Yomiuri Giants right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano could be posted for Major League teams this winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. It’s not yet certain that he’ll be made available, but the Giants are considering the move for one of the more accomplished pitchers in Japan given that he’ll be eligible for unrestricted international free agency next winter. Sherman adds that NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters may post a pair of players themselves: fellow righty Kohei Arihara and outfielder Haruki Nishikawa.
Sugano, who recently turned 31, is the most prominent name of the bunch and the most relevant for MLB fans. He had a tough 2019 season, by his standards (3.89 ERA) but has otherwise posted an ERA of 2.14 or better each season since 2015. Overall, dating back to Opening Day 2015, he’s notched a highly efficient 2.20 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over the course of 1015 1/3 innings out of the rotation. He’s a six-time All-Star in Japan and a two-time winner of NPB’s Sawamura Award — their league’s equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.
MLB fans may remember Sugano from an impressive showing in the 2017 World Baseball Classic — one that prompted U.S. skipper Jim Leyland to offer high volumes of praise for the righty.
“I can’t tell you, for me, tonight, how impressed I was with their pitcher,” Leyland said at the time (link via MLB.com’s Joe Trezza). “I mean, I thought he was really good. Located on the ball on the outside corners, fastball. Threw 3-0 sliders. That’s pretty impressive.” Leyland plainly called Sugano a “big league pitcher” after that game. (Those interested can check out all 81 of Sugano’s pitches from that game in this YouTube clip.)
Team USA’s Andrew McCutchen also acknowledged that Sugano was impressive in that outing, during which he held a deep U.S. roster to one unearned run over six innings with six strikeouts and a walk. Sugano’s fastball averages 92-93 mph and, like his curveball, boasts a strong spin rate. Sports Info Solution’s Will Hoefer took a look at him last October, calling him at least a No. 4 starter in the big leagues, and that was after an injury-hindered campaign as opposed to the strong 2020 showing Sugano just authored.
The Giants have yet to make a formal declaration on Sugano’s status, although that’s not a surprise given that they’re still alive in NPB’s postseason format. Sherman notes that the typical window during which NPB clubs can post a player has been pushed back to Nov. 8-Dec. 12, which will buy the Giants a bit more time in making their ultimate decision. The NPB Climax Series is expected to run through late November.
Turning to the 28-year-old Arihara, he’s a former rotation-mate of Shohei Ohtani, so big league scouts have surely gotten ample looks at him over the years. Arihara spent much of the early portion of his career working to ERA marks in the mid-4.00s, but he’s seen improved results since 2019, with a 2.93 mark and a 265-to-68 K/BB ratio in 292 frames.
Hoefer also profiled him late last year, noting that Arihara’s fastball runs up to 95 mph but has a pretty wide variance in terms of its velocity. Hoefer pegged Arihara’s changeup as his lone plus offering but noted that his splitter and slider are potentially average offerings. Arihara won’t turn 29 until next August, so he’s younger not only than Sugano but than just about any MLB free-agent starter of note.
Nishikawa, 29 in April, hit .296/.419/.388 with just five homers, 15 doubles and three triples this year, although he also swiped 37 bags in 42 tries. He’s posted an OBP of .378 or better in each of the past four seasons while striking out in 16.5 percent of his plate appearances against a 14.3 percent walk rate. Nishikawa has three stolen base titles, three Gold Gloves in the outfield and a pair of All-Star nods in NPB. He made it known last offseason that he hoped the Fighters would post him for big league clubs this winter.
For those in need of a refresher or a crash course on the current posting system between Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, it’s a fairly straightforward process. Unlike the old blind bidding system, players posted by an NPB or KBO club are free to negotiate with all 30 clubs. So long as they’re over 25 years of age and have six-plus years of MLB service — each of Sugano, Arihara and Nishikawa do — they’re able to sign Major League contracts of any length for any amount.
In addition to the money paid to the player, his new team in MLB must also pay a release fee to the former NPB/KBO club. That fee correlates directly with the size of the contract. MLB clubs pay a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM to the former team. The fee also includes 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter.
The release fee is on top of the actual contract for the player. So, for example, a $50MM contract would cost a team a total of $59.375MM — $50MM to the player and $9.375MM to the former club. Option years and incentives/bonuses are also factored in if they are eventually unlocked (e.g. a $10MM club option tacked on top of the previous theoretical $50MM deal would require the MLB club to pay $1.5MM to the former team once it is picked up — 15 percent of the guarantee beyond $50MM).
creative SP option for the Phillies
I’ve always been fascinated by Japanese ballplayers. The passion and tradition that you find in Japanese baseball goes back decades….I’d love to see the Phils dip their toes in the Nippon waters. I think Tad Iguchi and So Toguchi are the only Japanese Phillies….and we got both of them in the twilight of their primes.
