This could be an offseason of significant change for the Cubs, who may be looking to shake things up after a disappointing finish to the 2020 campaign. The Cubs earned their first NL Central title since 2017, but they succumbed to the upstart Marlins in a two-game sweep during the wild-card round. Now, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein could be looking to reinvent the Cubs’ roster. As Buster Olney of ESPN reported over the weekend, the Cubs are willing “to move almost any veteran.”
It seems more likely that any major subtractions will come from the Cubs’ lineup, not their pitching staff, which features 2020 Cy Young contender Yu Darvish and the bargain-priced Kyle Hendricks. It looks even less probable that reliever Craig Kimbrel, who’s owed a guaranteed $17MM through next season, will end up in a trade.
On the offensive side, it’s realistic to think that any of catcher Willson Contreras, shortstop Javier Baez, third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or left fielder Kyle Schwarber could be on the move. All of those players have been staples for the Cubs for years, but their days could be numbered if the team’s looking to cut payroll and tinker with its lineup.
The 28-year-old Contreras is coming off his fifth straight productive campaign and, as someone who should make between $5MM and $7.4MM in his second-last season of arbitration, would have value in a trade. Baez was a star middle infielder from 2018-19, but the 27-year-old’s production cratered this past season, and he’ll earn around $11MM in his final trip through arbitration. The 28-year-old Bryant, like Baez, went through a surprisingly difficult 2020. A former NL MVP, Bryant may even be a non-tender candidate, as he’s slated to earn approximately $19MM in his last year of arbitration control. Schwarber, who’s due anywhere from $7MM to $9.3MM, could also be a high-profile non-tender in the wake of a poor season.
Ideally for the Cubs, they’ll be able to find takers for any of these players if they actually are considering moving on from them. Whether it’s via trade or non-tender, though, which player from the Contereras-Baez-Bryant-Schwarber group do you think the Cubs are most likely to get rid of this offseason?
(Poll link for app users)
i doubt any of these core guys goes, but if its any is the guy they wouldnt be selling low on (Contreras)
One of either Bryant or Baez would need to be packaged with Contreras to gain a nice return.
what, you think Contreras isnt getting a good return on his own
They won’t get the big return on Bryant or Baez. Hence, packaging Contreras. Should I slow it down for you?
Bryant doesn’t have trade value in this market.
They won’t be selling low on any of there players. Therefore, they won’t be selling
If they’re a pending FA though then if they don’t sell low, they can’t sell at all. That means Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber potentially walking for nothing.
Unless they extend everyone, they should move someone
Totally agree…. even though I love Baez. He has an amazing ability to somehow get like 2 percentage points higher of an obp than he has on his batting average. So if he doesn’t hit well he’s not going to be on base too much. Combine that with k rate and that is the result. Love his defense though
That assumes that they don’t want to compete. Otherwise, all players in their walk year would be traded, effectively ending their value.
If they want to compete then trading any of their core players is a non-starter
I said Contreras because he is still a top 5 catcher, and he plays a position of premium need right now. Not to mention the extra year of control. I brought up a trade of Contreras to the Rangers yesterday, and I really like the idea of that though I doubt it happens.
I really hope the rangers do good next year. What do you think the rangers biggest need is?
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Our position players could conceivably be left exactly how they are right now and we could have 9 ehh players going out each day (Not good, ehh). But we have no starting pitching. Kyle Gibson and Kyle Cody are our only “locks” outside of the ace we will probably trade this winter. So I have names like James Paxton, Chris Archer, Anthony Descafani, and Corey Kluber in my head right now for starting options. Preferably Archer and Paxton (Give Paxton a 3-30 deal like we have for the past 4 years). BTW Kyle Cody is a sneaky name to keep an eye on for next season if you want to keep track of some under the radar guys.
Then as a lesser need is the infield. Hopefully we just trade/release Odor and then sign Ha-Seong Kim. That’s it, that’s all we need for the infield. Oh, and signing a backup for Trevino like Suzuki.
Nevertheless, 2021 is going to be a huge building year for us. Solidify a nice little core of IKF, Gallo, and Kim before Jung and Huff come up and we can finally start looking towards the postseason in 22′.
