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How The Athletics Acquired A Cornerstone From A Division Rival

By Steve Adams | May 13, 2020 at 9:45pm CDT

Apparently the Astros didn’t know everything that was coming in 2017. Their Nov. 20 trade with the Athletics netted them right-hander Brandon Bailey … in exchange for budding outfield star Ramon Laureano.

Ramon Laureano | Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

At the time of the swap, it barely drew notice. It certainly didn’t seem like any sort of egregious misstep. Laureano had turned in a woeful .227/.298/.369 slash in Double-A that year. He connected on 11 home runs and swiped 24 bags, showing a bit of pop and some speed, but his walk rate was cut in half from its 2016 mark. Scouting reports praised his glovework, but the Astros apparently didn’t think his defense was as good as it’s proven to be. Former GM Jeff Luhnow admitted to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle last April that the Astros didn’t “quite [have] the defense rated as well as it’s played in the big leagues,” plainly calling the trade “one I’d love to have back.”

Laureano’s glove in 2019 didn’t play out quite as well as it did in 2018 — at least not in the estimation of most metrics. In just 385 innings in 2018, he logged +6 Defensive Runs Saved, a 3.7 Ultimate Zone Rating and +2 Outs Above Average. Those numbers dipped to +3, +0.7 and -5, respectively, in 1041 innings between center field and right field this past season. Even as his overall numbers might’ve taken a step back, Laureano showed off a cannon from both center and right. In 1426 innings at the MLB level, he’s racked up 17 assists — earning every bit of his “Laser Ramon” nickname.

As for his work at the plate, Laureano’s 2019 output matched his standout showing from his 2018 debut. Over the life of 481 plate appearances, he turned in a .288/.340/.521 batting line with 24 long balls and 13 stolen bases (in 15 attempts). That was good for a 126 wRC+ that lined up nicely with the 130 mark he posted as a rookie in 2018.

Overall, Laureano has appeared in 171 MLB games and taken 687 plate appearances — just over a full regular season’s worth of work. Between his outrageous arm, solid all-around defense, well-regarded baserunning ability and his strong work at the plate, he’s been worth 6.0 fWAR and 5.9 bWAR. That trade, considering the club control (through 2024) and low cost of acquisition, stands out as one of the best moves in recent memory for A’s executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane, GM David Forst and the rest of the Oakland staff.

Speaking of that cost of acquisition, it’s worth taking a look at what the Astros did get. The now-25-year-old Bailey is still a prospect of some note — albeit one that the ’Stros almost lost for nothing. Houston opted to leave Bailey unprotected in December’s Rule 5 Draft, and the Orioles (headed up by former Astros assistant GM Mike Elias) snagged him with the second overall pick. Baltimore since returned him, but that selection speaks to Bailey’s ability in and of itself.

Last year, the right-hander logged a 3.30 ERA in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting, averaging an even 10 strikeouts against 3.98 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s not an elite prospect, but Eric Longenhagen ranked him 30th among Houston farmhands at FanGraphs this winter, labeling him as a potential reliever with a “robust” arsenal. Clearly though, even if Bailey meets or exceeds that ceiling, he has a long way to go before making the Laureano swap look like anything less than a heist.

So, why did Houston move Laureano in the first place? The trade took place just prior to the deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, and the Astros weren’t set on adding Laureano after his aforementioned down year in Double-A. It’s a mistake that every club has made in some shape or form, and I’ll be the first to say that it’s not really fair to look back and make harsh judgments with the benefit of hindsight. That said, Astros decisionmakers have to cringe when they look back at the players they chose to preserve over Laureano.

The Astros themselves actually kept a 40-man roster spot open, which they used to select outfielder-turned-left-hander Anthony Gose from the Rangers in the Rule 5 Draft. Gose never pitched for Houston and wound up back with the Rangers. Preston Tucker was already on the 40-man roster but had posted a 102 wRC+ in Triple-A in 2017 without appearing in a big league game. He was designated for assignment less than a month after trading Laureano (clearing a roster spot for Hector Rondon). Houston also dedicated a 40-man roster spot to backup catcher Juan Centeno, whom they claimed off waivers a few days after trading Laureano.

