The Phillies have discussed an extension with soon-to-be free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, but the two sides paused those talks last month as a result of the coronavirus. The team still seems to have the inside track on locking up Realmuto, for whom it paid a pretty penny in a February 2019 trade with the National League East rival Marlins, but what if a worst-case scenario occurs? What if the Phillies are unsuccessful in trying to prevent the two-time All-Star from exiting via the open market next offseason?
[RELATED: Extension Candidate – J.T. Realmuto]
The Phillies wouldn’t be well-equipped to go on without Realmuto in the near term. They only have two other catchers – Andrew Knapp and Deivy Grullon – on their 40-man roster right now. Knapp has been a replacement-level player across 579 plate appearances since he debuted in 2017. Grullon’s still just a 24-year-old who did produce nice numbers in the high minors from 2018-19, but he has barely played in the majors and isn’t regarded as a high-end prospect.
The Phillies have at least a couple of other promising young catchers in Rafael Marchan (MLB.com’s seventh-ranked prospect for the organization) and Rodolfo Duran (No. 19), but it seems unrealistic to expect either of them or Grullon to take Realmuto’s place from the get-go in the event that he departs next winter.
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd laid out earlier this month, there may be other regulars at the position who hit the market soon. Robinson Chirinos, James McCann, Yadier Molina (though he and the Cardinals are motivated to stick together) and former Phillie Wilson Ramos could become free agents. So could Jason Castro, Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, among others. There are some options there who at least might make for decent stopgaps, and it’s anyone’s guess who might end up on the trade market, but with no known stars set to become available behind the plate, it should be all the more imperative for the Phillies to lock up their current catcher.
Realmuto, who turned 29 last month, continued to make a case for a sizable contract during his first year in Philadelphia. He paced all catchers in fWAR (5.7) for the second year in a row and slashed .275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs in 593 plate appearances and 145 games. Behind the plate, he gunned down a league-leading 47 percent of would-be base stealers (MLB average was 26 percent) and finished fourth in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
Between Miami and Philly, Realmuto has shown he’s a well-rounded, star-caliber backstop. As a result, there’s a chance he’ll follow backstops like Joe Mauer and Buster Posey en route to a $100MM-plus guarantee. No matter how much he earns, though, it’s clear the Phillies would have a difficult time replacing Realmuto.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Replace him with JT Realmuto
Unpopular Opinion: The Phillies should trade JT Realmuto the history of 30+ year old catchers who have had knee surgery isn’t favourable get what you can and try to move forward
Trade him straight up for Mookie Betts. Because the season wont be played anyway.
Yes it will. If the amount of people it takes to play a baseball game can’t come togethere we are done for.
The obliviousness is remarkable.
It’s not just getting 40k people in a stadium. It’s getting 40k mostly DIFFERENT people basically every day in 30 stadiums around the country. And that’s just baseball. Consider every other event, all other sports, concerts, shows, etc.
You have one asymptomatic infected person come in contact with thousands of people and you’re looking at well into the millions infected just from that one person.
Now you take those millions and apply a modest 2-3% mortality rate and you have tens of thousands dead. Just because you and many like you couldn’t live without your live sports.
Reopening the country will be fine until there is another resurgence. Could be in a week, could be next fall. But there will be another resurgence (probably several instances) before we can get the majority of the country vaccinated.
This virus and disease aren’t going anywhere so hunker down and get comfortable buttercup.
End rant.
You’re entite rant was for nothing lol. Obviously there won’t be fans for a long time. Im talking about on the field… Where the only people close togethere are the batter, catcher and umpire + whatever baserunners. You clearly like to get triggered. Empty stadium games are happening dude.
Being as you’re a Phillies fan, the season not being played is the best case scenario for you, isn’t it?
get lost
Lost, yes, what the Phillies did a lot of last year.
They won just as much…literally.
Cross that bridge when you get there
JT is real good but Posey and Mauer were elite 85 mil tops for me
Posey’s contract is looking pretty terrible right now, and he isn’t even all that old.
What a dope trade by Philly. Real stupid moves the past few years. Arrielia, Harper, Segura and now JT. The trade made no sense, traded their young catcher who was good already. With JT you get a little better but the catcher they traded was under contract for many years and for cheap and for just one year of JT if the season is cancelled but if not still a bonehead move. . They also gave a top pitcher prospect who also, under contract for a ton of years and for peanuts. Total moronic trade
Captain Obvious!
Alfaro was terrible in his full year behind the plate in Philly. He couldn’t frame pitches well, he couldn’t block the ball well, and his strikeout rate was absurd.
The only thing Alfaro has is a great arm. He’s not better than JTR in any single category.