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Our position players could conceivably be left exactly how they are right now and we could have 9 ehh players going out each day (Not good, ehh). But we have no starting pitching. Kyle Gibson and Kyle Cody are our only “locks” outside of the ace we will probably trade this winter. So I have names like James Paxton, Chris Archer, Anthony Descafani, and Corey Kluber in my head right now for starting options. Preferably Archer and Paxton (Give Paxton a 3-30 deal like we have for the past 4 years). BTW Kyle Cody is a sneaky name to keep an eye on for next season if you want to keep track of some under the radar guys.
Then as a lesser need is the infield. Hopefully we just trade/release Odor and then sign Ha-Seong Kim. That’s it, that’s all we need for the infield. Oh, and signing a backup for Trevino like Suzuki.
Nevertheless, 2021 is going to be a huge building year for us. Solidify a nice little core of IKF, Gallo, and Kim before Jung and Huff come up and we can finally start looking towards the postseason in 22′.
Why is there no “All of the Above” choice for the poll?!!
Aww….no DUI news to report today? I heard you guys tried to reach Casey Stengel but he didn’t answer. I hear Lasorda’s available…
That escalated quickly….
just looks like classic Chicago fan mudslinging to me.
Enjoy the rebuild!
Haha. I was going to ask the same thing and have no hatred towards the Cubs. I think they could clean house this year. And it’s already begun with Epstein.
They better sell off and get something while they can. Their payroll is pretty high and they can quickly turn into the Giants
Bryant… a future left fielder. They should trade their catcher first. Two way catcher, they will get more for him then they would for others.
Should happen, won’t happen. They’ll claim they need to win for fans to come, so they can’t blow it up. Cubs fans will be stuck with a long rebuild and no money while ownership tries to get fans to come to games and pay for new stadium upgrades
I’d love to eat these words. I don’t see it
No money? After this season they only have like 5 guaranteed contracts on the books.
Unfortunately for them, one of those guaranteed contracts belongs to Jason Heyward. I also believe that the Cubs will lock up Anthony Rizzo to a long term contract extension after picking up his $16.5MM 2021 team option on Halloween. The Kyle Hendricks extension remains a bargain. Yu Darvish is making some serious coin through 2023, something he has finally earned after a miserable first season with the Cubs in 2018. Craig Kimbrel’s $16MM salary may be off the books in 2022 pending GF’s and his health.
And Wrigley cost at least double the expected cost and then the pandemic hit
You think they’re going to maintain a sky high payroll for a 500 team with no farm and most of the team a FA within 2 years. Good luck with that version of reality. They are going into some potentially ugly times if they make the wrong moves. It’s time to blow it up. What they have is not enough to compete with any seriousness in your attempt
It’s hard for me to fathom Tom Ricketts allowing lame duck President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein to “blow up” the Cubs this offseason. If you owned a business would you entrust a person on an expiring contract to make long term company decisions, especially with the knowledge that executive will be working for a rival soon after his departure?
Totally agree, Aaron. By most indications, especially in the current climate, the departure will be a simple hand off to Jed Hoyer. I suspect that there will be a lot of restrictions and posturing coming up in the next few years that a) Jed is probably already aware of, and b) that new blood may not want to take on (although, there only one 30 such jobs in America).
I think that this transition will be very smooth and simple. I think the going forward personnel is already at the table.
You right. They may not be in that bad of a place except every pitcher the ‘great GM’ Epstein drafted has been a bust. Otherwise their streaky offense would be enough and the window could remain open.
I see them maybe trading off 1 guy. A rebuild would wreck their fan base considering the talent they have.
In Epstein’s case, yes. I’d have more of a problem with a guy whose contract is expiring, and wouldn’t get a ‘next payday’. That’s when they get desperate and make bad decisions.
Since Theo is leaving, it is in his best interest to make his legacy as strong as possible.
Really it was a decent run (I guess) but get rid of schwarber.. He belongs on a rebuild team with less pressure to hit over .200 every year
Best rebuild team available might be…………..
…………the Cubs.
This is the time for the Cubs to avoid the fate that the Phillies dealt with throughout the last decade
Cubs don’t have a bunch of bad contracts. Heyward is the only truly bad contract they have.
You’re overvaluing Kimbrel who is truly bad.