As for players actually selected to the 40-man roster in protection from the Rule 5 Draft, Houston added lefty Cionel Perez and righty Dean Deetz. The former is still with the team but has yet to establish himself as a regular member of the pitching staff. The latter was hit with an 80-game PED suspension later that offseason and outrighted off the 40-man roster earlier this winter. He’s pitched 3 1/3 innings in the Majors.

Both Perez and Deetz were more highly regarded prospect at the time, and no one was labeling the Laureano deal any sort of heist or steal for the A’s. The purpose here isn’t to look back and say, “How could the Astros have possibly done this?!” but rather to give a tip of the cap to a savvy acquisition from the A’s that has not only greatly boosted their own long-term outlook but done so at the expense of a division powerhouse.

Oakland, after all, has Laureano penciled in as its center fielder for the next half decade and figures to reap enormous surplus value from his remaining pre-arb years and early arbitration seasons. For a low-payroll club, that’s all the more valuable. The Astros, meanwhile, are set to lose their entire outfield to free agency this winter. Vaunted prospect Kyle Tucker gives them one likely replacement, but it must be particularly difficult to see another would-be outfield cornerstone thriving with their closest competitor for AL West supremacy.

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27 Comments

  1. andrewgauldin

    5 years ago

    I got a nice chuckle from the first sentence.

    6
    Reply
  2. burrow_is_a_bust

    5 years ago

    How much does Brantley get in fa?

    Reply
    • hOsEbEeLiOn

      5 years ago

      Same amount future Canton bust QB Joe Burrow will sign on his rookie scale deal.

      Reply
    • Vladguerrerojr20

      5 years ago

      Depends what happens in 2020, if he hits under a .700 OPS. then nothing. If he has another season similar to 2019 .875 OPS. In 500+ ABs then he could get 15-20mill/year, 2-3 years I would say. My guess would be 2/35.

      Reply
      • astros2017

        5 years ago

        Vlad I would agree under normal circumstances, I am guessing free agent signings will be tremendously reduced next offseason though

        Reply
      • redsfan48

        5 years ago

        2/35 sounds reasonable even in what will be a down market

        Reply
  3. DarkSide830

    5 years ago

    at the very least they arent too much worse for it. very possible he wouldnt have even gotten a shot if he stayed in the Astros system. and to be honest, most people weren’t screaming when the trade was first made.

    1
    Reply
    • hOsEbEeLiOn

      5 years ago

      Hindsight is always 20 20.

      When prospects become something most fans make excuses as to why their team traded them

      When prospects don’t live up to value they say told you so.

      A’s found a gem. Good on them for finding the talent. Part luck, part research, and most importantly good on laureano for putting it together to make it.

      5
      Reply
  4. Vladguerrerojr20

    5 years ago

    Pretty gutsy move by Billy Beane after the Brutal season Laureano just played at AA. The risk payed off big, but it’s not a fleecing yet, Bailey seems like he has potential to be a mid to backend rotation piece.

    Reply
    • Strike Four

      5 years ago

      Pretty silly of any MLB front office professional to use AA stats as ANY kind of indicator of future performance.

      This is why Beane is the GOAT and you cant even fathom how it happened lol

      Reply
  5. arc89

    5 years ago

    bailey is a long sot as a 5th starter. Laureano will be a solid OF for a long time. A’s wo the trade by a wide mile.

