After selecting Joakim Soria out of the Padres’ farm system in the 2006 Rule 5 Draft, it could be argued that the Royals are still in the “playing with house money” honeymoon phase of the Rule 5 process. After all, even landing a Rule 5 player who can stick on a Major League roster for an entire season is a success, never mind landing a two-time All-Star like Soria through his 2007-11 heyday as Kansas City’s closer.
Eleven years after drafting Soria, it seems like the Royals again struck gold via the Rule 5 process. While Brad Keller has yet to reach All-Star levels, the right-hander has already enjoyed enough success over his first two MLB seasons that he looks like a solid building block for a young K.C. team.
Keller was an eighth-round pick for the Diamondbacks in the 2013 draft, and through five pro seasons had compiled some decent but unspectacular numbers in the Arizona farm system. Over 130 1/3 innings for Double-A Jackson in 2017, Keller posted a 4.68 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 1.95 K/BB rate, which wasn’t quite good enough for him to make the grade amidst something of a 40-man roster crunch for the D’Backs.
Coming off a 93-win season and a NLDS appearance in 2017, the Diamondbacks were focused on using much of their available 40-man spaces on players who could potentially provide immediate help in 2018, as GM Mike Hazen explained to the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro two years ago. “Our scouts liked [Keller]. We liked him,” Hazen said. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the Major League team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys…that were closer to the big leagues in our mind.”
So, the D’Backs left Keller unprotected in December 2017 draft, and it didn’t take long for another team to pounce on the right-hander. However, that other team wasn’t actually the Royals, whose spot in the Rule 5 draft order didn’t fall until the #18 spot that year. Instead it was the Reds who took Keller with the fifth pick, and then promptly dealt him to Kansas City for cash considerations. (The Royals swung a similar move just one pick later, acquiring sixth pick Burch Smith for cash from the Mets after New York selected Smith out of Tampa Bay’s farm system.)
Smith also ended up spending the entire 2018 season on the K.C. roster, though he was cut loose after posting a 6.92 ERA over 78 innings. Keller, on the other hand, was much more of an immediate success. After posting a 2.01 ERA over his first 22 1/3 frames of work out of Kansas City’s bullpen in 2018, Keller was promoted to the rotation and continued to succeed. The righty had a 3.28 ERA over his 20 starts, striking out 83 batters (against 43 walks) over 118 innings.
Keller’s sophomore year wasn’t quite as impressive, though he still managed a quite respectable 4.19 ERA, 1.74 K/BB, and 6.6 K/9 over 165 1/3 frames, all as a member of the Royals rotation. It could be argued that Keller was perhaps fortunate to manage that 4.19 mark, as some ERA predictors (4.94 xFIP, 5.23 SIERA) were significantly higher, and batters made much more solid contract off him in 2019 than in 2018. The Statcast metrics also took a dim view of Keller’s 2019 performance, with a whole lot of blue — as in, below-average — numbers for Keller in comparison to other pitchers in exit velocity, xwOBA, strikeout percentage, and several other categories.
That said, advanced metrics don’t tend to favor low-strikeout hurlers like Keller who specialize in keeping the ball on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings tossed over the last two seasons, Keller has the lowest (8.4%) home run rate in baseball, and the second-highest (52%) grounder rate. These outstanding numbers are particularly valuable in this era of the lively ball, and Keller could further benefit from some improved defense behind him, should Maikel Franco provide any sort of upgrade at third base.
All told, 4.8 fWAR over two seasons already represents a very nice return on the Royals’ initial minor cash outlay to Cincinnati. Keller doesn’t turn 25 until July, and he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this coming offseason, putting him under the Royals’ control through the 2023 campaign. Under normal circumstances, Keller could be a player the Royals might have already locked up to a contract extension, and while all extension talks are halted under the current transactions freeze, it wouldn’t be a surprise if K.C. began some talks with Keller’s representatives once regular business gets back underway.
While truly major Rule 5 Draft success stories are relatively few and far between these days, a team only needs to hit on one pick to make the enterprise worthwhile. Finding a big league talent for virtually nothing is a win for any team, and if that talent is a mid-20’s starting pitcher who looks like he can hang in at least the middle of a big league rotation, the Royals got a valuable boost to their latest rebuilding effort.
He’ll do as an “ace” until the Royals bring up Lynch, Singer, and Kowar. Kowar probably has the most ace potential of that bunch with Singer and Lynch behind him, though he’s much riskier than Singer.
Most articles I read says Lynch could be the ace of the Royals staff in the future … If the baseball Gods are with the Royals all 3 of Kowar Lynch and Singer could become aces and they could resemble the Braves of the 90s .. Now all things would have to break right … but the opportunity is there for KC
They’re all fantastic pitchers. The only thing they need now is a competent offense.
