem, AND restock the farm, they make this deal. The hang up will be cash, and teams can get creative with cash, prospects, PTBNL, etc., to make a deal like this. It’s also too much in the Padres interest, IMHO, to allow $9M to kill this deal. If the Padres send more prospects, then Boston has to move another $9M in salary. It’s a whole lot easier moving $9M, than $23M, two months from opening day.
4) Most Boston fans have no idea who’s available to them from the very young Padres roster, and fully stocked farm system. From MLB ready starters, high leverage relievers, outfielders like Grisham, Naylor, to high level prospects like catcher Campusano, who is a two way catcher, and last year Single A league MVP. Check out Ty France’s minor league stats last year; they were historic. (He hasn’t been spectacular in his MLB call up, but that’s a limited sample size.) If on the other hand, Boston fans want their franchise to tell San Diego to stuff it, cause Myers isn’t worth Betts, they are asking the Red Sox with it’s #30 farm system, and soon-to-lose draft penalties identical to Houston over the next two years (i.e. Boston is a two time offender, guys), to just stuff the Red Sox’s future as well. There are good reasons for Boston to consider this trade. Or, maybe a trade with the Dodgers, if they step up with the prospects Boston wants. However, either way, it’s in the long term best interest of the Red Sox to restock their farm now using Mookie, and avoid the luxury tax penalties (50%, plus -10 slots in their 1st draft pick).
5) Price is a wild card. My gut instinct is that the Padres don’t believe he can answer the bell over the next three years, to earn his contract. If the Padres took on both Price and Betts, significant money will be coming back from Boston to cover his salary. LOL, that or maybe the Padres ship Hosmer back in the deal (just kidding). If AJ Preller (Pads GM) believes Price can be at least a reliable #2 or #3 level starter, I think he’d consider a deal to include Price. However, from what I’ve heard, there’s been no actual Padres interest in Price, just speculation by baseball analysts. I think that if Boston adds Price as a requirement, it kills any deal.
Well said OldSalt, and very diplomatic as well.
Myers IS a straight DFA candidate. I know you are a Padres fan and therefore delusional but if he were a free agent this offseason he wouldn’t get a major league contract. If they try to include Myers and aren’t willing to either take back Price or part with Gore or Patiño the trade won’t happen.
It wasn’t more than a month or so ago when Boston fans were telling people on mlbtr just how many good prospects it would take to get David Price. Guess what? With $28.5 million more on his contract than Myers, THEY HAVE THE SAME VALUE!!! But somehow when the shoe is on the other foot everything changes. Is that just a Homer thing?
Well thought out comment. I just hope my pads know what they’re doing
Well Old Salt you must be a Padres fan. It’s very simple if the Red Sox are taking on Myers contract then it is going to cost Patino plus and that’s just the way it is.
Betts has tremendous surplus value even for 1 year and Myers, let’s be real, would probably get a 1 year 3-5 million offer or possibly a minor league contract offer if he was a free agent. So he is tremendously overvalued. These are just facts and the way it works so in order for the Red Sox to take on that contract and send Betts to San Diego it starts with Patino and probably Campusano plus or its no deal. Maybe your GM thinks that he can take advantage of a new GM and steal Betts for Myers and garbage but my guess is no not gonna happen.
Boston is plenty fine with starting the season with Betts and seeing how the season goes. I think Preller should be the desperate one here. He is gone if the Padres don’t play bette this year he actually really needs Betts.
Clearly has an overexaggerated idea of Wil Myers’ value. MIght be one of the accounts AJ Preller uses to comment on this site.
@oldsalt-
Just to point out, umm… yes, a team does trade a tatis.
TATIS WAS ACQUIRED BY TRADE FROM CHICAGO.
So there’s that.
Then you say this isn’t about mookie being a 6 war player and myers being negative war, and extol the supposed virtues myers.
Newsflash: if you cherry-pick myers best ever career 3 war year, making him a 3+war player, then mookie is every bit an 11+ war player having put up 10 in 2016 and 11 in 2018. PLUS, mookie is only entering his prime implying there may be more in the tank, could it be 13war? 15war? More in a single season?
That’s no more ridiculous than saying myers is gonna post 3war/year going forward.
Boston remaining engaged is due diligence. No “sign” that they view myers as having legitimate value.
I’d imagine it went like this:
Preller – hiya bloomy, we’re still interested in mookie.
Bloom – well hi there aj, what’s the offer?
Preller – well, I’d like to build a trade on volume overy quantity, and, I’ll even throw in both sets of medicals.
Bloom – maybe, tell me more.
Preller – and you’ve got to take myers, I don’t have the payroll to fit mookies contract, and I know you guys aren’t sending cash with him because of the tax.
Bloom – well, I’m not saying no, but we’ve got to get creative because I need a whole lot more in return to take that contract back.
Annnnd… here we are
Well said… and by FAR, the wisest comments on this thread!!!
@OldSalt, very nicely said! Probably the wisest comments I’ve heard in regards to the SD & BOS trade discussions!
Hey Boston: Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock,,,,,
Man, I started scrolling down, then I fell asleep. When I woke up I was still scrolling.
It’s doesn’t matter If the Padres trade for Betts, Marte or any other player for that matter, but if Myers is part of the deal, the Padres have to get Myers salary from -$68.5 to 0 In prospect value, cash or both to begin.
Any example would be Myers, Grisham, Mejia, and Morejon. That gets the Padres back to even. To trade for Marte, they need to add prospects like Arias and Miller. I’m not a Pirates fan, so I don’t have a clue of their needs. I’m basing it strictly on player value.
Red Sox, got a great offer here. No, I’m not looking for Mookie. We are the Pirates, let’s be real for a moment. Any chance we can offer our 5 best prospects for Brock Holt, two Duckboats (preferably working, but if not, I can set it in the Allegheny River and charge these bums per hour to board them), and a small replica of Paul Revere statue. I’m a huge history guy. I love to ignore it and repeat it like groundhog’s day! Think it over. Hit me up on my beeper.
-Nob