    Reply
  6. Asfan0780

    5 years ago

    A’s outfield needed a total revamping after 2017. After trading moss, cespedes. Losing reddick to free agency. Failed short term additions with Rajai Davis who coincidentally they DFA/released max muncy in the corresponding move. 2018 off season came there were rumors of yelich, Ozuna from Marlins. They ended up doing the piscotty deal. Also what opened up laureanos chance was when dustin Fowler wasn’t quite healthy and struggling. He seems to be the odd guy out, not sure what plans if anything A’s have for him

    Reply
  7. statman

    5 years ago

    How bout the time that Mr. Beane drafted the football player with the no.9 pick!!!???!!! Ha!!!!!!!

    Reply
    • redsfan48

      5 years ago

      Well actually Murray is a baseball player masquerading as a football player, not the other way around. As much talent as he’s shown on the NFL field, he has even more baseball talent

      1
      Reply
      • DarkSide830

        5 years ago

        the guy won the Heisman despite being prejudiced for his height and then went into a relatively mediocre offence in ths NFL and won the offensive rookie of the year in the NFL. you sure about that?

        1
        Reply
        • steelerbravenation

          5 years ago

          I agree that kid was an amazing baseball player. If he played any other position other than QB he would be a star in both sports right now.

          1
          Reply
        • Strike Four

          5 years ago

          Yes, Murray is actually way better at baseball. He personally just prefers to play football. Murray should have gone #1 in the MLB draft but his whole preference thing got in the way.

          Kyler Murray as an absurd, HOF-level ceiling. Think Luis Robert plus.

          Obvious an A’s-hater like statman would bring this nonsense L to the table. Grow up, dude. Beane is the #1 GM in MLB whether you like it or not!

          1
          Reply
        • KCJ

          5 years ago

          Strike Four –
          Every time I read one of your posts I find myself amazed that you aren’t a GM for a championship level MLB team

          1
          Reply
  8. zacharydmanprin

    5 years ago

    Laureano had a few nagging legs injuries last year that most likely contributed to the down tick in the defensive metrics. Injuries are the asterisk that never seem to get applied with statistics.

    1
    Reply
  9. Strike Four

    5 years ago

    This is why Beane is the GOAT and everyone else is just trying to catch up with him.

    Reply
  10. julyn82001

    5 years ago

    A’s Billy Beane and co, just masterful doing trades with stream little resources. if only they could transfer that wiseness to the Athletics’ billionaire ownership so that they could spend more to keep their core of young valuable players without counting too much on a new stadium for a source of revenue. .

    Reply
  11. statman

    5 years ago

    I’ll admit Mr. Beane is great at one thing … crying poor and trading away star players when they get too expensive and getting very little in return. The playoffs are just a crapshoot, huh Mr. Beane, and it’s not your fault that you’ve failed all these times trying to win the big one … Ha!!!!!!!

    Reply
    • Vladguerrerojr20

      5 years ago

      I liked the team in 2014 and Billy pretty much went all in that year, only to get bounced in the wild card game. I didn’t like how they traded away one of their top 3 batters (Céspedes) in the middle of a playoff race, but I guess if that’s all Boston would take for Lester, he had to get his Ace. If they could have gotten past those pesky Royals they might have made a deep playoff run with that rotation. Lester, Gray, Shark, Kazmir, Pomeranz/Malone/Chavez. I thought they had the best staff in baseball that year.

      Reply
    • Sealbeach Comber

      5 years ago

      As it turns out….trading away star players in the post-steroid era is often a good move. You get their best years, trade them for young talent equity, and other teams pay them for past performance.

      Reply
  12. Sealbeach Comber

    5 years ago

    Astros should stick to what they do best….tanking for high draft picks and then cheating to win games. Bang! Buzz! Karma!

    Reply
    • takeitback

      5 years ago

      Hmmm……so it was tanking that landed them Laureano in the first place?

      Seems like they either did a great job scouting, or a great job developing, since they drafted Laureano in the 16th round out of an Oklahoma JC.

      Reply
      • Sealbeach Comber

        5 years ago

        Yeah, you keep on believing your team didn’t build itself on tanking and cheating. It was especially good scouting and development. lol.

        Reply

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