The Phillies made a great trade for him if he gets locked up long term and stupid if they let him walk because of having to give up Sixto Sanchez.
I suspect the Phillies will give him a high AAV with a shorter term, possibly some option years and incentives at the end. I just don’t see Middleton letting him leave Philly and he can’t afford to.
“He’s not better than JTR in any single category.”
What about salary and controllability?
Exactly goat! People are confused and don’t have a sense of value. If I have a player that is a 300 hitter but I pay him a million a year and I have him for 5 years and there is a 310 hitter that is in contract for two years at over 10 mil each year and you get a clown saying the 319 hitter is better….no chit! A better player but money and years involved and then the the 300 hitter is way better. It is called rookie level fans
“The Phillies made a great trade for him if he gets locked up long term and stupid if they let him walk because of having to give up Sixto Sanchez.”
Actually if they lock him up and it isn’t at a discounted rate that will make the trade even more stupid because it will mean they overpaid for him twice.
“I suspect the Phillies will give him a high AAV with a shorter term, possibly some option years and incentives at the end.”
Nope. Players want guaranteed money. Not options and incentives. See Manny Machado.
“I just don’t see Middleton letting him leave Philly and he can’t afford to.”
It’s really not his prerogative to “let” or “not let” JT do anything.
No goat! I am positive and guarantee that they will not pay JT. We all have to remember that they used all their money up with Harper. Yes…. they still have money but it’s not enough to give JT 150+ million. If they do sign JT we would see the Phillies Paying 2 players almost 500 million and still can’t win a world series because they have a roster that can’t beat the Dodgers and then over in the AL you got Yankees and Astros and when these team come back to the pack you get other teams in their place as powerhouse clubs. Philly will be strapped and can’t build around two players making almost 500 mil combined so they won’t be getting other stars on contracts because there is no more money. Makes no sense and quite moronic to poor out cash into JT and Harper. Lastly goat! JT wants to test the market because Phillies burned him already in arbitration because they got cheap on him and Philly ain’t going to outbid teams with ,”stupid money too”
Explain in detail how Alfaro was good already with statistics to back it up. Without making a judgment call on the trade itself, it’s probably not a good idea to start with that statement as a significant leg of your argument.
Agreed. Alfaro’s got upside, but he isn’t as good (and may never be) as Realmuto on either side of the ball.
Jeff Mathis would be a great replacement for offensive production
Sarcasm Alert!
If they replaced him with Mike Zunino, then the production would really be offensive.
BAZINGA!
they need to sign bengie molina
Andrew Knizner will almost be available when Molina Franchise Icons his way into one more contract. Carson Kelly did pretty well when he was shipped out and the Cardinals have another catcher behind Knizner who appears to be ready in 2 seasons.
I wanted the Braves to acquire him from Miami in the worst possible way. Getting a guy who can hit, defend, and run from the catcher position while under control is a once-in-a-blue-moon missed opportunity.
That being said, I wouldn’t hedge a big contract his way. He’s elite right , but there’s too much risk in that position to invest 80+ million as he ages.
I know guys like Yadi, Posey, and Mauer got big deals as catcher, but it can’t be understated that all of those guys were/are with their original organization. Meaning those teams had YEARS of medical history, opinions from their own doctors, trainers, scouts saw up hand the kind of teammate and player he was and everything else they were. There’s no doubt in my mind that the years of that access to the player made the choice to invest in the person, the player, and their aging body played a big part in the comfortability of those deals. Each is also a face of the franchise type of guy and there’s no doubt those teams were able to enter the contract with a plan in place.
Signing a catcher to a big time deal without all of that information available is not smart. (i.e. Brian McCann and Russell Martin contracts)
Almost all catchers age terribly thus signing them to long term deals proves foolish.
Personally I don’t see the values of catchers rising anytime soon either.
1. Robot umps will eliminate the pitch framing “stats”
2. The running game is at an all time low.
3. Teams value hitting catchers as a way to add value at a position that historically doesn’t offer much. Yet, with the DH coming I see teams allocating funds and effort into that role and not on a catcher.
Ultimately, teams like the Giants and Orioles both who have elite hitting catchers should have them lessen their wear by trying out the infield corners.
The running game is at an all-time low because pitchers do a much better job holding runners and they deliver the baseball quicker than they did 40 years ago. Plus the catchers have figured out a better way to get the ball out of their glove quicker and more efficient than they did back then. Catchers have played a role in shutting down running games.
The rest of your points were valid though. Can’t disagree.
Also, teams value outs more now than they did. They’re less willing to give up an out and kill an inning with a caught stealing. Instead, keep the runners in place and expect the hitter to deliver.
