It has been almost exactly one full year since J.T. Realmuto became a member of the Phillies, and needless to say, the Phils didn’t swing that trade with the intention of only keeping Realmuto for two seasons. There has been talk of a potential contract extension between the two sides for several months, with mutual interest between both Realmuto and the club in a long-term commitment.
First things first, however, the All-Star catcher and the team are headed towards an arbitration hearing after a rather large difference in their submitted salary figures. The Phillies offered Realmuto $10MM, while the backstop and his camp are looking for $12.4MM, in part out of a desire to move the line forward for future catchers going through the arb process.
It’s possible that this hearing could be avoided altogether if a Realmuto extension includes the 2020 season, though the Phillies could prefer to deal with Realmuto’s 2020 salary as a separate matter for luxury tax purposes. Since every player’s tax number is determined by the average annual value of their contact, an extension that covers the 2020 season would put Realmuto’s value for the coming year at a much higher total than $10MM or $12.4MM, and thus would put the Phillies much closer to the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. As per Roster Resource, the Phillies are already close to the line with a projected tax number of roughly $204.6MM.
As NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury noted back in November, a Realmuto extension that didn’t begin until the 2021 season would give the Phillies some extra breathing room under the tax limit. Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and (if a club option isn’t exercised) David Robertson are all scheduled for free agency, which removes $45MM in salary obligations off the books.
If Realmuto’s extension doesn’t begin until 2021, however, that also changes the earning framework. Realmuto turns 29 in March, so an extension would therefore begin with his age-30 season, knocking one year of his prime out of the contractual conversation.
That said, being out of his 20’s won’t stop Realmuto from landing one of the richest contracts ever awarded to a catcher. The Oklahoma native has delivered four straight years of outstanding play, hitting .283/.335/.464 with 74 home runs over 2248 plate appearances for the Marlins and Phillies since the start of the 2016 season. Defensively, Realmuto has been an above-average catcher over that stretch, and his glovework took a big step forward in 2019, as Baseball Prospectus ranked him at or near the top of the list in framing, blocking, and throwing out baserunners. (Realmuto won his first career Gold Glove for his efforts.)
Health-wise, there isn’t too much concern for Realmuto after six MLB seasons. While he underwent right meniscus surgery in September, the procedure was considered to be more of a general cleanup, and nothing that would keep Realmuto from missing any time this season or even in Spring Training. His only injured list appearance was a three-week stint in April 2018 due to a back contusion, and both the Marlins and Phillies have sporadically played Realmuto at first base to help keep him fresh while still keeping his bat in the lineup.
Yasmani Grandal‘s four-year, $73MM free agent deal with the White Sox from November provides a fresh comparable for a Realmuto extension, and gives Realmuto’s agents at CAA Sports a clear floor for negotiations. Grandal received his deal entering his age-31 season, so an easy case could be made for Realmuto to receive at least a five-year, $91.25MM pact.
As we saw with Realmuto’s arbitration case, he has an eye towards helping catchers of the future, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him seek an extension that hits a couple of notable benchmarks — a deal that would make him the third catcher to both earn a contract worth $100MM or more (after Joe Mauer and Buster Posey) and also earn $20MM in average annual value (after Mauer and Yadier Molina). Something as simple as a five-year, $100MM extension would check both of those boxes, though I could see Realmuto seeking a bit more in order to top Molina’s $20MM AAV.
Matching or surpassing the $23MM average annual value of Mauer’s contract probably isn’t feasible, as that record-setting eight-year/$184MM deal began with Mauer’s age-28 season. Offering a higher AAV over a shorter timeframe has some advantages for Philadelphia, as the team wouldn’t be paying Realmuto too deep into his mid-30’s, though the Phillies might prefer to spread Realmuto’s value out to lessen his luxury tax hit.
Could a six-year deal be palatable for the Phillies? Realmuto has been a durable performer, as mentioned earlier, and he could be transitioned into a first base role as he approaches his mid-30’s. Depending on what the Phillies decide to do with Rhys Hoskins in terms of a future extension, Realmuto could even be a candidate to take over first base after the 2023 season, which is Hoskins’ final year of team control. Philadelphia has a few interesting but non-elite catching prospects (Rafael Marchan, Deivy Grullon, Rodolfo Duran) who could be groomed as Realmuto’s eventual backup or successor, or perhaps even turned into trade chips if Realmuto ends up having the catcher position on lockdown for first half of the decade.
Six years could end up being a bridge too far for the Phillies, though Realmuto could have some leverage in pointing out the weakness of the projected 2020-21 free agent catching market. While some decent backstops will be available, none are anywhere near Realmuto’s level, and his departure would leave Philadelphia back at square one behind the plate. For a Phillies team that plans to become a consistent contender and has already shown its willingness to spend, letting arguably the sport’s best catcher walk away in free agency would seem like a curious move, especially given the significant package of young talent (Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart) the Phils gave up to get Realmuto from Miami in the first place.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
I say 5 years 95-110 million for Realmuto , they gotta keep him long term after giving up Sanchez & Alfaro for him.
