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Tomoyuki Sugano Will Be Posted For MLB Clubs

By Steve Adams | November 26, 2020 at 7:39am CDT

NOV. 26: Kohei Arihara has been posted, according to MLB Insider Jon Morosi (via Twitter). As Morosi notes, the 28-year-old has a 3.65 ERA over 882 career innings.

NOV. 25: Yomiuri will post Sugano, according to Sanspo (via Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter).

NOV. 2: Yomiuri Giants right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano could be posted for Major League teams this winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. It’s not yet certain that he’ll be made available, but the Giants are considering the move for one of the more accomplished pitchers in Japan given that he’ll be eligible for unrestricted international free agency next winter. Sherman adds that NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters may post a pair of players themselves: fellow righty Kohei Arihara and outfielder Haruki Nishikawa.

Sugano, who recently turned 31, is the most prominent name of the bunch and the most relevant for MLB fans. He had a tough 2019 season, by his standards (3.89 ERA) but has otherwise posted an ERA of 2.14 or better each season since 2015. Overall, dating back to Opening Day 2015, he’s notched a highly efficient 2.20 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over the course of 1015 1/3 innings out of the rotation. He’s a six-time All-Star in Japan and a two-time winner of NPB’s Sawamura Award — their league’s equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.

MLB fans may remember Sugano from an impressive showing in the 2017 World Baseball Classic — one that prompted U.S. skipper Jim Leyland to offer high volumes of praise for the righty.

“I can’t tell you, for me, tonight, how impressed I was with their pitcher,” Leyland said at the time (link via MLB.com’s Joe Trezza). “I mean, I thought he was really good. Located on the ball on the outside corners, fastball. Threw 3-0 sliders. That’s pretty impressive.” Leyland plainly called Sugano a “big league pitcher” after that game. (Those interested can check out all 81 of Sugano’s pitches from that game in this YouTube clip.)

Team USA’s Andrew McCutchen also acknowledged that Sugano was impressive in that outing, during which he held a deep U.S. roster to one unearned run over six innings with six strikeouts and a walk. Sugano’s fastball averages 92-93 mph and, like his curveball, boasts a strong spin rate. Sports Info Solution’s Will Hoefer took a look at him last October, calling him at least a No. 4 starter in the big leagues, and that was after an injury-hindered campaign as opposed to the strong 2020 showing Sugano just authored.

The Giants have yet to make a formal declaration on Sugano’s status, although that’s not a surprise given that they’re still alive in NPB’s postseason format. Sherman notes that the typical window during which NPB clubs can post a player has been pushed back to Nov. 8-Dec. 12, which will buy the Giants a bit more time in making their ultimate decision. The NPB Climax Series is expected to run through late November.

Turning to the 28-year-old Arihara, he’s a former rotation-mate of Shohei Ohtani, so big league scouts have surely gotten ample looks at him over the years. Arihara spent much of the early portion of his career working to ERA marks in the mid-4.00s, but he’s seen improved results since 2019, with a 2.93 mark and a 265-to-68 K/BB ratio in 292 frames.

Hoefer also profiled him late last year, noting that Arihara’s fastball runs up to 95 mph but has a pretty wide variance in terms of its velocity. Hoefer pegged Arihara’s changeup as his lone plus offering but noted that his splitter and slider are potentially average offerings. Arihara won’t turn 29 until next August, so he’s younger not only than Sugano but than just about any MLB free-agent starter of note.

Nishikawa, 29 in April, hit .296/.419/.388 with just five homers, 15 doubles and three triples this year, although he also swiped 37 bags in 42 tries. He’s posted an OBP of .378 or better in each of the past four seasons while striking out in 16.5 percent of his plate appearances against a 14.3 percent walk rate. Nishikawa has three stolen base titles, three Gold Gloves in the outfield and a pair of All-Star nods in NPB. He made it known last offseason that he hoped the Fighters would post him for big league clubs this winter.