Outside of the corner infield spots and Gordon in Left the Royals offense is pretty good. Those just happen to be the easiest positions to fill in FA in terms of offensive production.
I think the corner spots will surprise us whenever they get to play. As a whole, I’m happy with the offense they are putting together. Franco is a potential .300 hitter if he’s line-driving the ball and not swinging for the fences and McBroom has shown an ability to hit in his limited at bats (75 abs, .293 avg.) I’m not a big fan of Ohearn.
Gordon hit a respectable .266 last season. If he can stay close to that, I’m happy with his production in LF for one more year. I do wish we hadn’t dropped Brian Goodwin.
Starling also has shown some potential to step in and hit .300 (as he was swinging great in spring training). If he gets hot, I can see Nicky Lopez sitting.
It’s too bad the season’s been delayed. If Soler came out blasting again, he’d be the much needed trade piece to get an upgrade at Starting Pitcher to carry us until the young trio are ready.
I don’t think you’ll ever see three aces like that together for that long again. In today’s game, Maddux is probably a $300 million commitment with Smoltz and Glavine being $200 million dollar pitchers.
It’s cute you think Maddux is worth $100 mil more than Smoltz and Glavine.
I would have to agree that Maddux would get more, how much more?
Really depends on what year you are signing them.
Yeah, my comment wasn’t that clear. I meant Maddux falls in the $300+ bracket while Smoltz and Glavine’s deals would range in the $200+.
Point being, Maddux would definitely outearn Smoltz and Glavine. All are first-ballot Hall of Famers, but Maddux was among the elite of the elite and a cut above both of those guys.
Yes, that’s right on point. Good post!
i disagree. i think as far as weighing their entire careers, that was a great 1-2-3 punch to have, but i think many teams since have had such a compliment of starters that have been better for a shorter time.
Theres some pretty good staffs around these days
Max./Stras/Corbin have a chance and are kinda getting paid like that as the best example- But also..
Patino/ Gore/Paddack are coming
The Yankees could add 2 young Sps on long contracts to pair with Cole moving forward
Just last year the Indians had a chance to have a Kluber Clevinger Carrasco Bauer Bieber staff –
The Shaw Ryu Buehler staff was amazing last year
Snell Glass Morton– Degroom Noah Wheeler last year as well
If we are talking longevity you are correct but we are going to see some pretty deadly 3 man staffs along the way –
In 2019, I would say Bubic pitched better than all of them. He looked fantastic. Was really looking forward to seeing how he performed this year.
It could be like the Royal’s in the early 80’s who had 4 future 20 game winners, 2 of them cy young winners in the minor leagues at the same time. Saberhagen, Cone, Gubicza & Danny Jackson. So it has happened before.
No one’s even mentioned Bubic who led the minors in Ks and had an incredible K/BB ratio.
I’m a big Bubic fan! He’s going to be outstanding!
Thank you Johnny Superscout
You need a new line Kid9.
honestly i agree but its hardly an indictment on Keller. its very possible that he becomes their #5 simply by virtue of Singer, Kowar, Lynch, and Bubic being better. and i say that as someone who is a pretty big Keller fan. those 4 prospects have nearly the ceilings of the pitching prospects Atlanta had in the past few years with much higher floors each.
Advanced metrics will always under value Keller. You don’t have to have a 10 k/9 to be a good pitcher. He’s got the ability to be a good pitcher. He’s big, he’s young, and he has the ability to get major leaguers out. He will stick around for a while on large park, defense first teams like the Royals.
Absolutely agree perfect setting for him to be in. Add in a great defense and I’d like my chances if I were the royals as well for the future.
It was a missed opportunity because the Reds traded him for cash. I’d really like to know how much.
Other people’s garbage excel for the Royals. There’s hope for the Orioles yet
Burch Smith is trash. He was a failed pitcher from the padres system not the rays system. Padres got rid of him, he had already made his major league debut like 6 years or so prior
he was with the Rays when he was selected
You are not listening
Dude has been in the majors with several teams, he is trash. He got through the minors the first time by over powering hitters with fast balls. Once the league caught up he had nothing else.
picking burch smith was the biggest mistake of that rule five draft. And I don’t think Dayton was thinking very clearly when he kept Burch on the 25 man roster all year long.
Not sure I’d call Keller a gem. Really his calling card was getting incredibly lucky on the number of HRs hit. xFIP paints a picture of a below to significantly below average SP..
He’s got 2 primary pitches, which generally isn’t good enough to make it as a starter. If you look at the splits vs lefties it was pretty terrible. 1.5 K:BB rate is not good enough to succeed, and if he doesn’t improve there he’s likely to be a reliever.
If the Royals offer him an extension it’ll probably be a poor deal for the team. Might be a better fit in relief but he’s likely to get crushed if he continues pitching the way he has.
For the rule 5 draft, getting a useable SP is a gem
…especially for small(er) market teams