Pitchers don’t hold runners any better than they did. The caught stealing rate is significantly lower now than it was in the years before the move to advanced metrics.
I s that due to base stealing being a lost art form in today’s game and being a lesser part of the game I wonder?
Less guys stealing and the ones that are stealing bases are the Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton’s of the world?
There’s some truth to what you’re saying. I noticed that after I season I looked at the best catchers throwing runners out and ironically they’re catching pitchers that hold runners on well and are quick to the plate. it was funny one year when Molina stats were down throwing runner’s out and their announcer during a game was referring to how he was catching a staff that were poor at holding runners on and slow to the plate. Basically you need a great arm quick release and catch pitchers who slow the running game down and then people talk about Johnny Bench comparisons.
Teams know if you can’t swipe a bag 3/4 of the time you aren’t helping the team. Not many players can do it. So nobody runs except the elite speedsters.
He is Lucroy all over. I remember every team wanted him. He went to Texas and on and on. Maybe had a decent season or two and that was it.
Looking like a real good trade for the Marlins. The Phils don’t have a replacement and the fans would riot if they let him sign elsewhere. Realmuto is laughing all the way to the bank. Back end of the deal will suck but gotta do it.
JTR isn’t worth 20-25M/year and that money can be better spent on pitching, since the Phillies barely have any.
he absolutely worth that. he was easily the best player on the team last year. catchers like him dont come around often, and the athleticism alone which should allow him to stay behind thr plate longer is generational.
I mean, maybe on a 3-4 year deal. But not 5+ years. McCann, Martin, Posey, etc all flopped after their contracts. The history of long term catcher deals stink, and the Phillies have 2 good starters, 1 good reliever, and whatever you’re expecting Spencer Howard to turn into.
I’m guessing he gets 5-125 extension when it’s all said and done
I think you might forget, one of the unsung heros of the Phillies run was Carlos Ruiz. Sure he couldn’t really hit a lick (unless it REALLY counted), but he had solid blocking, outstanding pitch framing, and called games like the best of them.
When that rotation of 2011 barely shakes you off, you’re good. Carlos was so underrated outside of Philly for how good he really was.
I could agree with this if the Phillies knew how to evaluate pitchers. Recent drafts and current minor leaguers not named Spencer Howard indicate that very well.
5/100 that’s what he will sign with the Phillies.
praying Abrahan Gutierrez is really the real deal and prospect evaluators have just forgot about him.
If Realmuto leaves, the trade of Alfaro would have been absolutely pointless. After years of standing up for Matt Klentak I will finally jump on the “fire Klentak” bandwagon if Realmuto departs in free agency. You’d be sitting with Alfaro (with additional years of development) in hand and Sixto ripe and ready to roll into service. I am praying they have a gentleman’s agreement to let JT determine his market value in the open with Middleton ready to add years or bucks to justify staying.
@suddendepth They didn’t have to trade for JT first if their plan was to just match the highest offer and tack on more years/bucks.
JT is a great catcher. But if your goal is a World Series… look at most recent World Series catchers.
Yan Gomes
Vasquez
Brian McCann
World Series winners have recently had catchers that are defense first and offer very little offense. Teams make up the offensive difference in other areas or with pinch hitters and depth at catcher. I think with the expanded roster, we will see more of this.
I love JT and think the world of his abilities. That being said, he’s already caught 5 full seasons and will be in his 30s during this new contract. Catching is like dog-years, except its about 3 for 1. Expect a quick, injury laden, decline.
JT is 29 years old, hit 25 home runs and hit 275, he is to be paid 10 million this year and is a free agent in 2021.
Alfaro is 26 hit 18 homers but had 108 at bats fewer then JT and he also hits in a lousy hitting team with no protection in the order. He hit 262 and was paid only 500 thousand and will be a free agent in 2024. Phillies traded these backstops and even threw in a stud pitching prospect. Philly fan blow smoke down someone else’s buns ok. Ain’t buying your spill on how it was a good trade for Philly. Don’t be foolish! If the season is cancelled the Marlins have Alfaro for three more years and a stud rotation arm for 4 years Philly has no basically giving away two players with a total of 7 years control compared to zero years of control and zero players to show for the trade in 2021.
Pay the man!
I disagree That Marchan can’t replace JT. Marchan has a gun for an arm and was impressive behind the plate. Joe G was very pleased. The aspect that bothers me is his height. I think he’s 5’8″. This may not be an issue since blocking the plate has all but disappeared.
JT can also play first. If Rhys doesn’t bounce back year, the Phils can try to trade Rhys and move JT to 1st.