@RunDMC he is only signed for one more year
Schwarber is my guess because he’s the most affordable to move and I think the Cubs will understandably ask for a lot for the other two, while Bryant’s contract is going to require cash to help pay down.
Contreras is probably the most valuable for the reasons listed in the posts above….
Bryant’s contract will not require cash to pay down. If it did the Cubs would non-tender him.
Bryant to ATL makes sense. Send back Riley and another piece or two. Depending on the package, the Cubs may have to send along some cash. Or Riley plus Inciarte may do it. Inciarte may be able to hit in Wrigley. Truist has too much space for his bat to play.
Wrigley Field has sold out yearly since 1981. With the exception of a small handful of decent teams most were horrible. The thought that if they rebuild again fans won’t come is ridiculous. Tom Ricketts told his father, “they sell every ticket to every game regardless of what is on the field”.
They should deal Contreras and Schwarber at minimum. Baez might turn it around. Bryant too. If not, then deal them for scraps at the deadline, but as it stands, you’re not getting much for Bryant now anyways.
Its time for the Cubs to blow up this core. Trade all pending free agents. Do what the Royals were too scared to do in 2017. How anyone can look at the last 3 seasons and think the Cubs are still contenders is nuts.
How can anybody think the Cubs can’t contend in 2021 considering they won the NL Central this past season despite subpar production from most of their core position players who still happen to be in their prime years? They might not stack up well with the Dodgers, the Braves and perhaps the Padres on paper in the NL but who exactly is the juggernaut in the Central Division next season?
They would not have won the division in a 162 game season. It was a carbon copy of previous years. Hot start and trended down as the season went on. They just had enough equity to take the division this time. Even if they make the playoffs its just a matter of which NL team they lose to.
Your take on Cubs seasons since their 2016 championship is not accurate. They actually played miserable ball during the first half of 2017 before rallying to win the division late. In 2018 they were fairly consistent from start to finish and managed to tie the Brewers for the division after 162 games before losing the tie-breaker in game 163. In 2019, Joe Maddon’s lame duck final season, the Cubs contended for the division crown all season before wilting in September.
As for 2020, your crystal ball insists MVP quality players still in their prime like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez would continue struggling over the course of a full 162 game season. Your prescience also disregards the notion that rookie skipper David Ross might actually become more effective with the added experience of another 102 games under his belt. Your wizardry also points to one of the Cardinals, Reds or Brewers playing vastly superior ball to the Cubs in a longer season based on what exactly?
excuses excuses people have decided to write the Cubs off in recent years and continue to get burnt. the team did well this year despite their offensive stalwarts tanking. a little more luck and they might have made a serious run.
Ah yes because losing a WC game at home to the Rockies, missing the playoffs and losing a home series to the Marlins is exactly what the media dynasty Cubs were supposed to do. How have people been burned picking against the Cubs? They havent won a playoff series since the NLDS 2017
Cubs have a foundation in place now to build upon. Its amazing how many are anxious for them to start their next 100 year rebuild early.
I voted for Kris Bryant as the Cub most likely to be traded this offseason. I have a strong feeling that he won’t be the only one among these 4 with Kyle Schwarber next in line to be dealt. The Cubs may want to be proactive if they are seriously considering non-tendering either before the December 2nd deadline. That said, I doubt that any of these four will be non-tendered if Theo can’t move them in the next two weeks.
I voted contreras because is a top catcher and the cubs have a great replacement in house (Caratini). They also have a top prospect coming up.
Many teams need a top catcher… the Ray’s would be a potential landing spot. They have plenty of prospects to deal and they were close to winning it all last year. Yankees of course. Even the Jay’s or Angel’s or Astros.
Its gonna be KB unfortunately. He wants to stay a cub as do the 3. Scott Boras unfortunately is his agent. We all know he’s a slimy creepy talentless manipulative little man who has wanted wanted Bryant out of Chicago since they kept him back for a whole 10 days. If it didn’t take 4 years to have the grievance trial. They likely lock him up.
They never offered him an extension. He now won’t even get 250m over 10 years. I’d be surprised if he did. Not sure what the situation is in San Diego. If he’s willing to go to I think he goes there. He when to to SD statte. And he’s close to his wife and kid.
Agree with your adjectives on Boras except for talentless He plays high stakes poker with all the big boys and he never goes bust.