For those in need of a refresher or a crash course on the current posting system between Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, it’s a fairly straightforward process. Unlike the old blind bidding system, players posted by an NPB or KBO club are free to negotiate with all 30 clubs. So long as they’re over 25 years of age and have six-plus years of MLB service — each of Sugano, Arihara and Nishikawa do — they’re able to sign Major League contracts of any length for any amount.

In addition to the money paid to the player, his new team in MLB must also pay a release fee to the former NPB/KBO club. That fee correlates directly with the size of the contract. MLB clubs pay a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM to the former team. The fee also includes 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter.

The release fee is on top of the actual contract for the player. So, for example, a $50MM contract would cost a team a total of $59.375MM — $50MM to the player and $9.375MM to the former club. Option years and incentives/bonuses are also factored in if they are eventually unlocked (e.g. a $10MM club option tacked on top of the previous theoretical $50MM deal would require the MLB club to pay $1.5MM to the former team once it is picked up — 15 percent of the guarantee beyond $50MM).

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Uncategorized Haruki Nishikawa Kohei Arihara Tomoyuki Sugano

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View Comments (49)

Comments

  1. DarkSide830

    2 years ago

    creative SP option for the Phillies

    Reply
    • HalfBaked McBride

      2 years ago

      I’ve always been fascinated by Japanese ballplayers. The passion and tradition that you find in Japanese baseball goes back decades….I’d love to see the Phils dip their toes in the Nippon waters. I think Tad Iguchi and So Toguchi are the only Japanese Phillies….and we got both of them in the twilight of their primes.

      Sign me up for Sugano action!!

      Reply
      • phillyphilly4133

        2 years ago

        Sugano and Kim would be great additions for the roster.

        Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      2 years ago

      I’d be on board with it, but I’m still not convinced they’ll be making any splashes this offseason.

      Reply
  2. Lefty_Orioles_Fan

    2 years ago

    Boy, the Orioles sure could use…..

    Reply
    • jbigz12

      2 years ago

      Doubt that they’d be interested in paying a posting fee on top of a contract for any of these guys. With the MASN fight and pandemic cut revenues—I’d be rather surprised to see any of them come here. I’m expecting more Tommy Millone/Wade Leblanc type signings. Especially since we should have more than 5 young arms ready to get a look this year. Means, Kremer, Akin +Cobb should start the year. Then you have Baumann, Lowther, Zimmerman, and Wells who should get a look at some point early on.

      Reply
    • 22Leo

      2 years ago

      A merciful death?

      Reply
  3. HalosHeavenJJ

    2 years ago

    I’m going to comment “Angels should be interested” on pretty much every pitching article this year.

    Angels should be interested.

    Reply
    • seth3120

      2 years ago

      You have the right idea no doubt. They need pitching, pitching, and more pitching

      Reply
  4. PapiElf

    2 years ago

    Wow 10 complete games in 2018

    Reply
    • DarkSide830

      2 years ago

      and 8 of them SHO no less

      Reply
  5. MetsFan22

    2 years ago

    He’ll probably want a West cost team

    Reply
    • johnnydubz

      2 years ago

      Or just a team that will pay him in this current market.

      Reply
  6. Michael Chaney

    2 years ago

    I’m assuming Nishikawa can play center given his speed, and I can’t imagine he’d get much more than Hyun-soo Kim did a few years ago from the Orioles.

    If the Indians sign anyone to a major league deal this winter (which might not happen), they might as well take a cheap flyer on a guy who can get on base and run. They need a ton of outfield help, and if they decide to non-tender DeShields and/or Naquin then that would save up to about $4-5 million right there.

    Reply
    • phillyphilly4133

      2 years ago

      More of a 4th OF

      Reply
  7. Ol Voodoo

    2 years ago

    Off topic but related, how is Yusei Kickuchi still a major leaguer?

    Reply
    • bearproof

      2 years ago

      you obviously didn’t watch him pitch this year…

      Reply
    • kylegocougs

      2 years ago

      He showed lots of flashes this season at times. Upped his Velo to 96 and developed a 93 mph cutter. He’s worth giving 20-30 more starts to

      Reply
  8. bearproof

    2 years ago

    Voodoo…you obviously didn’t watch him pitch this year….