No freakin’ way.
Realmuto can get seven for $175 next winter. Almost every big money team needs him.
Red Sox, Yankees (they’ll be done with Sanchez), Angels, other NL Least teams, then the Cardinals. Giants will want Realmuto too if for no other reason than their manager has a poster of him on his wall.
I think they will have a long term extension for him after opening day, for the price they paid to get him, they gotta sign him an extension, he’s the best catcher in baseball and imo he was the team mvp last year.
I don’t think as many teams would be willing to go 7 years for a catcher in a league that doesn’t yet have a DH.
I think 5 years is a fair offer , then 95-140 mill.
Who is a faster runner, Realmuto or George Springer?
Yeah. I’m thinking 5 135ish gets it done.
7/$175MM? No way he gets that on the open market at age 30. More than twice Grandal? Not a chance.
I could get Realmuto that. Scott Boras could get him at least $190 million.
You all are delusional. Look at the top catcher contracts in MLB history. You may be surprised. No one is doing that high for JT
NYY maybe, but Boston has vazquez inked through 2022 on a tremendous deal paying no more than 7m during any of the years for a superb defensive catcher who has learned to hit for not only average, but with power and he’s just 29 also.
$175,000,000? No way.
7/$175 ($175.00 to clarify)
is more likely than 7/$175,000,000
Realmuto is going to be VERY popular on the open market next year, and he knows it. There just aren’t that many top catchers with a legitimate two way skill set out there.
Why shouldn’t he cash in? The Phillies knew they only had a few years of team control when they traded for him.
It’s a must for them to resign him , they will have the money to sign him once opening day comes. he’s worth it. A line up of him harper + hoskins for the next 5-6 years depending on how long they lock him up for.
Is it really a must for Philly to sign him? Or should it be HE “must” sign a REASONABLE deal w Philly? The Phillies SHOULD be competitive for the foreseeable future. How many MILLIONS of dollars are enough?
He won’t hit the open market. Phillies will extend him or heads will roll.
Who is going to remove John Middleton’s head?
Middleton better step in for that to offer that extension. I think the phillies fans will want Klentak fired if he’s not extended.
You would be correct about that.
They pretty much fleeced the Marlins on this. Alfaro is roughly average. Sixto is yet to be determined. Realmuto is the top catcher in baseball all around. Write him a blank check. Salaries are ridiculous anyway these days. Even with Harper/Hoskins/Realmuto last year they still weren’t as good as the Braves. Expect the same this year.
Alfaro is better than average. He needs to work on his bat, but his defense is solid and he has the 8th best poptime in all of baseball. Of course Realmuto has the best, but the Marlins were going to lose J.T. to free agency eventually anyway. I think the Marlins came out winners here, especially if the Phillies lose Realmuto.
Sixto and Alfaro were the cream of the Phillies young controllable talent. That’s why the Phillies _could not_ trade for any impact deadline talent in 2019. They already dealt it for Realmuto.
That deal will not age well for the Phillies.
Espically if Sixto Sanchez turns out to be the real deal. Thats why it is a must for them to give him a long term extension.
How did they “fleece” the Marlins? The Marlins took their leaguewide top 30 prospect, making a division rival weaker in the process as well as taking their first string catcher (who isn’t as good as JTR but comes with more control) and a lottery ticket in Will Stewart and Philly now has to either pay through the nose to sign him (which they could have done without trading for him) or lose him for a draft pick.
Unless it’s on the cheap extending Realmuto won’t make the trade better. it will make it worse. Because it will mean they overpaid for him twice. Once in prospects to acquire him and then once again in $ to extend him.
Not sure you need to use the term “arguably” with best catcher here.. Its the one position in MLB there is little doubt.
Been that way since his last year with the Fish IMO
It’s always “arguably” because there’s always some fool who wants to argue. J.T. is the best.
There is definitely an argument to be made as to who is the best catcher in baseball.
Grandal has been a better hitter than JT and is also rated higher by BP catcher defense metrics, so objectively there is a strong argument to say Grandal is the best catcher in MLB.
Molina had a down year last year, but if you take his career average, it is better than Realmuto’s year last year. Molina has started at least 100 games 15 years in a row. Realmuto has done it 5. The way catching is going, you will see fewer teams with one main catcher. Teams are looking for a very good backup to play close to 60 games behind the plate. Just as we’ve seen fewer pitchers reach 200 innings, we will see fewer catchers reach 100 games.
There’s an argument for a lot of catchers; Garver, Kelly, Contreras, Sanchez and Grandal all come to mind when thinking of elite catchers to compare to Realmuto. If someone questioned his talent, I would think they’re a very poor baseball mind.
But, it’s not as cut and dry as who the best centerfielder is right now.
Indeed…everyone knows it’s Billy Hamilton.