Didn’t he want 200 mil for Jake from State farm Arrieta? And got 75 mil.
I’m not sure what that means. Arrieta got a great contract for his level of talent.
When Arrieta entered Free Agency. Boras was saying he desevred 200mil. I’m not saying 3/75 is bad but its far less than 200mil.
Thats an agent suggesting his clients market is higher, trying to entice teams to bid more
Or what the majority of good agents do, to some extent. You really think Boras thought Arrietta was a 200M man?!
I don’t think SD really has the budget or a place for him right now. They have a lot of money locked up in Machado, Hosmer, and Myers and they need to pay Tatis soon. Hopefully they’re extending Tatis this offseason.
With Machado at 3B and Pham/Myers in LF/RF, I don’t really know where they would put Bryant either. It only makes sense for them to get KB if they’re getting rid of Pham or Myers in order to clear both budgetary room and a position for him. I guess that’s possible, it just seems unlikely to me.
I honestly don’t see Tatis staying in San Diego beyond 2024. I’m sorry. Don’t come for me.
I’m not surprised. Just a suggestion. He’s definitely a family man first. I wouldn’t doubt if he stayed close to Vegas. At the same time. Vegas is a horrible place to raise a kid.
Bryant really has little trade value because of the way arbitration is set up. He had his best years early in arb, and because arbitration builds on the previous year, Bryant is projected for a massive salary.
I think Schwarber is most likely to be traded simply based on a few facts:
1.) his advanced stats suggest he was significantly better than his 2020 showing which means GM’s are more likely to see value in him.
2.) his price tag is going to be no where near as high as Bryants
3.) the Cubs outfield was horrid against left handed pitching. Trading Bryant will not help the Cubs southpaw troubles where replacing Schwarber with a right hand hitting outfielder that can hit lefties would.
As people have mentioned, Bryant is getting too expensive to really trade coming off a down year. Sure a lot of GM’s would take KB at 20 million but not a lot are going to off pay him 20 million plus a top prospect let alone a prospect package. Odds are, the Cubs will see more value hanging onto him and extending him a QO of trade him mid-season vs. accepting what teams are willing to give up in trade before the season begins.
Contreras will have a ton of interest but Realmuto and McCann are both on the open market, McCann isn’t at Contreras’s level but teams would be looking at giving up a package similar to what the Phillies gave up to get JT.
Baez won’t go anywhere unless it’s a mid-season move. We’ve seen Baez at his worst and when he isn’t hitting, he is still providing extreme value at short stop.
I’m going to go out on a limb and think the Cubs could trade Rizzo. I’m not sure what their feelings are with his back as far as long term contract extension is concerned. Every swinging D Cub fan wants him extended but his back could be a strong reason as to why the Cubs have not pulled that trigger. Lets not forget, he struggled with his back in spring training, then during the Covid shut down he lost a lot of weight but still struggled with his back…
Lastly, I’m not sure what Darvish’s status is as far as his NTC, too many mixed reports between him having full NT protection and limited NT protection but as many pointed out, his value is extremely high and based on what Bauer most likely will get and what Cole got, his contract has surplus value. The Cubs need pitching but without a true Ace on the market outside of Bauer (plus Bauer’s history of being difficult) teams may be willing to make the Cubs an offer they cannot refuse.
Likely hood of trade:
Schwarber IMO is pretty much guaranteed
Not likely but will listen category:
Rizzo/Darvish/Contreras
Not enough value to be moved:
Bryant/Kimbrel
Not going anywhere:
Baez/Hendricks/Happ
Bold prediction: IF Bryant goes to the Braves, it will not to be to take over 3B. He’ll be in LF.
But I don’t see the Braves forking out both the money and prospect capital to get him. Any chance the Cubs would take Ender of our hands with a prospect or two for Bryant? Help offset that bad salary for us????
I don’t think it’d that expensive to get Bryant if Atlanta ate the full salary. Kyle Wright and some type of lottery ticket type prospect might do it? Not only would the Cubs get the young pitching but they’d have the money available from Bryant to upgrade somewhere if they want.
Now I’ve seen it suggested the Braves include Ender or have the Cubs pay down salary, and those things would drive the prospect price up significantly.
Theo being a lame duck makes its easier to trade or nob-tender any of these guys. He becomes the scapegoat if it goes badly.