    Reply
  9. angelsinthetroutfield

    2 years ago

    Hi Steve,
    What is the expected contract for Sugano? I know he just missed the top 50 free agents list but I’ve got to imagine his potential earning power is greater than Chris Archers 1yr/$4m

    Reply
    • phillyphilly4133

      2 years ago

      Based on where he ranks within with upcoming free agent class and age … somewhere between 8 to 12 per season. Maybe on a two to three year deal.

      Reply
  10. Jeff Zanghi

    2 years ago

    Wow Sugano (statistically anyway) might be the best Japanese pitcher to come stateside in quite a while. Even compared to other big name pitchers who have made the jump (with the exception of 2019) Sugano boasts some of the most impressive statistics of any Japanese pitcher in recent memory. If he can pitch anywhere near to the levels he has in Japan he could immediately become quite the #1/2 starter in the majors. Will be interesting to see what the market is for him… but I for one am someone who believes pretty strongly that if you post numbers as impressive as his – regardless of whether it’s in Japan or the Majors — you’re bound to find at least some success in the majors so I would certainly be on board with a team going after him in hopes of acquiring an “ace” or at least a VERY serviceable #2 (or worst case #3) starter.

    Reply
    • niel.marshal

      2 years ago

      Yep, he was impresive even when his FB velocity down from 98-97 in his debut to only 93-92 in this season.

      He got paid 650M yen this year ( Almost 6M USD), so i wondering how much money he will ask if he got posting to the MLB. If he didnt pursue money like Shohei Ohtani did, he might have a lot interest..

      Reply
    • Yankee Clipper

      2 years ago

      Since Masa Tanaka…. who had some incredible video-game like statistics and single-game records in Japan. If not for the UCL, Tanaka would be even better, and I think he’s done quite well in MLB. I’m curious to see if the Yankees are heavily involved due to their need for starters.

      Reply
  11. Elite-Finnish

    2 years ago

    You forgot to mention that Sugano has won 14 of his 19 games this year. 2.04 ERA over 132.1 IP. It doesn’t matter if last year was bad, because his season this year has been incredible. As someone who has followed NPB religiously for the last ten years, I would not rank him as highly as Ohtani, but he is easily a top pitcher on a top team. No doubt about it. As good if not better than Darvish.

    Reply
    • angelsinthetroutfield

      2 years ago

      From what I’ve read and watched the main difference between Sugano and others posted is age and velo. He doesn’t have the stuff of Ohtani Tanaka or Darvish but his control is impeccable and he has 4 usable pitches. not sure how he compares to Maeda or Kikuchi. I could see him being similar today’s Tanaka which is a solid mid rotation starter

      Reply
      • Elite-Finnish

        2 years ago

        Unlike Tanaka, Sugano has consistency. Tanaka struggles with that a lot which hampers him, while Sugano tends to maintain his quality. He’s old, which does mean he won’t adapt as cleanly and could just outright fail in MLB, but I have no reason to believe he isn’t a first or second choice option for a team. Tanaka would be an ace if he didn’t blow up all the time, mind you.

        Reply
      • niel.marshal

        2 years ago

        IMHO, Sugano is far better than Kikuchi and his number in Japan is little bit similar with Kenta Maeda in Japan.

        If you wanna watch NPB, you can watch it online on Youtube. They usually start broadcast in 6PM local time (GMT+9) in weekdays and 2PM local time in weekends

        Keywords in YT so you can find the channel who stream the game online

        Yakult Swallows: #ヤクルト
        Yomiuri Giants: 巨人

        Reply
      • phillyphilly4133

        2 years ago

        Agree. He will be a reliable starter. Nothing flashy but someone you can count on every start to give a solid effort.

        Maeda>Tanaka>Sugano>>>Kikuchi

        Reply
        • niel.marshal

          2 years ago

          Tanaka number in NPB actually a lot better than Maeda, thats why he got a bigger contract than Maeda when he going to US (155M/7yrs). His first season in Yankees is showing that. But after that he got injured and his FB lost its velo and he relying more in his splitter.