The Phillies owe Odubel Herrera money but isn’t he off their payroll tax line now that he’s off the 40 man roster? Odubel has gone off to join Rusney Castillo?
Herrera still counts towards the Phillies’ luxury tax. The “Rusney Castillo loophole” was eliminated in the current collective bargaining agreement.
Why is the tax based on the 40 man roster? There is a big gap between the 26 and the 40 price.
He is almost in a driver seat type of position. They gave a lot to acquire him and now he can play hardball to get the best deal possible. Or he can walk or get traded before that happens.
Realmuto is also in that position because the majority of the Phillies fan base thinks he’s better than Harper.
Imo Realmuto was the team mvp , had a career year and won a silver slugger & gold glove.
Do they really believe Realmuto is better than Harper and if they do, is it because he had a higher batting average, which is the second most overrated statistic in baseball, just behind WAR?
It’s not because of average. It’s because Realmuto plays a more valuable position. He’s calling games, throwing runners out, and making terrific defensive plays.
Dismissive Rhetorical Questions are overrated.
If someone used batting average or WAR to claim Realmuto is better than Harper they’re at least attempting to make an argument.
He is the best player in the Phillies. More because the drop off if he left is tremendous. You can get a 30 hr outfielder pretty easily right now. There’s about 5 better than average catchers right now.
7yr 165mil?
Could very well be. It’s a tough position to staff in the first place, and JT is clearly the best. I hope Philly ownership has a lot of that silly money left.
The folks writing for this site have published – recently – that Mookie Betts is worth a $400 million contract and have now published numerous columns claiming Realmuto is worth as little as $95 million.
All of you – Tim the owner, Mark, Todd, Steve etc – need to Skype together and figure out how you got here.
You’ve lost the plot.
I think he’s worth 95-140 million. He’s the best catcher in baseball. The phillies front office need to take care of it. Klentak will be dumb not to give him a long term extension.
In defense of this site (not that they need it), catchers historically haven’t had the earning power of other positions. They just don’t tend to age well due to the demands of the tools of ignorance.
You’re choosing to ignore a couple of things….
One — Betts is the superior player; a bonafide superstar. While Realmuto is arguably the best catcher in the game today, he isn’t in the same class as Mookie as a player.
Second — Betts just turned 27 in Oct, making him nearly two years younger than JT. And there’s what rememberthecoop stated about catchers not being able to command as big of deals due to the additional risk.
Third — resulting from a combination of the reasons above, Mookie Betts will be able to command a much longer deal than Realmuto, so the sum of his contract will be greater regardless.
I’m hoping he moves to the AL next year.
If I were a Braves fan I’d want him to move to Atlanta.
this Is truly a rumor. Value of elite catchers just went up. Why wouldn’t he jump on the up tick and market and sign a deal ?? Bc Phillies can’t offer due to financial restrictions.
Phillies don’t have enough to compete. Realmuto will be a hot commodity come July !
From what I read , i think they are waiting for the season to start so the new contract will start on next year’s payroll which they have the space for it.
Yes, although it’s not the season starting; rather, he has to sign a contract for this year so that the extension doesn’t begin until 2021. And they won’t sign a contract now with arbitration hanging its ugly head.
This is BS – “…and his camp are looking for $12.4MM, in part out of a desire to move the line forward for future catchers”
He’s either worth it or he’s not. Stop playing effing games.
Yes Philly, go ahead and dig your hole a little deeper. Five years guaranteed for a catcher should do it nicely.
These contracts aren’t putting them in a hole. Their inability to develop any in-house talent in the minors put them in a hole. These big contracts are the Phillies attempt to dig themselves out of a hole.
You’d think they’d have to drastically overpay to get him to sign. When was the last time the best catcher in the game made it to the open market? He could get a crazy deal if he performs like normal.
I agree that one would think that, except all indications are that he is open to an extension. Maybe he fears an injury or a downturn in performance? Maybe he really likes Philly? Everyone us different and all players don’t follow the same script.
“Maybe he really likes Philly?”
We can rule that out. He could like Philly a bit better than New York or Boston but there are certainly other places he would choose to play for equal money.
The issue right now is Realmuto knows he can get a lot more money elsewhere and elsewhere includes places he would rather play.
“The issue right now is Realmuto knows he can get a lot more money elsewhere and elsewhere includes places he would rather play.”
This is just ridiculous gossip. There is no issue at all right now. This was all expected. Realmuto played 1 season in Philly and did just fine. He said he’s open to an extension and that will likely be a priority for the Phillies, but the 2020 season didn’t even start yet. There’s no rush for anything. I don’t understand why people speculate on a players desires without any factual evidence.
I’ll be shocked if Realmuto re-ups with the Phillies.
I’d be shocked if he doesn’t.
Don’t see him getting more than 23M/yr, probably 18-21M range over 4 or 5 years. No DH and injury history of catchers on big deals. Only position that requires a handcuff backup bc you typically only get 120 or so games a season from your starter.