I don’t anyone other than Contreras has real trade value in this economic environment. No one being willing to pick up Brad Hand signals a lot of fiscal limitations. The Cubs aren’t going anywhere significant and it’s a bold move to non-tender Bryant,but I’d do it in this unique set of circumstances. Trade Schwaber for what ever is available and replace him with low cost FA. Get their real value from Contreras and I’m thinking NYY hear. Could even get their LF replacement. Somthing like Contreras and Baez for Frazier plus makes sense for both teams. It’s a palatable way to move Baez when he doesn’t have a ton of value on his own.
I don’t see them keeping Bryant or Schwarber. After doing pretty much nothing last year, there’s pressure for a more aggressive offseason and the Cubs have several holes to fill in the roster. Their core may have underperformed last year, but I don’t think it’s enough as is to get them that far in the playoffs and, even if it were, it’s getting expensive and contracts are going to start expiring. They can either trade off pieces while they can or let them walk for nothing or a QO pick. With no one else set up to dominate the NL Central next year, they can afford to take a small step back to get a little more talent in their farm system and gear up for another window while still being the favorites to win the division.
Boy, when things are bad and the perception of the team is terrible, even MLBTR piles on. Couldn’t you have posed the question as “most likely to be moved” or “most likely to be traded”, not “most likely to get rid of.”?
Kind of like the Jello with the cat food in it from “Christmas Vacation”.
And right around the holidays—-way too tough a crowd with everything that is going on in the world.
It’s just the reality of the future of this team. Accept it or deny it, these are the facts
Agree with your adjectives on Boras except for talentless He plays high stakes poker with all the big boys and he never goes bust.
Based on the fact they have very little if anything to build on in the minors, they’ll probably have to trade all four and then some just to get some worthwhile prospects in their system. They must get young pitching back in these trades to at least interrupt the cycle of constantly having to sign FAs and trading for SPs year in, year out.
I am totally against moving either Baez or Contreras. The heart of any baseball team is it’s up the middle defense. Baez runs hot and cold offensively but he’s rock solid at shortstop.
Contreras hasn’t even hit his prime yet and he’s one of the best catchers in the game.
In my opinion, Bryant and Schwarber the two most likely to go.
Contreras will be turning 29 in May. What are you talking about? Do you think catchers enter their primes in their 30’s?? Must be another Cubs fan talking
I wouldn’t trade anyone. The Cubs are good enough to be a contender. But if they traded off more than one low-level piece, then it might make sense to trade everyone. And Bryant, Schwarber and Baez aren’t clearing the table for them.
If it was me, I’d keep everyone and hold my nose. If they contend, great. But the handwriting could be on the wall as soon as late-May, and then I would play month-by-month.
If I were a wagering man, which I am, I’d bet that Schwarber, Bryant, and Baez’s value will be just as strong on June 30th as it is today.
Epstein has officially stepped down as president of the Chicago Cubs. Even before this breaking news they were very clear and willing to trade any and all veterans and have already said they were looking to seriously cut payroll. Any cubs fans who are anticipating the organization to sign any massive free agents this off-season will be greatly disappointed. Really sounds like they want to blow the whole thing up and start from scratch and given how bear their farm system is seems like the most logical step. Would not surprise me if their 2021 lineup appeared entirely different than the 2020. This could be a team in 2021 more interested in getting a top-five draft selection then competing for a championship. Which could be a huge reason why Epstein pretty much said “screw this! I’m out“.
With Clevenger going down, would the Padres be interested in Darvish? Darvish for Adrian Morejon, Luis Patino, and Hudson Head. Then the Padres legitimately compete with the Dodgers for the NL West.
Contreras to the Rays for Shane Baz and Xavier Edwards.
Then, the Cubs bring everyone else back for one last try at a division title (they aren’t legitimately competing for a World Series berth even with everyone back, as they are not better than the Braves, Dodgers, and Padres anyways, so they’re only seriously competing for a division title).
Bryant and Schwarber walk (or a traded at the deadline); extend Baez and Rizzo (possibly Bryant if he looks more like the 2016 / 2017 Bryant), and they have a rotation of Hendricks, Patino, Alzolay, Baz, and Marquez in 2022. Looks good on paper!!