          Maeda however, got a bad contract with LAD when his medical exam turn out not really good. Thats why he only get 3.25M guarantee and another like 10M in incentive for his start. Hw can bring about 13-14M if he got at least 30 start per season. Turns out he never got injured while he in LAD. He always healthy, not always reliable sure, but hes kinda guy who can play at least 30 start with an ERA about or below 4.

          And Sugano is like Maeda, might even better, 4 pitch guy with 93mph FB and good control.

  12. phillyphilly4133

    2 years ago

    There is MLB caliber talent in Japan. When they come stateside they are usually on the downward trajectory of their careers.

    Yetsuto Yamaha, Seiya Suzuki, Kodai Senga and Sugano will be solid major leaguers if they choose to come over.

    Reply
    • angelsinthetroutfield

      2 years ago

      Yamamoto needs to be added to that list

      Reply
      • phillyphilly4133

        2 years ago

        Agreed. May have the highest upside of all the pitchers. Could also include Sasaki to the list of names as well.

        Reply
  13. jorge78

    2 years ago

    Can someone please tell why or how there is a Yomiuri Giants team in both the Japanese Eastern and Pacific Leagues?
    I’ve seen it in other players stat lines on Baseball Reference.
    I wrote BR asking about this but they never responded which is odd as they have always responded quickly in the past.
    I do find in these pandemic times customer service has slowed (for understandable reasons!). But I digress. Is it possible the Yomuiri company fielded two teams in some years? I don’t know who else to ask. I would really appreciate some help on this. Thanks!

    Reply
    • Vizionaire

      2 years ago

      quick google search tells me the eastern league is a minor league.

      Reply
      • jorge78

        2 years ago

        I’m an old luddite and Alexa is stalking me!
        Thank you for your help!
        Most appreciated!

        Reply
    • impliedi

      2 years ago

      The major league Yomiuri Giants play in the Central League, while their minor league affiliate, also named the Yomiuri Giants, plays in the Eastern League.

      Reply
      • jorge78

        2 years ago

        Ditto (See thank you above)! I’m not lazy, just
        old, wracked with pain and half blind with permanent double vision. A computer (which I do not have) screen I can take in small doses, my phone is a little more bearable so I sincerely give my thanks!

        Reply
  14. Jaa1968

    2 years ago

    Boston should be all over one of these pitchers

    Reply
  15. CalcetinesBlancos

    2 years ago

    Make it happen Sox.

    Reply
  16. Dorothy_Mantooth

    2 years ago

    Sugano instantly becomes one of the Top 5 free agent pitchers on the market now. At age 32, he’s probably looking a 3 year deal @ $7-$8M per season. 3/$25M could be a smart deal for some team. Maybe the Twins?

    Reply
  17. WereAllJustGuestsHere

    2 years ago

    Jays might want to get in on this guy.

    Reply
  18. Niedenfuer92

    2 years ago

    Twins, can get settled in smoother having Maeda around. In need of another starter.

    Reply
  19. Peart of the game

    2 years ago

    Arihara is essentially similar to a slightly worse Miles Mikolas and should perform about as well as Mike Leake who has been about a league average pitcher.

    Tomoyuki Sugano on the other hand is a #1/#2 starting pitcher who should get an AAV above what Kikuchi got with the Seattle Mariners.

    Reply
  20. bluejays77

    2 years ago

    Sports Info Solutions has updated reports on these guys now. They have Sugano as a number 2/3 starter and Arihara as a number 4

    Reply
  21. jonscriff

    2 years ago

    it says he’s 31 on his page not 28

    Reply
  22. VonPurpleHayes

    2 years ago

    My greedy and not likely wishlist for the Phillies includes: Realmuto, Sugano, Hand and Hendriks. I doubt they’ll get any of them let alone all 4.

    Reply
    • Peart of the game

      2 years ago

      Depends on how much they want to spend but they could get three of the four players

      Reply
      • VonPurpleHayes

        2 years ago

        The problem is, it seems they don’t want to spend at all, and they need to figure out the GM situation.

        Reply

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