Sign me up for Sugano action!!
Sugano and Kim would be great additions for the roster.
I’d be on board with it, but I’m still not convinced they’ll be making any splashes this offseason.
Boy, the Orioles sure could use…..
Doubt that they’d be interested in paying a posting fee on top of a contract for any of these guys. With the MASN fight and pandemic cut revenues—I’d be rather surprised to see any of them come here. I’m expecting more Tommy Millone/Wade Leblanc type signings. Especially since we should have more than 5 young arms ready to get a look this year. Means, Kremer, Akin +Cobb should start the year. Then you have Baumann, Lowther, Zimmerman, and Wells who should get a look at some point early on.
I’m going to comment “Angels should be interested” on pretty much every pitching article this year.
Angels should be interested.
You have the right idea no doubt. They need pitching, pitching, and more pitching
Wow 10 complete games in 2018
and 8 of them SHO no less
He’ll probably want a West cost team
I’m assuming Nishikawa can play center given his speed, and I can’t imagine he’d get much more than Hyun-soo Kim did a few years ago from the Orioles.
If the Indians sign anyone to a major league deal this winter (which might not happen), they might as well take a cheap flyer on a guy who can get on base and run. They need a ton of outfield help, and if they decide to non-tender DeShields and/or Naquin then that would save up to about $4-5 million right there.
More of a 4th OF
Off topic but related, how is Yusei Kickuchi still a major leaguer?
you obviously didn’t watch him pitch this year…
Voodoo…you obviously didn’t watch him pitch this year….
Hi Steve,
What is the expected contract for Sugano? I know he just missed the top 50 free agents list but I’ve got to imagine his potential earning power is greater than Chris Archers 1yr/$4m
Based on where he ranks within with upcoming free agent class and age … somewhere between 8 to 12 per season. Maybe on a two to three year deal.
Wow Sugano (statistically anyway) might be the best Japanese pitcher to come stateside in quite a while. Even compared to other big name pitchers who have made the jump (with the exception of 2019) Sugano boasts some of the most impressive statistics of any Japanese pitcher in recent memory. If he can pitch anywhere near to the levels he has in Japan he could immediately become quite the #1/2 starter in the majors. Will be interesting to see what the market is for him… but I for one am someone who believes pretty strongly that if you post numbers as impressive as his – regardless of whether it’s in Japan or the Majors — you’re bound to find at least some success in the majors so I would certainly be on board with a team going after him in hopes of acquiring an “ace” or at least a VERY serviceable #2 (or worst case #3) starter.
Yep, he was impresive even when his FB velocity down from 98-97 in his debut to only 93-92 in this season.
He got paid 650M yen this year ( Almost 6M USD), so i wondering how much money he will ask if he got posting to the MLB. If he didnt pursue money like Shohei Ohtani did, he might have a lot interest..
You forgot to mention that Sugano has won 14 of his 19 games this year. 2.04 ERA over 132.1 IP. It doesn’t matter if last year was bad, because his season this year has been incredible. As someone who has followed NPB religiously for the last ten years, I would not rank him as highly as Ohtani, but he is easily a top pitcher on a top team. No doubt about it. As good if not better than Darvish.
From what I’ve read and watched the main difference between Sugano and others posted is age and velo. He doesn’t have the stuff of Ohtani Tanaka or Darvish but his control is impeccable and he has 4 usable pitches. not sure how he compares to Maeda or Kikuchi. I could see him being similar today’s Tanaka which is a solid mid rotation starter
Unlike Tanaka, Sugano has consistency. Tanaka struggles with that a lot which hampers him, while Sugano tends to maintain his quality. He’s old, which does mean he won’t adapt as cleanly and could just outright fail in MLB, but I have no reason to believe he isn’t a first or second choice option for a team. Tanaka would be an ace if he didn’t blow up all the time, mind you.
IMHO, Sugano is far better than Kikuchi and his number in Japan is little bit similar with Kenta Maeda in Japan.
If you wanna watch NPB, you can watch it online on Youtube. They usually start broadcast in 6PM local time (GMT+9) in weekdays and 2PM local time in weekends
Keywords in YT so you can find the channel who stream the game online
Yakult Swallows: #ヤクルト
Yomiuri Giants: 巨人
Agree. He will be a reliable starter. Nothing flashy but someone you can count on every start to give a solid effort.
Maeda>Tanaka>Sugano>>>Kikuchi
There is MLB caliber talent in Japan. When they come stateside they are usually on the downward trajectory of their careers.
Yetsuto Yamaha, Seiya Suzuki, Kodai Senga and Sugano will be solid major leaguers if they choose to come over.
Yamamoto needs to be added to that list
Agreed. May have the highest upside of all the pitchers. Could also include Sasaki to the list of names as well.